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PGA Betting Advice - Sanderson Farms

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (74-39-8), netting over 42 units of profit and nearly a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection 

Hudson Swafford -110 over Rory Sabbatini

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Most people are taking Hudson Swafford's victory at Corales Puntacana to be an aberrational result, but I am not. Swafford was included in last week's premium top-20 recommendations during my Vegas Report article, and the alumni out of the University of Georgia continues to be an underrated commodity this weekend in Jackson, Mississippi. Rory Sabbatini is getting a little too much credit for his two top-60 finishes here in his last two attempts, and the five consecutive showings outside the top-59 are starting to present a poor case for the 107th-ranked player in the world.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

This is a much bigger recommendation than I typically suggest for this article and only is being included here because of the selection I have on tap in my Vegas Report. For all intents and purposes, this wager qualifies as a premium head-to-head bet. If we are looking for any negatives, Swafford isn't exactly a beacon of consistency, but I am willing to overlook those flaws because of Sabbatini's statistical atrocity as of late. I'd have priced this correctly at -140, meaning we are gaining around a six percent edge in terms of implied probability.

1.25 Units to Win 1.14

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (14-12-3)

0.82 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
PGA Championship Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Wyndham Championship Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Northern Trust Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35
Safeway Open Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 T14 (-15) T29 (-13) Win 1.32
U.S. Open Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 T23 (+10) MC (+14) Win 1.17
Corales Puntacana Denny McCarthy -120 over Henrik Stenson 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T41 (-6) T21 (-9) Win -1.2

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

24-22-0 (+4.74 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74
Tour Championship Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T18 (-5) T27 (+1) Win 0.7
Tour Championship Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl 0.85 Units to win 1.20 T24 (E) 30 (+4) Win 1.2
Tour Championship Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson 0.65 Units to win 1.11 T12 (-9) 1 (-21) Loss -0.65
Tour Championship Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson 0.45 Units to win 1.22 T2 (-18) 1 (-21) Loss -0.45
Corales Puntacana Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners 0.7 Units to win 0.70 T28 (-8) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Corales Puntacana Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder 0.70 Units to win 0.77 T33 (-7) T52 (-5) Win 0.77
Corales Puntacana Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III 0.70 Units to win 0.70 5 (-14) MC (E) Win 0.7

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open 33 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Justin Thomas Tour Championship 6 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Webb Simpson U.S. Open 50 8
Luke List Corales Puntacana 66 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
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PGA Betting Advice - Corales Puntacana

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (74-38-8), netting over 43 units of profit and slightly over a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection 

Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I believe name recognition for Charles Howell III has provided him a little more credit than he deserves for the week. The 41-year-old ranks outside the top-100 with his irons over his previous 24 rounds and fails to crack the top-50 compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

While I do like Adam Long and the general safety he provides, Howell isn't a natural head-to-head target because of his high percentage of made cuts. That doesn't mean we can't pinpoint an edge on a battle that will most likely go four days, but there is always more of a risk when things can go wrong on the weekend. I'd have made Long a -120 favorite and believe we are gaining around a 4.5 percent edge in terms of implied win probability.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It has been all-or-nothing for Sam Ryder since the beginning of 2020, as the 233rd-ranked player in the world has missed 10 of 18 cuts to go along with five top-30 finishes.  That level of volatility typically makes for a good golfer to target in the head-to-head spectrum, and Ryder's failed venture at the venue in 2018 adds to my optimism that we may see him miss out on another weekend.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Frankly, Ryder is the better statistical fit for Corales Puntacana. Three missed cuts in a row versus Rob Oppenheim's three consecutive top-36 results can only go so far, and there is a chance that we see Ryder turn it on in a big way to get himself out of his slump. For that reason, I am not entirely opposed to playing the American in GPP contests on DraftKings, but I do believe we are off by about 25 points from a head-to-head perspective.

0.70 Units to Win 0.77

 

Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Statistically, Sam Burns grades out as my most likely winner this weekend at Corales Golf Club. The 24-year-old has been trending towards his first PGA Tour victory, and the overall level of erraticness from Corey Conners can't be understated. Conners is not only 50/50 in made cuts at the venue in his two tries but is also 50/50 over his last six events on tour. I think there is a chance that we sneak a missed cut out of Conners, but more likely, I think Burns' upside can bypass that of what we get out of the Canadian.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

We could have a dogfight on our hands for four days. It doesn't take away from the fact that I want to find a way to identify some exposure to Burns after not selecting him in the outright market, nor does it ignore the nearly 4.5 percent edge that we have on the play. Still, though, Conners is always just a hot putter away from having a chance to compete for the title, and his overall makeup isn't that of someone that we are clamoring to fade.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (14-11-3)

2.02 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35
Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 T14 (-15) T29 (-13) Win 1.32
Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 T23 (+10) MC (+14) Win 1.17

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

21-22-0 (+2.57 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74
Tour Championship Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T18 (-5) T27 (+1) Win 0.7
Tour Championship Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl 0.85 Units to win 1.20 T24 (E) 30 (+4) Win 1.2
Tour Championship Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson 0.65 Units to win 1.11 T12 (-9) 1 (-21) Loss -0.65
Tour Championship Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson 0.45 Units to win 1.22 T2 (-18) 1 (-21) Loss -0.45

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open 33 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Justin Thomas Tour Championship 6 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Webb Simpson U.S. Open 50 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

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More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

PGA Betting Advice - Tour Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (72-38-8), netting over 41 units of profit and nearly a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection (All Plays Feature Built-In Scoring For The Tour Championship)

Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Getting a one-shot edge with Lanto Griffin over Kevin Na might not seem like a ton on the surface, but it does further amplify the advantage when I had Griffin at about -110 before the bonus. Na brings very minimal form into the week and has struggled in recent years at East Lake, failing to crack the top-25 in his previous two showings.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

The picture becomes a little better for Na when we remove current form from the equation. The American ranks inside the top-17 compared to the field in strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green and is also second in total putting. The range of outcomes will be higher for Na, but I am willing to take him on in a market that isn't properly giving its respects to Griffin.

0.80 Units to Win 0.70

 

Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horschel

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I understand the intrigue around Billy Horschel at East Lake. A second-place finish at the property in 2018 to go along with four top-25s in his past seven tournaments is no doubt impressive, but the public support has become too one-sided in the head-to-head market. I have Palmer as a very slight favorite before getting the one-stroke advantage and will take my built-in edge that is being offered.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I don't have a premium play this weekend. Palmer over Horschel would have been the favorite to fit into that slot.

0.85 Units to Win 1.20

 

Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I have Justin Thomas as my winner for the Tour Championship, so you better believe I am going to take him against a golfer that I am going to be fading for the week. The is no question that DJ is capable of walking out of East Lake with the grand prize, but it is important to remember that his range of outcomes is wider than the average tour player. We are only a few weeks removed from Johnson posting back-to-back 80s, and I am hoping the switch to Bermuda slows him down slightly since he is typically a better putter on Bent/Poa.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

We are still opposing the number one player in the world in this matchup and giving him a three-shot lead to begin the show. I can think the price is incorrect, but it is always scary to oppose Johnson when he is possessing this much form.

0.65 Units to Win 1.11

 

Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

If fading Dustin Johnson once wasn't good enough, let's go back to the well a second time. Don't get me wrong, the 36-year-old is the deserving favorite to beat Simpson, but where do we draw the line with the amount of value they are offering on the play? I could argue this is nearly 70 points too high, and Johnson's level of volatility could turn this into nearly a 50/50 proposition by the end of round one.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Same reasons as Thomas over Johnson.

0.45 Units to Win 1.22

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (12-11-3)

-0.47 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
PGA Championship Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Wyndham Championship Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Northern Trust Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

19-20-0 (+1.77 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

PGA Betting Advice - Northern Trust

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (72-37-8), netting over 42 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection

Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

My math has this grading out at nearly -135 in favor of Ryan Palmer, giving us a four percent edge in terms of implied probability. Palmer hasn't been immune to his fair share of erratic results, but it is Reavie that looks on the shaky side of things after missing his two previous cuts and failing to come inside the top-60 at TPC Boston since 2016.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Palmer hasn't always been someone I've been able to pinpoint with my recommendations at RotoBaller (3-2-1) record over six plays, and I do worry that Chez Reavie is a better statistical fit than my math may indicate.

0.80 Units to Win 0.70

 

Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

While the general consensus around Byeong Hun An is that his volatility makes him a tough player to get behind in the head-to-head market, I see this as an opportunity to grab the 28-year-old in a territory below his skillset. Hun An has quietly put together back-to-back top-22 results at the WGC and PGA Championship and looks like a natural fit to keep that momentum rolling in Boston.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I hate to say it, but I really liked what I saw from Russell Henley at the Wyndham Championship. My model doesn't seem to be in agreement with my eye-test, but Henley looked magnificent en route to gaining a total of 7.1 strokes tee to green. TPC Boston is a more difficult venue that will test some of his deficiencies, but there is no denying that the American looks to have turned his game around recently. I have this properly priced at -135 - once again giving us a smidge below a five percent edge.

0.77 Units to Win 0.70

 

Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I think people are underestimating just how much skill off the tee you are going to need to compete during the first leg of the FedExCup playoffs. TPC Boston is a venue that has tree-lined fairways that can potentially come into play, but distance is going to far outweigh accuracy because of the overall open nature of the layout. Webb Simpson has shown himself to be more volatile so far in 2020, which has allowed him to find the winner's circle twice, but it hasn't been all sunshine and roses with two missed cuts over his previous seven events.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

It didn't miss by much. Simpson has failed to finish inside the top-40 in his past four showings at the venue, and I am still not fully writing off the supposed rib injury that he took into the Wyndham Championship. TPC Boston will test him substantially more off the tee, and I am interested to see if any negative effects take place along the way. There is some humor in talking about a potential injury of an opponent of Jason Day, but this isn't my favorite spot for the American.

0.74 Units to Win 0.70

 

Top-20 Recommendations (All Ties Pay Fully)

Jon Rahm (+100) - 0.75 to Win 0.75

There are a few things that have enhanced Jon Rahm in my model and made him a profitable wager to back at +100. For starters, the reduced nature of the field does subtract around 30 additional golfers that would take up some portion of a percentage in making the top-20, and it doesn't hurt matters that Rahm is grading out for me to be the most steady option of anyone in the field. We have seen him perform admirably at difficult tests in the past, and his total driving skillset should be rewarded handsomely at the first FedExCup stop.

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (12-10-3)

0.88 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
PGA Championship Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Wyndham Championship Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

18-18-0 (+2.58 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10


Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

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More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
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PGA Betting Advice - Wyndham Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (71-37-8), netting over 41 units of profit and a 65% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection

Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

We have seen a ton of reverse line movement on this play so far in the week, with Henley dropping from a -130 favorite down to a virtual pick'em at -110. I thought the opening line of -130 was spot-on for where the number should have been, and it is hard to ignore the four percent advantage of implied win probability we are getting over my math. Poston's victory here last season seems to be attracting some sharp money into the market, but his poor iron play recently has my model raising a red flag.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Frankly, it just comes down to a lack of upside potential for Henley. Head-to-head bets are not about trying to pinpoint the winner of the tournament, but his deficiency of birdie-making prowess might be his eventual downfall at an event that is going to require a score inside the 20s to win. Poston has proven he can get to that total at Sedgefield Country Club in the past, and his improvements on Bermuda over all other surfaces is a notable one.

0.77 Units to Win 0.70

 

Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

We get two guys who are heading in opposite directions over the last month. Cameron Davis has compiled back-to-back top-35 finishes, including a 22nd place result at this week's venue last season. Vegas, on the other hand, hasn't made a cut since the Workday Charity Open and continues to struggle with his irons and short game.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I have trepidation behind this play for a few reasons. It would be naive to deal in absolutes when it comes to both Davis and Vegas' recent form. I don't believe the Aussie is this steady or consistent, and I know for a fact that Vegas is not this bad - especially when it comes to his ball-striking nature. This play does have my biggest disparity difference of the week at nearly 10% off of what it should be when it comes to implied probability, but I can't say I am overly enthusiastic for the reasons mentioned above. It feels like one of those spots where my model is being a little too sensitive to limited recent results, but it is still worth a play at a plus-number.

0.64 Units to Win 0.70

 

Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It has become a weekly practice for us of fading Chris Kirk in this article. I continue to stand by this narrative that the American is overvalued because of the traction he has gained by the media over his recent troubles off the golf course, but it is not as if it has done us a ton of good by going 2-3 over our past 5 attempts of opposing him. I'm a firm believer that his top-25 in Detroit can be chalked up to some lucky around the green shots, and it is not as if he has provided anything else inside the top-25 since March of 2019.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Of all the weeks we have faded Chris Kirk, Sedgefield Country Club does make the most sense for him to find success with his game. It should allow the American to use his mid-iron skills to receive a boost in his often faulty approach numbers, and it also will provide him with a chance to find scoring opportunities at an easier venue. Kirk remains a better fade when the going gets tough, and it doesn't help that some of Sam Burns' off the tee abilities will get negated this week.

0.58 Units to Win 0.70

 

Adding

Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson

Adding Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson. I have these two at a virtual coin flip for the week. Webb isn't a person I'm actively looking to fade, but this number has gotten carried away.

0.65 Units to Win 1.04

 

Top-20 Recommendations (All Ties Pay Fully)

Patrick Reed (+100) - 0.75 to Win 0.75

Most 16/1 shots aren't going to equate to being even-money to finish inside the top-20 in fields of 156 players, but that is assuming 16/1 is the proper price on the surface. I have Reed as my most likely person to walk out of North Carolina victorious, and I believe his overall level of consistency and upside plays across the board in all contests and bets.

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-10-3)

-0.12 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
PGA Championship Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-17-0 (+1.13 Units)

Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7

Premium Top-20

8-of-36 (+4.78 Units)

Tournament Bet Odds Risk Units Potential Win Result Outcome
PGA Championship Abraham Ancer 2.8 0.5 1.4 Loss -0.5
PGA Championship Henrik Stenson 4 0.25 1 Loss -0.25
PGA Championship Corey Conners 4 0.25 1 Loss -0.25
PGA Championship Brendan Steele 5.5 0.18 0.99 Loss -0.18
PGA Championship Joel Dahmen 6 0.17 1.02 Win 1.02
PGA Championship Russell Henley 7 0.19 1.33 Loss -0.19
PGA Championship Lucas Glover 7 0.16 1.12 Loss -0.16
PGA Championship Brian Harman 7 0.15 1.05 Loss -0.15
PGA Championship Harold Varner III 10 0.1 1 Loss -0.1
PGA Championship Brooks Koepka (NOT T10) -150 1.5 1 Win 1
WGC-St. Jude Corey Conners 3 0.35 1.05 Loss -0.35
WGC-St. Jude Corey Conners (T10) 8 0.13 1.04 Loss -0.13
WGC-St. Jude Scottie Scheffler 3 0.34 1.02 Win 1.02
WGC-St. Jude Scottie Scheffler (T10) 8 0.13 1.04 Loss -0.13
WGC-St. Jude Nick Taylor 9 0.15 1.35 Loss -0.15
WGC-St. Jude Cameron Champ 5 0.21 1.05 Loss -0.21
WGC-St. Jude Cameron Champ (T10) 14 0.09 1.26 Loss -0.09
3M Open Bubba Watson (T10) 3 0.35 1.05 Loss -0.35
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas 3 0.38 1.14 Loss -0.38
3M Open Max Homa 3 0.35 1.05 Win 1.05
3M Open Sepp Straka 3.5 0.3 1.05 Win 1.05
3M Open Will Gordon 3.5 0.3 1.05 Loss -0.3
3M Open Aaron Wise 4 0.25 1 Loss -0.25
3M Open Adam Schenk 4 0.25 1 Loss -0.25
3M Open Ryan Brehm 14 0.22 3.08 Loss -0.22
Memorial Matthew NeSmith 8 0.15 1.2 Loss -0.15
Memorial Sergio Garcia 3 0.5 1.5 Loss -0.5
Memorial Tony Finau 2.4 0.6 1.44 Win 1.44
Memorial Webb Simpson 1.1 0.9 0.99 Loss -0.9
Memorial Hideki Matsuyama 1.2 0.85 1.02 Loss -0.85
Memorial Xander Schauffele 1.3 0.8 1.04 Win 1.04
Memorial Rory McIlroy (T10) 1.6 0.7 1.12 Loss -0.7
RBC Heritage Matthew NeSmith 8 0.65 5.2 Loss -0.65
RBC Heritage Bernhard Langer 20 0.25 5 Loss -0.25
Charles Schwab Bernhard Langer 20 0.25 5 Loss -0.25
Charles Schwab Corey Conners 6 1 6 Win 6

Free Top-20

2-of-8 (+0.94 Units)

Tournament Bet Odds Risk Units Potential Win Result Outcome
PGA Championship Tony Finau (T5) R4 3.5 0.3 1.05 Win 1.05
Barracuda Seamus Power (T5) 30 0.06 1.8 Loss -0.06
Barracuda Seamus Power 6 0.17 1.02 Win 1.02
Barracuda Ryan Brehm (T5) 50 0.05 2.5 Loss -0.05
Barracuda Ryan Brehm 10 0.1 1 Loss -0.1
3M Open Cameron Davis (T5) R4 4.5 0.25 1.125 Loss -0.25
3M Open Doc Redman 2.5 0.3 0.75 Loss -0.3
3M Open Luke List 2 0.37 0.74 Loss -0.37

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
 (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

PGA Betting Advice - Barracuda Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (71-37-7), netting over 41 units of profit and a success rate of nearly 66%. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Barracuda Championship

#1 - Sam Burns - 33/1

We have a first-time track for the Barracuda Championship, which adds to the dynamic of the event using Stableford scoring. For those that don't know how Stableford works, golfers will receive a modified point total based on their production. An albatross earns you eight points, eagle five, birdie two, par zero, bogey negative-one and double bogey or worse negative-three. Unlike most weeks where you are trying to post the lowest score possible, this tournament will be won by the player who yields the highest sum.

With the venue playing almost 5,900-feet above elevation, the 7,500 yards placed in front of the players will feel more like 6,800 yards when all is said and done. That means that distance off the tee may become even more enhanced with medium width fairways, and while there are trees that can come into play, I'd prefer length and ball-striking above all other non-scoring statistics.

All four par-fives at Tahoe Mountain Club are reachable in two shots, not to mention that at least two par-fours can be attacked off the tee. I believe the added distance we discussed will give players a better chance to find scoring opportunities, but it is not as if mistakes won't be punished at the track with water in play on six of the holes.

The first price that caught my eye this week was Sam Burns, who enters the event priced at his closing number during last week's 3M Open. It is dangerous to look at wagers in that fashion because one overpriced option doesn't automatically yield value when given the same number in a weaker field, but it does become curious when Burns pops up as the top-ranked player in my model.

Inside the top-10 compared to the field in strokes gained off the tee, eagles gained, par-five birdie or better percentage and driving distance, Burns enters the week having posted four consecutive top-32 results - giving him the second-best average finish result for any golfer that has played at least three events since the Puerto Rico Open.

There are some concerns that his irons and ball-striking won't be up to par at a venue that will require consistent scoring and fewer mistakes, but it is difficult to ignore his par-five scoring ability and quality putting over the field.

0.24 Units to Win 8.00

 

#2 - Jhonattan Vegas - 50/1

It was a disappointing week for all of us that backed Jhonattan Vegas during the 3M Open. The 35-year-old stumbled with a myriad of water balls during his failed two-day performance, and it didn't help matters that he lost nearly four strokes with his putter. However, despite what felt like an insufferable display from the three-time PGA Tour winner, there were many positives to take out of his short stay in Minnesota.

Not only did Vegas miss the cut on the number after all that went wrong, but he also gained 4.9 when we combine his off the tee and approach numbers. That combination of success could be a deadly one at Tahoe Mountain Club, and it becomes even further enhanced when we dive deeper into his scoring acumen.

Vegas is known to make mistakes, ranking 122nd compared to the field in bogey avoidance over his past 50 rounds, but the trouble typically stops there when we look at his second-place standing of doubles or worse avoided. The Barracuda Championship is an event that rewards birdies over bogeys, and if the Venezuelan can keep the big numbers off his card, his ball-striking prowess could shine through for an outright victory. I am fine playing this wager down to 35/1, although I don't think we see this move as drastically as that.

0.20 Units to Win 10.00

 

#3 - Will Gordon - 50/1

Will Gordon is a tough nut to crack because of the limited data we have on him so far during his career. He continues to be someone that grades out better for me than he should because of the handful of robust results he has thrown into the mix, but there is a downside that was displayed at the 3M Open of what happens when things go wrong.

Gordon ranks first in my model when it comes to birdie or better percentage, and he enters the week inside the top-10 in opportunities gained over his past 50 rounds. His 97th place ranking in bogey avoidance is concerning, but we do see him jump up to 39th compared to the field in escaping double bogey or worse.

When we take into account all the factors involved, 50/1 is a fair price for the 23-year-old as he figures out how to become more consistent on tour. The Stableford scoring does make this more appealing than it typically would because of the way Gordon can fire up birdies in bunches, but there is volatility in play with this selection. I have him properly priced at 45/1, giving us a slight long-term edge.

0.16 Units to Win 8.00

#4 - Adam Schenk - 60/1

Make it three straight top-41 finishes for Adam Schenk after the American was able to rally on Sunday at the 3M Open with a final round 67. I feel as if Schenk has transformed himself recently into a golfer that has learned how to make a paycheck in these stronger field tournaments, and the reduction in class makes him an intriguing upside option to consider at the Barracuda Championship.

Schenk does most of his damage off the tee and with his ball-striking, and if his birdie percentage can increase for the week, his usual steady play should allow him to skyrocket up the leaderboard. Schenk also ranks inside the top-30 compared to the field in eagles gained and is someone who is quietly asserting his name as a weekly threat.

0.13 Units to Win 8.00

 

#5 - Cameron Davis - 60/1

Arguably my favorite value play on the board, Cameron Davis' big-hitting style mixed with his ability to score is an ideal combination for a tournament that is played under different rules.

Davis has provided four top-12 finishes in his previous 12 worldwide starts, and the Aussie appears like he is once again ready to continue his early-season onslaught that produced seven straight made cuts between third and 38th place.

The 213th-ranked player in the world grades out second over his last 24 rounds in eagles gained and is ranked inside the top-15 in par-five scoring, ball striking and driving distance.

0.16 Units to Win 10.00

 

#6 - Aaron Wise - 80/1

I'm not sure I can think of a style of golf that would suit Aaron Wise better than Stableford. Wise is an explosive young golfer that makes birdies in bunches, yet his propensity for posting a lofty number on a hole has taken him out of contests in the past. Sure, that will also hurt him at an event like we have this weekend, but he can take a negative-three here and there when two birdies will negate the damage.

Wise has only made five of 16 cuts on the year, but he is actually near even on strokes gained during that duration of time. Consider the American a strong bounce-back candidate that might make noise if he can keep his mistakes limited.

0.10 Units to Win 8.00

 

#7 - Ryan Brehm - 250/1

If we exclude Ryan Brehm's previous two failed ventures at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage, the American had made eight of his previous nine cuts on tour.

The 34-year-old finds the majority of his issues around the green and with his putter, and the hope is that his driving ability will shine through at a venue that could reward his birdie-making skills. This number continues to be overinflated and is worth a shot in this weakened field.

0.03 Units to Win 7.50

 

***Add

Seamus Power - 150/1

Higher price this week than last. Too much value to ignore in this field.

0.04 Units to Win 6.00

 

T20 Odds Stake To Win Total Payout
Ryan Brehm 10 0.1 1 1.1
Ryan Brehm (T5) 50 0.05 2.5 2.55
Seamus Power 6 0.17 1.02 1.19
Seamus Power (T5) 30 0.06 1.8 1.86

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-10-2)

-0.12 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-17-0 (+1.13 Units)

Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7

 

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10


Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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PGA Betting Advice - 3M Open

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (83-41-8), netting over 45 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection

Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman -195

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I think one of the misunderstood concepts in sports betting is the term "value." When I say that I don't have Peter Uihlein winning this matchup as often as Brian Harman, it raises some eyebrows as to why am I betting on a golfer who won't win as frequently as his opponent. However, at the end of the day, everything has a price worth betting if we set a line high or low enough. If you wanted to sit there and flip coins 1,000,000 times and you would give me $1.10 every time it comes heads and I give you $1.00 every time it comes tails, I am going to use my long-term edge for the full duration of flips, even if it has come tails 20 straight times. That is the best way to describe finding value in sports. I have Uihlein properly priced at +130, giving us an edge of seven percent in terms of implied win probability.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

It is difficult for me to find many statistical reasons to get behind Peter Uihlein. The American has blow-up potential, isn't a good driver of the ball and has been shaky as of late. The same sentiments can be said about Brian Harman when push comes to shove, but his upside is clearly more pronounced than that of Uihlein. Consider this to be a number grab.

0.50 Units to Win 0.88

 

Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Not as big of a disparity in this matchup as the first one, but we are back in a more typical situation where Russell Henley is the wrong man favorite. Doc Redman's missed cut at this venue last year mixed with his failed venture last weekend at Muirfield Village has stunted his outlook for some, but it's a good spot for us to use his slight mispricing to extract value out of a head-to-head wager. Henley's price across the board is a little overvalued to me, and while I am not necessarily discounting his chances to find success, I do believe his projections have been placed in the wrong threshold of players. I have Redman accurately priced at right around -120, and it is enough to take our four percent edge and run with it.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Henley isn't a natural fade from a statistical perspective. His game fits decently for how we should expect TPC Twin Cities to play, and his recent form has been impressive with four top-32 showings in his previous five events. All of that short-term success is outweighing what my model deems to be correct over a longer period of time, but it is worth noting that I tend to be late to the party when discussing changes to the norm in these situations.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It feels as if Chris Kirk has become someone we are looking to fade in this article weekly. The story of him overcoming his addiction is a reason to get behind the American, but feel-good narratives don't work in the gambling world. That anecdote has been told numerous times in recent weeks, and I do think it has caused Kirk to draw more interest than he typically would if we didn't have a tale to point towards.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I hope I am wrong, but I don't like or trust Ryan Armour in Minnesota. My model has the incorrect man being favorite by about 25 points, but it doesn't mean I entirely trust Armour to hold up his end of the bargain. There does seem to be a decent chance that we see this matchup go MC/MC, which will leave us sweating a Friday finish.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

Top-20 Recommendations (All Ties Pay Fully)

Luke List (+200) - 0.37 Units to Win 0.74

It has been nice to see Luke List show some signs of life after a troublesome past year on tour. The big-hitting American has recorded two-straight top-21 results, including an impressive share of 10th last weekend at Muirfield Village.

Doc Redman (+250) - 0.30 to Win 0.75

For some reason, Doc Redman's price has continued to slide throughout all markets since Monday. I have him as the sixth-rated player on my model, and the 22-year-old has provided three top-21 results in his previous four events. His missed cut at the Memorial should be thrown out the window because of the tough course conditions and not having to play four grueling rounds might work as a benefit for him this week.

First-Round Leader

Dustin Johnson 25/1 - 0.10 to Win 2.20

Doc Redman 50/1 - 0.04 to Win 2.00

Jhonattan Vegas 66/1 - 0.03 to Win 1.98

Ryan Brehm 200/1 - 0.03 to Win 6.00

 

I don't do much dabbling in the first-round leader market but have been asked to give some recommendations. I'd approach these plays with extreme caution, which explains the limited win totals given.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-6-2)

+4.58 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-14-0 (+2.93 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
 (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

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Categories
Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

PGA Betting Advice - Memorial

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (83-41-8), netting over 45 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection

Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

We have in front of us two players going in opposite directions since the restart. Lucas Glover has competed in four of the five events, finishing no worse than a share of 23rd place at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Scottie Scheffler, on the other hand, has yet to finish better than 55th place in his four starts and has missed three cuts in a row.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I can't quite pinpoint what is going wrong with Scheffler's game since golf has come back into the limelight, but there is no arguing that his upside far surpasses that of Glover. Scheffler does lose some of his built-in edge with the venue expected to mitigate his OTT prowess in the second week at Muirfield Village, but it is not as if Glover doesn't have potential landmines around the green of his own that he will have to endure. I believe we have a four percent edge currently in terms of implied probability and would be fine playing this up to -130.

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

 

Sungjae Im +10o over Billy Horschel -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

The three-month layoff has hurt Sungjae Im more than perhaps any player on tour, but it is important to keep in mind that his lack of results has helped to push him into a skill territory beneath his level of play. Billy Horschel is receiving a slight boost in terms of his price after his share of seventh at the venue just a week ago, but there are some concerns that his poor par-five and approach numbers will catch up to him in a week that will require second-shot success. Horschel is ranked just 85th in my model compared to the field with his irons and ranks outside the top-70 in scrambling, sand save percentage and par-five birdie or better.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

It is difficult to trust Im at this moment. Four straight weeks of losing strokes with his irons should signify something is potentially wrong, but I am willing to go with my math on this wager. I have Im properly priced at -120 over Horschel, giving us about a four percent edge on this head-to-head bet.

1.03 Units to Win 1.00

 

Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter -115

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

A lot seems to have been forgotten about Adam Hadwin's round last weekend at the Workday Charity Open. The Canadian boosted out to a quick start to jump into second place after round one but faltered down the stretch to post a somewhat disappointing 35th place showing. It is important to remember that while Ian Poulter's fifth-place showing was impressive, there are bogey avoidance issues that could come into play at a more difficult Muirfield Village in week two.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Hadwin is a pretty producer across the board for me in my model, but it doesn't negate the shaky past he has had at the venue. An MDF finish in 2018 to go along with a missed cut in 2017 will loom as something that makes me somewhat leery, but there should still be enough safety there to overcome the fear of a missed cut.

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

 

Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners -140

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

This is more of a number grab than anything else. I'm not necessarily in the market to fade Corey Conners from a statistical standpoint, but I do believe the casino has the wrong man favorite for this matchup. I have Lowry winning this contest slightly over 51% of the time, providing us with a six percent win percentage edge at his +120 number. I believe there is a chance that this price could drift more in our favor before Thursday, but I would keep an eye on it over the next few days

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

As mentioned above, Conners isn't someone I am actively looking to take on from a statistical standpoint. The Canadian is one of the premier players in the world tee to green and is arguably the best ball-striker in the world. The 28-year-old could find trouble if his short game does come into play at Muirfield Village, but there is upside for him to find success if he can stay out of the rough. For what it is worth, this wager has my largest disparity in pricing of anything on the board, but we are still looking at roughly a 50/50 outcome.

0.88 Units to Win 1.06

 

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-6-2)

+4.58 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

14-11-0 (+4.91 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75

 

2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10

 

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
 (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

PGA Betting Advice - RBC Heritage Picks

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-40-7), netting over 45 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 18 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and three so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection

Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello -105

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

For what it is worth, Byeong Hun An over Rafa Cabrera Bello is grading out to have the highest win equity advantage for me of any play on the card. Part of the reason behind this is due to Cabrera Bello's poor scoring numbers, although that doesn't become quite as pronounced at shorter venues. Still, though, Cabrera Bello ranks outside the top-100 over his previous 50 rounds in GIR, proximity from 150-200 yards, par-four and five scoring, good drive percentage, birdies or better gained and strokes gained approach.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I typically don't deviate away from what my math says, but something is causing me slight trepidation with Hun An's volatility level. European players with limited rounds on the PGA Tour yearly will also grade lower than anticipated, and a venue such as Harbour Town does suit the Spaniard's game to a T. There is enough advantage there for me to overlook some of my concerns, but it doesn't mean I am jumping for joy behind the selection.

0.75 Units to Win 0.65

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

First Round Leader

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick 60/1
  • Brian Harman 80/1
  • Byeong Hun An 80/1
  • Maverick McNealy 125/1
  • Russell Henley 125/1
  • Bronson Burgoon 150/1
  • Talor Gooch 150/1
  • Lanto Griffin 150/1
  • Chez Reavie 150/1
  • Cameron Tringale 150/1
  • Sebastian Munoz 150/1

These first-round leader wagers will always carry minimal exposure but are a fun way to get a little action going at a hefty price early in the week. The goal is to find as much volatility as possible on these players and hope to get lucky with the putter in round one.

 

Top-20

Matthew NeSmith 8/1

Matthew NeSmith has quietly put together nine made cuts in his previous 10 events, finishing inside the top-20 in four of those appearances. Yes, this week's tournament has the big boys out in full effect, but you have to find it encouraging that three of the shorter venues on tour (Pebble Beach, Sea Island and the PGA West Stadium Course) were the locations of his top-20s.

Bernhard Langer 20/1

We went down this road last weekend in my premium article with Bernhard Langer as a top-20 wager, but the 62-year-old was unable to ever get much going by losing 2.2 shots with his putter. If we are looking for some positives, iron play was not the issue with Langer gaining 1.56 shots with his approach game over two days, and we should view that as a positive with Harbour Town being a better natural set up for him to plod his way around the track. We are going to need a little better putting if we are going to get this longshot wager across the finish line, but Bermuda has historically been Langer's best surface.

 

Last Recorded Results (Charles Schwab)

0-1-0 H2H (-0.75 Units)

Corey Conners Top-20 (6/1 odds) - Dead-heat winner for 2.5/1 odds.

For as poor as last weekend went across the board for us, Corey Conners was able to partially salvage the week with his share of 19th place in Texas. For those of you who aren't aware of how top-20 wagers work when they cross the dead-heat threshold, the best way to describe how to calculate your payout would be this:

Take your potential winnings + stake, divide that by how many players are tied for that spot and multiply that by how many places are available to be had. In this example, a $10 wager would payout $70 total with a non-split win ($60 in winnings + $10 stake). Four players tied for 19th place ($70 divided by 4 =$17.5) and we have two spots up for grabs at 19th and 20th place ($17.5 x 2 =$35.00).

It is unfortunate that we weren't able to grab the full 6/1 price with how the back-nine went for Conners, but it is always nice to secure some profit when we can.

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-5-1)

+3.99 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

14-10-0 (+5.66 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75

2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
 (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

PGA Betting Advice: Charles Schwab Challenge

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-39-7), netting over 46 units of profit and a 67% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 18 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and three so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider

This week, the article got off to a late start and missed my typical window of releasing it by Monday night. Unfortunately, that caused a handful of the head-to-head plays that I had on tap to move against our favor, and I am not one who is going to release old lines and receive credit for the victory after the fact.

If the value is gone, the value is gone, and I'm always going to be completely transparent about how large of an edge we should be expecting on each bet. These articles are published to find long-term value, and I don't see the point in releasing condensed cards with minimal edges.

Instead of going down that road, I'd prefer to turn this week's edition into a hodgepodge of sorts, touching on different wagers throughout the industry that might be going under-the-radar. If you have any questions about a play that may have caught your eye, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

 

Head-To-Head Selection

Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson +115

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

While this line has followed the trend of moving incorrectly against us so far this week, there is still a substantial enough edge to be had to make this worth a wager at even -135. If you have followed my cards over the years, you will realize that I don't typically lay this much juice on a head-to-play. I prefer to find underdog value when possible, and a head-to-head golf play that needs to yield a win rate of 57.4% to breakeven isn't generally the road I go down.

However, despite the somewhat substantial move up to this point of the week, I still believe we are nearly 30 points off from where the line should realistically be located. Part of the reason behind this has to do with Bubba Watson's inability to find success at Par-70 venues. When attaching a 70% weight to last year's statistics and 30% onto 2020, the American shows why that is the case by ranking outside the top-100 in the field in both par-three and par-four scoring.

His top-10 standing in par-five birdie or better percentage gets negated with only two longer holes to be had each round, and Watson's general lack of touch around the green is troubling for a golfer that ranks outside the top-100 in strokes gained approach.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I can't really point to anything other than failing to get my 'Vegas Report' article out in time. Numbers move quickly if you miss your window, and the actual premium selection that I did decide to go with yielded a larger edge to be had. I have no issues playing Russell Knox all the way up to -165, and I do believe that it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that we see him gravitate towards that territory before the week is over.

0.75 Units to Win 0.56

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

First Round Leader

Denny McCarthy 150/1

If you have checked out my spreadsheet, you will see that Denny McCarthy isn't exactly grading out as someone thriving in the model. Inadequate approach and driving numbers have raised some concerns about what we should expect from the 27-year-old this weekend in Texas, but first-round leader bets are typically about finding a statistic that you like and ignoring all else.

We see a golfer surprise the community on day one to ascend to the top of the leaderboard all the time before eventually faltering over the next three days. The frequency this happens should tell us that most golfers are overpriced in actual win equity but often undervalued in a one-round setting.

McCarthy is an intriguing golfer to take a second look at for a few reasons. Ranked number one in the field in putting, the American gets a chance to perform on his best putting surface of Bentgrass and also has shown the ability to perform in gusty conditions throughout his career. When you add to that his top-10 ranking in birdie or better percentage and strength of scrambling, McCarthy checks many of the boxes you are hoping to find in a one-day boom-or-bust choice. Remember, an 80 is technically as good as a 70 is for us, and I'd prefer to target the volatility when we need a low round.

 

Top-20

Corey Conners 6/1

Corey Conners is beginning to get a little popular for my liking, but I consider 6/1 to be an extremely generous price on the Canadian. Conners has played Colonial Country Club twice in his career, posting a 31st place result in 2019 and an eighth-place showing in 2018.

Yes, this year's test is much more difficult than the previous fields the 66th-ranked player in the world had to endure to provide those past displays, but Conners is always a decent putter away from being competitive. Russell Knox at 6/1 is also worth a second look after finishing eighth, 20th and 24th in his past three attempts here, but I give a slight edge when it comes to value to Conners for this spot.

 

Last Recorded Results (Arnold Palmer)

2-1-0 (+0.74 Units)

We lowered our exposure on all three plays last weekend but were able to escape out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 2-1 record. It will be impossible to know if we could have gotten the job done without a fortunate break on our Tony Finau over Jason Day matchup, which saw the Aussie withdraw during the second round, but a little luck has never hurt anyone.

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

14-9-0 (+6.41 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-4-1)

+5.09 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10


Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
 (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

PGA Betting Advice: Players Championship - Head-To-Head Selections

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-39-7), netting over 46 units of profit and a 67% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 18 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and three so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider

Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

*** Historically, the Florida swing has always been one of the most difficult stretches for me to handicap. Weather can change events on a dime, and I always prefer to lessen my exposure - particularly at an event such as the Players Championship that sometimes doesn't have much rhyme or reason behind outcomes.

 

Bryson DeChambeau -107 over Tommy Fleetwood -109

Reasons I Liked the Play: We missed the initial movement here that had Bryson DeChambeau at a plus-number against Tommy Fleetwood, but I still believe there is enough meat left on the bone at his new price of -107. I'm not typically one that makes too many of my weekly wagers near the top of the board, but Fleetwood has a few statistical flaws that are hard to overlook. According to my model, the Englishman ranks outside the top-100 in proximity from 125-175 yards and par-five birdie or better percentage. Those are both categories of concern that could prevent the 10th-ranked player in the world from creating scoring chances, and the last thing you need at a difficult venue such as TPC Sawgrass is to not take advantage of the easier holes at the facility. I assume we will continue to see this price move over the next few days and expect DeChambeau to eventually close between -115 to -120.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Fleetwood's success at the Players Championship can't be ignored. Two consecutive top-seven finishes help to highlight his strengths, and the 29-year-old is still one of the best ball strikers in the world - especially in windy conditions. I am not expecting a missed cut out of either man, but I do rate Fleetwood to have about a 10 percent greater chance of missing the weekend than DeChambeau. An abundance of wind is not expected in the forecast as of right now, but the ability for this tournament to turn quickly because of weather can't be understated. You aren't going to find a much lower play than this from me, but I only have DeChambeau at about a two percent edge in terms of implied win probability.

0.75 Units to Win 0.70

 

Last Week's Results

2-1-0 (+0.74 Units)

We lowered our exposure on all three plays last weekend but were able to escape out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 2-1 record. It will be impossible to know if we could have gotten the job done without a fortunate break on our Tony Finau over Jason Day matchup, which saw the Aussie withdraw during the second round, but a little luck has never hurt anyone.

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

14-9-0 (+6.41 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-4-1)

+5.09 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10


Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
 (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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PGA Betting Advice: Arnold Palmer Invitational - Head-To-Head Selections

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-39-7), netting over 46 units of profit and a 67% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 18 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and back-to-back wins in Patrick Reed (50/1) and Sungjae Im (35/1), making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider

Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

*** We will have three selections on tap for this week's Invitational tournament, but I'd recommend shading your exposure to the side of caution. None of the selections exceed a four percent implied probability, and I don't see a reason to attack this card in an aggressive manner.

 

Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick -115

Reasons I Liked the Play: Bubba Watson is the kind of golfer that tells you how much he likes a facility by his results. Six straight made cuts here at Bay Hill should be all you need to know, but it doesn't hurt that four of those finishes have resulted in top-24 showings. A second-place effort for Matthew Fitzpatrick here last season will allow us to gain extra value when we do decide to oppose the Englishman in the market, and this feels like a decent spot when you consider the fact that Fitzpatrick has sputtered to miss two cuts in his previous five years at the event.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: I really think the sportsbooks have done a nice job in how they have paired their matchups during the past three weeks. It has been difficult to find too many incongruities in pricing, and this head-to-head wager forces us to take on some risk on both sides of the aisle. Watson is never the easiest golfer to back when placed in a matchup situation, and Fitzpatrick does have three top-27 finishes here to go along with two missed cuts. I am willing to wager on Watson's longevity of results at Bay Hill over Fitzpatrick's current form that appears to be sliding in quality, but it would be naive to say we have a clear path to victory with only about a 2.5% edge in terms of win probability being offered.

0.75 Units to Win 0.71

 

Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day -113

Reasons I Liked the Play:  I can guarantee that this number is going to move towards Tony Finau before Thursday. Finau is often one of the most popular guys on tour for the public to wager on, and Jason Day's propensity to withdraw from events has turned him into a target weekly. None of those reasons are why I like the play, but I do believe we have a nice number grab spot in front of us. Day's inability to find the fairway off the tee could put him into trouble, and I don't think his success at Bay Hill will get a pass with his erratic nature as of late.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: For all the uncertainty that Jason Day does bring to the table, it is hard to ignore four consecutive top-23 results at the Arnold Palmer. That level of career excellence is the reason why we are getting Finau at the price we are currently, but it is always dangerous to oppose someone that has consistently found a way to produce quality finishes year-after-year.

0.75 Units to Win 0.73

 

Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed -118

Reasons I Liked the Play:  I am out on Patrick Reed this weekend. Yes, the ninth-ranked player in the world has found success with his irons during his past four starts, but for as much as I hate backing golfers after a win, I even more so despise going back down that road when the victory came from a hot putting performance. Putting can be hit-and-miss weekly, and his 11.8 strokes gained on an entirely different surface doesn't have me very eager to invest my money on him at a difficult venue. Reed only has one finish here inside the top 50 in his career, and I believe his victory in Mexico has placed him above his perceived range.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Both golfers are making their first start after their recent wins, and it is not as if Reed is grading out to have a ton of missed cut potential. In fairness, he does have more than any of his counterparts in this range, but the American is still a prohibitive favorite to make the weekend. None of the selections at the Arnold Palmer Invitational exceed over four percent of implied probability, but this does marginally eclipse our previous two choices recommended.

0.75 Units to Win 0.76

 

Last Week's Results

1-0-0 (+1.00 Units)

Another week without a massive separation in value between our premium and free head-to-head wagers has worked out favorably for this article. Gary Woodland (-110) over Justin Rose was able to experience smooth sailing after the Englishman failed to make the weekend. The result has now pushed our free plays to (+5.67) units on the year - nearly a half unit better than our premium article.

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

12-8-0 (+5.67 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-4-1)

+5.09 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10


Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
 (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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PGA Betting Advice: Honda Classic - Head-To-Head Selections

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-38-7), netting over 47 units of profit and a 68% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 17 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and a 50/1 winner with Patrick Reed last weekend, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

***Another small card this week. I'm not a fan of forcing plays and only had two total wagers grade out as having better than a three percent edge.

Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: Justin Rose carries more name recognition than current form. The Englishman has failed to post a finish better than 28th place during his three PGA Tour starts in 2020 and has featured a paltry 57.22% GIR percentage in that time frame. I believe this play currently carries a three percent edge and will most likely move in the favor of Woodland as the week progresses.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Despite not loving Justin Rose for the Honda Classic, the 39-year-old still grades out better than one might expect. If you have noticed in the past, I don't love taking on anyone at the top of the betting board because that is typically where casinos correctly gauge the strength of their numbers best. I consider this wager to be more than a number grab, but I'd be careful in investing once the juice reaches -120 or higher, which I believe it will when you look at the popularity for both golfers on DFS sites for the week.

1.10 Unit to win 1.00

 

Last Week's Results:

1-0-0 (+1.15 Units)

We didn't have a massive separation in value between our premium and free head-to-head wagers last weekend, and it worked out favorably as far as this article is concerned. Paul Casey (+115) over Louis Oosthuizen was never in much danger down the stretch, and I think it is important because it shows that the picks in this article aren't just throwaways that carry no financial benefit. Our record raises to 11-8 for (+4.67 units) of profit for this piece and has arguably held its own against our premium plays so far in 2020.

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results:

11-8-0 (+4.67 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-3-1)

+6.29 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10


Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
 (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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