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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Tuesday (10/20/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

The first pitch of the World Series goes tonight and that means more props to play on Monkey Knife Fight.

Even though it was a shortened 60-game season, with an expanded playoff, the teams with the two best records managed to reach the World Series.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the team that consistently has one of the highest payrolls in the sport. They have been seeking their first World Series crown since 1988 and they have been close, losing the World Series in both 2017 and 2018.

On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Rays are a bargain enterprise have never won the World Series, losing in their only appearance in the championship round in 2008.

Here are some angles to consider for the first game of the World Series on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

TAMPA BAY-LOS ANGELES

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Clayton Kershaw LESS THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS

There are few players in this series that come with the wildcard credentials of Kershaw. He may be the best pitcher of this generation but he has also struggled at times in the postseason and has recorded seven or more strikeouts in two of his past 10 postseason starts. However, the Rays are a team that tends to strike out. During the regular season, their strikeout rate of 26.9% was the second-highest rate in baseball and it’s gone up to 29.9% in the postseason. Still, can Kershaw be trusted?

Tyler Glasnow LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS

Glasnow recorded 18 strikeouts in 11 innings through his first two playoff starts this year but has seven strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings since. The Dodgers also happen to sit on the other end of the spectrum for strikeouts. Their strikeout rate of 20.3% was the third lowest rate in baseball.

Mookie Betts MORE THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS

The star Dodgers right fielder is hitting .311 with an .852 OPS in the playoffs and while he has yet to hit a home run, he’s consistently getting on base, and that includes reaching on multiple hits plus walks in nine of 12 postseason contests.

RAPID FIRE

Randy Arozarena -0.5 fantasy points vs. Yandy Diaz

Diaz, the Rays’ third baseman, is hitting .125 with a .489 OPS in the playoffs, compared to Arozarena, who is the hottest hitter in baseball. Arozarena has hit .382 with a 1.288 OPS in 14 playoff games. Take Arozarena against anyone right now but especially against Diaz.

Cody Bellinger -0.5 fantasy points vs. Brandon Lowe

Bellinger has been coming on for the Dodogers and while he’s hitting a mediocre .250, he has a .911 OPS, has walked eight times and driven in 10 runs in 12 playoff games. Lowe, on the other hand, is mired in a terrible slump, hitting .115 with a .360 OPS in the playoffs. The regular season was different, Lowe was the much more dangerous hitter, but it’s hard to go against their recent results.

Corey Seager +0.5 fantasy points vs. Mookie Betts

As good as Betts has been in the playoffs, hitting .311 with an .852 OPS, it’s not as good as Seager who has six home runs, 15 RBI, a .298 batting average and 1.124 OPS in 12 postseaason contests. Betts has been good but Seager has been great.

 

HOME RUN DERBY

Looking for a trio of players that might combine for more than 0.5 home runs? Try Randy Arozarena, Corey Seager, and Cody Bellinger, a trio that has combined for 16 home runs in the playoffs.



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Thursday (10/15/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

The playoff baseball run continues, with two more championship series games going tonight. That means lots of opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Los Angeles Dodgers lost the first two games of their series with the Atlanta Braves but scored 11 runs in the first inning of Game 3 on their way to a 15-3 win. They’re back in the series and looking to even up in Game 4.

The Tampa Bay Rays were fortunate to have a 3-0 series lead and the Houston Astros managed to get a 4-3 win to stay alive in Game 4. Can the Rays finish the job in Game 5?

Here are some angles to consider for the Thursday’s baseball games on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

HOUSTON-TAMPA BAY

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MORE OR LESS

Brandon Lowe LESS THAN 1.5 RUNS + RBI

While Lowe was one of the most productive second basemen in baseball this season, he’s mired in a horrible slimp. In the past nine games, he’s 1-for-32, so it’s pretty tough to count on him contributing to multiple runs.

George Springer LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS

While Springer is a valuable player for the Astros, he has managed to walk just once in the playoffs, leading to him reaching base multiple times in three of 10 postseason games.

Randy Arozarena MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES

How ridiculous has Arozarena’s playoff run been? He has put up multiple total bases in nine of 11 playoff games, slugging a ridiculous .907. He’s the best offensive threat in the Tampa Bay lineup.

Jose Altuve MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES

Following a brutal regular season and a slow start to the postseason, Altuve has picked up in a hurry. He’s 11-for-25 (.440 AVG) in the past six games, hitting five home runs. He’s an adventure in the field but that doesn’t appear to be messing with him at the plate.

RAPID FIRE

Willy Adames +0.5 hits + walks vs. Alex Bregman

Adames is hitting just .129 in the playoffs but he’s not afraid to take walks, giving him a .325 on-base percentage, which is almost respectable. Bregman has been okay, hitting .270 with a .386 on-base percentage but that’s not enough of an edge to like Bregman minus a half hit and walk against Adames.

Jose Altuve -0.5 total bases vs. Joey Wendle

Two players at opposite ends of the spectrum right now. Wendle is 2-for-17, with just two singles, in the past six games. Compared to Altuve, who has five home runs in the past six games, this doesn’t seem like a fair fight.

 

LOS ANGELES-ATLANTA

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MORE OR LESS

Clayton Kershaw LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS

He’s been pushed back a couple of days because of back issues but the Dodgers ace has been effective, recording at least six strikeouts in four of his past five starts. This is more a concern about his health, that maybe he’s not going to get pushed too late into this game.

Ronald Acuna Jr. LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS

The Braves star outfielder is just 1-for-16 in the past five games and while he will take a walk, it’s a bit of a challenge to count on him reaching base multiple times in Game 4.

Mookie Betts LESS THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES

Betts started the playoffs with multiple total bases in the first five games of the postseason but has been held to one or fewer in the past three games. He has hit one home run in 135 career playoff plate appearances.

Corey Seager MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES

In the past five games, Seager has gone 10-for-20, which makes it easy enough to like him for a couple of bases.

RAPID FIRE

Max Muncy +0.5 total bases vs. Justin Turner

In the playoffs, Muncy is slugging .538, while Turner is really struggling, slugging .167 in eight playoff games.

Freddie Freeman +0.5 total bases vs. Corey Seager

As great as Seager has been, it’s still tough to consider Freeman as an underdog. He slugged .640 during the regular season and while it’s .481 in the playoffs, he’s been hitting against the Dodgers.



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, October 12th - Monkey Knife Fight

The MLB playoffs are now well underway, and Monday features a pair of intriguing ALCS games. Although full-season fantasy leagues have been finished for more than a week now, fantasy players still have opportunities to make money with DFS.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

The Astros vs. Rays props are too close to call for my taste, but the Braves vs. Dodgers game features props worth considering. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Hit Parade

Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger more than 3.5 total hits

Freddie Freeman: 

53 batters have seen at least 100 fastballs above 96 mph since the beginning of last season, and none have posted a higher xwOBA against those pitches than Freddie Freeman (.504). Dropping that qualifier to 50 pitches expands the sample to 254 batters, and Freeman still ranks in the top-five, making him one of the best (if not the best) power-fastball hitter in baseball. Freeman will face off against a pitcher with a 97 mph average fastball velocity in Walker Buehler, and Buehler throws the pitch 54% of the time. Combined with the fact the Freeman has been arguably the best hitter in the National League with a resume that includes a .462 OBP that’s well-supported by a .341 xBA, a 28% chase rate, and an 8.5% swinging-strike rate, and Freeman’s relatively favorable matchup against Walker Buehler gives him a solid chance of reaching base multiple times on Monday. 

Dansby Swanson:

If Freddie Freeman is the league’s best high-velocity fastball hitter, Dansby Swanson isn’t far behind. Since the start of 2019, Swanson has posted a .302 xBA and a .710 xSLG against fastballs faster than 96 mph, good for a top-10 xBA among hitters who have seen at least 100 of those pitches. Swanson also owns a 9.8% swinging-strike rate and 22.8% chase rate against curveballs (Buehler’s best pitch by swinging-strike rate), and that strength should help insulate Swanson from strikeouts on Monday. All of that means that Swanson should pick up a hit or two on Monday, making him a solid addition to this prop.

Cody Bellinger:

Cody Bellinger feasts on fastballs outside of the strike zone. Only 11 hitters posted an xBA above Bellinger’s .309 mark against fastballs outside of the strike zone this season (min. 100 results), and his matchup against Braves starting pitcher Max Fried is favorable in that regard as Fried threw his fastball 42% of the time this season with more than half of those coming outside of the strike zone. A lefty-on-lefty matchup with Fried isn’t ideal for Bellinger, but the platoon shouldn’t have too much of an impact on Bellinger’s production. Indeed, Bellinger’s xBA against fastballs outside of the strike zone from southpaws sits .264 since he entered the league in 2017  -- still good for a top-30 mark this season better than any other hitter on the Dodgers. Combined with the fact that Bellinger is a generally excellent hitter who finished the season with a .339 xBA over his last 50 PA, Bellinger’s solid matchup makes him a strong fit for this prop.

 

Play the Hit Parade Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight



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MLB Prop Picks for Tuesday, October 6th - Monkey Knife Fight

Welcome to the Divisional Round of MLB. The next week (and month) should be a very exciting one in MLB and we here at Rotoballer will provide some MKF picks to get you through the postseason.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Let's take a look at some of today's contests.

 

Star Shootout Late Games: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Tyler Glasnow less than 7.5 strikeouts and Walker Buehler less than 6.5 strikeouts

Glasnow certainly has the stuff to reach eight strikeouts in this game as he has reached this total in eight of his 11 starts this season, but the Yankees have been hitting the ball well lately. Over the previous two weeks, the Yankees are only posting a K rate of 23.7% vs. right-handers, which is ranked 11th-best in baseball. They are also walking at a rate of 15.5%, which is tops in baseball over that same span. While I think Glasnow will have success and be able to go roughly six IP in this game, the strikeout total might be just a bit high in this prop. For this reason, I also like the over 15.5 pitching out for Glasnow in the 3/3 More or Less Contest.

Buehler has only reached seven strikeouts in one of his eight starts in 2020 and will be facing a very good Padres lineup. Over the previous two weeks, the Padres are only striking out at a clip of 17.6% vs. right-handed pitching, which ranks sixth in baseball over the span. Buehler also faced these Padres once back on August 3rd and only managed to strike out three across his five IP.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Yankees @ Rays: More or Less Contest

Tyler Glasnow less than 7.5 strikeouts and Deivi Garcia more than 4.5 strikeouts

Glasnow shows up in a couple of contests tonight (as does Walker Buehler) and I also like his counterpart in this contest, Devi Garcia. Garcia has managed to strike out at least six in all of his starts but one in 2020. He will be facing a Rays team that has been striking out quite a bit vs right-handed pitching recently. Over the previous two weeks, the Rays have a K rate of 29.4% vs. right-handers, which is third-worst in baseball. They are also only posting a SLG of .397, which is ranked 19th in baseball over that same span. Garcia should be able to go deep enough (he has gone at least six IP in all but two starts) to get over the hump here.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, October 5th - Monkey Knife Fight

Baseball is back after a weekend-long hiatus, and Monday features a pair of intriguing ALDS games. Although full-season fantasy leagues have been finished for more than a week now, fantasy players still have opportunities to make money with DFS.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

The props available for the Astros vs. A's game are a little too close to call for my taste, but the Yankees vs. Rays game features some attractive props that DFS players should consider. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

More or Less Contest #4

Gerrit Cole more than 18.5 total pitching outs, Blake Snell more than 6.5 strikeouts, DJ LeMahieu more than 1.5 total bases.

Gerrit Cole more than 18.5 total pitching outs: 

Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he only has to record one out in the seventh inning to hit the over on this prop. That’s a mark Cole has exceeded in each of his last four starts and seven of his 12 total starts this season. Plus, Cole got at least one out in the seventh inning in 22 of his 38 starts (58%) of his starts last season, including in all five of his postseason outings. Cole lasted only four innings in his most recent start against the Rays on August 31, but that was with Gary Sanchez behind the plate and before Cole embarked on a hot streak featuring a 1.32 ERA with a 16.2% swinging-strike rate over 34 innings. Combined with the fact that the Tampa Bay offense has posted a pedestrian .325 wOBA for the regular season, Cole’s track record of dominance and recent hot streak with Kyle Higashioka catching makes him worth betting on.

Blake Snell more than 6.5 strikeouts:

Snell has picked up at least seven strikeouts in four of his six starts with at least 80 pitches this year, and the Yankees appear unlikely to keep Snell from reaching that mark again on Monday. Snell relies primarily on his slider and curveball to generate strikeouts, and the New York offense has been only roughly average against those pitches with a 14.2% swinging-strike rate and a .266 xwOBA. Further working in Snell’s favor is that Monday’s game comes as a road game for the Yankees and the team posted a paltry .668 OPS away from Yankee Stadium this season compared to a league-best .907 mark at home. That advantage should allow Snell to work relatively deep into the game, bolstering his already solid chances of collecting more than six strikeouts.

DJ LeMahieu more than 1.5 total bases:

LeMahieu accumulated at least two total bases in 32 of his 52 games this year and 99 of his 154 games in 2019, giving him a 63.5% rate of two or more total bases in a game since the start of last season. And as good as Blake Snell is, LeMahieu matches up fairly well against the 27-year-old. For one, LeMahieu has mashed against lefties over the past two seasons with a combined .615 slugging percentage against southpaws. Also working in LeMahieu’s favor is Snell’s reliance on fastballs. Snell tends to throw his fastball around 50% of the time, and LeMahieu has posted a solid .563 xSLG against the pitch this season. A road game against an ace certainly isn’t an ideal matchup for LeMahieu, but the 32-year-old should manage to pick up at least two total bases on Monday and is worth picking in MKF as a result.

 

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

More risk-averse DFS players may prefer to opt for more or less contest #2 for this game (Gerrit Cole more than 18.5 total pitching outs, Blake Snell more than 16.5 total pitching outs), where taking the overs on total pitching outs for both pitchers is also an attractive bet for the reasons outlined above. Similarly, DFS players with higher risk tolerances would likely do well to double-down on the pitching matchup in this game, taking the overs in the second more or less contest and the positions recommended for more or less contest #4.



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MLB Prop Picks for Friday, October 2nd - Monkey Knife Fight

Welcome to the Wildest Wild Card Round MLB has ever seen. The next week (and month) should be a very exciting one in MLB and we here at Rotoballer will provide some MKF picks to get you through the postseason.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

The game we are going to focus on today is the Marlins at Cubs.

 

Marlins @ Cubs: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Yu Darvish more than 7.5 strikeouts and Sixto Sanchez more than 3.5 strikeouts

Yu Darvish has been excellent in 2020 and now gets an opportunity to pitch in the postseason for the first time since the 2017 World Series where he struggled mightily in Game 7 for the Dodgers. I think he comes into this game with a chip on his shoulder and gets over the total here. He has reached this total in six of his 11 starts this season and just narrowly missed it in three other starts. The Marlins are striking out at a rate of nearly 24% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks and are also only posting a wRC+ of just 62, so Darvish should be in line for a solid day.

Sixto Sanchez has burst onto the scene in 2020 and will be making his postseason debut today. He has a wicked sinker ball and has struck out 33 batters across his first 39 IP. He will be going up against a Cubs team that has been striking out at a clip of 25.4% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which ranks 15th-worst in the league. They also are only posting a 72 wRC+ mark vs. righties and have a mediocre 9.0% walk rate vs. them over the previous two weeks. Sixto should hopefully be able to take advantage of this and last long enough to get over the hump with four strikeouts.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest: Yu Darvish more than 17.5 pitching outs and Sixto Sanchez more than 14.5 pitching outs

Yu Darvish more than 17.5 pitching outs: The pitching outs prop is a new prop for the postseason and adds a nice little wrinkle to the more or less slate. This prop essentially amounts to Darvish making it through six IP and I think he is capable of doing that today. As mentioned above, the Marlins are only posting a wRC+ of 62 vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which ranks dead-last in baseball. They are also posting just a 6.8% walk rate over that same span, which is ranked sixth-worst. This tells me that Darvish should be able to navigate six innings, and he has also gone at least six in every start but his first this season.

Sixto Sanchez more than 14.5 pitching outs: Sanchez needs to make it through five IP in this game and I think he will be able to hit the mark. He has reached this total in five of his seven starts this season. The Cubs, as aforementioned, have not hit righties well over the previous two weeks and that is a big reason I like this over. The Marlins also have a bottom-five pen in terms of ERA and WHIP, so as long as Sixto does not get killed in the early going, they may be more likely to stick with him, especially since this is not an elimination game for the Marlins.

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Wednesday (9/30/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

The Major League Baseball playoffs are in full swing and with eight games going Wednesday there will be many opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

With so many games on the schedule, you can pick and choose the numbers that make the most sense to you.

Here are some angles to consider for the full slate of MLB playoff games on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES

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MORE OR LESS

Jose Berrios MORE THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS

After a slow start to the season, the Twins starter rounded into form and he recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his last seven starts in the regular season. The Astros did have the lowest strikeout rate (19.7%) in the league this year but Twins starter Kenta Maeda whiffed five in five innings in Game One.

Jason Heyward MORE THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS

The veteran Cubs outfielder had a strong season, which included a .392 on-base percentage and .848 OPS. He reached base multiple times in 24 of 50 games in which he appeared. Going against the Brewers, that’s enough opportunity to like Heyward to reach base twice.

Alex Bregman LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS

It was a down season for Bregman and he managed to reach base multiple times in 17 of 42 games in which he appeared this season.

RAPID FIRE

Ian Happ +0.5 hits + walks vs. Anthony Rizzo

Happ has been surprisingly productive for the Cubs and his .361 on-base percentage is better than Rizzo’s .342 OBP. That’s not a huge difference in one game but it’s also enough reason to like Happ as the underdog.

Kyle Tucker +0.5 runs + RBI vs. Jesus Aguilar

This is a close matcup, without the underdog getting an extra half run + RBI. Tucker is averaging 1.29 runs plus RBIs per game this season while Aguilar is averaging 1.27 per game. Getting that half run as an underdog makes Tucker the easy choice.

 

TORONTO-TAMPA BAY

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MORE OR LESS

Tyler Glasnow MORE THAN 7.5 STRIKEOUTS

Even if the Toronto Blue Jays have a better-than-average strikeout rate, and they do, Glasnow has been a strikeout machine, recording at least eight strikeouts in seven of his past eight starts.

RAPID FIRE

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. -0.5 fantasy points vs. Travis Shaw

Gurriel is one of the most reliable bats in the Blue Jays lineup, had an .882 OPS this season, and had a couple of hits in Game One. Shaw had a .717 OPS this season which is pretty low-end for a major league regular.

 

N.Y. YANKEES-CLEVELAND

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MORE OR LESS

Carlos Carrasco LESS THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS

Carrasco is a quality starter and averaged 6.8 strikeouts per start which probably isn’t enough to like him for at least seven against a Yankees team that has a low strikeout rate (21.7%) and already crushed Cleveland ace Shane Bieber in Game One.

Masahiro Tanaka MORE THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS

While Tanaka isn’t an ace starter, he has had five consecutive starts with at least five strikeouts (including four straight starts with precisely five) and might as well ride that streak against a suspect Cleveland lineup.

D.J. LeMahieu MORE THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS

The American League batting champion had a .421 on-base percentage this season so in four plate appearances, the lean would be towards going over 1.5 hits plus walks but if he gets to the plate five times, LeMahieu really should be able to reach base a couple of times.

Jose Ramirez MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES

The most dangerous bat in the Cleveland lineup, Ramirez had a career-high .607 slugging percentage this season. If he gets at least four at-bats, he should absolutely finish with multiple total bases.

RAPID FIRE

Aaron Judge -0.5 fantasy points vs. Aaron Hicks

Both Yankees outfielders are productive players but Judge has a much higher ceiling. During the season, Judge had an .891 OPS while Hicks had a solid .793 OPS. Judge is also hitting higher in the Yankees lineup (second in the order in Game One against Cleveland) so take the better hitter who has a better chance to get to the plate more often.

 

MILWAUKEE-LOS ANGELES

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Walker Buehler LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS

As good as Buehler is, he has had some injury issues and hasn’t been going very deep into games, going six innings just once. That makes it a little difficult to bank on at least six strikeouts, even against a Brewers lineup that has a higher strikeout rate (26.6%).

Christian Yelich MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES

The star Brewers outfielder got off to a terrible start to the season but has gradually been coming around. If the Brewers are going to do anything in the postseason, they will need Yelich to produce as he has in the past.

Corey Seager MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES

The Dodgers shortstop had an outstanding season, the best of his career, which included a .585 slugging percentage. If he gets at least four at-bats, he should be expected to accrue at least a couple of bases.

Cody Bellinger LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS

This was a strangely ineffective season for Bellinger, and his .333 on-base percentage doesn’t fit easily with reaching base multiple times in a single game.

 

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MLB Prop Picks for Tuesday, September 29th - Monkey Knife Fight

Welcome to the Wildest Wild Card Round MLB has ever seen. The next week (and month) should be a very exciting one in MLB and we here at Rotoballer will provide some MKF picks to get you through the postseason.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

A couple of games we can look at today include the Yankees at Indians and Astros at Twins.

 

Yankees @ Indians: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Shane Bieber less than 8.5 strikeouts and Gerrit Cole less than 8.5 strikeouts

Under most circumstances, I would go over on Shane Bieber here as he has just been an absolute machine in 2020, but the postseason is a different animal. The Yankees enter this series only striking out at a rate of 18.8% vs. right-handers, which is ranked third-best in baseball over that span. Every at-bat is going to be crucial in this game and the Yankees will certainly show patience at the plate as noted by their second-best BB rate vs. righties over the previous two weeks. The Indians also have one of the best pens in baseball, so they will not be timid about using them in the later innings, especially with a lead, as the minimal rest between games this year means starters may be asked to make quick turnarounds.

The Indians are in the same mold as the Yankees are they are only striking out at a rate of 22.3% vs. right-handers, which is ranked 11th-best over the previous two weeks. They have also been walking at a rate of 11.7%, which is third-best over the previous two weeks just behind the Yankees, so their patience at the plate should play a key role in this total. Cole has also only gone over this total in two of his previous five starts and also has an ERA of 3.67 on the road vs. a 2.09 at home this season.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

Astros @ Twins: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Kenta Maeda less than 6.5 strikeouts and Zack Greinke more than 4.5 strikeouts 

While Maeda has reached this total at a frequent pace in 2020, he was facing some high strikeout teams such as the Tigers, White Sox, and Brewers. In fact, he faced one of these teams in seven of his 11 starts this season. Now, he faces an Astros team that is a veteran of the postseason and knows how to work at-bats. The Astros are also the best team in baseball over the previous two weeks in terms of strikeouts vs. right-handed pitchers as they currently boast a rate of just 16.5%. They are also walking 9.2% vs. righties over that same span, which is ranked 12th-best in baseball.

Greinke is in a good position to be able to go over this total. He has reached at least five strikeouts in eight of his 11 starts in 2020. He will also be facing a Twins team that has been striking out at a rate of 26.8% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which ranks 10th-worst in baseball. The Twins are also entering the postseason cold (by their standards) vs. righties as they are only posting a wRC+ of 90 in the last two weeks.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Friday, September 25th - Monkey Knife Fight

Welcome to the final edition of Friday Night MLB Monkey Knife Fight! We have hit some solid props along the way this season and hopefully have a couple more left in the tank for tonight.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, September 25th presents a big slate of games to choose from. We can look to attack the Pirates at Indians and Cubs at White Sox.

 

Pirates @ Indians: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Carlos Carrasco more than 6.5 strikeouts and Mitch Keller less than 5.5 strikeouts

Carrasco should be able to get over this total vs. the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh has been striking out at a clip of 27.1% vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks, which ranks second-worst in baseball. They are also only posting a wRC+ of 58, which is third-worst in baseball over that span. The bottom line is that the Pirates have been awful vs. righties over the past two weeks and Carrasco just managed to strike out a similarly bad Tigers team 11 times in his most recent start.

Keller has only reached this total once in 2020 and he barely got over it with six strikeouts vs. a Cardinals team that is striking out at a rate of 28.8% vs. righties over the previous two weeks, which is third-worst in baseball. The Indians are a much taller task for Keller as they are only striking out at a rate of 24.2%. The Indians have the 10th-best BB rate vs. righties over the past two weeks with a rate of 9.9% and Keller has struggled in that department by allowing 10 BB in just over 18 IP. It is not a good matchup for Keller tonight.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest: Ceasar Hernandez more than 1.5 hits/walks

Cesar Hernandez more than 1.5 hits/ walks- Hernandez has been the most consistent hitter on the Indians and has also been hot as of late. Over the past two weeks, Hernandez is slashing .375/.412/.521. He has also reached this total in six of his previous 10 games. He is also hitting better at home in 2020 and hitting right-handers better as well. He checks all the boxes to go over on this prop.

Cubs @ White Sox: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Yu Darvish more than 7.5 strikeouts and Dylan Cease more than 4.5 strikeouts

Darvish is getting the White Sox at the right time and should be able to get over the total. He has struck out at least 8 in five of his last six starts and just missed the total by one strikeout in the other game. He is facing a White Sox team that is currently striking out at a rate of 27.9% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which is ranked sixth-worst in baseball. The White Sox are also only walking at a clip of 6.9%, so Darvish should be a solid more than pick here.

Dylan Cease has been a bit of a bugaboo for me as it pertains to strikeouts props in 2020. That being said, he is in a good spot for this game as the Cubs are in a free fall currently. Over the previous two weeks, the Cubs are posting a wRC+ of just 58 vs. right-handed pitching, which is ranked fourth-worst in the league. They are also striking out at a rate of 26%, which has them ranked 13th-worst in the league. Cease also struck out five Cubs the last time he faced them on 8/23. Cease is also posting a 1.77 ERA at home, so there could be plenty of opportunity for him to go a bit deeper into the game.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Thursday, September 24th - Monkey Knife Fight

We are nearing the end of the MLB regular season, but that does not mean we can't continue to take advantage of some awesome prop picks.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Now, to the games at hand:

 

Orioles @ Red Sox: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Martin Perez more than 4.5 strikeouts and Alex Cobb less than 3.5 strikeouts

Martin Perez has had some ups and downs in 2020, but has a solid matchup vs. the Orioles. The Orioles have been absolutely awful vs. left-handed pitching over the previous two weeks. They are positing a K rate of 29.9%, which is ranked fifth-worst in the league. They are also only posting a wRC+ mark of 24, which is ranked second-worst in the league. Perez has also reached this total in three of his previous four games.

Alex Cobb has not been great in 2020 as he has posted an ERA near five and a WHIP of 1.37. He will be facing a Red Sox team that has not been striking out much vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks as noted by their K rate of just 20.7%, which is good for eighth-best in baseball. Cobb is also only posting a 17.3% K rate vs. Red Sox hitters that have faced him.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Marlins @ Braves: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Ian Anderson more than 5.5 strikeouts and Pablo Lopez more than 4.5 strikeouts

Ian Anderson gets a good matchup vs. the Marlins on Thursday night. The Marlins have been striking out at a rate of 26.1% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks and are also only posting a wRC+ mark 83, which means Anderson should be able to navigate this lineup. Anderson has also reached this total in four of his five starts in 2020.

Pablo Lopez's prop is a tad scarier only because the Braves have not been striking out as much as we would like vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks. Their mark currently sits at just 20.6%, but Lopez certainly has the stuff to reach five strikeouts in this matchup. He has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in four of his last five starts. While the one start he did not hit five was vs. Atlanta, he did manage to strike out eight Braves back on 8/14. I am going to trust the stuff of Lopez and go with the more than here.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, September 21st - Monkey Knife Fight

Monday kicks off the last week of the 2020 MLB regular season, but there's still time to rake in some more money with DFS props. To that end, fantasy players should take a look at Monkey Knife Fight, where plenty of opportunities exist for profit every day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Monday features a slate of 11 MLB games, including several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

More or Less Contest #1

Lance McCullers Jr. more than 5.5 strikeouts, Marco Gonzales more than 3.5 strikeouts.

Lance McCullers Jr. more than 5.5 strikeouts:

McCullers missed a start with a neck issue earlier this month but returned to the rotation to throw seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts against the Angels. Importantly, McCullers threw his curveball a season-high 46.5% of the time in that start after using the pitch around 35% of the time in most of his starts this season. A 46% usage rate for McCullers’s curve is in line with his career average usage for the pitch, so it’s reasonable to expect that usage uptick to continue into Monday’s start, giving him a good chance to pick up at least six strikeouts. Even in a down year this season, McCullers has generated a solid 15.4% swinging-strike rate with his curveball, and the pitch boasts a 17.7% swinging-strike rate for his career. The Mariners own a worse than average 13% swinging-strike rate against curveballs this season, and the team’s .260 xwOBA against the pitch ranks as the seventh-worst mark in the league. McCullers should have little trouble striking out at least six Seattle batters on Monday as a result, making him an appealing option at MKF.

Marco Gonzales more than 3.5 strikeouts:

Gonzales has collected at least four strikeouts in seven of his nine starts this season including each of his last five (during which he averaged 7.2 strikeouts per start), and it’s come as he’s mostly ditched his changeup in favor of his sinker. That kind of pitch-mix adjustment doesn’t generally lead to an increase in strikeouts, but it’s resulted in career-highs in Gonzales’s called+swinging-strike (32%) and strikeout (23.7%) rates this season. Gonzales’s sinker in particular has seen its called-strike rate rise this season as he’s thrown the pitch in the strike zone at a career-high 62% of the time, and that should help Gonzales rack up strikeouts against the Astros. Houston’s 23% called-strike rate against sinkers this season is as high as any team’s this season, and that should be even worse against Gonzales’s above-average sinker on Monday. Four strikeouts should be a relatively easy total for Gonzales on Monday as a result, making him worth betting on.

 

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

More or Less Contest #2

George Springer more than 1.5 total bases, Kyle Lewis less than 1.5 hits/walks.

George Springer more than 1.5 total bases:

Springer owns a .488 slugging percentage and a .574 xSLG this season, and Marco Gonzales and the Seattle bullpen is unlikely to hold him to fewer than two total bases on Monday. Gonzales relies primarily on his sinker, a pitch against which Springer owns a .478 xSLG this season. Further working in Springer’s favor is that the Seattle bullpen has allowed opposing hitters to post a .469 slugging percentage this season, and the unit owns the league’s third-worst ERA with a 6.02 mark. Springer should have little trouble collecting at least two total bases on Monday as a result and should be counted on by DFS players at MKF.

Kyle Lewis less than 1.5 hits/walks:

Lewis has enjoyed an impressive if somewhat streaky season this year with a .380 OBP, but he’s unlikely to reach base more than once against the Astros on Monday. Astros starter Lance McCullers is likely to rely primarily on his curveball against Lewis on Monday, and that usage should largely work against Lewis. Lewis has reached base against curveballs frequently this season with a .421 OBP against the pitch, but he’s relied on a 24% chase rate and a 100% z-contact rate for much of that success. Given that McCullers’s curveball owns a 39% chase rate for his career, Lewis is likely to chase the pitch out of the zone more frequently than usual against McCullers, and that should suffocate his production. The Houston bullpen has held opposing hitters to a respectable .356 OBP this season, too, so Lewis should have a difficult time reaching base more than once on Monday.

 

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

Home Run Derby Contest

Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Teoscar Hernandez to hit at least one home run.

The Yankees and Blue Jays will face off at the league’s second-most homer-friendly park on Monday, making a home run derby contest an easy pick for this game. Even better is that there are attractive matchups, and Monday’s game should see several home runs as a result. Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Teasocar Hernandez are especially likely to hit home runs on Monday, and DFS players should keep that in mind.

Giancarlo Stanton:

There’s a case to be made for taking Aaron Judge here, but Stanton had a day-off on Sunday and the Yankees may elect to sit Judge given that the 28-year-old has played in each of the team’s last two games. Stanton is far from a poor consolation prize anyway, as the 30-year-old is one of the league’s best power hitters and has four home runs through 17 games this season. Stanton will go against a pitcher who tends to rely primarily on his fastball and sinker in Tanner Roark, pitches against which Stanton owns a combined .655 xSLG against since the beginning of last season. That’s enough to make Stanton worth betting on for Monday’s game.

Luke Voit:

Voit is 2020’s home run leader coming into Monday, and he’s got a good chance to extend that lead in Buffalo on Monday. Like Stanton, Voit has been excellent against sinkers and fastballs with a combined .586 xSLG against the pitches since the start of last season, and Tanner Roark hasn’t exactly limited home runs this season with a 7.8% home run rate coming into Monday’s game. Voit is an easy inclusion in this prop as a result, and he should have a relatively easy time going yard for his 22nd home run of the season on Monday.

Teaoscar Hernandez:

I’d probably pick Gary Sanchez here if MKF allowed for the selection of three players on one team, but Teaoscar Hernandez is still a very solid option. Hernandez has posted a ridiculous 8.6% home run rate so far this season, and he’s done it with a 57% hard-hit rate and a .678 xSLG. The Yankees haven’t announced their starting pitcher for Monday’s game as of the writing of this article, but Michael King is a likely possibility, and Hernandez matches up exceptionally well against King and his sinker-heavy pitch mix with a .784 xSLG against sinkers since the beginning of last season. Hernandez has a decent chance of homering regardless of who the Yankees trot out on Monday, though, and he’s a worthwhile inclusion in this prop as a result.

Play the Home Run Derby Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Friday, September 18th - Monkey Knife Fight

Although we have had some bumps along the way this MLB season, the show continues to move forward for the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, September 18th presents a big slate of games to choose from. We can look to attack the Indians at Twins and Tigers at White Sox.

 

Indians @ Tigers: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Zach Plesac more than 4.5 strikeouts and Miguel Cabrera less than 1.5 hits/walks

Zach Plesac should be a strong play here vs. Detroit. Plesac has struck out at least five in five of his six starts this season. He will be facing a Tigers team that is currently striking out at a rate of 28.5% vs. right-handed pitchers over the previous two weeks, which is ranked third-worst in baseball over that span.

Miguel Cabrera has been cold over the previous two weeks as he is hitting just .224 with seven BB. He is also hitting just .210 off of right-handed pitching this season, so Plesac is a bad matchup for him as well. In the previous 10 games, Cabrera has only reached this total three times, so the less than looks even better here.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Twins @ Cubs: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Rich Hill more than 5.5 strikeouts and Kyle Hendricks less than 4.5 strikeouts

Going more than 5.5 on Hill may seem a bit scary, but the Cubs have been dreadful vs. left-handed pitching over the previous two weeks. The Cubs have posted a K rate of 36% vs. lefties over the previous two weeks, which ranks dead-last in baseball. They are also only posting a wRC+ make of 73, which ranks seventh-worst in baseball, so Hill should hopefully be able to avoid trouble and get over the hump here.

Hendricks will be facing a Twins team that is not striking out vs. right-handers as of late. In the previous two weeks, the Twins are posting a K rate of just 21%, which is eighth-best in baseball. The Twins are also walking at a 9.5% clip vs. righties, which ranks 10th-best in MLB over the previous two weeks. Lastly, the Twins are posting a wRC+ mark of 135 vs. righties over the previous two weeks, which ranks third-best in baseball over the same span. All of this adds up to Minnesota heading into this game in good shape and is a big reason I like the less than here.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Thursday, September 17th - Monkey Knife Fight

Thursday nights have been kind of slow, but we may have a good one in Detroit tonight. We have Bieber on the mound against a young, upstart, Casey Mize. Let's see what our friends at MKF say about it.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Now, to the game at hand:

 

Indians @ Tigers: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Shane Bieber more than 9.5 strikeouts and Casey Mize more than 4.5 strikeouts

Bieber has been lights out and has reached this total in six of his ten starts thus far. The Tigers are currently striking out at a rate of 27% vs. right-handers over the last two weeks, which ranks them fifth-worst in the league. Bieber also struck out 11 Tigers the last time he faced them on August 15th. It is almost to the point where you have to play Bieber over anything below double-digits, so that is what we are looking at here vs. a team that K's heavily vs. righties.

Casey Mize has come on strong and could be facing the Indians at the right time. The Indians rank seventh-worst in K rate vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks with a rate of 25.4% while also posting a lowly 68 wRC+. Mize is not likely to find trouble in this game and has the potential to go over the total.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, September 14th - Monkey Knife Fight

There are only two weeks left in this year's MLB season, and with many fantasy managers eliminated from their playoffs, their focus may be shifting to DFS. Those fantasy players should take a look at Monkey Knife Fight, where there are plenty of attractive DFS options.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Monday features a slate of 10 MLB games, including several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

More or Less Contest #2

Corey Seager more than 1.5 total bases, Austin Nola less than 1.5 hits/walks.

Corey Seager more than 1.5 total bases:

Seager owns a ridiculous .752 xSLG so far this season, and that alone makes him relatively likely to pick up at least two total bases. It’s not as if Dilenson Lamet is a particularly bad matchup for Seager, either. Lament throws his slider more than 50% of the time, and Seager has posted a .642 xSLG against the pitch so far this season -- a step down from his overall xSLG, but still impressive. Another 36% of Lamet’s pitches are fastballs, pitches against which Seager owns a .954 xSLG this season. That’s enough to make Seager an easy bet for two or more total bases on Monday.

Austin Nola less than 1.5 hits/walks

Nola has reached base at least twice in 14 of his first 37 games this season, and he’s going up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw on Monday. It’s a small sample size, but Nola has posted a reverse platoon split so far this season with a .256 OBP against southpaws, making his matchup against Kershaw even less favorable. Further working against Nola’s favor is that the Los Angeles bullpen has held opposing batters to a .284 OBP, so even if Kershaw gets knocked out of the game then Nola should still have a difficult time reaching base. It’s unlikely that Nola reaches base more than once on Monday as a result, and he’s worth betting against. 

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

More or Less Contest #2

Jose Abreu more than 1.5 total bases, Jorge Polanco less than 1.5 hits/walks.

Jose Abreu more than 1.5 total bases:

Abreu has been red-hot this season with a .627 slugging percentage and a .622 xSLG, and he should be able to collect at least two total bases against Jose Berrios and the Twins on Monday. Berrios mixes his pitches well and uses his curveball (30% usage rate), fastball (25%), sinker (25%), and changeup (20%) fairly evenly, but Abreu has hit well against all four pitches this season. For the year, Abreu owns a .694 xSLG against those four pitches combined, and he even posted a strong .604 xSLG against those pitches last season. If Berrios is knocked out of the game, Abreu will face a solid Minnesota bullpen that’s allowed a .413 slugging percentage to opposing hitters this season, but that’s come largely against a weak AL Central and Abreu should have a decent chance of hitting well against the unit. All of that makes Abreu likely to pick up at least two total bases on Monday, and he’s worth betting on at MKF.

Jorge Polanco less than 1.5 hits/walks:

Polanco owns a fairly poor .317 OBP for the season, and he’s ill-equipped to face Dylan Cease and the White Sox on Monday. Cease throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time, and Polanco owns a mediocre .346 against fastballs for his career. Similarly, Polanco isn’t a particularly strong slider hitter with a career .322 OBP against the pitch, and Cease throws his slider more than 30% of the time. Combined with the fact that Polanco posted a .207 xBA against sliders located down and in (where Cease throws the bulk of his sliders to lefties) last season, Polanco’s unexceptional performance against sliders and fastballs makes Cease a poor matchup. Once Cease leaves, Polanco will face a dominant Chicago bullpen that’s allowed a .308 OBP to opposing batters, making it even more difficult for Polanco to reach base. It’s unlikely that Polanco reaches base more than once on Monday as a result, making him worth betting against.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest #3

Nelson Cruz more tan 1.5 hits/walks, Tim Anderson more than 1.5 total bases.

Nelson Cruz more than 1.5 hits/walks:

Cruz boasts an impressive .418 OBP so far this season, and he should play well against Chicago starting pitcher Dylan Cease. Cease throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time, and Cruz owns a strong .402 OBP against the pitch since the start of last season. Even sliders -- which Cease throws about 30% of the time -- haven’t neutralized Cruz recently, as the 40-year-old has posted a .335 OBP against sliders since the start of last season. The Chicago bullpen is tough this year, but Cruz should manage to reach base at least twice on Monday thanks to a favorable matchup against Cease.

Tim Anderson more than 1.5 total bases:

Anderson owns a .581 slugging percentage and .539 xSLG so far this season, and he’s picked up at least two total bases in 21 of his 35 games this year. As solid as opposing starter Jose Berrios has been this season, he’s struggled to limit quality contact and has allowed a .391 xwOBAcon. Given that Anderson owns a better-than-average 21% strikeout rate and 71% in-play rate since the start of 2019, he should put the ball in play at least twice on Monday. Berrios’s contact quality issues should benefit Anderson as a result, and that gives Anderson a solid chance of collecting at least two total bases.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Friday, September 11th - Monkey Knife Fight

Although we have had some bumps along the way this MLB season, the show continues to move forward for the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, September 11th presents a big slate of games to choose from. We can look to attack the Indians at Twins and Tigers at White Sox.

 

Indians @ Twins: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Shane Bieber more than 9.5 strikeouts and Kenta Maeda more than 5.5 strikeouts

It may seem a little wild to go with the more than here with Bieber, but he has reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his nine starts and he did it vs. the Twins back on 7/30 when he struck out 13. The Twins have been struggling lately and they are striking out at a rate of 24.2% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which ranks ninth-worst in baseball. Bieber has shown over and over that he is nearly untouchable in 2020 and that is why I have to take the more than here.

Maeda has been solid in 2020 and has gone over this total in each of his last four starts, including a start vs. these Indians when he struck out seven on 8/24. The Indians have been struggling a bit lately vs. right-handers as they are striking out at a rate of 22.9%, which ranks them 16th-worst in the league. They also just whiffed a total of eight times vs. Brady Singer last night.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

More or Less Contest: Cesar Hernandez less than 1.5 hits/walks

Cesar Hernandez less than 1.5 hits/walks: While Hernandez has been one of the more consistent hitters on the Indians, he has been cold over the previous week as noted by his .207/.207/.310 slash line with zero walks. He has not reached this prop in his previous five games and has missed it in six of his last eight. He will be facing a formidable opponent in Maeda and a strong pen as well.

 

Tigers @ White Sox: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Lucas Giolito more than 8.5 strikeouts and Casey Mize less than 5.5 strikeouts

Giolito has been a stud in 2020 and I expect more of the same out of him tonight. He has struck out at least nine in five of his nine starts in 2020, including three of his last four. The last time he faced Detroit on 8/20, he struck out 13. The Tigers have also been awful vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks as they are posting a K rate of 26.4%, which ranks fourth-worst in baseball.

Casey Mize has struggled a bit to begin his career and I expect him to continue his struggles vs. the White Sox tonight. Mize has posted a 6.75 ERA on the season, has walked two batters in each of his previous three starts, and has not managed to make it past four IP in each of those starts. While the White Sox are striking out at a clip of 25.1% (sixth-worst), they are walking at a rate of 7.8% and posting a wRC+ mark of 123. In the end, I think this White Sox offense is too much for Mize and prevents him from getting to the six K total.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

More or Less Contest: Tim Anderson more than 1.5 Total Bases

Tim Anderson more than 1.5 total bases: Tim Anderson has been on fire the previous week as he is slashing .364/.400/.455. While he has mashed left-handers in 2020, he has done well vs. right-handers as well. This is noted by his.287 BA with one HR and four doubles. He has gone over this total in five of his previous eight games and should be able to find more success vs. Mize and a Tigers pen that ranks 26th in ERA.



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Thursday, September 10th - Monkey Knife Fight

The MLB season continues to move forward and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those. Next, I will often offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, September 10th presents a slate of 12 games. A couple of the games we can look to take advantage of include the Orioles at Yankees and Royals at Indians.

 

Orioles @ Yankees: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Gerrit Cole more than 8.5 strikeouts and Keegan Akin more than 3.5 strikeouts

Cole has struggled this season, but one area he has not struggled in is strikeouts. He has posted 70 K through his first 52 IP and has struck out at least eight in five of his last six starts, including his most recent start where he struck out 10 Orioles. The Orioles are currently striking out 22% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks and are not walking (6.4%), so Cole should hopefully be able to have a solid performance here.

Keegan Akin has come on strong in his last two starts as he has struck out 14 across his last 11 IP. He was also a strong performer in the minors as he finished 2019 with 131 K in just over 112 IP. The Yankees just faced him on 9/5 and went down on strikes a total of eight times. They are also striking out at a rate of 22.9% vs. left-handers over the previous two weeks, which is 11th-worst in baseball.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Royals @ Indians: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Aaron Civale more than 5.5 strikeouts and Brady Singer more than 3.5 strikeouts

Civale has been solid this season and should continue to have success against the Royals tonight. Over the previous two weeks, the Royals have posted a 24.9% K rate vs. right-handers, which ranks eighth-worst in the league. They have also struggled to score vs. righties as noted by their 78 wRC+ over that same span. Civale has struck out at least six batters in five of his eight starts this season, which is another reason I like the more than here.

Brady Singer has also reached his total in five of his eight starts, including his first start of the season vs. these Indians in which he struck out seven batters. The Indians have also been struggling a bit over the previous two weeks as they have posted a K rate of 22.2% and only walking at a rate of 8.3% vs. right-handers, both of which are worse than their season totals.

 

More or Less Contest - Francisco Lindor more than 1.5 total bases

Francisco Lindor more than 1.5 total bases -Lindor has started to heat up as of late as he has hit .341 with a .965 OPS over the previous two weeks. He has also gone over this total in three of his previous four games and is posting an .824 OPS at home this season.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, September 7th - Monkey Knife Fight

With less than one month left in the season and full-season leagues nearing their playoffs, many fantasy managers may be shifting their focus to DFS. That makes Monkey Knife Fight an attractive fantasy option for the rest of the season.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Monday features a slate of 11 MLB games, including several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest #1

Dinelson Lamet more than 7.5 strikeouts, Kyle Freeland less than 3.5 strikeouts.

Dinelson Lamet more than 7.5 strikeouts:

Lamet has been excellent so far this season, picking up eight or more strikeouts in four of his eight starts. Lamet relies primarily on his slider for whiffs; not only does he throw the pitch more than half of the time (51.65% usage rate so far this season), but it’s also been extremely effective with a 23.4% swinging-strike rate and a .203 xwOBA. Lamet will go up against a Rockies offense that has posted an 18% swinging-strike rate against sliders so far this season and has been generally inept on the road with a 25.2% strikeout rate and .649 OPS away from Coors Field. That should allow Lamet to pick up at least eight strikeouts on Monday and makes him worth betting on.

Kyle Freeland less than 3.5 strikeouts:

Freeland gets the benefit of being away from Coors Field on Monday, but he’s slated to pitch against an imposing San Diego offense. The Padres boast a 21% strikeout rate and a .805 OPS against southpaws so far this season, and the team has been particularly good against Freeland’s go-to pitch (changeup) with a .333 xwOBA against changeups that ranks third-best in the major leagues. Combined with Freeland’s already lackluster strikeout ability given his career 18% strikeout rate, the unfavorable matchup makes Freeland unlikely to collect more than three strikeouts on Monday.

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Home Run Derby Contest

Wil Myers, Manny Machado, and Trevor Story hit at least one home run.

Wil Myers:

Myers has always been better against lefties than righties, but he’s hit particularly well against southpaws so far this season. Four of Myers’s nine home runs have come against lefties this season, giving him an 8.5% home run rate and a 1.261 OPS against lefties. It’s a small sample size, but Myers has also destroyed changeups this season with a 1.254 OPS against the pitch, and he’s got a solid .740 OPS against changeups for his career. That should give him a good chance of going yard against Kyle Freeland and a Colorado bullpen that’s allowed 21 home runs over 133 innings so far this year.

Manny Machado:

Machado has matched Myers’s four home runs against lefties this season, but he’s been slightly worse against changeups with a .690 OPS against the pitch so far this season and a .734 mark for his career. Still, Machado has a reasonably high chance of homering against Freeland and the Rockies’ bullpen and is a solid addition to this group.

Trevor Story:

Story is considerably worse on the road than at home, but he mashes sliders and gets a relatively favorable matchup in Lamet as a result. Story has posted a 1.149 OPS against sliders so far this season, and four of his nine home runs have come against the pitch. As good as Lamet has been, he has allowed more than one home run per nine innings, and Story likely has the best chance of any Colorado batter to homer on Monday.


Play the Home Run Derby Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Early Games Star Shootout: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest #2

Josh Donaldson more than 1.5 total bases, Andrew McCutchen less than 1.5 hits/walks.

Josh Donaldson more than 1.5 total bases:

Donaldson should have no trouble getting at least two total bases on Monday, making this my favorite prop of the day. Donaldson has posted an xSLG above .500 in four of the past five seasons, and he’s posted a .448 mark over his last 50 plate appearances. Donaldson will go up against who is effectively an opener in Micheal Fulmer (1.043 OPS allowed so far this season), before facing a Detroit bullpen that’s allowed a .406 SLG that’s been a little lucky based on the unit’s .270 BABIP, especially considering that the Detroit starters have allowed a .310 BABIP so far this year. Overall, Donaldson should comfortably pick up at least two total bases on Monday.

Andrew McCutchen less than 1.5 hits/walks:

McCutchen went on a tear of five multi-hit games in six opportunities at the end of August, but he’s cooled off in September and reached base at least twice in only two of his last five games. McCutchen will go up against promising Mets rookie David Peterson, and although Peterson has walked batters at a 10.7% clip, McCutchen has chased pitches outside of the strike zone at a 25.3% rate this season and is walking in only 6.5% of his plate appearances. The Mets bullpen has also been solid this season with a .332 OPB allowed, making it unlikely that McCutchen reaches base more than once on Monday.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Friday, September 4th - Monkey Knife Fight

Although we have had some bumps along the way this MLB season, the show continues to move forward for the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, September 4th presents a big slate of games to choose from. We can look to attack the Cardinals at Cubs and Padres at Athletics.

 

Cardinals @ Cubs: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Yu Darvish less than 7.5 strikeouts and Jack Flaherty more than 5.5 strikeouts

Yu Darvish has been electric thus far in 2020, but reaching eight strikeouts may be a tall task for him vs. the Cardinals tonight. In his last start vs. the Cardinals on August 18th, he managed to strike out seven, but the Cardinals have been solid vs. righties lately. In the previous two weeks, the Cardinals are only striking out 21.2% vs. right-handed pitching, which ranks 13th in the league. They have also been very patient at the plate as they are posting the highest BB rate vs. righties over the previous two weeks with a rate of 17.3%, which bodes well for the less than mark here.

Jack Flaherty has been eased along to begin 2020, but he finally reached the 83 pitch mark on August 29th vs. the Indians. He should be able to handle his normal workload at this point and that means going over the 5.5 total here. The Cubs have been awful vs. right-handed pitching the last two weeks as they are posting 23.3% K rate over that span.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

More or Less Contest: Paul Goldschmidt more than 1.5 hits/walks

Paul Goldschmidt more than 1.5 hits/walks: Goldschmidt has been hot all season and has been really cooking the previous seven days as he is batting .350 with four BB. He has reached this total in three of his previous seven games and two of his previous three. He will also get to face a Cubs pen that is currently posting a 5.05 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

 

Padres @ Athletics: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Jesus Luzardo less than 5.5 strikeouts and Zach Davies more than 3.5 strikeouts

Jesus Luzardo has reached this total in his last two starts, but he will be going up against a different animal in the Padres' offense on Friday night. The Padres are only striking out at a rate of 19.4% vs. lefties over the previous two weeks, which ranks them sixth in baseball over that span. They are also posting a wRC+ mark of 139, which ranks them fifth overall. It is a tough matchup for Luzardo and that is why I like the less than here.

I am not quite sure why Davies total is set so low here. He has struck out at least four batters in every single start except one this season. He has actually reached five strikeouts in every game except that one as well, so the 3.5 is a bit puzzling. Couple that with the fact that Oakland is striking out at a rate of 27.7% vs. right-handed pitchers over the past two weeks (worst in the league) and you have a great recipe for success for Davies.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Thursday, September 3rd - Monkey Knife Fight

The MLB season continues to move forward and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, September 3rd presents a slate of 8 games. A couple of the games we can look to take advantage of include the Cubs at Pirates and Nationals at Phillies.

 

Cubs @ Pirates: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - JT Brubaker more than 3.5 strikeouts and Alec Mills more than 3.5 strikeouts

Brubaker appears to have taken over in the Pirates' rotation as he was able to throw over 80 pitches en route to a six strikeout performance across five innings in his last start. He will be going up against a Cubs squad that is striking out at a rate of 24.5% vs. right-handers in the previous two weeks, which ranks 13th worst in baseball. Brubaker has the stuff to rack up four strikeouts and he also managed to achieve three strikeouts in three innings vs. the Cubs back on August 1st.

Alec Mills has gone over this total in three of his first six starts and has a great opportunity to do it again vs. the Pirates. The Pirates currently rank third-worst in the league in terms of K rate vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks with a rate of 27.1%. They are also only posting a 65 wRC+ mark over that same span, which ranks second-worst in baseball. This should allow Mills to go deeper into the game and achieve the total.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest - Ian Happ more than 1.5 hits/walks

Ian Happ more than 1.5 hits/walks - Happ has been tremendous this season as he is currently slashing .308/.420/.642. He has been solid from both sides of the plate and currently has 27 hits in 88 AB vs. right-handed pitching, which bodes well for him in this matchup. The Pirates also have a pen that ranks ninth-worst in the league with a 1.45 WHIP. Add in the fact that Happ has reached this total in five of his last seven games as well as each of the last four and you have a solid chance for him to hit the over.

 

Nationals @ Phillies: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Anibal Sanchez less than 3.5 strikeouts and Zach Eflin more than 3.5 strikeouts

Anibal Sanchez has been awful to start the season as noted by his 6.90 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. He also has just 23 K across his first 30 IP. While he has reached this total in four of six starts this season, he will be facing a Phillies team that is only striking out 21.7% vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks, which ranks seventh in baseball. They are also walking at a clip of 10.4% vs. righties over that same span, which could get Sanchez into trouble as he is currently allowing nearly three BB/9.

Zach Eflin has been solid to begin the season as he has posted 37 K across his first 27 IP. While he will be facing a Nationals team that has only struck out 19.8% of the time vs. righties in the last two weeks, he should be able to go deep enough to reach this total. He has gone over the total in every single start this season as well. If the Nationals trot out a right-handed heavy lineup, Eflin should be in even better shape as he has struck out 23 of the 61 righties he has faced.

 

More or Less Contest - Juan Soto more than 1.5 hits/walks

Juan Soto more than 1.5 hits/walks - While Eflin has been very solid to begin 2020, left-handed hitting has been somewhat of an issue as he has allowed a .372 BAA. Soto is hitting .338 with a .456 OBP vs right-handed pitching the season and he has also gone over this total in five of his previous 10 games. Add in the fact that the Phillies have one of the worst pens in baseball, and the over looks like a solid play here.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, August 31st - Monkey Knife Fight

Several teams have now finished more than half of their 2020 seasons, but the season is still relatively young with no teams having played more than 35 games. At the player level, no pitcher has thrown more than 52 innings yet this season, and the small sample of performance has resulted in some attractive DFS opportunities.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Monday features a slate of 11 MLB games, including several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest #1

Marco Gonzales less than 3.5 strikeouts, Mike Trout more than 1.5 total bases.

Marco Gonzales less than 3.5 strikeouts:

Four strikeouts is a low total for a game, but Gonzales has failed to hit that mark in one-third of his starts so far this season and struck out three or fewer batters in 12 of his 34 starts last year. To make matters worse, the Angels represent a poor matchup for Gonzales. Los Angeles is a top-10 team by strikeout rate so far this season with a 22% mark, and match up well against Gonzales’s arsenal. Gonzales tends to rely on his cutter and changeup for strikeouts, but the Angels have been one of the better teams against those pitches this season with a combined 13% swinging-strike rate. As a result, it seems unlikely that Gonzales will manage to collect four or more strikeouts on Monday.

Mike Trout more than 1.5 total bases:

Trout has posted an xSLG above .600 in each of the past two seasons, and he’s posted a .643 mark so far this season. Further working in Trout’s favor is that he’s going up against a pitcher with a career .429 xSLG in Marco Gonzales, and although Trout has been slightly worse against southpaws than righties over his career, Gonzales is unlikely to neutralize the 29-year-old. Once Gonzales leaves the game, Trout will get to face a Seattle bullpen that’s allowed a .480 SLG to opposing hitters so far this season, so Trout should have little trouble collecting at least two total bases on Monday.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest #3

Anthony Rendon more than 1.5 total bases, J.P. Crawford less than 1.5 hits/walks.

Anthony Rendon more than 1.5 total bases:

The logic for Rendon is similar to that of Trout, except that Rendon is a slightly worse hitter. Even so, Rendon posted a .601 xSLG last season and has posted a .491 xSLG so far this season. More than half of Gonzales’s pitches are either fastballs or cutters, pitches against which Rendon owns a .520 combined career slugging percentage. Like Trout, Rendon will likely have an opportunity to face a struggling Seattle bullpen, further bolstering his chances of picking up at least two total bases.

J.P. Crawford less than 1.5 hits/walks:

Crawford owns a solid .347 OBP for the season, but Angels scheduled starter Jaime Barria is a poor matchup for the 25-year-old. Nearly half of Barria’s pitches last season were sliders, which Crawford owns a career .278 OBP against. If Barria gets knocked out of the game, then Crawford will bat against a Los Angeles bullpen that has allowed a .321 OBP so far this season. As a result, it seems unlikely that Crawford will reach base more than once on Monday.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Main Games Star Shootout: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest #2

Keston Hiura more than 1.5 total bases, Freddie Freeman more than 1.5 hits/walks

Keston Hiura more than 1.5 total bases:

Hiura has underwhelmed so far this season with a .411 slugging percentage and a .405 xSLG, but Pirates starting pitcher Trevor Williams represents a strong matchup for the 24-year-old. Even in his down year, Hiura has posted a .465 SLG against fastballs and a .750 SLG against sliders, pitches which Williams has thrown at 44% and 27% rates so far this season, respectively. The Pittsburgh bullpen isn’t particularly intimidating either, with the unit posting a .420 SLG for the season so far. As a result, Hiura should manage to pick up at least two total bases on Monday.

Freddie Freeman more than 1.5 hits/walks:

Freeman has been characteristically excellent so far this season, taking a .306/.417/.559 slash line into Monday’s game. Red Sox probable starter Colten Brewer has been awful so far this season with a .316 xBA and a .577 xSLG, so Freeman should have little trouble reaching base against the 27-year-old. Brewer rarely lasts late into games though -- he hasn’t thrown more than five innings in a game this season -- so Freeman should see plenty of at-bats against a Boston bullpen that’s allowed opposing hitters to post a .356 OBP so far this season. Those pitchers should combine to give Freeman plenty of opportunities to reach base, making him worth betting on.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Friday, August 28th - Monkey Knife Fight

Although we have had some bumps along the way this MLB season, the show continues to move forward for the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, August 28th presents a big slate of games to choose from. We can look to attack the Pirates at Brewers and Indians at Cardinals.

Pirates @ Brewers: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Corbin Burnes more than 4.5 strikeouts and Derek Holland less than 4.5 strikeouts

Corbin Burnes will be facing a Pirates team that has posted a 26% k rate vs. right-handed pitchers over the previous two weeks, which ranks seventh-highest in baseball. Burnes has also reached this total in every single start this season, including striking out seven Pirates in his most recent start on the 23rd. Add in the fact that the Pirates are walking the least amount in baseball vs. righties in the previous two weeks (as noted by their 5.0% BB rate) and you have a sound play here.

Derek Holland has managed to go over this total by one strikeout in his previous two starts vs. the Brew Crew, but this time should be different. For starters, this will be the third time the Brewers have seen Holland, which should favor the hitters. Also, the Brewers have the ninth-lowest K rate vs. lefties over the previous two weeks with a rate of 20.3%. They are also walking at a 12.8% clip vs. lefties in that same span, which has them ranked fourth in the league. This will be a close play, but the under is where I would go.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

More or Less Contest: Luis Urias less than 1.5 hits/walks

Luis Urias less than 1.5 hits/walks: This seems like a relatively safe bet as Urias only has produced four walks since August 10th. He has also only gone over this total five times in the last 14 games, which should bode well for the less than. As an aside, he is also just 1/4 with no walks in his previous four AB vs. Holland this season.

 

Indians @ Cardinals: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Daniel Ponce de Leon less than 4.5 strikeouts and Triston McKenzie more than 4.5 strikeouts

This is a bit of a tough call on Ponce de Leon, but if recent trends show anything, it could be a short day for him. The Indians currently are posting a 21.0% K rate vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which is good for eighth-best in the league. They are also walking at a rate of 14.5% vs. righties in that same span, which is far and away the best mark in baseball. Ponce de Leon has struggled mightily with walks this season as he has given 10 free passes in his first 12 IP. This could get him in trouble early and is the main reason I like the under. He certainly has the stuff to K five Indians, but they have been getting much better in terms of strikeouts lately.

Triston McKenzie showed why he was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball last week when he struck out 10 Tigers across six innings. Tonight, he gets the Cardinals and the 4.5 total just seems too low for a pitcher with the stuff that McKenzie has. While the Cardinals are only striking out 21.1% vs. righties over the previous two weeks, they are only posting a 107 wRC+, which ranks them 16th in baseball. I think he lasts long enough to get to five and goes over the total.

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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Thursday, August 27th - Monkey Knife Fight

The MLB season continues to move forward and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, August 27th presents a slate of 15 games thanks in large part to the PPD of several games last, night resulting in doubleheaders today. A couple of the games we can look to take advantage of include the A's at Rangers and Phillies at Nationals.

 

Athletics @ Rangers: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Jordan Lyles less than 4.5 strikeouts and Chris Bassitt more than 4.5 strikeouts

Jordan Lyles has been awful to start the 2020 campaign as noted by his 9.25 ERA across his first 25 IP. He will be facing an Oakland team that has posted a wRC+ of 111 vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks, which ranks 13th in the league over that span. They have also posted an 11% BB rate vs. righties, which has them ranked fourth in the league over that span. This could prove to be an issue for Lyles as he has walked 13 hitters already to begin the season. He also has only managed to eclipse this K total in just one of his first six starts, and even then, he only reached five strikeouts.

Chris Bassitt is in a solid spot heading into tonight's game. The Rangers are posting a K rate of 26.4% vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks, which ranks them fifth-worst in the league over that span. They are also only posting a wRC+ of 60, which has them ranked third-worst over that same span. This tells me Bassitt is unlikely to get into trouble often and should be able to go over the total. He has also eclipsed this total in three of his six starts.

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More or Less Contest - Marcus Semien more than 1.5 hits/walks

Marcus Semien more than 1.5 hits/walks - Semien has been hitting pretty well over the previous week as he has posted a .279 AVG and has paired that with four BB and only four K across 28 AB. Not only does he get to face Jordan Lyles in this game, but he will also face a Ranger pen that has posted a 4.87 ERA and 1.41 WHIP thus far in 2020. They are also tied for fourth in the league in BB with 67 across 112.2 IP. Semien has also reached this total in each of his previous three games.

 

Phillies @ Nationals: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Max Scherzer more than 7.5 strikeouts and Spencer Howard less than 4.5 strikeouts

Max has been a bit up and down to begin the season, but he has had some monster performances and reached double-digit strikeouts in three of his first six starts. While the Phillies are posting a modest 21.3% K rate vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, they have not faired well on the whole against Max. The current Phillies that have faced Scherzer combine for a 38.2% K rate, which certainly lends to the over here. As aforementioned, Max has three games of double-digit strikeouts and this could be another one. I would expect this total to jump to 8.5 before the first pitch.

Spencer Howard has struggled early this season as he has posted an ERA over six and a WHIP over two thus far. He gets a tough matchup against the Nationals tonight and is likely to go under the total. The Nationals are not striking out as evidenced by their 18.6% K rate vs. right-handers across the previous two weeks. This mark ranks fourth-best in baseball and is a big reason I like the under here. Howard has also failed to reach this total in two of his first three starts, which came against teams that K at a much higher rate than the Nationals (with exception to the Mets).

 

More or Less Contest - Juan Soto more than 1.5 hits/walks

Juan Soto more than 1.5 hits/walks - Juan Soto should not have an issue getting over this total vs. Spencer Howard and the Phillies' pen. Howard has been especially bad vs. left-handed hitters as he has allowed a .423 BAA as well as a 9.00 ERA and four BB across facing just 30 batters. Soto is also destroying right-handed pitching as he has posted a 1.318 OPS across his first 45 AB. He has also eclipsed this total in seven of his previous 10 contests. The Phillies pen is also one of the worst in the league as they currently hold a 7.52 ERA and 1.92 WHIP across their first 81.1 IP.

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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, August 24th - Monkey Knife Fight

Monday marks the beginning of the sixth week of the MLB season, and many teams are now nearing the halfway point in their seasons. 30 games is still a small sample for most metrics, though, so fantasy players should still rely on multiple season's worths of data (when possible) when making DFS decisions.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Monday is a relatively quiet MLB day with nine games on the slate, but there are several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

A's @ Rangers: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest #1

Lance Lynn more than 6.5 strikeouts, Jesus Luzardo more than 5.5 strikeouts

Lance Lynn more than 6.5 strikeouts:

Lynn has been great so far this season with six or more strikeouts in each of his first six starts, and the Rangers have let him go deep into games as he’s thrown more than 100 pitches in all of his starts as well. Lynn tends to rely primarily on an elite fastball (54% usage rate last season, 57.5% this year) to rack up strikeouts as the pitch posted an impressive 16% swinging-strike rate last season and has been strong again so far this season with a 13.7% mark. The A’s are a worse than average team at making contact against fastballs with a 10.4% swinging-strike rate against the pitch this season, so Lynn should be able to pick up at least seven strikeouts on Monday.

Jesus Luzardo more than 5.5 strikeouts:

Now fully stretched out, Luzardo threw 92 pitches in his last start -- an impressive seven strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks. Luzardo generates strikeouts with a dominant slurve, and the pitch should be a weapon against a Texas squad that has posted an 18.3% swinging-strike rate against sliders so far this season. Luzardo is also a heavy sinkerballer with the pitch representing more than a third of Luzardo’s pitches so far this season, and although sinkers are far from a weakness for the Rangers (.517 xwOBA against sinkers so far this season), the team isn’t particularly dangerous against the pitch either. As a result, Luzardo should be able to collect at least six strikeouts against the Rangers on Monday.

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More or Less Contest #2

Matt Olson less than 1.5 hits/walks, Joey Gallo more than 1.5 total bases

Matt Olson less than 1.5 hits/walks:

Olson is a remarkably poor fastball hitter with a .330 OBP and a 14.1% swinging-strike rate against four-seamers for his career. That’s bad news for his expected performance on Monday, as he’s slated to hit against a pitcher with an excellent fastball in Lance Lynn. If the A’s manage to break into the Texas bullpen then Olson has a solid chance of getting on base as the unit has allowed a .336 OBP for the season, but it’s hard to see Olson reaching base more than once even with the mediocre Texas bullpen, especially considering that the Rangers are comfortable letting Lynn work late into his starts.

Joey Gallo more than 1.5 total bases:

It’s generally a bad idea to bet against Gallo getting fewer than 1.5 total bases in a game given that he’s posted an xSLG significantly above .500 in each of the past two seasons, and that holds for Monday’s matchup. Gallo has posted an OPS above 1.000 against sinkers in each of the past three seasons plus a 1.455 mark so far this season, giving him a good chance to pick up at least two total bases against Luzardo, who has thrown his sinker more than 35% of the time so far this season. Gallo is significantly less effective against sliders (Luzardo’s second most used pitch), but Luzardo probably won’t last more than six full innings on Monday, giving Gallo at least one or two at-bats against an Oakland bullpen that’s struggled to contain home runs so far this season with 20 allowed over 105.1 innings. All of that makes Gallo picking up at least two total bases worth betting on.

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Marlins @ Nationals: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest #1

Pablo Lopez more than 4.5 strikeouts, Austin Voth less than 4.5 strikeouts

Pablo Lopez more than 4.5 strikeouts:

Lopez has had only one start with fewer than five strikeouts this season, and the Nationals do not appear likely to stop Lopez from collecting at least five strikeouts on Monday. Lopez has been great so far this season with a 2.42 ERA, and he’s done it with a 26% strikeout rate backed by an impressive 14.7% swinging-strike rate. Lopez’s changeup does the most damage with a ridiculous 25% swinging-strike rate so far this season, and it should play fairly well against a Nationals team that’s posted a near-15% swinging-strike rate against changeups so far this year. Not to be forgotten, Lopez’s fastball is also strong with a 15% swinging-strike rate this season, though the Nationals have been considerably more effective against fastballs this year with an 8.5% swinging-strike rate against the pitch. With all of that in mind, Lopez should manage to strike out at least five batters on Monday, making him worth betting on.

Austin Voth less than 4.5 strikeouts:

Voth has struck out more than three batters in only one start this season, and the Marlins are a poor matchup for the 28-year-old. Voth does most of his damage with a curveball that posted a 20% swinging-strike rate last season, but it’s been hittable so far this season with an 11.34% mark. To make matters worse, the Marlins have posted an excellent 6.7% swinging-strike rate against curveballs so far this season, so it’s unlikely that Voth will generate many whiffs on Monday. Combined with the fact that Voth doesn’t offer a ton of length and hasn’t thrown more than 86 pitches in a start this season, the Marlins’ ability to hit curveballs makes Voth picking up at least five strikeouts unlikely.

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More or Less Contest #2

Trea Turner more than 1.5 hits/walks, Jesus Aguilar more than 1.5 total bases

Trea Turner more than 1.5 hits/walks:

Turner owns a strong .364 OBP for the season so far, including a decent .313 OBP against changeups for his career and a solid .386 OPB against sinkers (Lopez’s third most used pitch). That gives Turner a good but not great chance of reaching base against Lopez, but he’ll also get to face a Miami bullpen that’s allowed a .348 OPB for the season, bolstering his chances of reaching base more than once on Monday. For what it’s worth, Turner has also been hot since the start of August with a .309 batting average and a .390 OBP, and Monday’s matchup against the Marlins shouldn’t slow him down.

Jesus Aguilar more than 1.5 total bases:

I’m not in love with the Turner leg of this prop, but the inclusion of Aguilar makes the prop worth betting on. As much as Voth’s curveball is the key to his strikeout potential, it’s his second most used pitch behind his fastball, which he throws nearly 60% of the time. Aguilar has never had trouble hitting fastballs with a .565 SLG against the pitch for his career, along with a .258 ISO. Voth’s fastball has been clobbered so far this season with a .623 xSLG, so Aguilar should have little trouble getting at least two bases even when considering that Voth’s fastball was significantly more effective last year with a .382 xSLG. 

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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Friday, August 21st - Monkey Knife Fight

Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, August 21st presents a big slate of 14 games to choose from. We can look to attack the Phillies at Braves and Twins at Royals.

 

Phillies @ Braves: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Aaron Nola more than 5.5 strikeouts and Max Fried more than 4.5 strikeouts

Simply put, the total here is too low for Aaron Nola. It should likely be at least 6.5 and perhaps even 7.5. He has eclipsed the six strikeout total in every single start this season and now he faces a Braves team that struggles vs. right-handed pitching. The Braves currently rank fifth-worst in baseball with a 26.1% K rate vs righties. This is a great number to get on Nola.

Max Fried's number of 4.5 is a little tighter, but he is the Braves horse and will have plenty of opportunities to reach this total. He has reached this total in four of his five starts this season. He has also already faced these Phillies in 2020 and managed to post six strikeouts in the contest.

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More or Less Contest: Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases

Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases: Harper has been crushing left-handed pitching to start the season as noted by his 1.472 OPS across his first 18 AB. He has also reached this total in seven of his last 10 games and is 7/23 with a double and two HR in the last seven days. Add in the fact that he is 3/10 with two bombs off Fried in his career and you have a solid prop.

 

Twins @ Royals: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Jake Odorizzi less than 5.5 strikeouts and Danny Duffy more than 4.5 strikeouts

Jake Odorizzi is capable of achieving this total as he struck out six Royals in his last start and the Royals rank 10th-highest in the league with a K rate of 25.2% vs. right-handers, but I don't feel comfortable betting the more than here. This will be the third time the Royals have seen Odorizzi since August 8th, and that can't work in the pitcher's favor.

Danny Duffy has started strong in 2020 by striking out 28 batters across his first 25 innings. This includes a dominant performance against the Twins last week in which he struck out eight. While I do not like the fact that the Twins will be seeing him so soon after the previous meeting, the total is set low enough that I think he can achieve it. The Twins are only posting 85 wRC+ vs. southpaws, so Duffy should be able to last long enough in this one to get to five as well.

 

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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Thursday, August 20th - Monkey Knife Fight

Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, August 13th presents a slate of 13 games for us to choose from. The first game we will examine is the Indians at Pirates.

 

Indians @ Pirates: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Shane Bieber more than 6.5 strikeouts and Trevor Williams more than 3.5 strikeouts

Shane Bieber has been an absolute machine to start the season as he has 54 strikeouts in his first 34.2 IP. He has also struck out at least eight in every one of his starts this season. Tonight, he faces the Pirates who strike out at a clip of 24.4% vs. right-handed pitching, which ranks 13th-highest in the league. This prop total should likely be set to somewhere around 8.5, so get the 6.5 while you can.

Trevor Williams is not known as a high strikeout pitcher, but he has gone over this total in three of his four starts this season. The Indians have also not been great vs. right-handed pitching as they have posted a strikeout rate of 24.9%, which ranks 11th highest in the league. They also are not scoring vs. right-handed pitching as they have a wRC+ of just 80, so Williams should be able to keep himself in the game long enough to achieve the total in this contest.

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More or Less Contest - Carlos Santana more than 1.5 hits/walks

Carlos Santana more than 1.5 hits/walks - Here we are again looking at a Santana hits and walks prop. Santana has stayed in the groove as he has reached this prop in seven of his last 10 games. He has also posted 27 BB on the season, which leads the league, and is the main reason this prop is so attractive. He also has tremendous splits at PNC Park where he has an OBP of .425.

 

Dodgers @ Mariners: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Clayton Kershaw more than 5.5 strikeouts and Yusei Kikuchi more than 3.5 strikeouts

While Clayton Kershaw is not as dominant as he once was, he should be able to take down six Mariners tonight. He has managed to strike out at least six batters in every start thus far in 2020 and is going against a Mariners team that is not very good against left-handed pitching. The Mariners currently rank fifth-worst in the league with a 26.2% K rate vs. lefties and also rank 29th in wRC+ with a mark of just 65.

Kikuchi's prop total is a little tighter, but he should be able to achieve it as the Dodgers have also struggled vs. left-handers this season. They currently rank 16th-worst with a K rate of 22.4% and also rank 10th-worst in wRC+ with a mark of just 82. Kikuchi has also reached this total in two of his three starts and missed it the third time by just one strikeout.

 

More or Less Contest - Kyle Seager more than 1.5 total bases and Mookie Betts more than 1.5 hits/walks

Kyle Seager more than 1.5 total bases - Kyle Seager has been crushing left-handed pitching to begin the season as he currently boasts a 1.090 OPS with a HR and two doubles in just 19 AB. He also posted a .946 OPS vs. lefties in 2019 across 130 AB, so this could be a developing trend.

Mookie Betts more than 1.5 hits/walks - Mookie Betts has started the season very hot as he is currently boasting a .398 OBP. He has reached this total in six of his last 10 games as well. The Mariners pen is also one of the worst in the league, so he will have plenty of good spots to reach the total in this one.

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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, August 17th - Monkey Knife Fight

The high number of seven-inning doubleheaders is going to lead to some interesting DFS results this season, particularly for pitchers. Monday's slate of games only includes one doubleheader, though, so fantasy players can feel comfortable relying on relatively "normal" analysis when looking for opportunities on Monday.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Monday features 11 full games and two seven-inning doubleheaders, including a few games with attractive props at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

Padres @ Rangers: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Zach Davies more than 3.5 strikeouts and Shin-Soo Choo less than 1.5 hits/walks

Zach Davies more than 3.5 strikeouts: Davies looks like a new pitcher this year with a changeup-heavy pitch mix, and his adjustments have led to a career-high 21.2% strikeout rate. That’s not a high rate, but it’s enough to get Davies five or more strikeouts in three of his first four games this season, and he should be able to pick up at least four on Monday. The Rangers haven’t been particularly good against changeups so far this season with a 15.6% swinging-strike rate against the pitch, and they’ve posted a similarly not-great 13.1% swinging-strike rate against cutters (Davies’s third most-used pitch this season) so far this year. Davies should comfortably collect four strikeouts in five innings as a result, and he’ll likely last at least that long against the Rangers.

Shin-Soo Choo less than 1.5 hits/walks: As much as I love Choo for fantasy purposes, I don’t see him getting on base twice on Monday. Choo owns a combined career .325 OBP against changeups and cutters, so as long as Davies stays away from his sinker (which Choo tends to mash), he should manage to stop Choo from reaching base. Choo would then face a Milwaukee bullpen that’s allowed .290 OBP so far this season and should manage to keep the outfielder in check on Monday.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Padres @ Rangers: Home Run Derby Contest

Home Run Derby Contest: Joey Gallo, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado hit at least one home run.

Gallo is one of the best home run hitters in baseball, and he’s got a great chance of homering off of Davies on Monday. Changeups and sinkers account for about three-quarters of Davies’s pitches this season, and Gallo owns a combined career 7% home run rate against those pitches. Combined with the fact that Davies has induced a ground-ball rate under 30% this season and that Gallo owns a career 24.3% HR:FB, Gallo’s ability to hit well against Davies’s primary pitches makes him likely to homer on Monday.

Tatis comes into Monday’s game leading the major leagues in home runs with nine, and he’s set to face a pitcher with a near-50% fastball usage rate in Jordan Lyles on Monday. Roughly one in every 10 fastballs that Tatis sees winds up in the seats and Lyles hasn’t been especially good at limiting home runs over the past few seasons, making it a favorable matchup for Tatis. 

Machado isn’t nearly as dominant as Tatis, but he’s no slouch either. Machado’s career 6% home run rate against fastballs is solid, and he’s looked good so far this season with five home runs over his first 22 games. Machado is also an average hitter against curveballs (Lyles’s second most used pitch), providing somewhat of a hedge in case Lyles decides to rely less on his fastball on Monday.

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Mariners @ Dodgers: More or Less Contest

The pitching props in this one are a little too close to call, but the Corey Seager and J.P. Crawford props are extremely appealing.

More or Less Contest: Corey Seager more than 1.5 total bases and J.P. Crawford less than 1.5 hits/walks

Corey Seager more than 1.5 total bases: Seager has been fantastic this year with a .531 SLG and a .798  (yeah, .798) xSLG, and he goes up against Justin Dunn, who’s allowed a .449 SLG through his first four starts this season. Dunn’s pitch mix shouldn’t hurt Seager, either. Dunn almost exclusively throws a fastball and a slider, pitches against which Seager owns a combined career .529 SLG. Working even further in Seager’s favor is that the Seattle bullpen hasn’t been any better with a .471 SLG, so even if Dunn gets knocked out early, then Seager is still likely to see favorable matchups. This is probably my favorite individual prop of the night, and DFS players should be confident in Seager’s ability to collect two or more bases on Monday.

J.P. Crawford less than 1.5 hits/walks: Crawford has reached base frequently so far this season with a .391 OBP, but he’s never played particularly well against curveballs with a career .333 OBP against the pitch (.222 OBP so far this season), so Ross Stripling should manage to keep him from reaching base with one of the best curves in baseball. Once Stripling leaves the game, he’ll turn the ball over to a dominant bullpen that’s held opponents to a .266 OBP, and both Stripling and the Los Angeles bullpen are backed by an excellent defense that should make it even harder for Crawford to reach base. It’s unlikely that Crawford gets on base more than once on Monday as a result, making this prop an attractive opportunity.

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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Friday, August 14th - Monkey Knife Fight

Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, August 14th presents a big slate of 14 games to choose from. Some games we can try to take advantage of include the Indians at Tigers, Star Shootout, and Brewers at Cubs.

 

Indians @ Tigers: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Aaron Civale more than 4.5 strikeouts and Ivan Nova more than 2.5 strikeouts

Civale cost me from hitting on a big-ticket last Friday night, but I am willing to go right back to the well with him vs. the lowly Tigers. The Tigers are a team that strikes out 31.2% vs. right-handed pitching. This number is astronomical and it also ranks dead-last in baseball. Civale has racked up 23 K in his first 19 IP this season and has struck out at least five in every start thus far against teams that do not strikeout as much as the Tigers.

Ivan Nova is going to be a tight play, but the number is so low, that the more than is the only play here. He has gone at least five innings in every start this season and has managed to go over the total in two of his three starts. This matchup vs. the Indians is one where going over 2.5 should happen as long as he is in the game for four to five innings. The Indians have a K rate of 26.9% vs. right-handed pitching, which ranks them fourth-worst in the league. The only area where I draw some pause is with the Indians 12.3% BB rate vs right-handers. Nova has shown a penchant for walking hitters, so he will have to stay in the zone or Cleveland will get him in trouble early.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

Carlos Santana more than 1.5 hits/walks: Santana is a walking machine. He has 17 BB in his last 10 games and has gone over this total six times in those 10 contests. Any time I can get hits/walks prop with Santana, I always like to take the more than. He has also has posted a .381 AVG with 3 BB in 21 AB vs. Nova in his career.

 

Star Shootout: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest: Jacob deGrom less than 6.5 strikeouts and Gerrit Cole more than 6.5 strikeouts

DeGrom may have trouble reaching this total tonight. He is coming off a start in which he struck out six Marlins, but also complained about an issue with his finger that could have been the formation of a blister. While I am not quite sure what to make of the blister, it does sound like it could pose some risk and that is part of the reason I like the under here. The Phillies also have not struck out much vs. right-handed pitching to begin the season. On the whole, the Phillies have the best K rate in baseball vs. righties with a rate of just 17.3%. While they have missed several games, the rate tells me they are being patient at the plate as they also hold a BB rate of 9.9%, which ties them for 10th in the league.  DeGrom has also failed to reach this total in two of his four starts, and both games he reached the total came against the Braves who strikeout 26.1% vs. right-handers.

Fire up Gerrit Cole tonight vs. the Red Sox. Cole has gone over this total in two of his four starts, but now has a matchup vs. the Red Sox who K a lot vs. right-handed pitching. The Sox currently rank sixth-worst in the league with a 26.5% K rate vs. right-handed pitching. They also are not walking enough to make Cole pay for any mistakes as they boast a rate of just 7.9%, which ranks them 21st in the league.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Brewers @ Cubs: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest: Brandon Woodruff more than 5.5 strikeouts and Tyler Chatwood more than 4.5 strikeouts

The Brewers and Cubs will meet tonight in a series that pits two teams who strike out a ton vs. each other. Woodruff has gone over this total in two of his four starts, however, one of these starts was not against the Cubs. In that matchup, he just missed the total by one, but I think he can achieve six tonight. The Cubs strike out at a rate of 26.5% vs. right-handed pitching, which is fifth-worst in baseball. It should also be noted that the Cubs' hitters have a combined 20 K in just 69 PA for a K rate of nearly 29%. The Brewers are even worse than the Cubs in terms of K rate vs. righties as they boast a rate of 28.7%, which ranks third-worst in the league. Chatwood has already faced this Brewers team in 2020 and managed to K them eight times across six innings. While he did have a massive hiccup against the Royals in his last start, I am guessing he reverts to a little more of what we saw in his first two starts tonight.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Thursday, August 13th - Monkey Knife Fight

Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, August 13th presents a smaller slate of just six games for us to choose from. One game we can try to take advantage of includes the Brewers at the Cubs.

 

Brewers @ Cubs: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Yu Darvish more than 6.5 strikeouts and Brett Anderson more than 2.5 strikeouts

Yu Darvish has gotten off to a solid start as he has posted a 2.12 ERA with 16 K in his first 17 IP. Tonight, he gets a solid matchup against the Brewers where he could certainly go over the 6.5 threshold as he did vs. Pittsburgh on July 31. The Brewers have struggled mightily vs. right-handers this season as they have posted a 28.3% K rate, which ranks second-worst in the league. They also have not gotten pitchers in trouble as they currently are posting just an 8.1% BB rate vs. righties, which ranks them 20th in the league. Look for Darvish to go over tonight.

While Brett Anderson is not much of a strikeout pitcher, I do like him to go over the 2.5 mark tonight. In his first two starts this season, he managed to strike out two in each contest vs. the White Sox and Reds. Both of these teams are better in terms of K rate vs. left-handed pitching than the Cubs. The Cubs currently rank sixth-worst in the league with a K rate of 25.4%. If he is stretched out and able to go four-to-five innings, he should certainly be able to achieve three strikeouts vs. this offense.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest - Javier Baez more than 1.5 total bases and Eric Sogard less than 1.5 hits/walks

Javier Baez more than 1.5 total bases - While Baez has not started the season red hot, he is still smashing left-handed pitching. In 2020, Baez has posted a .500 wOBA with three doubles off lefties. He has also posted a .960 OPS vs lefties since 2018 and should be a good bet to go over the total vs. Brett Anderson tonight.

Eric Sogard more than 1.5 hits/walks - Sogard has started the season ice cold as have much of the Brewers. In 2020, Sogard has a slash line of just .209/.370/.256. While the hits have not been there as much, the walks have as he currently has 10 walks on the season. He has also posted over this total in six of his first 15 games. Sogard also has decent numbers off Darvish as he has gone 5/18 with a .458 OBP. Add in the fact that the Cubs bullpen has been horrendous, ranking fourth-worst in the league with a 6.56 ERA, and I l like his odds to go over.



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Monday, August 10th - Monkey Knife Fight

It's hard to believe, but some teams are already a quarter of the way through the MLB season. Unfortunately, with the quarter-season mark sitting at just 15 games, early-season trends are difficult to rely on. Although that can make decisions difficult for fantasy players, it can also lead to opportunities for DFS players.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Postponements are continuing to wreak havoc on the schedule, but Monday features a solid slate of 10 games. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.

 

Nationals @ Mets: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Patrick Corbin more than 6.5 strikeouts and Steven Matz less than 4.5 strikeouts 

Patrick Corbin struck out at least seven batters in 20 of his 33 starts last season, and he’s struck out eight in each of his two starts so far this season. The Mets have managed to post a strong 10.5% swinging-strike rate for the season so far, but the team looked lost against Corbin’s slider in their last matchup on August 4, with the pitch generating a 27% swinging-strike rate. That’s just a one-game sample, but the Mets posted an 18% swinging-strike rate against sliders in general last season, and Corbin’s slider is arguably the deadliest in all of baseball. Corbin’s slider should allow him to pick up at least seven strikeouts, even if the Mets have generally been a strikeout-averse offense so far this season.

Steven Matz consistently averages around one strikeout per inning, but the Nationals have posted a strong 10.1% swinging-strike rate so far this season after posting an impressive 9.5% mark last year. Matz primarily relies on his changeup to generate whiffs, but the Nationals posted a better than average 13.9% swinging-strike rate against changeups last season, so Matz will probably strike out less than one batter per inning on Monday. Although the Mets have been letting Matz throw deep into games this season, he’s struggled with home runs and is likely to be knocked out before the sixth inning on Monday, making his strikeout total likely to fall below five.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest - Adam Eaton more than 1.5 hits/walks and Jeff McNeil less than 1.5 total bases

Adam Eaton less than 1.5  hits/walks - Eaton has been cold recently, but Matz is an excellent matchup for the 31-year-old. Sinkers and changeups accounted for more than 70% of Matz’s pitches last season (and even more so far this year), and Eaton owns a career .398 OBP against sinkers and a .312 OBP against changeups. Combined with Eaton’s consistently above-average walk-rate, his ability to hit Matz’s primary pitches make him likely to reach base at least twice on Monday.

Jeff McNeil less than 1.5 total bases - McNeil owns a career .459 xSLG and is facing a starting pitcher who hasn’t allowed a slugging percentage above .400 in a season since 2017. McNeil also faces a negative platoon split against Corbin, with McNeil's career SLG against southpaws dropping to .440 compared to .531 against righties. Even if Corbin is knocked out of the game, the Nationals bullpen has been strong so far this season, limiting opponents to a .221 batting average. McNeil wasn’t particularly good at hitting sliders last season, either, posting a .425 xSLG against the pitch. As a result, it’s unlikely that McNeil collects two or more total bases on Monday.

 

Diamondbacks @ Rockies: Home Run Derby Contest

Home Run Derby Contest - Trevor Story, Christian Walker, and Charlie Blackmon more than 0.5 home runs

Coors Field matchups are almost always worth betting on for home runs, and it’s hard to overstate the park’s effects. Despite posting the fourth-worst HR:FB in road games last season at 13%, the Rockies posted a high 17.5% HR:FB at home. Story, Escobar, and Blackmon all hit more fly-balls than ground-balls last season, and their matchups are strong as well. 

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

Story and Blackmon should have little trouble against Robbie Ray, who figures to rely primarily on his fastball and slider. Last season, Story posted a 93.2 mph average exit velocity against fastballs with an 89.6 mph mark against sliders, and Blackmon was similarly impressive.

Walker will face Jon Gray, who is also likely to rely largely on a fastball/slider combination. That’s good news for Walker, who posted a 93.5 mph average exit velocity against fastballs and an 89.4 mph mark against sliders last season. Further working in the hitters’ favor is that Ray and Gray have both posted higher-than-average HR:FB ratios in each of the past two seasons. At least one of the group should manage to hit a home run on Monday.

 



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MLB DFS Prop Picks for Friday, August 7th - Monkey Knife Fight

Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, August 7th presents a slate of 15 games for us to choose from. Boy, does that feel nice to say! Some games we can try to take advantage of include the Braves at Phillies, Indians at White Sox, and a Star Shootout Contest.

 

Braves @ Phillies: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Vince Velasquez less than 5.5 strikeouts and Kyle Wright less than 4.5 strikeouts

Velasquez has the ability to rack up strikeouts when he is in an optimal situation, however, Friday night is not optimal for him in any way. He will be going up against a Braves offense that is drastically reducing its K rate vs. right-handed pitching as they now stand at a rate of 26.2% and falling. The Braves also rank second in baseball vs. righties with a 129 wRC+ mark. Due to cancellations from Covid-19, this will also be Velasquez's first start since July 26th where he went just three innings, so there could certainly be rust to kick off in the early going. Kyle Wright is a young prospect who has a ton of talent. He reminds me a lot of a younger Trevor Bauer; he has great stuff, but often struggles to control it. This is noted by his seven walks allowed through his first six innings pitched. He faces an offense in the Phillies that is not striking out vs. right-handed pitching early in the season as they rank second in all of baseball with a rate of just 17.7%. While the sample size is smaller than most due to their cancellations, it is still a low rate overall. They also are posting the eighth-best BB rate at 11%, so they can likely make Wright pay when he loses guys in the count. Add in the 10th best wRC+ at 110 and the Phillies could get on him tonight.

 

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest - Freddie Freeman more than 1.5 hits/walks and Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases

Freddie Freeman More than 1.5 hits/walks - Freddie Freeman has been solid vs right-handed pitching as he has posted an OBP above .400 vs righties in three of the past four seasons with a .385 in the one season he did not reach .400. Velasquez has struggled vs. lefties as he has had over a five ERA to left-handed hitters in each of the past three seasons and posted a 5.37 FIP and four BB/9 in 2019. Freeman is also 9/27 off Velasquez for his career.

Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases - Left-handed hitters have absolutely terrorized Kyle Wright early in his career. This is noted by his 5.21 FIP in 2019 and 7.49 FIP so far in 2020. While the sample size is limited, the struggles cannot be denied. Harper has hit right-handed pitching well over his career and has posted an OBP of .385 and crushed 46 HR since 2018.

 

Star Shootout: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest - Dylan Cease less than 6.5 strikeouts and Matthew Boyd less than 6.5 strikeouts

Dylan Cease's total is about two strikeouts too high in my opinion. He has only struck out five batters across 8.2 IP to start the season, so why they placed him at 6.5 is a question mark to me. He does face the Indians, who have struck out at a rate of 27% vs. right-handed pitching, but they have also already faced Cease and only struck out once in 2.1 IP against him. They also were not confused by his pitch mix as they tagged him for four ER in that short start. Matthew Boyd faces a Pirates offense that has done VERY well vs. left-handed pitching to start the season. The Pirates rank fourth in baseball vs. lefties with a 16.7 percent K rate. They are also ranked sixth in baseball vs. lefties with a 137 wRC+ mark. This is a bad combination for Boyd, who has allowed eight ER and only struck out eight in his first 10 IP this season.

 

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox: More or Less Contest

More or Less Contest -  Dylan Cease less than 6.5 strikeouts and Aaron Civale more than 5.5 strikeouts

My rationale for going less on Cease is written above, but I also like pairing him with the more than 5.5 strikeouts for Aaron Civale. Civale has burst on to the scene in 2020 as a possible budding star in the very talented Indians rotation. He has started the season by striking out 18 batters across just 12 IP in two starts. One of those starts came against these same White Sox where he struck out nine batters across six innings. The fact that his total is this low just 10 days after dominating the Sox is puzzling. The White Sox also rank 11th-worst in baseball with a 24.9% K rate vs right-handed pitching, so the over certainly makes sense in this contest.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

More or Less Contest - Carlos Santana more than 1.5 hits/walks

Carlos Santana more than 1.5 hits/ walks - Santana has started the season slower than usual, but his ability to get on base is still prominent, which is why I always like him for these types of contests. In 2020, he is currently sporting a .386 OBP. Not bad for a guy who is still on the struggle bus and this is in large part because he has been able to draw 15 walks in his first 14 games.



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