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College Football Betting Picks for Week Eight (10/24/2020)

At long last, Big Ten (and Mountain West) football is BACK. This weekend, opportunities to see sensational NFL prospects like Justin Fields, Pat Freiermuth, and Rashod Bateman will be littered across the television guide. If there was ever a Saturday to schedule a date with your couch and television, this might be the one.

Week Seven brought a disappointing 1-2 record. Temple overcame a slow start to hold off South Florida, but not by the margin that we needed, and Boston College faltered badly in primetime against Virginia Tech. Luckily, Western Kentucky and UAB nearly crossed the over in the first-half to notch our only win of last week. The season-long record is now 10-8, as we hope to end the two-week slide this week.

Week Eight's slate includes a few exciting games for teams making their season debuts. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

 

Rutgers at Michigan State (-13.5)

O/U: 44.5

Piscataway, New Jersey , has become the laughingstock of the Big Ten. Rutgers, losers of 21 straight conference games, made a big move this offseason by bringing back the program's most successful coach of all-time in Greg Schiano to lead the program once more. Schiano immediately hit the transfer portal to pick up players that could contribute right away such as 2nd team all-Big Ten returner and receiver Aron Cruickshank (Wisconsin), tight end Jovani Haskins (West Virginia) and five defensive linemen from Power 5 schools. Nearly 40% of the players on the 2020 roster are newcomers, and Schiano is beginning to generate a buzz. This infusion of talent will not turn Rutgers into a contender overnight, but it will give 2018 starting quarterback Artur Sitkowski, who took a redshirt year in 2019 to focus on his development, more weapons than any Rutgers quarterback has had since the program's days as a member of the Big East Conference.

The 2020 offseason was tumultuous in East Lansing. After Coach Mark Dantonio resigned, while the program was allegedly under investigation, the team's desperate coaching search for his successor had little success. With top options like Luke Fickell and Pat Narduzzi opting to stay with Cincinnati and Pitt, respectively, the Spartans took an unconventional and unusually late route hiring Mel Tucker away from Colorado in mid-February. The 48-year old Tucker had just wrapped up a 5-7 year in his first and only campaign in Boulder, but brings a strong defensive pedigree with NFL experience and collegiate experience as an understudy to Nick Saban and as Kirby Smart's defensive coordinator at Georgia. 2020 marks the start of a rebuild, replacing 14 starters from a year ago - a 7-6 team that had one of the least productive offenses in college football. Without the benefit of spring practice, and with position battles still ongoing through game week (Michigan State's quarterback race was still unsettled with four contenders), expectations may be at an all-time low for this program.

The Scarlet Knights have been beaten by the Spartans in their last six matchups, but this year's matchup between a pair of new coaches feels different. Sitkowski was a highly sought after quarterback recruit who has never had many weapons at his disposal, but has shown glimpses including a strong performance against Boston College last season. The speedy Cruickshank was underutilized at Wisconsin and should become the go-to option early on. Looking down the road, this game may be each team's most winnable game on the schedule, an opportunity that Coach Schiano will seek to maximize.

Pick: Rutgers +13.5

#3 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (-13.5)

O/U: 44.5

The Fighting Irish overcame a mini-scare to hold off Louisville last week and preserve their spotless 4-0 record. The passing game still has some flaws, but the rushing attack has powered Notre Dame thus far. Sophomore Kyren Williams and freshman Chris Tyree lead the way as a fearsome duo of running backs that led an Irish rushing attack bulldozing Florida State to the tune of 353 rushing yards. The youngsters' success is made possible by the best offensive line in football, featuring at least five legitimate NFL draft prospects with multiple years of starting experience. Before last week's lackluster 12-7 win, the offense had seemingly been able to do as it pleased with comfortable wins over Duke, South Florida and Florida State. Senior quarterback Ian Book should be expected to bounce back from his poor performance last week to help the Irish passing attack compliment the elite rushing offense.

Pitt found out the hard way last week how difficult life could be without their star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett, who was on his way to a campaign worthy of discussions in the Heisman race, was replaced by redshirt freshman Joey Yellen, a talented four-star transfer from Arizona State. Yellen looked nervous and floated a few throws in the first half, but settled in and seemingly became comfortable behind solid pass protection versus a staunch Miami defense. The Panthers' leading receiver is freshman sensation Jordan Addison, who is a threat to take any play to the house with his speed. The problem for Pitt, offensively, has been running the ball. Pickett had been arguably the team's biggest rushing threat up until his ankle injury, which is expected to keep him out of this week's contest. At one point, Pitt had five running backs designated as co-starters on its depth chart, to no success. In order to have a chance of upsetting the Irish, Pitt will need to develop some sort of threat on the ground to open up the passing game for Yellen.

The defenses for both teams, while rightly praised, have been torched for big plays quite a bit more than one would expect so far. Pitt, for instance, has the nation's leader in sacks (Patrick Jones II) and one of the most talented defensive lines in college football, but continually plays man-to-man press coverage on the outside with the undersized, but talented, 5-foot-8 cornerback Marquis Williams. If Coach Pat Narduzzi sticks to his stubborn defensive philosophy, Notre Dame will follow the blueprint set in their last three losses to North Carolina State, Boston College, and Miami, by attacking Williams and his fellow cornerback Jason Pinnock over and over again until they break a big play.

Pick: Over 44.5

Texas State at Brigham Young (BYU) (-28.5)

O/U: 61.5

Coach Jake Spavital, in his 2nd year commanding the Texas State Bobcats, is one of the youngest coaches in football at age 35. Spavital brought the air raid concept to San Marcos, which he embraced as Dana Holgorsen's offensive coordinator for two seasons at West Virginia. So far, the Bobcats' offense has had its fair share of success through the air, but the defense is ultimately holding the team back from winning more games. At quarterback, Brady McBride gives Coach Spavital the prototypical gunslinger that he's looking for his system, and McBride has done a good job of spreading the targets to senior receiver Jeremiah Haydel and five other pass-catchers with double digits receptions this year. On defense, the Bobcats allow nearly 450 yards of offense per game, and might need a miracle to keep BYU under their season average of 43 points per game. 

Junior quarterback Zach Wilson and the BYU Cougars are playing inspired football and are off to the first 5-0 start for the program since 2008. Head coach Kelani Sitake's team is firing on all cylinders, with a strong offense averaging over 43 points per game, and a solid defense pulling its weight in recent weeks with a convincing 43-26 win on the road at Houston. The offense, which is averaging a staggering 541 yards per game, should score at will in yet another favorable matchup against a lousy defense.

Another week, another large BYU spread. The Cougars are starting to garner College Football Playoff conversation, and for good reason. The team has convincingly dispatched of its opponents thus far in impressive fashion, and has shaped up the narrative for a second half push. The second half of the Cougars schedule, which features marquee games versus Boise State and San Diego State, will put their playoff resume to the test. Winning games like this in convincing fashion will be necessary if BYU wants to earn a spot in the prestigious playoff.

Pick: Over 61.5



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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - ZOZO Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Close calls have been the name of the game for me in this OAD contest, as Tyrrell Hatton was unable to get himself across the finish line over the weekend at Shadow Creek. His payout did add onto my total $565,500, but it most likely won't be enough since I am still down nearly 2.3 million dollars. Josh found himself in a similar situation with a surging Bubba Watson, but victories are the only way out of this hole we have dug ourselves into.

There are just four tournaments left in this 2020 contest, and the clock is just about to strike midnight. Can either of us strike up a formula to give ourselves a chance? Or is Joe's victory a foregone conclusion? Let's find out who the guys are selecting to get some answers.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - ZOZO Championship

Joe NicelyTyrrell Hatton

Alternate - Joaquin Niemann

How disastrous was my Matthew Wolff last week? I’m not gonna lie, a pick going that wrong can shake your confidence in a hurry...especially when it comes on the heels of a Harris English missed cut at the Shriners.

Luckily, I still have a lead in this OAD contest with the season winding down, although Spencer and Josh don’t seem to be willing to go down without a fight. I’m gonna try to land a haymaker this week with Tyrrell Hatton, a scrapper if I’ve ever seen one. The Englishman has been white hot as of late, notching a victory at the BMW in Europe two weeks ago and posting a T3 last week at the CJ Cup. I am a bit worried about the fatigue factor with Hatton, but it is tough to ignore a player that gained over NINE strokes on Approach last week at Shadow Creek. We’re making some educated guesses as to how this week’s Sherwood Country Club layout will play, but we can expect plenty of long irons to be required...an area where Hatton thrives

Yearly Earnings - $7,811,657

Yearly Cuts Made - 25/30

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Viktor Hovland

Alternate - Scottie Scheffler

I am playing a numbers game right now. Down nearly 2.3 million with only four events left is not promising, but I have a total in mind (1.5 million) that I would like to be at entering the Masters. If I can get there, which isn't very likely, watch out. Bryson is coming.

Part of the issue with my plan is that next week's Bermuda Championship pays less than some of my wagers. I know I've been accused of tampering with Joe's players while they were in Las Vegas, but what is this schedule? No-cut event after no-cut event. Payouts that equal a birdie in my Skins game. Joe is running out the clock with the refs in his back pocket.

Unfortunately, options are thin for me in California, as I have used the top-11 priced golfers on the board. I believe any conventional wisdom is out the window since I need a victory, but I can't find a "safer" spot to go than Viktor Hovland. Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa have a ton of win equity sprinkled between them, and I feel like my best course of action is to take the discounted version of those two and hope he catches fire with his putter for a few days. The deck seems to be stacked against me, but I will continue to count cards for as long as this is mathematically possible to do so.

Yearly Earnings - $5,528,192

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/30

 

Josh Bennett - Matthew Wolff

Alternate - Russell Henley

Joe whiffed on Wolff last week, so now is a great time to jump on him in a perfect bounce-back spot. Spencer still has him available and wouldn’t be surprised if he used him as well, but we’re mostly worried about how to catch Joe right now. The popular saying with Wolff this week is that it’s a “home game” for him. That’s great, and maybe it helps? However, there are plenty of guys that play poorly at courses they are familiar with or live near too, so I am not using that as my reasoning for using him, although I hope it is helpful.

After looking over the course, I think this place will really favor a long hitter that also plays well from the 175-200 yard range. The long hitter part is obvious by now for Wolff. He should have a significant advantage there on all the par 5’s and a handful of par 4’s. The majority of the other holes will leave him with shots in the yardage range I mentioned earlier. Although he isn’t spectacular in proximity from that range, you don’t necessarily need to be when the greens are large like they are here. Birdies are hard to come by anyway from that far away, so I’m more concerned about being able to get it on the green and make par.

A guy with his length will be able to make up birdies on many other holes. I looked over at the GIR % from the 175-200 range and Wolff pops into the top 15 in 2020 in that statistic, so he’ll give himself tons of chances for birdie (even if they’re long chances), and easy finishes for par. One thing I will trust with his experience on the course is knowing the greens, which I think gives him a leg up on putting, so if he’s consistently getting the ball onto the green he shouldn’t have any problems at minimum walking away with easy pars on those holes. If he can get lucky and roll a few of the longer ones in, I think there’s a chance he could even run away with this thing.

Yearly Earnings - $4,589,627

Yearly Cuts Made - 25/30

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236
Corales Puntacana Will Zalatoris $117,000 Patrick Rodgers $93,000 Kristoffer Ventura $9,580
Sanderson Doc Redman $46,200 Charley Hoffman $201,300 Will Zalatoris $0
Shriners Harris English $0 Joaquin Niemann $125,417 Rickie Fowler $0
CJ Cup Matthew Wolff $16,575 Tyrrell Hatton $565,500 Bubba Watson $314,438

 

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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Thursday (10/22/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

The NFC East has the makings of one of the worst divisions in the modern history of the NFL and Thursday night brings an NFC East matchup between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. The teams may not be great but there are still chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Giants are 1-5, coming off their first win of the season, 20-19 over the Washington Football Team. With star running back Saquon Barkley injured, the Giants are having a really hard time moving the ball – their average of 4.7 yards per play is only better than the Washington Football Team and the New York Jets.

It’s not like the season has been a raging success for Philadelphia either. The Eagles are 1-4-1 and just lost starting running back Miles Sanders to a knee injury and tight end Zach Ertz to an ankle injury and they join an ever-growing list of injured Eagles. That doesn’t leave quarterback Carson Wentz with an ideal supporting cast but this is the NFC East, no one is running on all cylinders.

Nevertheless, here are some angles to consider for Thursday night’s NFL game on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

N.Y. GIANTS-PHILADELPHIA

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Carson Wentz LESS THAN 247.5 PASSING YARDS

The Eagles quarterback is averaging a modest 233.5 passing yards per game this season and his offense is depleted by injuries. He has thrown for 248 or more yards twice in six games. The Giants are average in terms of pass defense, allowing 235.5 passing yards per game and 6.5 net yards per pass attempt. Unless the Eagles somehow show that they are more explosive offensively, it could be hard for Wentz to reach what seems like an entirely reasonable number.

Daniel Jones MORE THAN 230.5 PASSING YARDS

Danny Dimes threw for more than 240 yards in his first two starts of the season but has struggled to throw the ball in the past four weeks, reaching a season-low 112 passing yards against Washington last week. Philadelphia’s defense is better than average against the pass, allowing 229.7 passing yards per game and 6.0 average net yards per pass attempt. With some expectation that the Giants may be trailing, maybe he bounces back and reaches this achievable threshold.

Travis Fulgham MORE THAN 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The real wildcard in the Philadelphia offense is Fulgham, a 25-year-old who had zero catches on three targets for the Lions in 2019 but has suddenly landed in the Philadelphia lineup and has put up 18 catches for 284 yards and three touchdowns on 26 targets in the past three games. He looks like he’s going to be Carson Wentz’s favorite target.

RAPID FIRE

Travis Fulgham -1.5 fantasy points vs. Devonta Freeman

Two players who have been thrust into prominent roles. A series of injuries opened the door for Fulgham to step into the Eagles lineup and he’s been so productive that he’s now indispensable. Freeman was a free agent waiting for the right opportunity to come along when Saquon Barkley tore his ACL. Freeman rushed for a season-high 61 yards last week but it has been a grind – he’s averaging 3.2 yards per carry.

Boston Scott +1.5 fantasy points vs. Darius Slayton

Philadelphia’s starting running back, Miles Sanders, left last week’s game with a knee injury and that opens the door for Scott to be Philadelphia’s lead back, with Corey Clement providing support in the backfield. Slayton is averaging 67.7 receiving yards per game and he has scored three touchdowns in six games. He also happens to be nursing a foot injury so if he’s slowed down at all that could open the door for Boston Scott to escape with a win in this matchup.

 



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monday (10/19/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

For the third time in six weeks this season, there will be two NFL games played on Monday night. It’s easy to get used to this kind of action and it also means twice as many chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The first game sees the defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs visiting the emerging Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs are 4-1 but coming off a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. The Bills are also 4-1 and coming off a lopsided loss at Tennessee.

The later game has the 3-2 Arizona Cardinals, third place in the NFC West, visiting the Dallas Cowboys. America’s Team is 2-3 yet still in first place in the NFC East. Both teams have some significant injuries to overcome.

Arizona has lost star pass rusher Chandler Jones for the rest of the season due to a torn biceps while Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is done for the season after breaking his ankle against the Giants in Week 5. Andy Dalton takes over at quarterback for the Cowboys.

Here are some angles to consider for yet another Monday night NFL double-header on Monkey Knife Fight:

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KANSAS CITY-BUFFALO

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Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 319.5 PASSING YARDS

Mahomes is averaging 294.8 passing yards per game this season, throwing for more than 320 yards in two of five contests. The Bills Defense hasn’t been up to expectations to this point and still they have allowed 263.2 passing yards per game and 6.7 net yards per pass attempt. The status of injured Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White could play a big part in this but it’s asking a lot for Mahomes to throw for 320-plus.

Josh Allen LESS THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS

While Allen is enjoying a breakthrough campaign, averaging 317.8 passing yards per game, the Chiefs aren’t going to be easy pickings. Kansas City has allowed just 225.5 passing yards per game, 6.5 net yards per pass attempt, so Allen will have to work for whatever he can accomplish in this game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire LESS THAN 72.5 RUSHING YARDS

The Chiefs rookie is facing the prospect of losing playing time to newly-signed Le’Veon Bell but not this week. Even so, Edwards-Helaire is averaging 68.8 rushing yards per game and has been held under 65 yards in each of the past four games.

RAPID FIRE

Stefon Diggs -6.5 receiving yards vs. Travis Kelce

Diggs has made a seamless transition to the Bills offense and is averaging 101.8 receiving yards per game, a lofty total that is out of reach for tight ends, including Kelce, who is averaging 81.0 receiving yards per game. There may be an extra look or two towards Kelce with wide receiver Sammy Watkins out but not enough to prefer him over Diggs this week.

Cole Beasley +0.5 receptions vs. Tyreek Hill

Hill is a playmaker but he’s not a high-volume receiver. He hasn’t had more than five catches in any game this season and that makes him a risky selection as the favorite against Beasley, Buffalo’s effective slot receiver. Beasley is averaging 4.8 receptions per game so getting an extra half reception gives him a worthwhile lead in terms of value.

 

ARIZONA-DALLAS

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MORE OR LESS

Andy Dalton LESS THAN 288.5 PASSING YARDS

This is a great opportunity for Dalton, the longtime Bengals starter who steps in as the Cowboys quarterback in the wake of Dak Prescott’s injury. Last season, in Cincinnati, Dalton passed for 289 yards or more four times in 13 games.

Kyler Murray LESS THAN 288.5 PASSING YARDS

The Cardinals quarterback is doing more in his sophomore season but he’s averaging 259.8 passing yards per game even after going for 380 yards against the Jets last week. Dallas’ defense has been pretty much average against the pass so far, allowing 248.6 passing yards per game and 6.8 net yards per pass attempt.

DeAndre Hopkins MORE THAN 6.5 RECEPTIONS

D-Hop had a season-low six receptions last week but is still averaging nine catches per game since landing in the desert. He’s easily the No. 1 receiver on the Cardinals depth chart and should be busy against Dallas.

Amari Cooper MORE THAN 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The Cowboys’ top receiver was invisible last week but had more than 80 yards receiving in the first four games of the season. Arizona has good numbers against the pass, allowing just 222.4 passing yards per game, 6.1 net yards per attempt, and while losing Chandler Jones likely means that the Cardinals won’t be as effective when rushing the passer, they will provide a tough test for the Cowboys. Still, Cooper has been a consistent threat for Dallas and should remain that way even after the quarterback change.

RAPID FIRE

Kenyan Drake +30.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott

Drake has been a disappointment for the Cardinals this season but is still active enough that he has averaged 62.8 rushing yards per game. Elliott has not been thriving in Dallas either, averaging 72.8 rushing yards per contest. Maybe there is a bigger role for Zeke with Dak Prescott sidelined but banking on more than a 30-yard gap against Drake is a big ask.



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Sunday (10/18/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Week 6 of the NFL season is upon us, which means a busy Sunday full of opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The season is now officially in bye week territory, and not just “Covid-19 cancelled the game so we’re calling it a bye” territory. Four teams had byes last week. Four more again this week and that includes the Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and Seahawks.

With a lighter schedule, you might think that the league would consider a bit of a balance between the early and late schedules but, of course, you would be wrong. There are nine games going early on Sunday afternoon, with just two games in the late afternoon window. I know, Brady vs. Rodgers is in that late window but it’s still a little tilted. Anyway, that should mean a better selection when looking at the early games on the Star Shootout.

Here are some Star Shootout angles to consider for Sunday’s NFL games on Monkey Knife Fight:

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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES

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MORE OR LESS

Matt Ryan MORE THAN 294.5 PASSING YARDS

It’s been a brutal season for the Falcons, and not so great for this week’s opposition, the Minnesota Vikings. Ryan has averaged 294.4 passing yards per game this season but that number is inflated by his 450 yards passing in Week 1. He has been held to 285 passing yards or fewer in each of the past four games. Minnesota’s pass defense hasn’t been very good, at least in part because of injuries in the secondary, and they’re allowing 271.4 passing yards per game, 7.5 net yards per pass attempt. That is vulnerable enough for Ryan to have success through the air.

Ben Roethlisberger LESS THAN 273.5 PASSING YARDS

This may come down to just how much the Steelers need to throw the ball because they haven’t had to chuck it that much on their way to a 4-0 record. Roethlisberger is averaging 254 passing yards per game and while the Browns Defense has allowed 296.4 passing yards per game, which is among the highest in the league, they are only giving up 6.5 net yards per pass attempt, which is right around league average.

Teddy Bridgewater LESS THAN 265.5 PASSING YARDS

The Panthers passing game has been surprisingly potent as Bridgewater is averaging 292 passing yards per game. However, the Bears Defense is good, really good. They have allowed 230.8 passing yards per game, which is good. They have allowed 5.7 net yards per pass attempt which is great, ranking third in the league. All that suggests that it could be a challenging day for Bridgewater.

Derrick Henry MORE THAN 105.5 RUSHING YARDS

This is a big number even for great runner like Henry. He is averaging 94 rushing yards through the first four games and has gone for more than 106 yards twice. He’s also going up against a Texans team that is surrendering 4.7 yards per carry and 160.4 rushing yards per game, they will certainly be vulnerable against the league’s most forceful runner. So even with that huge number, this might be the right matchup for Henry to get the job done.

RAPID FIRE

Allen Robinson -0.5 receptions vs. Julio Jones

After griping early in the season about not getting enough looks, Robinson has 27 catches on 39 targets in the past three games. Jones has missed the past couple of games with a hamstring injury and before that was targeted four times in each of the previous two games. That health uncertainty makes Robinson the safer play as a favorite.

Deshaun Watson +1.5 fantasy points vs. Lamar Jackson

As bad as the Texans have been overall, Watson is still productive enough, passing for more than 290 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. He also goes against a Titans teams that has been of the bend-don’t-break style of defense, so they have given up some yardage. Jackson has been good this season but not as electric as he was in 2019. There isn’t enough of an advantage going against Philadelphia’s defense to like Jackson as the favorite here.

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES

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MORE OR LESS

Aaron Rodgers LESS THAN 305.5 PASSING YARDS

Rodgers is having a fantastic season, which includes 13 touchdown passes in four games and he is averaging 303.5 passing yards per contest. He faces a Buccaneers Defense that is better than average, allowing 239.8 passing yards per game and 6.1 net yards per pass attempt.

Tom Brady LESS THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS

Brady has been productive in Tampa Bay, even though he’s had some key players miss time with injuries. He is averaging 275 passing yards per game and faces a Packers team allowing 247.5 passing yards per game and 6.8 net yards per pass attempt, which is fairly mediocre overall. This game could turn into a shootout between two legendary quarterbacks but they also could throw for 275 yards and three touchdowns apiece.

Aaron Jones MORE THAN 68.5 RUSHING YARDS

Jones is awesome, averaging 93.5 rushing yards per game this season, but he is facing a Bucs defense that is as sturdy against the run as any team in the league, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and an average of 58.4 rushing yards against per game. A slight lean towards the over.

Chris Godwin LESS THAN 16.5 FANTASY POINTS

Godwin has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury so that makes it difficult to count on a huge day in his return to action and producing at least 17 fantasy points, even with a PPR format, is still a big day.

RAPID FIRE

Davante Adams -0.5 receptions vs. Jamison Crowder

A bit of a running trend here is that some top receivers have been missing time recently due to hamstring injuries and that goes for Adams, who has missed the past two games and left early in Week 2. But, Adams is also the primary target for Aaron Rodgers and that included 17 targets and 14 catches in Week 1. Crowder is quite productive, and has 22 catches on 33 targets in the three games that he has played this season but there is a difference between being the No. 1 receiving option for Aaron Rodgers and the No. 1 receiving option for Joe Flacco.



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College Football Betting Expert Picks Week Seven (10/17/2020)

Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban contracted COVID-19, and it might not even be the biggest story in college football. This 2020 football season has brought so many unexpected turns of events that hall of fame coaches instructing their players over Zoom barely even registers.

Week Six brought a minor bump in the road, with a 1-2 record. Alabama got an unexpected scare before pulling away late in the second half from Ole Miss. Similarly, Notre Dame could not break loose of Florida State as the Seminoles covered the big spread behind a strong performance from quarterback Jordan Travis. Luckily in Provo, Utah, the UTSA Roadrunners gave the Cougars a scare before falling by a touchdown. The season-long record is now 9-6.

Week Seven gives us our last week of football before the Big Ten Conference starts play. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

 

South Florida at Temple (-10)

O/U: 54.5

Head Coach Jeff Scott spent the past five seasons as the co-offensive coordinator at Clemson before taking his first head coaching job with the South Florida Bulls. The 2020 season is off to an ugly start, with three losses by at least 20 points that followed a season-opening win over FCS-level The Citadel. Coach Scott is hoping to rejuvenate a once-proud program as he overhauled the staff and has hopes of developing a Clemson-like winning culture in Tampa. While the bumps and bruises of a young team will be felt throughout a low expectations year, Coach Scott hopes that his youth movement and young coaching staff, which is the youngest staff in the American Athletic Conference at an average age of 36.4, will pay dividends in the form of wins in the years to come.

The Temple Owls experienced significant turnover of their own this season when star defensive end Quincy Roche decided to transfer to Miami (FL). Roche is one of 8 starters from the Owls' 2019 defense who do not return this year. Despite this turnover, Coach Rod Carey feels confident that his defense can make enough stops and that his explosive offense will pace the team to a strong season. The offense is led by redshirt senior and third-year starting quarterback Anthony Russo. Russo threw for 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions a season ago, and has high hopes for a strong senior campaign, when he lines up behind a sterling offensive line with 4 seniors. Temple will hope to make the Russo-to-Branden Mack connection early and often, as Mack had 7 catches and a touchdown in the opening loss to Navy. 

When in doubt, experience wins out. With the continuity of eight offensive starters back for a senior quarterback, the Temple Owls should expect to put up a flurry of points on a team that has allowed 52, 28 and 44 points in their three losses. Coach Jeff Scott is making inroads on the recruiting trail, but the talent is not yet on campus and the process will take a few years to rebuild the South Florida Bulls into an AAC contender.

Pick: Temple -10

Western Kentucky at Alabama-Birmingham (UAB) (-13.5)

O/U: 44.5

This Conference-USA matchup is a homecoming of sorts for Western Kentucky Head Coach Tyson Helton, who spent six seasons as the quarterbacks and running backs coach at UAB. Helton's Hilltoppers are off to a slow 1-3 start this season, with former Maryland quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome at the helm. Pigrome is an above-average runner and underrated passer who gets to play behind four multi-season starting offensive linemen. The difficulty that Western Kentucky has had this season surrounds a failure to capitalize in big moments. In the team's three losses, they've converted less than one-third of their 3rd down opportunities, while allowing their opponents to convert at a clip closer to 50%. Pigrome's efficiency (6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions so far in 2020) and the ability to turn long drives into touchdowns rather than field goals will be crucial for the Hilltoppers if they hope to pull off the upset.

The UAB Blazers go as far as their star running back Spencer Brown will carry them. Brown has gained over 100-yards rushing in three of the team's four games so far in 2020, and is the 2nd highest active rusher in the NCAA with over 3,500 yards. Longtime starting quarterback Tyler Johnston III is still expected to miss the game due to a non-throwing shoulder injury, opening the door once more for redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero. Head Coach Bill Clark has opened up the playbook each game a bit more for the young freshman, before he threw for three touchdowns (and three interceptions) against UTSA. Coach Clark showed faith in his young quarterback and the playbook should once again be wide open for Lucero to operate. 

This matchup presents a must-win for Western Kentucky if the Hilltoppers hope to stay alive in the conference championship game hunt. With so much on the line, expect Western Kentucky to take more risks which will hopefully show up on the scoreboard. With each passing week, UAB has given the passing game more responsibilities, while leaning on the running game and Spencer Brown. If Lucero can eliminate the turnovers from the last game against UTSA, this offense should easily top its 30.5 average points per game this season.

Pick: Over 44.5

Boston College at Virginia Tech (-12)

O/U: 62

Boston College is off to an impressive 3-1 start under first-year Head Coach Jeff Hafley. Hafley has relied heavily on his Notre Dame transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who has thrown for 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this year. Jurkovec's top two targets - wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight tend Hunter Long - came up big in last week's 1-point overtime win over Pitt and will have to be a priority for the Hokies to hone in on. Boston College's defense has been a "bend, don't break" defense all season that has notched at least one interception in each game this season. The strong defensive backfield will hope to take advantage of the uneven Hokie quarterback play in 2020.

The Virginia Tech Hokies got pummeled last week in Chapel Hill by North Carolina. The defense had no solution for the Tar Heels' running game in the 56-45 loss. While the defense is in shambles, the offense has been churning at a prolific pace behind running back Khalil Herbert, a Kansas transfer, and his 10.4 yards per carry. At quarterback, junior Hendon Hooker missed the first two games after recovering from COVID-19, but returned in the loss to North Carolina. Hooker's performance was a mixed bag, with two touchdowns, but a meager 53.8% completion percentage.

Year in, year out, the Virginia Tech Hokies garner nationwide media attention and hype. For many years under Coach Frank Beamer, this hype was justified and warranted. Now, under Coach Justin Fuente, the hype is far less warranted, with only one ten-win season to his name. Boston College, meanwhile, has found a rhythm under arguably its best quarterback since Matt Ryan, and should cause problems for the Hokie defense all afternoon.

Pick: Boston College +12




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PGA DFS Vegas Report - CJ Cup (Premium Content)


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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - CJ Cup

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

It was a quiet weekend on the OAD front for our crew at the Shriners Open, as I was the only member that earned a payday with Joaquin Niemann's 13th place result in Vegas. Unfortunately, chipping away at Joe's lead isn't going to get the job done, and the prospects continue to look bleaker and bleaker for Josh and I with each passing event.

We do have a substantial purse up for grabs during our second league of the Vegas stretch, but the time to make a move will have to be now. With a field barely over 70 players, options are slightly more condensed to choose from because of what has transpired early in the season, and it will be interesting to see where the guys decide to go for one of the bigger tournaments left on the schedule.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek

Joe Nicely - Matthew Wolff

Alternate - Louis Oosthuizen

Ok, so I'm coming off my first complete and total misfire in awhile, as Harris English missed the cut last week at the Shriners. The player that I should have rolled with last week was Matthew Wolff, a young man whose game looked absolutely electric at TPC Summerlin.

Perhaps I'm a week late, but I'm not letting this kid pass me by again. If I go down for a second time in Vegas (this is Spencer's home court after all, so it's possible that he tampered with Harris English's equipment last week), it's gonna be swinging with Matty Wolff.

He's ridiculously long off the tee, which will come in handy on this 7,500-plus yard Shadow Creek masterpiece, but the 21-year-old has also been firing on all cylinders with his irons and has gained over six strokes on Approach in his last two starts. In addition to the ball striking, Wolff's touch around the greens continues to evolve, and he stands sixth in this elite field in SG: ATG over the last 12 rounds.

This might not be the most creative pick I've ever made in this contest, but it is one that I'm making with a truckload of conviction. I'm rolling the dice on Wolff and betting that he leaves Sin City as the week's big winner.

Yearly Earnings - $7,795,082

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/29

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Tyrrell Hatton

Alternate - Scottie Scheffler

Man, what I would give to cancel the Tour Championship from this contest. Not only did it result in Joe earning a 1.665 million dollar "victory" with Xander Schauffele, but it also took away Rory McIlroy from my player pool. If you have the Irishman left at your disposal, it will have to be here or the Masters, and I would lean towards this being the ideal spot to use your big gun.

Sadly, that option is off the table for me, and it has resulted in a last-minute switch-up that I didn't anticipate making. These have never historically gone well in recent memory, but I've decided to deploy Tyrrell Hatton over Scottie Scheffler. I have to assume Joe is going to rollout Matthew Wolff, and it just seemed to be more logical of a decision to take the guy coming into the event off of a win than playing the guy who just missed the cut.

Hatton has won three of his last 13 worldwide events, and while this is clearly a swing for the fence and hope for the best situation, I feel as if there may be a better location to play Scheffler at down the stretch. Hatton's starts on tour might be limited, and it probably doesn't make sense for me to leave the 10th-ranked player in the world on my board when I am down nearly three million dollars.

Yearly Earnings - $4,962,692

Yearly Cuts Made - 23/29

 

Josh Bennett - Bubba Watson

Alternate - Gary Woodland

After Rickie’s slip up last week I’m pretty sure there’s no chance I can catch Joe now, but we’re sure going to try! Going to need some weird things to happen, so hopefully that starts with Bubba winning another golf tournament.

We’ve learned that Bubba is only good on “Bubba tracks”, but he’s actually been playing good all over the place recently which is a good sign heading into a place where they haven’t played an event before. The course will favor a long hitter, and with Bubba’s ability to move the ball in both directions he should be able to take some angles down the fairways that others won’t be able to.

He’s also great with longer irons in his hands which will benefit him on a course where half the holes will require a shot over 175 yards to the green. His game around the green is not good, but if he can just have an above average week near and on the greens we will see his name near the top of the leaderboard. Hopefully it’s at the very top of the leaderboard, I need it.

Yearly Earnings - $4,275,189

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/29

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236
Corales Puntacana Will Zalatoris $117,000 Patrick Rodgers $93,000 Kristoffer Ventura $9,580
Sanderson Doc Redman $46,200 Charley Hoffman $201,300 Will Zalatoris $0
Shriners Harris English $0 Joaquin Niemann $125,417 Rickie Fowler $0

 

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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Tuesday (10/13/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Tuesday night brings more NFL action and that always means more chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Buffalo Bills are in control atop the AFC East – how long since we could say that? – with a 4-0 record. The odd thing about it is that the Bills offense has been so good, averaging 6.4 yards per play which ranks fourth in the league, that it has masked a defense that has now been as good as advertised. Buffalo’s defense is allowing 5.9 yards per play, which is not quite middle of the pack defensively.

The story of the Tennessee Titans isn’t so much about what’s happening on the field (though they are allowing 6.5 yards per play defensively, second-worst in the league), it’s that they have had a big Covid-19 breakout and have thrown schedules into chaos. Their Week 4 game was turned into a bye week. This week they are playing on Tuesday. Their facility has been opening and closing based on news of positive tests. It’s hard to imagine this is all conducive to playing their best football.

Even so, the Titans have a premier running game, when most of the league is focused on passing, and that zig appears to be working while others are zagging. Will it work well enough to knock the Bills from the ranks of the undefeated?

Here are some angles to consider for the Tuesday night NFL game on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

BUFFALO-TENNESSEE

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Josh Allen MORE THAN 290.5 PASSNG YARDS

Buffalo’s breakthrough star quarterback is averaging 331.5 passing yards per game through four weeks and Week 4 was the first time that he was held under 290 yards, finishing with 288 yards against the Raiders. Because of positive Covid-19 tests, Tennessee has played just three games right now, allowing 256.3 passing yards per contest, and 7.1 net yards per pass attempt, both of which are below average relative to the rest of the league.

Ryan Tannehill MORE THAN 240.5 PASSING YARDS

Tennessee’s quarterback is viewed as more of a game manager, and that’s fine. He has averaged 269.7 passing yards per game this season and 259.8 per game in 10 starts for the Titans last season. Buffalo’s games have been a little bit like pinball, with the Bills and their opponents both able to move the ball, so Buffalo’s defense has allowed 280.3 passing yards per game, which is quite high, and 6.7 net yards per pass attempt, which is below average defensively. With the potential return of Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown, all the more reason to lean into Tannehill for at least 241 passing yards.

Derrick Henry LESS THAN 100.5 RUSHING YARDS

The engine that drives the Tennessee offense, Henry averaged 102.7 rushing yards per game last season and is up to 106.3 per game early in 2020. The Bills are allowing 4.4 yards per carry, which is right at league average, but the Bills have been leading most of the time so their opponents tend not to run a whole lot, and Buffalo’s 101 rushing yards allowed per game is significantly better than average. It should be a competitive game but maybe not one in which the Titans are running out the clock, so banking on more than 100 rushing yards, even from Henry, is asking a lot.

Jonnu Smith MORE THAN 4.5 RECEPTIONS

The Titans tight end is a valuable complementary piece and has 13 catches in three games (4.33 per game) this season. With A.J. Brown returning to action, maybe there won’t be quite as many looks for Smith but given the choice between four or fewer or five or more, this leans towards the over.

RAPID FIRE

Stefon Diggs -0.5 receptions vs. A.J. Brown

Diggs has transitioned seamlessly to Buffalo and he’s averaging 6.5 catches per game in his first four games for the Bills. Brown was a rising star as a rookie last season but suffered a knee injury in Week 1 and is just set to make his return to the lineup. If Brown is at full strength, maybe this becomes a closer matchup but with him just coming back from injury, it’s easier to side with Diggs.

Jonnu Smith +4.5 receiving yards vs. John Brown

Both are nice complementary pieces to their teams’ respective offenses. Smith can get down the field better than most tight ends and when the Titans are churning out yards on the ground, it’s nice to have a tight end who can take advantage of easy play action. Brown is a quality threat coming off a 2019 season in which he recorded a career-high 1,060 receiving yards. He’s a little banged-up with a calf injury right now and that might swing the balance towards Smith.



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Sunday (10/11/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Week 5 of the NFL season is upon us and it brings a relatively full schedule for Sunday’s action which means lots of chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

This is the first official bye week on the schedule, so the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers are off this week. Oh, and various Covid-19 positive tests have moved Denver and New England to Monday evening and Buffalo at Tennessee to Tuesday night. These are choppy waters to navigate but the league is managing to keep just enough water out of the boat, for now.

So, aside from scheduling quirks, it is worth noting that offensive numbers are up this season. Overall, teams are gaining 5.7 yards per play, with 6.6 net yards per pass and 4.4 yards per carry. Last season, it was 5.5 yards per play with 6.3 yards per pass and 4.3 yards per carry. In 2019, 36.0% of drives ended with an offensive score. In 2020, it’s 42.0%.

The game is opening up and that means more crooked numbers.

Here are some Star Shootout angles to consider for Sunday’s NFL games on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES

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Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 307.5 PASSING YARDS

As great as Mahomes is, this is a huge number, one that he has surpassed once in four games this season. Mahomes is averaging 283.5 passing yards per game and takes on a Raiders squad that is allowing 250.3 passing yards per game. While the Raiders are allowing 7.3 net passing yards per attempt there is a reasonable chance that the Chiefs will have the lead and Mahomes won’t have to chuck it a lot in order to keep that lead.

Matt Ryan LESS THAN 299.5 PASSING YARDS

Another large number to cover. Although Matty Ice has passed for 311.5 yards per game this season, the Carolina Panthers have surrendered 227 passing yards per game and 6.1 net yards per attempt, both of which are better than average.

Deshaun Watson LESS THAN 297.5 PASSING YARDS

Does Houston’s coaching change from Bill O’Brien to Romeo Crennel make the passing game more prolific? Watson threw for a season-high 300 yards last week and goes up against a Jacksonville team that allows 8.0 net passing yards per attempt while surrendering 261 passing yards per game.

Teddy Bridgewater MORE THAN 294.5 PASSING YARDS

While Bridgewater is looking comfortable in the Panthers offense, the reason for this lofty total is largely because he’s facing an Atlanta defense that has been terrible defensively. Bridgewater is averaging 286.8 passing yards per game but has thrown for more than 295 just once in his first four starts with the Panthers. He is going against an Atlanta defense that has allowed 341.5 passing yards per game (second highest in the league) and 7.8 net yards per pass attempt (fifth-highest rate in the league).

Josh Jacobs LESS THAN 79.5 RUSHING YARDS

In the Raiders’ two wins this season, Jacobs is averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game. In their two losses, that average dips to 59.5 rushing yards per game. So, who is on the Raiders’ schedule this week? A road game (okay) at…Kansas City (gulp). That could be a tough one.

Terry McLaurin LESS THAN 78.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The Washington wide receiver has been on a tear, accruing 326 receiving yards in the past three games. Washington is shifting to quarterback Kyle Allen, which isn’t ideal, and they face a Rams Defense that is one of the best against the pass this season, allowing just 229.8 passing yards per game and 5.6 net passing yards per attempt. With a backup quarterback of questionable quality stepping into the lineup against that defense, it could be difficult for McLaurin to get loose.

RAPID FIRE

James Conner +7.5 rushing yards vs. James Robinson

Robinson, the undrafted rookie out of Illinois State, has been a wonderful find for the Jaguars and is averaging 71.3 rushing yards per game through the first four weeks. Conner is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games and his season average is 74.7 rushing yards per game, due to his atypical Week One performance (nine yards on six carries). Conner does face a Philadelphia Eagles Defense that should be better against the run than the Houston Texans Defense going against Robinson but not by enough to like Robinson by more than seven yards.

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES

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MORE OR LESS

Dak Prescott MORE THAN 319.5 PASSING YARDS

The question isn’t so much whether the Cowboys are capable of passing for at least 320 yards, because Prescott has thrown for at least 450 yards in three straight games, but it’s a matter of whether they will need throw that much. Facing the winless Giants, if the Cowboys get out to a comfortable lead that would reduce their need to throw. Expect him to throw under 450 this week, but 320-plus is still possible.

Jimmy Garoppolo MORE THAN 272.5 PASSING YARDS

Coming back from a high ankle sprain, Jimmy G threw for 248.6 yards per game last season and 259 yards in the season opener before getting hurt midway through Week 2. It’s not an easy under, though, because the 49ers are taking on a Miami Dolphins team that has allowed 285 passing yards per game and a league-high 8.2 net yards per pass attempt.

Ezekiel Elliott LESS THAN 91.5 RUSHING YARDS

It’s been a disappointing season so far for Zeke, averaging 68.3 rushing yards per game, and while the Giants aren’t good, they aren’t bad against the run, allowing 3.6 yards per carry.

 

RAPID FIRE

DeVante Parker +0.5 receptions vs. Odell Beckham

Parker, the Dolphins wideout, is averaging six catches per game, compared to four per game for Beckham, and both are facing top-tier pass defenses – Parker and the Dolphins go against the San Francisco 49ers (5.3 net yards per pass attempt) while Beckham and the Browns face the Indianapolis Colts (5.0 net yards per pass attempt).

George Kittle -0.5 receptions vs. Amari Cooper

Last week, Kittle caught all 15 passes sent in his direction and, this week, goes against a Dolphins Defense that has struggled against the pass. Cooper caught a dozen passes last week and is averaging 9.3 receptions per game this season but faces a Giants Defense that has been competent against the pass (221.5 passing yards per game, 6.3 net yards per pass attempt).



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Thursday (10/8/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Thursday night football brings a rematch between quarterbacks Nick Foles and Tom Brady, who last met on the field when Foles guided Philadelphia to a championship against New England in February of 2018.

The teams for the quarterbacks have changed. Brady has moved to Tampa Bay this season and has 1,122 passing yards and 11 touchdowns in his first four games with the Bucs.

After a stint in Jacksonville, Foles landed in Chicago this year and he still watched Mitch Trubisky win the Bears’ starting quarterback job out of training camp. Foles is getting his chance and struggled last week against Indianapolis in his first start of the season.

Both teams are 3-1 through the first four weeks of the season, so there is a lot on the line in this game.

Here are some angles to consider for the Thursday night NFL game on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

TAMPA BAY-CHICAGO

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Tom Brady LESS THAN 265.5 PASSING YARDS

Brady is averaging 280.5 passing yards per game with the Bucs, including 369 in Week 4 against the Chargers. He has lost tight end O.J. Howard and wide receiver Chris Godwin is out, so the Buccaneers aren’t fully loaded when it comes to the passing game. The Bears Defense has been effective, allowing 230.3 passing yards per game and 5.9 net yards per attempt. Even with a couple of safeties injured, it could be tough for Brady to air it out against Chicago’s defense.

Nick Foles MORE THAN 248.5 PASSING YARDS

In his first start of the season, last week against Indianapolis, Foles threw for 249 yards and he has passed for at least 249 yards in five of nine starts in the previous two seasons. He goes against a Bucs defense that is allowing 247.8 passing yards per game and 6.6 net passing yards per attempt, both of which put Tampa Bay in the middle of the pack when it comes to pass defense. It’s fair to figure that the underdog Bears may have more opportunities to pass in this game, so lean towards the over.

Allen Robinson MORE THAN 78.5 RECEIVING YARDS

After a slow start through the first couple of weeks, after which Robinson expressed his frustration, he has busted out in the past two games, catching 17 passes for 224 yards on 23 targets. He is the most reliable receiving option for Foles and should be able to stay productive against the Bucs.

 

RAPID FIRE

Allen Robinson -10.5 receiving yards vs. Mike Evans

Evans has run very hot and cold this season, going for more than 100 yards twice and finishing with exactly two yards twice. With Godwin out, Evans surely would be a big part of Tampa Bay’s passing attack. As noted above, Robinson has emerged in the past two weeks, getting the looks befitting a legitimate number one receiver.

Ronald Jones II -19.5 rushing yards vs. David Montgomery

While Jones has averaged 63.5 rushing yards per game, he ran for 111 yards last week when Leonard Fournette was out of the lineup and Fournette will be out again this week. The Bears defense is allowing 115 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry, which is better than average but still leaves some room for Jones to run. On the other hand, Montgomery has averaged 54.5 rushing yards per game this season but he takes that average to face a Bucs defense that is allowing just 2.7 yards per carry, the second-lowest average in the league.

Scott Miller -1.5 fantasy points vs. Anthony Miller

Tom Brady likes his undersized white slot receivers so it should come as no surprise that Scott Miller has put up 83 receiving yards in back-to-back games. Since a decent performance in Week 1, Anthony Miller has managed five catches for 57 yards on 11 targets in the past three weeks.



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CFB Expert Betting Picks for Week Six (10/10/2020)

A thrilling Week Five in college football brought down seven ranked opponents and served as a running board for potential Heisman campaigns for quarterbacks like Kyle Trask of Florida and Zach Wilson of BYU. Even with the familiar faces of Clemson, Alabama and Georgia occupying the top 3 slots of the rankings, college football has proven unpredictable in 2020 with a host of upsets and new teams ready to make their mark.

Week Five was successful for anyone who tailed the expert picks last week. SMU took a big halftime lead, and was luckily able to hold off a Memphis rally in the second half, Boston College gave the North Carolina Tar Heels a scare, Clemson and Virginia combined for a boatload of points, and Central Arkansas nearly handed North Dakota State its first loss since 2017 to give us a 4-0 day. The 4-0 record was much needed, and brings the season-long tally to 8-4.

Week six is here as we are nearing the mid-way point of this circuitous and unpredictable fall college football season. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

 

#2 Alabama at Ole Miss (+24)

O/U: 70.5

Alabama head coach Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have cruised in the early going with easy wins over Missouri and Texas A&M, both buoyed by quick starts out of the gate. Quarterback Mac Jones graduated last December with a perfect 4.0 GPA midway through only his 3rd year on campus, and is pursuing a master's degree in sports hospitality, with eyes towards a secondary master's degree in marketing down the road. On the field he has been similarly prolific, throwing for 684 yards, 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception in the two wins, and his trio of star receivers Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and John Metchie have been similarly spectacular. The explosive offense was on display last week with a 78-yard touchdown pass from Jones to Metchie on the opening drive, and later an 87-yard score from Jones to Waddle, which was Waddle's third 75+ yard touchdown reception as a member of the Alabama football team.

Under new head coach Lane Kiffin, the Ole Miss Rebels have jumped out to a 1-1 start, losing to Florida in the opener, but knocking off Kentucky in overtime last week. Expectations entering the year were low, and young sophomore quarterback Matt Corral has done his part to exceed expectations with 715 yards, 7 touchdowns and only 1 interception through two games. Corral has been targeting his go-to receiver Elijah Moore quite a bit (20 receptions on 24 targets), and has a talented young running back in Jerrion Ealy in tow. With the young exciting offense, things are on the upwards trajectory in Oxford. The defense, meanwhile, has holes that they will need to patch up fast if they hope to keep up with the Crimson Tide. Over their first two games, the Rebels have allowed 92 points and 1,201 total yards of offense. A repeat of that poor defensive performance could spell disaster against the high-flying Alabama offense this weekend.

Since his year first year at Alabama in 2007, Nick Saban has coached in 20 games against his former assistants, including Jimbo Fisher and Kirby Smart. Saban gets to face off against his former offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin for the first time as a head coach, and you should expect the game to go about as smoothly as the last 20 games that Saban has played against former assistants - all wins, only two of which were by single digits (2017 National Championship and 2018 SEC Championship, both over Georgia). In 2018, Alabama started the season 10-0 against the first half spread, and in 2019, the Crimson Tide were again positive going 8-4 in the regular season against the first half spread. With Saban's infamous fast starts and Ole Miss' middling young defense, expect this game to get ugly in a hurry.

Pick: Alabama 1st half -13.5

Florida State at #5 Notre Dame (-20.5)

O/U: 52

The unmitigated train wreck that is Florida State football under first-year coach Mike Norvell should have been at least partially expected. Norvell, who came to Tallahassee after a successful four year run with the Memphis Tigers, had a tumultuous offseason which included claims from players about miscommunication about social justice protests and the program's COVID-19 safety protocols. After having been called out by several players, including star defensive tackle Marvin Wilson, things started to settle down until the team dropped its season opener to Georgia Tech, who had gone 3-9 in 2019 and are in the years-long process of recruiting new players to adjust from an option-running offense to a pro style offense. That was followed up by an lifeless 42-point embarrassment against their "in-state rival" Miami. Even last week, the Seminoles were trailing Jacksonville State - an FCS foe - at halftime before pulling away to garner their first win of the year. Sensing the season spinning out of control, Norvell has moved on from longtime quarterback James Blackman to an expected combination of true freshman Tate Rodemaker and redshirt sophomore Jordan Travis. Across the depth chart, the team is littered with first and second year players, as the rebuilding process has taken front stage in yet another lost cause of a season in Florida's capital.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish had their first COVID-19 postponement when their September 26 game against Wake Forest was pushed back to December 12. With a two week lay-off, Coach Brian Kelly has had ample time to prepare for the 'Noles, and the team should be hungry to see the field again. The Irish are led by their senior signal caller Ian Book, an undersized "gamer" who has played a key part of their 2-0 start. One key advantage in this game for Notre Dame is experience - particularly up front. Notre Dame may have the nation's top offensive line, with four seniors and five legitimate NFL draft prospects starting up front and paving lanes for sophomore running back Kyren Williams, who is the only underclassman starting on offense. The talented defense, which pitched a 52-0 shutout of South Florida, is built similarly with talented safety Kyle Hamilton the only starting underclassman.

Only a few times each year does Notre Dame get to experience a home game under the lights, made possible by an NBC initiative in 2017 to improve Notre Dame Stadium's lighting. Defensive coordinator Clark Lea and his vaunted defense have held Notre Dame's opponents to under 30 points in 27-of-28 games in charge. Expect Lea's and Notre Dame's success to continue in an easy home win against a team still searching for its identity.

Pick: Notre Dame -20.5

Texas San-Antonio (UTSA) at #15 Brigham Young (BYU) (-35)

O/U: 63

The UTSA Roadrunners have charged to a 3-1 start to the Coach Jeff Traylor's first season, on the heels of talented sophomore running back Sincere McCormick, who leads the FBS with 527 yards on the ground. Close wins over Texas State and Middle Tennessee State were made possible by the team's underrated special teams play. Kicker Hunter Duplessis has converted his last 18 field goal attempts, marking the top current active streak in the country, and punter Lucas Dean ranks second in Conference-USA in average yards per punt. Since joining the FBS in 2011, UTSA has faced off against five ranked opponents and have covered the spread in four of those games. Unfortunately, quarterback Josh Adkins broke his collarbone on the first play from scrimmage against UAB, forcing UTSA to turn to its 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks. Luckily, however, junior quarterback Frank Harris, who started the team's first 3 games, is expected back after he missed the team's loss to UAB with a knee injury. Harris has taken the majority of first-team reps in practice this week, and will hope to re-spark the Roadrunnners offense. If Harris, a talented dual-threat quarterback who accounted for 8 touchdowns in two and a half games played, is playing at 100%, then UTSA should be able to find creative ways to keep the ball moving against a strong BYU defense.

BYU has been the most dominant team in 2020, with Coach Kelani Sitake's team beating Navy, Troy and Louisiana Tech by a combined 124 points. On offense, junior quarterback Zach Wilson has completed 85% (949 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception), and has added 5 scores on the ground in an effort that is sure to garner early Heisman voters' attention. Wilson's favorite target has been junior receiver Gunner Romney, a distant relative of Utah senator Mitt Romney, who has opened the 2020 campaign with three consecutive 100-yard games. As strong as the offense has been, the defense has matched it punch-for-punch. The Cougars' defense ranks first in the country allowing a mere 214 yards of offense per game, narrowly ahead of the Pitt Panthers, and fourth in the country allowing only 8 points per game. This defensive performance is unlikely to continue against more formidable offenses like the Roadrunners' but provides BYU with a high floor in their hopes of sneaking into the College Football Playoff.

Do not expect a close game - BYU clearly has UTSA overmatched and will coast to victory. However, passing up a spread this high would be inadvisable. UTSA has an exciting offense and should be able to get a few scores on the board to keep this game within the large spread. On the backs of Harris and McCormick, expect the Roadrunners to keep this game in check, before falling away late.

Pick: UTSA +35



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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Shriners Open

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Last weekend turned into a bit of a debacle with my selection of Sungjae Im, as I didn't realize I had already taken him earlier in the season at the Travelers Championship. I don't even have a good excuse for doing that with the event taking place after the restart, but I did catch a small break with Charley Hoffman's sixth-place finish being my alternate choice.

Unfortunately, not much changed at the top of the leaderboard for Josh and I after Joe earned a respectable $46,200 out of Doc Redman, and you can't help but feel as if this contest has been over for the last few weeks. However, with all that being said, you just never know. Josh has tried to sneak in Webb Simpson about four times throughout the year-long contest, and I have proven to be successful in terms of double-dipping in each of the past two seasons - (Brooks Koepka at the 2019 Tour Championship).  We will have to see if either one of us can pull off the bait-and-switch when it matters most.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - Shriners

Joe Nicely - Harris English

Alternate - Cameron Smith

The Shriners has morphed into one of the best events on the Swing Season schedule on an annual basis. This year it boasts its strongest-ever field as players prepare for the first leg of back-to-back tournaments in Las Vegas (the CJ Cup will be held at Shadow Creek next week).

Unfortunately for me, most of the elite options at the top of the board are no longer available to me in this marathon of an OAD contest. Guys like Bryson, Webb, Cantlay, and Morikawa are long gone for Team J-Nice. As a result, I’m going with a player who has been posting elite results, even though he doesn’t have quite the name recognition of some of the other stars in the field.

Harris English has been perhaps the most consistent golfer in the world this year. The Georgia Bulldog (Yuck! Go Vols!) made 18 of 20 cuts in the 2019-20 season with six top-10 finishes among those and he heads to Vegas on the heels of an impressive fourth-place showing in the U.S. Open. This week’s TPC Summerlin layout fits English’s precise, fairways-and-greens style perfectly and he logged a T4 on this layout back in 2017.

Yearly Earnings - $7,795,082

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/28

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Joaquin Niemann Jason Day

Alternate - Scottie Scheffler

I am in a position where I have to shoot for the moon and hope for the best with every selection. To me, that means upside golfers, and I feel as if my two best choices are Scottie Scheffler or Joaquin Niemann after already playing Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im (twice).

I realize we have a disparity in pricing for DFS and Vegas between these two, but I wouldn't look at that too closely when making your selection. Niemann is a golfer that should be 35-40/1 in this field, and I do think we are relatively close to what is proper on Scheffler. I have decided to save the American for somewhere else down the stretch and will try to grab him in a spot where he is back clicking on all cylinders after missing a few weeks with COVID.

Niemann is an intriguing choice for a few reasons. His ability to make birdies in bunches is rivaled by very few golfers in the world, and it shouldn't hurt his chances that Bentgrass has historically been the only surface he has been a positive expected putter per round. It will be important for the 47th-ranked player in the world to improve his par-five scoring output if he wants to compete for a title, but Niemann's long iron ability could quickly turn his scoring trajectory around if he can locate the fairway off the tee.

Yearly Earnings - $4,837,275

Yearly Cuts Made - 22/28

 

Josh Bennett - Rickie Fowler

Alternate - Matthew Wolff

Coming down to the wire here and I need a couple W’s to have a chance. I don’t have many big shots left, but I have a couple that can hopefully work some magic. Unfortunately, at the moment I’m not sure we can classify Rickie as a “big shot” based on his poor recent form (for a big shot’s standards, anyway), but he’s been re-tooling his swing a bit and has had some time off so I have a feeling his game could be in really good shape. Or, it could be in even worse shape. Either way, it’s a good play for me, he’s typically a world class player and in normal Rickie form he could top 5 this event with no problem (as he showed in 2018).

Good iron players and good putters are who I targeted this week in all other contests, and we know by know that Rickie is one of the best putters on tour and when he’s good it’s because of his irons and his putter. Needing a couple really good weeks in a row here, hopefully Rickie gets us started on the right foot.

Yearly Earnings - $4,275,189

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/28

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236
Corales Puntacana Will Zalatoris $117,000 Patrick Rodgers $93,000 Kristoffer Ventura $9,580
Sanderson Doc Redman $46,200 Charley Hoffman $201,300 Will Zalatoris $0

 

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PGA DFS Vegas Report - Shriners Open (Premium Content)


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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monday (10/5/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Don’t say Covid-19 never gave you anything good because at the very least you’re getting a Monday Night doubleheader in Week 4 of the National Football League. Twice as many games, twice as much fun and opportunities to win playing props on Monkey Knife Fight.

It’s not good news for the Patriots, who were already facing a daunting matchup in Kansas City but are now going without starting quarterback Cam Newton, who tested positive for Covid-19 last week. The defending-champion Chiefs have looked like a juggernaut early in the season so the Patriots could hardly afford to show up at less than their best but that is the way it looks going into the early Monday nightery.

The original Monday night game has the Atlanta Falcons going to Green Bay. The Falcons are reeling, unable to hold massive leads in back-to-back losses, leaving them at 0-3. Green Bay has started the season 3-0 and look even better than last year’s team that seemed a little lucky on their way to 13 wins. Here are some angles to consider for the Monday night schedule on Monkey Knife Fight.

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

NEW ENGLAND-KANSAS CITY

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Patrick Mahomes MORE THAN 299.5 PASSING YARDS

Watching Mahomes play it feels like he only gets held under 300 yards if he (or the Chiefs) feel like easing up once they have a big lead. Maybe they won’t race out to a big lead against New England, because the Patriots are good too, but New England is also allowing 7.4 net yards per pass attempt, the sixth-highest average in the league.

Brian Hoyer MORE THAN 230.5 PASSING YARDS

The Patriots will presumably have to throw quite a bit if they are going to keep pace with the Chiefs. Even is a slowed-down type of attack, Hoyer can’t just hand the ball off all night and hope that’s enough. In his career, Hoyer has had 32 games in which he played more than 90% of the offensive snaps, and threw for more than 230 yards in 23 of them.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire MORE THAN 76.5 RUSHING YARDS

The Patriots are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and Edwards-Helaire is averaging 4.4 yards per carry through the first three weeks so let’s compromise and say he can expect to gain about 4.5 yards per carry. Does he get 19 carries? Edwards-Helaire has had 25, 10, and 20 carries in the first three games so that’s a close call but I’ll lean towards yes.

RAPID FIRE

Travis Kelce +0.5 receiving yards vs. Tyreek Hill

Through three games this season, Kelce is averaging 75.7 receiving yards per game and Hill is averaging 74.0 receiving yards per game. They are both vital components in the Chiefs attack. Given the choice between them, Kelce does appear to be safer, with maybe not quite as much boom or bust potential as Hill.

Julian Edelman -0.5 receptions vs. Sammy Watkins

While Edelman is batting a knee injury, he is still going to be a fixture in the Patriots passing attack. He only had two catches last week but has been targeted 24 times in three games. Watkins is a big part of the Chiefs attack, too, with 15 catches on 20 targets in three weeks, but Kansas City has more options.

 

ATLANTA-GREEN BAY

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Matt Ryan LESS THAN 313.5 PASSING YARDS

Matty Ice has been averaging 320.3 passing yards per game and the Falcons will likely be losing, so there is little reason to believe he won’t be throwing a lot at Green Bay. That’s a big number to cover, though, considering his past two games are under 275 yards passing.

Aaron Rodgers MORE THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS

Rodgers has looked rejuvenated this season, averaging 295.7 passing yards per game, and faces a Falcons team that has been surrendering leads because they can’t defend the pass, allowing 350.3 passing yards per game. Can Rodgers go for 290-plus if Green Bay gets out to an early lead is the question.

Calvin Ridley MORE THAN 80.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Julio Jones is battling a hamstring injury, and Ridley has his own ankle injury that he’s dealing with, but he’s averaging 116.3 receiving yards per game this season, with 21 catches on 35 targets in three games. He’s a big part of the Falcons attack under any circumstances.

RAPID FIRE

Todd Gurley +25.5 rushing yards vs. Aaron Jones

While Jones is averaging 101 rushing yards per game, he’s been held to 70 or fewer yards in two of those three games. If he is held to less than 70 yards that would mean Gurley would have to come in under 44 yards at the most and while Gurley might be mostly washed, he can produce more than that.

Russell Gage +0.5 receptions vs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Six times in his career, MVS has recorded at least four receptions. That’s not a huge number to begin with and it might not be enough to outduel Gage, who had 15 catches in the first two games before having to leave Week 3 early due to a concussion. Gage is good to go on Monday night and the Falcons will be throwing the ball.



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Sunday (10/4/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Week 4 of the NFL season is upon is and some trends are starting to show early in the season.

You can take advantage of those trends, play props, and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

Early in this season, the passing yardage is a bit higher than in previous seasons, with teams averaging more than 247 passing yards per game in 2020 compared to 235 yards per game in 2019.

This is continuing a trend towards more passing but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Some of these passing yardage props can look awfully high when viewed through a historical lens but, if teams are consistently passing more than they have in the past, those numbers might be more achievable.

It’s also a bit of a strange week – it wouldn’t be 2020 without something unusual happening – and suddenly the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers are on a bye after the Titans had a Covid-19 outbreak. No one ever said managing a pro sports league through a pandemic would be easy.

Here are some angles to consider for the Sunday NFL schedule on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Dak Prescott LESS THAN 320.5 PASSING YARDS

The Cowboys quarterback hasn’t been shy to air it out, throwing for 922 yards in the past two weeks. He goes against a Browns team that has allowed 253.7 passing yards per game and 5.8 net passing yards per attempt through the first three games. That’s decent enough pass defense to keep Prescott from going over what is a large number to cover.

Russell Wilson MORE THAN 295.5 PASSING YARDS

It’s been an incredible start to the season for Seattle’s star quarterback, as he has thrown 14 touchdown passes and is averaging 308.3 passing yards per contest. The Seahawks travel to Miami where the Dolphins have allowed 265.7 passing yards per game and only three teams have allowed a higher net yards per pass attempt that the Dolphins are 7.7 yards per attempt (and one of those teams is Seattle!).

Drew Brees LESS THAN 285.5 PASSING YARDS

After passing for just 160 yards in Week One, the veteran Saints quarterback has recovered, throwing for 600 yards in the past two weeks. He’s still going to be without top wide receiver Michael Thomas and tight end Jared Cook, so Brees may have to get creative in the passing game against a Detroit team with decent numbers against the pass, including 237 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt.

Teddy Bridgewater LESS THAN 270.5 PASSING YARDS

While Bridgewater has averaged 290.3 passing yards per game, that has been boosted by throwing for 367 yards at Tampa Bay in Week 2. This week, he faces an Arizona team that is allowing 224.7 passing yards per game and 6.2 net passing yards per attempt, both better-than-average defensive numbers.

RAPID FIRE

Kenyan Drake +4.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott

After running for just 34 yards against Seattle last week, Zeke is due to bounce back, though he is going up against a Browns Defense that is allowing 3.7 yards per carry. Drake has been a steady contributor for the Cardinals and gets a shot at a Carolina defense that is surrendering 4.9 yards per carry. That defensive difference makes Drake a lively underdog in this week’s matchup.

Keenan Allen +0.5 receptions vs. Alvin Kamara

Coming off a week in which he was targeted 19 times, catching 13 passes, against Carolina, Allen is the focal point of the Chargers passing game. Kamara was targeted 14 times last week against Green Bay, catching 13, as the Saints like to get him in open space but he also has the option of carrying the ball so Allen should be an intriguing underdog in this matchup.

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Patrick Mahomes MORE THAN 292.5 PASSING YARDS

Watching Mahomes play it feels like he only gets held under 300 yards if he (or the Chiefs) feel like easing up once they have a big lead. Maybe they won’t race out to a big lead against New England, because the Patriots are good too, but New England is also allowing 7.4 net yards per pass attempt, the sixth-highest average in the league.

Josh Allen MORE THAN 279.5 PASSING YARDS

The Bills quarterback has passed for at least 310 yards in each of his three games thus far. Are the Raiders the team to suddenly keep him in check? It doesn’t really look like it. The Raiders have allowed 242.3 passing yards per game, which is a little better than average but at a clip of 7.1 net yards per pass attempt which is higher than average. Those mixed results look like a mediocre defense and it should take better than mediocre to slow down Allen.

Josh Jacobs MORE THAN 80.5 RUSHING YARDS

The Raiders running back is averaging 84 rushing yards per game this season, 87.6 per game for his career, and faces a Bills team that has allowed just 106 rushing yards per game, the seventh-fewest in the league, but 4.6 yards per carry which is slightly worse than average.

RAPID FIRE

Travis Kelce -0.5 receiving yards vs. Tyreek Hill

Through three games this season, Kelce is averaging 75.7 receiving yards per game and Hill is averaging 74.0 receiving yards per game. They are both vital components in the Chiefs attack. Given the choice between them, Kelce does appear to be safer, not quite as much boom or bust potential as Hill.

Cooper Kupp +0.5 receptions vs. Stefon Diggs

Both receivers are crucial to their respective teams’ offenses. Kupp started slowly in  Week One but has been building up in the past two weeks, catching nine passes on 10 targets against Buffalo in Week 3. Diggs was a major factor for the Bills in the first two weeks before he was held to four catches on six targets in a tough matchup against the Rams last week. Kupp gets the Giants this week while Diggs faces the Raiders so both receivers ought to have an opportunity to be productive. Getting the extra half reception for Kupp as the underdog is worthwhile.

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CFB Expert Betting Picks for Week Five (10/3/2020)

Week Four of the fall college football season was a thriller. Texas managed to overcome a double-digit deficit in the final minutes to stave off Texas Tech's upset bid, whereas fellow Big 12 titan Oklahoma was shocked at home against Kansas State.

Week Four was an unfortunate bump in the road for the record, with a 1-2 performance. Kansas State's monumental second half comeback to knock off Oklahoma easily surpassed the over. However, Auburn came to play as they easily dispatched of Kentucky, and Liberty narrowly knocked down Florida International, but failed to cover the 7-point spread. On the season, the picks have been 4-4, with Week Five presenting an opportunity to get back in the green.

In week five, a wide array of competitive conference games awaits us. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another Saturday of college football.

 

#25 Memphis at Southern Methodist (+2)

O/U: 74

The Memphis Tigers enter this week at 1-0, having beaten Arkansas State in their season opener, only to not play for 28 days. New coach Ryan Silverfield inherited a strong returning cast of players from Mike Norvell's 2019 squad, and the offense is the key. Quarterback Brady White and his top receiver Damonte Coxie are among the most feared pass-catching duo in the nation and will be trying to take the top off of the SMU defense all day. While the Memphis defense leaves plenty to be desired, this offense is one of the best in the country and will challenge American Athletic Conference (AAC) defenses all season long.

Senior quarterback Shane Buechele has had a strong start to the season, with 852 passing yards and 7 touchdowns. The Mustangs are 3-0 entering conference play, with this game having been circled months ago as their top target. While SMU's offense is the strength of the team, their special teams have created some spark plays including a blocked punt last week for a safety. On the ground, Ulysses Bentley is averaging 126.7 yards per game, and 10.6 yards per carry. Wide receiver Reggie Roberson on the outside has stepped in nicely to fill the absence of top receiver James Proche, a current Baltimore Raven, from a year ago.

In the 2019 edition of this top tier AAC showdown, Memphis held off SMU at home in front of a College GameDay crowd in a 54-48 game. In that game, all-around playmaker Antonio Gibson had an astounding 386 all-purpose yards. Gibson is now with the Washington Football Team, and Memphis after a long lay-off also will be without his backup last season in running back Kenneth Gainwell. The offensive play in this game should be prolific and this should be a must-watch for anyone who likes a flurry of points and big plays.

Pick: SMU +3

 

#11 North Carolina at Boston College (+14)

O/U: 54

When Coach Mack Brown decided to return to UNC as a 67-year old first-year head coach in 2019, skeptics were aplenty. A season later with a bowl win under his belt and a superstar sophomore quarterback in Sam Howell leading the team, expectations are sky-high for the Tar Heels. After their September 12 win over Syracuse, the team's second game was cancelled due to a COVID-19 outbreak decimating a full position group for their anticipated opponent - the Charlotte 49ers. After a 3-week layoff, Coach Brown's team heads north for its first road game of the year. Brown will hope that the aerial attack of Howell, and his talented trio of receivers Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome and Beau Corrales can score in bunches to offset an uneven defense which has 6 underclassmen starting.

Boston College survived a strong upset bid from Texas State to win on a last-second 36-yard field goal by Aaron Boumerhi, a former Temple graduate transfer, last week. The Eagles have jumped to a quick 2-0 start behind very strong defensive play, a solid rushing attack, and a steady hand at quarterback in Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec. In the team's season-opening beatdown of Duke, the balanced offensive attack gave Coach Jeff Hafley an easy first win at the helm. While game two was much more difficult, the fourth quarter comeback led by Jurkovec and tight end Hunter Long showed the offensive potential this team can have when running on all cylinders.

Reviving Tar Heels football will not happen overnight, and Coach Brown's job of taking them to a 7-6 record in 2019 was impressive in its own right. The high expectations that national and local media are putting on this team seem a bit unfair, aggressive and undeserved. The Tar Heels very well could contend for the ACC next season when Clemson has to replace Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, but for the time being they appear to be a second or third tier team not yet worthy of ACC Championship discussion.

Pick: Boston College +14

 

Virginia at #1 Clemson (-28)

O/U: 55

When Virginia won the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Coastal Division, it marked the seventh time in seven seasons that a different team won the division. After watching Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina Pitt, Miami and hated rival Virginia Tech get their coastal trophies, the "Hoos" and Coach Bronco Mendenhall finally joined the group. The 2019 offense was paced by Bryce Perkins, a do-it-all quarterback who is irreplaceable. This year, lefty Brennan Armstrong is trying to replicate Perkins' success with a similar dual-threat style, which he put to good use in a convincing 38-20 win to kick off the season over Duke. The defense took advantage of the Blue Devils to the tune of 5 interceptions, with hopes of putting a little bit of fear into Trevor Lawrence this weekend.

Coach Dabo Swinney's run of excellence with the Clemson Tigers is downright marvelous. Clemson has appeared in each of the last five national championship games and is a favorite to make an appearance once again in 2020. Through two games, the Tigers offense has started fast and eased up after having significant leads over Wake Forest and The Citadel. Lawrence and star running back Travis Etienne have largely taken a back seat, playing in the first halves and sitting the majority of the second halves this season. Virginia brings a unique opponent that will challenge the Tigers from the start. If Virginia can keep the Clemson starters on the field, Clemson might be able to reach the total for this game on their own - as they did in the teams' last matchup.

The last time these teams met, the 2019 ACC Championship game, the outcome of the game was decided well before the 62-17 final score flashed on the scoreboard. Virginia was just happy to be there, while Clemson was chasing yet another national title game appearance.

Pick: Over 55

 

Bonus Game: Central Arkansas at North Dakota State (-23)

The Football Championship Subdivision pushed its season to the spring, while many conferences allowed its teams to pursue additional nonconference games in the fall. Central Arkansas took this as an opportunity to fill up a full fall and spring season, and to pocket some additional funds from FBS teams to help its athletic department. In this game, the Bears, who are 2-1 face off against the defending champion Bison. For the Bears, keep an eye on quarterback Breylin Smith and his talented receivers Tyler Hudson and Lujuan Winningham. For the Bison, much of the fanfare around potential NFL first-round quarterback Trey Lance is justified, having gone for 28 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first season as a starter in 2019. While the Bison will be rightly favored in this game, many teams have experienced bumps in the road when facing off against teams with games under their belt. Having the advantage of already suiting up for a few games this year, expect the Bears to come out firing and hungry at the FargoDome.

Pick: Central Arkansas +23



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Thursday (10/1/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

It has been popular to complain about the quality of Thursday night matchups in the NFL and sometimes those complaints are overblown but maybe not this week as the winless Denver Broncos visit the winless New York Jets.

No matter how bad the teams are, they still offer opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Broncos are 0-3 but were competitive in two of them before a 28-10 loss to Tampa Bay last week. Denver is also turning to Brett Rypien at quarterback. Is it a good sign when a team is on their third starting quarterback of the season in Week 4?

At full strength, the Jets offense is still subpar but they are missing running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Breshad Perriman. Wide receiver Jamison Crowder has also been out but is questionable for Thursday night. If he plays, Crowder should be a factor because he’s a rare proven commodity for quarterback Sam Darnold.

It doesn’t sound like the sexiest NFL matchup because it isn’t, so get some money down on props and make this one a little more exciting.

Here are some angles to consider for the Thursday night Broncos-Jets matchup on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

DENVER-N.Y. JETS

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Sam Darnold LESS THAN 226.5 PASSING YARDS

The Broncos have surrendered 277.7 passing yards per game through the first three weeks, the fourth-highest total in the league, but they are allowing 6.6 net yards per pass attempt, which is around league average. So they maybe vulnerable defensively, but maybe not quite as bad as the raw passing yardage suggests. Nevertheless, Darnold has thrown for just 187.3 yards per game this season and averaged 232.6 passing yards per game last season. This is a mixed bag, really, but it’s hard to put much faith in the Jets passing game.

Brett Rypien LESS THAN 204.5 PASSING YARDS

Rypien, the 24-year-old nephew of former Washington quarterback Mark Rypien, had a productive career as a four-year starter at Boise St., where he did throw for more than 270 yards per game. The Jets Defense is probably better than the Mountain West defenses that Rypien faced and they have allowed 239 passing yards per game this season, with 6.9 yards per pass attempt. It might seem negative to be expecting less than from both quarterbacks, with entirely reasonable totals, but this does not project to be an offensive showcase.

RAPID FIRE

Jerry Jeudy +0.5 receptions vs. Noah Fant

Both have emerged as favorite targets for Broncos quarterbacks this season. Jeudy, the 15th pick in this year’s draft, has 13 catches on 24 targets and has shown some elusiveness after the catch. Fant, a first-round pick in 2019, has 14 catches on 21 targets, which is close enough to prefer Jeudy in this matchup.

Frank Gore +14.5 rushing yards vs. Melvin Gordon

Gordon has averaged 58 rushing yards per game through the first three weeks, with 14 carries per game, a respectable 4.1 yards per carry. He should get more carries against the Jets, a team allowing 4.3 yards per carry. Gore has run for 48 yards per game on 14 carries per game, just 3.4 yards per attempt. The Broncos Defense is allowing 3.8 yards per carry. So, there is a clear edge for Gordon but if the game is close and the usage is close, it might be difficult for Gordon to exceed Gore’s total by 15 yards.

A couple of wildcards when it comes to usage for these veteran running backs. Phillip Lindsay is still battling turf toe, and may remain out of the lineup but, if he plays, he’ll take touches away from Gordon. For the Jets, rookie La’Miical Perine has 41 yards on 10 carries in the past two weeks as he starts to get involved in the offense, but he has also been limited in practice this week, so maybe Gore will still get the full starter’s workload.

Noah Fant -1.5 fantasy points vs. K.J. Hamler

Hamler is a promising rookie wide receiver who has six catches for 78 yards on 12 targets in the past two weeks (after missing Week One) and, at some point this season, will likely be a more dangerous threat than Fant but, right now, Fant leads Broncos receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Sanderson Farms Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Last week's Corales Puntacana was definitely the weakest field we've seen in months, but we managed to put together some solid choices. I went with the young gun, Will Zalatoris, and he overcame a sluggish start to grab a share of eighth place for $117k. Spencer wasn't far behind, with his selection, Patrick Rodgers, posting a solid T11 that added $97k to Spencer's second-place total. Josh didn't have as much luck unfortunately, as Kristoffer Ventura was only able to bring in $9,580 for Team Jish.

This week's Sanderson Farms Championship has settled in as a "Swing Season" staple over the last decade. While the field isn't elite, it is certainly a huge upgrade over last week's available selections at Corales. Let's see who everyone is rolling with this week in Jackson!

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - Sanderson Farms Championship

Joe Nicely - Doc Redman

Alternate - Zach Johnson

We all know that these "Swing Season" events can be slim pickens when it comes to field strength. However, this week's Sanderson Farms Championships presents us with a handful of really strong options at the top of the board. Unfortunately for me, I've already used them in this contest, with names like Scheffler, Im, Burns, and even Zalatoris off the board for me.

In the absence of being able to choose one of this week's "elite" options, I'm rolling with one of the most explosive players that will be teeing it up in Jackson this week. Doc Redman brings a little volatility into play - he's missed three of 10 cuts since the restart - but I'm excited about the potential upside. Doc has posted T3 finishes in two of his last three starts and was last seen dropping a blistering final-round 62 at the Safeway Open earlier this month.

It's easy to forget that Redman is just 22-years-old...and with youth comes some inconsistency. However, it feels like a win is coming sooner rather than later for this young man and perhaps it will happen on this Country Club of Jackson layout that is annually a shootout.

Yearly Earnings - $7,748,882

Yearly Cuts Made - 23/27

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Sungjae Im

Alternate - Charley Hoffman

I'd normally go with something a little more contrarian than Sungjae Im for the position I am currently in entering the week, but part of the skill in these contests is understanding who your opponents have left. A larger OAD might dictate going down an abnormal route, but I will take my guarantee of being the only member of this group that has Sungjae Im at his disposal.

Look, I'd feel a lot better if I could grab the South Korean in a situation where he was playing steadier golf entering the event, but I need upside at this stage and will live with whatever Im provides from a production standpoint.

The 22-year-old has gained a combined 10.2 strokes with his irons in his previous two events, giving me hope that his game might finally be turning around after a cold restart. It shouldn't hurt matters that Im has done most of his damage on Bermuda greens in the past, and I am willing to swing blindly for the sake of this contest. If you are in a similar position for your OAD, I would assume you will most likely need to go down a different route. Look at how many times a golfer has been used by the field and try to make the most educated guess you can for how aggressive you will need to get to mount a comeback.

Yearly Earnings - $4,635,975

Yearly Cuts Made - 21/27

 

Josh Bennett - Will Zalatoris

Alternate - Doc Redman

It seems as though this Will Zalatoris guy is pretty good at golf. Time will tell if he will be consistently good on the PGA Tour or if this is just a crazy good hot streak, but either way I’m going to hop on the bandwagon and hope he keeps it going for one more week. He’s been playing solid golf all-around, so in a field of players that are “specialty” guys, it’s a good time to take a chance on a guy that seems to do just about everything well. He should continue to be motivated as well since continued good play will give him that many more chances to get into PGA fields. Unlike a lot of my other ramblings through stats and reasons in past write-ups, I’m just keeping it simple for this week and rolling with a guy that’s just playing really good all-around golf.

Yearly Earnings - $4,275,189

Yearly Cuts Made - 23/27

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236
Corales Puntacana Will Zalatoris $117,000 Patrick Rodgers $93,000 Kristoffer Ventura $9,580

 

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PGA Betting Advice - Sanderson Farms

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (74-39-8), netting over 42 units of profit and nearly a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection 

Hudson Swafford -110 over Rory Sabbatini

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Most people are taking Hudson Swafford's victory at Corales Puntacana to be an aberrational result, but I am not. Swafford was included in last week's premium top-20 recommendations during my Vegas Report article, and the alumni out of the University of Georgia continues to be an underrated commodity this weekend in Jackson, Mississippi. Rory Sabbatini is getting a little too much credit for his two top-60 finishes here in his last two attempts, and the five consecutive showings outside the top-59 are starting to present a poor case for the 107th-ranked player in the world.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

This is a much bigger recommendation than I typically suggest for this article and only is being included here because of the selection I have on tap in my Vegas Report. For all intents and purposes, this wager qualifies as a premium head-to-head bet. If we are looking for any negatives, Swafford isn't exactly a beacon of consistency, but I am willing to overlook those flaws because of Sabbatini's statistical atrocity as of late. I'd have priced this correctly at -140, meaning we are gaining around a six percent edge in terms of implied probability.

1.25 Units to Win 1.14

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (14-12-3)

0.82 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
PGA Championship Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Wyndham Championship Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Northern Trust Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35
Safeway Open Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 T14 (-15) T29 (-13) Win 1.32
U.S. Open Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 T23 (+10) MC (+14) Win 1.17
Corales Puntacana Denny McCarthy -120 over Henrik Stenson 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T41 (-6) T21 (-9) Win -1.2

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

24-22-0 (+4.74 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74
Tour Championship Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T18 (-5) T27 (+1) Win 0.7
Tour Championship Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl 0.85 Units to win 1.20 T24 (E) 30 (+4) Win 1.2
Tour Championship Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson 0.65 Units to win 1.11 T12 (-9) 1 (-21) Loss -0.65
Tour Championship Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson 0.45 Units to win 1.22 T2 (-18) 1 (-21) Loss -0.45
Corales Puntacana Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners 0.7 Units to win 0.70 T28 (-8) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Corales Puntacana Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder 0.70 Units to win 0.77 T33 (-7) T52 (-5) Win 0.77
Corales Puntacana Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III 0.70 Units to win 0.70 5 (-14) MC (E) Win 0.7

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open 33 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Justin Thomas Tour Championship 6 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Webb Simpson U.S. Open 50 8
Luke List Corales Puntacana 66 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monday (9/28/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

An epic Monday night matchup finishes up Week 3 in the NFL and it provides plenty of opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Baltimore Ravens host the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs have mostly looked good early in the 2020 campaign, earning a comfortable win against Houston in Week One then rallying to knock off the Los Angeles Chargers in overtime in Week Two. They have such an explosive attack, as they showed in last year’s playoffs, that they can’t be counted out no matter how far behind on the scoreboard.

While the Baltimore Ravens may not seem as explosive, they have also put up 71 points in two comfortable wins to start the season. The Chiefs may be the defending champs but, coming into the 2020 season, the Ravens are as much a Super Bowl contender as any team.

Here are some angles to consider for the NFL Monday night matchup on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

KANSAS CITY-BALTIMORE

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 295.5 PASSING YARDS

Mahomes is obviously great but this is a big number to cover. In his past 11 games, including the playoffs last season, he has thrown for more than 295 yards just three times. Going against a Ravens Defense that has allowed 210.5 passing yards per game through the first two weeks, it’s tough to just count on Mahomes for nearly 300 yards passing. He could get there but it sure seems more likely that he comes in under.

Lamar Jackson LESS THAN 249.5 PASSING YARDS

Jackson is obviously great and even if this isn’t a big number, it’s pretty big for a typical Jackson performance. In his past 15 games, including playoffs, he has thrown for 250 or more yards twice. Twice. The Chiefs Defense may be a tad vulnerable, allowing 269 passing yards per game but it’s not like Jackson has the premier receiving corps to start airing it out.

Travis Kelce LESS THAN 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS

This number is right in line with Kelce’s recent production. He has 140 receiving yards through the first two games of this season and averaged 69 receiving yards per game last season. But the Ravens pass defense is surely better than average, allowing just 5.2 net yards per attempt (second-best in the league), so it would seem to follow that Kelce should be leaning towards less than his average yardage.

Mark Andrews LESS THAN 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS

As much as Andrews can be a preferred target for Jackson, especially in the red zone, he’s not a high-volume receiver and has gone for more than 60 yards twice in his past 12 games. Kansas City may be a little more vulnerable to a passing attack but they also held Andrews to three catches for 15 yards in Week 3 last season so let’s stay pessimistic, friends.

RAPID FIRE

Travis Kelce -1.5 receptions vs. Tyreek Hill

It’s certainly possible that Hill could have a bigger impact as a downfield threat but he’s not as reliable as Kelce in the passing game. In the first two weeks of the season, Kelce has 15 receptions on 20 targets, averaging 7.5 receptions per game. Hill has 10 catches on 17 targets, averaging 5.0 receptions per game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire -11.5 rushing yards vs. Mark Ingram

Ingram is something of a commodity with a diminishing value at the moment. He averaged 67.9 rushing yards per game last season but is sitting at just 42 rushing yards per game after the first two games this season. Edwards-Helaire, the Kansas City rookie, rushed for 138 yards in Week One, but just 38 yards in Week Two, as the Chiefs used him more as a receiver than they had the previous week. Given their respective roles right now, though, Edwards-Helaire would seem to have the higher ceiling.

Tyreek Hill -1.5 fantasy points vs. Mark Andrews

While Andrews might be slightly more likely to score a touchdown, he is not targeted as often, nor does he accumulate catches at the same rate as Hill so side with the Chiefs wide receiver in this matchup.

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Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Week 3

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Drew's article is available for free to all readers as a special this week. 

Welcome back, RB fam.  The Remember the Titans theme treated us well last week with a 10-2 betting day.  This included a "W" on the first official big play of the season and a massive ML parlay "W" on the "Chef's Yolo Parlay."  This means we might have to cycle back to Remember the Titans at some point, but for now, we turn to the movie Friday Night Lights.  Do not worry, the TV show is coming at some point this season.

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing.

 

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information than usual since it is week 1.  Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units.  If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes.  For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor.  For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

  • NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
  • Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following:  22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
  • Mr. Garage Guy would be the following:  22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
  • Mr. Danny Boi would be the following:  22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

So, let's discuss the trend.  Everyone finished in the green.  However, Mr. Danny Boi being up 22.5U means something much more financially positive than Mr. Uncle Leo. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

 

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Week 3 Betting Card

Here, I will post my Week 3 picks.  Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial.  Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+7.25u) 12-9 Total [1-0 on 4&5U plays]

  • 0-1.5U Risk Record:  6-8
  • 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record:  5-1
  • 4-5U Risk Record:  1-0

Releasing this post earlier this week because of a Thursday night official play.

  • Dolphins +3.5 vs Jaguars - Risk 2.6U to win 2U - Like many, I have been impressed thus far from what I have seen from Minshew and the Jags.  They were incredibly close to beating the Titans and moving to 2-0 on the season.  With that being said, I do have this game closer to Pick instead of -3, and actually think the Dolphins have a better roster.  Ultimately, the majority of betting this game will come down to each individual's stance on the two-game sample size.  Are the Jags playing over their head, or are they much better than most expected before the 2020 season started?  My stance is both, but much more the former as I indicated earlier having this line closer to Pick'em.  The Dolphins being 0-2 carries little to no value to me here, and if you asked me two weeks ago if I could get +3 with the Dolphins, I would gladly take it.  The crappy part is that I'm a lowkey Jags fan because of Mr. Minshew and James O'Shaunessy (one of my favorite all-time guests on GG - interview here).  I rarely recommend this, but I'm actually buying a half-point.  Many will tell you to never but points because mathematically and financially it is not ideal, but I occasionally do it in the NFL.
  • Eagles ML vs Bengals - Risk 1.9U to win 1U - PUSH
  • Bills ML vs Rams - Risk 2.4U to win 2U - WIN
  • Titans -2 vs Vikings - Risk 1.65U to win 1.5U - LOSS
  • 49ers -3 vs Giants - Risk 1.2U to win 1U - WIN
  • Falcons -2.5 vs Bears - Risk 1.2U to win 1U - LOSS
  • Panthers +7 vs Chargers - Risk 1.2U to win 1U - WIN
  • Steelers -4 vs Texans - Risk 1.1U to win 1U - WIN
  • Bucs/Steelers ML Parlay - Risk 1.75U to win 2U - WIN
  • Bucs/Seahawks ML Parlay - Risk 1U to win 1.2U - WIN
  • Eagles/Seahawks ML Parlay - Risk 1U to win 1.4U - Partial Win (Seahawks ML paid out)
  • Lions/Cardinals Under 56 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U - WIN
  • Sunday Night - Packers +4 vs Saints - Risk 1.9U to win 1.5U
  • Teaser 7 point - Packers/Chiefs - Risk 1.3u to win 1U

 

Chef's Yolo Parlay: Bucs, Seahawks, Steelers, Eagles ML Parlay - Risk 0.6U to win 2U

 



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CFB Expert Betting Picks for Week Four (9/26/2020)

Week Four of the 2020 fall college football season is upon us. In recent days, both the Mountain West and Mid-American Conferences have publicly pondered a return to collegiate sports this fall, following the lead of the Big Ten who announced its return about a week ago. The prospect of a Tuesday night MAC-tion game in Ypsilanti between Ball State and Eastern Michigan should excite even the most casual college football fan.

In week two, our record was 1-1, due to the unfortunate cancellation of the Baylor-Houston game, a game we almost certainly would have won. Baylor has now had three games cancelled, and Houston has had a stunning five games cancelled because of COVID-19 related reasons. On a positive note, the Pitt offense played just as tepidly as we hoped to allow the Syracuse Orange to cover a large spread, whereas Wake Forest's defense was unable to slow down the North Carolina State Wolfpack on our way to our only narrow defeat last week.

In week four, we will take a look at some high-flying offenses and our first peek at the SEC, who returns to play this week. Here are a few betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another Saturday of college football.

 

Kansas State at #3 Oklahoma (-28)

O/U: 61

One of the most thrilling college football games of 2019 was Kansas State's stunning 48-41 upset over Oklahoma. The Wildcats return quarterback Skylar Thompson, who has made 28 career starts. Coach Chris Klieman, who came to Kansas State in 2019 after a dominant run in charge of FCS-powerhouse North Dakota State, had a promising 8-5 2019 campaign. The Wildcats must replace their top rusher and receiver from a year ago, but proved in the season-opening loss to Arkansas State that the offense should continue to thrive. The defense, which gave up 35 to Arkansas State, is another story. Replacing three of four starting defensive linemen created a gash along the line that the team is still trying to adjust to on the fly. An interesting fact - Kansas State allowed its opponents to score on 97.06% of their trips to the red zone, ranking dead last in the nation.

Lincoln Riley is one of the finest offensive minds in college football, and he seemingly has another star quarterback on his hands in redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler. Rattler and the Sooners' offense was dominant against Missouri State in the opener, displaying a proficient ground and air attack. Under Coach Riley's command, Oklahoma only scored under 30 points in one game last season, and star receivers Charleston Rambo and Theo Howard provide Rattler targets that will allow him to strive for that once more. As is the case with many Big 12 teams, the defense has some holes. Star linebacker Kenneth Murray became an NFL first round pick, and while the team did allow Missouri State to a mere 135 yards, you have to consider that the Missouri State Bears are a rebuilding team with Bobby Petrino in his first season as coach.

With two middle-of-the-road defenses, and two prolific quarterbacks, a repeat of last season's shootout is certainly possible. Oklahoma eased up, holding the ball for over 10 minutes in the final 3 quarters, and still managed a 48-0 win. If both offenses are sharp, expect points to fill up the board in a classic Big 12 matchup.

Pick: Over 61

 

#23 Kentucky at #8 Auburn (-7.5)

O/U: 49.5

Kentucky is certainly a blue-blood basketball school, but head coach Mark Stoops is doing a great job of dispelling that one-sport perception. Stoops has taken the Wildcats to four straight bowls and is 18-8 in his last two seasons, while playing in the gauntlet that is the SEC. In recent year's, Kentucky has built its strength on a strong pass rush on defense, with a solid rushing attack on offense. This season is no different, with stud edge rushers Josh Paschal and Jamar Watson hoping to make the same leap that linebacker Josh Allen made a few seasons ago before becoming a top 10 draft pick in the NFL draft. In 2019, the defense ranked 14th in the country in scoring defense, and returns 7 starters. On offense, the Lynn Bowden experience came to an end when he graduated and became a third round pick in the NFL draft. Bowden was arguably the team's best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver at stretches of last season and will be impossible to replace. 2018 starting quarterback Terry Wilson returns from a devastating knee injury last season, and has a strong stable of running backs at his disposal - Asim Rose, Kavosiey Smoke, and Christopher Rodriguez - that will find plenty of holes behind a top-flight offensive line with four experienced starters back. 

Auburn broke in a true freshman quarterback last season and managed a 9-4 record which included stunning wins over Oregon and Alabama, and losses to four ranked opponents. Sophomore Bo Nix should be more consistent than he was last season, but the engines that led this team were the defense and running back JarTarvious Whitlow. Whitlow is now at Western Illinois, while the defense lost 7 starters, including dominant defensive linemen Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson. Sophomore running back DJ Williams will hope to replace Whitlow's output, but the defense will be much more difficult to patch together without having had the benefit of a spring practice. There is still plenty of firepower for Coach Guz Malzahn's defense - such as junior cornerback Roger McCreary and senior edge rusher Big Kat Bryant - but retooling the defense and replacing all five offensive line starters is a tall task.

A season ago, the Auburn Tigers had mild expectations with a true freshman quarterback, and rode their defense to a strong campaign. This year, if the pieces on defense meld together and Malzahn can find five linemen to keep Nix standing up, they have a chance to repeat that. This feels like too many things need to fall into place for success, and Kentucky should have plenty of success on the ground on Saturday.

Pick: Kentucky +7.5

 

Florida International at Liberty (-7)

O/U: 59

Coach Butch Davis, who is the last head coach to take the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs, enters his fourth season at FIU having had plenty of success and sporting a 23-16 record. The 2019 Panthers had two players taken in the NFL draft, including quarterback James Morgan, arguably the best quarterback in program history. On the first depth chart of the season, FIU has 3 co-starters listed at quarterback. As the saying goes, "if you have a ton of quarterbacks, you really have none." The offense returns only 3 starters, while the defense must replace 5. FIU has not won a season opener under Davis, and failed to win a road game last season (the Panthers' upset of Miami last season was technically a home game, despite the schools being a mere 10 miles apart). Outside linebacker Rocky Jacques-Louis is a player to keep an eye on for his pass rushing ability, and his A-grade name.

Liberty had an impressive 8-5 record in Hugh Freeze's first season as coach, and led the 2020 season off with a road upset of Western Kentucky as 14-point underdogs. Replacing 2019's star quarterback-wide receiver duo of Steven Calvert and Antonio Gandy-Golden was not expected to be easy, but Auburn transfer quarterback Malik Wills is making a smooth transition. Wills, a dual threat quarterback, notched 133 yards through the air and 168 yards on the ground, to complement running back Joshua Mack's 100 yards and lead the Flames to victory. Senior wide receiver DJ Stubbs always played second fiddle to Gandy-Golden but has two years of starting experience and will be a weapon throughout for Wills to utilize. On defense, the Flames do have some worries as they replace 7 starters, but does have star-power with defensive end TreShaun Clark, and the defense held Western Kentucky to under 300 yards.

This will will be the first-ever matchup between these two teams. Malik Wills, running behind an experienced offensive line with four seniors, is going to be a difficult matchup for FIU. Coach Hugh Freeze has never lost at Liberty when allowing less than 20 points in a game, and FIU's uncertainty at quarterback creates a massive question mark as to the direction of their offense.

Pick: Liberty -7



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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Corales Puntacana

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Well, I can't say I am surprised by Jon Rahm's meltdown at the U.S. Open after not using him for the Memorial and BMW Championship. I missed out on both of those victories to get a sloppy share of 23rd at Winged Foot, and that move will get compounded since it caused me to save Bryson DeChambeau for the Masters and not play him in New York. I have to say...this contest has just been one of those things where I can't get anything to go right.

Joe, on the other hand, maintained his sizable lead with a share of eighth place from Tony Finau, and I know Josh had to be disappointed by Justin Thomas' weekend meltdown that placed him in a position where he could only match our leader with his $302,236 payday.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - Corales Puntacana

Joe Nicely -Will Zalatoris 

Alternate - Kristoffer Ventura

I’ve tried to play the last couple of months of this OAD contest with “no fear” and I’m going to stick to that mantra this week in the Corales Puntacana Championship, an event with a field that looks like it was randomly picked out of a “Are we sure this guy is a PGA Tour player? Ok good, let’s get him in!” hat.

In a field composed mainly of veteran journeymen and young up-and-comers, I’m going with a player that has perhaps the brightest future of them all...Will Zalatoris. “Willie Z” is a player that hardcore golf fans have been keeping an eye on, but he put his name in the general public’s consciousness last week with an impressive T6 finish at the U.S. Open. This kid is no one-hit wonder, as he’s flat-out dominated the Korn Ferry Tour this season, posting a win and 10 (!) top-10s in just 16 starts

Yearly Earnings - $7,631,882

Yearly Cuts Made - 22/26

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Patrick Rodgers

Alternate - Kristoffer Ventura

Can I get a 50/50 call correct? Let's try this weekend by taking Patrick Rodgers over Kristoffer Ventura. I essentially need to shoot for the moon at this point, and I am not sure I can risk Joe (or even Josh) matching my selection. That places me in a position to grab a player that I am relatively sure won't be chosen by either, and I believe Rodgers' lack of support in all markets provides us an opportunity to acquire the American for outstanding value across the board.

A slight slip-up from the 192nd-ranked player in the world has seen him fail to crack the top-45 over his past three contests, but I don't want to get caught up in this narrative of saying that he is trending downwards. Rodgers has made six cuts in a row, and the weekend implosions during the Northern Trust and Wyndham Championship aren't something that I want to hold against him too harshly.

The 28-year-old becomes the third-player in my model when I stretch out his results to the Workday Charity Open, and while I do believe Ventura is a much safer option for those that are searching for a payday, I am going to go for broke and hope for the best.

Yearly Earnings - $4,542,975

Yearly Cuts Made - 20/26

 

Josh Bennett - Kristoffer Ventura

Alternate - Corey Conners

As most people do, on a resort course like this where it’s obvious there will be tons of birdies made all over the course, the main target for me this week are “birdie makers”. However, the birdie or better stat isn’t the one I’m chasing this week as many others are. The fairways are huge on this course and nearly impossible to miss, and on almost every hole other than the par 3’s these guys will have wedges into the green, making it also nearly impossible to miss the green. So I’m looking at the good putters that convert birdies at a high percentage. Kristoffer was 11th on tour in that statistic in 2020 and 2nd in this field behind Dom Bozzelli.

Kristoffer’s game is similar to Denny McCarthy’s who I also like a lot (but used in this contest already), and Denny has had some solid finishes in this tournament before, so it seems like that formula of golf works here. I’m hoping Joe and Spence lean towards a couple of the bad putters at the top of the board here and those guys have a couple bad putting days so I can somehow work my way back into this contest.

Yearly Earnings - $4,265,609

Yearly Cuts Made - 22/26

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236

 

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NHL DFS Prop Picks for 9/23/20 - Monkey Knife Fight

The puck drops on Game Three of the Stanley Cup Final Wednesday, a great opportunity to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Tampa Bay Lightning rebounded in Game Two of the Cup Final, jumping out to a 3-0 lead and hanging on for a 3-2 victory to even up the series after the Dallas Stars took the opening game of the series with a 4-1 victory in Game One.

Through the first two games, the Lightning have carried more of the play, with 59% of score-adjusted shot attempts and 55% of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Can they continue that territorial edge in Game Three?

Here are some prop angles to consider for Wednesday’s Tampa Bay-Dallas matchup on Monkey Knife Fight:

TAMPA BAY-DALLAS

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Anton Khudobin MORE THAN 27.5 SAVES

Throughout the postseason, Khudobin is averaging 30.2 saves per 60 minutes and he has 28 or more saves in five straight games. The Lightning have generated 30.6 shots per 60 minutes in the playoffs, with the opposition recording 27.94 saves per 60 minutes. All of this steers towards the over.

Andrei Vasilevskiy LESS THAN 27.5 SAVES

While Vasilevskiy has played very well in the playoffs, posting a .929 save percentage, he also doesn’t face a lot of shots so Vasilevskiy has averaged 24.5 saves per 60 minutes in the postseason. He has recorded 27 or fewer saves in seven of the past eight games. From the Stars’ perspective, they have generated 29.21 shots per 60 in the playoffs, with opposing goaltenders averaging 26.23 saves per game. Given the typical shot distributions that Khudobin and Vasilevskiy have faced in the playoffs, it’s reasonable to see one recording more than 27 saves and one with fewer than 28 saves.

Nikita Kucherov MORE THAN 0.5 ASSISTS

Tampa Bay’s playmaking winger leads the playoffs with 22 assists and 28 points in 21 games but this isn’t an automatic over because Kucherov has put up those 22 assists in just 11 games, recording zero assists in the other 10 games. This is a slight lean more than an overpowering angle but it’s tough to ignore Kucherov’s overall productivity.

Victor Hedman 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL + BLOCKS

Tampa Bay’s star defender has been attacking more offensively in the playoffs, averaging 3.19 shots on goal per game in the postseason. Paired with 40 blocked shots (1.90 per game) makes it pretty easy to like Hedman for at least four shots on goal plus blocks in Game Three.

RAPID FIRE

John Klingberg -0.5 fantasy points vs. Miro Heiskanen 

Heiskanen has had a breakout performance in the postseason, producing 23 points in 23 games, generating 49 shots on goal. At the same time, he has slumped recently, with just two assists in the past seven games so that does open the door for Klingberg, who has long been the most productive blueliner for Dallas but started slowly in the postseason. Nevertheless, Klingberg has picked up his production lately, with six assists in the past four games and has 19 points and 39 shots on goal in 22 playoff games.

Brayden Point -0.5 fantasy points vs. Jamie Benn

Point has been a dynamic offensive leader for the Lightning, taking on even more responsibility with Steven Stamkos out of the lineup, and Point has 26 points and 55 shots on goal in 19 playoff games. He has been battling an injury suffered against the Islanders in the Eastern Conference Final so he has been held off the scoresheet in two of the past three games. Benn has turned in a vintage playoff performance, producing 18 points and 62 shots on goal in 23 games though he has been held without a point in each of the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final.

As a reminder, here are point totals when it comes to MKF fantasy hockey points:

OFFENSE:

Goals = 3

Assists = 2

Shots on Goal = 1

Blocked Shots = 1

Shootout Goals = 1

GOALIE:

Goals against = -1 pt

Save= 0.2 pts

 

 

 

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PGA Betting Advice - Corales Puntacana

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (74-38-8), netting over 43 units of profit and slightly over a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

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Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection 

Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I believe name recognition for Charles Howell III has provided him a little more credit than he deserves for the week. The 41-year-old ranks outside the top-100 with his irons over his previous 24 rounds and fails to crack the top-50 compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

While I do like Adam Long and the general safety he provides, Howell isn't a natural head-to-head target because of his high percentage of made cuts. That doesn't mean we can't pinpoint an edge on a battle that will most likely go four days, but there is always more of a risk when things can go wrong on the weekend. I'd have made Long a -120 favorite and believe we are gaining around a 4.5 percent edge in terms of implied win probability.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It has been all-or-nothing for Sam Ryder since the beginning of 2020, as the 233rd-ranked player in the world has missed 10 of 18 cuts to go along with five top-30 finishes.  That level of volatility typically makes for a good golfer to target in the head-to-head spectrum, and Ryder's failed venture at the venue in 2018 adds to my optimism that we may see him miss out on another weekend.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Frankly, Ryder is the better statistical fit for Corales Puntacana. Three missed cuts in a row versus Rob Oppenheim's three consecutive top-36 results can only go so far, and there is a chance that we see Ryder turn it on in a big way to get himself out of his slump. For that reason, I am not entirely opposed to playing the American in GPP contests on DraftKings, but I do believe we are off by about 25 points from a head-to-head perspective.

0.70 Units to Win 0.77

 

Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Statistically, Sam Burns grades out as my most likely winner this weekend at Corales Golf Club. The 24-year-old has been trending towards his first PGA Tour victory, and the overall level of erraticness from Corey Conners can't be understated. Conners is not only 50/50 in made cuts at the venue in his two tries but is also 50/50 over his last six events on tour. I think there is a chance that we sneak a missed cut out of Conners, but more likely, I think Burns' upside can bypass that of what we get out of the Canadian.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

We could have a dogfight on our hands for four days. It doesn't take away from the fact that I want to find a way to identify some exposure to Burns after not selecting him in the outright market, nor does it ignore the nearly 4.5 percent edge that we have on the play. Still, though, Conners is always just a hot putter away from having a chance to compete for the title, and his overall makeup isn't that of someone that we are clamoring to fade.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (14-11-3)

2.02 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35
Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 T14 (-15) T29 (-13) Win 1.32
Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 T23 (+10) MC (+14) Win 1.17

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

21-22-0 (+2.57 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74
Tour Championship Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T18 (-5) T27 (+1) Win 0.7
Tour Championship Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl 0.85 Units to win 1.20 T24 (E) 30 (+4) Win 1.2
Tour Championship Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson 0.65 Units to win 1.11 T12 (-9) 1 (-21) Loss -0.65
Tour Championship Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson 0.45 Units to win 1.22 T2 (-18) 1 (-21) Loss -0.45

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open 33 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Justin Thomas Tour Championship 6 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Webb Simpson U.S. Open 50 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monday (9/21/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

The second Monday of the NFL season brings a compelling matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Las Vegas Raiders. As always, the game presents many opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Saints are coming off a 34-23 win against Tampa Bay in Week One, taking advantage of three Buccaneers turnovers to cruise to a comfortable victory. The Saints entered the season as one of the expected top teams in the NFC and they did nothing to alter that opinion.

In a tighter contest that involved seven lead changes, the Raiders ultimately prevailed with a 34-30 victory at Carolina. Expectations weren’t quite as high for Las Vegas this season but they were expected to be a competitive team.

That brings us to this Monday night game in which the Saints are favored but the Raiders may prove to be lively home underdogs in their first home game at Allegiant Stadium.

Here are some prop angles to consider for Monday’s New Orleans-Las Vegas NFL matchup on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

NEW ORLEANS-LAS VEGAS

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Drew Brees MORE THAN 268.5 PASSING YARDS

Although Brees was limited to just 160 yards passing in Week One, he did average more than 270 yards passing per game last season and that includes a game which he left with injury after throwing five passes. The Raiders allowed nearly 257 passing yards per game, the eighth-highest average in the league last season and surrendered 269 passing yards to Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater in Week One.

The real question may be whether or not the Saints can find a way to replace the production of star wide receiver Michael Thomas, who will miss Monday night’s game due to a high ankle sprain.

Derek Carr LESS THAN 260.5 PASSING YARDS

The Raiders quarterback threw for 239 yards at Carolina in Week One and has averaged 246.8 passing yards per game in the past three seasons. New Orleans allowed 241.8 passing yards per game last season, which was a little higher than league average, but just 5.9 net yards per attempt, which was clearly better than average – it indicates a team that had strong pass defense but allowed more yardage because they were leading a lot of games so their opponents may have been more inclined to pass more frequently in order to catch up.

Josh Jacobs MORE THAN 66.5 RUSHING YARDS

In his impressive 2019 rookie season, Jacobs churned out 88.5 rushing yards per game and then he ran for 93 yards (and three touchdowns) in Week One at Carolina. While the Saints had a solid run defense last season – 91.8 rushing yards against per game was the fourth-lowest mark in the league – and allowed 86 yards, including 66 yards on 17 carries to Ronald Jones II, to Tampa Bay in Week One. This suggests that if Jacobs is the main ball carrier for the Raiders, and he is, then he will have a pretty decent shot at rushing for at least 67 yards.

Jared Cook MORE THAN 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The Saints tight end averaged 50.4 receiving yards per game last season and had five catches for 80 yards at Carolina in Week One. With Thomas injured, Cook should be a more frequent target for Brees and while he’s not as likely to burst over 100 yards, it’s reasonable to expect Cook to put up more than 55.

Alvin Kamara LESS THAN 22.5 FANTASY POINTS

One of the most talented playmakers in the league, Kamara was also held to 16 yards on 12 carries against Tampa Bay in Week One. He did, however, finish with 67 yards and two touchdowns because he added five catches for 51 yards. His use as a pass receiver does give him a leg up in the PPR scoring used by Monkey Knife Fight. At the same time, despite those two touchdowns in Week One, Kamara is at least somewhat at risk of losing some rushing touchdown opportunities to Latavius Murray and finding the end zone makes it much easier to get to 23 or more fantasy points. Kamara could get there but it won’t be easy so the under appears safer.

RAPID FIRE

Josh Jacobs -13.5 rushing yards vs. Alvin Kamara

Kamara’s value as a pass catcher also tends to obscure the fact that he doesn’t tend to put up huge rushing totals. Last season, he averaged 56.9 rushing yards per game, compared to Jacobs putting up 88.5 rushing yards per game. That’s enough of a spread to take Jacobs and hope that the Raiders can at least keep it close so that they get to run the ball.

Darren Waller -0.5 receptions vs. Emmanuel Sanders

Waller, the Raiders tight end, busted out last season to catch 90 passes, 5.6 per game, and opened the 2020 season with six catches for 45 yards on eight targets. Sanders had just three catches for 15 yards against Tampa Bay and caught more than five passes just three times last season while playing with Denver and San Francisco. Certainly, there is a bigger role for Sanders to play in the New Orleans offense with Michael Thomas out of the lineup but it’s pretty easy to envision Waller with half a dozen (or more) catches and still a little more difficult to see that for Sanders.

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