Ronald Acuna Rankings Debate - Comparing RotoBaller's Rankers

We continue our series of articles debating the overall ranking of some of the most fantasy-relevant players of the 2018 baseball season. This time around, it's a player that has seen some of the biggest ADP variation among all outfielders in the league.

RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.

Today, we discuss Atlanta Braves rookie Ronald Acuna. Nick Mariano is a believer in the young phenom, whereas Pierre Camus isn't ready to take the leap. Let's get ready to rumble!

2018 Draft Rankings Debate - Ronald Acuna

Nick Mariano's Ranking: #149 overall

Let me start out by saying that I’ve brought my Acuna fever down a bit since we submitted this round of rankings, but I still have him within the top 150 and am one of the highest staffers on him.

I’m a bit worried that this debate could easily boil down to “I believe Acuna will get 450 plate appearances this year” versus “I believe he’ll only get 300...or maybe fewer.” I don’t want to put words in Pierre’s mouth and assume his reasons for being bearish, but it’d be disingenuous to not address his playing time scenarios.

We can all likely find common ground that Acuna will not be in Atlanta’s starting lineup on Opening Day. We’ve seen it with every top prospect to grace the game lately, as teams work the system to gain an extra year of control over a budding star. The question becomes whether he is called up after a few weeks, or sometime in June after the Super 2 deadline has passed.

As I’ve said in other pieces, the 100-125 pick range is where I’m okay taking on risk, and a 20/20 phenom like Acuna is worthy of being that risk pick. Steamer projects him for 431 PAs, while ZiPS is giving him 594. Those represent the minimum and maximum PAs, but all other major ones (Depth Charts, The Bat, ATC) give him at least 530, with everyone agreeing on ranges between 15-20 HRs and 20-30 SBs with an average in the .270s.

Maybe it’s the having roughly 500 PAs above High-A ball that has you leery? I’d get that, but he’s been absolutely dominant every step of the way and hitting 16-for-39 (.410/.511/.745) with four homers and four steals in Spring Training is only confirming that. No, Spring Training isn’t “changing” my views on him, but I feel a tad more comfortable in leaning into the growth shown last season. Is it that he’s only 20? That’s cool, and it’s fair point given the comps to Kris Bryant and his ascension considering KB was 23, but I’m just judging what’s on the field.

Yes, he will need to show he can adjust once big-league scouts and pitchers start seeing him every single day. But he’s displayed elite talent and an ability to adapt/learn about new surroundings very quickly as he’s risen through the ranks. My biggest worry doesn’t even directly involve him. The Braves might slow-roll Acuna because Dansby Swanson’s performance has given GM Alex Anthopoulos PTSD. That’s right, Dansby, this is your fault!

One other little nugget: In today’s world where everyone wants the “next big thing”, Acuna would be one of the biggest trade chips you could possess. It doesn’t sway my rankings much, but I do consider these angles. The bottom line is that you want this talent on your team.

Pierre Camus' Ranking: #259 overall

Basically this debate boils down to the fact that Acuna may not even reach 300 plate appearances this year. But for the sake of argument, let's also assume he may not immediately come into the league and dominate right away either.

I won't debate Acuna's talent, because that would be downright silly. He's not only the top-ranked prospect in all of baseball by many publications, but he's tearing it up in spring training with a .432/.519/.728 slash line, four homers, 11 RBI, and four steals in 44 at-bats. If you're playing in a dynasty league, empty your wallets or reach as high as you want for him. I can't say I'd do the same, but I certainly wouldn't blame you.

This isn't a dynasty debate, however, and we have to consider what he'll bring to the table in 2018 alone. Let's start with playing time, which is sure to be the biggest factor.

The Braves aren't a team with a glut of talented outfielders blocking potential playing time. RosterResource currently lists Preston Tucker as the starting left fielder. Really? How could Acuna not start the season with the big club? Easy - they want him around longer. Without getting into the details of the Super 2 deadline, just know that it would behoove the Braves long-term to let Acuna crush in the minors for two months rather than find his way in the majors. If this were a contending ballclub, it might be a different story, but the Braves have little chance to be a playoff team and their youth in the pitching rotation reflects that. They have to think about next year if they want to do right by their fans.

As Nick alluded to, the Braves might be gun shy about throwing Acuna into the fire right away regardless of service time. Watching players like Dansby Swanson, Rio Ruiz, Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb, and others struggle mightily after being rushed up too soon should give them pause, after all. Acuna could be the exception, but he has only one season of experience above Single-A and less than 1,000 total at-bats at any level in the minors.

Can't-miss prospects don't always hit right away, as you may know. Remember last year's #1 prospect, second baseman Yoan Moncada? What if he parlays some actual MLB experience into a breakout season? He's available nearly 20 spots later, according to NFBC ADP data, and plays a position in which it's much more difficult to find offensive production.

I'm not betting against Acuna turning into a stud at some point, because everything I see points in that direction. I'm just not willing to sacrifice a dependable OF2 in this year's draft for half a season of possible production.

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