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NFL Betting Picks For Week 7 (10/25/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Spreads

We had a solid 2-0 start last week after Detroit and Tampa bay did what they needed to do. Then I put too much trust in Andy Dalton to lead a new team and he let us down substantially. Dallas is in real trouble here if he can't figure it out, and that's a terrible thing considering the talent on that offense. Nonetheless, we move onto Week 7. I wasn't even sure if we'd get to this point in the season, but here we are!

  • Week 6: 2-1 (67%, +.85u)
  • 2020 Season: 10-7-1 (55%, +3.07u)

(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

 

Green Bay Packers (-3.5, -186) at Houston Texans

O/U: 57

As I called it last week, the Packers were going to struggle against Tampa Bay's defense. Sure, Aaron Rodgers and co. got up 10-0 early and then proceeded to give up 38 straight points for their first loss. Rodgers had been just about as perfect as you could be coming into that game, but he's ready to put the two picks behind him. To help him, the team needs to get back to running the ball. After rushing for 417 yards through the first two games, they've rushed for just 280 in the last three combined. It would help if they decided to stick with their workhorse Aaron Jones (five touchdowns), but they've been sprinkling in Jamaal Williams quite frequently. Davante Adams is back, so when they do pass, expect Rodgers to look his way almost exclusively.

This Texans team is a mess and a half. Having Deshaun Watson has kept this team respectable from an offensive perspective, one man and a few of his offensive teammates can only foot so much of the bill. David Johnson has been mediocre at best, but that's more an estimation of the offensive line. Will Fuller is off to a great start but has one of the tougher matchups in the league this week with Jaire Alexander. On the other end, the Texans house one of the worst defensive units, allowing 30 ppg and over 420 ypg. Green Bay will certainly be a test, considering the Houston allowed over 600 yards against Tampa Bay.

Green Bay is 7-4 against the spread after a loss since the 2018 season, and while that's not otherworldly, it does show that they come ready to play following a defeat. Rodgers is still an elite quarterback and last week was a strange occurrence for the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Green Bay has better weapons and a better defense, albeit not great themselves. While this is a very popular public play, I love the Pack in a bounce-back effort. If you’re the type of gambler to fade the public, I would completely understand the rationale as well.

Pick: Green Bay -3.5 (-106, Fanduel) 1 Unit

 

Kansas City (-9.5, -435) at Denver Broncos

O/U: 46

The Chiefs took reign over the Bills thanks to a stout run game in a rain-soaked Monday Night Football game. Tallying 245 yards on the ground means Patrick Mahomes doesn't have to be the star and savior, and that's what makes them so dangerous. The gunslinger averages 280 ypg with 16TD and just one interception and has his full arsenal of weapons. This will also be the first time we see Le'Veon Bell in a Chiefs uniform, so it will be interesting to see how they utilize him with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1.

The Broncos actually have one of the best defenses in the league through their first five games. They rank in the Top 10 in both rush and pass defense DVOA. The problem is their offense's ineptitude has them on the field constantly; their opponents average over 32 minutes of possession when Denver is host, compared to just 28 when on the road. They held the Patriots in check last week, but yet again, their offenses inability to sustain drives score (just 12 points!!) hampered them. Considering the Broncos allow just 22 ppg, there is room for improvement here with a better offense, but sadly it's tough to expect from Denver.

Kansas City might be a little timid with displaying too much of Bell in his first game, but that's not an issue when you have Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. They're averaging 27.7 ppg on the road thus far but I see them coming out and firing against their divisional opponent. I'd trust the full game over, but Denver's offense scares me.

Pick: Kansas City Team Total Over 27.5 (-104, Draftkings) 1 Unit

 

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -177) at Arizona Cardinals

O/U: 56

Fresh off their bye week, Seattle has scored at least 31 points in four of their five games and is true contender for the NFC Championship at 5-0. Russell Wilson makes defenses pay and his weapons Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are part of that with nine combined touchdowns. The fun part of this offense is that Chris Carson hasn't even gotten started. The team averages just 115 ypg on the ground, but keep in mind Carson was dealing with injuries prior to their Week 6 bye. This is a team that has averaged over 130 rushing ypg over the last two seasons, so expect the run game to see an uptick relatively soon. Defensively, Seattle has been stout against the run, allowing just 110 ypg, but they have some real issues against the pass, allowing 370 ypg, the worst mark in the league.

Arizona is fresh off of two blow out wins against garbage teams, the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys, sans Dak Prescott. While they've scored 30 and 38 in their last two games, respectively, they averaged 24.5 ppg in their first four contests. Kyler Murray is such an exciting dual-threat player but still has some work to do, as evidenced by the six interceptions. He's led the offense to average 402.5 ypg, good for fifth in the NFL. The run game has been at the forefront, as they've tallied at least 109 yards in every game so far. In terms of passing, naturally, DeAndre Hopkins is the only passing option worth noting as he's accounted for over 40% of the team's passing yards through six games. On the defensive end, the Cardinals have been better at home allowing just 319 yards of offense but keep in mind that was against Washington and Detroit. Patrick Peterson is a shell of his former self and they're also without top pass rusher Chandler Jones.

The Cardinals have had a pretty easy schedule so far playing Washington, Detroit, and the Jets. While the Seahawks schedule hasn't really been much better, their 5-0 record would be more worrisome if the talent on the team wasn't as strong, but this unit was expected to contend for the big one. This is a primetime spot that Seattle is used to, and against an inferior team, give me the Seahawks.

Pick: Seattle -3.5 (-106, Draftkings) 1 Unit



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Week 7 - Monkey Knife Fight

Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL Season! The season is moving right along and has gotten very exciting and that means our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, NFL DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in a couple of these games including the Lions at Falcons, Panthers at Saints, and Seahawks at Cardinals.

Lions @ Falcons Fantasy Challenge

Recommended Prop Pick:

Kenny Golladay, Todd Gurley, and Calvin Ridley more than 59.5 fantasy points

This game should see plenty of fireworks considering the total is 55. Kenny Golladay is likely to be the beneficiary of several targets in this game as he is currently earning seven targets per game. He will be going up against a defense that is allowing nearly 45 fantasy points to the wide receiver position on the season, which ranks fifth-worst in the league. They do this by allowing nearly 218 receiving yards per game to wideouts and have also given up seven receiving touchdowns to the position, which is tied for fifth-worst in the league.

Todd Gurley is not someone I would normally recommend, but I like him in this spot vs. the Lions. He is currently averaging nearly 17 carries and two receptions per game, which is solid volume for a running back. He will be facing a Lions Defense that has allowed an average of 30 fantasy points per game to the running back position, which is ranked sixth-worst in the league. They have allowed an average of over 5.2 yards per carry and have also given up five scores on the ground to backs. Add in the fact that the Falcons are also favored in this game and Gurley could get some added carries near the end of the game.

Calvin Ridley is an absolute beast and should be included in this prop. He is currently averaging 9.5 targets per game and that should bode well for him vs. the Lions. The Lions are allowing over 40 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, which ranks seventh-worst in the league. They have given up six receiving touchdowns, which is especially significant as this is where Ridley has shined by hauling in five touchdowns through the Falcons' first six games.

Play the Fantasy Challenge Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Panthers @ Saints More or Less Contest

Recommended Prop Pick:

Drew Brees less than 280.5 passing yards and Teddy Bridgewater more than 275.5 passing yards

Is Drew Brees capable of going over this total? Sure. Is he going to have to go over this total at home against the Panthers? Not likely. The Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in football. They are currently allowing 4.85 yards per carry to running backs. They are also allowing nearly 104 rushing yards per game to backs, which tells me this is likely to be the Alvin Kamara and even the Latavius Murray show. The Saints should come out in this game looking to establish the run at home early and often and should be able to find plenty of success with this method of attack. The Saints are also 7.5 point favorites as the game currently sits, which is a pretty big number. It likely means the Saints won't be forced to throw late in order to attempt a comeback.

Bridgewater will likely have to throw for the Panthers to find success in this game. New Orleans has a strong run defense as they are currently only allowing running backs to rush for 88 yards per game. They are also only allowing 3.6 yards per carry. This strength does not carry over to their passing game, however, as they are allowing quarterbacks to throw for over 255 yards per game. As mentioned above, the Saints are 7.5 point favorites, which means Carolina will likely be trying to catch up for quite a bit of time in this game. If this happens, Bridgewater has the weapons in Mike Davis, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson to throw over this total much the way he did vs. Tampa Bay in a Week 2 contest, which saw the Panthers lose 31-17.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

Seahawks @ Cardinals More or Less Contest

Recommended Prop Pick:

Russell Wilson more than 295.5 passing yards and Kyler Murray more than 267.5

This game has all the makings of a shootout with two bad defenses and a game total of 56. Russell Wilson has been on absolute fire in 2020 as he is currently averaging over 300 passing yards per game. He has two of the best weapons in the game at wide receiver in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, which only helps build a case for him in this matchup. While the Cardinals are only allowing 248 passing yards per game, they have not faced an offense anywhere near as reliant on the pass as this Seahawks offense. Arguably the best quarterback this Cardinals team has faced was Matt Stafford in Week 3, and he promptly threw for 270 passing yards. Wilson should be able to get over the total in this spot.

Kyler Murray will be facing the worst secondary in the league and must be played as a more than in this spot. The Seahawks are currently allowing quarterbacks to throw for a whopping 377 passing yard per game. They are also allowing wide receivers to go off for over 274 receiving yards per game. Kyler Murray should be able to have a monster game throwing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. It should also be noted that the Seahawks only allow running backs to rush for 75.6 yards per game, which means the offense should rely heavily on the arm of Murray in this game.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 



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Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 7

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Hits and misses were the theme of Week 6, with Derrick Henry and Ronald Jones II coming through huge for us at the RB position, while players like DeVante Parker and Jonnu Smith hurt us due to injuries. Week 7 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 7. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

 

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 7 Picks

Josh Allen - BUF @ NYJ ($7,700)

Josh Allen's evolution was one of the hot topics over the first month of the season, but he's now logged a couple of relatively disappointing outings in his last two starts. Allen gets the mother of all bounce-back matchups against the abysmal New York Jets this week. He destroyed the Jets in Week 1, posting 33.2 DK points on 312 yards passing and 57 yards rushing that resulted in 3 TDs. There's reason to believe Allen will get back on track against a New York defense that's allowing opposing QBs to complete passes at nearly a 72% clip and is relinquishing over eight yards per attempt. Another reason to consider the Bills signal caller - especially in GPPs - is that his ownership should be noticeably depressed with all the other eye-catching QB options that are available on this slate.

Kyler Murray - SEA @ ARI ($7,100)

While Josh Allen will be contrarian, Kyler Murray will be chalk city this week. However, it's hard to argue with the play, as Murray's combination of production and matchup is hard to ignore. The second-year QB leads the position in rushing yards with 370 and has accounted for 6 TDs on the ground this season. He's also proven efficient when asked to throw the ball, posting 1,487 yards and 10 TDs. The matchup is a great one, as the Seahawks have been routinely shredded by opposing QBs. Seattle has allowed the fourth-most DK points in the NFL to the QB position and ranks 31st in the league in passing yards allowed. This game comes in with a "high and tight" O/U and point spread...and there's lots of paths that lead to this one turning into a true shootout.

Joe Burrow - CLE @ CIN ($5,500)

Those of you looking to pay down at the QB position might want to consider Cincy rookie Joe Burrow. The LSU product has looked every bit the part of a number-one draft pick, despite, ya know...playing for the Bengals. Burrow has thrown for 1,617 yards - the eighth-most in the NFL - and toasted the Browns for 316 yards and 3 TDs in their Week 2 matchup. Speaking of TDs, the rookie hasn't thrown for one in his last two games, so I think we can expect some positive regression in that department at some point. As for the matchup, it's an intriguing one, as the Browns rank bottom-five in the NFL in completions, passing yards, and passing TDs allowed.

 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 7 Picks

Alvin Kamara - CAR @ NO ($7,900)

Alvin Kamara in Week 7 reminds me a lot of Derrick Henry in Week 6...we have an uber-talented player in an absolute smash matchup. Yes, of course he could "fail", but why overthink it?

Kamara has posted 150.6 DK points this season - the most by a RB - and has combined for 20-or-more carries/targets in every Saints game to this point. He'll square off against a Panthers Defense that's allowed the second-most DK points in the NFL to the RB position, are tied with Houston for the most TDs allowed (8) in the league, and - perhaps most importantly in Kamara's case - are relinquishing a ridiculous 85.5% catch rate to RBs out of the backfield.

Aaron Jones - GB @ HOU ($7,200)

Speaking of Derrick Henry's Week 6 matchup...Aaron Jones wins the prize egg this week, as he's set to square off against a struggling Houston Texans Defense. The Texans contained Henry for a decent portion of the game last week before eventually allowing him to explode for 212 yards on the ground. It was the fourth time this season they've allowed a 100-plus yard rusher. Houston ranks dead last in the NFL in DK points, rushing yards, and rushing TDs allowed to the RB position. It's an appetizing matchup for Jones, a player with a lower floor than most "elite" RBs, but a guy that carries as much upside as anyone in the league, as evidenced by his 48.6 DK point performance against the Lions in Week 2.

Jerick McKinnon - SF @ NE ($5,800)

The revolving door at the RB position continues for the San Francisco 49ers, as Raheem Mostert went down yet again last week. With Tevin Coleman on IR, Jerick McKinnon will once again be asked to step into the lead role for this Niners backfield. He performed well in two games as the top option in San Fran, rushing for 92 yards and 2 TDs on 28 carries, and catching 10 of 12 targets for 82 yards, in Weeks 3 and 4. There are a couple of reasons to be skittish here...Niners rookie JaMychal Hasty received nine carries when Mostert left last week and the matchup against the New England Patriots is a tough one. Taking those drawbacks into account, McKinnon is an explosive, dual-threat back with a sub-$6k price tag. He's worth a long look.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 7 Picks

DeAndre Hopkins - SEA @ ARI ($8,200)

I'm normally a fan of paying down at WR, but as with Alvin Kamara this week, some spots are just too good to ignore. Arizona's DeAndre Hopkins is such an example. Hopkins tops the WR salary scale, but draws what can only be described as a smash matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this week. Seattle's secondary is a shell of its former self. The team that was once upon a time a matchup that we went out of our way to avoid with WRs is now one that we want to target. The Seahawks rank dead last in the NFL in DK points, receiving yards, and catches allowed to the WR position. It will be tough for them to slow down Nuk, a player that has been outstanding in his new Arizona home, and has went for over 130 receiving yards in three of the Cards six contests on an average of 12.2 targets per game. Seattle is a true funnel defense that's allowing just 3.73 yards per carry on the ground, so we can expect the Arizona passing attack to be deployed often in this matchup.

Terry McLaurin - DAL @ WAS ($5,800)

I honestly feel as though I could include Terry McLaurin in this column every week. He remains frozen in this mid-to-high-$5k price range, despite being one of the most explosive receivers in the game. McLaurin's production is undoubtedly hurt by both Washington's QB situation and overall offense, though his volume has stayed consistent despite the revolving door at QB. McLaurin has been targeted 58 times this season (11.6 targets per game), which is good for the fifth-most targets in the league. He and the WFT offense draw a "circle it on your calendar" matchup against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7. The 'Boys struggles on defense this season have been well documented, but just to reinforce how bad it is, this Dallas unit ranks in the bottom-five in the NFL in DK points, receiving yards, TDs, and yards per target allowed to the WR position. We're targeting upside at WR and "The Jet" has both the talent and usage needed to crush his salary in this matchup.

Mike Williams - JAX @ LAC ($4,700)

This year has been the weirdest one that many of us have ever seen, so in true 2020 fashion, we're talking about the LA Chargers passing attack. A combination of injuries to Tyrod Taylor, Austin Ekeler, and a large portion of the LA defense has forced rookie Justin Herbert into action earlier than expected. The results have been surprisingly-good, at least from a fantasy perspective. Mike Williams has a pretty non-existent fantasy floor, but I love his upside in GPP formats. Williams had a nice game LA's last time out, racking up 109 yards and 2 TDs on five catches in an overtime loss to New Orleans. Keenan Allen left that game early, so Williams did see an uptick in usage, but the upside is there even if Allen returns this week. His juicy aDOT of 18.2 is one of the highest in the league and he's accounted for 27.7% of the Chargers air yards this season. He'll face a Jags secondary that's allowing nine yards per catch to opposing WRs. This definitely isn't a "safe" play, but is one that could pay big dividends in large-field tournaments.

 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 7 Picks

Travis Kelce - KC @ DEN ($6,300)

If you've played NFL DFS regularly this season, chances are you're pretty frustrated with the TE position. I know I certainly am, as the position has consistently been a weak spot in my lineups. Hopefully, we can change that this week, as we finally get Travis Kelce back on the main slate. The KC tight end has been the most consistent producer at the position this season, churning out an average of 19.3 DK points per game. That consistency can be attributed to his steady role in this high-powered Chiefs offense. Kelce leads the NFL in TE targets (53), receptions (37), yards (470), and TDs (5). The matchup against Denver isn't a standout one, but the Broncos have allowed 73% catch rate to opposing TEs this season. Kelce's talent and usage in this offense make him virtually matchup proof and a solid bet to end any drought you might be experiencing at the TE position.

Austin Hooper - CLE @ CIN ($4,000)

Remember Austin Hooper? You know, the guy that signed the highest TE deal in history over the offseason. Nobody would blame you if you forgot about Hooper, as he was basically non-existent in this Browns offense for the first month of the season. However, Cleveland must have realized how much they're paying the guy, because he's actually getting some looks as of late. Hooper has been targeted 23 times over Cleveland's last three games, snagging 15 catches for 143 yards and a TD. This production is what fantasy forecasters had in mind for him this year and he has a great chance to keep it going this week against the Bengals, a team that ranks 30th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to the TE position.



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NFL DFS Value Plays for Week 7 (Premium Content)


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NFL DFS Stacks: Week 7 (Premium Content)


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NFL DFS RB and WR Anchors For Week 7 (Premium Content)


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Thursday Night Football DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings

We move onto week 7 where we get a riveting NFC East showdown as the New York Giants take on the Philadelphia Eagles. This game has an under/over of 45 with the Eagles being favored by 4.5 points.

In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on October 22nd (Week 7). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with myself and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!

 

DFS Quarterbacks

As both teams are in contention for the NFC East title, their two young quarterbacks will need to bring their "A" game in order for their team to pull out the win on Thursday night. Daniel Jones will be leading this Giants offense and while he hasn't been amazing from a fantasy perspective, the Giants offense as a whole has struggled partly due to them losing their best offensive weapon in Saquan Barkley early on in the season. Jones has thrown for over 1,200 yards through six games but is struggling from protecting the football as he has thrown six interceptions and only three touchdowns. The Eagles have a top 12 defense against the pass (allowing 233.2 passing yards per game to opponents) but have only recorded two interceptions on the season so far.

Carson Wentz is the more seasoned quarterback and should be able to produce more points than Daniel Jones. Wentz has thrown for over 1,400 yards through six games and has eight touchdown passes while also throwing nine interceptions. Wentz has had a revolving door when it comes to his receivers as he has been unable to throw to a consistent stable group all season long which has led to his high turnover number. When looking back at his past four weeks, Wentz has eclipsed 20 DK points in three of those games while rushing for three touchdowns in four of those games. The Giants are allowing opponents to throw for 242.3 yards per game which ranks 17th in the league so this looks to be a solid match for Wentz.

Analysis: Wentz is the safer option but both are viable in tournament builds. Only one QB should be used in cash lines but stacking them in the same line could be a tournament strategy on this slate.

 

DFS Running Backs

Both star backs for the Giants and Eagles will be missing this game so it looks like we will turn to their backups on the depth chart to roster for our showdown contests this week. The New York Giants lost Saquan Barkley early in the season and brought in free-agent running back Devonta Freeman to carry the rock for the remainder of the 2020 season. Freeman has seen an increase in touches as he has been inserted as the main back and has seen a combined 35 carries over the last two weeks. Behind Freeman are Wayne Gallman Jr. and Dion Lewis have both conceded carries to Freeman. Gallman has been more involved when compared to Lewis and looks to be the back-up running back in this Giants backfield. When looking at the matchup, the Eagles are allowing opponents to rush for 120 yards per game which ranks 20th in the league. If the Giants want to win this game, they should look to pound the rock early with Freeman.

Miles Sanders will be missing this game which means Boston Scott will absorb the lead back duties in his absence. Scott has served as the backup to Sanders all season long and has been involved in the passing game when he has seen the field which means he brings upside in full point per reception sites like DraftKings. Corey Clement will serve as the back up running back to Boston Scott and when Scott drew the start in week 1, Clement saw six total carries and two passing targets. The Giants have been stingy against opposing ground games as they rank eighth in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (106.5) so this looks to be a tough matchup for the Eagles rushing attack. If you do decide to roster an Eagles running back, the upside will come from the passing game by running underneath routes and dump-off passes from Wentz.

Analysis: Devonta Freeman and Boston Scott will both see plenty of carries in this game with Freeman having a better matchup. Both backs are viable for cash games due to the volume they will see. Their backups could be used in tournaments as value plays but they do come with risk.

 

DFS Wide Receivers

The wide receiver position on this slate is a tad underwhelming but there could be some good tournament plays on both sides of this game. For the Giants, they rely heavily on Darius Slayton and Golden Tate as their main receiving options. Slayton leads the team with 44 total targets and has close to a 20%team target share while Golden Tate ranks second of all Giants receivers in targets and receptions. CJ Board looks to be the third wide receiver that is utilized in this Giants offense but doesn't offer much upside since Jones looks heavily at Slayton and Tate.

The Eagles have struggled to have a consistent wide receiver group out on the field throughout the 2020 season. Travis Fulgham has emerged as a top target while both DeSean Jackson, Jalen Reagor, and Alshon Jeffery have all been out due to injuries. Fulgham has seen 23 total targets over the last two games and has posted three straight games of double-digit fantasy points while also recording a receiving touchdown in each game. Fulgham has become a go-to player for Wentz and is viable in all formats. Outside of him, John Hightower and Greg Ward have seen significant snaps and they form the strong receiving trio that the Eagles have been rolling out over the past several weeks.

Analysis: Fulgham and Slayton are the two best receiving options on the slate. Tate offers a solid floor that can be used in cash games while Ward and Hightower offer upside in tournaments.

 

DFS Tight Ends

Both teams have great receiving options at the tight end position when fully healthy. For the Eagles, Zach Ertz injured himself against Baltimore and is already labeled as out for the Thursday night game against the Giants. Back-up tight end Dallas Goedert has been on injured reserve since dislocating his ankle early in the season and while he is progressing well, there is some doubt that he will miss the Thursday night game as well. It seems as if former Green Bay Packers tight end Richard Rodgers will draw the start for week 7 and this is encouraging news as he saw over 60% of snaps in his last game played. If other Eagles receiving options are also out, Rodgers could see a bump in targets which increases his upside. The Giants have been a strong defense against opposing tight ends as they are allowing only eight fantasy points per game against the position so consider Rodgers a riskier tournament play that carries upside.

The Giants have one of the better overall tight ends in the game in Evan Engram but he has been off to a relatively quiet start to the 2020 season. Engram has only eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in one of his six games played and has only seen a combined five targets over his last two games played. On the flip side, he ranks second in total targets (35) on the Giants offense and is tied for the second-most receptions (18)on the squad as well. The Eagles have struggled against opposing tight ends as they are allowing the position to average 18.9 fantasy points per game.

Analysis: Engram looks to be the safer pick despite his recent stats. He draws a better matchup and is the better overall tight end in this game. Rodgers could have a decent game with the volume but the matchup is much tougher.

 

DFS Defense/Special Teams

With this game featuring a low total, both defenses could be in play. The Giants' defense is intriguing as they have recorded 15 sacks on the season and Wentz has been sacked 25 times through the first six games. When factoring in the pressure that Wentz could be under, the Giants could force several turnovers which makes them an interesting tournament play. On the other side of this game, the Eagles Defense has generated 21 sacks on the season and Daniel Jones has been sacked 17 times on the season. They too as a unit can generate pressure and force mistakes which also makes them a viable tournament option. For the kickers, Graham Gano has been fantastic for the Giants as he has connected on 15 out of 16 field-goal attempts and is averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game over his last four games played.

Analysis: Both defenses are in play as they have the ability to get to opposing quarterbacks and generate pressure/ turnovers. Graham Gano has been excellent for the Giants and is getting plenty of chances so he is viable in all formats. 

 

Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs!



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Thursday Night Football Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight: Eagles vs Giants

The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the New York Giants.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

 

Eagles vs Giants: More or Less Contest

Thus far, both of these defenses have played particularly well against the pass. Neither squad is allowing more than 235.5 yards per game through the air. Despite that, I’m taking the over for Carson Wentz. He’s only cleared this mark twice in six games, but this is also the best matchup he’s had thus far. Outside of cornerback James Bradberry, this Giants Defense leaves much to be desired. I think he can sling the ball around a little bit.

In order to keep up with Wentz, Daniel Jones is going to have to throw the ball, and that’s easier to do on this Philadelphia defense. Similar to the Giants, they only have cornerback Darius Slay that scares you in the secondary. The over/under for this game is set at 45, and that feels low despite how beaten up these two rosters are. I’m expecting a little bit of a shootout between the two sides.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Eagles vs Giants: More or Less Contest

Tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are still out. Running back Miles Sanders will not be playing, and the wide receiver room has been zapped of talent. Fulgham has 23 targets in his last two games, and he’s caught at least six balls in each game. This number feels pretty easily achievable.

In his last two games, Freeman has hardly been efficient, but he’s getting plenty of volume with 35 carries over the last two weeks. He’s cleared 60 in each game, and I think he’s going to get the volume to clear the mark set for him again. This is a good Eagles front, but with Malik Jackson out with an injury, I think they can get enough push to get him over this relatively low bar.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Eagles vs Giants: More or Less Contest

  • Carson Wentz OVER 18.5 fantasy points
  • Daniel Jones UNDER 16.5 fantasy points
  • Travis Fulgham OVER 13.5 fantasy points

I think the Eagles are going to be able to move the ball through the air, and with Sanders out, I think we see even more work from Wentz. On top of his work through the air, I think we see Wentz as a key part of the ground game this week. He’s scored a rushing touchdown in four out of six games, and that can help buoy a day for fantasy.

Choosing the under on Jones here comes exclusively from his inability to take care of the ball. In 19 games under center, he has thrown 18 interceptions, and he has 22 fumbles charged to his name. Even against an Eagles Defense that isn’t the most talented, they have the players to take advantage of sloppy play.

Similar to his receptions prop, I’m comfortable taking Fulgham at this number because there is little to no competition for him to compete with. It does rely on him breaking a big play or catching a touchdown, but with the volume he’s going to get, I think he’s able to get there.

 

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Eagles vs Giants: Rapid Fire Contest

I’m doubling down on my calls. For all of the Eagles’ struggles, I truly believe they’re the better team in this matchup, and they can make more plays happen. I think Freeman’s going to have a slow night, and his entire fantasy value is going to be tied to his ability to get in the endzone. I don’t think that happens. Wentz has struggled from a football perspective, but he’s still maintaining more fantasy value than Jones. That’s all that matters here.

Play the Rapid Fire Contest on Monkey Knife Fight



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Thursday (10/22/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

The NFC East has the makings of one of the worst divisions in the modern history of the NFL and Thursday night brings an NFC East matchup between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. The teams may not be great but there are still chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Giants are 1-5, coming off their first win of the season, 20-19 over the Washington Football Team. With star running back Saquon Barkley injured, the Giants are having a really hard time moving the ball – their average of 4.7 yards per play is only better than the Washington Football Team and the New York Jets.

It’s not like the season has been a raging success for Philadelphia either. The Eagles are 1-4-1 and just lost starting running back Miles Sanders to a knee injury and tight end Zach Ertz to an ankle injury and they join an ever-growing list of injured Eagles. That doesn’t leave quarterback Carson Wentz with an ideal supporting cast but this is the NFC East, no one is running on all cylinders.

Nevertheless, here are some angles to consider for Thursday night’s NFL game on Monkey Knife Fight:

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N.Y. GIANTS-PHILADELPHIA

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Carson Wentz LESS THAN 247.5 PASSING YARDS

The Eagles quarterback is averaging a modest 233.5 passing yards per game this season and his offense is depleted by injuries. He has thrown for 248 or more yards twice in six games. The Giants are average in terms of pass defense, allowing 235.5 passing yards per game and 6.5 net yards per pass attempt. Unless the Eagles somehow show that they are more explosive offensively, it could be hard for Wentz to reach what seems like an entirely reasonable number.

Daniel Jones MORE THAN 230.5 PASSING YARDS

Danny Dimes threw for more than 240 yards in his first two starts of the season but has struggled to throw the ball in the past four weeks, reaching a season-low 112 passing yards against Washington last week. Philadelphia’s defense is better than average against the pass, allowing 229.7 passing yards per game and 6.0 average net yards per pass attempt. With some expectation that the Giants may be trailing, maybe he bounces back and reaches this achievable threshold.

Travis Fulgham MORE THAN 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The real wildcard in the Philadelphia offense is Fulgham, a 25-year-old who had zero catches on three targets for the Lions in 2019 but has suddenly landed in the Philadelphia lineup and has put up 18 catches for 284 yards and three touchdowns on 26 targets in the past three games. He looks like he’s going to be Carson Wentz’s favorite target.

RAPID FIRE

Travis Fulgham -1.5 fantasy points vs. Devonta Freeman

Two players who have been thrust into prominent roles. A series of injuries opened the door for Fulgham to step into the Eagles lineup and he’s been so productive that he’s now indispensable. Freeman was a free agent waiting for the right opportunity to come along when Saquon Barkley tore his ACL. Freeman rushed for a season-high 61 yards last week but it has been a grind – he’s averaging 3.2 yards per carry.

Boston Scott +1.5 fantasy points vs. Darius Slayton

Philadelphia’s starting running back, Miles Sanders, left last week’s game with a knee injury and that opens the door for Scott to be Philadelphia’s lead back, with Corey Clement providing support in the backfield. Slayton is averaging 67.7 receiving yards per game and he has scored three touchdowns in six games. He also happens to be nursing a foot injury so if he’s slowed down at all that could open the door for Boston Scott to escape with a win in this matchup.

 



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6 - Monkey Knife Fight

Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL Season! The season is moving right along and has gotten very exciting and that means our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, NFL DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

Let's take a look at some of the props Monday Night Football has to offer this week.

 

Chiefs @ Bills

More or Less Contest(s)

Recommended Prop Picks:

Patrick Mahomes more than 319.5 passing yards: This should be a solid matchup for Mahomes on Monday night. The Bills are currently allowing quarterbacks to throw for 274 passing yards per game, but are only giving up 83 rushing yards per game to running backs. Mahomes is averaging nearly 295 passing yards per game. He has also put up some monster games of 302, 385, and 340 passing yards. I expect this to be another one of those games.

Josh Allen less than 290.5 passing yards: This is a tough one for me, but I am going to roll with the less than because this number is so high and has jumped nearly fifty yards over the weekend. The Chiefs have not been allowing quarterbacks to torch them. They are only allowing close to 240 passing yards per game. While Allen is averaging nearly 318 passing yards per game, this is one of the best passing defenses he will have faced thus far.

Stefon Diggs more than 80.5 receiving yards: Diggs has gone over 80 receiving yards in four of the Bills' five contests. He is the most targeted receiver on the team with 51 targets through their first five games. This should be a great spot for him, especially considering the Bills are four-point underdogs. This means Allen could be throwing often and Diggs should certainly be the recipient of those targets.

Travis Kelce more than 6.5 receptions: Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the league and has been targeted a whopping 46 times through the Chief's first five games and has caught at least six passes in all but one contest. This is very bad news for the Bills who rank dead last in the league in receptions allowed to the tight end position. They have given up a total of 39 receptions through the first five games, which averages out to nearly eight per game. Kelce should do very well under these circumstances.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

Reception Collection Contest

Recommended Prop Pick:

Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs more than 19.5 receptions

Each of these guys is in a prime spot on Monday night. We mentioned Diggs and Kelce's stats above, which is why I certainly like them in this spot. Those two alone could very easily haul in 16 passes between them in this game. Tyreek Hill is the next guy I want in this prop. He is averaging seven targets per game and is hauling in over four receptions per game. He will be facing a Bills Defense that is allowing over 13 receptions per game to wide receivers. Given that Hill will be the most targeted receiver on the Chiefs Monday night, I think he helps push this prop over the total.

Play the Reception Collection Contest on Monkey Knife Fight

Cardinals @ Cowboys

More or Less Contest(s)

Recommended Prop Picks:

Andy Dalton less than 288.5 passing yards: Andy Dalton steps in making his first start for the Cowboys and he may find it tough sledding moving the ball through the air. The Cardinals are only allowing quarterbacks to pass for 244.6 yards per game. That being said, they are allowing running back to rush for nearly 107 yards per game. Given that it is Dalton's first start for the Cowboys and the Cardinals struggle vs. the run, it makes sense for the Cowboys to come with a gameplan that features Zeke more so than the passing game.

Kyler Murray more than 288.5 passing yards: Kyler Murray has a great opportunity to carve up this Cowboys Defense much the way he carved up the Jets Defense a week ago. The Cowboys secondary has struggled mightily in 2020 as they are allowing over 180 receiving yards per game to the wide receiver position. They will have a hard time covering DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk in this game. The Cardinals have also struggled to establish the run game from the backfield as Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds combined are only averaging 82 rushing yards per game. While Murray has been very effective with his legs in 2020, the Cowboys have been solid thus far against mobile quarterbacks as they have only given up 52 rushing yards while facing the likes of Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones.

Ezekiel Elliott more than 89.5 rushing yards: The Cowboys will likely come out with a plan to pound the rock in this game in order to take some of the pressure of Andy Dalton in his first start. The Cardinals have struggled vs. the running back position in 2020 as noted by 106.8 rushing yards per game allowed. They are also giving up nearly 4.5 yards per carry, which should mean solid numbers for Zeke and he could finally get over that 100-yard threshold.

Play the More or Less Contest on Monkey Knife Fight



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monday (10/19/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

For the third time in six weeks this season, there will be two NFL games played on Monday night. It’s easy to get used to this kind of action and it also means twice as many chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The first game sees the defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs visiting the emerging Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs are 4-1 but coming off a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. The Bills are also 4-1 and coming off a lopsided loss at Tennessee.

The later game has the 3-2 Arizona Cardinals, third place in the NFC West, visiting the Dallas Cowboys. America’s Team is 2-3 yet still in first place in the NFC East. Both teams have some significant injuries to overcome.

Arizona has lost star pass rusher Chandler Jones for the rest of the season due to a torn biceps while Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is done for the season after breaking his ankle against the Giants in Week 5. Andy Dalton takes over at quarterback for the Cowboys.

Here are some angles to consider for yet another Monday night NFL double-header on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

KANSAS CITY-BUFFALO

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 319.5 PASSING YARDS

Mahomes is averaging 294.8 passing yards per game this season, throwing for more than 320 yards in two of five contests. The Bills Defense hasn’t been up to expectations to this point and still they have allowed 263.2 passing yards per game and 6.7 net yards per pass attempt. The status of injured Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White could play a big part in this but it’s asking a lot for Mahomes to throw for 320-plus.

Josh Allen LESS THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS

While Allen is enjoying a breakthrough campaign, averaging 317.8 passing yards per game, the Chiefs aren’t going to be easy pickings. Kansas City has allowed just 225.5 passing yards per game, 6.5 net yards per pass attempt, so Allen will have to work for whatever he can accomplish in this game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire LESS THAN 72.5 RUSHING YARDS

The Chiefs rookie is facing the prospect of losing playing time to newly-signed Le’Veon Bell but not this week. Even so, Edwards-Helaire is averaging 68.8 rushing yards per game and has been held under 65 yards in each of the past four games.

RAPID FIRE

Stefon Diggs -6.5 receiving yards vs. Travis Kelce

Diggs has made a seamless transition to the Bills offense and is averaging 101.8 receiving yards per game, a lofty total that is out of reach for tight ends, including Kelce, who is averaging 81.0 receiving yards per game. There may be an extra look or two towards Kelce with wide receiver Sammy Watkins out but not enough to prefer him over Diggs this week.

Cole Beasley +0.5 receptions vs. Tyreek Hill

Hill is a playmaker but he’s not a high-volume receiver. He hasn’t had more than five catches in any game this season and that makes him a risky selection as the favorite against Beasley, Buffalo’s effective slot receiver. Beasley is averaging 4.8 receptions per game so getting an extra half reception gives him a worthwhile lead in terms of value.

 

ARIZONA-DALLAS

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Andy Dalton LESS THAN 288.5 PASSING YARDS

This is a great opportunity for Dalton, the longtime Bengals starter who steps in as the Cowboys quarterback in the wake of Dak Prescott’s injury. Last season, in Cincinnati, Dalton passed for 289 yards or more four times in 13 games.

Kyler Murray LESS THAN 288.5 PASSING YARDS

The Cardinals quarterback is doing more in his sophomore season but he’s averaging 259.8 passing yards per game even after going for 380 yards against the Jets last week. Dallas’ defense has been pretty much average against the pass so far, allowing 248.6 passing yards per game and 6.8 net yards per pass attempt.

DeAndre Hopkins MORE THAN 6.5 RECEPTIONS

D-Hop had a season-low six receptions last week but is still averaging nine catches per game since landing in the desert. He’s easily the No. 1 receiver on the Cardinals depth chart and should be busy against Dallas.

Amari Cooper MORE THAN 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The Cowboys’ top receiver was invisible last week but had more than 80 yards receiving in the first four games of the season. Arizona has good numbers against the pass, allowing just 222.4 passing yards per game, 6.1 net yards per attempt, and while losing Chandler Jones likely means that the Cardinals won’t be as effective when rushing the passer, they will provide a tough test for the Cowboys. Still, Cooper has been a consistent threat for Dallas and should remain that way even after the quarterback change.

RAPID FIRE

Kenyan Drake +30.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott

Drake has been a disappointment for the Cardinals this season but is still active enough that he has averaged 62.8 rushing yards per game. Elliott has not been thriving in Dallas either, averaging 72.8 rushing yards per contest. Maybe there is a bigger role for Zeke with Dak Prescott sidelined but banking on more than a 30-yard gap against Drake is a big ask.



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Monday Night Football DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings

Week 6 of the NFL season is coming to a close but don't fret because we have yet another Monday Night Football doubleheader on tap this week with two exciting matchups between the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC and the Cowboys and Cardinals in the NFC. Vegas likes both of these games to be high scoring and so there should be no shortage of fantasy points.

Today I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for Monday Night Football on October 19th, 2020 (Week 6). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on FanDuel.

If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with myself and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!

 

DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes

This slate is absolutely loaded with offensive talent, but Mahomes is easily still the best QB on the slate. He's facing a Bills secondary that was handled by Ryan Tannehill and the Titans receivers last week and I expect a big bounce-back performance from the Chiefs this week after losing to the Raiders last week.

The Bills are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs this season and Mahomes will look to lead this KC offense up and down the field with his strong arm and scrambling ability that allows him to extend plays and find open receivers. He's always a threat to run for a TD, too. Paying up for him and pairing him with a few pass-catchers is a good idea on this slate.

Kyler Murray

While Josh Allen is always a compelling option, I am going to bypass him today and grab some shares of Kyler Murray and the Arizona passing game against what has been a horrible Cowboys Defense this season. Dallas is allowing a 107.9 QB rating to opposing passers this season, fifth-worst in the league. Meanwhile, Murray is averaging nearly 28 DraftKings points per game this season and continues to pile up rushing yards and rushing touchdowns (5), giving him an excellent floor and ceiling.

 

DFS Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott

Zeke is the easily the class of this set of running backs I'd make every effort to get him in your lineup if possible. With Dak Prescott out for the season, expect the Cowboys to attempt to lean on Elliott and the running game as much as possible to keep Andy Dalton from having to throw 40+ times. Zeke has a nice matchup here as the Cardinals have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs and he's pretty game-script proof, too, as he's been averaging nearly five catches per game and is very much involved in the passing game.

Zack Moss/T.J. Yeldon

I'm looking for value somewhere on this slate and there really isn't another lead back that I feel like paying for with CEH having a tough matchup, Kenyan Drake stuck in a timeshare with Chase Edmonds, and Buffalo's starter Devin Singletary coming off a lackluster game against the Titans. Moss should be good to go for this game and is the Bills' best runner between the tackles. He also is likely to get touches down around the goal line, too. Keep an eye out for any limitations on his workload as they could ease him back into action. Yeldon is a dart throw as he had a random good game against Tennesee with Singletary struggling, but Moss's return could ruin him.

 

DFS Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins

I am not sure how much analysis you need here but Hopkins is one of the league leaders in targets, catches, yards, and is averaging nearly 24 DK points a game even while scoring two touchdowns this season. He's facing a Cowboys team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers this season and there's really no reason not to think that Nuk won't get his against this Dallas secondary.

Christian Kirk

If we are looking for another receiver to stack with Kyler, then Kirk is probably my favorite. He caught five of his seven targets for 78 yards last week and is a safer play than Andy Isabella or Larry Fitzgerald. Kirk operates in the slot a good bit and the middle of this Cowboys' defense is definitely a soft spot that Murray would be wise to exploit.

Mecole Hardman

The Chiefs will be without Sammy Watkins this week and therefore we can give both Hardman and Demarcus Robinson a hard look as both speedsters should get a nice uptick in snaps and hopefully targets. Hardman is the guy I want the most shares of on this slate. His big-play ability on deep routes down the field and kick-returning abilities give him a ceiling that you won't find in any other cheap receiver. He's already found the end zone twice this season and averaging nearly 15 yards per reception.

 

DFS Tight Ends

Travis Kelce

Kelce is the best tight end in the game and is one of Mahomes' top targets week in and week out. He's quite possibly my favorite play on the entire slate here as he has a clear mismatch against the Bills linebacker corps. Buffalo's a bit banged up on defense and is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Jonnu Smith exploited them last week and Kelce should absolutely feast over the middle of the field in this game. Don't get cute, Kelce should be in 100% of your lineup and could double up or even triple up every other tight end's output on this slate.

 

DFS Defense/Special Teams

Chiefs Defense

The Chiefs defense really let me down last week as the Raiders piled up 40 points on them and they actually put up a negative number. They couldn't stop the run and couldn't get off the field on third down. Before that outing against Las Vegas, however, they had not allowed a team to score more than 20 points and they've created 8 turnovers this season. The Bills run game is not good, so if KC can stop the run then they should be able to pin their ears back and put pressure on Josh Allen, who can be guilty of trying to extend plays too long which results in sacks or ill-advised throws that turn into picks.

 

Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs on two-game slates!



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Sunday Night Football DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings

We get a fun Sunday Night Football matchup that highlights an NFC West showdown featuring the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. This game has an under/over of 49.5 with the Los Angeles Rams favored by 3 points.

In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football slate on October 18th (Week 6). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with myself and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!

 

DFS Quarterbacks

This seems to be a more lopsided choice when comparing the two quarterbacks that are in play for this showdown. Jared Goff has gotten off to a great start to his 2020 campaign as he has completed over 72% of his passes for over 1,000 yards and six total touchdowns. Goff has done a great job limiting his interceptions through the first quarter of the season as he has only been picked off twice so far this season. In Goff's career against the 49ers,  he has played six games and thrown for 1,184 yards and 12 touchdowns while only getting picked off three times. The San Fran defense has been very good against the pass (even with all of the injuries) as they are allowing opponents to throw for 215 yards per game. While they have been stingy defensively, Goff has weapons around him that could make him a viable option on this slate.

On the other side of this game, San Francisco has been struggling over the past couple of weeks due to inconsistent play and injuries. Jimmy Garappolo had a solid showing in his first two games of the season as he averaged 195 passing yards and threw for four touchdowns while not throwing a pick. He was then injured and had to miss some time and looked really rough in his last start against Miami. He has not done well in his career against the Rams as he has averaged 261 passing yards per game but has been sacked eight times and picked off five times in a three-game span. The Rams passing defense has looked very strong this season as they are allowing opponents to throw for only 197 yards per game which is the second-best in the league.

Analysis: Goff looks to be the stronger play when comparing him to Garoppolo. He is showing better form and just has an overall better history against his opponent. Jimmy G. is a tournament play but does carry risk as he was benched in his most recent game.

 

DFS Running Backs

While the running back situation for both teams could seem a tad messy, there are some viable fantasy plays that we will be able to find and use for this showdown slate. For the 49ers, they got a huge boost in the running game with Raheem Mostert being back and healthy in the lineup. Mostert was off to a strong start in his first two weeks despite getting injured early on against the NY Jets. He saw 11 carries in his return for 90 yards and while that doesn't seem like a ton, the game script of them falling behind to the Dolphins surely played into that. Mostert is averaging 79 rushing yards per game and while he only has one rushing touchdown, he is often utilized in the passing game as well which helps his fantasy stock even more. When healthy, he is the clear cut de-facto running back for this San Fran team and makes for a great play in all formats. Jerick McKinnon seems to have slid into the backup running back role and should see some time in the passing game or even when Mostert needs a break so if looking for a value tournament play, McKinnon would be the move.

The Rams look to have a bit of a crowded backfield as they are working Cam Akers back into the fold from his injury that has kept him out a few weeks. Malcolm Brown has seen the steadiest snap count of the group but Darrell Henderson Jr. leads the running back group when it comes to total touchdowns scored. When glancing at the depth chart, it looks as if Henderson Jr. has asserted himself as the top running back as of right now and it is hard to argue as he has seen 43 carries over the last three games played while Brown has seen only 24 carries over the same span. Henderson Jr. is the safest play while Brown and Akers jockey for position as to who will be the backup running back for the time being.

Analysis: Mostert is the strongest play from this group as he has seen the steadiest snap count (when healthy) and has been the most reliable fantasy back out of this group. Henderson Jr. makes for a solid play and could be used in cash games but the crowded backfield hinders his upside. Brown and Akers look to be tournament plays in hopes they vulture a touchdown away from Henderson Jr.

 

DFS Wide Receivers

The receiving groups for both sides can be pretty explosive which makes these guys great fantasy targets in this matchup. The Rams have one of the best-receiving tandems in the league in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Kupp has become a great security blanket for Goff while Woods has become the explosive downfield playmaker in this Rams offense. Kupp leads the team in receptions (28) and yards (363) while Woods carries the highest DK average of 16.1 DK points per game. Outside of the main two receivers for the Rams, they have veteran Josh Reynolds and rookie speedster Van Jefferson Jr. Reynolds is seeing more consistent snaps and is getting more consistent targets, specifically over the last three games (13 targets over the last three games).

The 49ers are finally starting to get their receiving room healthy which will only aid the offense as a whole. Kendrick Bourne has seen a steady amount of targets through the first five weeks which can also be attributed to the injuries to Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle. Brandon Aiyuk has seen the second-most receiving targets through the first five weeks (22) with 19 of those coming over the last three games played. Deebo Samuel is finally healthy after missing the first three weeks due to an injury and saw 11 targets through his first two games (eight total targets in his most recent game played).

Analysis: With several options at the receiver position, you can play several of them in cash and feel comfortable. Kupp and Woods are the best options for the Rams and both can be deployed in cash games. Samuel and Aiyuk are the bright spots in the 49ers receiving room and could be cash game viable as well. Reynolds Jr, Jefferson, and Bourne will see snaps but remain tournament plays due to their inconsistency in fantasy scoring.

 

DFS Tight Ends

One of the top tight ends will be featured on this slate and it will be hard to not want to press the lock button on George Kittle. The 49ers tight end is widely considered to be a top-three tight end in the game and is one of the key focal points in the San Fran offense. Kittle holds the largest target share on the team with a 16.76%  and has the most targets on the team with 29. This is even more impressive to think about since he has missed time already due to a knee injury. Kittle has racked up 24 catches on his 29 targets and leads all San Fran receivers in receiving yards (271). Kittle draws a favorable matchup against the Rams as he has averaged over five catches for 89.5 receiving yards per game while also hauling in three career passing touchdowns against the Rams Defense.

While tight ends aren't featured as much in the Rams offense as the 49ers feature theirs, they have a solid duo that most teams in the league would love to have. Tyler Higbee has been their primary offensive tight end weapon as he has recorded the third-most catches on the team (15) but leads the team in touchdown receptions (3). Gerald Everett is the other main tight end option for the Rams and while he doesn't quite see the same volume as Higbee, he has recorded a 90% completion percentage on passes thrown his way.

Analysis: Kittle is one of the top plays on the slate and is one of the best cash game and tournament picks on the slate. For the Rams, their duo of tight ends in Higbee and Everett are better off used for tournament lineups just with the lower floor they have compared to Kittle.

 

DFS Defense/Special Teams

This should be a good defensive battle as both defenses have played well so far this season. The Rams are holding opponents to just 18 points per game while the 49ers are holding opponents to just 22 points per game. The one major stat that jumps out in this matchup is that the Rams are tied for a league-leading high with 20 sacks and the 49ers are allowing 3.6 sacks per game. This could be very good for the Rams defense and they could be in strong consideration for cash games and even the captain spot in tournaments. With this also being a good defensive matchup, both Sam Sloman and Robbie Gould could get some opportunities if drives stall for their respective offenses.

Analysis: The Rams defense is in play for cash games while the 49ers Defense could be used in tournaments. Both kickers are viable in tournaments, especially if you're needing salary relief for your roster construction.

 

Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs!



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Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 6

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. It was a really nice slate for us in Week 5, especially at the WR position, as our highlighted players CeeDee Lamb, Robby Anderson, and Darius Slayton all killed it for us, while our sneaky pick of Teddy Bridgewater at QB also paid dividends. Of course not everything worked out, as Dak Prescott left early with a season-ending injury and our attempt to gain some floor at TE with George Kittle failed miserably. That's how it goes in NFL DFS kids. Week 6 is shaping up to be an interesting - though perhaps frustrating - slate. As I write this, the juiciest matchup of the week - ATL vs MIN - is facing the possibility of being delayed due to COVID-19 concerns! As a result, I'll leave Falcons and Vikings players out of this week's column, but will circle back around to that matchup in the Saturday Updates section, when we'll (hopefully) know more about the status of that game. Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 6. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

 

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 6 Picks

Matthew Stafford - DET @ JAX ($6,300)

What a difference a week makes! We go from a plethora of options in Week 5, to very few legitimate ones in Week 6. There are several elite QBs available on this slate, but the problem lies in their matchups, as none of the available spots scream out as true slam-dunk situations.

One matchup that is juicy is Matt Stafford squaring off against the Jags. The Jacksonville organization is pathetic in several areas, but defending the pass has proven to be their most glaring weakness on the field this season. The Jags defense ranks dead last in the NFL in Yards Per Attempt (8.83), and stand 28th in the league in both passing yards and TDs allowed.

Stafford has yet to post a true "spike" game, but there are signs that it's coming. The Lions signal caller's Average Target Depth is 10.0 yards, which trails only Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins among QBs that have started every game for their team. He's also been boosted by the return of his top WR, Kenny Golladay, who has injected this Detroit offense with some life after missing the first two games of the season. The expected game environment is juicy, with both a tight point spread (DET -3.5) and high point total (54.0).

*SATURDAY UPDATE: A weird week at the QB position, as for the first time this season I find myself actually looking to pay down. With the ATL vs MIN game appearing set to go after some COVID concerns earlier in the week (we'll touch on several plays from this matchup), Kirk Cousins ($6.1k) immediately pops into consideration against an ATL defense that has allowed the most DK points in the NFL to the QB position. Taking Week 1 out of the equation, Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5.9k) is averaging 27.35 DK points over Miami's last four games and he squares off against a Jets secondary that is allowing 8.25 yards per attempt. Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill ($5.9k) continues to be relentlessly efficient and posted 30 DK points on just 28 attempts Tuesday night against Buffalo. The price is right...with volume being the only concern in a matchup against the Texans that figures to be a "ride Derrick Henry" game for Tennessee.

 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 6 Picks

Derrick Henry - HOU @ TEN ($7,300)

While there are very few slam-dunk spots at the QB position, there are some juicy matchups available for RBs this week. Tennessee's Derrick Henry has a dream "usage + matchup" situation against the Houston Texans. Henry has received a massive 101 carries this season, which ranks second in the NFL behind Josh Jacobs' 105 in total carries, despite the Titans only playing four games. His eye-popping carry per game average of 25.25 leads the league, while his 28 Red Zone rushing attempts is also atop the NFL.

Henry hasn't exactly been ultra-efficient - his average of 3.7 yards per carry is pretty pedestrian - but he should find some easy sledding this week against a Texans Defense that has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL (706) and is relinquishing a massive 5.19 yards per carry to the RB position - the fourth-highest average in the league.

James Robinson - DET @ JAX ($6,800)

We touched on this DET vs JAX matchup at the QB position with Matthew Stafford and James Robinson presents us with an opportunity to grab another piece of exposure in this game. The Lions have been brutally-bad against the run. Detroit has allowed an average of 32.8 DK points per game to opposing runners and is relinquishing a staggering 5.57 yards per carry on the ground, a mark that tied for worst in the league.

Robinson underwhelmed last week, posting just 11.0 DK points against Houston. However, his usage remained encouraging, as he toted the rock 13 times and was targeted seven times in the pass game. Volume is king in DFS and Robinson has now touched the ball 17 or more times in all five of Jacksonville's game this season. This matchup against Detroit is a juicy rebound spot.

Ronald Jones II - GB @ TB ($6,000)

Do any of you guys wanna join the #FreeRonaldJones campaign with me? Jones II is a talented back that has finally been given a chance to shine thanks to Leonard Fournette's absence and Tampa's banged-up receiving corps. He's made the most of the opportunity, rushing for over 100 yards in each of the Bucs' last two games, while also corralling nine of 14 targets. We're hoping that Jones II has worked his way into Bruce Arians' good graces with his performances over the last couple of weeks and that an expected-to-return Fournette will just be a footnote in this offense, as Green Bay offers a surprisingly good matchup. The Packers are allowing a very chunky 4.76 yards per carry to the RB position, and rank 31st in the NFL in both catch % and yards per target allowed to RBs.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Lots to unpack here at RB...we love Aaron Jones' ($7.6k) talent, but the matchup against Tampa Bay presents his biggest challenge to date. Alexander Mattison ($7.2k) feels like one of the larger decisions on this slate. With pricing delayed due to the Tuesday night game, DKings was able to adjust his price, which means we (thankfully) won't see a 70%-owned-$5k Mattison. He'll step right in to Dalvin's Cook role in a dreamy matchup against an ATL defense that's relinquishing nearly 140 total yards per game to the RB position. With some very good options available at RB this week, I'll neither be "all in" or "all out" on Mattison, but will definitely grab some exposure in this smash spot, while the RB on the other side of this matchup, Todd Gurley II ($6.3K), presents a unique pivot opportunity against a Vikes defense that allowed 561 yards on the ground this season. Carolina's Mike Davis ($7.0k) continues to produce "CMC Lite" numbers thanks to his huge role in this Panthers offense. The matchup against Chicago isn't great this week, but the volume/production is hard to ignore. On the other side of CHI vs CAR, David Montgomery ($5.8k) might not actually be good at football, but he's getting all the work he can handle out of the Bears backfield in the absence of Tarik Cohen and will square off against a Panthers Defense that is dead last in the NFL in DK points allowed the the RB position. Two strong standouts in the mid-$5k range are Antonio Gibson ($5.5k) and Myles Gaskin ($5.4k), players whose price tags don't really reflect the amount of volume they are consistently receiving in their respective offenses. With Denver's Melvin Gordon ($6.0k) now officially ruled "Out", Phillip Lindsay ($4.3k) becomes the most intriguing salary saver at the position.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 6 Picks

DeVante Parker - NYJ @ MIA ($6,300)

The ATL vs MIN is a treasure trove at the WR position, but since we're in wait-and-see mode on that game, we'll slide down the salary scale to Miami's DeVante Parker at $6.3k. Parker hasn't been the target monster that he was last season, but he's proven himself to be extremely efficient this year by posting double-digit DK output in each of Miami's last four games. He turned three targets into 50 yards and a TD last week against the Niners and recorded 10 catches for 110 yards on 12 targets in Week 4 against Seattle. We can consider Parker's target counts of the last two weeks outliers and I expect him to fall somewhere in the middle against the Jets. New York's Pierre Desir has little chance of slowing down Parker and this surprisingly-good Dolphins air attack. The Jets Defense ranks last in the league in allowed catch % to the WR position (71.9%) and stands 30th in the NFL in yards per target (9.88).

Kenny Golladay - DET @ JAX ($6,200)

We've already touched on Matt Stafford and James Robinson in this matchup. You can toss Kenny Golladay in the mix to complete a nice little game stack. Golladay missed the first two games of the year with a hamstring injury, but he's been productive since returning in Week 3, snagging 10 of 15 targets for 109 yards and 2 TDs in over two games. He'll square off against a Jags secondary that's been routinely gashed this season and is coming off allowing an 8/161/1 torch job to Brandin Cooks last week. Jacksonville is relinquishing nearly nine yards per target to opposing wideouts and will throw barely-drafted rookie Chris Claybrooks at Golladay in this game.

Tee Higgins - CIN @ IND ($4,700)

Obviously, we want to look for terrific matchups when constructing DFS rosters, but sometimes - especially when trying to take down a GPP - we must be willing to consider a player that's in perhaps a less-than-plus matchup due to talent, price, or usage. In Bengals rookie WR Tee Higgins, we find all three of those. Higgins has developed rapidly at the pro level and despite being targeted 30 (!) times over Cincy's last four games, his DK salary has remained frozen in this $4.5-5k price range (his price has actually decreased $200 from last week!). The volume is hard to ignore, but more importantly, Higgins is receiving quality targets. He has a healthy aDOT of 14.0 and has accounted for 25.2% of the Bengals' Air Yards this season. This Colts Defense isn't one we want to go out of our way to target, but second-year CB Rock Ya-Sin's 57.7 PFF Grade isn't enough to scare me off the cheap upside that Higgins brings to the table.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: With ATL vs MIN set to go, receivers in this matchup jump to the top of our Week 6 target list...Calvin Ridley ($7.8k) is perhaps better with Julio Jones ($6.7k) in the lineup, while both Adam Thielen ($7.3k) and Justin Jefferson ($6.0k) draw a dream matchup against a Falcons secondary that has succeeded in stopping NO ONE this season and is 31st in the NFL in yards per target allowed to the WR position. Philly funnels offenses to the air, which should put the explosive, yet inconsistent, Marquise Brown ($6.5k) on our GPP radars. The Jets offense is gross, but Jamison Crowder ($6.1k) has been a true standout, breaking the 20-DK point mark every time he's suited up this season. Both Terry McLaurin ($5.7k) and A.J. Brown ($5.6k) are high-upside options, especially at this price point. D.J. Chark's availability might not be known until Sunday morning, but if he can't go, Laviska Shenault ($5.2k) would immediately jump into my player pool. Chase Claypool ($5.2k) broke the slate last week, but I'm not scared to go right back to the well with Diontae Johnson now ruled out for Week 6. The same can be said for Houston's Brandin Cooks ($5.0k), who gets another winnable matchup against the Titans on the heels of a monster performance in Week 5.

 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 6 Picks

Mark Andrews - BAL @ PHI ($6,500)

Mark Andrews' fantasy production has generally depended on his unbelievable efficiency. However, Andrews heads into Week 6 on the heels of his highest-volume game of the season last week against the Bengals. The Ravens stud TE was targeted nine times against Cincy, posting a rock-solid 6/56/1 stat line. Volume is the largest concern with the talented Andrews (he was only targeted three times in Week 4), but we have to feel confident that the opportunities will be there this week against Philly's true funnel defense. The Eagles are allowing just 3.35 yards per carry on the ground, which routinely forces opponents to the air. Opposing pass attacks have found success with TEs against Philly, as the Eagles have allowed the highest completion rate (86.5%) in the NFL to the position.

Jonnu Smith - HOU @ TEN ($5,200)

It seems like forever since we had a chance to roster Jonnu Smith on the Main Slate. I'm jumping at the opportunity to get the Titans TE back in my lineups this week. The matchup is neutral-at- best, with Houston ranking middle of the pack statistically against the TE position, but I'm willing to bet on Smith's elite volume (6.75 targets per game) and eye-opening athletic ability (12.3 yards per catch) at this palatable price tag.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: The TE position is a wasteland this week from my perspective and I will be leaning heavily on the two players highlighted in this week's original writeup.



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FanDuel NFL DFS Lineup Picks for Week 6 - Daily Fantasy Football

Here we are, Week 6. As COVID-19 continues to rear its ugly head and cause chaos throughout the league, the 2020 season has progressed relatively well. With some big names banged up heading into the weekend, keep your eyes open for those sneaky value plays as they can make the difference between a winning or a losing lineup.

As far as injuries are concerned, the names worth monitoring include Dalvin Cook, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, JuJu Smith-SchusterBaker Mayfield, D.J. Chark, A.J. Brown, Julian Edelman, Darius Slayton, Noah Fant, Diontae Johnson, Jarvis Landry, Russell Gage, Leonard Fournette, Hayden Hurst, A.J. Green, and Rob GronkowskiChristian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb, of course, will not play on Sunday. Lastly, after a Falcons' player and coach tested positive for the virus, the matchup with Minnesota may end up getting rescheduled. As of this writing, it is still on; however, as we have learned over recent weeks, that can change very quickly.

In this article, I will be providing you with my Week 6 daily fantasy football lineup picks on FanDuel. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on FanDuel. Be sure to also check out our weekly DraftKings DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @DennisMClausen. Good luck, RotoBallers.

 

FanDuel Quarterbacks - Week 6 Picks

Gardner Minshew II, QB - vs. DET ($7,200)

Minshew wasn't in the best of spirits after Jacksonville dropped its most recent contest to the Houston Texans, marking the team's fourth loss in a row. While the second-year signal-caller hasn't played horribly throughout the first five weeks of the 2020 campaign, he will need to step it up a notch if he hopes to turn the Jaguars' miserable season around. Lucky for him, he will square off against the Lions in Week 6, with Detroit allowing 31.8 points per outing, which is good for fourth-worst on the year. Minshew has been an adequate DFS asset as well, logging at least 19.84 fantasy points in four of his five games this season.

Kirk Cousins, QB - vs. ATL ($7,100)

Cousins, who has historically been one of the league's most accurate quarterbacks from year-to-year, has struggled during the unforgiving 2020 season. In the first three weeks, the veteran threw six interceptions, tying his total from last year in only a quarter of the time it took for him to hit that mark in 2019. Though he has a long way to go before being a consistently capable DFS option, the Vikings will play the Falcons on Sunday, with Atlanta allowing some less-than-impressive numbers on the defensive end. Dalvin Cook may not be in the lineup, but luckily, Alexander Mattison should be able to fill the void with no trouble at all and keep the pressure off Cousins by making some noise out of the backfield.

Also Consider: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,400), Matthew Stafford ($7,300), Teddy Bridgewater ($6,900), Daniel Jones ($6,700)

 

FanDuel Running Backs - Week 6 Picks

Alexander Mattison, RB - vs. ATL ($7,000)

After Dalvin Cook, one of this year's most productive fantasy backs sustained an adductor injury during the loss to the Seahawks on Sunday, Mattison came in for relief. As usual, the 22-year-old delivered, finishing with 112 yards off of 20 carries to go along with three grabs for 24 yards. While Cook hasn't been officially ruled out for the Week 6 meeting with the Atlanta Falcons, things aren't looking promising regarding his availability, which should open the door for Mattison to get his fair share of touches. It is reasonable to expect big things from the former Boise State Bronco; however, he will likely be a popular addition to DFS lineups, making him less desirable in tournament play for those looking to play the contrarian role.

James Robinson, RB - vs. DET ($6,500)

When the Jaguars released Leonard Fournette during the offseason, speculation swirled as to who would serve as the team's workhorse moving forward, primarily after Ryquell Armstead was diagnosed with the Coronavirus on multiple occasions (along with a groin injury) and Devine Ozigbo hindered by a bum hamstring. Robinson, who was signed as an undrafted free agent in April, emerged and has since racked up 333 yards and three touchdowns on the ground in addition to 19 catches for 183 yards. Although he didn't look the best against the Texans, he has a strong chance to get it together against a Lions Defense that has allowed just over 170 yards per game to opposing rushers.

Also Consider: Mike Davis ($7,500), Kareem Hunt II ($6,900), David Montgomery ($5,900), Ronald Jones II ($5,800), Antonio Gibson  ($5,800), Myles Gaskin ($5,700), Devonta Freeman ($5,600)

 

FanDuel Wide Receivers - Week 6 Picks

Adam Thielen, WR - vs. ATL ($7,400)

After Stefon Diggs was dealt to Buffalo during the offseason, some became concerned that Thielen would be less productive, primarily since opposing defenses would be paying even more attention to him as the undisputed No. 1 wideout for the team. That hasn't been the case, nonetheless, as he has scored in all but one game during his first five games of the year. With the Falcons having arguably the worst defense in the league, the sky is the limit for Thielen heading into the weekend.

Allen Robinson, WR - @ CAR ($7,000)

Despite getting off to an impressive start, Bears head coach Matt Nagy still isn't satisfied, especially with the offense underperforming, at least according to his standards. Robinson, who got off to a rough inception of the season, has since turned things around by grabbing 27 of his 39 targets throughout the last three games while also finding the end zone twice during that span. With the veteran looking to keep Chicago in the win column--along with a new contract, he may have more incentive to produce against the Carolina Panthers in Week 6.

Robby Anderson, WR - vs. CHI ($6,500)

Anderson has upped his game from last season. He has racked up a minimum of eight targets in all but one game thus far and appears to have dethroned D.J. Moore as the No. 1 wideout for the Panthers. Currently, the former Temple Owl is ranked seventh in targets (47), fourth in receptions (36), and fourth in yards (490). He continues to mesh well with Teddy Bridgewater, and despite the relatively challenging matchup, he still has a higher ceiling than most, especially with a rostering cost that is well below where it should be considering how well he has played throughout the first five weeks.

Also Consider: Kenny Golladay ($7,200), DeVante Parker ($6,400), Justin Jefferson ($5,900), Chase Claypool ($5,500), Curtis Samuel ($5,100)

 

FanDuel Tight Ends - Week 6 Picks

Jonnu Smith, TE - @ PHI ($5,800)

Due to a quad injury, Smith practiced in a limited capacity on Thursday. Nonetheless, he could be good to go in Week 6 against the visiting Texans. Although Houston has fared well against players at the tight end position, the four-year pro may see an uptick in looks from Ryan Tannehill, resulting from the absence of Corey Davis, who has been sidelined while battling, you guessed it, COVID-19.

Also Consider: T.J. Hockenson ($5,700), Mike Gesicki ($5,600)



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NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel - Week 6 DFS Cash Games

We have made it to Week 6 of the NFL season, and for now, all 11 games on the main slate are still on track to play this week. There has been a covid scare with the Falcons, so keep an eye on the Falcons and Vikings game, which would take a couple of major plays off the board if it is canceled or postponed.

When looking at the Week 6 slate, there is a lot of value; if you have any questions, do not hesitate to chat it up with me on Twitter @bdentrek. The quarterback position is pretty straightforward if not paying for the top options (and you don't need to this week), which is always nice. There are a few cheaper running back options that are in play for cash, but at this time, as we wait for more news, the wide receiver "cheap" plays are not as obvious as usual. The tight end position has been extremely top-heavy, so pay up in cash for a Jonnu Smith or Mark Andrews, or go down to the value discussed below. This week's cash lineups can be pretty balanced, which will start Sunday with a solid floor and some upside.

This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's take a look at the cash value plays for Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season.

 

Week 6 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays

Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA vs NYJ | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,400

Just another week of cash game values and another week to play FitzmagiThis season, he has been a beacon scoring 25+ DK points 23 or more FD points in four straight games. It goes back even deeper than that for Fitzpatrick, who has been a top-12 scorer in 11 of his last 16 starts for the Dolphins. This week he gets the privilege of facing the Jets at home in Miami. The Jets currently rank 19 in the NFL versus the quarterback over 20 points per game. Fitzpatrick should be one of the top targets at quarterback this week when playing cash games.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs HOU | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,300

Tannehill is coming off a solid Tuesday night performance versus the Bills. He heads into Sunday's matchup with the division-rival Texans ready to continue crushing. He has scored at least 16 points in each game this season but has played much better at home as a Titans member. Over his last five home games, he is averaging nearly 28 fantasy points per game, and in his career versus Houston, he is averaging over 21 fantasy points per game. The Texans have played well versus the pass this season, but like most teams facing the Titans, they will likely be more focused on Derrick Henry and the running game. That will open things open for Tannehill in a close game where they have an implied team total of 28.5. It is that simple in cash this week at the quarterback position, play either Fitzmagic or Tannehill.

 

Week 6 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays

David Montgomery, CHI at CAR | DK: $5,800, FD: $5,900

This week it will not get much better when it comes to matchups for Montgomery than facing the Panthers. The Panthers are last in the NFL versus the run allowing over 35 fantasy points per game to the running back position. The Panthers Defense is allowing 112 rushing yards per game and over eight receptions per game. That fits right into Montgomery's wheelhouse as he has had at least 10 carries in every game this season and has had at least six targets in the last two games. The workload will be there for Montgomery as three-point underdogs, and you just can't beat the matchup for your cash lineups this Sunday.

Myles Gaskin, MIA vs NYJ | DK: $5,400 FD: $5,700

Gaskin heads into Sunday's matchup versus the Jets coming off his best game as a professional versus the 49ers. He now has touched the ball 20+ times in two of the last three games, and the game he did not, he still had 13 touches. He has actually had at least 13 touches in all five games this season. That is quite a consistent workload, a workload we look for in cash. He has a matchup versus the Jets where the Dolphins are 9.5 point favorites with a 28.5 point implied team total, meaning he should have plenty of chances to make his presence known. The Jets Defense should help as well, as they are ranked 27 versus running backs this season, allowing 110+ rushing yards per game, six receptions a game, and 30+ fantasy points per game to running backs. Gaskin is a strong play in his own right and is a great pivot off a popular Montgomery in tournaments.

Devonta Freeman, NYG vs WAS | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,600

We were on Freeman as a nice value last week, and there is no reason to look in his direction again this week. Last week we saw the second week where Freeman was the lead back for the Giants as he had 17 carries and caught two passes on three targets, putting up 16+ fantasy points. He now heads into a matchup versus a Washington Football Team that is middle of the pack versus running backs this season. They allow over 103 rushing yards, four receptions, and over 23 fantasy points per week to the running back position. The Giants are 2.5 point home favorites this week, and with a close game in the works, Freeman could see another 15+ carry day and potentially 20+ touches.

 

Week 6 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays

Terry McLaurin, WAS at NYG | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,900

Volume, volume, volume that is what McLaurin brings to the table for your cash game lineups. He brings the kind of volume that should be into the $6K range on DK but is priced a little more appropriately on FD. According to McLaurin's standards, he had a down week, but a lot can be blamed on his quarterback situation as Alex Smith looked very off. He had good chemistry with Kyle Allen before he left with an injury, but he has been practicing this week and will start on Sunday. That's great news for McLaurin, who has been targeted at least seven times in each game this season and goes up against a Giants Defense ranked 21 versus wide receivers this season. Look for McLaurin to return to form, put up a double-digit fantasy week, and bring a strong floor to your cash lineup.

Jamison Crowder, NYJ at MIA | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,600

There are not many that bring more consistent volume every week than McLaurin, but Crowder just may. He has had at least 10 targets in all three games he has played this season, with at least eight catches and 20+ points in each game. He is the main receiving weapon, mainly the only receiving weapon in the Jets offense. He faces a Miami Defense ranked 18 in the NFL versus the pass, and in a game where they are 9.5 point underdogs, Crowder should expect plenty of volumes yet again on his way to another double-digit fantasy point game.

Kenny Golladay, DET at JAX | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,200

Golladay missed the first few weeks of the season, but he has been the wide receiving stud we all expected since he returned. He has been targeted at least seven times in each game and has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each game. That is some serious cash game stability. This week he gets a nice matchup versus the Jaguars Defense, ranked 20 versus wide receivers this season. The Lions are 3.5 point favorites this week and have a massive 29 point implied team total. Expect Golladay to be a factor in that team total and, in doing so, make for a great cash game value.

 

Week 6 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays

Irv Smith Jr., MIN vs ATL | DK: $2,500, FD: $4,300

Going into the season, many analysts were preaching the value of Smith in drafts. Well, it took a couple of weeks, but Irv had a big game on Sunday, bringing in four of his five targets for 64 yards. Those are great numbers for a min-priced tight end. This week he gets one of the best matchups we can ask for when it comes to tight ends. He will be facing the Falcons Defense that is ranked 31 versus the tight end position in 2020. They allow nearly seven catches per game, 1.4 touchdowns per game, and over 18 fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Smith will free up a ton of cash this week and brings some really nice upside to your lineups at the same time.



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GPP DFS Value Plays for FanDuel, DraftKings (Week 6) - Daily Fantasy Football Advice

It's possible that my Week 6 GPP Value Plays have been influenced by Amazon Prime Day which was earlier this week. I didn't buy too much, but I did buy two items that were dramatically reduced. And a quick look at my Week 6 DFS value plays shows options that combined are fine cheaper than my usual suggestions.

As of time of submission, it appears that all games are systems go. There will not be any Covid-19 issues it appears this week (knock knock). So we have that going for us at least. And thank goodness because while I did make a profit last week, it was a very small one. And because Prime Day has come and gone, I need to make some money because the Mrs. and I like to have the holiday shopping at least started before Halloween and we have yet to do so. And I will be putting my money where my mouth is and everyone of the players highlighted below will be in at least one lineup of mine, if not many.

So even if didn't want to help you out, I have my own vested interests in finding week 6 GPP value picks. Here are four at each of the key positions that should put us both in position to make some dough on Sunday!

 

Week 5 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play

Gardner Minshew II vs Detroit (DraftKings $6400, FanDuel $7200)

I really haven't highlighted Minshew much this year and I need to rectify that. Let's start with something many heard about, but still not enough did. And that was his Bud Light campaign. On the chance you missed it, here it is again.

There are so many great things here. For one, the fact that Minshew seems to care, or at least mockingly care about his fantasy status automatically elevates him above nearly every other quarterback. So rather than focus on all of the other great things about the tweet above, let's just focus on Minshew's chance for success this weekend.

The Lions are a popular pick to score quite a bit this weekend. But if the Lions are going to be scoring a lot of points, might it be possible that the Jaguars will try and keep up? The answer is obviously yes, especially given that the Detroit Lions have allowed the ninth-most passing TDs. Minshew has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of five games this year. In addition to his TD prowess, Minshew is averaging a very respectable 288 passing yards per game. Minshew can sometimes wilt under tough opposition, but the Lions are one of the ten worst teams in preventing fantasy points to the quarterback position.

Now add the two additional layers that Minshew is likely to be low owned and is also very affordable. When it comes to the week 6 GPP DFS values, Gardner you're one of the best around.

 

Week 5 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play

La'Mical Perine vs. Jets (DraftKings $4000, FanDuel $4600)

Perine offers us a nice opportunity at the absolute minimum and second lowest salary on the sites respectively. Obviously when choosing players priced that low, we should keep our expectations in check. But I absolutely love Perine's upside this week. And while I'm not a Gator fan, seeing his college highlights gets me juiced for his possibilities this weekend:

I'm making the presumption that you heard Leveon Bell was released, but that happened after the sites assigned salary, leaving Perine at a rock-bottom cost. But the Dolphins are a pretty ideal matchup. They allowed a TD less than every 16 RB touches. In addition to enabling RBs to find the endzone, Miami has allowed 4.97 yards per carry and 6.81 yards per target.

We know what we're getting with Frank Gore as he continues to be nemesis of Father Time. And unfortunately, Perine will still be playing under Adam Gase. However, that might not be the case for much longer. And whomever the Jets head coach is, even if its Adam Gase, is going to need to determine if Perine is the long term answer. Perine was not given a whole lot of opportunities even when was Bell out. But now that he is officially gone, I do expect the Jets to increase his workload. And at such minimal cost, Im willing to take a chance it's this weekend.

 

Week 5 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play

Darnell Mooney vs Carolina (DraftKings $3000, FanDuel $5000)

I talked about this play in my GPP stacks article earlier this week:

Meanwhile, Mooney has slowly and quietly pushed Anthony Miller out of Bears' WR2 spot. He has seen 19 targets the last three weeks. If Foles can be just a little more accurate, I would not be surprised to see Mooney catch six passes for 60 yards and a touchdown this weekend. That would be the rookie's best professional game yet but my guess is that this is only the beginning.

 

Week 5 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play

Irv Smith Jr. vs Falcons (DraftKings $2500, FanDuel $4300)

When you go this cheap, even a couple of catches for 20 yards earns you a profit. Smith is not even priced within the Top 25 TEs this week! Yet he could easily be a top-20 play at the position this week.

Now in his second season, Smith is starting to flash some of the potential that many believe will lead to a big year next year. He might arrive earlier than expected. If he continues to run passing routes on more than 70 percent of the Vikings pass plays, like he did on Sunday night against Seattle, he'll be a fantasy asset sooner rather than later.

Add in the fact that no defense playing this week is giving up more fantasy points to TEs than Atlanta and this is an incredible buying opportunity. It is the absolute definition of a GPP value play.



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NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKings, FanDuel - Week 6 GPP Contests (DFS Tournaments)

When trying to find strong Week 6 GPP DFS stacks, one of the first things I needed to do is determine which stacks are going to be the "cash" and heavily owned stacks. With it appearing now that the Minnesota/Atlanta game is still going to be played, both those teams jump out as potential cash game stacks.

Anyone playing the Jets right now has to be considered a potential cash game stack even if Miami might not be the most reliable option. Yet they still fit the bill and I expect them to be heavily owned this weekend. I also think Detroit, being well-rested and coming off a bye, will be a popular choice against the lowly Jaguars. I'm not sure which side will be more popular, but I also foresee many DFS players stacking one side or the other of the NYG/WAS game. I am not sure I even agree with that decision, but given how mediocre those two teams are, I do understand the movement behind it.

Add in the four teams on bye this week, and that leaves me with limited options. Nearly every one of the stacks above is playing a weak opponent. But what about a team playing a team with only one loss? That option is likely on the borderline between GPP and cash. But with that opponent having only one loss, I can see that option slipping into the GPP stack zone for week 6.

 

NFL DFS Stacks: The "Momentum Stops Here" Stack

Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Steelers are a very strong play, but as we all know the Browns are off to one of their best starts in decades. However, this is a prime match-up for the Steelers passing game. And with the Cowboys playing on Monday night, I had to find another team whose match-up screams "play me" and few do more than the Browns.

Cleveland has allowed the second-most fantasy points through the air to QBs. But they've been beaten on the ground too. Cleveland has given up 107.6 fantasy points per game to their opponents. Only Seattle and Atlanta have been worse. Add in the fact that Cleveland has allowed the third-most fantasy points just to WRs and you see why I like this stack.

And I like Chase Claypool. I have a few shares of him in seasonal, including on my lone dynasty team. If you want to play him, go ahead. But he's a little too much "flavor of the month" for me. Obviously, regression is coming, but most will see all those fantasy points and continue to ride him until otherwise. I caution that move and direct your eye towards routes run. Claypool had 23 last week; both JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington ran more than 30. And if Diontae Johnson plays, I see even less reason to play Claypool.

I will start my stack with Juju. Despite three touchdowns, I know that many of Smith-Schuster's seasonal owners are not happy with him. He's only averaging 47 yards per game. But my gut is telling me to play him this week and the brain is making a strong case. The Browns allowed CeeDee Lamb to go off for five catches for 79 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Boyd and Willie Snead did nearly similar damage against the Browns. Yet not one of these receivers saw more than eight targets. Juju averages 7.5 targets per game. I think you can make the deduction. Meanwhile, James Washington is so wonderfully cheap that he makes for a great value play. As everyone piles onto Claypool, Washington makes for a nifty pivot. Don't forget that Washington had one of his best games last season against Cleveland when hauled in four passes for 111 yards and a touchdown.

Or you might prefer to include Eric Ebron in your stack. Cleveland is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs this year. Ebron is averaging six targets over these last three games. Priced outside the top dozen TEs, Ebron is another cheap alternative. We know that Baker Mayfield takes care of his house, but the Steelers are hosting this weekend. Ebron should help the Steelers give the Browns a big "L" on their way out of Steel City.

 

NFL DFS Stacks: The "Other Side Of The Coin" Stack

Jacksonville Jaguars 

I promise you that the Detroit Lions are going to be a popular stack this weekend. And I get it. But if the Lions are going to be scoring a lot of points, might it be possible that the Jaguars will try and keep up?

The answer is obviously yes, especially given that the Detroit Lions have allowed the ninth-most passing TDs. Minshew has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of five games this year. In addition to his TD prowess, Minshew is averaging a very respectable 288 passing yards per game. Minshew can sometimes whither under tough opposition, but the Lions are one of the ten worst teams in preventing fantasy points to the quarterback position.

D.J. Chark is averaging double-digit fantasy points per game this year. If he's healthy, expect him to continue that streak. However, Chark did not participate in practice on Thursday. And I do like two of his fellow Jaguar WRs as much if not more than him. Laviska Shenault is even more affordable than Chark and he has 20 targets over the last three weeks. He has not scored since week 1, but I see that drought ending soon. Shenault should play, but he too is battling some injury issues. And that's part of the reason why I love Keelan Cole this week, especially as a GPP play. Cole has a lower floor than Chark or Shenault. However, he has scored three times, making him a cheap but potential source for touchdowns in any given week. And with this game having the second-highest over/under of the early slate, I think we see a bunch of touchdowns.

 

NFL DFS Stacks: The "Don't Let The Sites Mislead You" Stack

Green Bay Packers 

A lot of folks are going to see the red "1st" next to Rodgers's name under the matchup rank and run away. And the truth is the Bucs secondary has been pretty good. But it hasn't been that good. They have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They are tied with seven other teams for the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns. And they've given up the 18th most passing yards. It's not a soft match-up, but it's not one to run away from either.

Furthermore, the Bucs were forced to do this:

Tampa Bay can probably survive without Cichy for three weeks, but the loss of Vea is huge. Vea was ranked the third best interior lineman coming into last week's games. The loss might be going under the radar, but it shouldn't. One of the reasons that Rodgers "You Ain't Ready For Love" tour is going strong is because he has not been pressured very much. He's been sacked just three times this season and is one of the best quarterbacks in the game when he can stay in the pocket. I think he will hit a bump against a team that can pressure Rodgers. But that's not the Buccaneers. Rodgers ain't cheap this week for a reason. He's averaging nearly four touchdowns and over 300 passing yards a game. He should see similar numbers this week.

This also means that his pass-catchers should see big numbers. And that starts with Davante Adams. Adams' cumulative stats are nothing impressive as he has not played the last three weeks due to a bye and injuries. But Adams still averaged double-digit targets to start the season and should see close to that number this week as well. The Bucs DB Carlton Davis is pretty good, but go back and watch last week's game. You'll see that Darnell Mooney spun Davis out of his shoes on a few occasions but the inaccuracy of Foles prevented Mooney from having a big game. And Darnell Mooney is no Davante Adams. Adams is the most expensive WR on DK this week, but that will help drive the ownership down. I will be ecstatic to be one of the few who own him.

Of course with ARod and Adams, you are going to need a cheaper option. And Marquez Valdes-Scantling should squeeze in easily. He is averaging an impressive 17.5 YPC. And if you don't like MVS, you can always go with the Robert Tonyan option. He has five touchdowns on the year already, including a hat trick most recently against Atlanta. But Tonyan is friends with George Kittle and it appears that the latter's All-Pro level of play is wearing off on Tonyan. Either way, I'm looking forward to getting pieces of the Green Bay passing attack this week.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your Week 6 DFS GPP Stacks!

[youtubs_nfl]

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Wide Receiver Matchups To Target in Week 6

The Week 5 wide receiver matchup article only featured one player that finished inside the top-10, and that was Jamison Crowder who finished as WR-7 on the week. Tee Higgins underwhelmed in a tough matchup against the Ravens Defense, Golden Tate flopped in a great matchup against the Cowboys and Deebo Samuel’s performance suffered due to poor quarterback play and the return of Byron Jones to the Dolphins secondary. Other than that, we did alright as CeeDee Lamb, Marquise Brown, Robby Anderson, Will Fuller and Laviska Shenault Jr. finished between WR-15 and WR-25 on the week.

As we’ve seen so far this season, nothing is more important than matchup analysis when it comes to fantasy football. The 49ers Defense was once strong, but it has gotten so beat up over the last few weeks, they’re no longer a matchup you need to avoid. The Colts, Ravens, Patriots and Bears Defenses are looking like units you want to avoid in the passing game. The Seahawks, Falcons, Saints, Browns, Cowboys and now the Chargers Defenses are looking like units you can really exploit moving forward.

Now, here are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 6. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the DFS games.

 

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

$7,200 FanDuel / $6,200 DraftKings – vs Chris Claybrooks

The over/under is set at 54.5 points and the Lions are only favored by 3.5 points so this one should remain close throughout which means the Lions will likely need to throw for most of the game. Chris Claybrooks has been burned deep lately, and he’s giving up a 77% catch-rate along with 2.24 yards-per-route covered which is the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. The Jaguars Defense surrenders just over 38 fantasy points to wide receivers per game, and with Marvin Jones fading, Golladay should get most of the action in the passing game this week.

 

Will Fuller, Houston Texans

$6,700 FanDuel / $6,800 DraftKings – vs Malcolm Butler

In general, the Titans Defense struggles to cover quicker wide receivers and they’ve given up the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers so far in 2020. Will Fuller is a speedster and should give Malcolm Butler problems. This game has an over/under set at 53.5 points and the Titans are favored, which means Fuller should be the recipient of plenty of targets this week.

 

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

$6,400 FanDuel / $6,800 DraftKings – vs Pierre Desir

At one time, Pierre Desir was a pretty good cornerback, but in 2020 he’s surrendering an 80% catch-rate and 1.79 yards-per-route covered which isn’t great either. The Jets Defense gives up the eighth-most passing yards in the NFL and 8.3 yards-per-attempt which is third-worst in the league. Parker is the Dolphins most-targeted wide receiver and he has a better matchup than Preston Williams or Isaiah Ford, so he should have a decent game.

 

Jamison Crowder, N.Y. Jets

$6,600 FanDuel / $6,100 DraftKings – vs Nik Needham

Byron Jones finally returned to the lineup for the Dolphins Defense in Week 5 which is trouble for opposing wide receivers that primarily play on the outside. Luckily, Jamison Crowder plays in the slot for 77% of his snaps and should avoid Jones for the most part. Nik Needham gives up a 67% catch-rate and 1.52 yards-per-route covered, both of which are the worst marks amongst all the Dolphins defensive backs. The Jets are 9.5-point underdogs so Joe Flacco should be throwing a lot here. Until Chris Herndon emerges, Crowder is the only thing going in the Jets passing game.

 

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

$5,900 FanDuel / $6,000 DraftKings – vs Isaiah Oliver

Although Justin Jefferson did have a poor stat-line in Week 5, he showed us his ceiling in Week 4. In Week 6, Jefferson will face Isaiah Oliver when he lines up on the outside, who surrenders a 74% catch-rate and 1.77 yards-per-route covered. When Jefferson bumps into the slot, which he plays 46% of the time, he will see Kendall Sheffield who gives up 2.35 yards-per-route covered which is third-worst in the NFL. On top of the solid cornerback matchup, in general, the Falcons Defense gives up over 42 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers each game which bodes well for Jefferson’s outlook. This game has an over/under set at 54.5 points so Jefferson may be involved in a shootout.

 

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

$5,800 FanDuel / $5,200 DraftKings – vs Desmond Trufant

The Lions have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far in 2020, allowing five wide receivers to score more than 15 fantasy points (note that the Lions have only played four games). Laviska Shenault weighs 30 pounds more than Desmond Trufant who figures to be covering him this weekend. Normally I wouldn’t make a big deal about the weight difference between a wide receiver and cornerback, but it’s relevant because Shenault is so dangerous running with the ball after the catch and Trufant may have trouble bringing him down. D.J. Chark suffered an ankle injury last week which means he may be slowed, possibly making Shenault the No. 1 option in the Jaguars passing game.

 

Isaiah Wright, Washington Football Team

$4,500 FanDuel / $3,000 DraftKings – vs Darnay Holmes

Steven Sims was placed on IR last week and in his absence, Isaiah Wright played 77.8% of Washington’s offensive snaps. While Wright didn’t do much in Week 5, in fairness to him, Kyle Allen was knocked out of the game early and the receivers did have a tough matchup against a solid Rams secondary. In Week 6, Wright will see Darnay Holmes in coverage who has been a weekly fixture in this article. Wright has a four-inch height advantage over Holmes who gives up 1.75 yards-per-route covered and a 74% catch-rate. The Giants secondary has been decent as a unit in 2020, but Holmes has been the weak link. Wright is more of an tournament play in DFS formats and should only be played in the deepest season-long leagues if you’re desperate.



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NFL Week 6: Drew Deen's NFL DFS Tiered Rankings (Premium Content)


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Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.

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OwnersBox NFL DFS Lineup Picks for Week 6 - Daily Fantasy Football

Hey there RotoBallers! If you haven't had a chance to check out the weekly fantasy offerings over at OwnersBox, now is the time! OwnersBox is a new weekly fantasy platform that offers plenty of game setups to fulfill your desire to draft throughout the season! Over at OwnersBox,  you can participate in snake drafts and select 1, 2, 3, or 4-week tournament-style bracket contests.

In this article, I will be providing you with my weekly fantasy football lineup picks on OwnersBox for contests that start in Week 6. I will pick out two players at each position: a short-term option (for one-week drafts) and a long-term option (for drafts lasting between two and four weeks). As always, be sure to monitor news from the league in this crazy COVID-19 season. Game postponements and cancellations can happen at any time.

Be sure to also check out our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big no matter what your preferred weekly fantasy platform happens to be. If you sign up for OwnersBox this week, you'll get $25 free in OwnersBucks, which can be redeemed to play in real money games.

 

OwnersBox Quarterbacks

One-Week Drafts:

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) @BUF

Mahomes and the Chiefs travel to Buffalo in what should be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate. The Bills have struggled against the pass in the early going, ranking just 24th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Mahomes as the top QB off the board in one-week drafts in a no-brainer.

Also consider: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) vs. KC

 

Two-to-Four-Week Drafts:

Cam Newton (New England Patriots) vs. DEN, vs. SF, @BUF, @NYJ

Newton has tested negative for COVID-19 after missing a handful of weeks and will presumably be back under center in Week 6 against the Broncos. Denver's pass defense ranks 18th in DVOA and is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. In Week 7, he will take on the 49ers at home. San Francisco's once-dominant defense has crumbled in 2020. After allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to shred them in Week 5, the 49ers are allowing the 14th-most fantasy points per game and rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass.

Week 8 brings a fantastic road matchup against the Bills. Revisit the Patrick Mahomes section above to see just how generous Buffalo has been to opposing passing offenses this season. Newton finishes up this fantastic four-game stretch with a road matchup against the Jets. New York's pass-funnel defense ranks 31st in pass DVOA and ninth against the run.

Also consider: Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. CLE, @TEN, @BAL, @DAL

 

OwnersBox Running Backs

One-Week Drafts:

Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans) vs. HOU 

Henry found the end zone twice more in Week 5's Tuesday night game and delivered a vicious stiff-arm to cornerback Josh Norman, which you can check out below. The veteran running back is a good bet to score again in Week 6 against a Houston run defense that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs.

Derrick Henry epic stiff-arm!

Also consider: Mike Davis (Carolina Panthers) vs. CHI

 

Two-to-Four-Week Drafts:

Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) vs. ARI, @WAS, @PHI, vs. PIT

Elliott is always an excellent fantasy option and he could see his team's offense skew a bit more run-heavy after the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott. He will face the Cardinals in Week 6 in what should be a high-scoring game. Look for Dallas to be in the red zone plenty against the Cardinals Defense. In Week 7, Elliott will square off against Washington on the road. Washington is tough against the pass but just average vs. the run, which bodes well for Zeke's outlook.

A road matchup against the Eagles follows. Philly ranks 15th in run defense DVOA. The only tough matchup in this four-game stretch is Elliott's Week 9 showdown with the Steelers. Pittsburgh's run defense has been tough but they did show some cracks, allowing Miles Sanders to score twice in Week 5.

Also consider: Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers) @TB, @HOU, vs. MIN, @SF

 

OwnersBox Wide Receivers

One-Week Drafts:

DeAndre Hopkins (Arizona Cardinals) @DAL

Hopkins proved he has over a Week 4 ankle injury last week, popping off for 131 yards and a score against the Jets last week. He draws a pristine matchup against a leaky Dallas secondary in Week 6. The Cowboys are allowing the third-most WR fantasy points per game this season, giving up big games to Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Odell Beckham Jr., and Darius Slayton. Hopkins is a smash selection as the first WR off the board.

Also consider: Kenny Golladay (Detroit Lions) @JAX

 

Two-to-Four-Week Drafts:

Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers) @TB, @HOU, vs. MIN, @SF

Adams struggled with a hamstring injury over the first few weeks of the season but he was reportedly close to playing in Week 4. He should be close to 100% coming off a Week 5 bye. When Adams is healthy, he is one of the safest, highest-ceiling WRs in fantasy, thanks to the lack of receiving options around him. He will take on Tampa Bay in Week 6 in what is a tough matchup. Of course, I like his chances any week regardless of matchup difficulty. Week 7 brings a road matchup against a Houston pass defense that has been very average against the pass this season.

The Vikings have been one of the top matchups for receivers this season, having allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position through the first five weeks.  Adams finishes up with the 49ers in Week 9. San Francisco's pass defense ranks just 23rd in pass defense DVOA. They are also much tougher against the run, which should push even more work onto Adams' plate.

Also consider: Tyreek Hill (Kansas City Chiefs) @BUF, @DEN, vs. NYJ, vs. CAR

 

OwnersBox Tight Ends

One-Week Drafts:

Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens) @PHI

Andrews has been up-and-down this season but he's on a hot streak of late, having caught three touchdowns in his last two games. He will take on an Eagles Defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. As the clear No. 1 option in the Baltimore passing game, Andrews is likely to find the end zone again this weekend.

Also consider: George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) vs. LAR

 

Two-to-Four-Week Drafts:

Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) @BUF, @DEN, vs. NYJ, vs. CAR

Kelce is in a great spot over the next four games of the season. He will face a Bills Defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the tight end this weekend. In Week 7, he travels to Denver in another plus matchup. The Broncos have allowed the 11th-most FPP to the position.

The Jets pass defense is one of the worst in the league, as mentioned above in the Cam Newton section, and has allowed three touchdowns to tight ends over the past four games. Kelce wraps up this stretch against the Panthers in his only "tough" matchup on the slate. Carolina has been stingy against enemy tight ends but they haven't faced anyone on the level of Kelce this season.

Also consider: Jonnu Smith (Tennessee Titans) vs. HOU, vs. PIT, @CIN, vs. CHI



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NFL DFS: Expert Roundtable - Week 6 (Premium Content)


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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Week 6 - Monkey Knife Fight

Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL Season! The season is moving right along and has gotten very exciting and that means our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play.

Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight offer some of the coolest, and easiest to win, NFL DFS games in the industry. There are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash because, at MKF, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a $50 deposit bonus.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in a couple of these games including the Falcons at Viking and Texans at Titans.

 

Falcons @ Vikings More or Less Contest

Recommended Prop Pick:

Matt Ryan more than 300.5 passing yards and Kirk Cousins more than 280.5 passing yards

This game sets up to be a shootout as it has a total of 54.5 currently, which is one of the highest totals on the board. Matt Ryan has posted a couple of dud fantasy performances in the previous few weeks, but is still averaging nearly 295 passing yards per game. He will be facing a Vikings Defense that has allowed nearly 265 passing yards per game the previous four weeks. The fact that the Falcons are dogs here also helps with this prop as Ryan will likely be throwing late in the game, especially since they rank in the middle of the pack in rushing yards per game with 117.

As bad as the Vikings secondary is, the Falcons are even worse. They have allowed over 350 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks. While Cousins has yet to have that monster game in 2020, this could be the one as the Vikings are expected to be without Dalvin Cook. This could mean huge games for Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. The reason behind this is because the Falcons have allowed over 210 receiving yards per game to wide receivers over the previous four weeks, which ranks second-worst in the league over that span.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Texans @ Titans Fantasy Challenge Contest

Recommended Prop Pick:

Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Will Fuller over 57.5 Fantasy Points

This is one of my favorite games this week and I especially like it from a fantasy standpoint. Derrick Henry is one of the toughest and most obvious lead backs in the league and he has a stellar matchup vs. Houston this week. The Texans have allowed 543 rushing yards to backs over the previous four weeks, which is ranked worst in the league. They are allowing over 135 rushing yards per game and nearly 5.3 yards per carry to backs. This is an absolute smash spot for Henry who is averaging over 25 carries per game in 2020. He is also a major threat to score as he has posted four scores through his first four contests.

A.J. Brown is back and was a big reason for the Titans' success in Week 5. He hauled in seven of his nine targets for 82 yards and a score. He was clearly a favorite target of Ryan Tannehill as noted by the nine looks he received Tuesday night. The Texans have been average at best vs. wide receivers over the previous four weeks as they have allowed 165 receiving yards per game, but they have also allowed four touchdowns over that span and given up 51 receptions. Brown is an absolute beast and one of the biggest wide receivers in the league, which will also make him a handful for this Texans' secondary. He should be a solid play for this prop.

Will Fuller has put together a solid season thus far in 2020 as he has hauled in 22 of 30 targets for 332 yards and three scores. The Titans have allowed the 12th most receiving yards to wideouts over the previous four weeks, but keep in mind that they have only played three games in that span. They are actually allowing over 225 receiving yards per game to the position and have also given up four touchdowns. This is a prime spot for Fuller to take advantage of this secondary on at least one big deep play as he has grown accustomed to doing.

Bonus Play: One other player I really love in this game is Jonnu Smith. Smith has earned 27 targets through his first four games and managed to haul in 18 receptions for 221 yards. He has also been a monster in the endzone as he has hauled in five scores, including two games with two touchdowns each. Houston has been average vs. the tight end as they rank 12th in receptions allowed and 14th in yards allowed. He could certainly have a solid day in this one.

Play the Fantasy Challenge Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Texans @ Titans Reception Collection Contest

Recommended Prop Pick:

A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, and Will Fuller over 17.5 receptions

I am going to recommend the same corps of players from this Texans/Titans game for the reception collection contest as well. It is a game that will likely be highly targeted in DFS and the same should hold true on MKF.

A.J. Brown returned to action last week and reeled in seven receptions on nine targets. Though Corey Davis' status should be monitored leading up to this game, Brown still garnered eight targets and five receptions Week 1 vs. Denver with both Davis and Adam Humphries present in the lineup. He should be the top target for Ryan Tannehill moving forward.

Jonnu Smith has seen the fifth-most targets per game at the tight end position with an average of nearly seven per game. He is also hauling in the fifth-most receptions among the position with nearly five per game. He has picked up the pace lately as he has seen 15 targets and caught 10 passes in the last two games combined. He will certainly be a focal point in this offense moving forward and should be able to find success vs. an average Texans' defense.

Will Fuller is the bonafide top receiver in Houston. He is currently averaging over seven targets per game and nearly six receptions per game. As aforementioned, he will be facing a Titans Defense that has been giving up chunks of yards to wideouts, but they have also allowed 16 receptions per game to the position. He should be in line for a solid day.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight



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Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Week 6

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"Foos-ball? Buncha overgrown monsters man-handlin' each other -- 'Member when dat man wanted you to play foos-ball, Bobby?"  Waterboy is bringing all the good vibes this weekend after an excellent week 5.  The bets continued to crush for the season with a 4-2 card, and I was fortunate enough to take down a second-place price of $4500 on DraftKings using the rankings and plays from the preview video.

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing.  Also, be sure to check out the betting tools and

 

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information than usual since it is Week 1.  Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units.  If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes.  For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor.  For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

  • NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
  • Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following:  22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
  • Mr. Garage Guy would be the following:  22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
  • Mr. Danny Boi would be the following:  22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

So, let's discuss the trend.  Everyone finished in the green.  However, Mr. Danny Boi being up 22.5U means something much more financially positive than Mr. Uncle Leo. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

 

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Week 6 Betting Card

Here, I will post my Week 6 picks.  Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial.  Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+21.85u) 33-18 Total [1-0 on 4&5U plays]

  • 0-1.5U Risk Record:  19-14
  • 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record:  13-4
  • 4-5U Risk Record:  1-0

A bit of a smaller card this week but more could be added so be sure to check back before kick-off.

  • Bears ML vs Panthers - Risk 1U to win 1.05U
  • Lions -2.5 vs Jaguars - Risk 1.2U to win 1U
  • Texans/Titans Over 53 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
  • Packers/Bucs Over 55 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
  • Steelers ML - Risk 4U to win 2.2U
  • Steelers/Ravens ML Parlay - Risk 1.15U to win 1U
  • Steelers/Dolphins ML Parlay - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
  • Ravens/Dolphins 7pt Teaser - Risk 2.6U to win 2U
  • More could be added - typing this up earlier than usual this week

Chef's Yolo Parlay:  None for now - could add later



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NFL Betting Picks For Week 6 (10/18/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Spreads

As fans, we had our emotions played with in Week 5 a bit. There were several COVID-19 cases that made their way around the league, but in turn, we only had one game moved. In our games, Arizona was ready to hit the over themselves, but they pulled back and took it easy on the Jets. Indianapolis was missing one of their best defensive players and completely dropped the ball on offense, killing any shot at taking down the Browns. Atlanta and Carolina gave us a push on the 1H total; it puzzles me how the Atlanta offense has struggled as much as they have.

  • Week 5: 1-1-1 (33%, -.15u)
  • 2019 Season: 8-6-1 (53%, +2.22u)

(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

 

Green Bay Packers (-1, -108) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

O/U: 55

The Packers are on fire for Aaron Rodgers' tour to silence any doubters, reeling off four straight wins, by an average of 12.7 ppg, before hitting their Week 5 bye. Over 1,200 yards with 13 touchdowns and no blemishes, Rodgers is going for a championship and might bag an MVP award on the way. It's looking like Davante Adams will suit up this week, which is an instant boost to the offense, but what really makes the Packers tick is their run game which averages over 150 ypg but just 128 in their two road games. If Aaron Jones is producing, so is this offense. Defensively, things could be better, as they rank 25th in both rushing and passing DVOA. They're getting healthy, but their secondary will have their hands full with a talented Bucs receiving corps.

The Tom-pa Bay Bucs are in a three-way tie for the NFC South but they seem to have yet to hit their stride. Tom Brady's offense averages 365 ypg and 28 ppg, and that's without Chris Godwin (hamstring) for three games. They've posted two strong wins at home already, and with Godwin likely returning, we'll see these Bucs back to full strength. Defensively, Tampa houses one of the best units in the NFL, ranking Top 5 in both passing and rushing DVOA. They've held opponents to under 275 passing yards three times in five games, including not allowing more than 87 yards rushing once. One issue they'll need to correct is taking penalties, with which they've been one of the league's worst, averaging over 80 yards of penalties per game.

Tampa Bay opened as three-point favorites and the line has shifted to favor the Packers by a point. Green Bay coming off a bye gives them the rest advantage but Tampa Bay likely getting their stars healthy and back at home, it's interesting to see the line shift towards the Packers. They have just one turnover this season, but with Tampa's stout defensive unit, I see that changing and the Bucs offense putting a ton of pressure on GB with their full arsenal of offensive weapons and picking up their fourth win.

Pick: Tampa Bay ML +100 (Foxbet) 1 Unit

 

Detroit Lions (-3.5, -180) at Jacksonville Jaguars

O/U: 54.5

The Detroit Lions are a mess, but they somehow still make every week interesting. The passing game hasn't been anything to write home about, but Matthew Stafford has weapons in Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and T.J. Hockenson. All three are healthy, and while none of have exactly taken over, they have a juicy matchup against the Jaguars. The running game is a total disaster, which doesn't help matters for the offense, but I think Matt Patricia is fine with throwing it all over the yard (averaging 34 attempts per game). One benefit for the unit is their ability to get to the red zone, averaging 4.5 trips per game. They just need to work on cashing in for a touchdown at more than a 55% clip.

The Jaguars Defense is one of the league's worst, ranking 32nd in passing DVOA and 20th against the run. Losers of four straight, Jacksonville has surrendered at least 123 yards on the ground in all of those games, and have allowed 991 total yards over their last two. Not a good recent performance. However, they do seem to have a bend but don't break approach, allowing around 54% of opponent's red zone trips to end in a touchdown.

It's not fun gambling on the Lions, especially when they struggle with any amount of consistency. However, with as bad as the Jags' defense is, I see Stafford and co. being able to take the top off and make some noise in Week 6.

Pick: Detroit Team Total Over 28.5 (-115, Draftkings) 1 Unit

 

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

O/U: 55

The Cardinals came into this season with some lofty expectations and despite a bad loss to the aforementioned Lions, things could be worse. Kyler Murray has done well leading the offense, averaging over 395 ypg. However, his six interceptions make you raise your eye brow a bit. He’s made up for it with the five rushing scores, complementing Kenyan Drake quite nicely. DeAndre Hopkins has maintained his role as a reception receptacle, hailing in 45 balls but only scoring twice thus far. Utilizing their weapons better will be key moving forward. Defensively, they are going to have their hands full, especially in the run game, where they’ve allowed over 90 yards in every game thus far. They’ve yet to allow over 276 yards passing, but they also haven’t faced an offense of this caliber.

Dallas might be missing Dak Prescott, but it's hard to see this offense skipping a beat. No, Andy Dalton isn't a Super Bowl winning signal caller, but with Ezekiel Elliott behind him, and Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup to throw to, this offense is surely just as potent. They've averaged 38 ppg at home thus far and it's not like Arizona is some juggernaut who will stop them, especially after losing pass-rush extraordinar Chandler Jones (bicep) for the season. Defensively is where some issues lie, as the Cowboys can’t stop anyone, allowing 34 or more points in each of the last four games, including last week’s gross affair with the Giants.

I get it. Without Dak Prescott, the Cowboys shouldn't be favored. He was their guy. I'm in no way saying Dalton is anything special, but the guy deserves some respect, especially with the weapons he now has to throw to. With Zeke behind him and those threats in the passing game, it's hard to imagine Dallas skipping any major beats. Trust in the talent on Dallas and don't doubt them in Jerry's World.

Pick: Dallas ML (+106, Draftkings) 1 Unit



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NFL DFS Prop Picks for Sunday (10/18/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Week 6 of the NFL season is upon us, which means a busy Sunday full of opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The season is now officially in bye week territory, and not just “Covid-19 cancelled the game so we’re calling it a bye” territory. Four teams had byes last week. Four more again this week and that includes the Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and Seahawks.

With a lighter schedule, you might think that the league would consider a bit of a balance between the early and late schedules but, of course, you would be wrong. There are nine games going early on Sunday afternoon, with just two games in the late afternoon window. I know, Brady vs. Rodgers is in that late window but it’s still a little tilted. Anyway, that should mean a better selection when looking at the early games on the Star Shootout.

Here are some Star Shootout angles to consider for Sunday’s NFL games on Monkey Knife Fight:

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'BALLER'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Matt Ryan MORE THAN 294.5 PASSING YARDS

It’s been a brutal season for the Falcons, and not so great for this week’s opposition, the Minnesota Vikings. Ryan has averaged 294.4 passing yards per game this season but that number is inflated by his 450 yards passing in Week 1. He has been held to 285 passing yards or fewer in each of the past four games. Minnesota’s pass defense hasn’t been very good, at least in part because of injuries in the secondary, and they’re allowing 271.4 passing yards per game, 7.5 net yards per pass attempt. That is vulnerable enough for Ryan to have success through the air.

Ben Roethlisberger LESS THAN 273.5 PASSING YARDS

This may come down to just how much the Steelers need to throw the ball because they haven’t had to chuck it that much on their way to a 4-0 record. Roethlisberger is averaging 254 passing yards per game and while the Browns Defense has allowed 296.4 passing yards per game, which is among the highest in the league, they are only giving up 6.5 net yards per pass attempt, which is right around league average.

Teddy Bridgewater LESS THAN 265.5 PASSING YARDS

The Panthers passing game has been surprisingly potent as Bridgewater is averaging 292 passing yards per game. However, the Bears Defense is good, really good. They have allowed 230.8 passing yards per game, which is good. They have allowed 5.7 net yards per pass attempt which is great, ranking third in the league. All that suggests that it could be a challenging day for Bridgewater.

Derrick Henry MORE THAN 105.5 RUSHING YARDS

This is a big number even for great runner like Henry. He is averaging 94 rushing yards through the first four games and has gone for more than 106 yards twice. He’s also going up against a Texans team that is surrendering 4.7 yards per carry and 160.4 rushing yards per game, they will certainly be vulnerable against the league’s most forceful runner. So even with that huge number, this might be the right matchup for Henry to get the job done.

RAPID FIRE

Allen Robinson -0.5 receptions vs. Julio Jones

After griping early in the season about not getting enough looks, Robinson has 27 catches on 39 targets in the past three games. Jones has missed the past couple of games with a hamstring injury and before that was targeted four times in each of the previous two games. That health uncertainty makes Robinson the safer play as a favorite.

Deshaun Watson +1.5 fantasy points vs. Lamar Jackson

As bad as the Texans have been overall, Watson is still productive enough, passing for more than 290 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. He also goes against a Titans teams that has been of the bend-don’t-break style of defense, so they have given up some yardage. Jackson has been good this season but not as electric as he was in 2019. There isn’t enough of an advantage going against Philadelphia’s defense to like Jackson as the favorite here.

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Aaron Rodgers LESS THAN 305.5 PASSING YARDS

Rodgers is having a fantastic season, which includes 13 touchdown passes in four games and he is averaging 303.5 passing yards per contest. He faces a Buccaneers Defense that is better than average, allowing 239.8 passing yards per game and 6.1 net yards per pass attempt.

Tom Brady LESS THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS

Brady has been productive in Tampa Bay, even though he’s had some key players miss time with injuries. He is averaging 275 passing yards per game and faces a Packers team allowing 247.5 passing yards per game and 6.8 net yards per pass attempt, which is fairly mediocre overall. This game could turn into a shootout between two legendary quarterbacks but they also could throw for 275 yards and three touchdowns apiece.

Aaron Jones MORE THAN 68.5 RUSHING YARDS

Jones is awesome, averaging 93.5 rushing yards per game this season, but he is facing a Bucs defense that is as sturdy against the run as any team in the league, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and an average of 58.4 rushing yards against per game. A slight lean towards the over.

Chris Godwin LESS THAN 16.5 FANTASY POINTS

Godwin has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury so that makes it difficult to count on a huge day in his return to action and producing at least 17 fantasy points, even with a PPR format, is still a big day.

RAPID FIRE

Davante Adams -0.5 receptions vs. Jamison Crowder

A bit of a running trend here is that some top receivers have been missing time recently due to hamstring injuries and that goes for Adams, who has missed the past two games and left early in Week 2. But, Adams is also the primary target for Aaron Rodgers and that included 17 targets and 14 catches in Week 1. Crowder is quite productive, and has 22 catches on 33 targets in the three games that he has played this season but there is a difference between being the No. 1 receiving option for Aaron Rodgers and the No. 1 receiving option for Joe Flacco.



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NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Expert Picks and Lineups for Week 6 (Premium Content)


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NFL DFS RB and WR Anchors For Week 6 (Premium Content)


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NFL DFS Stacks: Week 6 (Premium Content)


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NFL DFS Must Avoids and Injuries for Week 6 (Premium Content)


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