RADIO
Hello RotoBallers and thanks for joining me for the 2020 PGA Championship! In this article you will find my four favorite overall DraftKings DFS lineup plays for this week's PGA tournament.
The 'Core Four' will usually be spread across different DraftKings price points, but every week in PGA DFS is different and this article will reflect that by trying to give you an overall outlook of how the slate is shaping up.
Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
2020 PGA Championship Notes
BANG!!! After a couple weeks of struggling, the Core Four came up huge at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational last week! Our top play, Justin Thomas, took down the title in Memphis, while our other "big gun", Brooks Koepka, scored a T2. Chez Reavie was a monster for us as a value play and posted a T6 at just $6.7k, and Billy Horschel was the "weak link" with a still-pretty-darn-good T25 effort.
I listed each member of last week's Core Four because I actually really love three of them again this week (sorry Billy Ho) and want their names to be burned into your brain, as JT, Brooks, and Chez all have an excellent chance of playing well in the PGA Championship. Though I would love to run it back and have both JT and Brooks in this week's Core Four, you unfortunately won't see that (even though I think both have a tremendous chance to win) due to salary concerns. As with most majors, DraftKings pricing is relatively soft this week, however there isn't a ton of players that I love south of the $7k price point...hence no way to fit both JT and Brooks in this week's core.
What we do find on the DK salary scale is TONS to love in the mid-to-upper price range, as well as a couple of values that really stick out! This week's core comes with the reminder that you should look to get unique when possible, without compromising the integrity of your entire roster build, because if you are playing the Milly Maker you'll have to outrun 175k-plus entrants. That's the main reason you won't find one of my favorite plays of the week, Xander Schauffele, included in the Core Four, as the X-Man is currently projected to be the most popular option on the slate according to our RotoBaller PGA Research Station ownership projections. My favorites are listed below and I would also reiterate that you guys check out the "Just Missed" List that I've started including at the bottom of the write-up, as it's a great resource to use when building multiple lineups and is especially important on a major-championship week like this. Thanks for joining me once again, let's tee it up!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
Brooks Koepka - DraftKings: $11,100
When I discussed the WGC-St. Jude and Justin Thomas in this article last week, I mentioned that I liked to include the person that I believe will win the tournament in my core builds for WGC events. Well, the same holds true for me when it comes to major championships, which is why I felt compelled to squeeze Brooks Koepka into this PGA Championship Core Four.
It's been a rocky road for Koepka this season, as his game has suffered - probably more than anyone expected - from the lingering effects of a knee injury. We've seen Brooks make more starts than usual recently and I believe it's been in an attempt to play himself into shape for the majors. It appears to be working, as we saw an encouraging ball-striking performance at the 3M Open two weeks ago that led to an explosive opening-round 62 and eventual runner-up finish in Memphis last week.
We know that Brooks "flips the switch" in big events and I view last week's performance as a great indicator that his game will be ready for this week's PGA Championship. We expect this TPC Harding Park layout to require both distance and accuracy, as well as sharp iron play. Koepka is one of the best in the game off the tee and gained 8.4 strokes on Approach at the WGC - his best statistical performance with his irons since his victory in the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black.
I almost wish he didn't play so well last week, as it has resulted in a higher DFS price tag and more ownership, but as you'll learn in any sappy rom-com movie that your wife or girlfriend forces you to watch, "you don't get to choose who you fall in love with". Brooks has had my heart in major championships for the last two years and I'm not giving up on him now.
Collin Morikawa - DraftKings: $8,600
There are probably a couple of legitimate reasons to not play Collin Morikawa this week, with his inexperience in major championships and spotty short game being chief among them. I've weighed those concerns very carefully, but ultimately decided that the upside that comes with Morikawa - especially at this reasonable price tag - far outweighs any negatives.
It's true that he's extremely young (23-years-old) and inexperienced in major championships (a T35 in last year's U.S. Open his is lone major start), but you know what? So was Jordan Spieth and so was Tiger Woods. Now, I'm not saying that Morikawa will have the same success in majors as those two, but I do believe he's a similarly-prodigious type of talent. He's the best young iron player I've seen since Tiger and ranks second in this ultra-elite field in SG: Approach over 50 measured rounds (roughly the length of his pro career), in addition to grading out third in SG: T2G and first in SG: Ball Striking over the same time period. Put simply, we don't see players come on to the PGA Tour and strike the ball this well for a sustained period of time unless they are extremely special.
In addition to his obvious physical talent, Morikawa has demonstrated the type of mental toughness that's needed to win major championships. He bounced back from a heartbreaking loss at the Charles Schwab Challenge to win the Workday Open at Muirfield Village in dramatic fashion...overcoming a three-shot deficit on the back nine and answering an unbelievable birdie putt by Justin Thomas in the playoff by draining a 20-plus footer himself. Morikawa is also a California kid that's familiar with TPC Harding Park and competed in an NCAA event on the layout in 2018 (he finished tied for fifth btw). Like with the aforementioned Koepka, I can give you guys several statistical reasons to play Morikawa this week, but I also just believe in the kid.
Tony Finau - DraftKings: $7,900
Wouldn't it be something if Tony Finau's long-awaited second career victory came in a major? I don't know if my guy will be able to pull off that feat, but I'm very confident that Big Tony will be able to play well in this week's PGA Championship.
Finau's game is built for major championship layouts, as evidenced by his 12 made cuts in 15 career major starts. He keeps getting better on the game's biggest stages as well...Finau has posted three top-five finishes over his last three starts in majors.
His length (averaging 308.0 yds driving distance) and ability to score on long Par-4s (first in the field in SG: Par-4s of 450-500 yards) will both be huge assets this week at TPC Harding Park. It also doesn't hurt that his best putting output has historically been on Bentgrass putting surfaces. In DFS we also must consider a player's price and Finau offers unquestioned top-five upside at just $7.9k.
Tommy Fleetwood - DraftKings: $7,700
The last piece of this week's Core Four is a play that I couldn't pass up when considering salary. Tommy Fleetwood is one of several European-based pros that elected to ease back into competition after the COVID-19 layoff. The Englishman has only teed it up twice since the restart, a knock-the-rust-off missed cut in Minnesota and a middling T35 in Memphis last week.
Last week's result might not blow us away, but there's enough there to get me on board in this spot, as Fleetwood gained almost three strokes on Approach and capped off the tournament by firing a final-round 65.
Do I wish Tommy had played more? Yes...but I also feel like he's underpriced due to the fact that he hasn't. His game is major-championship quality - he's logged a top-five finish in a major in each of the last three years - and he's familiar with this TPC Harding Park layout (made a quarter-final run as an unknown Euro in the 2015 WGC Match Play). We're certainly leaning more on long-term form than recent form with Fleetwood here, but the price and his major-championship pedigree makes the gamble worth it for me in this spot.
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The "Just Missed" List
Justin Thomas- ($11,300) JT was my "1B" to Koepka's "1A" this week and I wouldn't blame you if you wanted to swap them out due to personal preference. Thomas is perhaps the world's best player at the moment and his complete tee-to-green game is precisely what I'm targeting this week at TPC Harding Park.
Xander Schauffele - ($10,000) It basically breaks my heart that Xander isn't in the Core Four, because I absolutely love him this week and recommend that you play him. He didn't make it for salary reasons (I couldn't make both Brooks AND Xander work, so I was forced to choose between the two) and because his ownership is skyrocketing as we get close to lineup lock.
Patrick Cantlay - ($9,400) It feels like Cantlay is sorta just gliding along under the radar, which I kinda love. His game is PERFECT for this layout and though his recent outings have been a bit more volatile than we're accustomed to with him, he has all the tools needed to win this tournament.
Daniel Berger - ($8,800) I've been in on Berger this entire year and see no reason to hop off now. He's arguably been the most consistent player in golf in 2020 and this layout should suit him well.
Viktor Hovland - ($8,500) I only allowed myself one young gun in this week's Core Four, but I will have tons of exposure to Viktor Hovland. He's played well in the only two major starts of his career and has been a ball-striking beast since the restart. His ability to hit it long and straight off the tee, while also being elite with his irons, is exactly what's needed on this layout. Can we please get a hot putter one time?!?
Jason Day - ($8,400) I've been off Jason Day for a long time, but admit I'm intrigued by both his recent results (great across the board statistically in his last three starts) and his impressive major-championship resume. I like Day best on tough courses and this layout should play pretty difficult.
Tyrrell Hatton - ($8,000) Hatton's most recent start also happened to be his worst, as he lost strokes in every area last week in Memphis. If you're willing to throw that out the window, his long-term form (and results) indicate that he's very underpriced at just $8k.
Jordan Spieth - ($7,700) Not a true core consideration for me, but Spieth is an intriguing wild-card at just 7% projected ownership. He's gained strokes with his irons in two-straight starts and has played his best golf in majors over the last couple years. Could surprise if he can somehow hit fairways (that's a huge IF).
Chez Reavie - ($7,400) I couldn't make myself put Chez Reavie in the Core Four for a major, but it would absolutely be statistically justified, as Reavie has been on a tremendous stretch over the past month. His PGA Championship record is surprisingly strong, he posted a T3 in the U.S. Open last year, he traditionally plays well in California, and his price is a value.
Win Big With RotoBaller
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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