RADIO
Welcome to Week 18 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire pitchers. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.
Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help with all of the best streams for the week.
These fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups are for the week of August 8 – August 14, looking at players below ~50% rostered for ESPN, Yahoo!, or Fantrax. Rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, August 6.
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Know Your Scoring System
You know what I'm going to say, right? You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.
For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Trea Turner being a top-five hitter versus a top-25 hitter.
If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.
You'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system if you look above. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes, you can get away with some "close enough" calls, i.e. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.
Week 18: Waiver Wire Leaderboards
All charts are updated before Sunday's games, on stats and ownerships, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version. Players on overall leaderboards are ordered according to their current Roster% on Yahoo.
*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)
The 21-Day Leaderboard, Presented by Hansel
Overall Leaderboards
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Best Choices
George Kirby, SEA (@ TEX) - Last week's cover boy didn't disappoint in a dominant performance against the Angels on Saturday, striking out eight batters over six innings, allowing just one run. Texas has been a better offense in the summer vs RHP but is still middling - the Rangers are 18th in wOBA vs RHP since June 1 but 27th for the season, with a K% that is 23rd. And against four-seamers and sliders from RHP (Kirby's two primary pitches), Texas is a bottom-three offense by wOBA and is 29th in SwStr% against both.
James Kaprielian, OAK (vs LAA, @ HOU) - Did you know that in six starts since June 1, Kaprielian has only allowed more than 1 ER once (5 IP - 3 IP vs TEX), running a 1.89 ERA over 33.1 IP? He has. But I'm still not streaming him against Houston who's been a top-5 offense virtually all season. But Kaprielian was one of "Best Choices" last week with a start against the Angels and the repeat in Week 18 is no different.
Madison Bumgarner, ARI (vs PIT) - Bumgarner has been inconsistent all season but a start against the Pirates and vs LHP ineptness is definitely a go. Pittsburgh is 26th in wOBA and 28th in xwOBA vs LHP, with the 2nd-highest K%.
Nick Lodolo, CIN (vs CHC) - Lodolo was cruising in Friday's start against the Brewers but got lit up by home runs in the 4th, allowing a leadoff dong to Andrew McCutchen before hanging a two-strike curveball to Keston Hiura. Note: If you allow a left-handed home run to Hiura, you may be forced to reconsider your life choices. Lodolo has a good chance to reevaluate against the Cubs, who are 28th in wOBA vs LHP since the start of June, with the 5th-lowest xwOBA, and the league's highest K%.
Edward Cabrera, MIA (@ PHI) - Cabrera was totally dominant in his return to Miami's rotation, going five hitless innings vs the Cubs and striking out eight batters. Philadelphia is a much tougher test (vs RHP since June 1: 11th in wOBA, 10th in xwOBA) but Cabrera is quickly approaching a level of trust that most rookies don't earn.
Yusei Kikuchi, SEA (@ BAL, vs CLE) - Kikuchi is coming off of back-to-back solid starts (9 IP - 3.00 ERA - 10 K), albeit short ones. This is a sneaky, little two-step, as Baltimore is a bottom-10 team vs LHP, with a bottom-three K%, while Cleveland basically stinks vs LHP - the Guardians are 29th in wOBA and 30the in xwOBA.
Jose Suarez, LAA (@ OAK) - Oakland, as mentioned over and over again, is all sorts of terrible, and is a bottom-three team vs LHP. But Suarez might set up extra nice vs the Athletics if the changeup is working.
Mitch Keller, PIT (@ ARI) - Keller has been a completely different pitcher since switching to the sinker, and a matchup with Arizona sets up good for him. The Diamondbacks are 24th in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA since the start of June.
Keegan Thompson, CHC (vs WSH, @ CIN) - Thompson has gotten rocked in two of this last three starts, allowing 5 ER in each, over a total of 9 IP. But bad outings against the Mets and Cardinals aren't anything to be ashamed of and the opponents won't be as scary in Week 18. I'm not rushing to start him in Cincinnati but that's mostly park-related, however, Washington was bad even before they trade their two best hitters.
Patrick Corbin, WSH (vs SD) - This was just a test to make sure you're paying attention. Corbin can't be started against anyone and his contract is quickly moving into the "Worst of All-Time discussion. If you missed it, Corbin and his 7.02 ERA allowed six earned runs in 0.2 IP against the Phillies on Saturday, good for an 81.00 ERA - the second time he's had an 81.00 ERA in his past three starts. Also, Washington is paying him $23 million but just traded Juan Soto and Josh Bell, after previously letting Bryce Harper walk.
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Next Choices
Justin Steele, CHC (vs WSH) - He doesn't often go deep but Steele can put up some serious whiffs, most recently striking out 10 Marlins over 4.2 IP. He'll take on the Nationals, who are 23rd in wOBA but are 1st in K%. At least for the year, that is, as they now have the 10th-best K% since June 1 and no longer have Juan Soto and Josh Bell.
Dane Dunning, TEX (vs SEA) - Seattle has been a middling offense vs RHP since the start of June and Dunning is on a pretty decent run, posting a 3.35 ERA over his last seven starts. Dunning last faced Seattle on July 26, allowing 2 ER in 5 IP and striking out five.
Adrian Sampson, CHC (@ CIN) - Sampson just got roughed up by the Giants (4 IP - 4 ER - 6 K) but gets a softer matchup against the Reds (vs RHP: 25th in wOBA, 28th in xwOBA, 24th in K%). However, Great American Bandbox doesn't do any pitchers any favors and Sampson will need to keep his home run impression (0.62 HR/9) going.
Chris Flexen, SEA (@ TEX) - Texas has been better vs RHP since the start of June (18th in wOBA/xwOBA) but are still 27th in wOBA against them for the season, with the 8th-highest K%.
Jordan Lyles, BAL (vs TOR, @ TB) - Starting Lyles vs TOR will not work out well but rolling him out in Tampa Bay isn't a bad idea after back-to-back solid outings by the right-hander. Incidentally, one of those two good starts was against these same Rays, with Lyles picking up the Win on 5.2 shutout innings.
Spencer Watkins, BAL (@ TB) - Since allowing 7 ER in 3.2 IP on May 11, Watkins is 4-0 over eight starts, with a 2.84 ERA over 38 IP. He'll have a chance to keep the train rolling vs a Tampa Bay offense that has had a bottom-four K% vs RHP all year and a bottom-10 wOBA. However, two of his worst most recent starts have come against the Rays - he allowed 3 ER in 5.1 IP on July 26, and on May 22 he allowed 3 ER without getting an out, leaving after getting hit by a line drive.
Aaron Civale, CLE (@ DET) - Civale is expected to make his return from the IL (sprained wrist) for a matchup in Detroit, one of baseball's worst offenses vs RHP. I've been out on Civale (and his 6.17 ERA/1.46 WHIP) all season and will continue to be so but a right-handed matchup against the Tigers is almost always feasible.
Jake Odorizzi, ATL (@ MIA) - Odorizzi was fine in his Atlanta debut against the Mets (4.2 IP - 2 ER - 4 K) and should have a much easier test going to the Marlins, who are 25th in wOBA vs RHP since the start of June.
Josiah Gray, WSH (@ CHC) - Gray just got rocked by the Philadelphia Dongs (4 IP - 6 ER - 4 HR) and will have to bounce back against a Cubs offense that doesn't have great overall numbers vs RHP for the season but that has been much improved since the start of June.
Tyler Alexander, DET (vs CLE, @ CHW) - Alexander built himself up to 5 IP in his last start in Minnesota, allowing 2 ER and striking out five in a loss. A start for the lefty vs CHW isn't ideal but one versus Cleveland is certainly playable - the Guardians are 29th in wOBA and 30th in xwOBA vs LHP.
Kris Bubic, KC (vs CHW) - How did Bubic do over his past four starts in an AL East smorgasbord (@ TOR, vs TB, @ NYY, vs BOS)? A 2.42 ERA over 26 IP, with 20 K. Exactly like everyone predicted. You'd think a matchup with the White Sox would now be a cakewalk but be careful because Chicago (6th in wOBA, 9th in xwOBA) is much better vs LHP than they are against righties.
Paul Blackburn, OAK (vs LAA) - Starts against the Angels are generally safe but it wasn't in Blackburn's last outing, as the right-hander allowed 4 ER in 5 IP, allowing four solo home runs. But I'll still take my chances against one of baseball's worst offenses.
Chris Archer, MIN (@ LAA) - Archer bounced back with eight strikeouts against the Tigers after allowing 10 ER total in his past two starts and gets an Angels team that is one of baseball's worst vs RHP since the start of June. Don't expect much (IE 4-5 IP) and you likely won't be disappointed.
Dylan Bundy, MIN (@ LAA) - Bundy can Bundy at any time but the Angels can almost always be streamed against.
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Desperate Choices
Aaron Ashby, MIL (@ STL) - We got the bad Ashby in his last start, with the left-hander walking five batters and allowing 4 ER in 4.2 IP in a loss against Cleveland. I'm not betting on a bounce-back versus a St. Louis offense that crushes lefties - the Cardinals are 3rd in wOBA and 8th in xwOBA vs LHP, with the 6th-lowest K%.
Alex Cobb/Jakob Junis, SF (@ SD) - I really like both of these starters but left-handed matchups with the new-and-improved Padres were scary even before they acquired Juan Soto/Josh Bell, as San Diego has been crazy eights against them since the start of June - 8th in wOBA, 8th in xwOBA, 8th in K%, and 8th in BB%.
J.T. Brubaker, PIT (@ ARI) - Brubaker has been incredibly inconsistent all season but could get back on track against an Arizona team that roughed him up on June 3 (4 IP - 5 ER - 3 K) but is 24th in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA since the start of June.
Braxton Garrett, MIA (@ PHI, vs ATL) - My love for Garrett is well documented but this is not a two-step that you should want to mess with. Atlanta has been a top-3 offense vs LHP all season, while Philadelphia isn't that far behind - and just won't stop hitting home runs.
Drew Smyly, CHC (@ CIN) - Smyly just dominated the Marlins in a stream that at least one person saw coming ; ). But honestly, aren't you already set up for success when starting with "vs MIA"? The Reds are a tougher test, as the start comes at their home bandbox and they've been 8th in wOBA vs LHP since the start of June.
Graham Ashcraft, CIN (vs CHC) - Ashcraft has a 49 APR over the past three weeks but good things tend to happen when you get to face the Marlins twice. The Cubs offense, while not great, is not the Marlins and sits in the middle of the pack vs RHP in wOBA, xwOBA, and K% since the start of June.
Marco Gonzales, SEA (@ TEX) - Gonzales has a 6.50 ERA over the past three weeks and faces a Texas offense that is much better vs LHP, than they are vs RHP, carrying a top-10 wOBA against. The Rangers do have the second-worst K% against lefties since the start of June but that probably won't help Gonzales and his 8.9% K-BB%.
Ryan Yarbrough, TB (@ MIL) - The Brewers are much worse vs LHP (25th in wOBA, 23rd in xwOBA, 26th in K%) and Yarbrough has been serviceable over his last four starts (19.1 IP - 3.26 ERA - 15 K). But he also tops out at 5-6 IP and occasionally has a big-time home run problem. That's a dicey combo for a team with Milwaukee's firepower and home ballpark.
Mitch White, TOR (vs CLE) - Maybe this would be worth a spin if Cleveland wasn't so whiff-stingy vs RHP, posting the lowest K% against them all season. But without strikeouts, you're basically counting on White going long enough to pick up a Win bonus and that's a narrow path to walk.
Jesus Luzardo, MIA (vs ATL) - I know it's easy to get all antsy in your pantsies when someone exciting comes back from the IL but this is not the start to see if Luzardo will continue his early-season success - Atlanta has been a top-three offense vs LHP all season, with a top-10 K%.
Jose Quintana, STL (@ COL) - Coors + Rockies really good vs LHP (5th in wOBA, 5th in K%) = Please don't do this. Math!
Relief Pitchers Waiver Wire
Unless you're in a very deep league and/or have a lot of dedicated RP-only slots, most of the relievers you're going to want are the ones who are closers, have a chance to close, or are elite setup guys. I do mean elite because most scoring structures are weighted in a way that relievers almost necessarily have to get saves to be valuable. Although, long relievers whose usage you can reliably predict, can be useful in leagues with daily moves. But for a majority of leagues, sticking to closers is the way to go.
With that in mind, here are the best relievers on the wire for Week 18, ordered by Yahoo roster%:
Closers (and co-Closers) on the Wire
Felix Bautista, BAL - The flamethrowing Bautista has the job to himself, picking up a Save on Friday. And as well, he should - Bautista has a 1.77 ERA and 0.90 WHIP for the year, with a 27.6% K-BB% and a 30.8% CSW%.
Rowan Wick, CHC - With the trade of David Robertson to Philadelphia, the closing job has returned to Rowan Wick, who has a 4.23 ERA for the season but a 0.00 ERA over the last three weeks. If only the Cubs didn't stink.
Alexis Diaz/Hunter Strickland, CIN - Still looks to be a straight two-fer in Cincinnati, with Strickland picking up a Save on Monday and Diaz grabbing his own on Tuesday.
Tanner Scott, MIA - It's apparently still Scott's job but it was Dylan Floro getting the call for Miami's only Save opportunity on Friday - he blew it.
Kyle Finnegan, WSH - He's still listed as the closer but he was on for the Hold in Washington's only opportunity on Tuesday, with Victor Arano eventually blowing the Save chance.
Committees on the Wire
Arizona Diamondbacks - We've moved into committee land following yet another terrible outing by Mark Melancon, with Ian Kennedy and Joe Mantiply now in the mix. Kennedy picked up two Saves and a Loss last week, while Mantiply had four appearances and a Hold.
Los Angeles Angels - The Angels move to a hodgepodge committee following the trade of Raisel Iglesias, with Jimmy Herget and Jose Quidjada both picking up Saves this week, while Ryan Tepera should also be in the mix. Avoid.
Oakland Athletics - A.J. Puk (Thursday) and Zach Jackson (Friday) both picked up Saves last week But Dany Jimenez and his 11 Saves for the year just got back from the IL, picking up a Hold on Thursday. I suspect this will remain a mix-and-match situation, not ideal for a team as unlikely as Oakland to afford many Save opportunities.
Pittsburgh Pirates - With David Bednar on the IL, it's up to Will Crowe (Save on Tuesday) and Yerry De Los Santos (Blown Save on Wednesday). Nothing to see here, move along.
Tampa Bay Rays - Colin Poche and Jason Adam both picked up Saves last week but Pete Fairbanks and Brooks Raley will remain in the mix. As always, avoid this guessing game.
Texas Rangers - Only Jonathan Hernandez got an opportunity last week (Save on Thursday) but Brock Burke and Matt Moore are also options.
Random Save Chances O' the Week
Colin McHugh, ATL - Blew a Save on Wednesday
Keegan Akin, BAL - Picked up a Save on Monday
Alex Colome, COL - Blew a Save on Friday
Joe Jimenez, DET - Blew a Save on Friday
Alex Lange, DET - Blew a Save on Monday
Taylor Clarke, KC - Blew a Save on Thursday
Dylan Floro, MIA - Blew a Save on Friday
Jake McGee, MIL - Blew a Save on Wednesday
Brad Boxberger, MIL - Blew a Save on Thursday
Matt Bush, MIL - Blew a Save on Thursday
Griffin Jax, MIN - Blew a Save on Tuesday
Emilio Pagan, MIN - Blew a Save on Thursday
Michael Fulmer, MIN - Blew a Save on Monday
Erik Swanson, SEA - Save on Saturday
Andres Munoz, SEA - Save on Tuesday
Victor Arano, WSH - Blew a Save on Tuesday.
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