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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The Players Championship

C'mon Rory, you gotta win that tournament! Ok...had to get that out of my system. My decision to burn Rory McIlroy at the Arnold Palmer Invitational sorta worked, as he nabbed a top-five and $330k for me. However, it was a tournament that was very winnable for him and that's what you're looking for when you deploy a player of his caliber in a OAD contest...wins.

What makes Rory's inability to close the door even more frustrating for me is the fact that both Spencer and Josh had an underwhelming week at Bay Hill (at least by their lofty standards), as Tony Finau missed the cut for Spencer, while Josh's pick of Xander Schauffele recorded a solid, but not spectacular, T25 that was good for a little over $72k. So, while I view last week as something of an opportunity missed, I was able to cross the $2 million mark and close the gap on Spencer and Josh.

This week is a HUGE event for this competition, as The Players Championship has massive payouts and is also one of the most difficult tournaments of the year to predict. It's gonna be a fun week, let's see who the guys are rolling with!

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections

Joe Nicely - Hideki Matsuyama

Alternate - Matt Kuchar

The comeback train continues to roll! After a mini slump, I've put together back-to-back top-fives over the last two weeks with the help of Tommy Fleetwood and Rory McIlroy. At least I'm back within shouting distance of Spencer and Josh with a huge week at The Players ahead.

This is such a fun week for both DFS play and OAD contests, because anything can happen at TPC Sawgrass. This is a course that was literally designed to not favor any particular type of player and we've seen golfers of all different stripes emerge victorious at The Players over the years. For that reason, things are absolutely wide open this week and I left no stone unturned when debating which direction to go with this OAD pick. I considered going straight to the top of the board with a player like Justin Thomas, but ultimately decided against using JT here due to the natural unpredictability of the event. A player in hot form was also in serious consideration, as I came agonizingly close to pulling the trigger on Bryson DeChambeau, but assumed he would also be high on the list for Spencer and Josh. I also debated just going extremely conservative with a player in the Matt Kuchar or Ian Poulter "experienced, cagey veteran" mold, though I felt I was sacrificing a bit too much upside with either of those guys. If you are in a large OAD contest like the one at Gup's Corner there is also definitely some merit to taking a swing with a dark horse like Daniel Berger.

Ultimately, I landed on a player that's a consistently-great ball striker and has a solid track record at TPC Sawgrass. If I'm being honest, it also helps that both Spencer and Josh have already used Hideki Matsuyama in this contest, which means I have a chance to continue to gain ground on them by having a player all to myself. 'Deki's putting is always a concern - and he was definitely miserable at Bay Hill last week en route to losing six strokes on the greens - but he also has something of a knack for following up especially horrible putting weeks with noticeable improvement. He's a ball-striking machine that's averaging a sicko 6.9 Strokes Gained: T2G over his last five tournaments and in five Players starts since 2015 he's notched two top-10s and two top-25s against just one missed cut. I do wonder if Matusyama can putt well enough to win this week, but I have no doubt that his ball striking will give him a great opportunity to succeed. - Joe Nicely

Yearly Earnings - $2,211,949

Yearly Cuts Made - 8/10

 

Spencer Aguiar - Bryson DeChambeau

Alternate - Xander Schauffele

The Players Championship has historically had some erratic results from year-to-year, but I believe the move from May to March might alleviate some of those concerns. All of that will be slightly hinged on if the wind can remain calm and not turn the event into a luck-filled contest, but early reports are indicating weather won't play a factor.

The two-month move helps golfers for a few reasons. For starters, greens will be more receptive and not as quick, but driving distance should also increase with the rough being non-existent. You still can't bomb away with no regard because of the water that does come into play, but missing to the correct side can alleviate a ton of those concerns.

All of that information leaves us with a few golfers worth considering. I am well aware that Bryson DeChambeau will most likely be the most popular OAD selection this week, but I don't feel like getting cute with a lead already in hand. The American bulked up during the off-season, adding extra muscle to his frame, and the results have been intoxicating from a driving standpoint. From January 1st to now, DeChambeau is recording the second-best season in PGA Tour history off the tee and gained more than two strokes in three different rounds at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. That is good enough for me to deploy the 13th-ranked player in the world at the biggest payday event of the year, and if you aren't playing from behind in your contest, DeChambeau should be one of the names at the top of your list. -Spencer Aguiar

Yearly Earnings - $2,723,331

Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

 

Josh Bennett - Sergio Garcia

Alternate - Adam Scott

The Players is typically an event with a lot of volatility, and therefore we don’t see a lot of players with consistently good course history records. However, Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott are two names that tend to always find themselves up on the leaderboard every year. Due to the volatility of the event, I think it’s a good strategy to play someone like these two so that you at least have a made cut (or a great chance at one). Scott plays a little more on the PGA Tour, plus I think he might be on cruise control a little bit after a couple wins, so I’m going to roll with Sergio this week since there aren’t many other good options for him the rest of the way, whereas there’s many more opportunities to play Scott.

It’s interesting that Sergio plays this event well. Like the last couple Florida courses the Tour stopped at, TPC Sawgrass tests you just as much mentally as it does physically. Sergio is known to be a bit of a hot-head, so it’s surprising he’s able to keep his emotions in check enough for four days to stay in contention year after year. Part of the reason for that may be because he is an excellent player off-the-tee and is able to set himself up in “safer” places that put less mental stress on the second shots. He’s in decent form coming in and is a former winner of this event, so hopefully he can keep those emotions in check for another year and get himself into contention again on Sunday.  – Josh Bennett

Yearly Earnings - $2,347,535

Yearly Cuts Made - 8/10

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,00 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424

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