Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy & Tips Editor Note NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

FFPC Terminator Best-Ball League Strategy

Love best-ball but looking for something with a twist? FFPC is already an industry leader in best ball competition for serious fantasy players but they also are the innovators when it comes to offering variety. Aside from the new Best Ball Slim Leagues which I explained earlier in the offseason and even showed how to build a roster via live stream, FFPC offers something no other site does: the Terminator.

This takes all the best ball scoring rules along with the draft-only/no waivers philosophy but adds a small element of weekly management. Intrigued yet? By the time you finish reading, you might be encouraged to try it out.

Let's dive into the details of this unique league type along with some strategies to help you tackle your first attempt at a Terminator league draft. After you're done here, you can join a Terminator best-ball league for just $35 or jump into the Terminator Tourney for true high-stakes action.

 

Rules and Scoring

Key points that distinguish this league from typical best-ball contests:

  • You must terminate one player each week or else your team is disqualified. Don't worry, they send weekly email reminders!
  • League scoring runs through Week 16. Winner has the most total points by that point.
  • Kicker and Defense are required - more on this later.

 

Balance is Key

Like stocking up on RB early? Prefer the Zero RB method? Never draft a QB until after round 10? That's not the best way to approach a Terminator league.

If there's one key phrase to remember during a Terminator League draft, it's "Begin with the end in mind." By the time most head-to-head leagues are in playoff season, a team in a Terminator League will have half of its original players left on the roster. By season's end (after Week 16), there will be a total of 10 players left standing, which is just enough to field a starter at each position. The two flex spots give some, uh, flexibility, but it would do no good to have five great receivers or two stud QBs around while having a deficit at another position. Ideally, your roster is rock solid at each spot.

In best-ball leagues, fantasy managers often shoot for the high-ceiling player that could turn into a league-winner or at least provide some scoring spikes on certain weeks throughout the season. Those players are always helpful when they go boom, but if there aren't enough high-floor players remaining by the time the season is winding down, any lead in the standings will surely slip away. Drafting conservatively to some extent in the first few rounds is recommended, especially since trading and waiver wire adds are not allowed.

 

Play It Safe Early

The late-round QB strategy is popular in redraft leagues. You don't need to pull the trigger early on the position, but waiting too long here could spell trouble. Keep in mind that you will only have one QB by year's end and that second QB probably won't hang around past midseason because those flex spots are more volatile and more valuable to keep backups around. Which passer you hang your hat on is a matter for another article, but bear in mind that even though this is best ball, you can't fall back on the two-QB system all year. A relatively "safe" pick like Dak Prescott early, Jared Goff a little later, or perhaps Kirk Cousins if you truly insist on waiting for a QB are the best choices.

It's been said there are no safe running backs, even in the first round, and it's hard to disagree. That said, we know who is guaranteed a relatively large share of touches in their team's offense barring injury, so the Zero RB strategy would be hard to pull off. If you choose to make someone like Kareem Hunt your RB1 and Tevin Coleman or Mark Ingram your RB2, then you could start with Adams/Kittle/Mahomes/Kupp before addressing RB and then shoot for upside later with rookies. The point remains that whichever position you address in the early rounds, it should consist of a player you feel good about sticking around all year. For that reason, I'm fading James Conner, David Johnson, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Green, and Rob Gronkowski in this format.

 

Take Chances Late - Lots of Chances

Once you pass Round 10, it's time to begin the search for the infamous "upside." It doesn't mean throw caution to the wind and take a bunch of rookies or unproven players. It does mean that playing it safe is no longer necessary because your starting spots have been addressed and many of the players selected from this point on will be cut at some point during the season.

That means taking Bryce Love instead of Adrian Peterson, Brandon Aiyuk over Dede Westbrook, Matt Breida over James White, Joe Burrow over Jimmy Garoppolo, and Dante Pettis over Larry Fitzgerald. OK, I'm not taking Dante Pettis anywhere - that ship has sailed, sunk, and doesn't need to be explored again - but you get the idea. It's best to take a chance here because that player who flames out quickly can be terminated just as quickly.

In fact, the termination process begins before Week 1 so there is guaranteed to be a player on your roster that never even has a chance to contribute. You are almost obligated to take a lotto ticket in the later rounds. The first cut you make should not be one of your defenses because that position has a reasonable chance to give you a weekly advantage up until the time you need to clear up space without sacrificing a high-scoring flex player.

 

Draft 3 Defenses and 3 Kickers

Fantasy football "experts" will preach that you don't draft a team defense early and that the unpredictability of the position doesn't warrant holding onto a backup. In best-ball formats, you obviously need to roster a second DST and kicker to account for bye weeks. Shouldn't this be enough?

Technically, yes. But in a league where you want to assemble an ideal roster that will stand the test of time, grabbing a third selection at each position can help more than an eighth RB or WR. With 26 total roster spots available, you certainly have room for an extra kicker and/or defense. In a non-superflex league where taking three QBs isn't essential, a third DST is far more likely to surpass the point total of your first DST selection than a third QB like Tyrod Taylor or Sam Darnold is to outscore Deshaun Watson at any point. Many of the top winning roster constructions include a third defense and kicker. In fact, teams that draft a fourth or even fifth defense are more likely to win than those that stick with two.

Visual proof via RotoViz's FFPC Roster Construction Explorer that taking extra DST not only doesn't make you a noob, it makes you a crafty best ball player:

It's harder for some to stomach drafting three kickers, but it is even more important than for defense. First, injuries happen. Stephen Gostkowski, Robbie Gould, Michael Badgley, and Adam Vinatieri are some of the most reliable kickers in the league who missed extended time last season, leaving best ball owners with one lesser option at the position all year. It's not possible for an entire team defense to be put on IR, but kickers get hurt, cut, or simply don't perform well. Hedging your bet is a good idea since there is no way to pick up or stream a kicker during the season. One again, teams that owned a third kicker won at a higher rate than those with just three.

Now, extend this philosophy to a Terminator league where an injured or terrible kicker can get the boot off your roster, saving you from having to cut an RB or WR that you want to give more time to evaluate. Trust me, the extra pick will make a positive difference and you should prioritize a third kicker and defense more so than a third QB.

 

Different Approaches

Here are two examples of Terminator drafts I've participated in. One draft kicked off the day after the NFL Draft wrapped up and the other is still in progress, to give you an idea of how ADPs have shifted.

To find the full-size draft board, click here for the May draft and right here for the August draft or you can click the images below.

 

May Terminator Draft

I lucked into the first overall pick, which made my strategy obvious. I'm a proponent of the one-RB approach this year, which means secure your workhorse in the first or second round and then wait until round 5 or 6 to take RB2. With Christian McCaffrey on my roster, that was a no-brainer. I followed up with three target hogs at WR and then Dak Prescott at QB. Evan Engram seems like an early selection but keep in mind this is a TE premium league, so waiting any longer at the turn would have meant fewer risk-free options.

Kareem Hunt is my favorite RB2 target this year as he has top-15 upside and even more if Nick Chubb misses time. If nothing else, his pass-catching floor means he should stick on my roster all year. I regret the Sony Michel pick a little but this was long before news of his surgery and the relative safety of Nyheim Hines and the fact I own both non-Ekeler Charger RBs means a good chance I landed an RB3 option.

Breshad Perriman and Jalen Reagor are pure upside plays but they won't be missed by the time November comes around since they are highly unlikely to supplant my trio of Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Kenny Golladay.

The Bears signing Cairo Santos, which makes Eddy Pineiro expendable, just reinforces the fact that a third kicker is essential.

 

August Terminator Draft

This draft is nearly over as we are currently in Round 24. With the fifth pick, I tried a different strategy to see how I liked the roster construction. There is some degree of risk with Dalvin Cook (holdout), Derrick Henry (last year's workload), and Alvin Kamara (injury history), so I grabbed Michael Thomas first. It felt just a bit early to go with a tight end and both Kittle and Kelce were gone before my next pick.

I really wanted either Josh Jacobs or Austin Ekeler in Round 2 but it was not meant to be, so I grudgingly took Nick Chubb which forced me to secure my second RB a little earlier than usual. I am trying to have 110% exposure to Cam Akers this year, so no complaints with the results.

The starting lineup of Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, Cam Akers, Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson II, Courtland Sutton, and Hunter Henry provides a high floor across the board with the possible exception of Akers. That explains the boring selections of Duke Johnson and Marlon Mack a bit later. The latter half of this draft was filled with more lotto tickets than usual as a result.

I don't expect Dez Bryant to sign before the year starts but that just means he is my preseason termination pick. Same goes for Devonta Freeman, who could be a high-reward pick or an early termination if nothing pans out.

Another player appearing on the most recent draft that wasn't selected a few months ago is Scotty Miller, who I grabbed in Round 24. Following training camp buzz has spoiled many a fantasy roster, but in this league it's exactly the type of player to target late. If he pays off, great! If he doesn't turn out to be the next Wes Welker, he gets the boot in a couple of weeks.

You may or may not agree with all my draft strategies, but if nothing else, this should provide insight as to how you can tackle roster construction for this unique format. Give it a try by following the links listed at the top of this article!



Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Best-Ball League Strategy




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis Editor Note NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Tight End Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis - August

Tight ends continue to climb in valuation, as top-notch players like Travis Kelce and George Kittle have entered the conversation as late first-round or early second-round picks in best ball formats with TE Premium scoring such as FFPC. Even in typical scoring formats, some fantasy managers want to secure a relatively safe option at an unpredictable position.

The NFL season is fast approaching, which means time is running out for best ball drafts to begin. We will continue to update rankings in every format throughout the offseason and you can find the latest rankings here.

In this column, we will evaluate the latest tight end rankings for best ball drafts. Complete your best-ball draft prep by reading about our tiered rankings at running back, wide receiver, and quarterback.

 

TE Best Ball Rankings

Position Rank Position Tier Player Name Overall Rank Overall Tier
1 1 Travis Kelce 22 3
2 1 George Kittle 23 3
3 2 Mark Andrews 46 4
4 2 Zach Ertz 51 5
5 2 Darren Waller 62 6
6 2 Evan Engram 68 6
7 2 Austin Hooper 72 6
8 2 Hunter Henry 76 7
9 2 Tyler Higbee 81 7
10 3 Mike Gesicki 95 8
11 3 Jared Cook 107 9
12 3 T.J. Hockenson 108 9
13 3 Rob Gronkowski 110 9
14 3 Noah Fant 113 10
15 4 Hayden Hurst 122 10
16 4 Dallas Goedert 124 10
17 5 Ian Thomas 141 11
18 5 Blake Jarwin 147 11
19 5 Eric Ebron 149 12
20 5 Chris Herndon 156 12
21 5 Jack Doyle 159 13
22 5 Jonnu Smith 169 13
23 5 Greg Olsen 172 13
24 6 Dawson Knox 189 14
25 6 Jace Sternberger 191 14
26 6 Irv Smith Jr. 194 14
27 6 O.J. Howard 196 14
28 7 Gerald Everett 208 15
29 7 Trey Burton 213 15
30 7 Tyler Eifert 234 16
31 7 Kyle Rudolph 238 16
32 7 Cameron Brate 242 16
33 7 Will Dissly 246 16
34 7 David Njoku 259 17
35 7 Jimmy Graham 268 18
36 7 Cole Kmet 280 18
37 8 Brycen Hopkins 296 18
38 8 Vance McDonald 305 19
39 8 Foster Moreau 321 19
40 9 Darren Fells 344 20
41 9 Albert Okwuegbunam 345 20
42 9 Ryan Griffin 347 20
43 9 Devin Asiasi 355 20
44 9 Josh Oliver 356 20
45 9 Kaden Smith 357 20
46 9 Thaddeus Moss 358 20
47 9 Mo Alie-Cox 370 21
48 9 Adam Trautman 371 21
49 9 Jordan Akins 374 21
50 9 Drew Sample 375 21
51 9 C.J. Uzomah 376 21
52 9 Harrison Bryant 378 21
53 9 Nick Boyle 380 21
54 9 Kahale Warring 381 21

 

Tier 1

It's clear that there is a top-two rather than a top-three this year and a clear separation with a 23-spot drop from the top tier until the second. Kelce typically goes first but I am giving the slight edge to Kittle. The injuries to San Francisco's wide receivers will necessitate Kittle carrying a bigger load; even the smallest of increases will push Kittle over Kelce in terms of production. Their per-game averages were nearly identical last year.

You can't go wrong with either one, especially in a TE-premium format, so this isn't a decision to sweat so much as which RB do you settle on if you are drafted a tight end first.

 

Tier 2

Zach Ertz has officially lost his spot as TE3. Mark Andrews owns a higher ADP in nearly all formats and I personally ranked him a full two rounds higher, although one of our rankers still has Ertz ahead of him. There could be some trepidation based on Andrews' health condition (Type 1 Diabetes) and many have speculated that he could opt out of the season. He has stated otherwise and seems dedicated to getting Baltimore to the Super Bowl, so his draft risk should be mitigated.

To say Tyler Higbee is a polarizing player in the fantasy community is putting things lightly. For perspective, our three rankers have him at 66, 102, and 155 overall. That's quite a discrepancy. Then again, what are we supposed to make of this roller-coaster of a 2019?

For transparency's sake, I'm in the middle of our rankers at 102, placing Higbee firmly in tier three and just inside the top 10 at the tight end position. There is no way he repeats last year's stretch between Week 13-16 but it's also unlikely he reverts to being a non-factor. The Rams found something that works and will have to utilize 12 formation more often. Not only did it actually work, but Brandin Cooks is gone as is Todd Gurley, who was an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Best ball drafters shouldn't reach for Higbee expecting a breakout but he should be a solid source of points throughout the year. Don't forget about Gerald Everett though - he will get his share of targets.

 

Tier 3

How can we identify this year's breakout performer at tight end? That's the million-dollar question each year. I won't profess to have clairvoyance, but I do know that surprising TE performers usually emerge as a result of a weak wide receiver group. Darren Waller was far and away the top receiver in Oakland last year with a 25.2% target share because his next closest competition was oft-injured Tyrell Williams (14.5%) and rookie Hunter Renfrow (14.2%). The next two target leaders were running backs Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. This is why the Raiders spent three draft picks on receivers.

Back to the question: who could break out this year? The most likely candidate has to be Mike Gesicki. We already know about his insane combine numbers but now the opportunity is there in his third NFL season. Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns have both opted out of 2020, so the Dolphins have DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant, and Isaiah Ford as their top receiving options. Throw in Williams returning from an ACL tear and Parker being completely untrustworthy (yes, jaded Dolphins fan here) as someone who's missed 11 games and just played his first full season out of five, there is a good chance Gesicki becomes a constant target.

My next favorite choice as a late TE1 selection is Noah Fant. I recognize the questions surrounding Drew Lock's development and Fant's inexperience but the ceiling is too tantalizing to pass up. Outside of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos still lack depth at receiver, especially if KJ Hamler's hamstring injury lingers into the regular season.

New offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur should make a positive impact as well. Before his disappointing stint as head coach of the Giants, he managed offenses that finished top-12 in passing yardage in four of his five seasons as OC between Minnesota and Philadelphia. Fant has 4.5 speed and run-after-catch ability that plays well in best ball where he can provide spikes in production.

 

Tier 4

If Higbee was polarizing, Hayden Hurst is downright controversial. Mike Riggall is bullish to the nth degree, ranking Hurst 91 overall as his TE13. Phil Clark isn't buying it, dropping Hurst to 230 overall. Once more, I'm the middle man with Hurst at 166. I was a big fan when he was drafted by Baltimore in the first round (by legendary tight end Ozzie Newsome no less) but he struggled with injuries early and never usurped the starting job from Mark Andrews.

Now, he inherits the role that made Austin Hooper the top-scoring TE in the first half of last year and is tied to Matt Ryan as his signal-caller. Context clues point to a potential breakout but we should pump the brakes a bit. It's not a straightforward comparison, but I can't help be reminded of Coby Fleener a few years ago. He was solid in Indy for four seasons and then signed by the Saints to be the primary tight end. Expectations went through the roof as he was on a top-notch passing offense with a Hall of Fame QB in Drew Brees. It didn't go so well, as he totaled 631 yards and three touchdowns. Not terrible but based on his insane 7.01 ADP in 2016, it was a massive letdown. Hurst will need to find his way in this offense and will defer to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley most of the time. He's a decent backup but do not count on him as a fantasy starter, even in best ball.

 

Tier 5

It seems as if Blake Jarwin is the trendy sleeper at this position but I can't bring myself to rank him inside the top 200. If we assume he can effectively replace Jason Witten's production from last year, that would make him fantasy TE12 in half-PPR. While that provides great return on investment based on his ADP, it also assumes that he will take over Witten's 75.4% offensive snap share and that CeeDee Lamb won't cut into his targets.

Kellen Moore stays on as offensive coordinator but Mike McCarthy is an experienced play-caller and will surely have an influence on the way things are run in-game. His offenses in Green Bay provided more opportunities to slot receivers than tight ends. Jarwin isn't a bad pick based on where he's going in FFPC drafts as the 18th TE off the board, especially with an extra half-point per reception, so this is the place to target him if at all.

Chris Herndon is a low-end preseason sleeper who is getting a little buzz. It's hard to trust someone who suffered both a suspension and a season-ending injury last year. Not to mention the fact he's on an Adam Gase offense... Still, Herndon seems to be the primary tight end for the Jets with very little competition for targets in a thin receiving corps. If he can keep it together, both physically and mentally, he has the talent to make plays after the catch as he did for the Miami Hurricanes.

 

Tier 6 and lower

Trey Burton was once a trendy sleeper but was simply average in his first year with Chicago before missing half of 2019 with injuries, producing little when he did play. He'll backup Jack Doyle, who is the TE to own in Indy, but bears monitoring if you draft three TEs. If anybody loves throwing to the tight end, it's gotta be Philip Rivers, right?

With the expected ascension of Irv Smith Jr. up the pecking order in Minnesota, Rudolph has become a non-factor for fantasy managers. It should be noted that Stefon Diggs' absence vacates an average of 121 targets per season since Kirk Cousins arrived and rookie Justin Jefferson is unlikely to absorb all of those. If Dalvin Cook continues to hold out or gets injured (again), the team could lean on Rudolph more than expected. There isn't a very high ceiling but he did finish as TE14 last year in fantasy, so he makes for a safe backup who is being discredited in drafts.

The final player on our list is one I must take responsibility for. I snuck Kahale Warring into my TE rankings as a dark horse for your final roster spot in best ball.

The Texans liked him enough to spend a third-round pick on him last year, only to see him miss the entire season. Darren Fells was the most productive tight end in Houston and was re-signed but is more of a backup plan than anything. Bill O'Brien loves his guys and Warring should get every shot to make an impression. Another former basketball player with elite athleticism at the position, the upside is high enough that he warrants a draft pick more so than Fells or most other backup tight ends.

More Best-Ball League Strategy


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis Editor Note NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Wide Receiver Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis - August

As you prepare for each draft, multiple factors are incorporated into your analysis of every selection. For those of you who participate in the highly popular Best-Ball leagues, this process includes building a team that can withstand the challenges that can emerge during the season, without having the opportunity for any form of in-season roster management. That’s why the team at RotoBaller provides a detailed analysis of our latest Best-Ball rankings that help you plan your drafts.

This article will present a breakdown of the wide receiver position. It is recommended that you develop a strategy for selecting your receivers that remains flexible based upon the flow of each draft. Some owners are capitalizing on the opportunity to seize elite receivers during the initial rounds, as their league-mates focus on collecting running backs. Others are stockpiling productive receivers after they have drafted backs with their early picks.

Regardless of how you build your roster, wide receivers will perform a significant role in determining your team’s success. 23 receivers are located among the top 50 in our rankings, while 60 receivers currently reside among the top 150. We will continue to update rankings in every format as we approach Week 1, and you can find the latest rankings here.

 

WR Best-Ball Rankings

Position Rank Position Tier Player Name Overall Rank Overall Tier
1 1 Michael Thomas 5 1
2 1 Davante Adams 8 1
3 1 Tyreek Hill 10 2
4 1 Chris Godwin 13 2
5 1 Julio Jones 14 2
6 1 DeAndre Hopkins 17 2
7 2 Kenny Golladay 19 2
8 2 Amari Cooper 21 3
9 2 D.J. Moore 24 3
10 2 Mike Evans 26 3
11 2 Adam Thielen 27 3
12 2 Allen Robinson 28 3
13 2 Odell Beckham Jr. 29 4
14 2 JuJu Smith-Schuster 32 4
15 3 A.J. Brown 34 4
16 3 Cooper Kupp 38 4
17 3 D.K. Metcalf 39 4
18 3 Calvin Ridley 40 4
19 4 Robert Woods 42 4
20 4 D.J. Chark 43 4
21 4 Courtland Sutton 44 4
22 4 Keenan Allen 49 4
23 4 Terry McLaurin 50 5
24 4 Tyler Lockett 53 5
25 4 DeVante Parker 55 5
26 4 A.J. Green 58 6
27 4 T.Y. Hilton 60 6
28 4 Stefon Diggs 61 6
29 4 Jarvis Landry 63 6
30 5 Tyler Boyd 65 6
31 5 Michael Gallup 66 6
32 5 Marquise Brown 78 7
33 5 Julian Edelman 79 7
34 5 Will Fuller 80 7
35 5 Darius Slayton 83 7
36 6 Deebo Samuel 85 7
37 6 Diontae Johnson 86 7
38 6 Marvin Jones 87 8
39 6 Christian Kirk 88 8
40 6 Mike Williams 90 8
41 7 Breshad Perriman 91 8
42 7 Jerry Jeudy 92 8
43 7 Brandin Cooks 93 8
44 7 Sterling Shepard 96 8
45 7 Emmanuel Sanders 99 8
46 7 John Brown 100 9
47 7 Mecole Hardman 109 9
48 8 Robby Anderson 114 10
49 8 Golden Tate 116 10
50 8 CeeDee Lamb 118 10
51 8 Anthony Miller 119 10
52 8 N'Keal Harry 123 10
53 8 Preston Williams 130 10
54 8 Curtis Samuel 131 10
55 8 Jamison Crowder 133 10
56 9 Justin Jefferson 134 10
57 9 Alshon Jeffery 135 11
58 9 Michael Pittman Jr. 136 11
59 9 James Washington 142 11
60 9 Sammy Watkins 144 11
61 9 Henry Ruggs III 155 12
62 9 Steven Sims 157 12
63 9 Allen Lazard 161 13
64 10 Jalen Reagor 164 13
65 10 Brandon Aiyuk 165 13
66 10 Hunter Renfrow 167 13
67 10 DeSean Jackson 168 13
68 10 Dede Westbrook 170 13
69 10 Tee Higgins 171 13
70 10 Randall Cobb 173 13
71 10 Tyrell Williams 181 14
72 10 Larry Fitzgerald 186 14
73 10 Cole Beasley 187 14
74 10 KJ Hamler 188 14
75 10 Kenny Stills 193 14
76 11 Parris Campbell 199 14
77 11 Corey Davis 200 14
78 11 Bryan Edwards 203 15
79 11 John Ross 207 15
80 11 Chris Conley 209 15
81 11 Andy Isabella 216 15
82 11 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 223 16
83 11 Devin Duvernay 228 16
84 11 Danny Amendola 229 16
85 11 Antonio Gandy-Golden 230 16
86 11 Phillip Dorsett 232 16
87 11 Albert Wilson 235 16
88 11 Auden Tate 240 16
89 11 Russell Gage 241 16
90 11 Laviska Shenault Jr. 244 16
91 11 Josh Reynolds 245 16
92 11 Denzel Mims 247 16
93 11 Mohamed Sanu 248 17
94 12 Tre'Quan Smith 251 17
95 11 Jalen Hurd 258 17
96 11 Kelvin Harmon 264 18
97 11 Devin Funchess 269 18
98 11 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 270 18
99 11 Jakobi Meyers 274 18
100 11 Keke Coutee 276 18
101 11 Kendrick Bourne 279 18
102 11 Miles Boykin 281 18
103 12 Nelson Agholor 284 18
104 12 Keelan Cole 286 18
105 12 Allen Hurns 287 18
106 12 Chase Claypool 288 18
107 12 Geronimo Allison 292 18
108 12 Tyler Johnson 293 18
109 12 Demarcus Robinson 297 18
110 12 David Moore 298 18
111 12 Dante Pettis 299 18
112 12 Zach Pascal 303 19
113 12 Adam Humphries 304 19
114 12 Demaryius Thomas 306 19
115 12 Trey Quinn 307 19
116 12 Hakeem Butler 311 19
117 12 Taylor Gabriel 313 19
118 12 Ted Ginn 315 19
119 12 Willie Snead 316 19
120 12 Marquise Goodwin 317 19
121 12 Scott Miller 325 19
122 12 Van Jefferson 327 19
123 13 Olabisi Johnson 329 19
124 13 Antonio Callaway 330 19
125 13 Stanley Morgan Jr. 333 19
126 13 Antonio Brown 336 19
127 13 DaeSean Hamilton 338 20
128 13 Greg Ward 340 20
129 13 KeeSean Johnson 343 20
130 13 Zay Jones 349 20
131 13 Robert Foster 350 20
132 13 Jakeem Grant 351 20
133 13 Donovan Peoples-Jones 352 20
134 13 Tajae Sharpe 361 20
135 13 Cordarrelle Patterson 362 20
136 13 Justin Watson 363 20
137 13 Damiere Byrd 364 20
138 13 Deon Cain 366 21
139 13 Josh Gordon 367 21
140 13 Tim Patrick 368 21
141 13 Byron Pringle 369 21
142 13 Taywan Taylor 373 21
143 13 Richie James 377 21

 

Tier 1

Michael Thomas, Davante Adams 

Thomas has never finished lower than WR7 in point per game scoring (PPR) since his 2016 rookie season, including last year’s rise to WR1. He has also experienced a steady increase in targets and receiving yards during that span, which culminated with the career highs that he attained during 2019 (185 targets/1,725 yards/91 first downs).

He also led the NFL in each category, along with receptions (149), red-zone targets (26), and 100-yard performances (10). Thomas remains the premier weapon for Drew Brees, and nothing should deter you from making him the first wide receiver to be selected during your drafts.

Adams was fourth overall in yardage entering week 5 (378/95 per game) and was averaging 9 targets per game. A turf toe issue sidelined him from weeks 5-8, but his usage and output were exceptional following his return. Adams finished second in targets (91) and receptions (58) from weeks 9-17 and was second in point per game scoring during Green Bay’s final seven games. The Packers have chosen to compete with a dearth of receiving weaponry, which makes Adams a strong candidate to lead the NFL in targets. The relentless selection of running backs also leaves him available in Round 1 of most drafts.

 

Tier 2

Tyreek HillChris Godwin, Julio Jones, DeAndre HopkinsKenny Golladay

The dynamic Hill has sustained an ADP in the teens throughout the offseason, in anticipation of the statistical fireworks that will ensue if he performs with Patrick Mahomes for 16 games. He was limited to 12 snaps from weeks 1-5, due to a shoulder injury. But he reemerged to lead all receivers in targets (52) and touchdowns (5) from weeks 6-10 while generating 844 yards and seven touchdowns during his final 11 contests. He also finished fifth in percentage share of team's air yards (40.1) during that sequence and presents owners with the potential to explode for huge gains on every route.

Anyone who believed in Godwin during their 2019 draft process was rewarded with an undisputed breakout season. He vaulted into the league’s elite tier of receivers by finishing second in point per game scoring, yardage (1,333), and touchdowns (9) from weeks 1-15 before a hamstring issue ended his season. Godwin enters his fourth season at age 24 while presenting opposing defenders with a lethal combination of size, speed, and versatility. This will allow him to remain among the NFL’s most prolific receivers with Tom Brady under center, which keeps him embedded among your early WR1 options.

Jones remains anchored within the league’s top tier of receivers as he enters his 10th season. He has averaged 162 targets (10.5 per game) since 2014 and has averaged 623 receptions (6.7 per game) and 9,388 yards (102 per game). This has preserved his place among the top seven in point per game scoring during that six-year sequence. Jones also led the league in air yards (1,911), finished second in targets (157), yardage (1,394), and completed air yards (1,039), and was fifth in receptions (99). The 31-year old Jones remains available in Round 2 and will deliver exceptional numbers once again.

Weeks 1-17 Targets Receptions Yards Air Yards Comp Air Yards
Michael Thomas 185 149 1,725 1,488 1,127
Julio Jones 157 99 1,394 1,911 1,039
Allen Robinson 154 98 1,147 1,680 853
Julian Edelman 153 100 1,117 1,410 771
DeAndre Hopkins 150 104 1,165 1,543 778
Keenan Allen 149 104 1,199 1,520 825
Tyler Boyd 148 90 1,046 1,378 674
Robert Woods 139 90 1,134 1,076 538
Jarvis Landry 138 83 1,174 1,370 727
D.J. Moore 135 87 1,175 1,498 772
Cooper Kupp 134 94 1,161 940 611
Odell Beckham 133 74 1,035 1,720 704
DeVante Parker 128 72 1,202 1,735 909
Davante Adams 127 83 997 1,264 598
Courtland Sutton 125 72 1,112 1,436 748
Jamison Crowder 122 78 833 955 475
Chris Godwin 121 86 1,333 1,272 729

Hopkins stockpiled 830 targets from 2015-2019, led the league in 2017 (174), and finished among the top five in four of those seasons. He also led the league in target share during 2018 (33.1%) and finished second last season (30.9%). But even though Hopkins will maintain an integral role as the WR1 in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, he will not reach the share that owners have become accustomed to. His diminished target total will also prevent him from matching the averages in receptions (97) and yardage (1,300) that he has attained since 2014. This places him at the low end of our tier 1 rankings.

Golladay has risen to WR1 status, which is reflected in our rankings, his ADP, and the production that he delivered during 2019. Golladay finished sixth in points per game scoring (non-PPR), led the NFL in touchdowns (11), and finished seventh in receiving yards (1,190). He also finished third in air yards (1,745), and yards per reception (18.3), while his proficiency as a vertical weapon fueled his five games of 100+ yards. Golladay also persevered through the eight-game absence of Matthew Stafford to achieve those career-best numbers and is primed to generate sizable production as Stafford re-emerges under center.

 

Tier 3

Amari Cooper, D.J. Moore, Mike EvansAdam ThielenAllen Robinson  

Cooper begins his second full season with the Cowboys after eclipsing 1,000 yards for the fourth time in five years. He also finished seventh in both receiving yards (1,189) and touchdowns (8), while his effectiveness as a downfield weapon propelled him to 10th in air yards (1,536) and third in completed air yards (935). Cooper also established new career-highs in yards per reception (15.1) and yards per target (10). His ability to prevail against overmatched defenders will sustain his role as the primary option for Dak Prescott while making him a low-end WR1 for owners.

Moore delivered a breakout season at age 22, by finishing within the top 10 in targets (135/9 per game), receptions (87), and receiving yards (1,175). He accomplished it despite missing Carolina's season finale (concussion) and operating with Kyle Allen for 12 of his 15 matchups. Moore will be performing in a restructured offense that is being concocted by Matt Rhule and Joe Brady, while also operating with a new quarterback. However, Teddy Bridgewater should locate his WR1 on a frequent basis. This could elevate Moore among the leaders in yards after the catch and he should also exceed last year’s touchdown total (4).

Evans has surpassed 1,000 during all six seasons of his career (1,210 per year) while averaging 139 targets and 15.8 yards per reception during that span. He also led the NFL in air yards (1,779) and was third in receiving yards (1,157) before being sidelined from Weeks 15-17 (hamstring). There is concern whether 43-year old Brady can engineer a downfield aerial assault. But Brady will be blending his strengths with Bruce Arians’ vertical approach, while Evans could be deployed in a mixture of high percentage routes and deep balls. This makes him an appealing target at his Round 3 ADP.

Thielen owners were forced to contend with consistent frustration during 2019, due to his lingering hamstring injury and the rigid offensive philosophy of Mike Zimmer. Thielen was sidelined for the first time in his career after performing in 87 consecutive games. He also averaged just 4.8 targets, 3.0 receptions, and 41.8 yards per game during the 10 games in which he was available. Those averages will rise this season, as the departure of Stefon Diggs has elevated Thielen into an unchallenged role as Minnesota’s WR1. However, his ceiling will be constrained by an offense that maintains a strong reliance on the ground game.

I have been targeting Robinson as my WR1 consistently during drafts in which I selected running backs during the first two rounds. His status as Chicago’s primary receiving weapon remains uncontested, and his massive target share should match the 27.3% that he registered during his stellar 2019 season. Robinson finished third in targets (154)  while collecting 10+ in seven different games. Five of those occurred during the Bears’ final six matchups, as Robinson was third in targets and fourth in receptions during that sequence. Robinson also finished sixth in air yards (1,686), seventh in percentage share of team’s air yards (38.6), and is undervalued at his ADP.

Weeks 12-17 Targets/Game Targets Target Share Receptions Yards
Michael Thomas 12 72 34.1 55 584
Davante Adams 11.7 70 32.3 44 460
Robert Woods 11.3 68 27.5 45 568
Allen Robinson 11.3 68 30.1 41 514
Julio Jones 13.2 66 31 40 512
DeVante Parker 9.3 56 22.6 32 598
Tyler Boyd 9 54 26.1 32 448
Jarvis Landry 9 54 23.7 34 479
Julian Edelman 8.8 53 26.7 32 401
Jamison Crowder 8.2 49 25.4 25 271
Sterling Shepard 8.2 49 23.1 32 309
Courtland Sutton 8 48 27.1 23 307
Russell Gage 8 48 18.5 32 289
DeAndre Hopkins 9.2 46 28.5 29 420
Odell Beckham 7.3 44 19.3 26 343

 

Tier 4

Odell Beckham Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster,  A.J. BrownCooper KuppD.K. MetcalfCalvin RidleyRobert Woods, D.J. Chark, Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen

One year ago, Beckham’s ADP (14) placed him at WR6. Optimism was based on the premise that he would be reenergized in a fresh environment. But Beckham failed to match lofty expectations while finishing 18th in receptions (74), and 23rd in yardage (1,035). He also averaged a career-low 64.7 yards per game and managed just four touchdowns. Despite the discouragement of 2019, the Browns have embarked on a promising path under Kevin Stefanski. Beckham’s Round 4 ADP also provides an opportunity to bet on his remaining talent.

Smith-Schuster is currently being drafted at WR12, as many owners remain confident that he can rekindle the production that he attained in 2018 (166 targets/111 receptions/1,426 yards). But his numbers plummeted last season (42 receptions/552 yards), as he was impacted by multiple injuries (knee/foot), and the prolonged absence of Ben Roethlisberger. Smith-Schuster will face competition for targets from the emerging Diontae Johnson, who assembled an impressive rookie season.  Roethlisberger’s return also does not automatically assure that Smith-Schuster’s output will be restored to its 2018 level.

Brown established his ability to perform effectively as Tennessee’s primary receiving weapon after Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota under center. He finished third in point per game scoring (non-PPR) from weeks 7-17, while finishing sixth in yardage (778), and fifth in touchdowns (6). Brown also led the league in yardage (605) and touchdowns (5) from Weeks 12-17 and finished the season with the NFL’s highest yard per target average (12.5). Brown has emerged as a viable WR2 with the potential to achieve WR1 output during his second season.

Kupp averaged 12.6 targets, 8.2 receptions, and 101 yards per game from Weeks 1-5. But those averages dropped to 5.9 targets/4.5 receptions/46.1 yards per game in Weeks 10-17, as Kupp trailed Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee in each category. His snap count percentage also diminished from 88.2% in weeks 1-12 to 63.3% in weeks 13-17, while Higbee’s snaps surged to 69%. Kupp did lead the Rams in red-zone targets (21), but he trailed Higbee yet again from Weeks 13-17 (13/8). However, Brandin Cooks also collected 23 targets during that span, and his departure improves Kupp's opportunity to remain highly involved - regardless of how Sean McVay blends his personnel packages.

Expectations for Metcalf’s 2019 rookie season were frequently tempered due to the limitations of his route tree and experience (21 games) at Ole Miss. But he developed into an explosive weapon for Seattle, while leading all first-year receivers in targets (100), and finishing third in receiving yards (900) and touchdowns (7). Metcalf also emerged as a resource near the end zone by finishing 10th overall in red-zone targets (18). His continued advancement as a receiver will combine with his speed and athleticism to produce numbers that exceed his Round 5 ADP.

Mohamed Sanu had been averaging six targets per game for the Falcons before an October trade extracted him from their roster. That created an enormous path for Ridley to accumulate targets and yardage as Atlanta’s unquestioned WR2. Ridley’s averages rose from 6.3 targets, 4.1 receptions, and 53.2 yards per game before Sanu’s departure, to 8.2/5.7/82.1 per game from weeks 8-14. He also tied for ninth in point per game scoring during that sequence, before being sidelined during weeks 15-17 (abdomen). Ridley also finished second overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average).

As Kupp’s usage and output diminished last season, Woods paced the Rams in receptions (59/5.9 per game, yardage (779/77.9 per game) and targets (92/9.2 per game) during LA’s final 10 contests This included weeks 13-17, when Woods finished second overall in targets (59), receptions (39), and fourth in yardage (471). Woods' snap count was not curtailed by the Rams’ mixture of personnel packages, as he led all receivers in snaps (357). Woods’ ADP has risen 17 slots since April, and he should lead LA in targets, receptions, and yardage this season.

Chark experienced a meteoric rise from infinitesimal numbers as a rookie to finish among the top 20 in multiple categories. He was eighth in scoring after Week 14 and was also fourth in touchdowns (8), and sixth in air yards (1,355). He also averaged 8.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 74 yards per game) before contending with an ankle injury from Weeks 15-17. Chark still tied for seventh in touchdowns (8) while finishing 19th in targets (118), 17th in air yards (1,421), and 13th in percentage share of team’s air yards (34.9). He is now primed to flourish as Jacksonville’s primary receiver once again.

Sutton’s ascension into WR2 terrain during 2019 would normally have vaulted him to a more prestigious tier in our rankings. He finished inside the top 20 in scoring, targets (125/7.8 per game), yardage (1,112), air yards (1,452), and yards per route (2.48), while also leading the NFL in percentage share of team's air yards (42.93). But he was also absorbing targets in a Denver offense that was deficient in additional talent at his position. Now he must compete for opportunities with Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Noah Fant while functioning with a quarterback that remains unproven.

Allen is still just 28-years old, hasn’t missed a game since 2016, and has consistently proven his ability to accumulate high-quality production. He has averaged 148 targets, 101 receptions and 1,263 yards since 2017, and finished among the top six in targets (149), receptions (104), and yardage (1,199) during 2019. He retains the necessary skills to achieve similar results this season. But his customary Round 2 ADP has descended to Round 5. This is a byproduct of his conversion from consistent statistical success with Philip Rivers to the uncertain ramifications of operating with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert.

 

Tier 5

Terry McLaurin, Tyler LockettDeVante Parker 

McLaurin was the 101st receiver selected in last August's drafts (ADP 282). But he quickly seized Washington’s WR1 responsibilities and exceeded even the most optimistic projections. McLaurin led rookies in point per game scoring and finished second in receptions (58). His usage as a downfield weapon also lifted him to sixth in percentage share of team’s air yards (37.09), 10th in both yards-per-target (9.9), and 10th in yards per reception (15.8). He will operate with an unobstructed path toward high volume as Washington’s primary receiver. which should launch him into high-end WR2 territory.

Metcalf has been commandeering conversation as an ascending presence, but Lockett led Seattle in targets (110), receptions (82), receiving yardage (1,057), and touchdowns (8) in 2019. He also paced the Seahawks in air yards (1,340), percentage share of air yards (29.8), and target share (22.3). His numbers did plunge from 8.8 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 90.4 yards per game in Weeks 2-9 to 5.4 targets/3.3 receptions/41.4 yards per game from weeks 10-17. However, Lockett was contending with health issues (shin/flu), and owners can target him near the conclusion of round 5.

After four seasons of uninspiring numbers (5.3 targets, 3.1 receptions, and 41.8 yards per game), Parker experienced a career reawakening in 2019. He skyrocketed to fourth in both receiving yards (1,202) and air yards (1,713) and tied for third in touchdowns (9). His usage and production rose after promising rookie Preston Williams was sidelined, as Parker vaulted to first in touchdowns (5), and second in yardage (802) from weeks 10-17. He was also sixth in targets (76) and third in point per game scoring (PPR) during that span. Owners can select him confidently at his Round 6 ADP.

 

Tier 6

A.J. GreenT.Y. HiltonStefon Diggs Jarvis Landry, Tyler BoydMichael Gallup

Green was 10th in point per game scoring after week 7 of 2018, before a lingering toe issue interrupted his season and his highly productive career. He is an intriguing Round 7 option as he returns to a transformed Cincinnati offense. However, his latest hamstring issue should be monitored.

Hilton should reclaim his role as Indy’s WR1 and benefit from operating with Rivers. He should also rebound from his career-worst 2019 season (68 targets/45 receptions/501 yards). But he might not reach his averages from 2013-2018 (131 targets/76 receptions/1,206 yards.

Landry finished 13th in targets (138), 12th in receptions (83), and achieved career highs in yardage (1,174) and yards per reception (14.1). Even if he does not replicate those numbers in Cleveland’s restructured offense, he remains undervalued at his Round 7 ADP.

Diggs finished second overall in yards per target (12.0), third in percentage share of team’s air yards (41.3), and fourth in yards per reception (17.9). But he now resurfaces in a Buffalo offense that finished seventh in run play percentage, and will also deploy John Brown as a downfield weapon.

Boyd finished among the top eight in targets (148), and receptions (90). The reemergence of Green and the presence of John Ross and Tee Higgins will prevent Boyd from reaching those 2019 numbers. But if Green encounters another significant health issue, then Boyd's stock will elevate immediately.

Gallup finished seventh in yards per reception (16.8) while finishing 10th in targets (57), and fifth in yardage (577) from Weeks 11-17. His enormous talent should propel him to favorable output despite competition for targets from Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.

 

Tier 7 

Marquise BrownJulian Edelman, Will Fuller, Darius Slayton, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson

Marquise Brown averaged 8.5 targets and 76 yards per game from Weeks 1-4 but just 3.7/28 per game from Weeks 5-17. He is healthy and can unleash his big-play potential with greater frequency.

Only Thomas captured double-digit target totals in more games than Edelman (10). But the 34-year old must now function without his customary signal-caller. Fuller can become Deshaun Watson’s primary target -if he can elude further injury. He averaged 9 targets/75 yards per game from weeks 2-6, but just 4.6/45 yards during his other matchups.

Slayton led the Giants in touchdowns (8) and targeted air yards (23.8). But the target shares for Slayton (14.3), and teammates Sterling Shepard (14.2) and Golden Tate (14.7) were extremely close.

The timeline for Samuel’s return is unclear. But he will function as the 49ers’ WR1 whenever he is operating at full capacity. Johnson overcame deficiencies at quarterback to lead Pittsburgh in targets (92), receptions (59), and target share (18.9).

 

Tiers 8 and 9 

Marvin Jones Jr.Christian Kirk, Mike Williams, Breshad PerrimanJerry JeudyBrandin Cooks,  Sterling ShepardEmmanuel SandersJohn BrownMecole Hardman 

A sizable number of factors can emerge before week 1 that would alter the value of receivers in these tiers.



Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Best-Ball League Strategy


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis Editor Note NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Quarterback Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis - August

So far so good. It appears the NFL season will start on time as planned, so fantasy football draft season should proceed as usual. Of course, if you are a best-ball player, you've been drafting for months and will simply continue to build your portfolio of rosters.

The quarterback position requires a specific plan of attack in best-ball leagues, as you cannot play the streaming game based on matchups throughout the year and a backup is required to compensate for the bye weeks and account for injuries. Roster construction varies based on strategical preference, but it's usually advisable to stick with two QBs on a roster if your QB1 is a top-15 pick at the position or three if you play the waiting game. This makes analyzing tiers critical in order to assess who and when to select the right signal-caller.

We will continue to update rankings in every format throughout the offseason and you can find the latest rankings here. When you're finished here, check out our excellent coverage of the running back position by Phil Clark.

 

QB Best-Ball Rankings

Position Rank Position Tier Player Name Overall Rank Overall Tier
1 1 Patrick Mahomes 35 4
2 1 Lamar Jackson 37 4
3 2 Kyler Murray 56 5
4 2 Dak Prescott 69 6
5 2 Russell Wilson 70 6
6 2 Deshaun Watson 71 6
7 2 Josh Allen 73 6
8 3 Carson Wentz 82 7
9 3 Matt Ryan 89 8
10 4 Daniel Jones 101 9
11 4 Tom Brady 102 9
12 4 Drew Brees 103 9
13 4 Aaron Rodgers 104 9
14 4 Baker Mayfield 105 9
15 5 Matthew Stafford 120 10
16 5 Jimmy Garoppolo 125 10
17 5 Ben Roethlisberger 128 10
18 5 Joe Burrow 132 10
19 5 Jared Goff 140 11
20 5 Ryan Tannehill 145 11
21 5 Cam Newton 146 11
22 5 Philip Rivers 151 12
23 5 Kirk Cousins 154 12
24 6 Drew Lock 176 13
25 6 Derek Carr 179 14
26 6 Teddy Bridgewater 183 14
27 6 Sam Darnold 184 14
28 6 Gardner Minshew II 185 14
29 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick 205 15
30 7 Dwayne Haskins 215 15
31 7 Tyrod Taylor 217 15
32 8 Tua Tagovailoa 237 16
33 8 Mitchell Trubisky 252 17
34 8 Jameis Winston 263 18
35 8 Jordan Love 265 18
36 8 Nick Foles 273 18
37 8 Marcus Mariota 278 18
38 9 Justin Herbert 294 18
39 9 Jarrett Stidham 300 18
40 9 Kyle Allen 323 19
41 9 Andy Dalton 335 19
42 9 Alex Smith 339 20
43 9 Jalen Hurts 346 20
44 9 Taysom Hill 354 20
45 9 Jordan Ta'amu 360 20
46 9 Jacoby Brissett 372 21

 

Tier 1

It's obvious that Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes will comprise the top tier on their own this preseason in all formats. What's notable is how their ADP seems to be slowly creeping up, as many owners decide that it's worth having a difference-maker at QB. Jackson is going 19th overall and Mahomes 23rd overall in FFPC Best-Ball leagues (non-Superflex). They rank slightly lower in BB10s at 21 and 27 respectively.

The RotoBaller rankings crew doesn't have either passer quite that high. In fact, we suggest passing on this tier in favor of acquiring high-end RB/WR in the second and third round instead. The likelihood of either passer reprising their career years is unlikely. While you can achieve a high floor on a weekly basis, you could come close to replicating that production with a pair of reliable passers later on. The lack of depth beyond the first couple of tiers at running back, along with their inflated ADP, make it more important to address that position in the first couple of rounds.

 

Tier 2

Josh Allen as QB7 seems about right but it may be surprising to see him a full 14 spots higher than his 95 ADP in BB10. It turns out there is a big discrepancy between sites, as he is going 82nd in FFPC and 83rd in NFBC drafts. There is a wider variation in value once you look at QB3-8, so if you are set on a guy, don't necessarily expect him to be available where he is typically taken. Allen could take a step forward with Stefon Diggs in town but placing him above Prescott is a bit much for me. Speaking of...

Dak Prescott is one of the biggest preseason ADP risers in 2020. The addition of CeeDee Lamb, a more aggressive head coach in Mike McCarthy, and the simple acknowledgment that he is indeed an elite quarterback have conspired to bring him into the second tier for most drafters. Another factor that works in Prescott's favor is the fact that the Cowboys have the third-easiest projected strength of schedule. Even without a new deal (what is Jerry Jones actually thinking?), Prescott is viewed as a solid top-five QB for redraft purposes.

Our rankings have him down a tier nearly 20 spots lower than his current draft position on FFPC, partly due to my own rankings. The issue is two-fold for me. 1) I don't value quarterbacks as highly as others in this format, so many of my rankings will be lower than ADP consensus. 2) The higher the draft slot, the less likely you are to find a good return on investment. Prescott is rock solid, but not likely to put up better numbers than last year, so you could find comparable value a round or two later. Consequently, I won't own too many shares outside of a Terminator league where I want a safe pick at the position.

 

Tier 3

Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan sit in the dead zone between high-upside QBs who offer rushing production and riskier picks due to age, inconsistency, or other concerns. In other words, if you like your QB safe and boring, here's your sweet spot.

Even with a skeleton crew at wide receiver much of the season, Wentz consistently put up QB1 fantasy numbers on a regular basis.

The addition of Jalen Reagor and possibility of a healthy Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson can only help. The only issue with Wentz is that he doesn't have tangible upside for a breakout, league-winning type of season. There is no need to reach for him, so make sure to secure eight flex players (RB/WR/TE) before pulling the trigger.

A case hardly has to be made for Ryan. He led the NFL in pass completions (408) last year despite missing a game and has one of the best WR duos along with pass-catching back extraordinaire Todd Gurley II. Ryan has missed a total of three games over a 12-year career, so securing him just inside the top 100 players practically assures you can wait for a backup and safely keep your QB roster count to two with no risk.

 

Tier 4

We're far more optimistic about Aaron Rodgers than most. He has fallen outside the top 10 QBs in FFPC best-ball leagues and comes in at 10th on BB10. This is the inverse situation of Prescott, where perception of Rodgers' fantasy value may be unnecessarily low. Jordan Love won't see the field this season as long as Rodgers is healthy and concerns over the receiving corps are overblown. He actually should have an easier time finding his targets this year. If you recall, his main man Davante Adams was injured and missed four games and Allen Lazard was a rookie. Rodgers still managed to finish 2019 as the fantasy QB9. I'm pretty sure he'll be passing Jameis Winston on that list, so a top-eight finish is quite reasonable.

Rodgers had a very low 6.9% win rate on FFPC last year (lower than Joe Flacco, unbelievably) but that was based on a 73.9 ADP. Now that he's going around pick 114 as QB13, he makes for a good value for those who don't want to roll the dice on a second-year QB.

Full disclosure: Daniel Jones is tearing the inside of my soul apart. OK, that might be hyperbolic but he does create much internal conflict on draft day. On one hand, I have him pegged as a breakout candidate based on a wealth of targets at his disposal and a defense that could be worse than last year. On the other hand, he turns the ball over a helluva lot. He tossed 12 INT in 12 starts but also fumbled a league-high 18 times, recovering only three. Offensive line has been an issue (just ask Eli Manning), so he's not solely to blame, but it doesn't inspire confidence that he can reach his full potential just yet. I would keep him as a QB2 if paired with a high-floor veteran like Brees or Brady.

Tom Brady in Tampa under Bruce Arians, throwing to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Gronk feels like it should be a safe bet. I have him down at QB17 in best-ball, however, which is the lowest of our rankers. I worry that the peaks might not make him the ideal draft target based on an ADP that keeps creeping upward. Brady is the anti-Daniel Jones in the sense that he rarely makes mistakes but also won't sling it down the field, at least not anymore.

According to NFL NextGenStats, Tom Brady ranked 26th with a 15.2 Aggressiveness rating while Daniel Jones ranked third at 22.4. Add in the fact that Tampa may have one of the most improved defenses, along with far fewer turnovers without Jameis Winston at the helm, and this team simply won't need to pass as much. Brady is a fine second QB but won't be a league-winner.

 

Tier 5

Once the starting-caliber quarterbacks are gone, there's a big cluster of passers lumped together ranging from rookie Joe Burrow to veteran Philip Rivers. Roster construction should dictate which direction you go for your second QB, depending on who was selected prior. If you already rostered a QB from the first two tiers, it makes sense to wait and take a chance on someone like Burrow or Newton, who could put up the occasional big week but most likely won't be needed in your starting lineup. If your QB1 is Baker Mayfield or Daniel Jones, then it should be a priority to select someone like Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff for a safe floor.

Big Ben might be the riskiest "safe" pick of this whole pack. There are arguments on both sides. Critics will point out that he's 38 years old, coming off elbow surgery, and doesn't bring a high floor due to a lack of rushing ability (and a propensity for turnovers at times). Supporters will astutely note that he is one year removed from a 5,000-yard passing season, has a deep, young receiver group, and hasn't finished worse than QB20 in the past 10 years, 2019 not included.

I'm about 40-50 spots higher on Goff than my fellow rankers. He was fifth in xComp% at 66.5% and has been a consistent performer with 4,600 passing yards the past two seasons. Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley are gone, but neither were 100% healthy last year and Gurley's presence may have hampered the offense with his 3.8 yards per carry. Having an explosive back like Cam Akers and now three pass-catching tight end threats should keep Goff's yardage total high as usual.

 

Tier 6 and lower

I currently own more Derek Carr shares in best-ball leagues than I ever imagined. The prevailing thought is that Marcus Mariota may displace him in 2020, but as someone who has watched Mariota actually play, I don't share that concern.

Mariota's xComp% was 61.8%, fifth-worst among qualified passers (128 pass attempts). He was dispatched by the Titans, who picked him second overall mind you, and will simply serve as the backup unless Carr really struggles early on. He's not the most exciting, but Carr has always been efficient and at least has some new weapons at receiver.

I had some hopes early this preseason that Dwayne Haskins could be a sneaky backup QB target this year but those are gone now. His 76 QB Rating was worse than all but Duck Hodges and David Blough and the new coaching staff will have no attachment to him. Typically, second-year quarterbacks are able to make progress but the backfield situation is now a mess and the receiving corps is filled with inexperience. Hell, he might fall to third on the depth chart by season's end.


Best-ball drafters are catching on to this sentiment, as his ADP continues to fall. If you are going with a three-QB setup, you can do better than Haskins.

If I had to pick out a late QB target that could be a league-winner, it would be Drew Lock or Gardner Minshew. They are both going within five spots of each other in FFPC, around the 150 range. Minshew's ADP has slowly climbed but it's obvious that his ceiling is limited based on the situation in Jacksonville. Lock has better targets and a better O-line protecting him. Minshew will likely rack up garbage time yardage on several occasions but I expect Lock to rack up more touchdown passes.

More Best-Ball League Strategy


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Advertorial (hidden from partners and app) NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles RotoBaller NFL Premium RotoBaller Premium

Josh Hayes' 2020 Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium Content)


Already a Premium Subscriber? Login here

This content is for Premium Subscribers only. You can see our different Premium Tools and subscription options below:

MLB Premium
NFL Premium
NBA Premium
NHL Premium
PGA Premium
MMA Premium
NASCAR Premium
eSports Premium
Multiple Sports combined
Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players Advertorial (hidden from partners and app) NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles RotoBaller NFL Premium RotoBaller Premium

Josh Hayes' 2020 Best Ball Avoids (Premium Content)


Already a Premium Subscriber? Login here

This content is for Premium Subscribers only. You can see our different Premium Tools and subscription options below:

MLB Premium
NFL Premium
NBA Premium
NHL Premium
PGA Premium
MMA Premium
NASCAR Premium
eSports Premium
Multiple Sports combined
Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note Featured Football NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Running Back Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis - August

As you prepare for each draft, multiple factors are incorporated into your analysis of every selection. For those of you who participate in the highly popular Best-Ball leagues, this process includes building a team that can withstand the challenges that emerge during the season, without having the opportunity for any form of in-season roster management. That’s why the team at RotoBaller delivers a detailed analysis of our latest Best-Ball rankings that help you plan your drafts.

That includes this breakdown of the critical running back position. It is recommended that you develop a strategy for selecting your backs that remains flexible based upon the flow of each draft. This can still allow many of you to focus on seizing backs during the early rounds (Robust RB). The initial results of your draft could also compel you to only select one back in these rounds (Modified-Zero RB), or avoid the position completely (Zero RB).

Regardless of how you build your roster, your running backs will perform a significant role in determining your team’s success. Nine backs are located among the top 12 in our rankings, while 35 runners currently reside in our top 100. We will continue to update rankings in every format as we approach Week 1, and you can find the latest rankings here.

 

RB Best-Ball Rankings

Position Rank Position Tier Player Name Overall Rank Overall Tier
1 1 Christian McCaffrey 1 1
2 1 Saquon Barkley 2 1
3 1 Ezekiel Elliott 3 1
4 1 Dalvin Cook 4 1
5 1 Alvin Kamara 6 1
6 1 Joe Mixon 7 1
7 1 Nick Chubb 9 1
8 2 Derrick Henry 11 2
9 2 Josh Jacobs 12 2
10 2 Austin Ekeler 15 2
11 2 Miles Sanders 16 2
12 2 Aaron Jones 18 2
13 2 Kenyan Drake 20 3
14 3 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 25 3
15 3 Todd Gurley II 30 4
16 3 Melvin Gordon III 31 4
17 3 Leonard Fournette 33 4
18 3 Le'Veon Bell 36 4
19 4 Chris Carson 41 4
20 4 Cam Akers 45 4
21 4 Jonathan Taylor 47 4
22 4 James Conner 48 4
23 4 David Johnson 52 5
24 4 David Montgomery 54 5
25 4 Devin Singletary 57 5
26 4 Mark Ingram II 59 6
27 5 Kareem Hunt 64 6
28 5 D'Andre Swift 67 6
29 5 J.K. Dobbins 74 7
30 5 Raheem Mostert 75 7
31 5 Jordan Howard 77 7
32 6 Sony Michel 84 7
33 6 Tevin Coleman 94 8
34 6 Phillip Lindsay 97 8
35 6 Ke'Shawn Vaughn 98 8
36 7 Latavius Murray 106 9
37 7 James White 111 9
38 7 Marlon Mack 112 10
39 7 Zack Moss 115 10
40 7 Tarik Cohen 117 10
41 7 Ronald Jones II 126 10
42 7 Kerryon Johnson 127 10
43 7 Matt Breida 129 10
44 7 Tony Pollard 137 11
45 8 Alexander Mattison 138 11
46 8 Darrell Henderson 139 11
47 8 Joshua Kelley 143 11
48 8 Chase Edmonds 150 12
49 8 Darrynton Evans 152 12
50 8 Justin Jackson 158 13
51 8 Adrian Peterson 160 13
52 8 A.J. Dillon 162 13
53 8 Nyheim Hines 163 13
54 8 Jamaal Williams 175 13
55 8 Boston Scott 180 14
56 8 Duke Johnson 182 14
57 9 Antonio Gibson 192 14
58 9 Royce Freeman 197 14
59 9 Ryquell Armstead 198 14
60 9 Justice Hill 202 15
61 9 DeAndre Washington 204 15
62 9 Rashaad Penny 210 15
63 9 Giovani Bernard 212 15
64 9 Anthony McFarland Jr. 218 15
65 9 Gus Edwards 219 15
66 9 Malcolm Brown 220 15
67 9 Carlos Hyde 221 16
68 9 Ito Smith 222 16
69 9 Damien Harris 226 16
70 9 Jalen Richard 227 16
71 9 Chris Thompson 231 16
72 9 Devonta Freeman 233 16
73 10 Brian Hill 253 17
74 10 Benny Snell Jr. 255 17
75 10 Jaylen Samuels 257 17
76 10 Peyton Barber 260 17
77 10 Dare Ogunbowale 261 17
78 10 Qadree Ollison 266 18
79 10 Darwin Thompson 267 18
80 10 DeeJay Dallas 271 18
81 10 Jerick McKinnon 272 18
82 11 Lamical Perine 275 18
83 11 Rex Burkhead 277 18
84 11 Eno Benjamin 283 18
85 11 Lynn Bowden Jr. 289 18
86 11 Dion Lewis 290 18
87 11 Lamar Miller 291 18
88 11 Bo Scarbrough 295 18
89 11 Darrel Williams 302 19
90 11 Bilal Powell 308 19
91 11 Corey Clement 309 19
92 11 Wayne Gallman 312 19
93 11 Jordan Wilkins 314 19
94 11 Mike Boone 318 19
95 11 Ty Montgomery 324 19
96 11 Patrick Laird 326 19
97 11 Bryce Love 331 19
98 11 LeSean McCoy 332 19
99 11 T.J. Yeldon 334 19
100 11 Frank Gore 341 20
101 11 Travis Homer 342 20
102 11 Jeff Wilson 348 20
103 11 Myles Gaskin 359 20
104 11 Reggie Bonnafon 365 20

 

Tier 1

Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Alvin KamaraJoe MixonNick Chubb 

Uncertainty remains prevalent in many aspects of this unique offseason. But McCaffrey’s ADP has never wavered, while he has also maintained a steady presence atop our rankings as we approach Week 1. He should also remain entrenched as the first overall selection in your drafts after leading all players in PPR scoring, and outdistancing other backs by a whopping 10 points per game. He finished first in all-purpose yards (2,392) and total touchdowns (19), became the first back to achieve two 100-catch seasons, and was just the third runner to generate 1,000 yards rushing and receiving yards in the same year.

Barkley contended with a lingering ankle issue last season, which prevented him from replicating his numbers from 2018. Barkley was first in PPR scoring and total yards from scrimmage (2,028) during that stellar season, while finishing second in rushing yards (1,307) and collecting 91 receptions. But he regained his usual degree of proficiency from Weeks 13-17, which propelled him to second in both scoring and rushing yards (542/108.4 per game). That serves as a reminder of how productive Barkley can be when he is unencumbered by injury. He should be targeted as the second overall selection in all drafts.    

Elliott is amazingly just 25-years old. But he has already stockpiled 5,405 yards and 40 touchdowns on the ground since his 2016 rookie year. He has surpassed 300 attempts and 1,300 yards in three of his four seasons, while a six-game suspension prevented him from matching those numbers during 2017. He was second in carries (301) and fourth in yardage (1,357) last season while also leading the league in red zone attempts (59), and rushing yards (162). Elliott was also the top-rated rusher in Football Outsiders’ DYAR Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement and should be among the top three backs selected during your drafts.

Cook’s arrival at Minnesota’s training camp finally ended months of speculation, due to conflicting reports about a potential holdout. Owners might still have concerns regarding his succession of health issues, which have forced him to miss 19 games. But his 2019 resume also included the second-highest point per game scoring average among backs. Cook entered Week 11 as the NFL leader in rushing yards (991) and was also second in receiving yards (424) before contending with chest and shoulder injuries.

Weeks 1-10  Attempts  Yards YPC TD
Dalvin Cook 203 991 4.9 10
Christian McCaffrey 185 989 5.3 11
Nick Chubb 174 919 5.3 6
Chris Carson 200 853 4.3 4
Derrick Henry 187 832 4.4 8
Leonard Fournette 174 831 4.8 1
Josh Jacobs 168 811 4.8 7
Ezekiel Elliott 178 788 4.4 6
Marlon Mack 178 753 4.2 3
Carlos Hyde 149 704 4.7 3
Lamar Jackson 106 702 6.6 6
Mark Ingram 123 619 5 8
Aaron Jones 135 589 4.4 11
Phillip Lindsay 118 584 4.9 5
Matt Breida 109 542 5 1
Jordan Howard 119 525 4.4 6
Adrian Peterson 115 491 4.3 1
Sony Michel 144 482 3.3 6
David Montgomery 129 466 3.6 5
Frank Gore 111 449 4 2
Le'Veon Bell 143 449 3.1 2
Joe Mixon 131 434 3.3 0

 

Weeks 1-10 Rec Yards  Recepts Targets Targets/Game
Austin Ekeler 559 57 62 6.2
Dalvin Cook 424 40 48 4.8
James White 404 44 55 6.9
Christian McCaffrey 396 48 59 6.6
Aaron Jones 354 35 45 4.5
Alvin Kamara 326 41 49 7
David Johnson 323 31 42 5.3
Miles Sanders 305 22 27 3
Leonard Fournette 295 40 51 5.7
Devonta Freeman 282 38 44 4.9
Le'Veon Bell 276 44 55 6.1
Chris Thompson 276 27 38 6.3
Saquon Barkley 258 33 46 6.6
James Conner 236 29 31 4.4
Duke Johnson 228 22 32 3.6
Nyheim Hines 218 27 36 4
Tarik Cohen 216 38 55 6.1
Ronald Jones 201 16 19 2.1
Ezekiel Elliott 192 26 33 3.7

Cook's unquestioned talent and his extensive involvement in Minnesota's attack keep him entrenched within the group of backs that can be selected midway through Round 1.

Kamara finished eighth in point per game scoring last season despite missing two matchups and operating with multiple injuries from Weeks 10-17 (ankle/back/knee). But he will reemerge with his health restored and should reaffirm his standing as a top-four back. He remains one year removed from generating 18 touchdowns, finishing second in red zone attempts (50), and placing fourth among all backs in receptions (81).


Kamara has also finished among the top four at his position in targets during each of his three seasons (100/105/97) while averaging 6.7 per game. That includes last season‘s 6.9 per game average, which was second among backs.

Mixon’s monstrous talent has been unquestioned since his 2017 rookie season. Now, after performing in three offenses that ranked 26th or lower, an infusion of surrounding talent could launch him to the most prolific numbers of his career. Cincinnati’s offensive line finished 29th in Football Outsiders’ Stuffed rankings – which measures the percentage of times a runner is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. But the convergence of 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams at left tackle, this year's first-rounder Joe Burrow under center, and a bolstered unit at wide receiver should create additional space for Mixon. This strengthens his appeal as a Round 1 selection.

Chubb would be located even higher in our rankings if he was operating without the looming presence of Kareem Hunt. Chubb was rushing for 104 yards per game and collecting 4.0 targets/3.1 receptions per game from Weeks 1-9. Those averages declined after Hunt was injected into the Browns’ offense from Weeks 10-17 (86.3 rushing yards/2.1 targets/1.4 receptions per game). He still finished third in all-purpose yards (1,772), second in yards after contact (882), and tied for the league lead in broken tackles (32). Chubb should also benefit from improvements to Cleveland’s offensive line. But his scoring potential will be reduced in PPR leagues.

 

Tier 2

Derrick HenryJosh JacobsAustin EkelerMiles SandersAaron Jones

Since Henry’s one-man demolition of Jacksonville in December of 2018 (238 yards/14 yards per attempt/4 touchdowns), he has stockpiled 390 regular-season carries while accumulating 2,125 yards and 23 touchdowns. That includes his massive usage and production last season, when Henry led the NFL in attempts (303), yardage (1,540), yards after contact (968), and tied for first in touchdowns (16). Owners will contend with Henry’s minimal involvement as a receiver (24 targets/18 receptions). But he remains the foundation of a Tennessee offense that ranked fourth in run play percentage (47%).  This makes him worthy of selection in Round 1.

Jacobs’ ADP would also reside firmly in Round 1 if not for concerns regarding his usage as a receiver (27 targets/2.1 per game). But he should easily surpass last year’s target total, while neither his workload nor his proficiency as a rusher is in question.


He was also fourth with 1,061 yards after Week 14 before his shoulder injury limited him to 89 yards from Weeks 14-17. He still finished eighth in rushing (1,150 yards), third in yards per game (88.5), and was fifth in yards after contact (683). Jalen Richard and rookie Lynn Bowden will siphon opportunities. But that does not preclude Jacobs from attaining greater usage as a pass-catcher.

The Chargers’ conversion to an attack that is spearheaded by Tyrod Taylor has created conflicting opinions regarding Ekeler’s ability to match his 2019 production. Replicating last year’s eight receiving touchdowns could prove to be a daunting task, which will also impact Ekeler's ability to match his RB4 finish in PPR scoring. However, his prospects of functioning effectively as a dual-threat back remain firmly intact. Ekeler will accumulate more rushing attempts than Joshua Kelly and Justin Jackson, while he will also operate as LA’s third receiving option. This keeps the dynamic Ekeler planted among your high-end RB2 options.

Sanders’ ADP was located at 19 in late April. But after Philadelphia declined the opportunity to select any backs during the NFL Draft, his ADP slowly climbed into Round 1. With only Boston Scott dwelling below him on the depth chart, that should help Sanders sustain the late-season momentum that he experienced during his rookie season. His snap percentage rose from 38% in Weeks 1-10 to 76% during his next six matchups, while his attempts per game nearly doubled during that span (8.4-15.7). He also finished eighth in yardage (430) from Weeks 11-16, while his yards per game average improved from 37.3 to 71.6.

Jones’ ADP peaked at 8 in mid-April. But it has dropped since Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur and general manager Brian Gutekunst seized A.J. Dillon in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. Jones is now available in the second round of current drafts, due to the likelihood that last year’s extensive workload will be reduced (236 carries/68 targets). Jones capitalized on his opportunities by generating 1,084 yards, and a league-best 16 touchdowns on the ground while also accruing 474 yards as a receiver. But the prospects of both Dillon and Jamaal Williams pilfering touches will make it difficult to meet the expectations of his ADP.

 

Tier 3

Kenyan Drake,  Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Exactly one year ago, Drake was being selected at the conclusion of Round 6. But the monumental career transformation that occurred following his trade to Arizona has launched Drake to the cusp of Round 1 during this year’s draft process. Drake averaged 102 total yards per game from Weeks 9-17, led the league in rushing during the critical Weeks 15-16 (303 yards/ 6.6 per attempt), and also registered a league-best six touchdowns. He will begin the season with an uncluttered path to feature back duties and will provide owners with coveted fantasy points as a rusher and receiver.

Edwards-Helaire’s mid-April ADP (86) had placed him at RB32 prior to the NFL draft. But he vaulted to RB14 by late July. Now, his ADP has surged to 7, following Damien Williams’ decision to opt-out of the regular season.


His rising stock has also elevated him over 100 spots since our pre-draft rankings, as he will operate as the RB1 in Kansas City’s powerful offense. He possesses the attributes that will allow him to excel as both a rusher and receiving option within the Chiefs’ unrelenting attack. This solidifies his Round 1 status.

 

Tier 4

Todd Gurley, Melvin GordonLeonard FournetteLe'Veon BellChris CarsonCam AkersJonathan TaylorJames Conner

Owners have been compelled to select Gurley at the onset of Round 3. But the decline in his 2019 numbers was universal when contrasted with 2017 and 2018. He plunged to 17th in point per game scoring after finishing at RB1 during the previous two seasons. His attempts per game decreased from 18.3 to14.9, while he also experienced a dramatic drop in targets (81/49), receptions (59/31), and yardage (580/207). He was also rated just 21st in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and 25th in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) after finishing first in both categories during 2018.

Gordon has not reclaimed the Round 1 draft status that he had attained earlier in his career. But his stock has rebounded following last year’s disastrous hold out with the Chargers. He averaged a career-low 13.5 attempts and 17 touches per game following his Week 5 return. However, Gordon also averaged 17.4 attempts and 21 touches per game from 2016-2018 and should attain similar numbers as Denver’s lead back. He is a viable target in Round 3 of all drafts and will function as a dependable point producer for his owners.

Under normal circumstances, a 25-year old feature back who had just finished among the top seven in PPR scoring, attempts (265), and rushing yards (1,152) would be a viable target at his Round 3 ADP. But Fournette’s status as Jacksonville’s lead back is precarious after the Jaguars attempted to trade him, then declined to extend his contract. He will not reach last season’s target total under new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden (100), and he could be supplanted as the team’s RB1 at any point during the season.

Bell operated as the Jets’ lead back, averaged 16.3 carries per game, and finished 11th in attempts (245). But he was only 16th in point per game scoring after averaging an anemic 3.2 yards per game and finishing 23rd in yardage (789). This was a major disappointment for owners who invested a late-Round 1 pick on the former All-Pro. Bell is being drafted as a back that will commandeer another sizable workload (ADP 36). But the Jets have melded Frank Gore and Lamical Perine into the backfield equation, and Adam Gases’ potential for dubious decision-making maintains its looming presence.

Carson’s ascension from a 7th-round pick to last year’s top-5 finish in yardage (1,230) has been impressive. He also placed third in yards after contact (905).


His 2019 averages in attempts (18.5) and yards per game (82) were extremely consistent with his numbers in 2018 (17.6 attempts/82.2 yards per game), while he has also generated 2,381 yards and 16 touchdowns during the past two seasons. He will function as Seattle’s workhorse back. But fumbling (7 in 2019) and injury concerns (15 missed games since 2017) remain part of the equation when considering Carson at his current ADP (39).

The Rams now advance into the post-Gurley era with a backfield that will allocate touches between Akers, Darrell Henderson, and Malcolm Brown. LA utilized a second-round selection on Akers, whose skills as a runner, blocker, and receiver provide the prospects of a three-down role. But even though he should eventually rise atop the depth chart, the timetable for that to occur has been delayed by the obstructions of condensed offseason activities. That will keep Henderson and Brown involved in the distribution of touches during much of the season.

Taylor became the NCAA’s sixth all-time leading rusher in just three seasons (6,174), while also becoming the first back in FBS history to generate over 6,000 yards in three seasons.

NCAA Rushing Leaders Yards Yards Per Season # Of Seasons
Ron Dayne 7,125 1,781 4 (1996-1999)
Tony Dorsett 6,526 1,631 4 (1973-1976)
Donnel Pumphrey 6,405 1,601 4 (2013-2016)
Ricky Williams 6,279 1,570 4 (1995-1998)
Charles White 6,245 1,561 4 (1976-1979)
Jonathan Taylor 6,174 2,058 3 (2017-2019)
DeAngelo Williams 6,026 1,507 4 (2002-2005)


Taylor is also destined to become the feature back in Indianapolis. The only remaining question involves his timeline for seizing that role. Marlon Mack was ninth in attempts during 2019 (246), while finishing 11th in yardage (1,091/4.4 per attempt). His performance was respectable but unexceptional and did not deter the Colts from securing Taylor in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. Taylor also possesses multiple attributes (size/speed/vision patience), that will allow him to thrive behind Indy’s offensive line - which has been ranked as the NFL’s best by PFF.

Conner demonstrated his ability to flourish as a feature back in 2018, by finishing seventh in point per game scoring, eighth in yards per game average (74.8), and third in rushing touchdowns (12). But he also showed his susceptibility to injuries last season, by managing just 464 yards, four touchdowns, and being sidelined for six contests. While Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels, and Anthony McFarland also occupy the depth chart, Conner will operate as Pittsburgh’s RB1. But he must evade any additional health issues in order to maintain lead back duties.

 

Tier 5

David JohnsonDavid Montgomery, Devin Singletary

Montgomery will enter Week 1 with an unchallenged role as Chicago’s primary back. He will also absorb a sizable workload that replicates his 2019 usage (242 attempts/15 per game). The absence of a timeshare is appealing to owners. But enthusiasm should be tempered by his inefficiency (3.7 yards per attempt). Only 12 backs were allotted more carries, but Montgomery placed 18th in rushing yards (889/55.6 per game). He was also just 44th in yards after contact per rush, while his involvement as a pass-catcher placed him 45th among backs in targets per game (2.2).

Singletary only averaged 5 attempts/43 yards per game from Weeks 1-8 while being impacted by a hamstring injury. But his workload increased significantly during Buffalo’s final eight games (16.4 attempts per game). He also finished sixth among all backs in yardage from Weeks 9-15 (557/79.6 per game) and seemed to be a candidate for a substantial workload. But Buffalo’s third-round selection of Zack Moss has dropped his ceiling. Moss will pilfer carries, targets, and red zone opportunities. This leaves Singletary overvalued at his ADP (50).

Bill O’Brien’s considerable investment in Johnson has assured that the former Cardinal will be entrusted with an integral role within the revamped Houston offense. That has propelled Johnson’s ADP into Round 3. However, it is highly uncertain whether he can perform effectively or remain healthy as he absorbs the responsibilities of a mammoth workload. Johnson finished third in attempts during 2018 (258) but his average of 3.6 yards per attempt relegated him to 13th in yardage (940). Last season’s 3.7 per game average was equally uninspiring before Drake surpassed Johnson on Arizona’s depth chart.

 

Tier 6

Mark IngramKareem Hunt, D'Andre Swift

Ingram eclipsed 1,000 yards (1,018) and assembled a career-high 15 touchdowns during his first year as a Raven. Five of those scores were produced on receptions, even though he only collected 26 during the season. Touchdown regression already appeared inevitable even before Baltimore selected J.K. Dobbins, but the rookie's abbreviated offseason should help Ingram preserve his RB1 role throughout 2020.

Hunt will be operating in a timeshare with Chubb. But that has not prevented his ADP from climbing 25 slots during the summer (76-51). The former NFL rushing leader finished at RB17 in scoring from Weeks 10-17 and averaged 10 touches/targets 5.5 per game during his eight matchups. His involvement as a receiver could easily increase in Kevin Stefanski’s offense.

Swift averaged 1,134 yards and generated 17 rushing touchdowns during final two seasons at Georgia, while also accruing 56 catches and 415 yards as a receiving weapon. His immense talent and versatility will propel him to a larger workload than Kerryon Johnson, and Swift’s timetable to seize an extensive role is shorter than many analysts have projected.

 

Tier 7

J.K. Dobbins, Raheem MostertJordan Howard, Sony Michel

Dobbins will benefit from Baltimore’s ground-oriented philosophy, as Greg Roman’s offense should lead the NFL in run play percentage once again. But Ingram presents a significant obstacle in Dobbins’ path toward 2020 production. while Gus Edwards could also siphon carries.

Mostert’s scoring potential could be neutralized in any given week by Kyle Shanahan’s deployment of Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, and other components within San Francisco’s congested backfield. Mostert averaged 12.8 attempts and 75.8 yards per game from Weeks 13-17. But he only averaged 7.3 carries/39.3 yards from Weeks 1-12.

Weeks 1-12 Attempts Yards AVG TDs
Matt Breida 109 542 5 1
Tevin Coleman 115 448 3.9 6
Raheem Mostert 73 393 5.4 2
Jeff Wilson 27 105 3.9 4

 

Weeks 13-17  Attempts Yards AVG TDs
Raheem Mostert 64 379 5.9 6
Tevin Coleman 22 96 4.4 0
Matt Breida 14 81 5.8 0

Howard was 13th in rushing yards from Weeks 1-9 (525) and was tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (6). But his production was circumvented by a shoulder injury that sidelined him for six contests. He will split touches with Matt Breida but should capture early-down and red zone responsibilities.

Concerns regarding Michel's inefficiency in 2019 have been exacerbated by his placement on the PUP list (foot surgery). His status for Week 1 remains unclear, and it is likely that the uncertainty triggered New England’s signing of Lamar Miller.

 

Tiers 8-10

Tevin ColemanPhillip Lindsay, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Latavius Murray, James WhiteMarlon MackZack Moss, Tarik CohenRonald Jones IIKerryon Johnson, Matt Breida  

Tiers 8-10 contain backs that are currently located between RB33 and RB43 in our rankings. Their value could change due to factors that might emerge before Week 1 of the regular season.



Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Best-Ball League Strategy


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note Featured Football Featured Homepage NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Best Ball ADP Late-Round Values - Wide Receiver

As we continue our progression toward the highly-anticipated regular season, the team at RotoBaller continues to generate news, data-fueled analysis, and updated rankings that provide your pathway to draft preparations and roster modifications. That includes our collection of resources for owners who are participating in Best-Ball leagues.

Those of you who have embraced this highly popular format are already aware that the decisions you make during each round of your drafts are critical. Because the benefit of avoiding all forms of in-season roster management also removes your option of using a waiver wire if your players are sidelined, or fail to supply the level of production that you envisioned.

This also elevates the importance of each selection once your drafts have entered the later rounds. Any doubts regarding the significance of capitalizing on each opportunity throughout the entire selection process should be eviscerated by a reminder that wide receivers D.K. Metcalf (ADP 138), Deebo Samuel (ADP 169), DeVante Parker (ADP 194), D.J. Chark (ADP 234), A.J. Brown (ADP 246) and Terry McLaurin (ADP 282) all remained available after Round 12 of last August's draft process. Here are five receivers that should easily surpass the expectations of their ADPs in current FFPC drafts.

 

N'Keal Harry, New England Patriots

WR60, ADP: 175

New England secured Harry with the 32nd overall selection during 2019’s NFL draft. Several attributes provided the rationale for investing a first-round pick on the 6’4”, 220-pound receiver including his size, his production during his final two seasons at Arizona State (155 receptions/2,230 yards/17 touchdowns), and his proven ability to prevail in contested catch situations.

But his prospects of delivering a highly-productive rookie season were thwarted immediately when he encountered an ankle injury last August. He did not return from injured reserve until Week 11 and captured 12 of 24 targets for just 105 yards during his seven matchups. That tied him for second with Jakobi Meyers in both targets and receptions, while he trailed Meyers and Julian Edelman in receiving yards. However, he did tie for the team lead with James White in red zone targets during that span (6) and also led the Patriots with four targets inside the 10. This red zone usage provides a basis for optimism following what was primarily a forgettable rookie season.

New England Red Zone Targets 

Weeks 11-17   Targets Inside 20 Targets Inside 10 Team %
N'Keal Harry 6 4 17.14
James White 6 1 17.14
Julian Edelman 4 2 11.43
Mohamed Sanu 4 3 12.5
Phillip Dorsett 4 1 12.5
Jakobi Meyers 3 2 8.57
Matt LaCosse 3 1 8.57
Sony Michel 3 1 8.57
Rex Burkhead 1 1 2.86

He now enters 2020 with a legitimate opportunity to function in an integral role within a restructured New England passing attack. Harry will be positioned on the perimeter with a chance to capitalize on his physicality and his penchant for tracking throws that are launched in his area.

Harry’s prospects for a significant rise in usage and production improved with the addition of former NFL MVP Cam Newton. If Newton can navigate through a 16-game season with sustained health, then his presence can expand Harry’s potential for production. If Newton is sidelined during the year, then a New England aerial attack that is spearheaded by Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer would suppress Harry’s ceiling.

The 34-year old Edelman should function as Harry’s primary competition for targets after the 11-year veteran finished fourth in that category during 2019 (153). He has also averaged 9+ targets per game during six of his last seven seasons (2013-2019), even though a torn ACL sidelined him throughout 2017. But despite his favorable level of usage, Edelman will be operating in unfamiliar territory after working with Tom Brady throughout his career.

Mohamed Sanu was extracted from Atlanta in October, but a high-ankle sprain kept him from exceeding five targets in six of his eight matchups as a Patriot.  Second-year receiver Meyers remains in the theoretical mix after averaging 2.7 targets, 1.7 receptions, and 23.9 yards per game.

Harry is primed to dramatically improve upon the substandard results of his rookie season. However, there are an astronomical 59 receivers that are currently being drafted in Best-Ball leagues before he is finally chosen in Round 15. This is your opportunity to seize him at a minimal investment, which could become one of the most important decisions that you make during your roster construction.

 

Darius Slayton, New York Giants

WR42, ADP: 126

There are divergent opinions that are circulating within the fantasy community concerning Slayton’s projections for 2020. But regardless of whether he attains breakout status during his second season, there should be no hesitation in targeting him among your late-round options in the Best-Ball format.

Slayton collected 79 receptions for 1,605 yards during his final three seasons at Auburn, while assembling 1,313 of those yards during 2017-2018. His 20.3 yards per reception average during his collegiate career was achieved through consistent numbers that ranged between 19.1-22.2 within that three-year span. He also demonstrated his potential to operate as a vertical weapon by registering a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash during the 2019 NFL Combine. However, Hakeem Butler, Gary Jennings, Riley Ridley, and Miles Boykin were among the 17 receivers that were selected before Slayton during the NFL Draft (171st overall).

He performed on his first snaps in Week 3, after contending with a hamstring issue that sidelined him in Weeks 1-2. Slayton ultimately finished fourth among newcomers with a 76% snap count percentage, while performing on 92% of New York's offensive snaps from Weeks 6-13. He also led all first-year receivers in targeted air yards (14.5), which placed him 11th overall.

Wide Receivers Targeted Air Yards
Mike Williams 17.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 16.6
Breshad Perriman 16.1
Ted Ginn 16.1
James Washington 15.6
Kenny Golladay 15.4
Robby Anderson 15.3
Mike Evans 15.3
Stefon Diggs 14.9
John Ross 14.9
Darius Slayton 14.5

Slayton also tied for first in touchdown receptions of 25+ yards, according to PFF

He also finished seventh overall in touchdowns (8), which tied him with A.J. Brown for the lead among rookies in that category. Slayton also finished fourth among newcomers in targets (84), and fifth in yardage (740). Those yardage and touchdown totals both paced the Giants, as Slayton also led New York in air yards (1,119), % share of team’s air yards (23.8), average depth of target (14), and receptions of 20+ yards (12). He also accrued results that closely resembled the numbers that were attained by teammates Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate in other receiving categories.

Weeks 1-17 Targets Receptions  20+ Yards Air Yards % Air Yards aDOT Target Share
Darius Slayton 84 48 12 740 1,119 23.8 14 14.3
Golden Tate 85 49 10 676 849 18 9.9 14.7
Sterling Shepard 83 57 8 576 809 17.2 9.7 14.2
Evan Engram 68 44 4 467 417 8.9 6 11.8
Saquon Barkley 73 52 6 438 51 1.1 0.7 12.3
Cody Latimer 42 24 4 300 527 11.2 12.5 7.2
Kaden Smith 42 31 3 268 235 5 5.7 7
Bennie Fowler 36 23 0 193 367 7.8 10.5 6

Slayton also paced Giant receivers in offensive snaps (709), as he operated outside on 86.1% of those plays.  Tate performed inside on 80.8% of his 624 offensive snaps, while Shepard ran routes from the slot on 56.7% of his 602 plays. Slayton will accumulate opportunities in his role as a downfield weapon once again this season, while Shepard (9.9 aDOT) and Tate (9.7 aDOT) execute shorter routes.

Slayton also performed effectively when multiple concussions forced Shepard from the lineup for six matchups. That included Weeks 6-10 when Slayton captured 34 targets (6.8 per game) and generated a team-high four touchdowns. Slayton's aforementioned hamstring issue limited his availability to just two of the four contests in which Tate was suspended during September (PEDs). But his performances both with and without Shepard and Tate in New York's lineup combine with unquestioned big-play potential to elevate Slayton among your most viable options in Round 11 of current drafts.

 

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles

WR49, ADP: 146

Reagor is currently the third receiver from the 2020 rookie class to be selected in Best-Ball drafts after CeeDee Lamb (WR40/ADP 118), and Jerry Jeudy (WR41/ADP124). Lamb's steady rise toward an elite tier is all but assured, while Jeudy's appealing blend of speed and route running excellence should eventually result in a prolific career. But both newcomers will be performing in environments that contain sizable competition for targets, while Reagor has been presented with an uncongested runway toward operating as the WR1 in Philadelphia.

Reagor became a logical candidate to lead Eagle wide receivers in multiple categories when the team selected him 21st overall in April’s Draft.
The addition of Reagor allows Philadelphia to inject a much-needed vertical presence into the team’s passing attack. This favorable blend of unquestioned speed and consistent opportunity will place Reagor in position to ignite for massive gains, while overmatched opponents contend with his explosiveness. This also provides Reagor with a chance to operate with Carson Wentz, who can capitalize on his big-play capabilities. This is a significant development for Reagor after he performed in a TCU offense that ranked 61st in 2019 while averaging just 203.7 yards per game through the air.

Tight ends Zach Ertz (22.4%) and Dallas Goedert (14.4%) should match last season's combined target share (36.8%). However, Reagor should easily surpass Alshon Jeffery's 12.0% share that led Eagle wide receivers during 2019. He should also accrue numbers that exceed the output that will be assembled by Philadelphia's collection of incumbents at the position. Jeffery led the unit in targets (73/7.3 per game), receptions (43), receiving yards (490), and touchdowns (4) during 2019. However, reliability issues reemerged when a protracted Lisfranc issue limited him to just 18 targets, nine receptions and 137 yards from Weeks 10-17. DeSean Jackson captured eight of nine targets for 154 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. But he managed just one five-yard reception from Weeks 2-17.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside’s discouraging season included being targeted in just eight matchups while collecting 10 receptions for 169 yards. Amid the disappointing performances from receivers that were expected to function as integral offensive components, Greg Ward rose from irrelevance to lead Philly’s wide receivers in targets (40), receptions (28), and yardage (254) from Weeks 12-17. But the explosive Reagor should elevate beyond the returning veterans, and quickly develop into a weekly starter.

He will not be the beneficiary of extensive practice time during this restricted offseason. But his home run potential will enable him to generate significant gains while remaining actively involved as a consistent weapon for Wentz. The Eagles have already demonstrated their commitment to Reagor through the use of a Round-1 selection. This will boost his potential to accumulate highly productive outings in the Best-Ball format. That provides your motivation to deploy a Round 13 pick on the dynamic rookie.

 

Breshad Perriman, New York Jets

WR62, ADP: 177

After Perriman registered a 4.25 in the 40 during his 2015 Pro Day, his blend of speed, size (6’2”, 215-pounds), and athletic ability provided the rationale for Baltimore to utilize their first-round selection on the former Central Florida Knight. Unfortunately, the script for the early portion of his career contained a steady stream of disappointment.

A torn ACL kept him affixed to the sideline through 2015, while he averaged just 50.5 targets, 21.5 receptions, and 288 yards during 2016-2017. After being released by Washington in September of 2018, Perriman resurfaced with Cleveland. He entered Week 14 with just eight receptions for 107 yards, before flashing his big-play capabilities during the Browns’ final four matchups (12 targets/8 receptions/233 yards/21.5 yards-per-target). That late-season surge compelled Cleveland to sign Perriman on a one-year contract. However, that deal evaporated hours later when the Browns traded for Odell Beckham. Perriman ultimately reemerged as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, which launched his career resurrection.

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FPFF_Jets%2Fstatus%2F1278715822597378050&widget=Tweet

His contributions did not occur immediately, as Perriman was involved on 33% of Tampa’s snaps from Weeks 1-12, while averaging just 3.6 targets, 1.2 receptions, and 15.4 yards per game. However, hamstring issues that were incurred by Chris Godwin and Mike Evans elevated the 26-year old Perriman into sizable responsibilities during December. He responded by delivering on his long-standing potential to function as a dynamic vertical threat, while exploding for 506 yards and an NFL-best five touchdowns from Weeks 13-17. Perriman also assembled the first three 100-yard performances of his career from Weeks 15-17, while leading the league in standard scoring (19.7 points per game), and touchdowns (4), and finishing second only to Julio Jones in yardage during those contests (349).

Weeks 13-17 Yards TDs Yards/Targ  Targets Recepts
DeVante Parker 507 5 11.3 45 26
Breshad Perriman 506 5 13.7 37 25
Michael Thomas 483 3 7.9 61 45
Robert Woods 471 2 8 59 39
A.J. Brown 470 4 13.8 34 21
Julio Jones 444 2 7.9 56 35
Davante Adams 417 4 7.2 58 37
Keenan Allen 403 2 9.6 42 34
Kenny Golladay 398 3 11.1 36 22
Allen Robinson 383 3 6.6 58 35
Michael Gallup 374 3 9.8 38 20
Tyler Boyd 347 3 7.7 45 27
Mike Williams 340 2 12.1 28 16
Robby Anderson 334 2 8.8 38 23
Jarvis Landry 331 1 8.1 41 24
DeAndre Hopkins 326 1 8.6 38 23
Tyreek Hill 317 2 9.6 33 25
Julian Edelman 308 2 7.5 41 24
Anthony Miller 307 2 8.8 35 23
Amari Cooper 303 1 8 38 23
Sterling Shepard 294 2 7.4 40 27
Emmanuel Sanders 293 1 10.1 29 19
Cooper Kupp 281 5 9.4 30 27
Terry McLaurin 281 2 11.2 25 18

His massive statistical surge in December also enticed the Jets to secure Perriman with a one-year contract. He will join a New York passing attack that ranked an anemic 29th during 2019, while averaging only 194,4 yards per game. However, only Arizona targeted their wide receivers with greater frequency than the Jets in their first season with Adam Gase as the architect of their offense (66.7%). Robby Anderson’s 96 targets from last season are also available for redistribution.

This will supply Perriman with the prospects of operating as New York’s primary receiving option on the perimeter. He will run routes opposite rookie Denzel Mims, who must navigate the unique hurdles that will impede offseason preparation. Dependable Jamison Crowder has garnered 99+ targets in three of his last four seasons, and will absorb opportunities once again in the slot.

Since Perriman’s professional career largely contained discouraging results before his dynamic sequence in 2019, skepticism that he can sustain a WR1 role is understandable. However, his home run capabilities currently remain available until Round 15 of most drafts. This should eliminate your reluctance to include this potential difference maker on your roster.

 

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers

WR64, ADP: 186

Lazard led Iowa State in receptions (196), receiving yards (2,767), and receiving touchdowns (23) for three consecutive years (2015-2017). That includes his final season with the Cyclones when his numbers (71 receptions/941 yards/10 touchdowns) exceeded the output of Hakeem Butler. However, those results did not compel an NFL team to select the 6’5”, 225-pound Lazard during the 2018 NFL Draft. The sluggish pace of his career continued as he was limited to one reception for seven yards during a forgettable rookie season, and failed to register a catch through Week 5 of 2019.

But he performed on 65% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps from Weeks 7-17 and finished second among Packer wide receivers in targets (52), receptions (35) yardage (477), and touchdowns (3) during his final 11 games. His numbers also surpassed Geronimo Allison (38 targets/24 receptions/183 yards) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (24 targets/9 receptions/217 yards), and Jake Kumerow (18 targets/10 receptions/188 yards) during that span. Lazard also accrued 702 air yards, eclipsed 65 yards in three of those matchups, and generated a season-high 103 yards in Week 13.

Despite his unexpected rise to relevance, it appeared unlikely that the Packers would enter 2020 with the same receiving arsenal that complemented Davante Adams during 2019. But even though an assortment of free agents could have provided a boost to Aaron Rodgers and the team’s aerial efforts, the Packers limited their involvement in free agency to the uninspiring signing of Devin Funchess. That appeared to indicate that Green Bay would invest at least one early-round draft selection on a wide receiver during the NFL Draft. However, the team inexplicably used their initial pick on former Utah State signal caller Jordan Loveand followed up that selection by seizing A.J. Dillon in Round 2. The Packers then accomplished the incomprehensible by ignoring the wide receiver position during all nine of their draft selections.

The decision to eschew the position will not be beneficial to Rodgers, who finished eighth in attempts during 2019 (569). He had placed fifth (2018) and fourth (2016) during his two previous 16-game seasons, and Green Bay’s expanding commitment to the run make it unlikely that Rodgers will resurface among the league leaders in that category. However, these factors supply the incentive for you to target Lazard at his modest ADP, as Green Bay's receiving unit that contains a dearth of reliability beyond Adams and Lazard. Allison will be running routes for the Lions. Valdez-Scantling is experiencing a sustained career free fall, and Funchess is at best a marginal threat to pilfer targets. This places Lazard in position to absorb the second highest target share behind Adams, while providing you with an opportunity to attain outstanding value during Round 16 of your drafts.

More Best-Ball League Strategy




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note Featured Football Featured Homepage NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

ADP Arbitrage - Best-Ball Draft Values

As we continue our progression toward the highly-anticipated regular season, the team at RotoBaller continues to generate news, data-fueled analysis, and updated rankings that provide your pathway to effective draft preparations and roster modifications. That includes our commitment toward supplying you with the resources that you need in order to construct teams that will contain a favorable percentage of productive components in the Best-Ball format.

You are already aware that the decisions you make during each round of your Best-Ball drafts are critical. You are presented with the advantage of avoiding all forms of in-season roster management. However, that also leaves you without a waiver wire if your players are sidelined, or are unable to deliver the level of production that you envisioned. This article will improve your chances of maximizing each selection by locating players that should surpass the expectations of their current ADPs.

These performers currently remain available beyond Round 7 in most drafts. But their eventual output could provide the opportunity to bypass other players of the same position who are being selected earlier during your draft process. Any doubts regarding the importance of capitalizing on each opportunity throughout the entire selection process should be eviscerated by a reminder that Lamar Jackson (ADP116), Austin Ekeler (ADP75). DeVante Parker (ADP194), D.J. Chark (ADP234), and Darren Waller (ADP158) were all available after Round 7 in FFPC drafts last August.

 

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones (QB14/ADP114) or Deshaun Watson (QB5/ADP68)

Some owners are unable to resist the temptation of seizing Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes early in their drafts, while others prefer to target one of the four quarterbacks with ADPs in Round 5-6. (Dak Prescott/Kyler Murray/Russell Wilson/Watson). But if you are willing to exercise patience until Round 9, Jones provides a low-end QB1 alternative that allows you to address the critical running back and wide receiver positions until that point in your draft process.

Jones exploded onto the landscape during the first start of his rookie season, by generating 336 yards through the air, 28 more on the ground, and also producing four touchdowns.

That solidified his status as the Giants’ starter for 11 of the team's final 13 matchups, although an ankle issue cemented Jones to the sidelines in Weeks 14-15. He still assembled 3,027 yards, (232.8 per game), and finished eighth in play-action completion percentage during his (69.4%). Jones also ranked third in aggressiveness according to NextGenStats (22.4), and finished sixth among quarterbacks with 21.5 rushing yards per game. It was also encouraging that he tied for fifth in passing touchdowns after ascending into the lineup.

Weeks 3-17 Passing TD INT ATT YDS
Jameis Winston 31 27 565 4707
Lamar Jackson 29 6 344 2531
Russell Wilson 26 5 461 3615
Drew Brees 25 2 330 2571
Daniel Jones 24 12 455 3010
Kirk Cousins 24 4 402 3275
Dak Prescott 23 10 534 4228
Aaron Rodgers 23 4 505 3590
Jimmy Garoppolo 23 11 424 3516
Carson Wentz 23 5 525 3495
Deshaun Watson 23 11 436 3425
Ryan Tannehill 22 6 286 2742
Matt Ryan 21 9 527 3842
Jared Goff 20 15 559 4169
Philip Rivers 20 18 521 3989
Baker Mayfield 20 17 461 3217
Derek Carr 19 6 449 3597
Tom Brady 19 8 549 3452
Ryan Fitzpatrick 19 9 452 3255
Patrick Mahomes 19 5 407 3210
Kyler Murray 18 11 448 3065

Jones also finished seventh among signal-callers in rushing yards after he elevated into the starting lineup.

Weeks 3-17 Rushing ATT YDS TD
Lamar Jackson 157 1080 7
Kyler Murray 87 527 4
Josh Allen 92 451 7
Deshaun Watson 74 368 5
Russell Wilson 65 312 3
Gardner Minshew 60 282 0
Daniel Jones 44 274 2
Carson Wentz 55 235 0
Ryan Fitzpatrick 52 229 4
Jameis Winston 50 228 1
Patrick Mahomes 41 217 2
Dak Prescott 43 196 3
Jacoby Brissett 46 194 4
Ryan Tannehill 41 187 4
Aaron Rodgers 42 175 1
Mitchell Trubisky 44 174 2
Jeff Driskel 22 151 1
Baker Mayfield 28 141 3
Matt Ryan 30 120 1

His ball security represents an area that needs improvement, as he tossed 12 interceptions, and accumulated 18 fumbles. But Jones will benefit from the presence of elite playmaker Saquon Barkley, who finished seventh among backs with 5.6 targets per game. Jones’ three-pronged arsenal at wide receiver can deliver respectable production in any given matchup (Darius Slayton/Golden Tate/Sterling Shepard), while Evan Engram is a highly skilled weapon whenever he eludes his injury-laden history (14 missed games). This should instill confidence that Jones will sustain low-end QB1 production, while only requiring the investment of his Round 9 ADP.

Watson can still function as an asset for your roster. But he will enter Week 1 with challenges at wide receiver that are not shared by other quarterbacks being selected in Rounds 5-6. Murray will benefit from the arrival of Watson’s former teammate DeAndre Hopkins, while Prescott received an enormous injection of talent (CeeDee Lamb) that only adds to his potent collection of options. The 31-year old Wilson continues to thrive despite the constraints of Seattle’s offensive approach and will also operate with Tyler Lockett and a rapidly improving D.K. Metcalf.

Unfortunately for Watson, he will be performing with an enormous obstacle that was constructed by his own head coach. Bill O’Brien extracted his most critical weapon, which will force Watson to operate without an option that offers the proficiency and consistency that he received from Hopkins. Houston's refurbished unit will deliver the potential for speed. But there is risk in presuming that his remaining options can remain on the field with enough consistency to deploy it.

Will Fuller’s big-play potential has consistently been circumvented by his inability to evade lingering health issues, which has propelled his running total of missed games to 22 during his first four seasons. Brandin Cooks accumulated 348 targets, 223 receptions, and 3,459 yards from 2016-2018. However, his forgettable 2019 season included his lowest target (72), reception (42), and yardage totals (583) since 2014. He has also absorbed five concussions during his career.  Randall Cobb has only surpassed 1,000 yards once in nine seasons (2014), while there is no justification in expecting Kenny Stills to elevate beyond his usual inconsistency. Watson will also perform behind an offensive line that finished just 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass protection rankings and provides reasons for concern beyond left tackle Laremy Tunsil.

 

Running Backs

Zack Moss (RB46/ADP120) or Devin Singletary (RB25/ADP48)  

This is not a dismissal of Singletary’s elusiveness or his accomplishments as a rookie. He overcame an early-season hamstring issue to finish sixth among all backs in rushing yards from Weeks 9-15 (79.6 per game/4.8 per carry). Singletary also performed on 72.4% of the offensive snaps, while the eternally youthful Frank Gore registered an average of 27.5% during Singletary’s most proficient span.

When it became apparent that the Bills were not including Gore on their 2020 roster, this fueled speculation that the 5’7”, 200-pound Singletary might function as Buffalo’s lead back during his second season. This would have vaulted him into top-15 RB consideration if it had occurred.

However, his value plunged when Buffalo secured Moss with the 86th overall pick in April’s draft. The injection of Moss into the equation has ensured the continuation of a two-man touch distribution within Buffalo’s backfield. It also creates the likelihood that he will exceed the usage that was attained by the 37-year old Gore in 2019 (179 touches/166 attempts/35% snap count).

It also creates a considerable incentive for bypassing Singletary at his lofty ADP. The second-year back is still being selected in Round 4, when wide receivers Robert WoodsCooper Kupp, and Metcalf are attainable for your rosters. Moss remains available seven rounds later, even though he appears destined to procure a significant workload.

The 5’10”, 200-pound Moss assembled 3,685 yards on 628 attempts during his final three seasons with Utah (5.87 per attempt). He also produced 36 rushing touchdowns during that span, while accruing 1,400+ yards from scrimmage during both seasons in which he performed during 13 matchups (1,416/1,804). He became the first player in school history to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in three different seasons, while Moss was also named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year during 2019. He also fumbled just one time in 2019, while losing a total of four during his tenure as a starter.

He is not a burner. But he did improve his 40 time in March (4.52), after managing just 4.65 during the NFL Combine. He is a physical runner who moves with sufficient power to commandeer opportunities in the red zone. This should relegate Singletary to third among Bills in red zone attempts for a second consecutive year. Singletary's 18 carries near the goal line trailed both Gore (25) and Josh Allen (21) in 2019, and Singletary could encounter difficulty reaching his 2019 total. Buffalo GM Brandon Beane has equipped Allen with the most talented cluster of receivers since his arrival in 2018 (Stefon Diggs/John Brown/Cole Beasley). But the Bills should still rely heavily on their ground game when positive game scripts develop. This should occur with frequency as Buffalo’s formidable defensive unit should keep all matchups close.

There are too many factors in this restructured backfield that will place restraints on Singletary's involvement. That should compel owners to avoid him at his ADP (48). But Moss presents appealing value at his Round 11 ADP.  

Jordan Howard (RB40/ADP100) or Le’Veon Bell (RB22/ADP38)

As your drafts advance into Round 9, you can locate Howard among your available options. He was the 10th back to be selected during the 2016 NFL Draft, then was promptly entrusted with 252 attempts as a rookie. He capitalized on that massive workload by finishing second only to Ezekiel Elliott in rushing yards during his first season (1,313). He also eclipsed 100 yards in seven different contests which propelled him to ninth in standard scoring. His rushing production has consistently declined since that initial season, which culminated with last year’s career-worst output (525). However, his overall yardage and touchdown totals remain favorable after four seasons.

He is now primed to experience a statistical resurgence during his first year with Miami. Howard should be presented with the opportunity to secure early-down responsibilities while sharing touches with former 49er Matt Breida. Howard will also supply the Dolphins’ ground game with a steady resource while raising the effectiveness of an anemic rushing attack that ranked 32nd in yardage (72.3 per game), and tied for 31st in yards per attempt (3.3) during 2019.

While Howard is projected to operate in a timeshare with Breida, Bell is the theoretical lead back in New York. But what should be a cavernous path toward an extensive workload could suddenly shift to production-inhibiting restraints at any point during the season. The former Steeler is vulnerable toward having his value negatively impacted due to questionable usage by Adam Gase. During his three healthy seasons from 2014-2017, Bell finished among the top three in PPR scoring, while assembling 3,920 yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground. He also collected 243 receptions and 2,125 yards as a receiving weapon. But those exceptional seasons should be extracted from your current draft planning due to the enormous disparity between his previous situation with Pittsburgh, and his precarious tenure under the direction of an increasingly maligned Gase.

Bell was entrusted with a sizable workload during 2019, as his 245 attempts placed him 11th overall. But he was relegated to just 24th in rushing yardage (789), as a byproduct of his concerning average of 3.2 yards per attempt. Bell was functioning behind an offensive line that ranked 31st in Football Outsiders’ run blocking ratings, which also contributed to the Jets’ ranking of 31st in both rushing offense (78.6 yards per game) and rushing touchdowns (6). The highly deficient unit was bolstered by offseason addition of Mekhi Becton, Greg Van Roten, George Fant, and Connor McGovern onto the roster.

However, New York also added Gore and drafted former Florida Gator Lamical Perine. The revamped depth chart will reunite Gore with Gase while increasing the likelihood that Gase will subject his most talented back to ill-conceived restrictions with his workload. This would keep him from procuring the mammoth touch total that some are anticipating.  It would also result in Howard receiving a workload that matches Bell's. You can avoid potential disappointment by eschewing Bell at his current ADP, and targeting Howard in Round 9.

 

Wide Receivers

Mecole Hardman (WR42/ADP123) or Courtland Sutton (WR18/ADP51)

41 receivers are being selected before Hardman. This presents owners with a tantalizing option in Round 11, as he delivers the potential for a statistical explosion during any matchup. That should also ignite interest in the advantages of including him on Best-Best rosters, where Hardman’s inconsistent production will be less impactful. His big-play capabilities were unfurled slowly during his rookie season (41 targets/26 receptions/538 yards), as Hardman’s operated within a talent-rich Kansas City offense.

He did generate six touchdowns and collected nine receptions of 20+ yards. But his blazing speed should be unleashed with greater propensity as his growth curve progresses. Hardman did lead all receivers in yards after catch per reception, while also pacing his position in both yards per target (13.1) and yards per reception (20.7) among receivers that accrued 40+ targets. Even though Clyde Edwards-Helaire has joined Kansas City’s potent assemblage of weapons, Hardman’s increased target share should be built at the expense of returning veterans Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson, while his home run ability will pay dividends during the season.

While Hardman supplies enticing value at his current ADP. Sutton is being selected 72 slots earlier. He was cemented as Denver’s primary receiving weapon last season, while his WR1 status propelled him to the NFL lead in percentage share of the team’s air yards (42.93).

Sutton’s usage and production also surged impressively during his second season, as he finished 15th in targets (125/7.8 per game), 19th in PPR scoring, 17th in yardage (1,112), seventh in red-zone targets, and 16th in air yards (1,436). Sutton was also 17th overall in completed air yards (749), and 11th in yards per route (2.48).

These numbers were also attained while he operated with Joe Flacco, and Brandon Allen under center for 11 matchups. Sutton was 16th in targets after 12 contests (85/7.7 per game), and was 13th overall in yardage (832/75.6 per game) during that span.

Weeks 1-12 Targets Yards/Targ Recepts Yards
Michael Thomas 124 10 104 1242
Chris Godwin 98 10.9 70 1071
Mike Evans 105 9.9 62 1043
Julio Jones 101 9.4 64 950
D.J. Moore 103 8.8 68 905
Amari Cooper 81 10.9 56 886
Cooper Kupp 104 8.5 67 880
Stefon Diggs 65 13.5 46 880
John Brown 89 9.6 58 856
Jarvis Landry 97 8.7 59 843
DeAndre Hopkins 112 7.5 81 839
D.J. Chark 91 9.2 56 834
Courtland Sutton 85 9.8 50 832
Tyler Lockett 78 10.7 63 831
Julian Edelman 112 7.2 76 809
Keenan Allen 107 7.4 70 796
Kenny Golladay 80 9.9 43 792
Odell Beckham 97 8 54 776
Allen Robinson 96 8 63 764

Denver transitioned to Drew Lock in Week 13, and Sutton’s usage remained sizable (8 targets per game). But even though his level of opportunity remained favorable, his yards per game and yards per target averages declined noticeably during his five games with Lock.

Weeks 1-12 Without Lock

Targets Targs/Game Yards Yards/Targ Yards/Game Recepts Recepts/Game
85 7.7 832 9.8 75.6 50 4.5

Weeks 13-17 With Lock

Targets Targs/Game Yards Yards/Targ Yards/Game Recepts Recepts/Game
40 8 280 7 56 22 4.4

Denver only ranked 28th in passing during 2019 (194.7 yards per game), as DaeSean Hamilton finished second behind Sutton with substandard numbers (52 targets/28 receptions/297 yards). John Elway addressed this deficiency by securing Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler during the draft. But the newcomers will combine with Noah Fant to supply legitimate competition for Sutton.

This could ensure a reduction in targets and output for Sutton, who is also dependent on Lock to effectively spearhead the refurbished attack. The potential for this statistical dropoff is a factor to consider before you deploy an early fifth-fourth round selection on Sutton.

Christian Kirk (WR38/ADP112) or Keenan Allen (WR21/ADP58)

Kirk was included in my free agency losers at his position, following the unexpected arrival of Hopkins. However, that conclusion was focused on Kirk’s diminished prospects of functioning as Arizona’s WR1 due to the presence of the former Texan. Kirk is still positioned to accumulate favorable usage and production within the Cardinals’ reenergized attack.

Kirk was sidelined for three matchups last season (ankle), but still finishing second on the team in targets (108), receptions (68) and receiving yardage (709). His team-high 8.3 targets per game average included eight games in which he captured 8+, while his per-game averages in receptions (5.2) and yardage (54.5) would have expanded his season totals to 83 receptions and 872 yards over 16 games.

His path to a significant rise in output is encumbered by the addition of Hopkins. But he still presents greater potential as a frequent contributor to weekly scoring totals than an assortment of receivers that are being selected before him. While Kirk is functioning in an ascending attack that will capitalize on his capabilities, Allen will be performing within a transformed offense that will reduce his opportunity to replicate the numbers that he has delivered since 2017 (444 targets/303 receptions/ 3,788 yards).

Allen has been a highly productive roster component while finishing as a top-6 scorer in two of the last three seasons. But he now enters his first season without Philip Rivers, while transitioning to signal callers that will not distribute the ball with the same volume that that enabled Allen to flourish with his former quarterback.

The Chargers also appear primed to increase their reliance on the ground game, which creates another obstacle that should prohibit Allen from approaching the numbers that owners have been accustomed to. LA ranked sixth in pass play percentage during 2019 (63%), and the Chargers finished among the top 14 in that category in five of the past six seasons.

However, Shane Steichen orchestrated the offense for eight games after Ken Whisenhunt was jettisoned as coordinator in late October. The Chargers had averaged 20 attempts per game with Whisenhunt directing the offense. But that average rose to 26 per game after Steichen ascended into playcalling responsibilities. He now becomes the architect for LA's attack and should diminish the team's dependence on passing, while placing restraints on Allen's opportunities.

Allen's acumen as a route runner will not be impacted by the impending changes with LA’s personnel and the team's strategic approach. But his numbers definitely will. The alterations in Allen’s environment have supplied the incentive to bypass him at his current ADP. But Kirk should contribute to his owners’ scoring totals with enough frequency to supply an appealing Best-Ball target in Round 10.

 

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (TE11/ADP82) or Zach Ertz (TE4/ADP36)

We are steadily emerging from what had been the annual nightmare of contending with the tight end position. Owners are still presented with several elite options (Travis Kelce/George Kittle), while Mark Andrews has ascended beyond Zach Ertz as the next logical candidate that should be targeted. But the decision-making process beyond those early-round options has become less problematic due to an influx of possibilities in Rounds 7-12 that can become productive resources on your rosters.

This collection of choices includes Mike GesickiNoah Fant, Dallas GoedertT.J. Hockenson, Austin Hooper, Jared Cook, and Hayden Hurst. But this breakdown will focus on a high profile veteran who has resurfaced in a new environment.

The 31-year old Gronkowski returns after a one-year hiatus and should extend his legacy by accruing a respectable level of fantasy scoring with the Buccaneers. His prolific career is already brimming with historic accomplishments that were achieved during his nine seasons with Tom Brady.

Even though he was absent from football in 2019, the 5-time Pro Bowler will reconvene with his former quarterback within a Bruce Arians offense. This will enable Gronkowski to operate as a TE1 for owners while expanding his career total of 79 touchdowns. There is every reason to invest in his remaining talent and his track record with Brady - particularly at his Round 7 ADP (82). Exercising this degree of patience when selecting your tight end provides the opportunity to address other positions. But it will also involve sidestepping the options that will be available during the earlier rounds.

Since only four tight ends are being selected prior to Round 5, we will examine the advantage of bypassing the 30-year old Ertz. As with several players that were mentioned previously, this is not an indictment on Ertz’ existing talent or his prospects of performing as a consistent point producer. Ertz has averaged 124 targets, 86 receptions, and 914 yards since 2015 while finishing among the top four in PPR scoring during each of the last three seasons. He has also eclipsed 9 targets per game in each of his last two seasons, averaged at least 7.5 per game since 2015, and produced 22 touchdowns since 2017.

While he could finish among the top four in scoring during 2020, the steady ascension of Goedert during 2019 (87 targets/58 receptions/607 yards/5 touchdowns) looms as a conceivable threat to reduce Ertz’ opportunities. The addition of dynamic rookie Jalen Reagor can also impact his usage, as can the prospective return of 33-year DeSean Jackson. This provides your motivation to target Gronkowski, whose track record of high-quality production vaults him atop the burgeoning list of options that will be attainable after Round 7. It should be mentioned that he remains available until Round 9 in NFBC drafts (ADP104).

More Best-Ball League Strategy




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note Featured Football NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Best-Ball Tight Ends: Finding Sleepers with "12" Personnel

You have to draft at least two players at each position -- yes, even defense and (blech) kicker -- to cover your best-ball roster because you can't make in-season moves. I'm not one to draft two tight ends in most typical leagues, but I will in TE-bonus setups like FFPC contests, the Scott Fish Bowl, and best-ball games.

This isn't to say you have to pay up for both spots (or all three, if the roster is deeper). Handle the position as you normally would -- pay up for Travis Kelce, wait for the sleepers like the Atlanta Falcons' Hayden Hurst -- but that second option could give you an added bonus.

One way to maximize the late-round goodness is to look at teams who use a lot of two-tight-end sets: "12 Personnel" (one running back, two tight ends) and, to a lesser degree, "22" (two running backs, two tight ends). The fact that a team's second TE is on the field more often can give him more opportunities to steal a touchdown or big play. Let's take a look at some of last year's leaders in frequency and efficiency related to 12 personnel. (Thanks to Sharp Football stats for the handy numbers.)

 

Diving into 12 Personnel Usage

Only 5 teams sent more than 40 targets to tight ends in the '12' during 2019:

  1. Philadelphia Eagles: 161
  2. Baltimore Ravens: 60
  3. Kansas City Chiefs: 59
  4. Minnesota Vikings: 54
  5. Houston Texans: 44

That Eagles gap. Wow. Of course, Dallas Goedert is not technically a "sleeper," considering he's typically among the top 15 TEs off the board.

I will grant that some of these aren't the vast sample sizes that we want in scouting offensive tendencies, but considering the volatility of picking best-ball depth, they belong in the discussion.

Overall use of 12 Personnel, 2019 (Sharp Football)

Rk Team Overall % of plays
1 Eagles 52
2 Vikings 34
3 Texans 30
4 Titans 29
5 Chiefs 28
6 Colts 26
7 Dolphins 24
8 Cardinals 23
9 Browns 23
10 Buccaneers 23

% of pass plays using "12 Personnel," 2019 (Sharp Football)

Rk Team 12 Pass Play% QB Rating
1 Eagles 51 94.4
2 Vikings 44 105.4
3 Texans 27 102.3
4 Chiefs 26 99.2
5 Ravens 24 106.4
6 Colts 23 93
T7 Titans 21 120.3
T7 Dolphins 21 67.1
9 Buccaneers 17 106.3
T10 Saints 17 131.3
T10 Raiders 17 103.3

% of TE targets among pass plays from "12 Personnel," 2019 (Sharp Football)

Rk Team % TE Targets
1 Eagles 66
2 Vikings 53
T3 Cardinals 38
T3 Texans 38
5 Chiefs 35
T6 Steelers 32
T6 Dolphins 32
T6 Patriots 32
T9 Ravens 31
T9 Browns 31

Thoughts:

 

Sleepers from 12 Personnel

As for what the season-long 12 frequencies tell us, I've been prompted to target a few names who could be on the field in multi-TE sets, especially in the red zone.

These are either TE2 options are "wait-and-see" members of a committee.

Irv Smith, Minnesota Vikings

Kyle Rudolph is still around, and Kevin Stefanski is no longer in charge of this offense. (More on him later.) But new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak should carry on with much of the pass-game success that finally helped Kirk Cousins. (He thrived when throwing to TEs in the 12, with a 119.9 passer rating.)

Though Kyle Rudolph saw 22.4% of the Vikings' red-zone targets last year, Smith wasn't far behind at 20.4% while also planting two in the end zone.

Kubiak's base offense doesn't lean heavily on a third wideout, and the Vikes traded Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, opening up 94 targets from 2019. Behind Adam Thielen and rookie Justin Jefferson, Smith can carve out a role in tandem with Rudolph, who's on a contract year and likely on his way out of town following 2020.

Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts

Here's another copy-paste option that could benefit from a new system. Frank Reich and Nick Sirianni love 2-TE sets and need a replacement for Eric Ebron to complement Jack Doyle.

Burton said his quick return from the sidelines last year was due to a misdiagnosis. His hasty activation might've exacerbated his hip injury, for which he underwent surgery in December.

Many may be burned by him and therefore swearing off drafting him. In redrafts, sure. But assuming health, his versatility in where to line up could help the Colts add receiving firepower as sophomore Parris Campbell and rookie Michael Pittman Jr. continue developing behind T.Y. Hilton.

New QB Philip Rivers reunites with Reich and Sirianni; of course, he loves to check down -- specifically to tight ends. 

While it's a mistake to blindly slide Ebron's overachieving production (13 touchdowns in 2018) to him, Burton could prove more active than originally thought.

Speaking of the former Colt:

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers

A year after Vance McDonald enjoyed fantasy helium, Pittsburgh gets an even more skilled offensive weapon.

As ESPN's Brooke Pryor writes:

Adding Ebron gives Ben Roethlisberger a consistent red zone threat and a receiving target over the middle. Ebron is one of only six tight ends to score more than 20 red zone touchdowns in the past five seasons -- a welcome addition for a team that ranked dead last in red zone scoring in 2019. Ebron also has 3,195 career receiving yards and 27 touchdowns.

While questions may arise about how Diontae Johnson and James Washington will split targets, Ebron could be a wrench many fantasy players are forgetting -- one who could spike with one or two touchdowns in a given week.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

I would not jump to draft either Njoku or new arrival and presumed No. 1 Austin Hooper in a normal league, but I wouldn't be upset to try either as a member of a best-ball duo. Kevin Stefanski was in charge of that Vikings offense that ranked second in the 12 pass percentage last year, and now he brings that to Baker Mayfield and the rest of Cleveland's offense.

Given the way that Hooper has been strongly valued in my early best-ball activities, I lean toward having Njoku as the candidate to have 3-4 TE1-capable games, instead of paying up, relatively, to trust Hooper to replicate the production he spun under a much more favorable situation as a Falcon.

 

Bonus Dart Throws

Jace Sternberger, Green Bay Packers

Jimmy Graham's departure opens things up for Sternberger already.

The Packers overall fielded a '12' formation on 20% of their plays, the 13th-highest frequency, but they attempted a pass on just 14% (middle of the pack). If they flip more of those into aerial attempts, that could increase Sternberger's chances to contribute in the red zone.

Tyler Eifert, Jacksonville Jaguars

He followed his former Bengals OC to Duval. New head coach Jay Gruden has leaned on the tight end position, and Eifert scored 13 touchdowns under his watch in 2015.

Of course, Josh Oliver is a prime dynasty watch-list candidate who could surprise, and James O'Shaughnessy (knee) returns from last year's season-ending injury, so this is a crowded room.

Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, New England Patriots

At 6-foot-3, 257 pounds, Asiasi is more of a true tight end than Keene, who could be a James Develin-type who flips around where he lines up.

New England will probably continue embracing the 12, given Jarrett Stidham's ongoing development at quarterback and the club's likely run-first mentality. The occasional pop off a play-action throw could lead to some best-ball success by Asiasi.

Still, this is more of a "pick up during the season" thing than a redraft priority.

Will Dissly, Seattle Seahawks

Greg Olsen's in town, sure, but the 35-year-old has flirted with retirement and broadcasting; this could be a Jason Witten situation, with him merely occupying space.

Dissly, meanwhile, was firmly a starter-worthy fantasy TE for much of 2019 before a season-ending Achilles rupture. I don't envision him vanishing altogether. Though you don't want to predict when he blows up, a best-ball mentality should embrace that possibility.

Kahale Warring, Houston Texans

It's a shame that Houston's picture isn't clearer given how high they rank in 12 personnel usage.

Jordan Akins and Darren Fells filled the Texans' need at tight end last year, when then-rookie Warring suffered a hamstring and concussion, which erased his fantasy season as he parked on injured reserve.

Warring has been working out with Deshaun Watson, and at 6-foot-5, 252 pounds, he possesses the makeup to chew up the QB's attention inside the 20. However, when we remember that Jordan Thomas is still around to make this a four-person battle, the winner of this is probably best left as a post-draft pickup.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football & NFL Rookies 2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note NFL Analysis NFL Draft Radio RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles Video

Tight Ends to Target in Best Ball Drafts!

RotoBaller fantasy football analyst Michael Florio discusses the TEs that you should be targeting in best ball drafts!

Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!

Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays and Sundays from 9-11 PM ET. You can also find new weekly shows on the site under RotoBaller Radio podcasts.

 

TEs to Target in Best Ball Drafts

In this episode of RotoBaller Radio, we go through TEs that are strong values in best ball drafts.

Players discussed include:

E"

 

Thanks for listening to today's episode! Be sure to tune in throughout the week, and to also follow RotoBaller on Twitter, YouTube and iTunes for the latest fantasy news and analysis.

Win Big with RotoBaller in 2020!

More RotoBaller Radio Videos and Podcasts




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football & NFL Rookies 2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note NFL Analysis NFL Draft Radio RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles Video

Wide Receivers to Target in Best Ball Drafts!

RotoBaller fantasy football analyst Michael Florio discusses the WRs that you should be targeting in best ball drafts!

Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!

Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays and Sundays from 9-11 PM ET. You can also find new weekly shows on the site under RotoBaller Radio podcasts.

 

WRs to Target in Best Ball Drafts

In this episode of RotoBaller Radio, we go through WRs that are strong values in best ball drafts.

Players discussed include:

<div class="iframe-container">"</div>

Thanks for listening to today's episode! Be sure to tune in throughout the week, and to also follow RotoBaller on Twitter, YouTube and iTunes for the latest fantasy news and analysis.

Win Big with RotoBaller in 2020!

More RotoBaller Radio Videos and Podcasts




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis Editor Note Featured Homepage NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Wide Receiver Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis

We are advancing through June with rising optimism that a 17-game regular season will eventually unfold. The team at RotoBaller shares your enthusiasm while providing you with non-stop news, and analysis. This is designed to help you prepare for upcoming drafts, and reshape your current rosters. We are also making continual updates to our tiered rankings in every format.

That includes the enormously popular Best-Ball leagues, which present the opportunity to construct your teams without requiring any form of in-season management. This makes it essential for you to assemble rosters that can withstand injuries and insufficient production without the benefit of a waiver wire.

That is why we also supply you with a detailed breakdown of our rankings, which incorporates analysis on the players to target during your draft process, and the performers to avoid at their current ADPs. This article will focus on wide receivers which will perform an integral role in your efforts to capture league championships. We will continue to update rankings in every format throughout the offseason and you can find the latest rankings here.

 

WR Best-Ball Rankings

Position Rank Position Tier Player Name Overall Rank Overall Tier
1 1 Michael Thomas 5 1
2 1 Tyreek Hill 9 1
3 1 Davante Adams 10 2
4 1 Chris Godwin 11 2
5 1 Julio Jones 12 2
6 1 DeAndre Hopkins 14 2
7 2 Kenny Golladay 18 2
8 2 Mike Evans 19 2
9 2 Amari Cooper 21 3
10 2 D.J. Moore 23 3
11 3 Odell Beckham Jr. 27 3
12 3 Adam Thielen 28 3
13 3 Cooper Kupp 29 4
14 3 Allen Robinson II 30 4
15 3 JuJu Smith-Schuster 33 4
16 3 A.J. Brown 35 4
17 4 Courtland Sutton 38 4
18 4 D.K. Metcalf 40 4
19 4 Calvin Ridley 43 4
20 4 D.J. Chark 44 4
21 4 Keenan Allen 45 4
22 4 Robert Woods 46 4
23 4 Terry McLaurin 48 4
24 4 Deebo Samuel 50 5
25 4 DeVante Parker 52 5
26 4 A.J. Green 53 5
27 4 Stefon Diggs 54 5
28 4 T.Y. Hilton 55 5
29 5 Tyler Lockett 59 6
30 5 Jarvis Landry 62 6
31 5 Michael Gallup 64 6
32 5 Tyler Boyd 65 6
33 5 Julian Edelman 71 6
34 5 Mike Williams 72 6
35 6 Diontae Johnson 81 7
36 6 Will Fuller V 82 7
37 6 Darius Slayton 83 7
38 6 Marquise Brown 84 7
39 7 Emmanuel Sanders 88 8
40 7 Jerry Jeudy 90 8
41 7 Sterling Shepard 93 8
42 7 Christian Kirk 95 8
43 7 Marvin Jones 96 8
44 7 Breshad Perriman 97 8
45 7 Robby Anderson 99 8
46 7 John Brown 100 9
47 7 Brandin Cooks 102 9
48 7 Anthony Miller 103 9
49 7 CeeDee Lamb 107 9
50 8 Alshon Jeffery 113 10
51 8 Golden Tate 115 10
52 8 Curtis Samuel 120 10
53 8 Justin Jefferson 123 10
54 8 N'Keal Harry 124 10
55 8 Jamison Crowder 130 10
56 8 Mecole Hardman 131 10
57 9 Preston Williams 136 11
58 9 Michael Pittman Jr. 142 11
59 9 Sammy Watkins 143 11
60 9 James Washington 144 11
61 9 DeSean Jackson 149 12
62 9 Larry Fitzgerald 151 12
63 9 Henry Ruggs III 152 12
64 10 Tee Higgins 162 13
65 10 Dede Westbrook 163 13
66 10 Steven Sims 166 13
67 10 Randall Cobb 171 13
68 10 Tyrell Williams 173 13
69 10 Hunter Renfrow 180 14
70 10 Cole Beasley 182 14
71 10 Jalen Reagor 188 14
72 10 Corey Davis 191 14
73 10 Kenny Stills 192 14
74 10 Bryan Edwards 194 14
75 10 Allen Lazard 197 14
76 10 Brandon Aiyuk 198 14
77 10 Parris Campbell 202 15
78 10 Josh Reynolds 203 15
79 10 John Ross II 206 15
80 10 Albert Wilson 211 15
81 10 Andy Isabella 214 15
82 11 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 220 15
83 11 Danny Amendola 223 16
84 11 Auden Tate 224 16
85 11 Phillip Dorsett 225 16
86 11 Chris Conley 229 16
87 11 Russell Gage 231 16
88 11 Denzel Mims 237 16
89 11 Devin Funchess 242 16
90 11 Tre'Quan Smith 244 16
91 11 Laviska Shenault Jr. 252 16

 

Tier 1

Michael Thomas, Tyreek HillDavante Adams, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins

Thomas has delivered a steady increase in receptions and receiving yards during each of his four NFL seasons while accruing 32 touchdowns during that span. His name was prominent atop a number of major receiving categories during his career-best 2019 season. That includes his WR1 finish in scoring, targets (185), receptions (149), and receiving yards (1,735). He also finished first in red zone targets (26), team target share (33), and also generated more 100-yard performances than any other receiver (10). Replicating those numbers will present a challenge. But there should be no hesitation in making Thomas the first selection at his position.

Hill entered Week 6 with just two targets, two receptions, and 16 scoreless yards. But he overcame his protracted shoulder issue to average 8.0 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 77 yards per game from Weeks 8-17. He also finished fourth overall in air yards per snap and produced seven touchdowns during his final 11 matchups. The dynamic Hill has now accumulated 53 receptions of 20+ yards, and 26 catches of 40+ yards since 2017. His return to health should fuel a top-five finish in yardage and touchdowns, which preserves his status as a top-four receiver during your drafts.

Adams’ lingering turf toe issue also delivered significant pain to his owners from Weeks 5-8. But his production soared following a return to health,  as he averaged 11.4 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 82.5 yards per game during Green Bay's final seven contests. He was also second in targets from Weeks 12-17 (70) and tied for the league lead in touchdowns (5). The Packers shockingly abstained from reinforcing their receiving arsenal during the draft, which leaves Adams to operate without any semblance of a threat to his WR1 responsibilities. This will allow him to commandeer an enormous target share and cements him as a Round 1 selection.

Godwin’s ascension into elite status provided enormous incentive to target him as your WR1 even before Tom Brady’s transition to Tampa. His enticing combination of size, speed, and athleticism has sustained a steady progression in usage and production from 2017-2019. That statistical rise culminated in last year’s WR2 finish, while he was also third in yardage (1,333), and touchdowns (9). Godwin led all receivers in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) and was second in DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. He is primed to flourish in his fourth season and should be selected among the first five receivers in your drafts.

Jones has accrued 9,388 yards since 2014 while averaging 1,565 per year during that span. This has propelled the 31-year old to 12,000 career yards faster than any receiver in NFL history (125 games). He has also averaged 162 targets and 104 receptions while finishing among the top seven in scoring during each of his last six seasons. There was no discernible drop off in 2019, as he finished second in targets (157) and receiving yards (1,394). He also led the NFL in air yards (1,911) tied for second in 100-yard performances and was third in receptions of 20+ (21). He remains a valuable resource that can operate as a WR1 for his owners.

It is unlikely that Hopkins will receive the massive target totals that he accumulated with Houston while operating with WR1 responsibilities in Arizona. He averaged 166 from 2015-2019 and finished among the top five in four of those five seasons. The extensive usage also propelled him to averages of 101 receptions and 1,318 yards during that sequence. That includes his output last season (104 receptions/1,165 yards), as he finished second in team target share, and third in yards before catch (1,185). His ADP has dropped three slots since his trade to the Cardinals. But he is entrenched among the top six receiving options for owners.

 

Tier 2

Kenny GolladayMike EvansAmari CooperD.J. Moore 

Golladay has operated as Detroit’s primary receiver for the past two seasons while collecting 235 targets, 135 receptions, and 2,253 yards. That includes the career-best 1,190 yards that he assembled during 2019. He also generated a league-high 11 touchdowns and soared to WR3 in standard scoring despite being limited to eight games with Matthew Stafford (back). Golladay also finished third in air yards (1,745), sixth in targeted air yards (15.4), and was second with 21 receptions of 20+ yards. Owners should be confident that Golladay can function as a WR1, and he remains available until late Round 2 in most drafts.

Evans has averaged 139 targets, 77 receptions, and 1,210 yards since 2014. He was also averaging 9.1 targets per game and leading the NFL in air yards (1,778) before his season-ending hamstring injury in Week 14. But he still finished among the top-five in both standard and PPR scoring. Evans also eclipsed 150 yards in three different matchups last season, which tied him for the league lead with Godwin. His potential to explode for massive numbers in any given week is unchanged by the arrival of Brady and remains beneficial in the Best-Ball format. This provides an opportunity to capitalize on his declining ADP (29), which has fallen four slots since mid-May.

Cooper’s ADP has descended from 28 to 34 since Dallas selected CeeDee Lamb, and the rookie’s emergence will present the proverbial mixed bag for Cooper. Opponents must account for Lamb and Michael Gallup which depletes resources that would otherwise have been focused on Cooper. But Lamb possesses enough talent to commandeer consistent targeting, and he should surpass the 14.3% target share that Randall Cobb accrued during 2019. This will lead to another season of inconsistent target totals for Cooper, who collected 8+ in eight contests and five or less in six other matchups. His overall numbers could disappoint anyone who selects him as a low-end WR1.

Moore’s collected 10+ targets during five of his seven matchups from Weeks 9-15. This secured his breakout season, while also propelling him to the league lead in targets (75/10.7 per game) and yardage (711) during that span. He was also fourth in targets (133), third in yardage (1,174) and fifth in receptions (86) from Weeks 1-15 before a concussion suddenly ended his season in Week 16. Moore will join Christian McCaffrey in comprising Carolina’s primary receiving weapons. He will remain highly productive by collecting short and intermediate throws from Teddy Bridgewater and should approach low-end WR1 status.

 

Tier 3

Odell Beckham Jr., Adam Thielen, Cooper KuppAllen Robinson II, JuJu Smith-SchusterA.J. Brown

One year ago, it appeared that Beckham was primed to excel in his new environment. But his disappointing numbers were impacted by a hernia injury, the decline in proficiency by Baker Mayfield, and the inadequacies of Freddie Kitchens as both a head coach and a play-caller. Beckham did collect 133 targets, finished fifth in air yards (1,720), and was second in offensive snaps (1017/63.6%). However, his career-worst 64.7 yards per game average was well below the average of 90.8 from 2014-2018. Kevin Stefanski’s offensive approach could launch a statistical rebound while providing justification for Beckham’s Round 3 ADP (35).

Thielen’s 2019 per game averages (4.8 targets/3.0 receptions/41.8 yards) would have placed him well outside the top 50 in each category over 16 games (77 targets/48 yards/669 yards). However, a lingering hamstring issue sidelined him for six matchups, while Minnesota’s unrelenting commitment to the run (29 attempts per game) constrained his ceiling when he was available. He will confiscate WR1 responsibilities following the departure of Stefon Diggs, which has relinquished the 94 targets that Diggs absorbed in 2019. Thielen’s primary hurdle resides with Mike Zimmer’s penchant to deploy the ground game.

Kupp was leading the NFL in targets after Week 5 (63) while averaging 12.6 targets/8.2 receptions/101 yards per game. But he did not maintain those averages from Weeks 6-17. (6.5 targets/4.8 receptions/59.6 yards per game). Kupp is currently the 10th receiver to be selected in current drafts. But Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett will commandeer enough targets to keep him from producing as a low-end WR1. However, Kupp did finish fifth in red zone targets (21), with the league’s highest team percentage (30.43). This usage near the end zone will maintain his viability as a WR2.

Only Thomas and Jones accumulated more targets than Robinson last season. (154/9.6 per game). That career-high number included a double-digit total in seven different matchups, while Robinson’s team target share of 27.1 placed him third overall. He also finished fifth in percentage share of team’s air yards, sixth in receptions (98), and 13th in yardage (1,147). Robinson just constructed his most prolific season since 2015 and remains unchallenged for Chicago’s WR1 role. He should continue to deliver highly productive outings regardless of whether Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky is under center.

There is an inherent risk in assuming that the return of Ben Roethlisberger provides an instant elixir that resurrects Smith-Schuster’s numbers to 2018 levels (166 targets/111 receptions/1,426 yards). Diontae Johnson led all first-year receivers in receptions during 2019 (59), and should only rise in relevance. 6’4”, 240-pound Chase Claypool is both an intriguing prospect and an eventual threat to secure a consistent role, while James Washington supplies another theoretical competitor for targets. Smith-Schuster enters his contract season amid uncertainty and is hardly a lock to justify his current ADP (40).

Brown’s numbers rose significantly after Ryan Tannehill became Tennessee’s starting signal-caller (6.1 targets/3.8 receptions/77.8 yards-per-game), as he ultimately paced all rookies in scoring and receiving yards (1,051). He also led all receivers in yards per target (12.5) and tied for the NFL lead in receptions of 40+ yards (8). Brown was also first in yards per targets (15.5), receiving yards (605), and touchdowns (5) from Weeks 12-17, and finished fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) – (26.4%). The 6’1”, 225-pound Brown delivers the potential to skyrocket into elite status during his second season.

 

A.J. Brown  Yards/Target Targets/Game Rec./Game Yards/Game TD
6 Games w/ Mariota  11.9 3.8 2.3 45.5 2
10 Games w/ Tannehill 12.8 6.1 3.8 77.8 6

 

Weeks 7-17 Yards  Yards/Target TDs
Michael Thomas 1,093 9.3 6
DeVante Parker 973 9.7 7
Julio Jones 927 8.9 2
Kenny Golladay 826 11.6 7
Robert Woods 779 8.9 2
A.J. Brown 778 12.8 6
Allen Robinson 770 6.9 5
Tyreek Hill 764 9.9 5
DeAndre Hopkins 763 8.1 5
D.J. Moore 750 8.7 3

 

Tier 4

Courtland Sutton, D.K. MetcalfCalvin Ridley, D.J. Chark, Keenan AllenRobert WoodsTerry McLaurinDeebo SamuelDeVante ParkerA.J. GreenStefon DiggsT.Y. Hilton 

Sutton led the NFL in percentage share of team air yards (42.93) while also finishing 15th in targets (125), and 17th in receiving yards (1,112). Denver desperately needed a receiver that would force opponents to shift resources from Sutton, and that was accomplished by the selection of Jerry Jeudy. But Sutton now encounters escalating competition for targets from Jeudy, Noah Fant, and K.J. Hamler, This creates a sizable obstacle that impedes his ability to match last year’s usage. Sutton’s diminished output in five games with Drew Lock (4.4 receptions/56 yards per game) is also a concern.

Metcalf led the 2019 rookie class in targets (100), and red-zone targets (18), as his steady growth as a receiver blended favorably with his unique combination of explosiveness and pure athleticism. He also finished second among newcomers in receptions of 40-plus yards (4), and third in both receiving yards (900) and touchdowns (7). Metcalf accrued 69 targets (6.9 per game) from Weeks 7-17, while also generating 564 yards (56.4 per game) during those contests. His proficiency should improve during his second season with Russell Wilson, while he could finish among the top 10 in red zone targets.

The Falcons did not upgrade from Russell Gage as their WR3 during the offseason. This will allow Ridley and Jones to attain sizable target shares. Ridley accrued 8.2 targets/5.6 receptions/82.1 yards per game following the departure of Mohamed Sanu, and those averages would result in 131.2 targets, 89.6 receptions, and 1,313 yards over 16 games. Ridley finished 20th in targets (93/7.2 per game), 15th in targeted air yards (1,242), and seventh in touchdowns (7) despite missing Weeks 15-17 (abdomen). He is a strong breakout candidate, with an ADP that risen from 54 to 47 since mid-May.

Chark was 15th in targets (106/8.2 per game) and seventh in air yards (1,355) after Week 14 but his effectiveness was neutralized by an ankle issue during the Jaguars’ last three contests (12 targets/52 yards). He still finished ninth in touchdowns (8), 19th in targets (118), 17th in air yards (1,413), and 12th in percentage share of team’s air yards (33.1). Chark returns to a dearth of competition for targets. This presents an enormous opportunity for the 23-year old receiver and exceptional value for owners at his sixth-round ADP (68).

Allen has not missed a game during the last three seasons. He has also finished among the top six in PPR scoring twice during that span while accumulating 444 targets, 303 receptions, and 3,788 yards. Last season he also finished sixth in targets (149), second in receptions (104), fifth in receiving yards (1,199), and 11th in air yards (1,520). However, those results were generated with Philip Rivers. Allen is 28 and physically capable of delivering excellent numbers once again. But LA’s transition at quarterback threatens his ability to sustain recent success.

Woods collected five more targets than Kupp during 2019 (139/134), and also paced the Rams in targets (92/9.2 per game), receptions (59/5.9 per game), and receiving yards (779/77.9 per game) from Weeks 6-17. This was fueled by his numbers during LA’s final six contests, when he was third among all receivers in targets (68/11.3 per game), second in receptions (45/7.5 per game), and fourth in yardage (568/94.6 per game). Woods could lead the Rams in each category this season and provides enticing value at his Round 5 ADP.

McLaurin instantly established himself as Washington’s top receiving option by capturing 16 of his 24 targets for 243 yards during his first three games. He eventually finished second among rookies in scoring (WR24), receptions (58), and yards-per-game average (65.6). McLaurin also placed sixth among all receivers in percentage share of team’s air yards (37.09) and 10th in yards-per-target average (9.9).

Wide Receivers Team %
Air Yards
Yards/Target Yards/Rec. Air Yards/Rec. 
Courtland Sutton 43 9 15.4 10.9
Michael Thomas 41.3 9.3 11.6 7.9
Stefon Diggs 41.3 12 17.9 13.4
Allen Robinson 39.2 7.4 11.7 9.3
Odell Beckham 39.1 7.8 14 9.7
Terry McLaurin 37.1 9.9 15.8 12.1
Robby Anderson 36.7 8.1 15 11.8
John Brown 36.1 9.2 14.7 12
Julio Jones 36 8.9 14.1 10.6
Emmanuel Sanders 34.5 9 13.2 9.9
DeAndre Hopkins 35.3 7.8 11.2 7.8
D.J. Chark 33.1 8.5 13.8 10
DeVante Parker 33 9.4 16.7 13.2
Kenny Golladay 32.7 10.3 18.3 14

The rookie tandem of Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden supplies the potential for eventual excitement as they grow into their roles. But McLaurin will not contend with a legitimate threat to his status as the Redskins’ WR1.

Samuel averaged just 4.2 targets, 3.0 receptions, and 31.2 yards per game during the first six games of his rookie season. But he finished 12th among all receivers in yardage (575/71.2 per game) from Weeks 10-17, while easily leading San Francisco’s wide receivers in targets (49/6.1 per game), and receptions (35/4.4 per game) during those matchups. He will enter 2020 as the 49ers’ WR1 after leading the team’s wide receivers in percentage share of air yards (20) and target share (17.2).   

Parker averaged 70 targets, 41 receptions, 554 yards, and two touchdowns during his first four seasons. But his well-documented statistical resurgence in 2019 included career highs in targets (128), receptions (72), receiving yards (1,202), and touchdowns (9). Parker’s usage and output did rise when Preston Williams’ promising rookie season ended in Week 9 (9.5 targets/5.5 receptions/100.2 yards per game). However, you can confidently target Parker near his current ADP (59).

A.J. Green averaged 9.3 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 80.5 yards per game from 2011-2017. But his last reception was registered in Week 13 of 2018. He has missed 29 games since 2016 and has repeatedly been disgruntled with the organization. He also resurfaces in a collection of weaponry that includes underrated Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, and second-round selection Tee Higgins. These factors provide your incentive to avoid selecting him before his Round 7 ADP (73).

Diggs averaged 113 targets, 78 receptions, and 976 yards from 2016-2019. He also finished second in yards per target (12.0), and percentage share of team’s air yards (41.5) last season. He will operate on the perimeter opposite John Brown, who finished eighth in percentage share of teams’ air yards (36.1) and 15th in average targeted air yards (14.2). Neither receiver will sustain the downfield production that they attained last season, which limits Diggs to low-end WR2 status.

From 2013-2018, Hilton accumulated 787 targets, 457 receptions, and 7,236 yards. But that streak abruptly ended in 2019, as Hilton was sidelined for six contests (calf) and the Colts passing attack dropped from sixth in 2018 (279 yards per game), to 30th (194.3 per game) following Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement. Hilton’s ability to remain proficient with Rivers launching passes remains uncertain.

 

Tier 5

Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry, Michael GallupTyler BoydJulian Edelman, Mike Williams,

Lockett was fourth overall with 767 yards and had already established career highs in targets (72) and receptions (59) after Week 9, But he only averaged 5.4 targets/3.3 receptions/ 41.4 yards per game from Weeks 10-17. Lockett was contending with flu and shin issues during that span. But he will not replicate those early-season numbers as Metcalf continues his ascension.

Landry’s accomplishments during 2019 remain underappreciated after he finished ninth in targets (138), fifth in red zone targets (21), and eighth in snaps (998). Gallup’s ADP has dropped from 72 to 79 since the Cowboys selected Lamb. His candidacy for a breakout season has also been eviscerated by the combined presence of Cooper and the talented rookie.

Boyd finished seventh in targets (148) and has now eclipsed 1,000 in two consecutive seasons. He also offers value at his Round 7 ADP (74) despite Green’s prospective return. Only three receivers collected more targets than Edelman last season. But he is now 34, and might not achieve chemistry with New England’s signal-callers.

Williams led the NFL in targeted air yards (17.4), experienced his first-1,000-yard season, and achieved career bests in targets (89), and receptions (49). But questions abound for Charger receivers in the post-Rivers era.

 

Tier 6

Diontae Johnson, Will Fuller, Darius Slayton, Marquise Brown

Johnson led the Steelers in targets (63) and receptions (41) from Weeks 6-17. His value could soar in an offense that can support two highly productive receivers.

Fuller was seventh in targets from Weeks 2-6 (45) and second in air yards (700) entering Week 7. But he only performed on 176 snaps during the next 10 matchups (hamstring). He could emerge as Houston’s WR1 if he can elude injuries.

Slayton is an intriguing option in Round 9 after leading all rookies in targeted air yards (14.5)  He also led the Giants in targets (53/7.6 per game) receiving yards (467), and touchdowns (5) from Weeks 10-17.

Brown was third in yardage after Week 2 (233), and averaged 8.5 targets per game entering Week 5.  He only averaged 3.6 targets/28.6 yards per game from Weeks 6-17 but delivers enticing big-play potential in the best ball format.

 

Tiers 7 and 8 

Emmanuel Sanders, Jerry Jeudy, Sterling Shepard, Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Breshad Perriman, Robby Anderson, John Brown, Brandin Cooks, Anthony Miller, CeeDee Lamb, Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, Curtis Samuel, Justin Jefferson, N'Keal Harry, Jamison Crowder, Mecole Hardman  

The receivers that are contained in Tiers 7-8 are located between  WR39 and WR55 in our rankings. But they could ascend into a higher tier or plunge further toward irrelevancy as the offseason continues.

More Best-Ball League Strategy


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note Featured Football Featured Homepage NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Running Back Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis

We have entered June with rising optimism that a 17-week regular season will eventually unfold. The team at RotoBaller shares your enthusiasm while providing you with non-stop news, and analysis. This is designed to help you prepare for upcoming drafts, and reshape your current rosters. We are also making continual updates to our tiered rankings in every format.

That includes the enormously popular Best-Ball leagues, which present the opportunity to construct your teams without requiring any form of in-season management. This makes it essential for you to assemble rosters that can withstand injuries and insufficient production without the benefit of a waiver wire.

That is why we also supply you with a detailed breakdown of our rankings, which incorporates analysis on the players to target during your draft process, and the performers to avoid at their current ADPs. This article will focus on running backs, which remain essential components toward your goal of securing league championships. We will continue to update rankings in every format throughout the offseason and you can find the latest rankings here.

 

RB Best-Ball Rankings

Position Rank Position Tier

Player Name

Overall Rank Overall Tier
1 1 Christian McCaffrey 1 1
2 1 Saquon Barkley 2 1
3 1 Ezekiel Elliott 3 1
4 1 Dalvin Cook 4 1
5 1 Joe Mixon 6 1
6 1 Alvin Kamara 7 1
7 1 Nick Chubb 8 1
8 2 Josh Jacobs 13 2
9 2 Derrick Henry 15 2
10 2 Austin Ekeler 16 2
11 2 Aaron Jones 17 2
12 2 Miles Sanders 22 3
13 2 Leonard Fournette 25 3
14 2 Todd Gurley II 26 3
15 3 Kenyan Drake 31 4
16 3 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 32 4
17 3 Melvin Gordon III 34 4
18 3 Chris Carson 36 4
19 3 Le'Veon Bell 39 4
20 3 Jonathan Taylor 41 4
21 4 Cam Akers 51 5
22 4 Mark Ingram II 56 5
23 4 David Montgomery 57 5
24 4 Devin Singletary 58 6
25 4 David Johnson 61 6
26 4 James Conner 63 6
27 5 Kareem Hunt 69 6
28 5 D'Andre Swift 70 6
29 5 J.K. Dobbins 75 7
30 5 Sony Michel 76 7
31 5 Jordan Howard 79 7
32 6 Raheem Mostert 86 7
33 6 Damien Williams 89 8
34 6 Phillip Lindsay 91 8
35 6 Ke'Shawn Vaughn 92 8
36 7 Latavius Murray 105 9
37 7 Marlon Mack 110 9
38 7 James White 116 10
39 7 Zack Moss 118 10
40 7 Tarik Cohen 119 10
41 7 Kerryon Johnson 121 10
42 7 Darrell Henderson 122 10
43 8 Tevin Coleman 129 10
44 8 Matt Breida 133 10
45 8 Ronald Jones II 135 11
46 8 Justin Jackson 137 11
47 8 Derrius Guice 138 11
48 8 Alexander Mattison 141 11
49 8 Joshua Kelley 145 11
50 8 Tony Pollard 147 11
51 9 Chase Edmonds 154 12
52 9 Darrynton Evans 157 12
53 9 Adrian Peterson 159 13
54 9 Lynn Bowden Jr. 164 13
55 9 Nyheim Hines 165 13
56 9 Jamaal Williams 168 13
57 9 Duke Johnson 176 13
58 9 A.J. Dillon 177 13
59 9 Boston Scott 184 14
60 9 Ryquell Armstead 189 14
61 9 Justice Hill 190 14
62 9 Royce Freeman 195 14
63 9 Malcolm Brown 201 14
64 9 Antonio Gibson 204 15
65 9 Rashaad Penny 208 15
66 9 Giovani Bernard 210 15
67 10 Ito Smith 215 15
68 10 Gus Edwards 218 15
69 10 Benny Snell Jr. 221 16
70 10 Carlos Hyde 222 16
71 10 Darwin Thompson 230 16
72 10 Jalen Richard 241 16
73 10 Brian Hill 243 16
74 11 Devonta Freeman 249 17
75 11 Peyton Barber 250 17
76 11 Damien Harris 251 17
77 11 Jaylen Samuels 254 17
78 11 Qadree Ollison 258 17
79 11 DeeJay Dallas 264 18
80 11 DeAndre Washington 266 18
81 11 Chris Thompson 268 18
82 12 Lamical Perine 270 18
83 12 Rex Burkhead 278 18
84 12 Dare Ogunbowale 281 18
85 12 Eno Benjamin 282 18
86 12 Lamar Miller 288 18
87 12 Dion Lewis 289 18

 

Tier 1

Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin KamaraNick Chubb   

McCaffrey escorted many of his owners to league championships during 2019, as anyone who drafted him reaped the benefits of his astronomical production. He generated the highest number of fantasy points at any position in PPR leagues while averaging 10 points per game more than any other back. McCaffrey also led the NFL in all-purpose yardage, (2,392), including the 1,387 that he accrued on the ground. He also capitalized on his league-best opportunity share (91.5) to produce 15 rushing touchdowns, and lead all backs in targets (142), and receiving yards (1,005). McCaffrey became the first running back to collect 100+ receptions in two different seasons and his historic output cements him as the first overall selection in all drafts.

Barkley was second in rushing yards after Week 2 (227) and was averaging a whopping 7.8 yards per attempt before an ankle injury temporarily derailed his production.  But Barkley reemerged in Week 7 and eventually finished fourth in scoring, sixth in rushing yards (766), and fourth in runs of 20+ yards (6) during his final 10 games. Barkley’s 77.2 yards per game average would have placed him fifth overall if he had maintained that average over 16 games (1,235). He was also seventh among all backs in targets (55/5.5 per game), sixth in receptions (41/4.1 per game) and fourth in receiving yards (364/36.4 per game). Barkley is just 23 entering his third season and is entrenched as the second pick behind McCaffrey.

Elliott has already accumulated over 5,400 yards and 40 touchdowns on the ground during his tenure with Dallas. He has also been entrusted with 21 attempts per game since 2016, averaged 83 targets and 66 receptions since 2018, and has finished among the top 10 backs in each category. The Cowboys have built a three-headed nightmare for opposing defenses at wide receiver, and Dak Prescott will capitalize on the luxury of launching passes to Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. However, Elliott is rooted in a workhorse role and should be selected among the first three backs in your drafts.

Cook enters the final year of his rookie deal amid the increasing possibility that he will holdout for a new contract. He has missed 19 games during his first three seasons. However, he did perform in 14 contests during 2019, while finishing eighth in rushing attempts (250), and 10th in yardage (1,135). He was leading the NFL in rushing yards (991) and attempts (203) after Week 10 (991) before a shoulder injury limited him to 11.8 attempts and 36 yards per game from Weeks 11-17. Cook also finished fourth in touchdowns (13), sixth in receiving yards (519), and would function as the centerpiece of Minnesota’s offense if he is available in Week 1. His ranking would clearly be impacted if he is absent from the Vikings’ offseason activities.

Mixon has amassed 515 carries during his last two seasons, while also generating 2,305 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also accumulated a career-high 278 attempts in 2019, while assembling 1,137 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers were built despite an excruciating start, including the failure to reach 18 rushing yards in four of his first seven matchups. But Mixon capitalized on his league-high 177 attempts (22 per game) from Weeks 10-17 by tying for second in 100-yard performances, and rushes of 20+ yards.

Weeks 10-17 Attempts Yards Yards-Carry TDs 20+ 100+
Joe Mixon 177 817 4.6 5 6 4
Nick Chubb 144 691 4.8 2 6 4
Ezekiel Elliott 143 616 4.3 6 3 2
Derrick Henry 139 896 6.4 10 7 5
Todd Gurley 131 502 3.8 6 2 0
David Montgomery 130 483 3.7 1 1 1
Saquon Barkley 129 602 4.7 4 5 2
Christian McCaffrey 122 506 4.1 5 0 1
Le'Veon Bell 120 374 3.1 2 0 0
Aaron Jones 114 588 5.2 8 5 3
Devin Singletary 111 508 4.6 0 4 1
Kenyan Drake 108 533 4.9 7 3 2
Phillip Lindsay 106 427 4 2 1 1
Miles Sanders 103 482 4.7 2 3 1
Chris Carson 103 466 4.5 4 2 2

Mixon will be functioning as Cincinnati's unchallenged feature back as he begins the final year of his rookie contract. A potential holdout is the only hurdle that should prohibit him from generating the most prolific numbers of his career.

Kamara’s troublesome ankle affected his availability and his effectiveness during 2019. But he still finished eighth in point per game scoring, accumulated 797 rushing yards, and remained near the top of multiple receiving categories. His 6.9 target per game average was second only to McCaffrey, while he was also third in receptions (81/5.8 per game), and fourth in receiving yardage (533/38 per game). His six touchdowns represented a significant decline from the 15.5 that he averaged during his first two seasons. But he returns to a sizable role within a potent New Orleans attack and is capable of approaching his touchdown total from 2018 (18).

Chubb finished third in all-purpose yards last season (1,772) and was also second in rushing yards (1,494). He was fourth in rushing from Weeks 1-9 (803 yards) while averaging 19.3 attempts/100.4 yards per game. Those averages only declined slightly (18 attempts/86.3 yards per game) after Kareem Hunt reemerged from suspension in Week 10. However, Chubb’s usage and production as a receiver were impacted by Hunt’s return, as his averages in targets (4.0), receptions (3.1), and receiving yards (20.1) dropped to 2.1/1.4/14.6 yards per game. Chubb did accumulate 100+ yards in four of his league-high 7 games after Hunt resurfaced, and his rushing proficiency sustains his status as a top-10 back.

 

Tier 2

Josh Jacobs, Derrick HenryAustin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley II 

Jacobs was ninth in scoring, fourth in rushing yards (1,061) and second in rushes of 20+ yards entering Week 14. His protracted shoulder issue limited him to just one more game, yet he still finished eighth in rushing yardage for the season (1,150). His 88.5 yard per game average was exceeded only by Chubb and Derrick Henry, while Jacobs also finished fifth in yards after contact (683).

Weeks 1-13 Attempts  Yards  YPC   20+ 100+
Nick Chubb 238 1175 4.9 8 5
Christian McCaffrey 235 1167 5 6 6
Derrick Henry 232 1140 4.9 5 4
Josh Jacobs 218 1061 4.9 8 5
Dalvin Cook 223 1046 4.7 7 5
Ezekiel Elliott 227 990 4.4 2 5
Leonard Fournette 220 989 4.5 6 3
Chris Carson 231 981 4.2 7 5
Lamar Jackson 140 977 7 9 4
Marlon Mack 192 862 4.5 7 3
Carlos Hyde 184 853 4.6 8 2
Mark Ingram 166 837 5 4 4
Phillip Lindsay 164 766 4.7 6 1
Sony Michel 184 645 3.5 2 0
Aaron Jones 159 645 4.1 1 2
Joe Mixon 183 643 3.5 1 1

Any optimism that Jacobs would become increasingly involved as a receiver has been impacted by Jalen Richard’s two-year extension and the impending addition of Lynn Bowden as a multi-purpose weapon. But Jacobs retains sizable value as an undisputed lead back.

Since Week 14 of 2018, Henry has carried 431 times. He has also seized his opportunity to function as the centerpiece of Tennessee’s offense during those contests by accumulating 2,125 rushing yards, producing 23 touchdowns, and averaging 5.94 yards per attempt. During 2019 he also led the league in attempts (303), yardage (1,540), touchdowns (16), and yards after contact (968). A depth chart that only contains rookie Darrynton Evans provides the potential for increased usage as a receiver following last year’s modest numbers (24 targets/18 receptions/206 yards). But it is Henry’s extensive workload on the ground that keeps him embedded as a top-12 back.

Ekeler's stellar 2019 season vaulted him to RB4 in PPR scoring, as he led all backs in receiving touchdowns (8), yards per reception (10.8), and yards per target (9.2). He was also second in targets (108), receptions (92), receiving yards (993), and yards-after-catch (966). He is currently being drafted as a low-end RB1. However, it will be difficult for Ekeler to reach last year’s output following the departure of Philip Rivers.  He was targeted 5+ times in 12 different matchups while averaging 6.8 per game. His chances of replicating that usage is now diminished regardless of whether Tyrod Taylor or newcomer Justin Herbert is spearheading the Charger attack.

Jones' 2019 touch total (285) obliterated his previous season-high, as he finally achieved the long-deserved role of a lead back. He also tied with Henry for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (16), finished second in scoring, and was eighth among all backs in receiving yards (474). But Jones’ Best-Ball ADP has slowly dropped to the threshold of Round 2 following Green Bay’s selection of A.J. Dillon. This has added an additional layer of congestion to a backfield that already contained fourth-year back  Jamaal Williams. Jones can still be drafted as an RB2. But his value has been diminished by the injection of Dillon into the backfield.

After averaging 8.7 carries and 3.1 targets per game from Weeks 1-11, Sanders’ usage expanded to 15.3 attempts/5.3 targets per game from Weeks 12-17. That fueled a significant rise in his output as Sanders vaulted to seventh in rushing yards (444/74 per game) during Philadelphia's last 6 matchups. He also finished eighth among all backs in targets and seventh in both receptions (4.3 per game) and receiving yards (32.5 per game) during that span. Sanders appears destined to maintain the momentum of that late-season surge by commandeering a mammoth workload - even if a veteran back is infused into the Eagles' backfield equation. 

Fournette finally eluded injuries and disciplinary issues in 2019, which kept him affixed in Jacksonville's lineup for a career-high 15 games. He also averaged 22.7 touches per-game, while finishing seventh in rushing attempts (265/17.6 per game), and rushing yardage (1,152). He was also fourth among backs in targets (100), and fifth in both receptions (76), and receiving yards (522). However, Fournette’s future is now uncertain after the Jaguars' failed attempts to trade him were followed by a decline of his fifth-year option. His target total is also destined to plunge as former Redskin Chris Thompson will confiscate a sizable receiving role. These unfavorable developments have fueled a drop in his ADP (25) during the past four weeks.  

Gurley accumulated 4,547 yards and 36 touchdowns as a rusher, and 1,883 yards as a receiver from 2015-2018. Those exceptional numbers remain impressive. But they become increasingly irrelevant for anyone who is drafting him in 2020. Confidence in his ability to sustain an extensive workload has diminished considerably after Gurley manufactured a career-low 857 yards on the ground and just 207 yards as a pass-catcher in 2019. However, he has resurfaced in Atlanta with only Ito Smith, Brian Hill, and Qadree Ollison below him on the depth. This supplies the potential for respectable numbers that justify his current ADP (28).

 

Tier 3

Kenyan Drake Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Melvin Gordon III, Chris Carson, Le'Veon Bell, Jonathan Taylor

Drake averaged 126.6 touches and 707.6 total yards from 2016-2018. He was also relegated to RB41 from Weeks 1-8 last season while averaging an anemic 58 total yards per game with Miami. But he skyrocketed to RB4 from Weeks 9-17, after commandeering RB1 responsibilities with Arizona. Only five backs accumulated more rushing yards during that span (643), while only Henry generated more touchdowns (8). He also led the NFL in rushing in Weeks 15-16 (303 yards/ 6.6 per attempt). This provided the Cardinals with the incentive to jettison David Johnson, and utilize Drake as their primary back.

Interest in Edwards-Helaire has skyrocketed since Andy Reid and Brett Veach deployed a first-round pick on the former LSU Tiger. His ADP has soared from 83 to 21 since the NFL Draft, in anticipation of schematic placement that will produce significant yardage totals in Kansas City’s high-octane offense. Damien Williams could split touches with Edwards-Helaire initially. But the Chiefs did not expend their draft capital on Edwards-Helaire with the goal of affixing him to the sidelines. However, patience might be required for anyone who invests in this elusive rookie at his surging  ADP.

Gordon's passageway within the AFC West has presented him with lead back responsibilities in Denver. His presence should elevate the effectiveness of a rushing attack that ranked 20th last season while averaging 103.9 yards per game. Gordon’s role will be sizable, and he should reach the 62% snap count that he averaged from 2016-2018. He should eclipse the 17-touches per game that he averaged in 2019. as Phillip Lindsay’s 16.2 touch-per game average is destined to decline. This will propel Gordon's rushing output above last year’s career-low (612 yards).

The addition of Carlos Hyde might create hesitation in selecting Carson at his Round 4 ADP (38). However, Carson should function as the Seahawks' primary back providing that he can achieve sustained health. Carson finished fifth in attempts (278) and yardage (1,230), while eclipsing in 100 yards in six different matchups. He was also third in rushing from Week 6-15 (810 yards/90 per game) before his season suddenly ended in Week 16 (hip). The addition of Hyde supplies depth if Rashaad Penny’s, lengthy recovery (torn ACL) extends into the regular season.

Bell did not approach the 321 rushing attempts that he attained during his final year with Pittsburgh. But the 245 carries that he accrued last season were exceeded by just 10 other backs. His career-low 3.2 yards per carry average relegated him to just 24th overall in yardage (789). The Jets added four offensive linemen during the off-season transformation of a unit that finished 31st in Football Outsiders’ run blocking ratings. However, the perpetual shroud of uncertainty regarding Adam Gase's self-defeating usage of his personnel still remains.

Taylor flourished with a massive workload during his three seasons at Wisconsin (926 carries) by generating 6,174 rushing yards and 50 touchdowns. He also averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, while performing with an enticing mixture of speed, power, and reliability. He now joins an Indianapolis offense that ranked fifth in run play percentage during 2019 (46.4), as Marlon Mack confiscated 52% of those attempts. Mack could maintain an ongoing role this season, while Nyheim Hines lurks as a theoretical threat for targets. However, Taylor is destined to collect a sizable percentage of touches, which creates his path toward functioning as the Colts' RB1.   

 

Tier 4

Cam Akers, Mark Ingram, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, David Johnson, James Conner

Akers possesses a collection of attributes that equip him to thrive with feature back responsibilities. The timetable for his ascension atop LA’s depth chart remains unclear. But the Rams would not have used a second-round pick on Akers if they were planning to rely extensively on Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. Henderson only supplied flashes of his elusiveness as a rookie (43 touches/184 total yards), while the uninspiring Brown will be limited to a backup role.

Ingram entered his age-30 season as a strong candidate for touchdown regression after establishing a new career-high during 2019 (15). Now he must also contend with the foreboding presence of Dobbins. The rookie’s arrival will not eviscerate Ingram’s value immediately. But it will accelerate the timetable for Ingram to cede his role as Baltimore’s lead back. His ADP has dropped from 45 to 55 since late April, and selecting him at that point in your draft presents an inherent risk.

Montgomery tied for 13th in rushing attempts as a rookie (242/15.1 per game). However, he was also 19th in yardage (889/55.6 per game), averaged 3.7 per attempt, and finished 42nd in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). He did finish 13th in red zone carries (33/64.7%), and his only competitor for carries is Tarik Cohen  64 attempts). This should supply Montgomery with a favorable workload as a rusher, even if his usage as a receiver remains minimal.

Only five backs accumulated more rushing yards than Singletary from Weeks 9-15 (557), while he also averaged 16.6 carries/79.6 yards per game during that seven-game span. His ADP had risen to 26 after Buffalo declined to add another back during free agency. But rising optimism that he might operate as a feature back was quashed when the Bills selected  Zack Moss. Singletary should still receive a respectable workload. But he will not perform to the expectations of his current ADP (37).

Johnson has not been able to replicate his stellar 2016 season, in which he led all backs in scoring, targets (120), receptions (80), receiving yards (879), and produced his only 1,000-yard season as a rusher. But he could approach his 2018 numbers, when Johnson generated 1,386 total yards, and finished ninth in PPR scoring. Bill O’Brien will be motivated to justify the trade that he engineered for Johnson by relying heavily on the 28-year old back.

An assortment of injuries sidelined Connor for six contests during 2019, although he still led the Steelers in attempts (116) and rushing yards (464). But that represented a sizable decline from 2018 in carries and yardage (215/973). Second-year back Benny Snell and fourth-round pick Anthony McFarland loom as candidates to siphon touches. Connor should still commandeer lead back duties. But only if he can elude any further health issues.

 

Tier 5

Kareem Hunt, D'Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Sony Michel, Jordan Howard

Hunt remains a proven point producer whenever he remains on the field.  He led the league in rushing during 2017 (1,327 yards), and was third in 2018 (824/74.9 per game) before a highly-publicized incident abruptly concluded his season. He also accrued 464 total yards (58 per game) while operating as a complement to Chubb in 2019. His value would evaporate quickly if there are additional off-the-field issues. But he would elevate into RB1 terrain if Chubb is sidelined for any reason.

Swift’s ADP had peaked at 33 on April 20. But it has now regressed to 42 due to production-inhibiting factors that could emerge in Detroit. However,  Swift’s enormous talent should not be dismissed. He assembled 3,551 total yards during three seasons at Georgia while blending burst and durability as a runner with his dependability as a receiver. He is easily a more gifted performer than Kerryon Johnson and should receive a workload that exceeds current expectations.

Dobbins was highly proficient in three years at Ohio State while accruing 4,459 yards and 38 touchdowns as a rusher. He has landed in a backfield that contains an uncomfortable level of congestion. But Dobbins will still benefit from operating within a Baltimore offense that led the NFL in run play percentage (56.02). The the Ravens’ run-first philosophy will enable Dobbins to split touches with Ingram, while 2019 backups Gus Edwards (8.8 touches per game) and Justice Hill (4.1 per game) could also pilfer opportunities.

Michel led the Patriots in rushing attempts (247/15.4 per game) and rushing yards (912/57 per game) for a second consecutive season, but his yard per carry average dropped to 3.7. New England’s impending offensive transformation could be unsightly, But Michel's workload could expand if deficiencies within Patriots' passing attack force the team to rely heavily on their ground game.

Only one back accrued more rushing yards than Howard during his 2016 rookie season (1,313). But a continual decline in his production during his last three seasons culminated with a career-low in 2019 (525). However, Howard’s ADP has risen from 150 to 102 since April 1, in anticipation of his opportunity for career resurrection in Miami. He should accrue favorable numbers even as he shares touches with Matt Breida.

 

Tier 6

Raheem Mostert, Damien Williams, Phillip Lindsay, Ke’Shawn Vaughn

Mostert’s late-season statistical surge might not preclude him from the constraints of a time share with Tevin Coleman, while Williams is destined for a diminished role as the season progresses. Gordon’s arrival will dramatically reduce Lindsay’s workload, while Vaughn could eventually surpass Ronald Jones on Tampa Bay’s depth chart.

 

Tier 7-8

Latavius Murray, Marlon Mack, James White, Zack Moss, Tarik Cohen, Kerryon Johnson, Darrell Henderson, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Ronald Jones II, Justin Jackson, Derrius Guice, Alexander Mattison, Joshua Kelley, Tony Pollard

Tiers 7 and 8 contain backs that are currently located between RB36 and RB50 in our rankings. Their value could change considerably due to factors that emerge during the season.

More Best-Ball League Strategy


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football & NFL Rookies 2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note NFL Analysis NFL Draft Radio RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles Video

Running Backs to Target in Best Ball Drafts

RotoBaller fantasy football analyst Michael Florio discusses the RBs that you should be targeting in best ball drafts!

Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!

Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays from 9-11 PM and Sundays from 7-9 PM ET. You can also find new weekly shows on the site under RotoBaller Radio podcasts.

 

RBs to Target in Best Ball Drafts

In this episode of RotoBaller Radio, we go through RBs that are strong values in best ball drafts.

Players discussed include:

"

Thanks for listening to today's episode! Be sure to tune in throughout the week, and to also follow RotoBaller on Twitter, YouTube and iTunes for the latest fantasy news and analysis.

Win Big with RotoBaller in 2020!

More RotoBaller Radio Videos and Podcasts




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football & NFL Rookies 2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note NFL Analysis NFL Draft Radio RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles Video

Quarterbacks to Target in Best Ball Drafts

RotoBaller fantasy football analyst Michael Florio discusses the QBs that you should be targeting in best ball drafts!

Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!

Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET and Saturday and Sunday nights from 7-9 PM ET. You can also find new weekly shows on the site under RotoBaller Radio podcasts.

 

QBs to Target in Best Ball Drafts

In this episode of RotoBaller Radio, we go through QBs that are strong values in best ball drafts.

Players discussed include:

"

 

Thanks for listening to today's episode! Be sure to tune in throughout the week, and to also follow RotoBaller on Twitter, YouTube and iTunes for the latest fantasy news and analysis.

Win Big with RotoBaller in 2020!

More RotoBaller Radio Videos and Podcasts




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy & Tips Editor Note NFL Analysis Radio RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles Video

How to Build a Best-Ball Slim Team on FFPC - Fantasy Bomb Pod

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano conduct a Best Ball Slim draft on FFPC on air and discuss their thought processes through each round. Things take an odd turn when some teams load up on QB and TE, forcing them each to shift strategies. You won't believe some of the final rosters in this league...

Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!

Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET and Sunday nights from 9-11 PM ET. You can also find new weekly shows on the site under RotoBaller Radio podcasts.

 

It's Supposed to Be "Best" Ball

Pierre and Chris run through a live FFPC Best Ball Slim Draft to explain their roster construction and draft values.

Players discussed include:

Saquon Barkley
Joe Mixon
Chris Godwin
Josh Jacobs
Kareem Hunt
Sony Michel
Darren Waller
CeeDee Lamb
Tevin Coleman
Carson Wentz
Joe Burrow

Thanks for listening to today's episode! Be sure to tune in throughout the week, and to also follow RotoBaller on Twitter, YouTube and iTunes for the latest fantasy news and analysis.

Win Big with RotoBaller in 2020!

More RotoBaller Radio Videos and Podcasts




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis Editor Note Featured Football Featured Homepage NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Updated Best Ball Rankings - Top 385 Post NFL Draft

Welcome back RotoBallers! Below you will find our staff's updated 2020 fantasy football rankings (top 385) for best ball formats. For those of you who are not familiar with fantasy football best ball leagues, they are draft-only leagues. Once the drafts are complete, there are no moves for the rest of the season -- no setting lineups, no trades, no waivers, no add/drops. Each week, the best combination of players on your roster is automatically calculated and used to determine the highest possible scoring outcome. Best ball drafts always start earlier than regular drafts, and they are already in high gear!

These rankings are being released after the conclusion of the 2020 NFL Draft - meaning the ranks are now factoring in the trades and rookie landing spots, but things will of course change as we get closer to the NFL season. Adjustments will be made to all of our staff rankings all offseason long, so check back regularly for any player movements. You can also see our staff's ongoing rankings analysis articles discussing draft values, sleepers, players to target/avoid, the NFL rookies, and analyzing the NFL Draft results.

And of course, be sure to also check out our 2020 fantasy football rankings dashboard and bookmark it! That RotoBaller rankings homepage is loaded up with lots of other great staff rankings - all updated after the NFL Draft - including our early PPR Rankings, Half-PPR rankingsStandard league rankingsDynasty League rankings and 2020 NFL Rookie rankings. Bookmark those pages, and prepare for all of your drafts.

 

Fantasy Football Rankings - Best Ball Formats

For those who are not familiar, three of our lead fantasy football analysts - Pierre Camus, Phil Clark and Mike Riggall - have come together to offer their individual rankings, which we aggregated into a consensus. Feel free to click those links and give these fine gentlemen a follow on Twitter, or let them know how much you love or hate their rankings. 

Tier Rank Player Name Pos Pierre Phil Mike
1 1 Christian McCaffrey RB 1 1 1
1 2 Saquon Barkley RB 2 2 2
1 3 Ezekiel Elliott RB 4 3 3
1 4 Dalvin Cook RB 3 5 4
1 5 Michael Thomas WR 5 4 5
1 6 Joe Mixon RB 10 6 6
1 7 Alvin Kamara RB 6 8 9
1 8 Nick Chubb RB 9 7 7
1 9 Tyreek Hill WR 8 9 8
2 10 Davante Adams WR 7 11 11
2 11 Chris Godwin WR 13 10 10
2 12 Julio Jones WR 11 12 14
2 13 Josh Jacobs RB 12 16 12
2 14 DeAndre Hopkins WR 14 13 15
2 15 Derrick Henry RB 15 15 13
2 16 Austin Ekeler RB 16 14 20
2 17 Aaron Jones RB 18 20 17
2 18 Kenny Golladay WR 17 22 21
2 19 Mike Evans WR 20 19 22
3 20 Travis Kelce TE 23 17 23
3 21 Amari Cooper WR 19 29 16
3 22 Miles Sanders RB 27 23 18
3 23 D.J. Moore WR 21 21 28
3 24 George Kittle TE 25 24 25
3 25 Leonard Fournette RB 28 18 31
3 26 Todd Gurley RB 24 33 27
3 27 Odell Beckham Jr. WR 26 31 29
3 28 Adam Thielen WR 34 38 19
4 29 Cooper Kupp WR 31 27 33
4 30 Allen Robinson WR 30 28 35
4 31 Kenyan Drake RB 41 30 24
4 32 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB 33 32 32
4 33 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 22 40 37
4 34 Melvin Gordon RB 38 36 26
4 35 A.J. Brown WR 32 37 38
4 36 Chris Carson RB 29 41 41
4 37 Patrick Mahomes QB 44 34 42
4 38 Courtland Sutton WR 39 48 34
4 39 Le'Veon Bell RB 47 46 30
4 40 D.K. Metcalf WR 36 43 47
4 41 Jonathan Taylor RB 66 25 36
4 42 Lamar Jackson QB 43 35 51
4 43 Calvin Ridley WR 49 26 56
4 44 D.J. Chark WR 42 44 53
4 45 Keenan Allen WR 35 39 67
4 46 Robert Woods WR 54 50 38
4 47 Zach Ertz TE 52 45 54
4 48 Terry McLaurin WR 53 42 58
4 49 Mark Andrews TE 37 53 66
5 50 Deebo Samuel WR 60 52 50
5 51 Cam Akers RB 45 74 43
5 52 DeVante Parker WR 50 72 46
5 53 A.J. Green WR 61 66 44
5 54 Stefon Diggs WR 63 51 57
5 55 T.Y. Hilton WR 40 57 78
5 56 Mark Ingram II RB 51 80 45
5 57 David Montgomery RB 48 58 70
6 58 Devin Singletary RB 46 67 63
6 59 Tyler Lockett WR 62 47 68
6 60 Kyler Murray QB 56 65 60
6 61 David Johnson RB 59 73 55
6 62 Jarvis Landry WR 55 69 71
6 63 James Conner RB 74 60 61
6 64 Michael Gallup WR 69 59 69
6 65 Tyler Boyd WR 80 71 48
6 66 Russell Wilson QB 73 56 79
6 67 Evan Engram TE 64 75 74
6 68 Darren Waller TE 57 76 81
6 69 Kareem Hunt RB 76 54 85
6 70 D'Andre Swift RB 81 64 72
6 71 Julian Edelman WR 77 49 94
6 72 Mike Williams WR 78 63 82
6 73 Dak Prescott QB 58 68 102
7 74 Hunter Henry TE 71 84 75
7 75 J.K. Dobbins RB 136 55 40
7 76 Sony Michel RB 67 79 89
7 77 Austin Hooper TE 68 95 73
7 78 Josh Allen QB 70 81 90
7 79 Jordan Howard RB 114 83 52
7 80 Deshaun Watson QB 86 70 96
7 81 Diontae Johnson WR 116 78 64
7 82 Will Fuller WR 79 77 109
7 83 Darius Slayton WR 92 91 88
7 84 Marquise Brown WR 85 94 93
7 85 Tyler Higbee TE 101 110 62
7 86 Raheem Mostert RB 90 82 101
8 87 Carson Wentz QB 84 108 84
8 88 Emmanuel Sanders WR 94 86 97
8 89 Damien Williams RB 93 93 #N/A
8 90 Jerry Jeudy WR 132 88 59
8 91 Phillip Lindsay RB 97 100 86
8 92 Ke'Shawn Vaughn RB 130 97 65
8 93 Sterling Shepard WR 104 87 104
8 94 Matt Ryan QB 65 105 125
8 95 Christian Kirk WR 72 120 104
8 96 Marvin Jones WR 105 85 107
8 97 Breshad Perriman WR 96 123 83
8 98 Mike Gesicki TE 109 118 76
8 99 Robby Anderson WR 95 115 98
9 100 John Brown WR 83 139 87
9 101 Jared Cook TE 102 117 91
9 102 Brandin Cooks WR 99 113 103
9 103 Anthony Miller WR 107 99 115
9 104 Noah Fant TE 91 92 140
9 105 Latavius Murray RB 111 98 118
9 106 Aaron Rodgers QB 88 131 111
9 107 CeeDee Lamb WR 123 89 120
9 108 Tom Brady QB 112 107 114
9 109 T.J. Hockenson TE 143 114 77
9 110 Marlon Mack RB 82 126 129
9 111 Baker Mayfield QB 87 141 112
10 112 Daniel Jones QB 100 134 113
10 113 Alshon Jeffery WR 103 124 122
10 114 Dallas Goedert TE 125 109 116
10 115 Golden Tate WR 133 112 106
10 116 James White RB 145 101 108
10 117 Drew Brees QB 89 148 127
10 118 Zack Moss RB 127 104 133
10 119 Tarik Cohen RB 98 144 128
10 120 Curtis Samuel WR 119 133 119
10 121 Kerryon Johnson RB 110 135 130
10 122 Darrell Henderson RB 117 122 136
10 123 Justin Jefferson WR 165 102 110
10 124 N'Keal Harry WR 128 103 148
10 125 Ben Roethlisberger QB 106 121 153
10 126 Joe Burrow QB 141 140 99
10 127 Rob Gronkowski TE 122 159 100
10 128 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 129 125 131
10 129 Tevin Coleman RB 121 185 80
10 130 Jamison Crowder WR 137 145 105
10 131 Mecole Hardman WR 118 130 142
10 132 Hayden Hurst TE 157 142 92
10 133 Matt Breida RB 124 106 167
10 134 Eric Ebron TE 149 129 124
11 135 Ronald Jones II RB 108 152 143
11 136 Preston Williams WR 171 119 123
11 137 Justin Jackson RB 164 116 #N/A
11 138 Derrius Guice RB 75 143 205
11 139 Ian Thomas TE 144 150 138
11 140 Jared Goff QB 113 156 168
11 141 Alexander Mattison RB 154 137 152
11 142 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 212 138 95
11 143 Sammy Watkins WR 142 151 157
11 144 James Washington WR 139 155 156
11 145 Joshua Kelley RB 134 172 #N/A
11 146 Matthew Stafford QB 120 164 176
11 147 Tony Pollard RB 160 166 134
12 148 Ryan Tannehill QB 126 187 154
12 149 DeSean Jackson WR 153 #VALUE! 161
12 150 San Francisco 49ers DST 150 163 159
12 151 Larry Fitzgerald WR 211 111 151
12 152 Henry Ruggs III WR 224 96 #N/A
12 153 Philip Rivers QB 135 179 173
12 154 Chase Edmonds RB 162 161 164
12 155 Kirk Cousins QB 156 170 169
12 156 Baltimore Ravens DST 155 176 165
12 157 Darrynton Evans RB 159 190 149
13 158 Chris Herndon IV TE 138 232 132
13 159 Adrian Peterson RB 225 154 126
13 160 Greg Olsen TE 166 191 158
13 161 Blake Jarwin TE 201 178 139
13 162 Tee Higgins WR 234 181 103
13 163 Dede Westbrook WR 148 225 146
13 164 Lynn Bowden Jr. RB #N/A 173 #N/A
13 165 Nyheim Hines RB 115 267 141
13 166 Steven Sims WR 167 212 144
13 167 Drew Lock QB 158 136 231
13 168 Jamaal Williams RB 177 217 135
13 169 Pittsburgh Steelers DST 163 198 170
13 170 Jonnu Smith TE 131 255 147
13 171 Randall Cobb WR 173 188 174
13 172 Jack Doyle TE 140 246 150
13 173 Tyrell Williams WR 151 175 216
13 174 Chicago Bears DST 170 195 177
13 175 Derek Carr QB 169 186 188
13 176 Duke Johnson RB 146 132 266
13 177 A.J. Dillon RB 218 146 #N/A
14 178 Los Angeles Chargers DST 179 #N/A 186
14 179 Sam Darnold QB 161 184 203
14 180 Hunter Renfrow WR 193 157 200
14 181 Buffalo Bills DST 152 239 162
14 182 Cole Beasley WR 184 183 190
14 183 Irv Smith Jr. TE 172 201 195
14 184 Boston Scott RB 175 165 229
14 185 Teddy Bridgewater QB 183 199 189
14 186 O.J. Howard TE 178 222 172
14 187 Los Angeles Rams DST 168 236 175
14 188 Jalen Reagor WR 236 90 253
14 189 Ryquell Armstead RB 250 168 163
14 190 Justice Hill RB 190 223 171
14 191 Corey Davis WR 191 197 199
14 192 Kenny Stills WR 182 226 180
14 193 Kansas City Chiefs DST 189 #N/A 204
14 194 Bryan Edwards WR 235 238 117
14 195 Royce Freeman RB 196 214 182
14 196 Gardner Minshew II QB 180 196 219
14 197 Allen Lazard WR 185 #N/A 213
14 198 Brandon Aiyuk WR 238 160 #N/A
14 199 New England Patriots DST 186 215 201
14 200 Dawson Knox TE 195 229 179
14 201 Malcolm Brown RB 181 149 275
15 202 Parris Campbell WR 147 277 183
15 203 Josh Reynolds WR 176 237 197
15 204 Antonio Gibson RB 192 216 #N/A
15 205 Jace Sternberger TE 249 #N/A 160
15 206 John Ross WR 230 207 178
15 207 Minnesota Vikings DST 174 262 181
15 208 Rashaad Penny RB 200 211 207
15 209 Gerald Everett TE 220 194 210
15 210 Giovani Bernard RB 207 282 137
15 211 Albert Wilson WR 187 231 #N/A
15 212 Philadelphia Eagles DST 203 202 223
15 213 Denver Broncos DST 204 #N/A 220
15 214 Andy Isabella WR 198 234 206
15 215 Ito Smith RB 214 #N/A 212
15 216 Dwayne Haskins QB 188 228 224
15 217 Trey Burton TE 217 210 #N/A
15 218 Gus Edwards RB 197 230 #N/A
15 219 Tyrod Taylor QB 216 192 234
15 220 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR 231 219 198
16 221 Benny Snell Jr. RB 288 #N/A 145
16 222 Carlos Hyde RB 267 200 184
16 223 Danny Amendola WR 232 180 241
16 224 Auden Tate WR 244 #N/A 193
16 225 Phillip Dorsett WR 274 #N/A 166
16 226 New York Jets DST 213 #N/A 227
16 227 New Orleans Saints DST 194 260 209
16 228 Jarrett Stidham QB 223 #N/A #N/A
16 229 Chris Conley WR 219 #N/A 228
16 230 Darwin Thompson RB 233 #N/A 214
16 231 Russell Gage WR 294 #N/A 155
16 232 Cleveland Browns DST 210 242 225
16 233 Tyler Eifert TE 246 206 #N/A
16 234 Seattle Seahawks DST 206 257 221
16 235 Kyle Rudolph TE 221 208 256
16 236 Mitch Trubisky QB 202 275 208
16 237 Denzel Mims WR 310 147 #N/A
16 238 Cameron Brate TE 268 #N/A 191
16 239 Tennessee Titans DST 208 252 230
16 240 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 226 #N/A 235
16 241 Jalen Richard RB 273 233 187
16 242 Devin Funchess WR 222 221 251
16 243 Brian Hill RB 272 #N/A 192
16 244 Tre'Quan Smith WR 269 #N/A 196
16 245 Dallas Cowboys DST 227 #N/A 240
16 246 Will Dissly TE 251 256 194
16 247 Cam Newton QB 291 209 202
17 248 Miami Dolphins DST 257 #N/A 211
17 249 Devonta Freeman RB 259 203 242
17 250 Peyton Barber RB 215 220 269
17 251 Damien Harris RB 199 283 222
17 252 Laviska Shenault Jr. WR 247 189 270
17 253 Mohamed Sanu WR 239 224 244
17 254 Jaylen Samuels RB 209 289 212
17 255 Green Bay Packers DST 237 #N/A 238
17 256 Indianapolis Colts DST 229 #N/A 246
17 257 Tua Tagovailoa QB 302 177 #N/A
17 258 Qadree Ollison RB 243 #N/A 237
17 259 Van Jefferson WR #N/A 240 #N/A
17 260 David Njoku TE 289 254 185
17 261 Kelvin Harmon WR 242 #N/A 245
18 262 Keke Coutee WR 245 241 247
18 263 Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST 240 #N/A 249
18 264 DeeJay Dallas RB 241 250 #N/A
18 265 Jakobi Meyers WR 252 #N/A 248
18 266 DeAndre Washington RB 262 263 226
18 267 Jordan Love QB #N/A 251 #N/A
18 268 Chris Thompson RB 205 292 257
18 269 Jimmy Graham TE 228 269 260
18 270 Lamical Perine RB 260 247 #N/A
18 271 Cole Kmet TE 327 182 #N/A
18 272 Jalen Hurd WR 248 #N/A 263
18 273 Kendrick Bourne WR 254 #N/A 258
18 274 KJ Hamler WR 256 #N/A #N/A
18 275 Keelan Cole WR 266 218 289
18 276 Nick Foles QB 278 259 236
18 277 Allen Hurns WR 258 #N/A #N/A
18 278 Rex Burkhead RB 271 272 232
18 279 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 253 268 254
18 280 Miles Boykin WR 270 243 264
18 281 Dare Ogunbowale RB 276 #N/A 243
18 282 Eno Benjamin RB 308 213 #N/A
18 283 Marcus Mariota QB 295 227 #N/A
18 284 Houston Texans DST 255 #N/A 267
18 285 Nelson Agholor WR 265 261 262
18 286 Washington Redskins DST 263 265 265
18 287 Geronimo Allison WR 299 205 294
18 288 Lamar Miller RB 340 245 215
18 289 Dion Lewis RB 283 #N/A 252
18 290 Taylor Gabriel WR #N/A 253 284
18 291 Devin Duvernay WR #N/A 271 #N/A
18 292 Tyler Johnson WR 301 244 #N/A
18 293 Bo Scarbrough RB 296 #N/A 250
18 294 Jalen Hurts QB #N/A 273 #N/A
18 295 Demarcus Robinson WR 277 274 272
18 296 Marquise Goodwin WR 261 #N/A 288
18 297 Brycen Hopkins TE 311 #N/A 239
18 298 Darrel Williams RB 290 #N/A 261
18 299 Justin Herbert QB 303 248 #N/A
18 300 Chase Claypool WR 347 204 #N/A
19 301 David Moore WR 264 280 285
19 302 Zach Pascal WR 281 #N/A 273
19 303 Jameis Winston QB 344 258 233
19 304 Adam Humphries WR 284 279 274
19 305 Anthony McFarland Jr. RB 279 #N/A #N/A
19 306 Corey Clement RB 280 #N/A #N/A
19 307 Demaryius Thomas WR #N/A #N/A 281
19 308 Jacksonville Jaguars DST #N/A 270 293
19 309 Vance McDonald TE 297 288 262
19 310 Hakeem Butler WR 287 #N/A 278
19 311 Wayne Gallman RB 319 249 280
19 312 Jordan Wilkins RB 298 #N/A 268
19 313 Bilal Powell RB #N/A 278 291
19 314 Carolina Panthers DST 285 #N/A #N/A
19 315 Trey Quinn WR #N/A 286 #N/A
19 316 Ted Ginn WR 275 285 299
19 317 Willie Snead WR 292 #N/A 282
19 318 Mike Boone RB 305 #N/A 271
19 319 LeSean McCoy RB 320 266 283
19 320 Antonio Gandy-Golden WR 346 235 #N/A
19 321 Antonio Brown WR 282 #N/A 301
19 322 Atlanta Falcons DST 286 297 292
19 323 Foster Moreau TE 309 #N/A 276
19 324 OlaBisi Johnson WR 293 #N/A #N/A
19 325 Ty Montgomery RB #N/A #N/A 296
19 326 Mike Weber RB #N/A 296 #N/A
19 327 Kyle Allen QB 300 294 #N/A
19 328 T.J. Yeldon RB 316 279
19 329 Travis Homer RB 333 284 286
19 330 Bryce Love RB 313 290 #N/A
19 331 Greg Ward WR 304 #N/A #N/A
19 332 Andy Dalton QB 328 287 298
19 333 DaeSean Hamilton WR 351 259
19 334 KeeSean Johnson WR 306 #N/A #N/A
19 335 Zay Jones WR 307 #N/A #N/A
19 336 Dante Pettis WR 337 #N/A 277
19 337 Frank Gore RB 315 #N/A 300
20 338 Albert Okwuegbunam TE 323 295 #N/A
20 339 Jeff Wilson RB 336 #N/A 287
20 340 Darren Fells TE 312 #N/A #N/A
20 341 Taysom Hill QB 314 #N/A #N/A
20 342 Robert Foster WR 342 291 #N/A
20 343 Jakeem Grant WR 317 #N/A #N/A
20 344 Tajae Sharpe WR 318 #N/A #N/A
20 345 Donovan Peoples-Jones WR 345 293 #N/A
20 346 Jordan Ta'amu QB 321 #N/A #N/A
20 347 Jerick McKinnon RB 354 #N/A 290
20 348 Josh Oliver TE 322 #N/A #N/A
20 349 Ryan Griffin TE 324 #N/A #N/A
20 350 Jason Witten TE 325 #N/A #N/A
20 351 Tim Patrick WR 326 #N/A #N/A
20 352 Myles Gaskin RB 357 #N/A 295
20 353 Patrick Laird RB 358 #N/A 297
20 354 Cordarrelle Patterson WR 329 #N/A #N/A
20 355 Justin Watson WR 330 #N/A #N/A
20 356 Damiere Byrd WR 331 #N/A #N/A
20 357 Mo Alie-Cox TE 332 #N/A #N/A
20 358 Deon Cain WR 334 #N/A #N/A
20 359 Josh Gordon WR 335 #N/A #N/A
20 360 Byron Pringle WR 338 #N/A #N/A
20 361 Kaden Smith TE 339 #N/A #N/A
20 362 Jordan Akins TE 341 #N/A #N/A
20 363 Drew Sample TE 343 #N/A #N/A
20 364 Taywan Taylor WR 348 #N/A #N/A
20 365 C.J. Uzomah TE 349 #N/A #N/A
20 366 Thaddeus Moss TE 350 #N/A #N/A
20 367 Antonio Gandy-Golden WR 351 #N/A #N/A
20 368 Jacob Hollister TE 352 #N/A #N/A
20 369 Jakeem Grant WR 352 #N/A #N/A
20 370 Richie James WR 353 #N/A #N/A
20 371 Deon Cain WR 353 #N/A #N/A
20 372 Cole Kmet TE 354 #N/A #N/A
20 373 Harrison Bryant TE 355 #N/A #N/A
20 374 Ricky Seals-Jones TE 355 #N/A #N/A
20 375 Jacoby Brissett QB 356 #N/A #N/A
20 376 KJ Hamler WR 356 #N/A #N/A
20 377 Hunter Bryant TE 357 #N/A #N/A
20 378 Nick Boyle TE 359 #N/A #N/A
20 379 J.J. Taylor RB 359 #N/A #N/A
20 380 Marshawn Lynch RB 360 #N/A #N/A
20 381 Taywan Taylor WR 360 #N/A #N/A
20 382 Adam Trautman TE 361 #N/A #N/A
20 383 Case Keenum QB 362 #N/A #N/A
20 384 DeeJay Dallas RB 363 #N/A #N/A
20 385 Lamical Perine RB 364 #N/A #N/A
20 386 Harrison Bryant TE 365 #N/A #N/A

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy & Tips Editor Note Featured Football NFL Analysis

FFPC Best-Ball Slim: Draft Strategy Guide

No kickers, no defenses, no waivers to worry about, no points left on your bench each week. Is this the perfect fantasy football league?

For those not already aware, let me introduce you to FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) Best-Ball Slim Leagues. If you play best-ball, you know how it works. You draft your team and then sit back and watch the points pile up all season long. For those who love to put together a fantasy football team but don't have the time or interest to keep up with in-season management, this is the ideal format. FFPC has taken it a step further by slimming down the rosters and eliminating the frustrating randomness that can occur when kickers and team defenses get involved.

Since the format is a little different, this is a good chance to formulate a draft strategy specific to Best-Ball Slim by looking at possible roster constructions and identifying ideal early and late-round targets. Once you've read through this guide and feel prepared, sign up for a best-ball league on FFPC and get started!

 

Details, Details

It goes without saying (but here goes anyway) that you should always know every detail of a league's rules and scoring settings before the draft. You can get all the details right here from the FFPC site itself, but here's a quick synopsis.

The best part is that you can choose a live draft with a 60-second timer or slow drafts with a two-hour or six-hour timer. Drafting multiple teams at the same time is a great way to do a direct comparison of ADP values and to intentionally differentiate rosters. After all, you can't just have one best-ball team...

By the way, if you do choose a slow draft, don't be that guy that constantly nags people to make their picks. If you're in that big of a hurry, just do a live draft!

 

Roster Construction

There is an ever-growing branch of knowledge regarding the best way to build a team in best-ball leagues. With no waivers, adds, drops, or trades throughout the season, what you draft is what you get. That means that you should develop a plan during the course of your draft, assuming you don't have one preconceived ahead of time. Typically, high-stakes players won't make egregious mistakes or reach for a player early on, so you should expect tough competition.

Chris Allen of 4for4 Fantasy Football has delved into the best roster constructions for FFPC, although this data relates to standard best-ball leagues with 28-man rosters. Here is what he found based on last season.

The quick takeaway from this chart is that nearly every team at the higher end of winning rates took three QB, DEF, and PK, while RB and WR were fairly balanced. The expanded rosters not only allow for a fourth tight end, the TE-premium scoring (1.5 PPR) encourages extra depth at the position.

In an 18-round draft with no kicker or defense, we could simply subtract six roster spots from kicker and defense, then another one from each other position and we are left with 18. In that scenario, here are the best possible roster constructions for Standard Best-Ball Slim Leagues.

QB RB WR TE
2 6 7 3
2 5 8 3
2 7 7 2
2 6 8 2
2 7 7 3
2 7 6 3
2 6 6 4
2 6 8 3
2 5 9 2

On the Fantasy Bomb podcast a year ago, @TodfromPA (formerly MFLTod) said to me "If you draft a third quarterback in MFL10, you're just a contributor." In this case, contributing isn't a good thing. Essentially, he meant you are contributing money to the prize pot for someone else to collect. FFPC has deeper rosters, but when we pare down to 18 players, none of these combinations contain a third signal-caller .

Drafting a QB early is not required; just make sure your second QB is a high-floor, risk-averse player without an extended injury history. I wouldn't advise taking Cam Newton in the hope that he lands a starting job somewhere. Someone like Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, or Gardner Minshew II don't figure to be league-winning picks, but that's not what you need out of a backup QB. In fact, unless you hit on a Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes late, the position isn't likely to win you a league at all.

As far as RB/WR splits, you can choose to keep these two positions balances or lean more on quantity at receiver if you go with quality at running back early. As we'll see further down, drafters are valuing running backs more than ever, so it's best not to wait.

Although we see a couple of two-TE combinations in the top-four most winning rosters in the chart, I would advise grabbing a third unless you landed Travis Kelce or George Kittle as your starter.

Superflex Best-Ball Slim

Among the variety of options available, you can choose to join a Superflex Best-Ball Slim league. All the same rules apply, except that you can slot a quarterback at one of your flex spots. This makes for a very different draft board, as the top QBs will be taken in the first round and every team will want to come away with at least three. Despite the increased value of quarterbacks, it still isn't advisable to take an "extra" player at the position considering how shallow rosters are, as it may handcuff your options at RB/WR/TE.

Here are some possible roster constructions for Superflex leagues.

QB RB WR TE
3 6 6 3
3 5 7 3
3 6 7 2
3 5 8 2
3 5 8 2
3 7 5 3
4 5 7 2
4 5 6 3
2 6 7 3

 

Draft Example

Hours after the final pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, I wrapped up a slim best-ball draft of my own in order to get a feel for how rookies would be valued and to see how other high-stakes players would build their rosters.

Here is the link to the draft board, but you can view it full-size by clicking on the image below as well.

 

Positional Distribution

The first thing worth noticing is that 10 of the 12 picks in the first round were running backs. This promises to be a trend across all fantasy football drafts in 2020, as the supply of high-end RB1 types does not meet the demand. The two owners who passed on RB in round one to take Michael Thomas and Travis Kelce followed up with a running back in round two.

The big three at tight end were all gone by the end of round two and the top five were taken by the end of round three. It wasn't until round six that a run on the remaining tight ends took place, other than Gronk being taken in the middle of round five(!?!).

Every team wound up with three QBs except the owner who took Patrick Mahomes early and the one that was on auto-draft because he failed to show and wound up with Jameis Winston as his lone QB. Thank you for your contribution, kind sir.

Although I did just advocate taking two quarterbacks and you can see that I pulled the trigger on a third toward the end of the draft, I did so because I waited too long on a backup and began having doubts about Minshew lasting all season as the starter. Not that Tyrod Taylor will be starting very long either... Lesson learned, go with a second quarterback by round 11 or 12 and then focus on WR depth the rest of the way.

 

Early Rookie Values

Seeing as how the NFL Draft was fresh in everyone's minds and we assume that every single rookie selected will be a total stud right away, the ADP may be slightly skewed in comparison to drafts done later on in the summer. The top three rookie running backs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, and D'Andre Swift were all third-round picks even though none is promised to be a featured back in 2020. I chose the discount with Cam Akers in round five, who I have as my top rookie RB as of right now. While that point might be debatable, the discrepancy in draft spot makes him the better value and allowed me to take Kenny Golladay and JuJu Smith-Schuster at WR.

The first rookie wideouts came off the board in round nine, with a total of 11 recent draftees being selected. It's a much better idea to take a shot on a player like Denzel Mims or Jalen Reagor in the late stages of a best-ball draft than a redraft league because there is no need to guess correctly as to when they will have their explosive moments amidst the inconsistency.

 

Draft Recap

Ultimately, I was happy to land Dalvin Cook with the seventh pick and then a top TE in George Kittle on the way back. I stacked high-volume targets at receiver over the next couple of rounds before filling out my backfield. Pretty much every RB on my roster has a question mark or two by his name entering the season, but that's simply the nature of the position. I much prefer to take a player with top-10 potential like JuJu than James Conner or David Johnson. The beauty of best-ball is that I can still reap the rewards of Sony Michel's handful of big games where he scores multiple times without relying on it.

The Alexander Mattison pick is an obvious handcuff, which isn't ideal for a league with only 18 roster spots. Given Dalvin Cook's injury history and the lack of better options in that range, it made more sense than taking a committee back like Tevin Coleman or Boston Scott with limited upside. The depth at WR toward the end of this and other drafts I've done so far is much better than you'd expect, which reinforces the fact that stocking up at RB early is almost a necessity unless you are relying on heavy volume by going with a 2QB-7RB-6WR-3TE build.

 

Late-Round Values

There won't be much in the way of running backs available past round 10. Some people believe Ke'Shawn Vaughn could claim the starting job in Tampa Bay, although I'm not one of them. His ADP is likely to rise, if anything, which could make Ronald Jones a better value at some point.

Austin Ekeler can't take all the carries in the Chargers backfield, so one of Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelley could become a steal. The problem is figuring out which one.

Chase Edmonds and Malcolm Brown are easily forgotten but could still have a role on their respective teams.

Slot receivers Golden Tate, Anthony Miller, and Parris Campbell are not overly exciting but each could accumulate enough targets to register big weeks. Miller produced four games with six or more catches in the second half of 2019 and Tate had five such games despite suiting up just 11 times last year. Campbell missed most of the year with injury but could play a pivotal role in a revived Colts offense with Philip Rivers at QB.

Speaking of Old Man Rivers, he is a bargain QB2 in round 12 along with second-year man Drew Lock, who now has a pair of new receivers in Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler.

When searching for a potential breakout tight end, a la Darren Waller last year, try Ian Thomas, Irv Smith Jr., or Chris Herndon IV. While tight ends will be taken higher than usual in FFPC, these players should all be around past the 10th round.

 

Last Word

The unofficial start of draft season for single-season fantasy football leagues won't come for another three months. Best Ball leagues have been drafting since February. Now that free agency and the NFL Draft have taken place, this is the perfect time to start building teams with an eye toward winning prize money. Those who are short on time or simply don't like to mess with K/DST on their fantasy squads should look no further than FFPC Best-Ball Slim Leagues.

As always, the strategies laid out here are suggestions provided to give RotoBaller readers an edge. Ultimately, the draft is in your hands. Every league players out differently and every owner values players in their own way. Our Best-Ball rankings are a great starting point no matter what league type you choose. Good luck!

More Best-Ball League Strategy




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Players Editor Note NFL Analysis Radio RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles Video

Fantasy Bomb Pod - Best-Ball Busts and Draft Avoids

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano list the players they are avoiding at current ADP in early best-ball drafts.

Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!

Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET and Sunday nights from 9-11 PM ET. You can also find new weekly shows on the site under RotoBaller Radio podcasts.

 

Buyer Beware

Pierre and Chris identify and discuss their top ADP busts for best-ball leagues in 2020.

Players discussed include:

Kenyan Drake
Devin Singletary
A.J. Brown
Darrell Henderson
Marquise Brown



Thanks for listening to today's episode! Be sure to tune in throughout the week, and to also follow RotoBaller on Twitter, YouTube and iTunes for the latest fantasy news and analysis.

Win Big with RotoBaller in 2020!

More RotoBaller Radio Videos and Podcasts




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis Editor Note Featured Football #2 NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Wide Receiver Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis

The Best-Ball draft process continues to escalate, at a time in which owners are searching for any form of fantasy football that can be embraced. The enticement of being able to build a roster that will not require in-season management also adds incentive to participate in this format.

The team at RotoBaller has just updated our tiered rankings that will help you prepare for your upcoming drafts. That includes our Best Ball rankings, which provide you with a valuable resource toward building league-winning rosters during 2020. We are also delivering a detailed analysis of these rankings, to boost your chances of fulfilling your championship aspirations even further.

This breakdown will focus on wide receivers, which are essential components as you assemble your rosters. These players maintain a consistent presence throughout our rankings, as 22 receivers are included in our top 50, while 45 of these players are contained within our top 100. We will continue to update rankings in every format throughout the offseason and you can find the latest rankings here.

 

WR Best-Ball Rankings

Position Rank Position Tier Player Name Overall Rank Overall Tier Pierre Phil Mike
1 1 Michael Thomas 5 1 5 5 5
2 1 Tyreek Hill 9 1 7 10 8
3 1 Davante Adams 10 2 8 8 11
4 1 Chris Godwin 11 2 13 12 10
5 1 Julio Jones 12 2 12 13 14
6 1 DeAndre Hopkins 13 2 15 11 15
7 2 Amari Cooper 18 2 14 24 16
8 2 Mike Evans 20 3 20 18 22
9 2 Kenny Golladay 21 3 19 22 21
10 2 D.J. Moore 24 3 24 21 28
11 2 Odell Beckham Jr. 26 3 26 25 29
12 2 JuJu Smith-Schuster 27 3 23 27 36
13 2 Adam Thielen 28 3 37 33 19
14 2 Cooper Kupp 29 4 30 28 32
15 3 Allen Robinson 32 4 31 31 34
16 3 Courtland Sutton 33 4 32 36 33
17 3 Keenan Allen 35 4 36 34 38
18 3 A.J. Brown 37 4 34 50 37
19 4 Calvin Ridley 42 4 49 23 67
20 4 T.Y. Hilton 43 4 40 61 42
21 4 D.K. Metcalf 45 4 43 54 46
22 4 Robert Woods 47 4 48 44 54
23 4 D.J. Chark 52 5 53 51 52
24 4 Michael Gallup 53 5 51 52 55
25 4 Terry McLaurin 54 5 61 41 57
26 4 Stefon Diggs 55 5 63 42 56
27 4 DeVante Parker 56 5 41 76 45
28 4 A.J. Green 58 6 54 77 43
29 4 Tyler Lockett 59 6 62 48 68
30 5 Deebo Samuel 61 6 78 55 48
31 5 Julian Edelman 64 6 71 47 77
32 5 Tyler Boyd 65 6 77 75 47
33 5 Jarvis Landry 72 6 64 83 70
34 5 Mike Williams 74 7 79 66 81
35 5 Jerry Jeudy 76 7 118 64 58
36 6 John Brown 81 7 83 87 86
37 6 Robby Anderson 84 7 95 74 97
38 6 Emmanuel Sanders 86 7 94 81 96
39 6 Christian Kirk 89 8 68 108 103
40 6 Darius Slayton 91 8 85 115 87
41 7 Sterling Shepard 94 8 103 88 104
42 7 Marvin Jones 96 8 104 92 106
43 7 Marquise Brown 97 8 92 120 92
44 7 Anthony Miller 98 8 107 100 109
45 7 Will Fuller 100 9 105 104 108
46 7 Brandin Cooks 101 9 99 119 102
47 7 Curtis Samuel 102 9 96 109 118
48 8 Diontae Johnson 110 9 119 116 98
49 8 Golden Tate 112 10 123 112 105
50 8 Preston Williams 114 10 116 104 122
51 8 Ceedee Lamb 116 10 129 84 135
52 8 Alshon Jeffery 121 10 80 165 121
53 8 Breshad Perriman 122 10 154 134 82
54 8 Dede Westbrook 124 10 138 93 145
55 8 Tyrell Williams 126 10 143 124 114
56 9 Mecole Hardman 133 10 134 130 141
57 9 Jamison Crowder 134 10 133 169 104
58 9 Sammy Watkins 135 11 149 103 156
59 9 N'Keal Harry 138 11 140 127 147
60 9 James Washington 139 11 148 118 155
61 9 Larry Fitzgerald 145 11 194 103 150
62 9 Cole Beasley 148 12 188 #N/A 119
63 9 Justin Jefferson 158 13 166 153 171
64 10 Hunter Renfrow 159 13 186 111 199
65 10 Andy Isabella 161 13 192 102 205
66 10 Parris Campbell 165 13 177 147 182
67 10 John Ross 170 13 172 173 177
68 10 Corey Davis 174 13 185 157 198
69 10 Albert Wilson 177 13 183 180 188
70 10 Kenny Stills 182 14 174 205 179
71 10 Steven Sims 185 14 213 208 143
72 10 Randall Cobb 186 14 168 224 173
73 10 Tre'Quan Smith 189 14 223 161 195
74 10 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 190 14 225 158 197
75 10 Allen Lazard 199 14 199 #N/A 212
76 11 Tee Higgins 201 14 232 144 241
77 11 Auden Tate 202 15 220 #N/A 192
78 11 DeSean Jackson 203 15 152 308 160
79 11 Phillip Dorsett 210 15 260 #N/A 165
80 11 Michael Pittman Jr. 211 15 235 286 120
81 11 Jalen Reagor 215 15 245 152 252
82 11 Chris Conley 220 15 212 #N/A 227
83 11 Russell Gage 221 16 288 #N/A 154
84 11 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 224 16 246 178 253
85 11 Devin Funchess 231 16 243 192 250
86 11 Demarcus Robinson 233 16 266 151 271
87 11 Denzel Mims 235 16 315 145 #N/A
88 11 Torrey Smith 236 16 #N/A 231 #N/A
89 11 Jalen Hurd 238 16 255 177 262
90 11 Danny Amendola 239 16 231 225 240
91 11 Mohamed Sanu 243 16 236 220 243
92 11 Paul Richardson Jr. 246 16 #N/A 234 #N/A
93 11 Miles Boykin 250 17 256 186 263
94 12 Cody Thompson 252 17 #N/A 236 #N/A
95 11 Josh Reynolds 254 17 278 #N/A 196
96 11 Nelson Agholor 257 17 254 199 262
97 11 DaeSean Hamilton 258 17 250 210 258
98 11 Chris Hogan 261 17 #N/A 242 #N/A
99 11 Jakobi Meyers 265 18 240 #N/A 247
100 11 Ryan Grant 268 18 #N/A 246 #N/A
101 11 Keke Coutee 270 18 239 253 246
102 11 Quincy Enunwa 272 18 #N/A 247 #N/A
103 12 Taylor Gabriel 275 18 280 185 283
104 12 Chester Rogers 278 18 #N/A 252 #N/A
105 12 Dante Pettis 279 18 271 209 276
106 12 Kendrick Bourne 281 18 249 #N/A 257
107 12 Willie Snead 282 18 277 202 281
108 12 Greg Ward 285 18 297 #N/A 215
109 12 Keelan Cole 286 18 285 197 288
110 12 Justin Watson 290 18 306 212 #N/A
111 12 Geronimo Allison 291 18 291 200 293
112 12 Bryan Edwards 292 18 258 #N/A 265
113 12 Trey Quinn 294 18 #N/A 264 #N/A
114 12 Kelvin Harmon 296 18 237 311 244
115 12 KeeSean Johnson 298 18 309 222 #N/A
116 12 Hakeem Butler 301 19 272 251 277
117 12 Zach Pascal 305 19 267 #N/A 272
118 12 David Moore 306 19 233 293 284
119 12 Laviska Shenault Jr. 311 19 263 292 269
120 12 Riley Ridley 313 19 #N/A 276 #N/A
121 12 Demaryius Thomas 315 19 275 #N/A 280
122 12 Josh Doctson 316 19 #N/A 279 #N/A
123 13 Donte Moncrief 317 19 #N/A 280 #N/A
124 13 Adam Humphries 318 19 268 304 273
125 13 Ted Ginn 320 19 298 250 298
126 13 Devin Duvernay 326 19 #N/A 290 #N/A
127 13 Brandon Aiyuk 329 19 322 262 #N/A
128 13 Antonio Brown 330 19 300 278 300
129 13 Marquise Goodwin 334 19 284 312 287
130 13 Josh Gordon 337 19 311 285 #N/A
131 13 Mike Wallace 341 20 #N/A 300 #N/A
132 13 Henry Ruggs III 346 20 304 #N/A #N/A
133 13 Scott Miller 347 20 339 270 #N/A
134 13 Stanley Morgan Jr. 352 20 #N/A 307 #N/A
135 13 Robert Foster 356 20 347 281 #N/A
136 13 Antonio Callaway 358 20 #N/A 317 #N/A
137 13 Zay Jones 361 20 312 323 #N/A
138 13 J.J. Nelson 367 21 #N/A 321 #N/A
139 13 OlaBisi Johnson 369 21 323 #N/A #N/A
140 13 Gary Jennings 372 21 #N/A 326 #N/A
141 13 Allen Hurns 378 21 331 #N/A #N/A
142 13 Tajae Sharpe 381 21 334 #N/A #N/A
143 13 Tyler Johnson 382 21 335 #N/A #N/A
144 13 Tim Patrick 383 21 336 #N/A #N/A
145 13 Cordarrelle Patterson 386 21 340 #N/A #N/A
146 13 Damiere Byrd 387 21 342 #N/A #N/A
147 13 Byron Pringle 388 21 343 #N/A #N/A
148 13 Donovan Peoples-Jones 394 21 350 #N/A #N/A
149 13 Antonio Gandy-Golden 395 21 351 #N/A #N/A
150 13 Jakeem Grant 396 21 352 #N/A #N/A
151 13 Deon Cain 397 21 353 #N/A #N/A
152 13 KJ Hamler 400 21 356 #N/A #N/A
153 13 Chase Claypool 402 21 358 #N/A #N/A
154 13 Taywan Taylor 404 21 360 #N/A #N/A

 

Tier 1

Michael Thomas, Tyreek HillDavante Adams, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins

Thomas ascended to the top of nearly every major receiving category during 2019, while generating more fantasy points than any other wide receiver. He established career highs in targets (185), receptions (149), and receiving yards (1,735), captured double-digit target totals in a league-best 12 different contests and averaged 11.6 per game. Thomas also led the league in 100-yard performances (10), red-zone targets (26), and team target share (33), while also finishing third in percentage share of team’s air yards (41.34). Thomas seized his place at the pinnacle of his position during his exceptional season and is the first wide receiver to target during your drafts.

Hill returned from a debilitating shoulder issue in Week 6 and proceeded to finish sixth among all receivers with 844 receiving yards during his final 11 games. He was also third in touchdowns (7), 15th in targets (87), and 12th in receptions (56) during that span, while also accumulating 1,120 air yards. Hill still managed to lead the high-powered Chiefs in touchdowns, receptions and receiving yards despite his four-game absence, while cementing his status as a first-round selection. He is a candidate to collect 126+ targets while exceeding his previous career bests in receptions (87), and receiving yards (1,479) if he operates with Patrick Mahomes for 16 games.

Adams was languishing at WR56 in scoring through Week 9 after a protracted turf toe issue sidelined him from Weeks 5-8. He had also failed to eclipse 56 yards in three of his first five games and had not generated a touchdown through Week 11. But Adams captured 11.5 targets per game from Weeks 10-17 and was second overall in targets from Weeks 12-16 (57). He was also third in receptions (37) and tied for second in touchdowns (4) during that sequence while averaging 73.4 yards per game. Adams firmly re-established his place among the high-end WR1s once his health was restored, and remains a legitimate first-round selection.

Godwin soared to elite status during 2019, with a breakout season that matched even the most optimistic preseason projections. His massive statistical climb placed him at WR2 in scoring despite a two-game absence in Weeks 16-17 (hamstring), while he finished third in receiving yards (1,333), and fourth in touchdowns (9). Godwin was also first in receptions of 20+ yards (25) and led his position in Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). His speed and athleticism will help him remain proficient during Tampa Bay’s transition to Tom Brady under center. It will also keep him embedded within high-end WR1 status this season.

Jones has stockpiled nearly 970 targets, 623 receptions, and 9,388 yards since 2014 while averaging 162 targets, 104 receptions and 1,565 yards per year. That has propelled him to top seven finishes in scoring during each of those six seasons. His ability to sustain high-quality numbers continued during 2019, when he led the league in air yards (1,911) and was second in targets (157), and receiving yards (1,394). Jones also led the league in targets, receptions, and yardage from Weeks 15-17, while Calvin Ridley was sidelined (abdomen). He will provide a steady WR1 presence even though Ridley appears primed to deliver a breakout season.

Hopkins was a mainstay in each major category during his seven seasons with Houston. That includes finishing among the top five in PPR scoring during four of the past five seasons while averaging 162 targets, 105 receptions, 1,372 yards from 2017-2019. He has also averaged 166 targets per season since 2015 while performing without any lingering injuries. Last season he also finished among the top five in targets and receptions while finishing second in percentage share of team’s air yards (29.2), and broken tackles (9). Even if he experiences a slight reduction in target share while operating in Arizona’s offense, Hopkins remains a top-five receiver to target during your drafts.

 

Tier 2

Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, D.J. Moore, Odell Beckham Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, Cooper Kupp

Cooper finished 2019 at WR10 in PPR scoring, along with a collection of other accomplishments - 18th in targets (119/7.4 per game), 15th in receptions (79), seventh in receiving yards (1,189), and seventh in touchdowns (8). He also tied for 10th with 17 receptions of 20+ yards, and sixth with six receptions of 40+ yards. But his season-long achievements conceal his inconsistency, as he produced 80+ yards in nine different contests, but failed to surpass 49 yards in his other seven matchups. The disparity in his home/away splits was also sizable - 52/27 receptions, 869/320 receiving yards, 190/64 yards-after-catch and 16.7/11.9 yards per catch. But his weeks with disappointing production will be less problematic in the best ball format.

Evans has now captured 118+ targets, 67+ receptions, and 1,000+ yards in each of his six seasons while averaging 139 targets/77 receptions and 1,210 yards during that sequence. Evans was third in standard scoring and was leading the league in air yards (1,779) before experiencing a hamstring injury in Week 14. He was also seventh in targets, third in red-zone targets (17), and sixth in targeted air yards (15.3) before that issue occurred. Evans’ average depth of target was 4.7 yards higher than Godwin’s (15.2/10.5) which could be a factor with a 43-year old quarterback spearheading the Buccaneers' aerial assault. But he remains a borderline WR1.

Golladay finished a career-best ninth in PPR scoring, while leading the league in receiving touchdowns (11), and finishing sixth in receiving yards (1,190). Golladay was also second overall in receptions of 20+ yards (22) and tied for fourth with five 100-yard performances. Golladay also finished third overall with 1,745 air yards, was sixth in targeted air yards (15.4), within a Detroit passing attack that finished 28th in completion percentage. In addition to compiling career highs with his yardage and touchdown totals, he also established a career-best average of 18.3 yards per catch. He will operate as Detroit’s primary receiving option. while approaching WR1 territory for his owners.

Moore will turn 23 this month but has already delivered a breakout season. He was WR8 in PPR scoring from Weeks 1-15, before a concussion sidelined him in Weeks 16-17. He led all receivers in targets (75) and receiving yards (711) from Weeks 9-15, and was second in receptions during that span (48). He also finished inside the top 10 for each category despite the shortened season. Any concerns about Moore’s transition to a new quarterback should dissipate with the reminder that he was highly successful despite operating with Kyle Allen during 12 of his matchups. He retains the versatility to accrue significant target and yardage totals again this season.

Smith-Schuster was an early Round 2 selection during 2019 drafts, after finishing fourth in targets (166) fifth in receptions (111) and fifth in receiving yards (1,426) during 2018. But the horrific season that ensued included four missed games, and a devastating statistical plunge (69 targets/42 receptions/552 yards). His current ADP (34) reflects the optimism that he will experience a considerable upturn in his numbers. But the return of Ben Roethlisberger does not automatically guarantee that to occur. Diontae Johnson led all rookies in receptions last season (59) while James Washington and Eric Ebron lurk as additional threats to constrain Smith-Schuster’s usage and output.

A lingering sports hernia and Cleveland’s collection of coaching and player deficiencies contributed to Beckham’s uninspiring first season as a Brown. His 64.7 yards per game average established a new career-low, while his 74 receptions, four touchdowns and 7.8 yards per target average represented the second-lowest numbers of his career. But there are reasons for optimism in 2020, after he performed in 16 games, gathered 133 targets and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the fifth time in six seasons. He also finished fifth in air yards (1,720), and percentage share of team’s air yards (39), and was second in offensive snaps (1,021).

Thielen’s diminished usage (48 targets/4.8 per game) and output (30 receptions/418 yards) during 2019 were a byproduct of his protracted hamstring injury and Minnesota’s unyielding commitment to the run (29.2 attempts per game). He still manufactured 6 touchdowns, and 8 receptions of 20+ despite missing six contests. Thielen has recovered from last season’s health issue and is primed to function as the Vikings’ primary receiving weapon. He should also capture a significant percentage of the 94 targets that were distributed to Stefon Diggs last season.

Kupp evaded significant health problems throughout 2019 while finishing among the top 11 in targets (134), receptions (94) and receiving yards (1,161). He also finished fourth in PPR scoring, and third in receptions of 20+ yards (21). Kupp entered Week 6 as the league leader in targets (63/12.6 per game), while also averaging 8.2 receptions/101 yards per game. But those averages declined from Weeks 6-17 (6.5 targets 4.8 receptions/59.6 yards per game) while he trailed Robert Woods in each category. He was also third behind Woods and Tyler Higbee in targets, receptions and receiving yards from 12-17, and might not match the expectations of his current ADP (28).

 

Tier 3

Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown

Robinson returned to the top 7 in scoring for the first time since 2015, while soaring to third overall in targets (154). His usage launched him to third among all receivers in team target share (27.1), which also propelled the 26-year old Robinson to sixth with a career-best 98 receptions. He also placed 13th in receiving yards (1,147), sixth in air yards (1,680), and fifth in percentage share of teams’ air yards (38.5). Robinson remains embedded as the Bears’ primary receiving option regardless of whether he is collecting passes from Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky.

Sutton led the NFL in percentage share of team’s air yards (42.93) during his breakout season, while also finishing 15th in targets (125), 16th in air yards (1,436), and 17th in receiving yards (1,112), After operating with Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen from Weeks (1-11), Sutton finished 12th in targets (38/8 per game) with Drew Lock spearheading Denver’s offense from Weeks 13-17. But he was only 24th in receptions (4.4 per game) and 25th in receiving yards (56 per game) during that sequence. Sutton won’t face the same amount of double coverage if the Broncos draft a top receiving prospect.

After experiencing a sequence of health issues that sidelined him for 25 contests from 2014-2016, Allen has not missed a game during the last three seasons. He has also averaged 148 targets, 101 receptions and 1,263 yards per season during that span. This includes his usage and output from 2019 (149 targets/104 receptions/1,199 yards) which propelled him to WR6 in PPR scoring. However, his ability to sustain those numbers is now in question due to the switch from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor. His ADP (40) indicates that savvy owners are avoiding Allen at his customary location (Rounds 2/3).

Brown was averaging 3.8 targets, 2.3 receptions and 45.5 yards-per-game from Weeks 1-6 when Marcus Mariota was under center for Tennessee. But after Ryan Tannehill became the Titans’ starting signal-caller, Brown averaged 6.1 targets, 3.8 receptions, and 77.8 yards-per-game, while also generating six touchdowns. Brown also led all wide receivers in yardage (605) and touchdowns (5) from Weeks 12-17, and his late-season output vaulted him to the lead in fantasy scoring among all rookies. He also attained the NFL’s highest yards-per-target average (12.5) and has already commandeered Tennessee’ WR1 responsibilities.  Continued development as a receiver will propel his output even higher.

 

Tier 4

Calvin Ridley, T.Y. Hilton, D.K. Metcalf, Robert Woods, Michael Gallup, D.J. Chark, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, DeVante Parker, A.J. Green, Tyler Lockett

Ridley became a clear beneficiary when Mohamed Sanu was dispatched to New England, as he experienced a rise in targets, receptions, and yardage per game (6.2/8.2 targets, 4.1/5.6 receptions, 53.2/82.1 yards). That pace equated to 131 targets, 91 receptions, and 1,314 yards over 16 games. He was also 20th in targets (93), 19th in receptions (63), 22nd in receiving yards (866), and seventh in touchdowns (7) before an abdominal injury ended his season after Week 14. He also finished fifth in Football Outsiders' DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and is the preeminent breakout candidate for 2020.

Hilton averaged 131 targets, 76 receptions, and 1,206 yards from 2013-2018. But a troublesome calf sidelined Hilton for six games in 2019, as he registered career lows in each of those categories (68 targets/45 receptions/501 yards). His 6-year average of 15.9 yards per reception also dropped to 11.1, while his 9.2 yards per target average fell to 7.4. It will be difficult for Hilton to match his pre-2019 numbers even though Jacoby Brissett will no longer guide the offense.

Metcalf’s 2019 results surpassed the projections of observers who questioned both his reliability and his collegiate route tree. He became the only rookie to reach 100 targets, led newcomers in red zone targets (18), and finished third in receiving yards (900) and touchdowns (7). His immense talent should fuel further on-field growth while launching his usage and output beyond the numbers that he attained last season. He could also surpass teammate Tyler Lockett in target share and targeted air yards.

Woods led the Rams in team percentage of air yards (23.5) and target share (22.5). He also finished eighth overall in targets, while accumulating five more than Kupp (139/134). Kupp’s league leadership in this category from Weeks 1-5 was mentioned previously. But Woods paced the Rams from Weeks 6-17 and vaulted to third among all receivers from Weeks 12-17 behind only Thomas and Adams. Woods also generated 1,100+ yards for a second consecutive year (1,134), tied for fourth in offensive snaps (1,009) and delivers enticing value at his ADP (60).

Weeks 1-5  Targets/Game Yards/Tar Targets Recepts Yards  TD
Cooper Kupp 12.6 8 63 41 505 4
Robert Woods 9.4 7.6 47 31 355 0
Brandin Cooks 6.8 9.6 34 20 325 1
Weeks 6-17  Targets/Game Yards/Tar Targets Recepts Yards  TD
Robert Woods 9.2 8.5 92 59 779 2
Cooper Kupp 6.5 9.2 71 53 656 6
Brandin Cooks 4.2 6.8 38 22 258 1
Weeks 12-17  Targets/Game Yards/Tar Targets Recepts Yards  TD
Robert Woods 11.3 8.4 68 45 568 2
Cooper Kupp 6.7 7.9 40 33 316 5
Brandin Cooks 4.5 6.7 27 15 181 1

Gallup’s late-season statistical momentum vaulted him to eighth among all receivers in targets (67) and fifth in receiving yards (653) from Weeks 10-17. That helped him place 18th in targets per game (8.1) and 1,107 receiving yards (1,107) for the season. He was also eighth in receptions of 20-plus yards (18) and 19th in air yards (1,405), despite missing two matchups (knee). He should achieve weekly WR2 status, which will supply outstanding value at his current ADP (72).

Chark wasn’t selected until Round 20 in the majority of 2019 best ball drafts but soared to ninth in touchdowns (8), 21st in targets (118), and 19th in receptions (73). He was also 11th in percentage share of team’s air yards (33.1), 17th in air yards (1,413), and tied for 10th with 17 receptions of 20+ yards. Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole and Chris Conley currently comprise the depth chart below Chark, who should operate as the Jaguars’ leading receiver once again.

McLaurin was second among rookies in scoring (WR24), receptions (58), and yards-per-game average (65.6) during 2019. He was also sixth overall in percentage share of team’s air yards (37.09), and 10th in yards-per-target average (9.9).  Health issues (hamstring/concussion) sidelined him for two matchups and kept him from the surpassing 1,000 yards (919). But he is entrenched as Washington’s primary receiving weapon.

Diggs accrued 450 targets, 313 receptions, and 3,903 yards during his final four seasons with Minnesota. Diggs also finished second in yards per target (12.0), second in percentage share of team’s air yards (41.5), and fourth in yards per reception (17.9) during 2019. But his disenchantment with the Vikings necessitated his migration to Buffalo. He now becomes the Bills’ WR1 but will have difficulty matching his averages from 2017-2018 (122 targets/83 receptions/1,076 yards).

Parker experienced a career renaissance during his fifth season, after averaging 5.4 targets, 3.1 receptions, and 41.8 yards per game from 2015-2018. But those averages soared to 8 targets, 4.5 receptions and 75.1 yards per game in 2019, as Parker finished among the top 20 in each category – including fourth in yardage. Parker averaged 9.5 targets/5.5 receptions/100 yards per game from Weeks 10-17 after Preston Williams suffered a knee injury. But Parker has emerged as a viable target in Round 6.

From 2011-2017, Green stockpiled 8,213 yards, 947 targets, 556 receptions, and 57 touchdowns. He also collected 100+ targets in all seven seasons, while eclipsing 1,000 yards six times. However, a season-ending hamstring injury that he encountered in Week 11 of 2016 initiated a four-year sequence in which he has missed 29 games – including all of 2019. Now, he is healthy and is expected to resurface in Cincinnati’s renovated passing attack.

Lockett was ninth in targets (72/8 per game). fourth in receptions (59/6.5 per game), and yardage (767/85.2 per game) entering Week 10. But those averages dropped to 5.7 targets/3.3 receptions/44 yards per game from Weeks 11-17. He can function as a weekly WR3, but the emergence of Metcalf will keep him from surpassing his 2019 production.

 

Tier 5

Deebo Samuel, Julian Edelman, Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry, Mike Williams, Jerry Jeudy

Samuel is currently San Francisco’s WR1 after finishing 12th in receiving yards from Weeks 10-17 (575). Edelman will be 34 in May. But he remains the Patriots’ top receiving weapons after finishing fourth in targets (153/9.6 per game).

Only six receivers accrued more targets than Boyd (148/9.3 per game) although the expected return of Green will impact his opportunities.

Landry established a new career-high in receiving yards (1,174), registered the second-highest yards-per-target average of career (8.5), and collected more targets (138), and receptions (83) than Beckham.

Williams continued his ascension from a forgettable 2017 season (23 targets/11 receptions/95 yards) to eclipse 1,000 yards and lead the league in targeted air yards (17.4).

Jeudy’s ranking could be altered following the NFL draft. But the explosive 6’1” rookie possesses the route running acumen to launch his road to stardom this season.

 

Tier 6

John Brown, Robby Anderson, Emmanuel Sanders, Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton

Brown achieved career highs in targets (115), receptions (72), and receiving yards (1,060) while finishing eighth in percentage share of team’s air yards (36.1). But he will not match those numbers with Diggs commandeering a sizable percentage of opportunities.

Anderson would be far more enticing had he resurfaced in a more favorable environment, while Kirk’s appeal has also declined following Bill O’Brien’s mind-blowing trade of DeAndre Hopkins. Sanders became one of free agency’s’ biggest winners by relocating in New Orleans - where he instantly becomes the Saints’ WR2.

Slayton led all rookies in targeted air yards (14.5) and tied for first in touchdowns with eight. He also finished fifth among newcomers with 12 receptions of 20+ yards, while averaging 7.3 targets/63 yards per game from Weeks 6-14.

 

Tiers 7 and lower

The receivers that are contained in Tiers 7-8 can be located from WR41-WR55 in our rankings. However, a sizable number of factors can emerge in upcoming weeks which would alter their value.

More Best-Ball League Strategy


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers Editor Note NFL Analysis Radio RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles Video

Fantasy Bomb Pod - Must-Have Best-Ball Draft Targets

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano name their top value picks and must-have draft targets for the middle and later rounds of best-ball leagues before the 2020 NFL Draft.

Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!

Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET and Sunday nights from 9-11 PM ET. You can also find new weekly shows on the site under RotoBaller Radio podcasts.

 

Only the Best Will Do

Pierre and Chris identify and discuss their favorite picks for early best-ball drafts based on ADP.

Players discussed include:

Emmanuel Sanders
Jack Doyle
Justin Jackson
Boston Scott
James Washington



Thanks for listening to today's episode! Be sure to tune in throughout the week, and to also follow RotoBaller on Twitter, YouTube and iTunes for the latest fantasy news and analysis.

Win Big with RotoBaller in 2020!

More RotoBaller Radio Videos and Podcasts




Categories
2020 Fantasy Football Advice 2020 Fantasy Football Projections & ADP Analysis Editor Note Featured Football NFL Analysis RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

Running Back Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis

The Best Ball draft process continues to escalate, at a time that owners are searching for any form of fantasy football that can be embraced. The enticement of being able to build a roster that will not require in-season management also adds incentive to participate in this format.

The ranking experts at RotoBaller have just updated our tiered rankings that will help you prepare for your upcoming drafts. That includes our Best Ball rankings, which provide you with a valuable resource toward building league-winning rosters during 2020. We are also delivering a detailed analysis of these rankings, to boost your chances of fulfilling your championship aspirations even further.

That includes this breakdown of the critical running back position. These players maintain an unmistakable presence in our rankings, as seven backs are currently located among the top 10, while 23 are contained within our top 50. We will continue to update rankings in every format throughout the offseason and you can find the latest rankings here.

 

RB Best-Ball Rankings

Position
Rank
Position
Tier
Player
Name
Overall
Rank
Overall
Tier
Pierre Phil Mike
1 1 Christian McCaffrey 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 Saquon Barkley 2 1 2 2 2
3 1 Ezekiel Elliott 3 1 4 3 3
4 1 Dalvin Cook 4 1 3 4 4
5 1 Joe Mixon 6 1 12 6 6
6 1 Nick Chubb 7 1 10 7 7
7 1 Alvin Kamara 8 1 7 9 9
8 2 Aaron Jones 14 2 9 16 17
9 2 Derrick Henry 15 2 16 19 13
10 2 Josh Jacobs 16 2 17 20 12
11 2 Austin Ekeler 17 2 18 15 20
12 2 Leonard Fournette 24 3 26 17 31
13 2 Miles Sanders 25 3 29 29 18
14 3 Melvin Gordon III 30 4 28 40 26
15 3 Kenyan Drake 32 4 42 30 24
16 3 Jonathan Taylor 34 4 34 35 35
17 3 Todd Gurley II 35 4 27 53 27
18 4 Chris Carson 40 4 33 37 63
19 4 Damien Williams 41 4 58 38 40
20 4 Devin Singletary 45 4 44 38 62
21 4 Le'Veon Bell 46 4 52 63 30
22 4 Marlon Mack 49 4 51 59 38
23 4 Mark Ingram II 50 5 41 65 44
24 5 D'Andre Swift 57 5 57 45 64
25 5 David Johnson 63 6 76 69 51
26 5 David Montgomery 66 6 71 62 69
27 5 James Conner 67 6 74 70 60
28 5 Kerryon Johnson 71 6 66 78 71
29 5 Kareem Hunt 73 6 81 58 84
30 5 Phillip Lindsay 77 7 82 82 85
31 6 Sony Michel 83 7 90 85 88
32 6 Jordan Howard 86 7 114 96 61
33 6 Derrius Guice 88 8 75 68 132
34 6 Raheem Mostert 92 8 98 94 100
35 6 Darrell Henderson Jr. 95 8 123 79 93
36 6 Devonta Freeman 98 8 110 91 116
37 7 J.K. Dobbins 104 9 93 136 94
38 7