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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): ZOZO Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In his 10th season on the PGA Tour, Jason Kokrak was finally able to hit the lottery out in Las Vegas for his first career title. The 35-year-old entered the week as one of just a few players that had played Shadow Creek in the past, and it showed to be an advantage that helped propel him over the finish line.

Kokrak provided a complete effort that saw him rank eighth in strokes gained tee to green, but it was his astronomical 10.293 shots gained putting over the field that helped him put up a tournament-leading 26 birdies. The victory qualifies Kokrak for the 2021 Masters, and we will also see him tee it up at Augusta in November after punching his ticket earlier in the year.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - ZOZO Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

ZOZO Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Sherwood Country Club

7,006 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

The Chevron World Challenge, now known as the Hero World Challenge, took place at Sherwood Country Club from 2000 to 2013. The event consists of only 18 players, so it is difficult to gauge too much from the past, but we have seen the average winning score hover right around 16-under par. With a field that will have nearly five times the number of participants this go-around, I'd anticipate we see that number boosted, but it is important to realize what you see is not exactly what you get in the yardage.

Playing as a par-72 that measures under 7,100 yards, added distance won't do as much as it might seem like on paper. Don't get me wrong, proper accuracy with distance is never a negative, but this is a ball-strikers venue that will reward second shots. It is one of the reasons why we have seen Tiger Woods win here five times in the past, and players will be tested with approach shots from various ranges.

Bunkers come into play both off the tee and around the greens, and we will get a unique situation with their being five par-five holes for the week. There are two additional par-fours that play under 400 yards, and we will see most of the scoring come during this seven-hole stretch.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Sherwood Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Xander Schauffele at 11/1 and Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas at 12/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 20%
  • Ball Striking 20%
  • Weighted Proximity 15%
  • Strokes Gained Approach 15%
  • Bent Putting + Scramble (Weighted) 10%
  • Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance (Weighted) 10%
  • Sand Save Percentage 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Xander Schauffele ($11,200)

It was somewhat jarring to see Xander Schauffele listed as the man to beat on DraftKings, but it isn't easy to make that strong of a case against it being factual. The 26-year-old has finished inside the top-five in his last three events and hasn't ended a tournament worse than 25th since the Travelers Championship in June. I believe we get a slight decline this week in ownership because of him being listed at the top of the board, and I don't mind buying back in at $11,200 when a lot of the industry is still frustrated with Xander being unable to close out events.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

We are going to have to use ownership, stats and other factors to decipher where we want to go for the week between our big four golfers. All have upside for victory and shouldn't be entirely discounted, but that doesn't provide the answer to what is proper. If you are playing a plethora of lineups, I don't mind spreading out my exposure a little more than usual, but DFS players that only play a few games will need to make some tough decisions. Personally, I prefer Schauffele over Rahm, but we are talking about fractions of a percent.

Justin Thomas ($10,600)

Early returns have Justin Thomas as the projected highest owned player for the ZOZO Championship, but can you really blame anyone? The 27-year-old gets a venue that will reward second shots and par-five scoring, and Thomas ranks first compared to the field in both categories. You might not be able to handpick a better venue than Sherwood Country Club for the 13-time PGA Tour winner, and I believe he should have been listed as the highest-priced player on the board.

Rory McIlroy ($10,400)

As much as I want to keep going down the Rory McIlroy road, it eventually becomes counterintuitive to keep gaining negative-EV performances out of him from a DFS perspective. McIlroy hasn't paid off his salary in quite some time, and while he is technically adequately priced for the week, I wouldn't play him as much more than a contrarian option in the $10,000 range. I'd like to see a top-five performance before buying back in right now.

Tyrrell Hatton ($10,000)

Tyrrell Hatton brings with him two consecutive top-three results after finishing last weekend in a share of third place, but there is no other way to say it; this increase is too much. Hatton should be in the low-$9,000 range, and I will let him beat me if it comes down to it.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Collin Morikawa ($9,800)

We saw some life from Collin Morikawa last weekend at Shadow Creek for the first time since his victory at the PGA Championship. Morikawa's 12th place result was aided by him gaining nearly six shots with his irons, and he receives the perfect venue to keep the momentum rolling again. Ownership always wants to get back onto the young American, so I doubt we get a version of him that is under 15%, but his upside is about as good as anyone in the field.

Webb Simpson ($9,700)

This general interpretation of Webb Simpson's skillset just isn't fair. The American has transformed himself into a statistical monster in 2020, but we continue to believe that it can't be possible for him to maintain this level with the way he is priced. There are only 78 players in this field, which will push Simpson into being very popular, but I have a hard time justifying Rory McIlroy or Tyrrell Hatton being above him in salary. Simpson should be considered value.

Viktor Hovland ($9,200)

If approach play is an expected benchmark needed to find success at the ZOZO Championship, Viktor Hovland might be the poster boy for the tournament. Hovland is ranked inside the top-10 in strokes gained approach compared to the field, and he is impressively grading out first in weighted proximity - a number you can find in my DFS model.

Daniel Berger ($8,900)

I keep mentioning this point about Daniel Berger, but it hasn't stopped the carpet from slowly being pulled from underneath him when it comes to his price tag. Right before and after the restart, Berger was playing like a freight train that looked like he might be the best golfer in the world, but we knew that wasn't exactly sustainable. As a result, his four more recent finishes between 17th to 34th place have been viewed as a disappointment, but it is fair to say that negative regression across the board has hit his game at once. If we want to move the American back into the $8,000 range because of a few subpar results by his standards, it is going to mean that I find myself significantly overweight to the field. Berger is perfectly suited to find success in California.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,400)

We have beaten the drum the last few weeks that Joaquin Niemann was underpriced, and we finally get a correction on the Chilean. Still, though, Niemann is someone I have properly priced in the high $8,000 section, and I believe there is still value to be had on the explosive youngster.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Abraham Ancer ($7,800)

After a run that looked like Abraham Ancer was closing in on his first PGA Tour title, things sputtered for the 21st-ranked player in the world for two months. Ancer could only provide one top-40 result in that time frame, but he seems to have regained some of his form with two top-30 finishes in Vegas - including a fourth place at the Shriners Open. The 29-year-old has the ball-striking acumen to keep his momentum rolling at Sherwood Country Club and should be considered a potential longshot to capture the title.

Brian Harman ($7,300)

Brian Harman hasn't finished outside the top-40 in his last seven starts but gets priced as the 33rd choice on DraftKings. The shorter venue should play into his quality short game, and I believe he is one of the better cash-game options on the board because of his recent success and price tag.

Cameron Smith ($7,200)

Similar to what I just said about Brian Harman, Cameron Smith has provided six straight top-40 finishes and enters the week priced at only $7,200. Even in a no-cut event, the safer routes will hold value in cash-game builds, and it isn't as if either player mentioned doesn't have the potential to crack the top-10.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,200)

The second-rated golfer in my model when it comes to inequality in price differential, Sebastian Munoz is quickly beginning to transform himself into a player to be reckoned with weekly. The Colombian has contributed five top-27 finishes over his last six events and continues to add to this region of lower-priced options with safety and upside.

Kevin Na ($6,900)

Nearly four strokes gained off the tee at the Shriners mixed with about 1.5 with his irons at the CJ Cup has Kevin Na trending in the right direction for the ZOZO Championship. Na is the fourth-ranked player in my model when looking at Bentgrass putting and scrambling, and his overall proximity totals should add another level of optimism. We have seen in the past that the 37-year-old is a threat to win when located at any price, and this week is no different.

Adam Hadwin ($6,700)

I understand the pricing for Adam Hadwin. His most significant advantage typically comes because of his ability to make the cut, and the lack of that in California takes away some of the reason to play him. However, there is a hidden upside available to the Canadian that some might be overlooking. Hadwin ranks inside the top-25 in proximity, sand save percentage and Bent putting, as well as being inside the top-10 over his last 24 rounds around the green. None of those statistics necessarily guarantee him to score, but I do think his overall nature of consistency makes him hard to ignore at $6,700.

Corey Conners ($6,600), Kevin Streelman ($6,600), Brendan Steele ($6,500)

There are a few options lower than this in price that will still be playable, but the bottom of the board starts to shrink up rather quickly. None of that means we can't take our chances with a Danny Lee, Mark Hubbard or Carlos Ortiz if we need to open up some salary elsewhere, but I do think we lose some of the win equity present once we bypass this area. Conners, Streelman and Steele all should be viewed as hit-and-miss options, but a ball-strikers course firmly places them in a territory of being under consideration.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): CJ Cup

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Martin Laird captured the first leg of the Vegas stretch on Sunday at TPC Summerlin, defying physics with a few of his shots during the final round. Not only did Laird find a way to make eagle from a buried lie near the lip of the bunker, but he proceeded to get up-and-down at the par-three 17th after looking like double-bogey was in play.

While we didn't pinpoint Laird in our article last week, I am incredibly pleased with what transpired. Justin Suh, who was our longshot value at TPC Summerlin, took home a top-10 result at just $6,200, and it helped matters out that one of our biggest fade recommendations (Collin Morikawa) missed the cut on Friday. We will look to keep the momentum going for the second consecutive week in my hometown, so let's roll the dice once again.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - CJ Cup

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

CJ Cup - PGA DFS Overview

Shadow Creek

7,527 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

We are going to have an uphill climb in what to expect for the CJ Cup this week. I wish I had more information about the venue since it is located in my city, but Shadow Creek is one of the most exclusive clubs in the country, and I can't say I have much first-hand knowledge when it comes to the ins-and-outs of the property.

Originally designed and opened by Tom Fazio in 1990, you may remember Tiger Woods/Phil Mickelson holding their original match at the venue in 2018. It is tough to decipher too much from a matchplay contest where neither man played their best golf, but we still can take a few things away from what we witnessed.

At 7,527 yards, we should expect distance to be an advantage, which is emphasized by three of the par-fives stretching over 570 yards. Long iron proximity becomes something that we can target in our research, and we might want to add some around the green numbers because of the length of second shots. On weeks where it isn't easy to know what to forecast numerically, I like to keep things steady with basic modeling that doesn't get overly complex. The cream typically rises to the top in these shallow field events, and I wouldn't expect much of that to change in Vegas.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Shadow Creek Tour Average
Driving Distance N/a 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm lead the way at 10/1 and are followed by Justin Thomas at 12/1 and Rory McIlroy/Xander Schauffele at 14/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Off The Tee 20%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
  • Driving Distance 15%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
  • Bent Putting + Scrambling 10%
  • Overall Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Jon Rahm ($11,300)

Six players located above $10,000 should give us some semblance of how tightly priced casinos and DFS sites view the top of the board to be for the CJ Cup. I can't deviate too much from the narrative since I have the big five participating in this event as the deserving five choices (in not necessarily the same order), but it does give us a more complex handicapping strategy to consider. Early returns are suggesting that Rahm and Rory McIlroy might be your two lowest owned players in this range, but I do believe it is important to not get caught up entirely in a strategy that tries to fade the chalk. With that being said, Rahm and McIlroy would have been my preferred options in a vacuum situation, which will only help push me into owning a slightly larger portion of the duo.

Dustin Johnson ($11,100)

In a week where we aren't sure how many players have prior first-hand experience at the property, Dustin Johnson enters the contest as the clubhouse leader with his course record of 66. That number only takes into account rounds since the Fazio restoration in 2008, but it might surprise some to see six-under par as the best round on record over the last 12 seasons. I don't want to go down this path of making Shadow Creek sound as if it is a test that is going to mimic what we just saw transpire at Winged Foot since the exclusivity of the property doesn't exactly allow tons of rounds from quality golfers, but I do believe the comparison to TPC Summerlin is not fair in the sense that this week could see a winning score that is closer to what we would expect at a venue that isn't yielding birdies in bunches. We know Johnson plays slightly more challenging courses well, and I would expect that we see him use his driving prowess to provide another quality effort.

*** DJ has withdrawn from the event because of COVID.

Justin Thomas ($10,800)

The cat has been out of the bag for years with Justin Thomas' results in no-cut tournaments, and that alone is going to inflate the American to perhaps being the most owned player on the slate. It seems likely that the winner will come from within this range, so I wouldn't necessarily overthink ownership totals to try and be contrarian. However, the decision will have to be yours. I don't have many negative things to say about this group, and you are going to have to figure out what bothers you while trying to separate the fivesome.

Rory McIlroy ($10,600)

We haven't seen the best out of Rory McIlroy since the restart, but I am finding it difficult to ignore his three consecutive top-12 results. I realize it is hard to write home about a 12th and a seventh during two tournaments that featured subsided fields, but that portrayal is exactly what makes me believe the Irishman is undervalued for the week. His eighth-place result at the U.S. Open came at a venue that didn't exactly highlight his preferred course difficulty, and I think we see him use his added length to compete for a title this weekend in Vegas.

Xander Schauffele ($10,300)

When the GIR percentage in a tournament goes down, we typically see Xander Schauffele take some steps above the rest of the field. Schauffele is arguably the best golfer in the world when it comes to hitting greens, and the added distance of second shots should only increase his advantage. The no-cut narrative will boost his ownership, but I can't find too many alarming factors to use against him in Vegas.

Matthew Wolff ($10,000)

BOOO! Matthew Wolff landing inside the $10,000 range means I have to talk about him. For those that follow this article closely, you will know that I don't discuss the American often. I essentially live by the mindset that he is playable when distance and scoring will be manageable and out of play when he can get himself into trouble off the tee. That didn't work perfectly when we saw Wolff come second at the U.S. Open a few weeks ago, but I hate to admit that the youngster does seem to be morphing into a much steadier player. The 21-year-old is still marginally overpriced because of his recent success, but I don't think it is as pronounced as it used to be in the past.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Daniel Berger ($9,300)

Daniel Berger has provided a handful of respectable finishes in a row, but it is a far cry from what the 13th-ranked player in the world was generating right before and after the restart. I do think it is fair to say that some regression to the mean has taken place for the American, but what should we consider a suitable price on Berger? For me, somewhere in the mid $9,000 range is the correct going rate, and I believe we are saving a few hundred dollars at $9,300.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200)

Hideki Matsuyama burned the industry a week ago at TPC Summerlin and should see some reduced ownership across the board at Shadow Creek. I'm less worried about his missed cut than usual since we are guaranteed four rounds out of the Japanese sensation, and Matsuyama tends to be a golfer that can exceed his finishing position on DFS sites because of his ball-striking acumen.

Viktor Hovland ($9,000)

Off the tee success, quality long irons and the ability to score on par-fives is a relatively simplistic overview of what Viktor Hovland does well, and it should help that Shadow Creek appears like it will demand similar traits to find success. The 23-year-old has struggled early in his career around the greens, but we have seen a slight improvement as of late in that area of his game.

Scottie Scheffler ($8,800)

Let's try to erase Scottie Scheffler's missed cut at the Shriners Open out of our memory bank. We can't take much away from a golfer firing a six-under par through two rounds and missing the cut, and it shouldn't be a deterrent while making your builds. Scheffler has shown some flashes of brilliance over his last two events and should be able to find a better rhythm in his third consecutive start since recovering from COVID.

Sungjae Im ($8,700)

It may come as a surprise to some, but Sungjae Im, not Bryson DeChambeau, led the Shriners Open in strokes gained off the tee at TPC Summerlin. Im added to his resume by ranking first in accuracy and greens in regulation, and any improvement with his putter might turn the South Korean into a threat to exceed the expectation level around him at Shadow Creek.

Paul Casey ($8,000)

A lack of perceived upside typically keeps Paul Casey's ownership down in more significant events, and it looks to be the case once again this weekend. The Englishman's $8,000 price tag is low enough so we don't have to worry about what his exact win equity is for the tournament, and it gives us a golfer that should have a decent shot to exceed his salary on DFS sites.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Justin Rose ($7,800)

Ranked fourth in my model compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage, Justin Rose's volatility should be viewed as a positive in this no-cut event. Rose has been known to come out of left field in the past, and the combination of long iron proximity and Bentgrass greens should only add to the allure around the Englishman.

Shane Lowry ($7,600)

After leading through two rounds during last week's BMW PGA Championship, Shane Lowry fired a final round 73 on Sunday to slip into 13th place. It was a disappointing culmination to the Irishman's event, but it should help keep him under the radar at Shadow Creek. Lowry is currently projected to be just two percent owned on DraftKings, and there will be contrarian value to be had for those that are willing to take a gamble.

Bubba Watson ($7,300)

I'm not sure if Bubba Watson's finishes are telling the complete story of how well he is striking the ball. Watson has gained a combined 22.2 strokes off the tee and with his irons over his last four events, and it has just been a poor putter that has held him back each weekend. Perhaps Watson could take a page out of Sergio's book and try putting with his eyes closed, but I wouldn't be shocked if we see it all come together for him soon.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,000)

I am pretty surprised to see Sebastian Munoz projected to carry under 10 percent ownership for the CJ Cup. It has been seven events since Munoz has missed a cut, and while that isn't something he will need to worry about this weekend in Las Vegas, his five top-27 finishes in his previous six events will go a long way. The 27-year-old is a threat to fall within that qualifying zone once again and should be considered a bargain at his going rate of $7,000.

Ryan Palmer ($6,700)

We have grown accustomed to volatility while rostering Ryan Palmer, but an event like the CJ Cup naturally lends itself to taking a more aggressive approach. Palmer is a quality par-five scorer who gains strokes tee-to-green, and it is going to be challenging to find more upside than he presents in this $6,000 range.

Dylan Frittelli ($6,600)

A ranking of 12th off the tee compared to the field over his previous 24 rounds is enough to give Dylan Frittelli a second look, and the picture becomes a little clearer when we peek at his ability to save par around the greens, as well as score on par-fives. The South African has generated six top-34 results in his last eight events, which means we should be viewing him as someone who is underpriced.

Cameron Champ ($6,400)

It is tough to like much about the form Cameron Champ is bringing to the event, but if firepower turns into the name of the game at Shadow Creek, there aren't many players in the world that possess more of it than the American. Champ is a GPP-only option that becomes less intriguing as the ownership rises, but I could be convinced to purchase a share or two at the right total.

Joohyung Kim ($6,400)

Joohyung Kim entered the beginning of 2019 ranked 2006th in the world but has turned in four worldwide victories and an additional 12 top-6 results in his last 31 events. All of this has moved him up to 117th in the 'Official World Golf Rankings,' and have I mentioned that he is only 18 years old? Kim doesn't have enough concrete statistical data in my model to provide confidence of what exactly he is as a player quite yet, but there are a ton of interesting categories that are showing him to be a potential phenom.

Harry Higgs ($6,300)

Ranked inside the top-30 of my model compared to the field in both driving distance and strokes gained off the tee, Harry Higgs is a golfer that can quickly move up this leaderboard if we get handed a course that is moderate in difficulty. Higgs has bounced back and forth between top-15 finishes and results outside the top-50 in his last four events, but his ability to gain strokes with his driver should come in handy.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:


Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Shriners Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Did anyone see the possibility for Sergio Garcia to regain some putting form at the Sanderson Farms? If you answered no, you probably weren't much different than the Spaniard, who was putting with his eyes closed throughout the event.

While it almost sounds like an outlandish story that can't be true, Garcia admitted after his round on Saturday that this is a strategy he has deployed numerous times throughout his career, including during his only major championship victory at Augusta. Sometimes seeing is believing, and who am I to question the now 11-time PGA Tour winner.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Shriners Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Shriners Open - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Summerlin

7,251 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

The PGA Tour brings a star-studded field to Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, which is a welcoming sight after a few substandard contests in a row. Measuring in as a 7,251 yard par-71, Bobby Weed masterminded the property on the rugged desert terrain, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. The course itself meanders through arroyos and canyons and features lush Bentgrass greens to go along with friendly Bermuda rough.

I've noted before that I don't play a ton of golf, but TPC Summerlin is a venue that I have teed it up at in the past. Only 15 minutes away from my house, the property is one of the most visually aesthetic in the city, but for what it brings in looks, you lose some of the difficulty along the way. One hundred and two bunkers were redone in 2018 to try and add a little more challenge, but it hasn't appeared to do much with the average winning score coming in at 22-under par during that time frame.

In my opinion, the only real defense for the course itself would be wind. Many people don't realize just how breezy Vegas can get throughout the year, and it does appear as if gusts are in the forecast. We will see if that holds accurate after an extremely subdued last few weeks, but it is worth noting that we might want to find golfers that play well in conditions that are a little tougher. The three par-fives and two short par-fours are the most accessible holes, and four of these are included during the final six-hole stretch. There is a challenging par-three 17th, but that will be the only real test for players coming home. Overall, golfers that can demonstrate ball-striking ability and strategy off the tee should exploit TPC Summerlin in an ideal situation, and it is not as if we should be anticipating anything that will be too grueling for the field.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat TPC Summerlin Tour Average
Driving Distance 295 281
Driving Accuracy 59% 62%
GIR Percentage 72% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 54% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.53 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 11/1, Patrick Cantlay at 16/1 and Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1. Kevin Na, your defending champion, enters the week at 70/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee 17.5%
  • Weighted Bent Putting + Scrambling 15%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
  • Weighted Total Driving 15%
  • Sand Save 12.5%
  • Proximity 125-175 Yards 12.5%
  • Proximity 200+ Yards 12.5%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,800)

There are some weeks where you can get contrarian to find an edge in DFS contests, but it won't be easy to think outside the box for the Shriners Open. TPC Summerlin has proven to be a venue that consistently has the same names rise to the top, and I believe it is essential to look at course history before handicapping the event. That is never a narrative that you hear me discuss for this article, as I am a firm believer that stats and current form tell more of the picture than past results at a venue, but the top of the DFS board reads like a "who's who" for past success. Bryson DeChambeau's three consecutive top-seven results at the property, including his victory in 2018, will go a long way, but it won't come cheaply at $11,800.

Webb Simpson ($11,000)

A victory here in 2013 to go along with four other top-20 results in his other six attempts shows that TPC Summerlin has quietly been one of Webb Simpson's go-to locations. We always discuss his dominance at places like the Wyndham Championship, but Vegas has quietly turned into a location where the American has popped, even when he hasn't ridden the best form into the week. I believe gamers looking for a rebate in price can safely go down to the seventh-ranked player in the world, but we shouldn't be getting much deviation in ownership between Simpson and DeChambeau. Everyone above $10,000 will be popular.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,400)

Patrick Cantlay will provide us our first real thinking spot at $10,400. The American grades out as my fifth-ranked golfer in terms of overall DFS modeling, but he does come in below the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama. The margins are so thin that I wouldn't necessarily blame anyone for pivoting to the 13th-ranked player in the world, but it is worth noting that Cantlay isn't bringing the same form to the week of previous seasons, which might prevent him from adding his fourth consecutive top-two finish at TPC Summerlin to his resume. We are nitpicking here, but I could argue that Cantlay might end up being my odd man out for no other reason than strength around him.

Tony Finau ($10,200)

Surprisingly, Tony Finau is my first "true value" of the week, as the big-hitter from Utah should be priced $200 more on DraftKings. Again, we are talking fractions of a percent when it comes to expected output, but I like to pinpoint where there are deviations from my model to actual pricing. With all that being said, I always find it challenging to pay up in salary for Finau, who has proven to have trouble getting himself across the finish line. I am done predicting where Finau's next victory will happen, but TPC Summerlin is a good location for his style, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finds himself having another chance on Sunday.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900)

I'll be interested to see where Hideki Matsuyama falls with his actual ownership. As of right now, the Japanese sensation is expected to generate 15% for DraftKings contests, but I could see that number falling as gamers shift to other options around him. Matsuyama's ball-striking nature should give him a chance to grow from his 16th-place result here last season, and his overall makeup places him as perhaps the safest option under $10,000. I realize my happy-go-lucky disposition for every golfer is wearing thin, but it should explain how correctly priced a board we have received. Sometimes it just isn't easy to find value.

Collin Morikawa ($9,800)

From a pure upside perspective, Collin Morikawa is an intriguing route for GPP contests. His two missed cuts in his previous three events will take him off my board when it comes to cash games, but the American provides us with the same caliber upside as the top of the board, just at a reduced salary price. Saving a few dollars is never a bad thing, and it might allow you more maneuverability in roster construction.

Jason Day ($9,500)

I'd be negligent if I didn't discuss Jason Day during an event in my hometown. My affinity for the Aussie has not been hidden, but I want to make it clear that he earns his spot in this write-up because of his skills. Day's ability to scramble, play out of the bunker and score on par-fives will come in handy at TPC Summerlin, and he provides DFS participants an extremely intriguing situation to grab a top-tiered player at less than five percent.

Sungjae Im ($9,300)

It was a swing and a miss for Sungjae Im last weekend in Mississippi after fluttering to a 28th-place result at the Sanderson Farms. Lofty ownership from the previous week that doesn't result in a top-10 finish will typically account for most DFS players going underweight in the following contest, and that narrative is shaping up early in the week. Im is only projected to be nine percent owned, but I'd be careful in avoiding the 22-year-old. Im has a 15th-place finish on his record here in 2018 and showed some life last Sunday with a final round 66.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,100)

I think it is important to check how someone missed a cut when doing research. After a 10th-place showing in 2018 at TPC Summerlin, Joaquin Niemann failed to make the weekend last year, missing the cut on the number. Two rounds of 69 shouldn't indicate any potential issues, and the Chilean has the upside to make birdies in bunches - something that can play to his advantage if he gets hot.

Brian Harman ($8,000)

Brian Harman's lack of robust finishes has kept him subdued in salary for the last few months, but it continues to provide us a situation to grab the lefty at a reduced price tag. Harman has provided back-to-back top-18 results at this week's venue, and his ability to scramble and get up-and-down out of bunkers should give him an edge over most of the field.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Doc Redman ($7,900)

I guess we have to discuss Doc Redman, who is projected to be the highest owned player this week under $8,000. I typically don't find as much value as most on the 22-year-old, but I agree that Redman is underrated for this week's contest. I do think we have potential pivot situations possible, but I won't be entirely avoiding the American as I sometimes do.

Cameron Smith ($7,800)

Speaking of potential pivots, Cameron Smith gives us someone that has shown to be capable of winning on tour but isn't a name that most seem to want to roster. The Aussie enters the week having produced four straight top-45 results, and he hasn't finished outside of 13th in his previous two showings in Vegas. Golfers like Smith are typically where I like to shift when ownership clouds a section, and his five percent projected total has me raising both eyebrows.

Harold Varner ($7,500)

It is hard to compile all of what Harold Varner III has done over the past few years and not feel as if he has underachieved. The American has only produced one top-10 showing on tour in 2020, and he hasn't exactly been a beacon for consistency with eight missed cuts in 17 tournaments. However, despite all the negative traits we can highlight of why he hasn't found more success, Varner seems to be trending towards a golfer ready to achieve more in his career. Three top-29 finishes over his last four tournaments is an encouraging sign, and his ability to gain strokes off the tee shouldn't be discounted.

Aaron Wise ($7,400)

There are a lot of players in the field with a Las Vegas backstory, but Aaron Wise takes it to another level. The 24-year-old experienced his first big break at the property in 2016 when he finished 10th, and his success at the venue can be easily explained. Wise uses TPC Summerlin as his home course and is coached by Jeff Smith - one of the head teaching pros at the property. It has been a rocky past few seasons for the Oregon product, but he might be trending in the right direction after finishing last week in 17th-place.

Lanto Griffin ($7,300)

There is a relatively solid built-in floor for Lanto Griffin, entering the week having made his last seven cuts. An 18th-place finish at TPC Summerlin in 2019 adds to the sanguinity, and it is not as if gamers are flocking to the 68th-ranked player in the world. Griffin should be someone to consider for cheap in cash-game contests, and his par-five scoring might help him to crack another top-25 result.

Luke List ($7,000)

Three straight top-20 results for Luke List in Vegas has turned the Vanderbilt product into a trendy sleeper this week. List has been shaky as of late, but his eighth-place result at the Corales Puntacana should add some optimism that the 141st-ranked player in the world can keep his streak alive in Sin City.

Adam Schenk ($6,900)

I realize we aren't talking about bank-breaking results, but DFS sites have refused to do much with Adam Schenk's price tag. The American has executed nine consecutive made cuts, but it has gone relatively unnoticed because of some subpar weekends. I will continue to play Schenk until he sees an increase that places him in the $7,000 range, and I believe he once again presents one of the better values on the board.

Chesson Hadley ($6,700)

It was a disappointing result for Chesson Hadley in Mississippi, but it might be a blessing in disguise if it allows us to grab last week's chalk at a quiet ownership total. Hadley has not finished worse than 18th in his last three trips to Vegas and has two top-seven results during that time frame.

Matt Jones ($6,600)

Ranked seventh in my model in par-five birdie or better percentage, Matt Jones also grades inside the top-25 in weighted Bentgrass putting + scrambling, sand save percentage and overall par-five scoring. Jones has produced two top-30 finishes at this week's venue during the last four years and also has made three cuts.

MJ Daffue ($6,500)

I wouldn't feel comfortable playing a ton of MJ Daffue, but there are a few things to like about his recent form. Daffue rides into the week off of a 12th-place showing at the Sanderson Farms, and he has birdied nearly 60% of his par-fives during the eight trackable rounds I have on him. A 72.22 GIR percentage has the South African as someone to keep an eye on going forward.

Beau Hossler ($6,500)

It is funny what two years can do to a young player. In 2018, I selected Beau Hossler to find his breakthrough victory in Vegas at odds of 55/1, and it feels as if everything has gone wrong for the Mission Viejo native since that moment. Hossler is a world-class putter when he gets it rolling, and we have gotten a small taste of that with him ranking third compared to the field over his last 100 rounds on Bentgrass greens.

Justin Suh ($6,200)

I think we sometimes don't realize how good a younger player is until their breakout performance happens on a bigger stage. After missing the first four cuts of 2020, Suh has delivered two top-25 finishes since the Barracuda, and none of it should come as that big of a surprise to the American after spending 26 weeks as the number one amateur in the world between 2018-2019.

 

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Sanderson Farms

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Hudson Swafford entered the week having produced just one top-10 result in his previous 27 events, but you would never have known it with how he was able to close the show out on Sunday. Swafford clutched up late, making a 10-foot birdie putt at the 17th hole and finished the festivities with an eight-foot par putt on 18 to help get him his second career PGA Tour victory.

From an overall statistical perspective, the American put together a complete outing, ranking inside the top-15 compared to the field in driving accuracy, driving distance, sand save percentage and putts per GIR. The win gets Swafford into the 2021 Masters, Players Championship and PGA Championship, as well as an exemption through the 2023 PGA season.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sanderson Farms

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Sanderson Farms - PGA DFS Overview

Country Club of Jackson

7,461  Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

The Country Club of Jackson is a rather unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by Donald Ross, the 18-hole layout used for the event was redesigned by John Fought and Mike Gogel in 2008 but still keeps many of the Ross principles that you would expect to see. Players will be required to work the ball both ways with doglegs going left and right, and the positioning and undulation of the greens will force golfers to hit shots to the correct side of the fairway.

Unfortunately, that is about where our help stops from trying to handicap this statistically. Players only hit about 54% of fairways, but the lack of rough shouldn't present issues for those that are unable to locate the short grass off the tee. All of that makes me believe a bomb-and-gouge mentality might be the way to go with Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ being the previous two winners, but a hot putter will be the key to success.

Typically, events like this are not my favorite when we have to rely on anything involving the flat stick, but I do believe I can pinpoint why putting is vital for the event. Bermuda greens feature less grain in the fall than the rest of the year, allowing strong putters to take advantage of a truer rolling surface. The issue with that narrative is that even though Munoz and Champ both dominated on the greens during their victories, neither should be considered an above-average putter. It places us right back into this narrative that we will need players who can get hot, and sometimes that can feel like throwing darts.

*** I have decided to weigh a combination of total driving and not just distance. I believe the Bermuda rough will have more impact than initially thought because of the fluffier lies impeding the amount of backspin you can get on the ball. I left in the original stance because I felt it was important to show changing your mind during the week is an entirely acceptable route to take. However, I will still be leaning more towards length over accuracy when weighing out the numbers. 

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat CC Of Jackson Tour Average
Driving Distance 281 282
Driving Accuracy 54% 62%
GIR Percentage 69% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 61% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.55 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Scottie Scheffler leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Sungjae Im at 14, Will Zalatoris at 18 and Sebastian Munoz and Sam Burns at 25/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Total Driving 20% (70% Distance - 30% Accuracy)
  • Bermuda Putting Last 100 17.5%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
  • Overall Birdie or Better 15%
  • Proximity 125-175 15%
  • Proximity 200+ 15%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

Scottie Scheffler ($11,400)

We get Scottie Scheffler back into the mix after he was forced to miss a few weeks after contracting COVID, but none of that seems to have derailed his likely win equity, according to DFS/betting sites. Scheffler enters the event as the 10/1 favorite to capture the title, and his $11,400 price tag on DraftKings paints a similar story when it comes to his chances to find success. It is challenging to argue against the 24-year-old from a statistical perspective, but it usually isn't my style to pay to the top of the betting board for a player that is still looking for his first PGA Tour title. However, all of that places us in a weird situation because of my disdain for most of the players in the $9,000 range, and it might equate to me owning more Scheffler than I originally anticipated.

Sungjae Im ($10,500)

Back to Bermuda and a venue that might emphasize Sungjae Im's birdie-making prowess, sign me up. While I acknowledge Scheffler is a better cash-game/head-to-head play because of his statistical consistency, Im becomes intriguing for the exact opposite reason in GPP tournaments. The South Korean has done most of his damage on Bermuda greens in the past, and we are all aware of the kind of fire he can catch when he is in the zone. Like Scheffler, I will not find myself overweight on many $9,000 options, meaning there will be room up top.

Will Zalatoris ($10,200)

Will Zalatoris bailed backers out at the Corales Puntacana with a final round 65, and it appears to be enough to generate support once again at the Sanderson Farms. Honestly, I don't have a strong take one way or the other on the American at his current price tag. It is in my nature to believe this is too much too quickly, but I am not going to beat the drum for why Zalatoris is an overvalued commodity. The 24-year-old has shown to be an outstanding golfer early in his career, and it is up to you to decide how to evaluate the information we have at our disposal. I will find myself relatively underweight compared to the field, but it doesn't mean I am correct with my stance.

Byeong Hun An ($10,000)

I'll have exposure to the first three golfers, but I can't say the same about Byeong Hun An. An's price tag of $10,000 is being directly influenced by his third-place showing at the venue last season, and I am never one to place much emphasis on course history - especially when there is only one tournament being used for our sample size. The South Korean's putting woes could get exposed on a truer rolling Bermuda surface, which in turn could dampen his birdie-making upside. An has only made three of his previous six cuts, and his three showings during that time frame that resulted in outcomes inside the top-22 still never cracked better than 12th place. Maybe he makes the cut; perhaps he even breaks the top-25 again. But I can't get myself to pay a top-four salary on a golfer who isn't ranked inside my top-10.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Sebastian Munoz ($9,900)

Sebastian Munoz enters the week at $9,900, and there is a lot to like about our defending champion from a statistical makeup once again. The Colombian grades inside the top-50 in every statistical metric I will be using to handicap the event this week, and it doesn't hurt matters that he has made his previous four cuts. Munoz's overall safety level places him as a player that can be considered in all game types.

Brian Harman ($9,400)

Did anyone else have fun going all-in with Brian Harman at the U.S. Open? In retrospect, one could argue that Winged Foot was slightly too long and hindered his performance down to a 38th place showing, but if we liked him there, we should still want him at the Country Club of Jackson. I question if Harman has enough firepower to take this event down, but his ability to scrap doesn't have me as worried about a missed cut as I am about other golfers in this range. In a tournament where there are a lot of unknowns, a top-25 outcome isn't the end of the world, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see him crack the top-10.

Patrick Rodgers ($8,200)

Patrick Rodgers sputtered after getting himself in contention at the Corales Puntacana, but an 11th place showing continued his quality run of seven straight made cuts. Look for his par-five scoring ability and Bermuda putting skills to keep the train rolling at the Sanderson Farms, and it feels like we have another decent spot to take advantage of a price tag that is just a little too small.

Cameron Davis ($8,100)

It doesn't surprise me that Cameron Davis is projected to be one of the slate's highest owned players. Ranked top-12 compared to the field in par-five birdie or better and overall birdie or better percentage, the Aussie has the firepower to attack this week's venue with his length. If you are looking for any downside, Davis ranks 123rd in the field for Bermuda putting, which should be viewed as a pretty substantial deterrent.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Charley Hoffman ($7,900)

I mentioned last weekend that Charley Hoffman had made a turn with his game by providing four top-25 finishes in his previous 10 tournaments, and you can add another tally to that total after the UNLV product posted a share of 14th place at the Corales Puntacana. We always give props to Hoffman for his ability to catch fire on Thursday's at major championships, and a venue like this provides him with an opportunity to do that for four days potentially.

Charl Schwartzel ($7,800)

I don't want to get too caught up on my small sample size of statistics on Charl Schwartzel because my database doesn't include any of his European form, but his showing at the Safeway Open was enough to have him crack my top-five for the week. Schwartzel is volatile, but his upside in GPPs does have him as someone worth considering at about a five percent ownership projection.

Chesson Hadley ($7,800)

Chesson Hadley's two missed cuts at the property might lessen his projected ownership total on DraftKings, but it is important to note that he also has a second-place result squeezed in between those two products. Hadley's four straight made cuts entering the week does have me more confident than I typically would be about where his game is at heading into the tournament, and he ranks ninth in overall birdie or better percentage.

Hudson Swafford ($7,300)

I don't consider Hudson Swafford's victory last weekend to be a fluke, as I did recommend him as a top-20 wager in my Vegas Report. DraftKings doesn't seem to agree by placing him down at just $7,300 for his follow-up contest, but I won't complain in taking a price tag that feels extremely reduced. There is no reason for Swafford to be under $8,000 in salary.

Kristoffer Ventura ($7,200)

I understand that we have a moderately stronger field from what we were given at Corales Golf Club last weekend, but some of the price reductions are overwhelming on individual golfers. To me, this contest still is reduced from an overall skill standpoint, and I can't seem to understand what has caused Kristoffer Ventura to drop from $9,200 to his current going rate of $7,200. His 52nd-place showing last weekend was disappointing, no doubt, but consider this an ideal spot to jump back into the fray on the Oklahoma State product.

J.B Holmes ($7,000)

High risk, high reward; that is the best way to describe J.B. Holmes, who is slowly getting back into the groove of things after dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of action from July to the Safeway Open. Holmes put together a 46th-place result in Napa Valley and will look to build off that result at the Sanderson Farms. Consider his GPP upside to be intriguing.

Adam Schenk ($6,700)

What did Adam Schenk do to go from $8,500 last weekend to his current price of $6,700? I understand Schenk has lacked some upside as of late, but eight straight made cuts is not the easiest thing to come by in the sub-$7,000 range. His seventh-place showing here in 2018 to go along with his two top-43 appearances in 2019 and 2017 should be all that you need to know that the American is one of the most mispriced options on the board.

Vincent Whaley ($6,600)

Three top-37 results for Vincent Whaley has the 25-year-old PGA Tour rookie trending in the right direction, and he will look to cement his status with another robust effort this weekend. Whaley has been on record that his college teammate at Georgia Tech (Ollie Schniederjans) was the reason behind his improvement, and I am never going to be one that goes against what the incomparable Ollie says or does.

Sahith Theegala ($6,600)

After having his college experience cut short because of COVID-19, Sahith Theegala has started to gain momentum on the PGA Tour with two consecutive top-41 results - including a 14th place showing at the Safeway Open. Earlier in the year, Theegala won the Haskins, Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus awards while in college at Pepperdine, becoming just the fifth person ever to win all three in the same year.

Jamie Lovemark ($6,100)

After missing four PGA Tour cuts in a row, Jamie Lovemark has put together back-to-back weekends at the Safeway Open and Corales Puntacana. Both finishes were marred by Saturday or Sunday implosions, but Lovemark is beginning to regain some of the same form that saw him crack the top-100 players in 2018.

Hunter Mahan ($6,000)

It has been a long road back for Hunter Mahan, who continues to struggle with six missed cuts in seven events during 2020. None of those issues have technically gone away, but Mahan showed a little life during his missed cut at the Safeway Open, posting impressive numbers across the board. The six-time PGA Tour winner might be able to carry some of that momentum into a venue where he has not missed a cut since 2017, and his Bermuda putting skills should add another wrinkle of hope.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Corales Puntacana

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It was a world-class performance we saw from Bryson DeChambeau at the U.S. Open, as the 27-year-old captured his first major championship by six shots over Matthew Wolff. DeChambeau often gets criticized for his unique way of thinking about golf, but performances like this emphasize why he might be the most transcendent player the game has seen in years.

The American was able to turn his body into a weapon, and it has allowed him to outmuscle and outsmart opponents with his unusual gameplans that often border between sanity and madness. While most other players entered Winged Foot with a strategy of connecting on fairways and playing it safe, DeChambeau went for a controlled aggression route, using his driver every chance possible to advance his ball down the course. Misses did come into play with only 23 connected fairways over four days, but the now seven-time PGA Tour winner made sure to miss in the right locations to give himself a chance, proving why he is a step above the rest.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Corales Puntacana

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Corales Puntacana - PGA DFS Overview

Corales Golf Club

7,600  Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda/Paspalum

A Tom Fazio design, the course opened in 2010 and has only been on the PGA Tour rotation since 2018. The Web.com used the venue as a trial run in 2016-2017, but I am only going to use the two years of data that we have on the big-stage while crafting my breakdown for the week.

At first glance, there are a few things that caught my eye for how it appears the property will play. All four par-threes rank inside the nine hardest holes - each coming in at over 200 yards - and your four easiest locations will come at the par-fives, with two featuring over a 50 percent birdie or better rate. There are five par-fours that can play between 450-500 yards on a given day, and it does seem as if a mixture of long-iron and mid-iron proximity will be important.

There aren't any massive outliers that pop off the page for me when breaking down what exactly will be needed to fund success, but an overall level of ball striking does seem like a good place to start at a venue that is relatively straightforward. The 7,600-yard layout bakes most of its length between the par-three and fives, and we do have five par-fours under 440 yards. All of that makes finding an ideal location to target proximity challenging, but I will attempt to weigh a plethora of distances into my research. Length off the tee will most likely help get you to the greens on the longer holes, but I am not so sure it has as much bearing on scoring as the yardage would make it appear.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Corales Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy 71% 62%
GIR Percentage 64% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 62% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.54 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Will Zalatoris leads the way at 12/1 and is followed by Mackenzie Hughes 14/1, Corey Conners 16/1 and Sam Burns 20/1. Your defending champion, Graeme McDowell comes into the week at 45/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 25%
  • Par-Four Average 400-500 Yards 15%
  • Ball-Striking 15%
  • Proximity 200+ 12.5%
  • Par-Three Average 12.5%
  • Proximity 100-175 Yards 10%
  • Bermuda/Paspalum Putting 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

Will Zalatoris ($10,900)

I typically like tournaments that are either extraordinarily robust or watered-down with perceived talent, as I believe we can extract our most considerable edges in those settings. While we get that exact situation for this week's Corales event, it doesn't provide us with a great answer on what to do with Will Zalatoris and his event-leading $10,900 price tag on DraftKings. For me, the going rate is too much to feel comfortable spending top-tiered salary on the 24-year-old, but it doesn't mean we don't see Zalatoris provide a respectable showing.

Corey Conners ($10,600)

I'm emphasizing ball-striking this week, which immediately adds Corey Conners to the shortlist of options to consider. The Canadian is the number one player in the field in that category, and he tends to excel when he gets a shorter iron in his hands. All of that is well and good, but Conners' inability to putt - especially on Bermuda grass - is something that could create a problem situation for him over the four days. I typically don't mind taking a chance on the 28-year-old when the price is right, but you don't have to look any further than his missed cut last season and top-15 in 2018 to show that his level of volatility can be tough to swallow at over $10,000. I'm not going to have much exposure to Conners, but I would advise keeping it for GPP-only if you do decide to go down that rabbit hole.

Mackenzie Hughes ($10,300)

Receiving a massive boost in my model for course history and current form, Mackenzie Hughes will provide gamers with a bit of an enigma situation at a price tag we aren't accustomed to seeing him at for events. I don't have a massive issue with anyone near the top of the board from a stylistic perspective, but slight inconsistencies become magnified when we have to pay top dollar for players that have shown not to be world-class talents historically. I am okay with letting Will Zalatoris, Corey Conners or Mackenzie Hughes beat me if they can get the job done, but once again, none are fades for any other reason than price.

Sam Burns ($10,100)

Ownership is going to be the massive decider for me on Sam Burns. The 24-year-old is the first golfer over $10,000 that has piqued my curiosity, but it appears as if I am not the only person in this industry that has come to that conclusion. At this moment, Burns is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, but it is easy to understand why with all the checkmarks he provides across the board. I don't mind taking stances in all contests when I think there is positive equity to be had on the play, and I most likely will find myself on par (or above) with my own personal ownership percentages. It remains to be seen if I will take the brunt of my exposure and use it on him as the staple of my cash-game builds, but I can justify and understand building some GPP lineups around him.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Denny McCarthy ($9,600)

I don't find myself backing Denny McCarthy nearly ever, but the slow, grainy surface at Corales Golf Club will amplify his edge in putting over the field. I am not a believer in placing much emphasis on anything with the flat stick since it is one of the most challenging statistics to quantify mathematically, but McCarthy fits the venue for more reasons than making putts. The American ranks inside the top-30 when it comes to par-three average, par-four scoring between 400-500 yards and par-five birdie or better percentage - placing him as one of only two players in the field (Will Gordon) to fall underneath that criteria.

Kristoffer Ventura ($9,200)

Kristoffer Ventura is the forgotten about golfer from the National Championship Oklahoma State squad. All the accolades (and rightfully so) have been bestowed upon Matthew Wolff and Viktor Hovland, but Ventura is an exceptional talent of his own that is beginning to make strides with his game. Three straight finishes inside the top-37 has me believing that Ventura's inaugural victory on the PGA Tour might be just around the corner, and it wouldn't shock me if we see him accomplish that task in the Dominican Republic.

Charley Hoffman ($8,900)

I still believe there is this stigma attached to Charley Hoffman that often undermines his actual golfing ability. The ongoing joke is that Hoffman is a force that can't be stopped during the first round of a major championship, making him essentially Tiger Woods of Thursday golf. Look, I'm never going to argue with one of my UNLV alumni getting compared to the greatest golfer of all time - and frankly, we were Oklahoma State before they thought it was cool to become good at golf. But the bigger picture I am trying to make here is that Hoffman was an exceptional player in his prime that won four titles on tour. I don't believe we ever see him get back to that level of production at the age of 43, but the 151st-ranked player in the world has turned back the clocks slightly by posting four top-25 appearances on tour over his previous 10 events.

Luke List ($8,700)

I am done trying to predict Luke List's win equity because it is clearly higher than I believe it to be. The 35-year-old tends to be one of the most significant outliers for me weekly when it comes to being overpriced, but it has amounted to zero wins so far in his PGA Tour career. Like Corey Conners, there will be some issues on the putting surface, but I feel better about ignoring List's deficiencies at nearly $2,000 less.

Patrick Rodgers ($8,000)

I am going to find myself substantially overweight compared to the field on Patrick Rodgers. The American has produced six straight made cuts, with three finishes inside the top-35, but a lot of the public support will be missing because of three consecutive sub-par results that resulted in placements outside of the top-45. Maybe I should be more concerned than I am with his perceived negative trajectory, but I never found any of those tests to warrant that much positive outlook when I handicapped them originally. Rodgers has the perfect bounceback spot that will accentuate his strengths at Corales Puntacana.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,700)

Jhonattan Vegas sputtered at the Safeway Open, finishing with a final round 73 to fall down the leaderboard on Sunday. It has been a questionable restart for the Venuzealun with five straight results outside the top-50, but I have no issues going back down the well again if we think we can grab Vegas at around 10 percent ownership. I consider this to be a strictly GPP-only play, but there is upside to be captured at $7,700.

Keith Mitchell ($7,600)

We have had some conflicting reports on whether Corales Puntacana should be viewed as having bermuda or paspalum greens, but I don't see a massive difference either way because of their similar "grainy" textures. In reality, I hope everyone calls them paspalum because the cat is already out of the bag when it comes to Mitchell's improvements as a putter on slower bermuda surfaces.

Will Gordon ($7,600)

I just can't seem to avoid this Will Gordon trap during inferior quality events. I realize my sample size of data that I have on the American is small, but Gordon grades out as an elite player almost across the board. His nearly 20% projected ownership total might have me consider using him as nothing more than an outright wager, but I'd be lying if I didn't say that there is upside for a big result.

Seamus Power ($7,500)

Seamus Power got himself stuck into the $6,000 range for so long that DraftKings has had issues moving his salary much further than where we are getting it this weekend. The Irishman is far from a guarantee to post a made cut, but three top-30 finishes over his previous six tournaments should be yielding higher than a four percent ownership rate. At this moment, it is not.

Doug Ghim ($7,300)

Three out of four finishes in the top-50 for Doug Ghim since the 3M Open should be viewed as encouraging for his prospects this weekend, and his overall level of ball striking places him in the top-10 compared to the field. At under seven percent ownership, Ghim provides a potential pivot away from Chris Kirk and Chris Baker.

Akshay Bhatia ($6,900)

Akshay Bhatia became the youngest player (18) to finish in the top 10 of a stroke-play event on the PGA Tour during the Safeway Open since Justin Rose finished 4th in the 1998 Open Championship. Bhatia is beginning to look like one of golf's next up-and-coming stars, and he will get another opportunity to keep the momentum rolling this week.

Michael Gligic ($6,500)

It has been a strong run for Michael Gligic over the past five events, making the cut in each outing. The Canadian enters the week after posting a strong 14th place showing at the Safeway Open, and he should be able to use his par-five scoring ability to find another weekend at his reduced price tag.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): U.S. Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Before we get started into the second major of 2020, I just wanted to give a massive shoutout to Joe Nicely for helping with this article last week. He did a magnificent job taking over the reins and added great insight that included recommendations of Sam Burns, Brendan Steele and Cameron Davis. Be sure to give him a follow on Twitter if you aren't doing so already, as he delivers superb weekly content that can help you win big when playing DFS golf.

With all that being said, I am happy to be back for this week's U.S. Open. Major championship events are typically my favorite tournaments to tackle from any sort of a gambling perspective, and this week will be no different at a test that could provide a winning score over-par. I feel as if that tough tests usually will supply us our best opportunity to model and break down what we expect to transpire, so without further ado, let's get right into the meat of what everyone came here to see!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - U.S. Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

U.S. Open - PGA DFS Overview

Winged Foot

7,477  Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua

A typical U.S. Open is known for carnage, and we should have just that this weekend at Winged Foot. From a DFS/betting perspective, it provides an extra level of volatility, as it is not going to be easy to make up lost ground. That will get even further enhanced with only the top-6o and ties making the cut, but it doesn't mean we can't figure out an avenue to locate an advantage.

The rough is going to be extremely penial, making total driving a necessity to find success. Greens will feature undulated slopes that will need to be missed in the right locations, and certain spots will not allow a real opportunity to get up-and-down for par. That means we should focus on around the green and three-putt avoidance when modeling the event.

While it is easier said than done, the tournament will have to be played out of the fairway for anyone that wants a true shot at the title. Most tend to think that means finding the most accurate players on tour, but I believe that is the wrong way to view this scenario. If a player is shorter off the tee but generally gains strokes in that facet of their game, they aren't the golfer I am talking about, but the biggest bomber that is the most accurate for the week will have an advantage over most of the field. That isn't necessarily an easy thing to target, but it is worth keeping in mind when making your wagers/lineups.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Winged Foot Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy 50% 62%
GIR Percentage 52% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 40% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 1.00 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 10/1, Rory McIlroy at 12/1, Justin Thomas at 14/1 and Xander Schauffele at 16/1. Your defending champion, Gary Woodland, enters the week at 66/1

 

Key Stats

  • Total Driving 15%
  • OTT + App 15%
  • Scramble 15%
  • Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
  • Three-Putt Percentage 12.%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
  • Sand Save Percentage 10%
  • Driving Distance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

Flying into the week playing perhaps the best golf of his career, Dustin Johnson leads the way at $11,500 on DraftKings. The big-hitting American will need every bit of that form to conquer a challenging Winged Foot test, but how should we feel about his price tag on DFS sites? With the amount of volatility present at the venue, I am once again going to make Johnson beat me in all betting markets. Taking a contrarian route doesn't mean you are always right, but it does suggest that you will need to have a stomach capable of being in uncomfortable situations. If DJ beats me, all I can do is tip my cap to him and move on.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

Will the U.S. Open be the location for Jon Rahm's first major championship? It is possible with the way the Spaniard can dominate on tough courses. One could argue that Rahm has won at the two most challenging tests so far in 2020 (Memorial & BMW Championship), and there is a chance he could thrive once again if he keeps his head on straight. I am much more likely to spend up and grab Rahm if I am going to go to the $11,000 or above range, but avoiding this domain altogether might help you to bypass nearly 30% of the field that will begin their lineups with the two men up top. That thought process is geared towards extremely large-field GPP contests, and it is not to say that Rahm isn't in play in those settings as well. I will be playing my fair share of him, and he is fairly priced at $11,000.

Justin Thomas ($10,700), Rory McIlroy (10,500)

Both Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy have had the propensity to do most of their damage at easier setups than we will get this weekend in New York. Thomas has only won three of his 13 titles on the PGA Tour in single-digits (PGA Championship -8, CJ Cup -9 and the Honda Classic -8, while McIlroy has failed to find the winner's circle at a total worse than 12-under par during any of his 28 worldwide victories. Those numbers are slightly skewed when you take into account that we don't get many events that fall into that territory, but it does indicate both players would prefer something a little easier than Winged Foot is looking like it will be this week. If I were to play one of the two, Thomas seems like a much better target with his skill set, but the complaining and continual loss of focus will need to stop for him to get over the hump.

Xander Schauffele ($10,100)

From an overall ranking standpoint, Xander Schauffele is my number one golfer at the U.S. Open. The American ranks inside the top-seven for me when it comes to stats, form and event history, and he does appear to be one of the safest options you can select. We can't bypass the entire board while worrying about ownership, but an extremely outside the box route for a few of your builds would be to start with your first golfer under $10,000. That will avoid some of the clutter up top and still allow you to be unique. However, if you are playing a plethora of lineups, you are most likely going to want to be around market value on the seventh-ranked player in the world because there is no reason to take a stance against him and let him decide your week.

Collin Morikawa ($10,000)

If I am being honest, I am not sure how much I love this layout for Collin Morikawa. The winner of the PGA Championship will go off as one of the highest owned players, but his shaky around the green game, poor three-putt avoidance numbers and overall inconsistent nature scrambling have him as someone that could find trouble if his irons aren't dialed in. Morikawa's strength in his approach game can solve many of his issues, but I am not sure this is the venue where he wants to rely on that one facet of his game.

 

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Bryon DeChambeau ($9,900)

During my course breakdown, I discussed how Winged Foot could make it challenging for golfers that place themselves behind the eight-ball early. For a player like Bryson DeChambeau, that sentiment rings louder than most, as the 'Mad Scientist' is capable of any concoction or experiment for what is proper while playing a hole. Over the course of four days, one of those tests is bound to go wrong, making DeChambeau a prime blow-up candidate at any moment. I'm not projecting him to miss the cut and wouldn't be shocked to see him provide a top-25 finish, but if victory probably isn't in the likely range of outcomes, $9,900 is still a costly price tag to pay. You won't need much ownership to outweigh his current four percent projected total, so I don't mind taking a shot here and there, but there is risk involved.

Webb Simpson ($9,700)

The question for Webb Simpson will come down to the following: How much will his lack of distance and inferior off the tee numbers hurt his chances at an extended, arduous test. His erratic performance at East Lake has drawn some question marks for me in what to expect, but my model still likes his chances to find success. At a 16 percent projected ownership total, I will most likely go with my gut over my spreadsheet and be underweight to the field on him, but I can understand why someone would see this as an opportunity to grab value at a respectable number.

Daniel Berger ($9,200)

When we look at difficult U.S. Open tests, there haven't been many over the last few years that have been more challenging than Shinnecock Hills in 2018. Some can place the difficulty onto Saturday's baked out greens that saw the leaders falter down the stretch, but Daniel Berger was one of the names that found himself at the top of the leaderboard going into the final round after the weekend implosion happened for many in the field. Berger wasn't able to turn that chance into anything better than a sixth-place result, but there is no doubt that the 27-year-old has uncracked his potential so far in 2020, posting 10 top-25s over his previous 11 tournaments. Berger is closing in on his first major, and I wouldn't put it past him grabbing it in New York.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000)

Anyone who reads this article weekly will know that I have a slight obsession with Hideki Matsuyama's game. The Japanese sensation might be the best "pure" ball-striker on tour, but his lack of putting seems to undo his chances of finding more success than he does. Matsuyama's issue isn't that he is a poor putter; many guys have that complication and are able to see bursts of success randomly. Instead, his problem comes down to an overall inability to ever get anything going on the greens. He doesn't just lose; he loses almost every single time. While that is a hitch that needs to be changed, the 28-year-old has managed to gain a combined four shots with his putter over his last four tournaments, which might be a good sign that things are turning around.

Adam Scott ($8,700)

The betting market seems to be more in tune with where Adam Scott should be priced for the U.S. Open than DraftKings. Scott is the 15th priced player on DraftKings but comes in as the 11th golfer in the outright market. The eleventh position is where I have Scott being proper in all avenues, making him a small value at $8,700 and someone I am willing to play across the board.

Patrick Reed ($8,500), Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100)

Substantial projected ownership totals for Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton won't take away from the duo being marginally underpriced for the week at their current going rate. As was the case with Adam Scott, I believe the betting markets are more lined up with what is proper, and it never hurts to seize some value when possible. Reed and Hatton have an outside shot to capture the title in New York but primarily should be viewed as cash-game staples.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Paul Casey ($7,900)

The curious case of Paul Casey will be a conundrum that makes it tough to decide how to proceed this week. Casey's lack of win equity is no longer just a statement; it is a fact. However, his $7,900 price tag doesn't require a victory to pay off his value. I am not a massive fan of acquiring low win equity players at a high ownership total in GPP contests, but I can understand Casey's intrigue when that is already being baked into his number.

Matt Kuchar ($7,200)

Speaking of low win equity golfers, Matt Kuchar continues to see his price tag shrink - coming into this week at just $7,200. The American has provided three top-16 results over his last five U.S. Open events, and the overall plodding nature of Winged Foot should play into his style.

Alex Noren ($7,100)

Alex Noren's four missed cuts in five years at the U.S. Open will keep his ownership totals subsided on all DFS sites, but it is his 25th place result at Shinnecock Hills that I find to be the most intriguing. Noren is a better player when the scores ramp up in difficulty, and I believe the perceived nature of this week's venue not fitting into his style might allow us to grab the Swede at what should be considered value.

Chez Reavie ($6,900)

I have Chez Reavie's expected cost being off by nearly $700 from where it should be for the second major of the year. Unfortunately, most golf pundits have also come up with the same sentiment, causing his projected ownership to hover around 15% for the week. There are some potential pivot spots available for those that want to go down a contrarian route, but Reavie's price tag is difficult to ignore.

Jason Kokrak ($6,800)

Jason Kokrak's 2020 season came to a halt before East Lake, but it wasn't from a lack of effort. The American posted three straight top-15 results, which included a sixth-place finish at the BMW Championship. Kokrak is a sensational ball striker that also gets distance off the tee, and we should see Winged Foot enhance some of those traits.

Kevin Na ($6,800)

In Kevin Na's previous six U.S. Open's, the 36-year-old has generated five top-32 results, which includes a seventh-place effort in 2016. Na's scrambling and around the green prowess should shine through at a venue that will need creativity, and his putter is always capable of keeping him in an event.

Brian Harman ($6,400)

The biggest disparity on this week's model belongs to Brian Harman, who comes in 79 spots lower on DraftKings than my spreadsheet has him projected. It is not often that I have mid-$6,000 players jump inside the top-10 in multiple variations of running the spreadsheet, and it is a big enough head-turner for me to take notice in all markets.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:


Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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Categories
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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Safeway Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Dustin Johnson capped off an amazing stretch of play by winning the Tour Championship last week. With the victory, DJ also claimed the FedEx Cup and a huge $15 million payday.

I'll be filling in for the great Spencer Aguiar this week. While I won't be able to equal Spencer's amazing DK analysis, we'll dive into some of my favorite plays for the Safeway Open, a tournament that features one of the weakest fields we've seen in quite some time.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Safeway Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Safeway Open - PGA DFS Overview

Silverado Resort & Spa North

7,166 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa Annua

A small group led by Johnny Miller purchased this Robert Trent Jones Jr.-designed property in 2010. Miller quickly orchestrated a fairly extensive re-design which has been well received. This is a classic layout with tough-to-hit, tree-lined fairways that places an emphasis on accuracy off the tee. Elite ball striking is required at Silverado and will be an area that I will target heavily, while iron play will also take its usual prominent place in my research process. Recent winners here are players that I would largely place in the "ball strikers" category, with most being known for their length and ability off the tee. I'll also glance at scrambling and around-the-green ability this week, as this tournament definitely isn't a "birdiefest", with the average winning score at around 15-under par. For the first time in a while, we'll see true California Poa Annua greens. Poa is notoriously tricky, so I'll definitely be keeping an eye on players that have positive putting splits on Poa.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Safeway Open Tour Average
Driving Distance 284 281
Driving Accuracy 52% 62%
GIR Percentage 67% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 59% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.55 0.56

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Par-Five Scoring
  • Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained Off The Tee
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Scrambling
  • Strokes Gained Putting (Poa Annua)

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

Si Woo Kim ($10,800)

There's definitely a bit of sticker shock that comes with seeing Si Woo Kim atop the salary scale this week. As we'll see throughout the slate, this Safeway field is an especially weak one. Kim is such a volatile player that it is a bit tough to swallow him at this price, but he has played consistently good as of late, with a third-place finish at the Wyndham being the highlight of a very strong August.  He's gained strokes T2G in five-straight starts dating back to the Memorial, though his Safeway record is nothing fancy - a T49 and a MC in two starts since 2016 - which makes his place at the top of the board even more suspect. We have to understand that pricing is gonna make us feel uncomfortable this week - it's just the nature of these events with weaker fields - but even taking that into account, I can't personally pull the trigger on Si Woo here.

Phil Mickelson ($10,600)

Another head-scratcher here, as Lefty's price feels inflated even with the watered-down nature of this field. Phil Mickelson does possess a very strong course history in this and displayed that he still has game with a third-place finish at the WGC in Memphis and a win in his Champions Tour debut a couple of weeks ago. I really don't hate the play, as he's demonstrated that he still has some juicy upside, but like with Kim, Phil's extremely tough to swallow at this price point.

Brendan Steele ($10,000)

Goes without saying that the price is gross, but Steele is an intriguing option this week. He's won twice on this golf course (2017 & '18) and has flashed some form in 2020 after a disastrous 2019. Steele has gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in his each of last six starts. He also leads this field by a rather comfortable margin in SG: Total for this event since 2016.

Joel Dahmen ($9,500)

Dahmen's history at the Safeway is pretty ugly - MC/T49/MC since 2016 - but his play since the restart warrants him consideration. Dahmen has recorded five top-20 finishes in nine post-layoff starts and possesses top-10 upside this week. As with basically every player in this field, we're taking on some volatility with him, but his recent standard of play is as high as anyone available to us this week.

Harold Varner III ($9,100)

Finally a play that at least feels like a good one. HV3 brings a nice blend of recent form and course history to the table this week. Varner has made five-straight cuts at Silverado, with three finishes inside the top-17 among those starts. Varner heads to the Safeway ranked fourth in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds and had played well at both the PGA Championship and the Wyndham before his season ended in the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the Northern Trust.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Cameron Davis ($8,900)

Things start to become a tiny bit more palatable as we move down into the mid-range of the salary scale. Cameron Davis certainly jumps out at $8.9k. The young Aussie is a streaky player, but closed out the season in sharp fashion over his last four starts, going T12/T32/T15/T29 before his season ended after the Northern Trust. He stands first in the Safeway field in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds and scored a T17 finish at Silverado two years ago.

Sam Burns ($8,700)

Burns fits the player profile that I'm looking for this week rather nicely. He ranks seventh in this field in both Birdie Opportunies Gained and Par-5 scoring. His ability off the tee (third in the field SG: OTT) is reminiscent of former Safeway winners Cameron Champ and Brendan Steele. Burns put together a strong stretch of results after the restart, making five of seven cuts with three top-25 finishes.

Mark Hubbard ($8,100)

One of the biggest surprises since the restart has been Mark Hubbard. He had popped a couple of times early in 2020, but played very consistent golf post-layoff, making the cut in all nine of his starts since play resumed, often against star-studded fields. Hubbard brings that steady style to a Silverado course where he posted a T13 in last year's Safeway and feels like a "safe" play on a slate that doesn't have many.

Patrick Rodgers ($7,600)

We'll round out the "mid-range" with Patrick Rodgers. Rodgers isn't going to jump out at us statistically, but his game doesn't translate well to every course. I believe the Stanford product is a good fit at Silverado and his history in the Safeway - four made cuts in five starts since 2016 with a T6 and a T25 - reflects just that. He's a long-knocker that should play the four Par-5s well and he ranks seventh in this field in SG: Putting on Poa.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Cameron Tringale ($7,500)

Cameron Tringale hasn't been super-active since the restart, but he's shown enough over his six post-layoff starts to earn consideration this week. Tringale hasn't had many high finishes at the Safeway, but he has made the cut in four of his last five starts on this Silverado layout. His iron play stands out this week and he comes in ranked third in this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds.

Luke List ($7,400)

List fits the "Brendan Steele, Emiliano Grillo mold" that has worked on this layout before...great ball striker, horrible putter. The Vandy product nabbed a win on the Korn Ferry Tour after the restart and also posted a top-10 finish at the Memorial. He's found some success at the Safeway, scoring a T4 in this event two years ago and making the cut in three of his last four starts at Silverado. He undoubtedly inconsistent, but there's some nice upside here at $7.4k.

Talor Gooch ($7,300)

I feel like I'm constantly chasing Talor Gooch in DFS, as his inconsistency can drive those of us that routinely roster him absolutely crazy. I'm back on board again this week, as we know the talent is there at his $7.3k price tag. I can easily see Gooch getting himself into contention this week, but I could also see him missing the cut. He's the very definition of a boom/bust GPP option.

Wesley Bryan ($7,100)

We haven't had many chances to roster Wesley Bryan lately, but I've routinely leaned on him when he has teed it up. Bryan has been on fire with his irons since returning from an injury, gaining strokes on approach (often a massive amount of strokes) and T2G in all four of his post-layoff starts. He grades out fifth in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. Bryan's track record at Silverado is nothing fancy, but I'm always interested in hot iron players with cheap price tags.

Xinjun Zhang ($7,000)

A true GPP dart throw this week, Xinjun Zhang has only two cuts in nine post-layoff starts. However, in those two events where he made the weekend he posted finishes of T10 and T12. Zhang is volatile, but there is some upside here. He's also played well at Silverado, recording a T7 and a T37 in his two career Safeway starts. Strictly a "gut" call.

Adam Schenk ($6,900)

Since I'm filling in for Spencer this week, it feels right to close out the article with one of "his guys".  Adam Schenk is a player that Spencer has written up a few times with great success. I'm willing to go back to the well with him at $6.9k this week, as he has a nice enough blend of recent form and course history (a T14 here two years ago) to consider as a value option. Schenk ranks fifth in this week's field in SG: Par-5s and is an interesting option for those of us that might be forced to punt our sixth roster spot.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Tour Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! What a tournament we had at the BMW Championship, as Jon Rahm stormed his way up the leaderboard on the weekend to defeat Dustin Johnson in a playoff. It was a chaotic finish from the duo down the stretch, with the American connecting on a 43-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff - only to be outdone by Rahm, who drained a 66-footer of his own during the first hole of sudden death.

As far as DraftKings is concerned, we had some massive win totals posted by various readers of this article because of the condensed core we discussed that featured the likes of Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Kokrak and Brian Harman. Be sure to send me your winning screenshots to get featured in this article moving forward, and congratulations to everyone that hit it big last weekend in Illinois!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Tour Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Tour Championship - PGA DFS Overview

East Lake

7,350 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

The staggered starting positions for the Tour Championship will give us a unique format to dissect, but I do think it is important to remember that players starting 10-back of the lead will have their hands full to actually capture the title. East Lake isn't a course where you can pick up strokes in bunches, which is evident by the winning score (non-bonus starting amount) typically ending at around 12 to 13-under par. Golfers beginning the event from way behind will need multiple facets to come in properly if they want to make a run for the riches, and I think it is essential to start your builds with as many players near the top as possible. That doesn't mean we won't need to connect on the lower-priced options down the board, but it does suggest that a more stars-and-scrubs nature should be taken since we need to make sure we pinpoint the winner for the finale.

East Lake is a challenging test that will make sure everyone earns their payday. The par-fours at the property are long, and it is essential to keep a clean scorecard until you have an opportunity to strike. Those edges typically come on the two par-fives - which each yield over a 40 percent birdie rate to go along with a small chance for eagle. Rory McIlroy gained nearly 53% of his scoring total at those two locations in 2019, making it a must-have place to pick up strokes on the field.

The greens feature Bermuda grass with shaved runoffs, and it will be important to miss shots in the correct quadrant. Golfers who do ultimately end up missing their targets will need to be able to gain strokes around the green, and there are 74 bunkers and six water hazards at the venue. Perhaps more so than most weeks, we also need to look at mental fortitude. With 15 million dollars on the line, there is going to be no room for error to wilt under the pressure.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Tour Championship Tour Average
Driving Distance 290 281
Driving Accuracy 54% 62%
GIR Percentage 64% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 56% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.45 0.56

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/5 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 3/1, Justin Thomas at 6/1 and Webb Simpson at 14/1. Rory McIlroy, the defending champion of this event, enters the week seven-back and at a price tag of 25/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Approach 20%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
  • Ball Striking 17.5%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 12.5%
  • Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
  • Sand Save Percentage 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($15,200)

Will Dustin Johnson be able to run and hide at East Lake? That is the question that could earn him 15 million dollars. The American doesn't have the best course history with two finishes outside the top-15 in the last five years, but he does have three top-sixes thrown into the mix. Johnson's range is wider than most consider, and while he could go wire-to-wire for a runaway victory, there are 80s in his arsenal that could ruin his chances. You have to take a stance somewhere to win these small-field events, and I'll be fading Johnson and hoping for the best.

Jon Rahm ($12,700)

A strong argument can be made that Jon Rahm possesses value at his $12,700 price tag on DraftKings. I'm much more inclined to splurge on the Spaniard at a reduction of $2,500 from DJ, and I think his upside for victory/overall level of consistency should have him in the mix late on Sunday.

Justin Thomas ($11,900)

It is the Tour Championship; let's take a firm stance in this article. Justin Thomas will be your winner of the FedExCup playoffs. Thomas starts just three shots back of Dustin Johnson and gets a $3,300 discount for his troubles on DraftKings. The American is the top-ranked player in the world when it comes to par-five scoring, and I'd expect him to make a similar move that we saw Rory McIlroy do last season of earning nearly 54% of his strokes on these more accessible holes. If he can follow that blueprint, expect Thomas to have a chance to be the man you want to own for the week.

Webb Simpson ($11,100)

Webb Simpson doesn't look so crazy anymore by only losing what amounted to one shot after skipping the BMW Championship. The extra rest could provide wonders for the 35-year-old, but he is going to need to improve his par-five scoring to catch the leaders. Simpson has become a more volatile golfer in 2020, so I am not discounting that we see him chase down the group above him and walk out of Atlanta $15,000,000 richer.

Collin Morikawa ($10,400), Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100)

We have an extremely interesting group here to wrap up the $10,000 and above range. I view both golfers as GPP-only options because of their volatility, but they provide the upside needed to catch the leaders if they can get hot. Neither is grading out as value for me on the surface, but that doesn't mean we don't see one (or both) light up Atlanta and make a run for the title.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Rory McIlroy ($9,700)

We might have to stomach the possibility that Rory McIlroy could burn us and ignore the Irishman. McIlroy has already stated that his child's birth takes top priority, and the possibility of him withdrawing from the event becomes even more amplified with him beginning the week seven shots back. The 31-year-old has name value baked into this price tag, and I'd prefer to pay incorrectly for a player like DeChambeau if I am shooting for upside.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)

I can't help but feel like Hideki Matsuyama missed his chance of ending his winless drought at the BMW Championship. The Japanese sensation looked wild off the tee over the weekend, culminating in him falling just two shots short of the playoff. The 20th-ranked player in the world will always grade out well statistically, but it is hard for me to ignore what might happen if his par saves stop dropping from six feet.

Daniel Berger ($9,100)

Daniel Berger is going to be popular. It is difficult to say how popular compared to his counterparts, but I think strong evidence states that he will be the most played option on the board. That doesn't necessarily help with deciding what to do with him for the week, but I do believe Berger will outperform his DraftKings price that ranks him as the ninth overall player. I'm not sure we ultimately get a victory out of the American, but it is tricky to ignore the rebated cost.

Xander Schauffele ($8,900)

If Daniel Berger or Dustin Johnson don't end up being the most owned golfer, my money would be on Xander Schauffele. The 26-year-old is a superb player in no-cut events because of his aptitude to usually provide one upper-echelon round per week, and we are going to need an aberrational day or two from anyone this far down the board if they want a legitimate chance to find the winner's circle. Schauffele provides just that at a reasonable cost.

Harris English ($8,700)

To me, Harris English is a cash-game only type of play. His lack of upside has reduced his salary to $8,700, but it isn't easy to be overly encouraged about his chances to generate the amount of upside needed to take down a GPP event.

Patrick Reed ($8,500)

East Lake has proven to be a headache for Patrick Reed in the past. Given a six-under start here last season, Reed only could muster a ninth-place result, and he has failed to crack the top-23 in three of his additional four starts since 2015.

Tony Finau ($8,200)

You are paying up marginally for Tony Finau's birdie-making skills and name recognition, but you won't hear any massive gripes from me if you do decide to go down this route. Finau may slip into some of my builds because of how I plan to create my core, but I do recognize that he is going to be a trendy choice.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Scottie Scheffler ($7,900)

I had Scottie Scheffler rated better before making some minor adjustments to my model, but the rookie is still grading out as someone reasonably priced on DraftKings for the Tour Championship. Scheffler's ability to score in bunches will make him a popular selection, and that is all you can ask for when trying to build a unique construction

Brendon Todd ($7,600)

I continue to be underweight to Brendon Todd because of the lack of weight I put into short game figures, and I feel as if his lack of consistency with his irons will eventually catch up to him. It might not be this weekend at East Lake, but Todd's approach numbers are virtually dead last in the field across the board from each range.

Sungjae Im ($7,300)

It is hard to be overly encouraged by the current stretch we have seen from Sungjae Im, but there is a disparity present if we decide to cling onto the lowest priced option by $1,400 of the four-under par golfers. I'm not going to have my week decided on the South Korean deciding to show up for the final event of the 2020 season, but I also don't think it hurts to sneak him into a few GPP lineups here and there.

Tyrell Hatton ($7,000)

We got our second straight quality outing from Tyrrell Hatton at the BMW Championship, who seems to be trending back towards the early-season form that saw him generate four top-sixes in four events. We aren't quite back to that level of production, but Hatton is beginning to peak again at the right time.

Kevin Kisner ($6,800)

Kevin Kisner provided his fifth straight top-25 result at the BMW Championship. That level of form shouldn't be ignored, but it will come at a cost. The American will be an extremely popular choice, and I believe his plodding nature reduces the upside some are expecting him to generate.

Viktor Hovland ($6,600)

What should we expect during Viktor Hovland's first crack at the Tour Championship? Recent form would suggest less than some might be anticipating, but the Danish golfer will get a chance to fire freely starting this event at even par. Perhaps too much of the upside is already baked into the pricing, but Hovland has the game to make birdies at will when he gets hot.

Joaquin Niemann ($6,300)

In my opinion, Joaquin Niemann is mispriced at $6,300 and should be closer to $7,000 for the event. There aren't many players in the world who can catch fire quite as well as the Chilean does, and taking the stroke advantage over some of his counterparts in this range might play a factor down the stretch.

Abraham Ancer ($6,100)

Unfortunately, Abraham Ancer's season never quite got back on track after his two-week break between the Travelers Championship and the Memorial. I don't entirely trust his around the green game to perform at the level needed to climb up the leaderboard, and I most likely will find myself underweight to the field.

Sebastian Munoz ($5,900)

Sebastian Munoz's three-under par starting total makes him a much more intriguing prospect than we would otherwise have gotten if he was starting at even-par, but I don't want to place too much value on it a number that is still seven shots off the lead. Munoz is presumably value in a vacuum, but his upside isn't enough to warrant a ton of GPP consideration. That makes me like him more for cash games, but I'm still not necessarily jumping for joy with that either.

Billy Horschel ($5,700)

Billy Horschel's second-place showing here in 2018 mixed with his current form will likely make him the most owned option under $6,000. I originally planned on the idea that the Florida native would be a possibility worth considering at the right price, but I'm not sure $5,700 is that number. Frankly, there are just choices I like better down this low, and the popularity of the 33-year-old is a bit of a turn off.

Lanto Griffin ($5,600)

It is good to see that DraftKings undervalued Lanto Griffin to end the season once again. If nothing else, they have been consistent. Griffin is the lowest priced player at two-under par by $700 under Joaquin Niemann, and while I do believe he is the weakest play of the group, he isn't as far off as some might imagine. Griffin has legitimate upside to blow past his starting price and is my biggest mispricing on the board.

Kevin Na ($5,500)

Kevin Na probably has the weakest course history of anyone that has competed in this event once since 2015. The 36-year-old has failed to crack the top-16, and his previous two showings have resulted in finishes outside the top-24.

Ryan Palmer ($5,400)

There is never a guarantee for what you will get with Ryan Palmer, but it does help the situation when you can acquire him inside the bottom 15 percent of selections on the board. Palmer has the ability to use his par-five scoring ability to make a run up the leaderboard, and I don't believe a top-15 showing is out of the cards for the Texan.

Cameron Champ ($5,300)

Which version of Cameron Champ will we get at the Tour Championship? If it is the one we got during the PGA Championship, we might be onto something at his $5,300 price tag. Champ's length could be a positive for him if he gets hot, although his shoddy around the green totals quickly start to disparage any hope of him making a run. For whatever upside you think the American might have, there is also a world where he comes in dead last for the week. The risk is up to you.

Mackenzie Hughes ($5,200)

Good on Mackenzie Hughes for his up-and-down from the bunker on the 72nd hole to qualify for the finale.  That result gives him a career-changing outcome, but I am afraid the feel-good story will end there this season.

Cameron Smith ($5,100)

If your goal is to shoot for the fence and hope for the best, Cameron Smith might be your best option under Ryan Palmer. The Aussie has yielded back-to-back top-20 results, and we do seem to be in a situation where he has done it so quietly that he will go off as one of the lowest owned plays on the board.

Marc Leishman ($5,000)

What has happened to Marc Leishman's game? Crazier things have occurred in life, but the Aussie is coming into the week after shooting a tournament-worst 30-over par at the BMW Championship. Even as contrarian as I tend to be, I can't condone going down that path with someone who is clearly struggling past the point of what is being shown on paper.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): BMW Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Dustin Johnson captured his 22nd victory on the PGA Tour in emphatic fashion, firing a record-setting 30-under par to win by 11 shots. Johnson's total placed him in rarified air alongside Ernie Els (-31) and Jordan Spieth (-30) as only the third golfer in PGA Tour history since 1950 to shoot a -30 or better.

I realize the American often catches a lot of flack for his inability to close out major championships, but his resume speaks for itself, which includes a U.S. Open title, five FedExCup wins, six WGC victories and a ridiculous 41% rate of finishing inside the top-10 in his grand slam events. Johnson is a first-ballot Hall of Famer for a reason, and it is about time we stop discrediting his career accomplishments because of only one major to his name.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - BMW Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

BMW Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Olympia Fields

7,343 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua/Bentgrass

Olympia Fields will host their first PGA Tour event since the 2003 U.S. Open this weekend for the BMW Championship. It always makes things complicated with what to expect when we get a venue that hasn't been in the rotation for a few years, and it requires us to play a bit of a guessing game without detailed statistical data to back up our views.

However, that doesn't mean we can't deduce and anticipate what it will demand. The first thing that stuck out to me was that the course is measuring in at 7,343 yards. That might not seem like a ton on paper, but the par-70 nature of the event can quickly turn that length into a brutal test. That should signify long iron play will be at a premium, and golfers will most likely need a short game to account for the lower GIR percentage that will surely come into play from an extended distance.

I will be adding a good mixture of off the tee and approach to my weights, as well as driving statistics that I will gear more towards total driving. Harding Park seems like a reasonable corollary test for research purposes, but I wouldn't get so caught up that we last saw this property played as a major championship. The PGA Tour likes birdie fests during the playoffs, and there is no reason to believe the venue will be regulated towards trying to embarrass the last 70 players before East Lake.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Olympia Fields Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.56

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 10/1, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau at 14/1 and Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy at 18/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Off the Tee + Approach 20%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 15%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
  • Ball Striking 15%
  • Overall Birdie or Better 12.5%
  • Scrambling 12.5%
  • Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

We continue to play musical chairs at the top of the DraftKings pricing board, and it is now Dustin Johnson that will take center stage as the man to beat. The inconsistency of the pricing shows how deep the fields are nowadays, but it also proves that we don't have a player like Tiger Woods that could be counted on for a weekly top result. If Johnson is the route you want to go, you won't hear a gripe from me - although I would argue you are overpaying because of his previous two results. That doesn't make the American a bad selection; it just makes him less of a value than others.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

I touched on this fact last week that Jon Rahm should be an $11,000 golfer weekly, and we see him move back into that territory after a sixth-place finish at the Northern Trust. The Spaniard might be the most likely man to provide you a steady result of anyone up top, and his upside for victory is there.

Justin Thomas ($10,800)

It has been a helter-skelter restart for Justin Thomas, who has provided four top-10 results and three finishes outside the top-35 in his eight starts. We always discuss how Thomas is one of the best players in the world when you give him a guaranteed four rounds, and he will get just that again at a venue that should highlight his strengths. We are grasping at straws here trying to separate the top few names, and sometimes it has to come down to which player has the best value. Thomas should theoretically be the highest priced option, which renders some value at his $10,800 tag.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,600)

I'd pump the brakes with the narrative that Bryson DeChambeau won the 2015 U.S. Amateur at this venue in 2015. Match Play is an entirely different game than what we get in stroke play competition, and while he did outlast the likes of Jon Rahm en route to the title, the word 'amateur' should mean something in describing the overall quality of the field. DeChambeau's upside is as massive as his frame to find the winner's circle once again, but I think it is essential to narrow your selection down to him for the right reasons. If you believe off the tee prowess and scoring will be the main recipe for success, DeChambeau might be your man.

Rory McIlroy ($10,300)

We are getting very close to where we will just have to close our eyes and hope for the best out of Rory McIlroy if we decide to take him. I'm not sure I am there yet at his $10,300 salary, but another questionable performance might shrink the Irishman into a range that is too difficult to ignore. As things stand, I am still playing the waiting game, but there is no arguing that McIlroy could get back on track at a venue that fits his skills.

Webb Simpson ($10,100)

Webb Simpson is my favorite DK play this week. His $10,100 price tag should keep him somewhat under the radar compared to the big boys up top, but his overall performance level weekly has turned him into one of the elite players in the game. Length off the tee will have some importance, but the core of what I expect Olympia Fields to require out of the golfers will be long iron proximity and the ability to scramble and avoid bogeys. There's a reason why this test was used as a U.S. Open venue, and even if the difficulty will be greatly subsided for the week, Simpson has become one of the best scorers in the world.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Xander Schauffele ($9,900)

All I have read so far this week is that Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa should be priced higher than Xander Schauffele. I want to be careful in wording the stance I am about to take because I believe all three are elite talents that can win the tournament this weekend, but there is a massive difference between a 15% owned Schauffele and a potentially 35% owned Berger. Everyone always wants to discuss how great Schauffele is during no-cut events, but that narrative has been thrown out the window by some entering the BMW Championship. Look, I am not saying he necessarily posts a better result than either of the two previously mentioned golfers, but I am all about leveraging ownership when given the opportunity. None of that is to say I won't play Schauffele alongside a player like Berger in spots, but let's not forget about the 10th-ranked player altogether.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,000)

DraftKings has taken a bit more of an aggressive stance with Scottie Scheffler than the outright market, placing him 11th in DK position compared to his 14th place outright total. Honestly, both still feel like values for Scheffler after posting back-to-back fourth-place showings, and I am perfectly okay with jumping back on the bandwagon for another tournament.

Tiger Woods ($8,600)

No matter what Tiger Woods does from a tournament-by-tournament perspective, we will never get a deviation in pricing that will place him much lower than his current $8,600 salary. However, what we will get is a reduced level of interest from gamers that get tired of going back down the well and not getting a positive return on their investment. I don't often say this, but I think Woods is accurately priced for the BMW Championship at $8,600, which does provide upside if we believe we can acquire the 82-time PGA Tour winner at less than 10 percent ownership.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500)

When we can remove the uncertainty of a missed cut and guarantee Hideki Matsuyama four rounds of golf, he is a golfer that should be priced above $9,000 every single time. Matsuyama is an elite ball-striker, and I struggle to justify him not being a top-15 priced option on the board. He makes enough birdies to usually pay off his price tag, which completely denounces the narrative that he can't win. We don't need that from him at a mid-$8,000 total.

Adam Scott ($8,200)

Adam Scott doesn't get a pass for his four-over round on Saturday at the Northern Trust because we have seen this story one too many times, but his negative-5.315 strokes on the greens was a little out of leftfield with what we have seen from him over the past year. Scott has gained strokes with his flat stick in seven of his previous 10 tournaments, and he even managed to only lose 1.9 strokes in total after his disastrous round three effort. Scott's ball-striking is there, and we could see him bounce back in a big way.

Viktor Hovland ($8,100)

It was a relatively quiet 68 and 66 from Viktor Hovland over the weekend at the Northern Trust, but it seems to have caught the attention of the DFS world. Hovland's long iron prowess and total driving skills could make him a dangerous golfer this weekend in Illinois, but there are always concerns to be had over his short game. Hovland isn't immune to a poor finish, but the upside is there for him to post a top-10 result.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Russell Henley ($7,800)

It has been a superb last two weeks for Russell Henley, who has posted back-to-back top-10 showings at the Northern Trust and Wyndham Championship. I had some concerns last weekend that the Northern Trust might be too long for his game, but he dispelled that notion with another quality ball-striking effort. I'm done questioning Henley, and his game appears to be peaking for the playoffs.

Abraham Ancer ($7,700)

I am willing to throw last week's debacle out the window for Abraham Ancer. I don't believe the 29-year-old was as bad as the stats might indicate, and it ended with him losing strokes off the tee for the first time in 11 events. I begin to worry some when the venues stretch out in length for Ancer, but it is difficult to ignore Ancer at around five percent ownership when you consider his acumen for ball striking and total driving.

Ryan Palmer ($7,600)

Make it four straight top-45 finishes from Ryan Palmer after his eighth-place showing at the Northern Trust. Palmer's lack of win equity sometimes affects his overall price tag, and I think a similar sentiment could be said in this situation. Palmer is deserving of being priced in the $8,000 range, and I will take the discount that is presented.

Jason Kokrak ($7,500)

From a pure upside perspective, Jason Kokrak is one of my favorite options on the board under $8,000. The American has provided two straight finishes inside the top-15, and he possesses the distance and ball striking game needed to make the BMW Championship the site of his first win. I am not going to go quite that far with my prediction, but I do think we can sneak in another quality finish at $7,500.

Brian Harman ($6,900)

Sure, there is no doubt that Brian Harman's around the green numbers have helped him over the last few weeks, but the 121st-ranked player in the world seems to be peaking at the right time. Harman earned strokes in all the main strokes gained stats last weekend at the Northern Trust, making it just the first time he has done that since November of 2019.

Joel Dahmen ($6,500)

Brendan Steele ($6,600) and Talor Gooch ($6,600) are two options that I do like under $7,000, but each man is projected to carry over 15% ownership for the week. For that reason, I prefer keeping them inside my cash-game range and attempting to go a little outside of the box with Joel Dahmen. The 32-year-old is grading out nearly identical for me to his two listed counterparts, and I believe his projected 10% reduction in ownership makes him a much better GPP pivot to consider.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Northern Trust

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Jim Herman captured his second PGA Tour victory over the past 13 months, which ironically was also just his second top-25 result over his previous 55 PGA Tour events. That sort of volatility is a decent indicator to keep in mind when trying to pick golfers with a boom-or-bust nature, although a win like Herman's is almost impossible to see coming when it comes to just the stats.

As far as our article was concerned, we did a great job highlighting Patrick Reed, Billy Horschel, Harris English, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley and Bud Cauley, but we did come up short on Ryan Moore. We will try to keep the positive momentum rolling into the FedExCup playoffs, so without further ado, let's see if we can pinpoint where the value is on the DraftKings board this week.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Northern Trust

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Northern Trust - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Boston

7,342 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

And. Here. We. Go! With the FedExCup playoffs upon us, golf's mad dash to the finish line will begin at this week's Northern Trust. One hundred and twenty-five of the world's best players will attempt to stay alive at TPC Boston and hopefully get themselves in a position to compete for a title along the way.

The venue presents many similarities to the recent PGA Championship held at Harding Park, which will emphasize connecting on fairways and controlling distance with long irons. Fairways are a little easier to hit for this week's test, but second shots will be lengthy, with nearly 47 percent coming from 175 yards or beyond.

I'm never one that places much emphasis on putting, but the greens are lightning quick and will favor golfers that prefer fast surfaces. That doesn't mean to get carried away with the weight you attach to bent putting, but it wouldn't hurt to look at players that excel when given a speedier test. The winning score is typically 15-under par or better, so finding players that can rack up birdies will be necessary, especially on the easily accessible par-fives.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat TPC Boston Tour Average
Driving Distance 284 281
Driving Accuracy 65% 62%
GIR Percentage 66% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 60% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.57 0.56

In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas lead the way at 12/1 and are followed by Rory McIlroy at 14/1, Jon Rahm/Dustin Johnson at 16/1 and Collin Morikawa at 20/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Off The Tee + Approach 20%
  • Par-Four Efficiency 400-500 Yards + Bogey Avoidance 15%
  • Par-Five Birdie Or Better 15%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
  • Overall Birdie Or Better 12.5%
  • Around The Green + Bunker 12.5%
  • Lightning-Quick Bent Putting L50 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Justin Thomas ($11,300)

It is one of those spots where we have too many high-end options and not enough room to fit all of them into the $11,000 range That leaves us with a situation where we are forced to grasp at straws up top and hope we choose the best player for the week. In a vacuum, Justin Thomas is likely the most deserving golfer to feature as the highest priced option, with the American doing just about everything you would hope to see at TPC Boston. His ability to putt on quick Bentgrass greens shouldn't be discounted, and he features a premier skillset around the greens and in the bunkers.

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100)

Relatively wide fairways should mean it is bombs away for Bryson DeChambeau at the Northern Trust, although there are trees that come into play if the 26-year-old does veer wildly off course. DeChambeau is technically the defending champion at the venue after winning at TPC Boston during its last stop on the PGA Tour in 2018, and he possesses the game to get the job done again.

Rory McIlroy ($10,800)

Rory McIlroy has turned into the mystery man of what to do with weekly. The Irishman has failed to crack the top-10 since the restart, and while I do believe TPC Boston sets up nicely for him - which is shown by his victory here in 2016 - you are just flipping a coin on what to expect. Unless we are projected to get a five percent owned version of McIlroy, I'd prefer to play the waiting game and see some life before jumping back into the fray.

Dustin Johnson ($10,400)

Random portions of inconsistency have marred Dustin Johnson's season. On the surface, there haven't been too many complaints to be had for his production level, but far too often victories have been followed by rounds in the 80s and then again followed by second-place showings. That makes Johnson a relatively intriguing prospect to consider in GPP contests, and his three straight top-18 results at the property would mirror that sentiment.

Collin Morikawa ($10,200)

We get to see Collin Morikawa for the first time since becoming a major champion in San Francisco, and it appears as if sportsbooks and DFS sites are a little confused about how to treat him for the week. I tend to lean towards this being a relatively fair price when we consider all factors that come into play, but can we be sure that he isn't actually the best player in the world? I'll most likely find myself pivoting onto Jon Rahm in spots, but it doesn't mean Morikawa won't be a part of my player pool.

Jon Rahm ($10,000)

Jon Rahm is the prime example of too many players that should be priced near the top of the board and not enough room to fit them all in as implied $11,000 options. Rahm is just a few weeks removed from being the number one player in the world, and his reduction in salary will cause the masses to flock to him on DraftKings. However, chalk is not always bad, making Rahm the best value to be had in this high-priced range.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Jason Day ($9,300)

Jason Day has provided eight top-25s at TPC Boston over the past 10 seasons, including nearly taking down the contest in back-to-back years in 2010 and 2011. The amount you play Day is going to come down to what side of the aisle you find yourself on when it comes to his current game. One could argue that Day is finally appropriately priced after sitting in limbo over the past two seasons, but there is a mindset that will dictate that we still haven't reached his peak performance capabilities. I tend to lean towards the latter, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him finally get the win he has been chasing at the venue.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,200)

Rory McIlroy's failure in recent weeks has given a pass to Patrick Cantlay, who hasn't finished inside the top-30 since the Workday Charity Open. I don't have a great answer to what has gone wrong because he hasn't been overly faulty in any area, but things as a whole haven't been put together simultaneously. Cantlay will get another spot to rebound at a test where he has provided two top-25 results in his career, and it does feel like a situation he should take advantage of with all facets of his game.

Patrick Reed ($9,000)

A triple bogey on Saturday at the Wyndham Championship took Patrick Reed out of the running to win the tournament, but a strong close on Sunday settled him into a share of ninth-place. Reed has provided three top-six results at TPC Boston over the last four years and brings the form to get the job done again at a venue that will reward his style of play.

Daniel Berger ($8,900), Tony Finau ($8,800)

It wouldn't shock me to see Daniel Berger and Tony Finau potentially go off as the two highest priced plays on the board. Options start to thin out quickly once we get under $7,500 in salary, and most builds will probably dictate a steadier distribution where the two Americans fall into a ton of lineups. I prefer Finau over Berger when deciding between the two, but I have both inside the top-15 of my model.

Tiger Woods ($8,700)

The expectations are always so high around Tiger Woods that anything outside of a top-five finish is considered a disappointment, but I thought there were a ton of signs of life from the 82-time PGA Tour winner in San Francisco. Woods showed that he is still one of the best iron players in the world, and it has just been his putting that has kept him down over his last few starts. The days where Tiger is owned by 50 percent of DFS players is a thing of the past, and he does provide some intriguing upside at around a 10 percent ownership projection.

Adam Scott ($8,400)

The lack of golf we have seen from Adam Scott gives us some value at his $8,400 price tag on DraftKings. For comparison sake, that total places him 18th in salary compared to the field, but his 40/1 outright number puts him a few points lower at 15th overall. That should show us that there is potentially some GPP appeal here for those that are looking for upside, but it is worth noting that he has struggled at the property since coming fourth in 2016.

Scottie Scheffler ($8,100)

Nothing about Scottie Scheffler's fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship should be considered a fluke. The 24-year-old is a premier ball-striker that can destroy a course off the tee, and the price jump in salary to over $8,000 should be considered a positive since it will keep some DFS players off of him.

Justin Rose ($8,000)

This narrative you are going to hear all week of Justin Rose being a standout at TPC Boston is valid to an extent after providing two consecutive top-10 results in his previous two attempts, but there is an ugly side to his record where he has only yielded one additional top-50 in his other seven tries since 2009. I'm willing to overlook the negative outputs in the past because of his recent course history, but it is important to note that extreme volatility could be there for the Englishman in Boston - especially when you consider the fact that he has posted three top-14 results to go along with four missed cuts since the restart. I'm all for taking some shots in GPPs if we can grab him at around five percent ownership, but there is no guarantee for what you are going to get.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Matthew Wolff ($7,800), Gary Woodland ($7,800) & Abraham Ancer ($7,700)

Matthew Wolff, Gary Woodland and Abraham Ancer are each technically showing up as having positive value on my model at their price points, but there is no doubt that most of the ownership totals will be leaking into these three. I am not technically running away from playing the group, but I would be careful when it comes to the style of build that I place them into for the week. It probably doesn't make sense to group the entire batch when constructing a GPP lineup, and I do think there are potential pivots available with Sungjae Im at $7,700 and Shane Lowry at $7,500. GPPs could be decided if you can choose correctly, but we are dealing with thin margins of separation.

Harold Varner III ($7,400)

One of the secondary points that will play out as the week goes on is the fight to get into the top-70 to qualify for the BMW Championship. Harold Varner III currently enters the week in 73rd place after positing his first top-10 result of the season, and he will need a decent showing in Boston if he wants to survive and advance. The American is inching closer to finally breaking through on tour, and while it most likely won't happen this week, his game has the potential to log his third straight top-30 finish.

Byeong Hun An ($7,300)

It is funny how players hit peaks and valleys when it comes to their public perception. Byeong Hun An is a prime example of that after being everyone's darling early in the year, but a string of missed cuts turned the South Korean into the butt of the joke because of his propensity to struggle with his putter. Two strong appearances in a row at the WGC and PGA Championship doesn't appear to have changed the narrative all that much, as Hun An is projected to enter the week at under five percent owned. We can harp on his putting and inability to close, but you aren't going to find his upside in many spots this low down the board.

Ryan Palmer ($7,300)

After three consecutive top-50 finishes at the Memorial (2nd), WGC (15th) and PGA Championship (43rd), Ryan Palmer enters the week under the radar once again at his $7,300 price tag. It is always scary when you emphasize weight onto around the green or bunker play because of the lack of consistency the 43-year-old has shown at times, but his overall ball-striking nature shouldn't be discounted at a test that will require skills both off the tee and with irons in hand.

Dylan Frittelli ($7,000)

It has been a hot run for Dylan Frittelli, who is posting strokes gained numbers nearly 40 ranking spots better across the board from his baseline production. That form has yielded four straight top-33 results, which includes three finishes inside the top-25. Frittelli's production hasn't gone unnoticed in the DFS world, but it does indicate he might be too cheaply priced on DraftKings.

Lanto Griffin ($6,700)

This isn't an original statistic that I uncovered and believe it was discovered by Rick Gehman of CBS Sports, but Lanto Griffin has had a propensity of achieving 10-times his value at an alarmingly high rate when priced under $7,000. His $6,500 salary at the PGA Championship generated 71 DK points, and it has been the story of his season that he tends to churn out production at a level that exceeds his price tag. Now, there obviously isn't meant to be a corollary placed here that Griffin is knowingly overperforming his cost, but what it should tell you is that DraftKings has consistently underpriced him in 2020.

Sepp Straka ($6,300)

Three finishes outside the top-60 mixed with three inside the top-20 are what we have gotten out of Sepp Straka since the Rocket Mortgage. That level of erraticness can be both positive and negative for GPP purposes, but he doesn't have to beat out as many players as he usually does to make the cut at the Northern Trust. The field will be starting with nearly 30 fewer players than a typical week, which could provide Straka a tad bit more consistency if we believe he still possesses his upside.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Wyndham Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Collin Morikawa became the youngest golfer in PGA Tour history to break 65 in the final round of a major championship victory on Sunday in San Francisco. The 23-year-old connected on a series of clutch shots late, but it will be his drive on the par-four 16th that will go down in history after driving the green and connecting on a seven-foot eagle putt to essentially close the show.

While the achievement was sweet for anyone who backed Morikawa in the outright betting market at 35/1, it didn't necessarily spell DFS success, with nearly 28% percent of participants taking him in the 'Millionaire Maker.' That level of ownership made cashing without the now three-time PGA Tour winner very difficult, and it didn't even lock in a guarantee for those who owned him. It is one of the reasons why you always need to try to be contrarian in spots, even if you do go down the chalky road in other areas.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Wyndham Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Wyndham Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Sedgefield Country Club

7,127 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

It might not feel as if we are one tournament away from the FedExCup playoffs beginning because of the delay in the season, but here we are with the last event before things ramp up again at the Northern Trust. Overall, the quality of the field will be exponentially subsided from what we just witnessed take place in San Francisco, but there are still some big names worth mentioning for the week. Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose will lead the list of participants, and it will give any golfer outside the top-125 one last chance to book their ticket to Boston.

Sedgefield Country Club was designed by Donald Ross in 1926 but was re-modeled and toughened in 2007 by Kris Spence. The venue can be considered a straightforward par 70, measuring in at 7,127 yards and will reward plodders who can find the fairway off the tee. The greens are typical of a Ross design, featuring small surfaces and undulation throughout the property.

Eight of the par-fours measure between 400-450 yards and the two par-fives at the facility yielded an eagle rate of 6.2% and 3.8%, respectively. Birdie or better percentage will play a factor since the event routinely plays around 20-under par or better, and players who excel with wedges between the distance of 125-175 yards will be at an advantage over the field. Ball striking will play a heavy factor in determining who can create scoring opportunities, and we should place some emphasis on players who excel in finding fairways.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Sedgefield CC Tour Average
Driving Distance 280 283
Driving Accuracy 62% 60%
GIR Percentage 71% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 58% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.69 0.53

In Vegas, as of Monday, Webb Simpson and Brooks Koepka lead the way at 10/1 and are followed by Patrick Reed at 16/1, Tommy Fleetwood at 18/1 and Paul Casey at 20/1. Your defending champion, J.T. Poston, falls further down the board at 60/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Approach 20%
  • Proximity 125-175 Yards 15%
  • Weighted BOB % + Bogey Avoidance 15%
  • Weighted Par-Four 400-500 Yards 15%
  • Fast Bermuda L100 12.5%
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee 12.5%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Brooks Koepka ($11,400)

It was a heartbreaking Sunday for Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship, as the back-to-back winner of the event stumbled to a four-over 74 to fall into 29th place on Sunday. The narrative that the American only cares about winning majors will keep some off of him at his lofty $11,400 price tag on DraftKings, but there is a lot to like from a stylistic standpoint entering the week. Koepka posted a sixth-place result at the venue in 2015 and should be able to use his par-four scoring and Bermuda putting skills to find success once again.

Webb Simpson($11,200)

Webb Simpson has only finished outside 22nd place at Sedgefield Country Club once in his past 10 appearances, making him the most popular option by a substantial margin for the week. With all that being said, can we find any reasons to look elsewhere? Three straight top-three results at the venue mixed with a victory in 2011 won't make that task an easy one, but ownership sometimes causes alternate routes to be taken to avoid a cluster of similar builds. If you do decide to eat the chalk with Simpson, I would advise building an extremely contrarian lineup to go along with him. I'll most likely end up underweight because I'm never a fan of going down 20-plus percent ownership routes, but it is worth noting that longtime caddie Paul Tesori will still not be on his bag for the week. Simpson has posted results of 37th and 12th in the two prior showings without him, but I'd prefer to have all cylinders firing when paying $11,200 for a golfer that is going to yield the popularity that Simpson is projected to garner.

Patrick Reed ($10,700)

There is something to be said about saving $500 from Webb Simpson to Patrick Reed when you are also going to see a reduction of nearly half of the projected ownership. Reed made a frantic dash up the leaderboard late on Sunday at the PGA Championship to post a quiet 13th place result, and his overall quality of scoring should help him better his two 22nd place results at the venue since 2015. Reed is my preferred pivot away from Simpson, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the American walk out of North Carolina victorious.

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500)

It is hard to be overly encouraged by what we have seen from Tommy Fleetwood in his three showings since the restart. Negative-2.3 strokes gained approach doesn't leave much room for encouragement that the Englishman is striking the ball well, and you could even argue that his 29th place result at the PGA Championship was nothing more than an outlier round that still only saw him gain 0.27 shots with his irons. I have a difficult time going down the path of Fleetwood until we see him turn things around, and it doesn't help that Bermuda has been his worst putting surface lately.

Paul Casey ($10,300)

Paul Casey draws the perfect combination here to jump back into being a $10,000 option for the week. A second-place result at the PGA Championship combined with two top-13 finishes at Sedgefield Country Club since 2015 places Casey in a spot of power, but should we forgive the past transgressions that saw from him of not posting a result better than 67th place in three events, which should even be questioned since that finish came in a no-cut field of fewer than 80 players? To answer this shortly, I am perfectly fine with the idea of going back to the Englishman for the week. His lack of win equity would drive me off him slightly in GPP contests, but there is enough there to warrant cash-game safety at a fair price tag.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Justin Rose ($9,900)

If we look at where Justin Rose has found the majority of his recent success, par-70 layouts take front and center. A third place at the Charles Schwab, 14th at the Heritage and ninth at the PGA Championship should highlight that point, but outcomes haven't always been ideal between those results. Rose has a GPP-winning upside, but it is hard to ignore his aberrational 7.1 strokes gained on the greens at Harding Park. Consider him a volatile option for the week.

Harris English ($9,300)

We get a massive decrease between Justin Rose to Harris English after Abraham Ancer was forced to withdraw from the tournament. English has provided four straight top-19 finishes, including an 11th place showing at Sedgefield Country Club in 2018, and even though the American will be one of the most popular options on the board, I am fine deploying him for battle.

Billy Horschel ($9,100)

It is an intriguing range between Harris English and Billy Horschel, as I have both guys underpriced throughout all spectrums of the market. As I mentioned for English, the loss of Abraham Ancer from this field will generate extra ownership to this small quadrant, but Horschel has the putting skills on Bermuda and current form to outperform his price.

Shane Lowry ($8,700)

DraftKings made it difficult to find much value on the board above $8,000. Some of it can be designated to proper pricing, and the rest is a factor of questionable options that don't bring as much win equity as it may appear. I have Shane Lowry adequately priced at the exact number he is currently located at for the week, but his upside for success does make him someone worth considering for GPP purposes. For reference sake, the only players above Lowry in price that are also showing up as DK values when I run my model for consistency would be Patrick Reed, Harris English and Billy Horschel.

Sergio Garcia ($8,500)

Sergio Garcia continued his struggles at the PGA Championship, posting back-to-back rounds of 73 en route to a missed weekend. In recent years, Garcia has proven that a PGA Championship layout doesn't seem to suit his game after failing to make the cut in five starts in a row, but Sedgefield's structure should be much more conducive for him to find fortune. Twenty-fourth here in 2018, the Spaniard is the best player in the field in total strokes gained tee to green.

Ryan Moore ($8,100)

One of the premier iron players in this field, Ryan Moore has gained 11.5 shots with his approach game over his past three events - a total he hasn't surpassed over a three-tournament stretch since the summer of 2018. Moore is going to be popular with his back-to-back 12th place finishes to go along with his consecutive top-25s at the venue, but it is challenging to find a reason to avoid the UNLV product in North Carolina.

Corey Conners ($8,000)

A poor Friday round ultimately cost Corey Conners a chance of playing Saturday and Sunday at the PGA Championship, but it might not be a negative that the Canadian didn't have to go through a grueling four days at a major championship venue. Conners should enter the week fresh, and I'd expect a quality effort out of him in all game types.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Joaquin Niemann ($7,900)

I'd be lying if I didn't say I had my concerns with Joaquin Niemann. The Chilean grades out fourth in my model when it just comes to stats, but his recent form has provided two missed cuts and a 52nd place finish during a no-cut event. Niemann is currently projected to garner over 15% ownership for the tournament, which will have me underweight to the field. I realize the 21-year-old is a minefield that I will need to avoid, but the explosion potential goes both ways.

Russell Henley ($7,700)

Russell Henley is ranked first over his past 24 rounds compared to the field in both strokes gained tee to green and approach, which explains the three top-37 finishes over his previous five tournaments. All of that should be viewed as a positive, but Henley is projected to be the fourth highest owned golfer on the DraftKings slate. If you want to use him, he preferably goes better in builds that don't involve Webb Simpson.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700)

If you are looking for a potential pivot away from Russell Henley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout comes in on my model less than one overall point less than Russell Henley when it comes to consistency. That total is enough to place him 12th overall compared to the field, and the heightened emphasis on approach and putting should even further stress his chances that he might be able to find his name on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Bud Cauley ($7,200)

Early in the week, Bud Cauley has gotten lost in the shuffle. I haven't heard many mentions of the Alabama product throughout the industry, which is surprising given his success at Sedgefield throughout his career. Cauley brings with him three made cuts in a row, but it does remain a question mark if the American will be able to produce enough birdies to actually win the event? Thankfully, however, Cauley won't need to generate upside that high at $7,200 to pay for himself.

Sepp Straka ($7,100)

We once again get an underpriced Sepp Straka on DraftKings. His 45th place ranking in salary is 16 places lower than his outright standing of 29th overall, and it is confusing to understand why we continue to see this story play out when Straka has produced five straight made cuts, which includes three top-18 results.

Pat Perez ($6,900)

I'd take this statistic with a grain of salt because many of the players who played Memorial and/or Harding Park were wiped off the map, but Pat Perez leads the field in consecutive rounds of par or better at 13 overall. His missed cut here in 2019 should keep his ownership total decreased, and the 44-year-old might have one last shining moment if he can get hot with his putter.

Kyle Stanley ($6,800)

Anytime we get a ball-striking course that rewards mid-iron play, Kyle Stanley is a name that should come to mind as a sleeper. The 32-year-old is ranked second compared to the field in proximity between 125-175 yards, but it is worth noting that fast Bermuda greens have always caused the American issues. Two top-14 results here in his last three tries is encouraging for a golfer projected to be owned under seven percent, and it doesn't hurt that he has some of the best upside under the $7,000 threshold.

Adam Schenk ($6,700)

I believe we have a case here where Adam Schenk's two missed cuts at the Wyndham Championship are being too negatively weighted into his price tag. Schenk's first missed cut in 2018 came on the heels of a run that had seen him miss seven of nine cuts in a row, and while 2019s failed venture is a little more alarming because his form mimics that of 2020, Schenk has taken some massive strides with his game over the past few months. The 204th-ranked player in the world has made five of seven cuts since the restart and nearly was able to take down the Barracuda Championship before slipping on the weekend during his previous contest.

Cameron Percy ($6,200)

Cameron Percy has been far from steady so far in 2020, but the 46-year-old ranks as the biggest disparity between actual pricing and projected rank in my model. Percy has produced three top-38 finishes at the venue in his past four tries, and he enters the week ranked eighth in strokes gained approach compared to the field.

 

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): PGA Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Justin Thomas captured his 13th career PGA Tour title, outlasting Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger and a slew of additional players down the stretch at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational. Thomas' victory moves him to number one in the world and places him as the man to beat at this week's first major.

The PGA Championship will kick-off a hectic mad-dash over the next three months, and the condensed nature of the schedule might allow a golfer to ride a hot stretch into golf history if they can string together multiple victories during the shortened period. It remains to be seen if that will be the case, but with the first grand slam event finally upon us, let's see if we can figure out where the value is located on DraftKings for the week.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - PGA Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

PGA Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Harding Park

7,251 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bent

Designed in 1925 by Sam Whiting and Willie Watson, Harding Park is located in Western San Francisco and is named after 29th President Warren G. Harding. The venue will be just the fourth time in the 104-year history of the PGA Championship that an event is being held at a municipal golf course. What this typically signifies is that the test will be significantly easier because rates are often set-up in a cheap pay-as-you-go fashion, but Harding Park doesn't offer the same forgiveness as most other munis.

The fairways have been reduced by nearly 60% of their standard width, and the rough is currently positioned to be vicious for anyone that can't find the short grass off the tee. Fairways border next to sand traps and quick-turning doglegs can direct a perfect shot into trouble.

Unlike the usual PGA Championships that reward a bomb-and-gouge nature, Harding Park measures on the shorter side at 7,251 yards. However, being near sea-level will diminish traveling distance for all golfers, and the aforementioned turns and quirks in the layout will substantially lengthen the property. Yes, players like Bryson DeChambeau will be able to cut off the corners, but the thick rough should create a penal experience if they come up short or long. California's giant Cypress trees will add an additional enclosure to the facility that will wreak havoc, but with all that being said, the USGA has suggested that they aren't trying to turn this into a bloodbath for the golfers, meaning we should get a challenging, but fair, test in the year's first major.

 

 

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Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Harding Park Tour Average
Driving Distance 284 283
Driving Accuracy 48% 61%
GIR Percentage 60% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 57% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.59% 0.54

In Vegas, as of Monday, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas lead the way at 10/1 and are followed by Rory McIlroy and John Rahm at 14/1, Bryson DeChambeau at 16/1 and Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele at 20/1.

 

Key Stats

  • OTT+APP 25%
  • Par-Four Efficiency 400-500 yards + Bogey Avoidance 20%
  • Total Driving 20%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
  • Sand Save Percentage 10%
  • ATG+Three-Putt Avoidance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Justin Thomas ($11,300)

After an impressive victory at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational, Justin Thomas enters the years first major as the DraftKings favorite at $11,300. If we are looking at how Thomas has responded after hoisting the title in his prior event, he has posted seven top-12 showings, as well as back-to-back wins during the 2017 Tournament of Champions and Sony Open. Thomas is the deserving favorite and will look to bring the momentum with him to San Francisco.

Brooks Koepka ($11,100)

I tend to go contrarian in these situations where past tournament history or results are overly dictating the price of a golfer, and I will most likely find myself down that aisle again when it comes to Brooks Koepka. The American hasn't finished outside 15th place at the PGA Championship since 2014, but we continue to have red flags pop up left and right. Koepka's second-place showing last weekend at TPC Southwind - a venue where he has now produced four top-three appearances since 2015 - might not be the answer that we needed to see to feel comfortable in rostering the sixth-ranked player in the world.  I'm not saying the four-time major winner can't pull another rabbit out of his hat at Harding Park, but it is hard for me to justify paying $11,100 because of tournament history of all things.

Rory McIlroy ($10,700)

I tend to think most of what athletes say during interviews should be taken with a grain of salt, but there does seem to be some correlation between McIlroy's struggles and the lack of fans in attendance. The Irishman keeps placing the blame on a reduction of concentration, so does that mean the PGA Championship gets his undivided attention? Or should we expect the same erratic mindset as the past few tournaments? I won't be excluding McIlroy from my player list because of his immense upside, but there is undoubtedly some concern present.

Jon Rahm ($10,500)

I've noticed that Jon Rahm does his best work at courses that require distance but aren't your typical bomb-and-gouge affairs. The Spaniard's ability to produce a combination of accuracy and length equals a deadly blend to possess, and Harding Park seems to play right into his hands by mixing the two factors together. Statistically, Rahm is ready to take the next step with his game during grand slams, but I'd be lying if I could guarantee the same about his mental capacity to avoid blowing up in spots. The 25-year-old might walk out of San Francisco with his first major title, but there is also a chance for his attitude to get the best of him.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,300)

For all the success Bryson DeChambeau has had early in his career, it might be surprising that he has only cracked the top-20 of a grand slam event once and never has finished better than 33rd place at the PGA Championship. In fairness, we aren't dealing with a robust sample size to conclude much from those numbers, but it does show that DeChambeau does need to start making a move if he wants to avoid any labels that could come his way. The American isn't the same player as he was in years past after rebuilding his body to crush the tour, and I believe we see him post his first top-10 of his career this weekend.

Xander Schauffele ($10,000)

I like Xander Schauffele and have outright tickets on both he and Bryson DeChambeau from earlier in the year, but I think we need to take a deep breath and evaluate why Schauffele is currently projected to garner nearly 10 percent more ownership than DeChambeau at just $300 less on DraftKings. None of this is meant to be a deterrent from using him, as I believe he will provide a top-20 performance, but it is just meant to identify that Schauffele is not the only capable player in this range. Whether you want to spend up for McIlroy, Rahm or DeChambeau or down to Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay or even Tiger Woods, there are other options that make sense. Use Schauffele; just don't forget about everyone else.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Webb Simpson ($9,700)

It is dangerous to make too many connections when it comes Webb Simpson's 2012 Olympic Club victory during the U.S. Open in San Francisco and this week's test at Harding Park because the tracks have some pronounced differences, but it is hard to ignore the main factor of it being in the same location and having the same course designers of Sam Whiting and Willie Watson. We should be expecting a hybrid track that borders on both PGA Championship and U.S. Open design, which makes Simpson someone worth considering in all game types. My one concern when it comes to Simpson actually having a chance to win the title would be that Paul Tesori won't be on his bag after suffering from herniated discs and hip pain. That is a big blow for the American if he has a chance down the stretch, but there is still a lot to like for the week.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)

Patrick Cantlay quietly put together rounds of 65 and 67, respectively, at the WGC-St. Jude on Saturday and Sunday. We didn't hear much about it because of his horrendous five-over par start over the opening two days, but it has moved Cantlay into a range that is worth discussing. For comparison sake, Xander Schauffele and Cantlay are extremely similar golfers, and it does feel like a nice spot to take the rebate that is being offered. Both are quality plays, but Cantlay does have better value at this number.

Tiger Woods ($9,200)

I think you could argue that Tiger Woods is marginally overpriced at $9,200 on DraftKings, but I don't have a massive issue with the number if it means fewer DFS participants will play the 82-time PGA Tour winner. Woods has a storied past at Harding Park with a victory at the venue in 2005 and a 5-0 record during the Presidents Cup in 2009, and it would be naive to discount Tiger for the week. Sure, it would have been nice to have some substance to point to of quality form leading into the event, but with great form comes great ownership popularity.

Dustin Johnson ($9,000)

I am going to let overall usage rates lead me to what to do with Dustin Johnson. If the big-hitting American is expected to accumulate 15-plus percent, I don't see the point in overexposing myself to the volatility that Johnson brings to the table. However, there is no arguing that a low-owned DJ provides win equity that is hard to find in a field of this quality.

Daniel Berger ($8,800)

Daniel Berger's run on Sunday at TPC Southwind is going to have ramifications from an ownership percentage this weekend. I was hoping to have Berger slide into the PGA Championship off of a respectable, yet somewhat subsided result in Memphis, but his final round surge into a share of second place is going to make the American one of the most popular plays on the board. Somewhere around $8,600 and $8,800 seemed like a fair valuation when I was projecting Berger's price tag, so it is not as if we are being given a ton of value for what his going rate is in San Francisco, but I'm not going to sit here and dissuade anyone off of Berger either. The PGA Championship typically is a tournament that becomes a breakthrough for a first-time major winner, and Berger has the game to compete for the title.

Jason Day ($8,400)

There is no such thing as safety with Jason Day, but things have turned around for the Aussie over his last three tournaments. Day has finished no worse than seventh place during his stellar run and has a similar PGA Championship record at his disposal over the past five years. The winner of the 2015 PGA Championship has not finished outside of 23rd place since his victory at Whistling Straits and should find Harding Park to suit his long-iron style that has been making a resurgence recently.

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000)

Maybe Tyrrell Hatton's implosion in Memphis wasn't such a surprise, after all. The Englishman had been riding a hot putter throughout his dominant stretch of golf, and the wheels torpedoed off once the first thing went wrong on Thursday. It is at least a built-in excuse we can make for Hatton over a one-week sample size, but should we be concerned moving forward? There is always going to be some trepidation when a top-notch player catapults himself to the bottom of a leaderboard the week before a major, but Hatton's overall ability to score and avoid bogey makes him one of just six players in my model that ranks inside the top-10 for each statistic.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Adam Scott ($7,800)

A lack of golf in the public eye has taken Adam Scott from a potential $9,000 golfer to his current price of $7,800.For reference sake, Scott's victory at the Genesis Invitational in February came after a two-month hiatus from his win at the Australian Open, and I don't view it as a negative that he headed straight to Harding Park to warm up for the week over competing in the WGC. There are definite concerns on the table here, but Scott has finished inside the top-20 in three of his previous four PGA Championships.

Jordan Spieth ($7,700)

I don't recommend Jordan Spieth often, but we do need to discuss him for Harding Park. Spieth has gained strokes with his ball-striking in four of his six events since the restart, and while there are still big numbers to be had when you miss the fairway, the removal of water does negate some of the blow-up potential that comes into play. Spieth's short game and putter are always there to help, and I don't think it will take a Herculean effort off the tee to outproduce his price tag. It also doesn't hurt that you get him at a highly reduced ownership total.

Abraham Ancer ($7,700)

If Harding Park turns into a contest of hitting fairways and connecting on greens in regulation, look no further than Abraham Ancer. Ancer's career seemed to turn around during his impressive Presidents Cup display against the United States in late 2019, and he has carried the momentum with him in 2020 - posting two second-place showings and an additional six top-14 results in his previous 13 worldwide events.

Billy Horschel ($7,400)

I went back and checked because I figured this might be the answer, but in two-and-half years of writing for RotoBaller, I have never recommended Billy Horschel in any fashion. Horschel is not a golfer that fits the mold of what I am looking for on most weeks, but there is always a first time for everything. Horschel enters the week having provided three straight top-25 results, and he has added three top-50s in his previous three PGA Championships. Iron play usually is his undoing, but his game is set up nicely for the first major test of the year.

Chez Reavie ($7,400)

Chez Reavie's mixture of tournament history and current form will make him a popular choice in San Francisco, but it is easy to understand why. According to my model, Reavie ranks 33rd from a statistical perspective, seventh in the past five years at the PGA Championship and fourth over the last five weeks of play. It isn't going to come without popularity, but Reavie is a threat for another top-25 result at this event.

Bubba Watson ($7,400)

When asked during the 2015 WGC-Match Play how Bubba Watson felt about Harding Park, he provided an answer about how the venue suited his ball flight and eye. We have harped on this point countless times about how Watson likes certain tracks, and he brings with him a game that is trending in the right direction. The lefty led the WGC-St. Jude Invitational in strokes gained off the tee and gained an astronomical three strokes putting on Sunday - the first bit of life he has shown with his flat stick in ages.

Henrik Stenson ($7,300)

Henrik Stenson didn't light the world on fire during his first time teeing it up since the restart,  but his 35th place showing in Memphis was enough to pique my curiosity. Stenson presents value as a golfer that might be able to churn out a top-20 result, which is enough to bolster any lineup at his $7,300 price tag.

Erik Van Rooyen ($7,100)

Erik Van Rooyen has transformed into the Jekyll and Hyde of the PGA Tour. That isn't quite ideal from a cash-game or head-to-head perspective, but it does provide a unique opportunity to grab one of the 50 best golfers in the world at a reduced ownership percentage. Van Rooyen has gone 20th, missed cut, 22nd, missed cut, 21st, missed cut, missed cut, and third over his prior eight events, but his top-five showing at the WGC-Mexico should emphasize that there is an inherent possibility for high-end success.

Kevin Na ($7,000)

Maybe it is because I don't incorporate much putting into my research, but Kevin Na always tends to exceed my projections for him. Na does his best work on par-fours between 400-500 yards, a distance that will be in play often for the week, and the removal of two of the par-fives should enhance his ability to keep pace with the rest of the field.

Corey Conners ($7,000)

Make it five top-40 results for Corey Conners in his last six events after finishing 30th at the WGC-St. Jude. Conners is an elite ball-striker that is equally as good off the tee as he is with his irons, but the expectation of what to expect doesn't come without some trepidation. The Canadian is better with short irons than he is with anything outside of 175 yards, and his putting and short-game always have a chance to rear their ugly head. Consider Conners worth a shot in GPP contests, but it doesn't come without risk.

Brendan Steele ($6,900)

Selecting Brendan Steele is equivalent to closing your eyes and praying for the best. When he is good, he is a ball-striking savant that hits a ton of greens in regulation, and when he is bad, well... things turn sour quickly. Steele has missed his previous three PGA Championship cuts but does have two top-19 showings in his other three attempts.

Emiliano Grillo ($6,800)

Options like Brendan Steele and Emiliano Grillo are definitely not considered necessities when you have soft pricing throughout, but Grillo has found something with his game over the last few weeks. A ninth-place at the Barracuda mixed with his third place at the 3M are the two best rounds we have gotten out of him with his putter in months, and it appears as if the Argentinian is peaking at the right time.

Lucas Glover ($6,700)

Ranked fourth in my model in total driving and 22nd in strokes gained off the tee + approach, Lucas Glover disappointed a lot of his backers during the 3M Open en route to a missed cut. That performance should keep ownership condensed around five percent or less, and while I don't think Glover wins the tournament, but there might be more safety here for a made cut than many of the names you are dealing with in the $6,000 range.

Harold Varner III ($6,600)

While Harding Park doesn't have the same green makeup as Riviera Country Club, there are some similarities when it comes to ball flight needed. Harold Varner III held the lead at Riveria for most of the event before stumbling on Sunday, and if the two tracks do happen to mirror each other at all, I believe there is a chance Varner finds himself hovering around the leaderboard into the weekend.

Russell Henley ($6,600)

Russell Henley has been elite with his irons since the Genesis Invitational, gaining 28 strokes in that area in six events. That total ranks him first compared to the field over his previous 24 rounds and has helped him post a top-five ranking in strokes gained tee to green during the same duration of time.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is incredible how razor-thin the margins can be on the PGA Tour. Once labeled as the top-ranked amateur in the world in 2008, the road has not always been smooth sailing for Michael Thompson. After coming second at the 2012 U.S. Open and winning the 2013 Honda Classic, the now 35-year-old has struggled to find much success on tour for over seven years, which includes missing half of his 12 starts in 2020.

However, a clutch performance can change fortunes in a matter of seconds, and Thompson's resounding victory in Minnesota will provide job security for the next two seasons. The two-year exemption that the triumph grants is life-changing, but the perks won't stop there. With the win, the 99th-ranked player has qualified for the three remaining majors this season, as well as this week's WGC Championship. After the event, Thompson's emotions were raw and pure, and it should partially explain what this means for his career going forward. We become so accustomed to the best players in the world winning that we sometimes fail to recognize what this can mean to someone fighting for their job, and it is was a refreshing sight to behold.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Southwind

7,244 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

There are a few course history metrics that we need to discuss before getting started into our research. It is important to remember that TPC Southwind has spent most of its time on the PGA Tour as a lower-tiered venue - only making the jump up to the WGC last season. I still believe it is valuable to look at results from all years, but 2019 will be the best corollary you will find because of the quality of the field and the change from Bent to Bermuda grass.

In general, the venue is much larger than it may appear on paper. The par-fours are lengthy and feature seven that stretch over 450 yards and the 76 bunkers and 11 water hazards add to the potential hiccups along the way. Unlike some weeks where the water is just there for show, TPC Southwind punishes errant shots. More balls find the lake here than any other course on tour, and despite some relatively decent scores over the years, the venue consistently plays as one of the 15 toughest on tour.

Seven of the last eight winners have led the field in strokes gained tee to green for the week, so we will be attempting to pinpoint players who excel in that area. Add in strokes gained approach, ball striking, proximity from 150-200 yards, opportunities gained and par-four scoring, and I believe we have a pretty good blueprint for how to attack the event.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat TPC Southwind Tour Average
Driving Distance 286 283
Driving Accuracy 54% 61%
GIR Percentage 59% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 59% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.44 0.54

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau at 12/1 and Patrick Cantlay at 18/1. Your defending champion, Brooks Koepka, enters the week at 33/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green 25%
  • Proximity 150-200 Yards 15%
  • Ball Striking 15%
  • Par-Four Average 15%
  • Strokes Gained Approach 10%
  • Total Driving 10%
  • GIR 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Jon Rahm ($11,400)

I know Jon Rahm is the new number one player in the world, but it is still difficult to justify him as the best golfer. DraftKings has taken the stance that the Spaniard is deserving of his ranking by making him the most expensive player on the board at $11,400, but is the price worth the risk? In a nutshell, my answer is yes. Rahm brings a level of form, course history and statistical prowess to the event that very few can match, and his overall quality of skills should make him a threat to take home the title. We could get nitpicky and say he should be the second or third choice, but it's not worth discussing.

Rory McIlroy ($11,200)

Rory McIlroy has been a bit of an enigma since the restart. No finishes inside the top-10 have been mixed in with three of his four starts producing a result outside the top-30, which has left the Irishman perplexed and without his number-one ranking. I keep waiting for McIlroy to turn things back around here shortly and will be overweight once again, but things need to begin clicking here quickly for the 31-year-old.

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)

The poor results for Bryson DeChambeau at TPC Southwind should be taken with a grain of salt for a few reasons. For starters, his game doesn't quite resemble what it did last season during his 48th place finish at the venue, and perhaps above all else, the course is now vastly different from his failed ventures here in 2015 and 2017. I'd be shocked if we don't see the American post his best finish here of his career, although that isn't saying much when you consider that he only needs to beat 33 players this weekend to surpass his career-high result. There is some contrarian appeal in GPP events because of DeChambeau's immense upside, but I'll be rather evenly weighted with my exposure compared to his expected ownership.

Justin Thomas ($10,700)

The cat is out of the bag when it comes to Justin Thomas and his success during no-cut events. Thomas' immaculate birdie making skills shouldn't be ignored since he is guaranteed four days worth of golf, and his current form is encouraging after posting four top-18 finishes in his previous five events. Thomas is going to be one of the most popular players on the slate, but it is easy to understand why.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,100)

It feels likely that Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau will end up being the two forgotten about commodities in this range. Cantlay's Sunday implosion during the Memorial hurt a lot of DFS owners, and his perceived win equity tends to be lower than most of his counterparts in this territory. For me, Cantlay is someone worth considering because of his overall consistency, and it doesn't hurt that he seems to be properly priced at his $10,100 total.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Webb Simpson ($9,900)

I like this new erratic version of Webb Simpson from a game-theory standpoint. It seems as if Simpson is either posting a top-10 result or missing the cut during every start in 2020, and there should be ways we can take advantage of this moving forward. Unfortunately, with most gamers excited to roster the American at TPC Southwind, this might be a week where he is better served as an outright wager than a DFS play.

Xander Schauffele ($9,800)

It doesn't take much for me to buy into the Xander Schauffele hype for a tournament. His recent form of three consecutive top-20 results will look good on paper, but it is worth noting that most of those finishes have resulted in mad dashes up the leaderboard on the weekend. There's a reason why Schauffele has done so well in no-cut events in the past, and the hope is that he frees himself up mentally again on Thursday and Friday.

Daniel Berger ($9,600)

Back-to-back wins at TPC Southwind in 2016 and 2017 will have the majority of DFS players clamoring at the idea of rostering Daniel Berger during the WGC, but I'm going to be running the other way. With the tournament becoming a World Golf Championship, the course was redone last season, meaning that Berger has never played on this newer version. That doesn't mean he can't find success here because of changes to the greens, etc. However, what it does suggest is that all of his prior success is being baked into his price tag. Add to that the fact that Berger won his titles against inferior opponents, and I have a challenging time buying into the narrative that $9,600 is a proper going rate.

Viktor Hovland ($9,400)

Two things have been a pre-requisite at each version of TPC Southwind - tee to green prowess and mid-to-long iron proximity. Viktor Hovland brings the best of both worlds with him to the course in 2020 and is ranked first in proximity between 150-200 yards, as well as first in strokes gained tee to green over his past 24 rounds.

Dustin Johnson($9,300), Brooks Koepka ($9,200)

I'll lump the 'Bash Brothers' together for this breakdown since they fit under the same criteria. Each enters the week with injury concerns that need to be taken seriously, however, the chance for withdrawal does feel significantly decreased with the PGA Championship on tap in a week. I'm not in love with either from a statistical standpoint, but it would be naive to say that they can't turn the switch back on in a flash. There's some GPP appeal that needs to be taken into account, although I'd be cautious with how much exposure I push their way.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,900)

After burning the industry at the Memorial, Hideki Matsuyama gets a fantastic bounce-back opportunity at this week's WGC. I realize this narrative around Matsuyama not being able to win has become a significant issue in most people's minds, but for as much as we love to talk about Justin Thomas or Xander Schauffele finding success at no-cut events, why do we fail to mention the Japanese sensation? The five-time PGA Tour winner has won two of his titles at WGCs and has a victory at the Hero World Challenge that doesn't get accredited to him as an official victory. Half of his PGA wins have come without a cut, and Matsuyama will get a chance to make up for his past failures.

Abraham Ancer ($8,400)

Abraham Ancer has taken significant steps this year with his game. The Presidents Cup has given him an added level of confidence that has resulted in two second-place showings in his last nine tournaments, and the maiden victory looks like it could be just around the corner. Ancer's ball striking and long irons could make that breakthrough a possibility in Memphis, and I will be taking advantage of his favorable 21st place pricing on DraftKings.

Sergio Garcia ($8,000)

It becomes a broken record at a certain point when discussing players in this fashion, but Sergio Garcia has been better than his results have indicated. Garcia has gained 27.8 strokes tee to green in his last three events but only has one top-30 finish to show for it. I'd anticipate we see him keep his momentum rolling in Memphis and believe $8,000 is a very respectable total for how his game is producing.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Paul Casey ($7,800)

It hasn't been an ideal recent stretch for Paul Casey, who has missed his past two cuts on tour. There are reasons to be concerned, but I am willing to place last week's debacle on his paltry 6.1 shots lost with his putter. Casey has been his typical ball-striking self, and I am eager to take the rebate offered from DFS sites.

Sungjae Im ($7,500)

Will the one-week break help Sungjae Im? Only time will tell, but the move back to Bermuda greens should boost Im as he attempts to relocate his game. Unlike Casey, where most of his suffering has been done on the greens, the 22-year-old has been faulty in all aspects, failing to gain strokes with his iron in his past five events. Im's ownership percentage will dictate if I am prepared to take the risk, but some indicators are pointing to him providing a respectable result at a discounted price.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,400)

You aren't going to find many players on tour with better approach play than Joaquin Niemann. Unfortunately, his Achilles heel continues to be his putter, which has lost over five strokes in two of his past three contests. I do worry slightly that Niemann's total driving is not where it needs to be to compete at a quality test like TPC Southwind, but if his drives are finding the fairway, watch out for his irons.

Corey Conners ($7,300)

Corey Conners immediately becomes one of the first names that comes to mind whenever the words total driving, ball-striking, and GIR are used to describe a course. The Canadian is ranked inside the top-10 compared to the field in all of those categories and ranks inside the top-15 in approach play and strokes gained tee to green.

Scottie Scheffler ($7,300)

Scottie Scheffler showed his first signs of life during the restart at the Memorial, finishing inside the top-25. Scheffler's potential volatility will be on display again in Memphis, but his birdie-making acumen mixed with his stellar ball-striking numbers should make him a possible pivot option in the low $7,000 range.

Bubba Watson ($7,100)

It has felt like for the past few weeks that Bubba Watson is on the edge of finding something with his game, but poor putting round after poor putting round has platooned his production into four missed cuts and no top-30 finishes over his last six tries. The same risk remains on the table at TPC Southwind, but a ninth-place result in 2019 might be enough to turn Watson around on the greens at a venue where he did gain 1.5 strokes with his flat stick last year.

Kevin Streelman ($6,900)

Kevin Streelman should check a lot of the boxes if you are looking for a cheap cash-game play. Ranked inside the top-35 compared to the field in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained approach, par-four average, total driving, GIR, ball striking and overall birdie percentage, the American brings a unique blend of consistency that might go overlooked because of his lack of firepower.

Chez Reavie ($6,700)

Chez Reavie's four top-27s at TPC Southwind since 2015 will get overblown throughout the industry, but while only 2019 (T27) should be viewed as a corollary for what to expect this season, Reavie's price tag is just too low at $6,700. The 42nd-ranked player in the world is a quality player tee to green, and his cash-game appeal is there for anyone looking to grab a bargain bin price that might return a top-30 result.

Shane Lowry ($6,600)

Shane Lowry hasn't given many reasons to be encouraged about his prospects following three missed cuts and no top-35 results since the restart, but the Irishman remains a GPP stalwart that can strike on a dime. His victory at the Open Championship last season indicates that to be true, making his $6,600 outlook short when we consider his upside.

Cameron Champ ($6,200)

If gaining strokes tee to green will be necessary for Memphis, why not look for the guy who hits the ball further than anyone not named Bryson DeChambeau. As is the case with anyone priced in this area, Champ has serious concerns, especially when it comes to iron play, but this sort of firepower isn't easy to find priced at $6,200.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): 3M Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers! After Jon Rahm's dazzling display of golf at Muirfield Village, we have a new number one in the world. Rahm's final score of nine-under par might have given him a three-shot victory, but it doesn't tell the complete story of just how dominating his performance was over four days. The Spaniard had a runaway lead for most of Saturday and Sunday, but it didn't come without a little distress down the stretch. A two-shot penalty mixed with some erratic play did close the gap for Ryan Palmer to have an outside chance during the final few holes, but we never quite got ourselves into a position where the tournament felt like it was up for grabs.

The next year on tour will be telling with seven majors currently slotted to be played, but Rahm's ascension to the top of the rankings does place him in a spot of power to take the next step with his game. We will have a much clearer picture one year from now when it comes to who has officially broken through during the grand slams, but Rahm's chances shouldn't be taken lightly.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - 3M Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

3M Open - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Twin Cities

7,481 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass 

Designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman in 2000, the venue has seen a few changes in recent years. The course was extended by over 300 yards over its typical Champions Tour layout to get prepared for last seasons PGA event, and the venue plays like a long Par-71 that will reward added distance.

While the winning score will most likely creep into the 20-under par range, the property does have a few defenses at its disposal. Fourteen of the 18 holes will feature water, and I'd expect the tour to utilize some of those barriers on the shorter par-fours that can be driveable on the right day. The water isn't enough to divert golfers or cause fear, but missing in the correct spots will come into play like any given week.

Tournaments such as the 3M are difficult to handicap because they sometimes can turn into putting contests, but the leaderboard last season seemed fair when assessing strokes gained as a whole. Off the tee, approach and total ball-striking carved out the majority of success that the top-20 players found, and strokes gained around the green almost played non-existent for the week. Some level of putting will always matter to an extent since we need to suss out who is actually scoring, but I'd be more focused on golfers who can create opportunities with their irons and let the chips fall from there.

 
 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Muirfield Village Tour Average
Driving Distance 290 283
Driving Accuracy 66% 61%
GIR Percentage 74% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 55% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.39 0.54

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Brooks Koepka at 12/1, Tony Finau at 14/1, Tommy Fleetwood at 16/1 and Paul Casey at 25/1. Your defending champion, Matthew Wolff, comes in just outside that range at 28/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Ball Striking 15%
  • Strokes Gained Approach 15%
  • Par-Five BoB Percentage 15%
  • Driving Distance 15%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
  • Bob+Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee 12.5%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

It was a brutal display from Dustin Johnson at Muirfield Village - one that resulted in a second-to-last place showing for those that got in a full 36 holes. We discussed how last week's venue could provide the big-hitting American with some issues if he remained inconsistent with his irons, and Johnson fell right into that trap by losing 4.1 shots with his approach game. This week, TPC Twin Cities should provide him a course that will negate his around the green woes, and his distance off the tee will come heavily into play if he can avoid the copious amount of water surrounding the property. Johnson is the number one ranked player on my model for the event and should be in-store for a bounce-back effort.

Brooks Koepka ($11,200)

Brooks Koepka said on Saturday at the Memorial that, "nothing is improved" when asked about his knee that required surgery last year. That comment will have me out on the four-time major winner, even if his ownership percentage could rival five percent or less on the week. There are spots to be contrarian, but I am going to take Koepka at his word that something remains a problem. Frankly, $11,200 is too high of a price regardless of the situation, but the uncertainty will further dampen his outlook.

Tony Finau ($10,900)

TPC Twin Cities is an excellent setup for Tony Finau, but it doesn't mean I don't have my concerns. Is the price fair given the strength of the field? Sure. But I'm never going to feel comfortable rostering Finau at nearly $11,000 when he has continuously failed to get himself into the winner's circle. Add that to the fact that Finau is going to be one of your most popular players for the week at nearly 20 percent ownership, and I am not sure you get a fair payback on your investment. Finau is in play for a top-10 or 20 finish, but you will need more than that at this price point.

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500)

We run into a similar issue with Tommy Fleetwood as we do Tony Finau, but the situation isn't quite as egregious for a few reasons. For starters, Fleetwood's $400 rebate in price does mean something at the end of the day, and I do believe we are looking at better win equity for the Englishman to get himself over the hump. This is an ideal venue for Fleetwood to possibly earn his first victory, and I don't have an issue adding him to my player pool.

Paul Casey ($10,100)

When we talk ball-strikers, Paul Casey will always be at or near the top of the list. His late blowup at Muirfield Village has subsided his price tag, but it doesn't appear to have stunted his ownership projection. The Englishman is going to be one of the most popular golfers on the board this week, but his safety level does make him worth a second look in all formats.

 

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Bubba Watson ($9,900)

Bubba Watson quietly put together a brilliant display of golf at Muirfield Village. While his 32nd place result doesn't tell the whole story, Watson gained an astronomical 7.8 shots with his irons over the four days and continued his onslaught with his driver - gaining 2.9 strokes. That is now six of his last eight tournaments where the American has gained a minimum of 2.4 shots with his driver, but the results have remained stunted by his poor putter that has been negative for five straight starts. This week's venue doesn't require perfect putting to find success, which makes him a dangerous threat to take home the title if he can just be halfway decent on the greens.

Lucas Glover ($9,400)

I mentioned this last week, and the point remains the same: I'd be cautious in overexposing myself to Lucas Glover when making GPP builds. The stats add up, the price tag makes sense, but it is essential to remember that Lucas Glover doesn't win. In fact, Glover fails to provide many finishes inside of the top-10 either. If I had my choice, I would prefer using him in cash games for safety, but we even have some issues there with his lack of upside at $9,400. I don't want to bury Glover completely because he is second on my model, but we might be looking at his upside being right around his price point.

Doc Redman ($8,700)

We probably are getting marginal mispricing on Doc Redman in theory at $8,600. Part of that presumably stems from his missed cut at this venue last season, but it also will include last week's failed venture at Muirfield Village. Any model that you come across will love the American this week if we are only looking at this from a statistical-based perspective, but Redman's lack of par-five scoring does cause some concerns if he goes south in other areas. With all that being said, the price is reduced enough to consider the 22-year-old, and the upside is there to fly past his noted value.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,900)

I'm not so sure why we are receiving such a cheap price on Jhonattan Vegas. The 35-year-old had made his previous five weekends before his missed cut at the Workday Charity Open, which includes three successful outings since the restart. Vegas is a bomber off the tee who excels in ball striking and par-five scoring, and I would have had him priced in the same range as Russell Henley. I'll gladly take the $1,000-plus discount and believe Vegas can lead your GPP rosters to the promised land at under 10 percent.

Sepp Straka ($7,900)

Sepp Straka's volatility might make you want to reconsider using him as a cash-game pillar, but his GPP upside should not be ignored. The betting market has him priced as the 13th choice overall - eight spots better than his 21st place ranking on DraftKings. Somewhere in the middle of those two numbers would most likely be more proper, but it does show Straka is underpriced for DFS purposes.

Will Gordon ($7,700)

There is a lot to like about Will Gordon. Ranked inside the top-20 in strokes gained off the tee and driving distance, the American begins to look like extreme value when we pinpoint his first-place ranking compared to the field in overall birdie or better percentage, GIR percentage and proximity over 175 yards. Gordon showed flashes of his upside with his third-place finish at the Travelers Championship and should find TPC Twin Cities to suit his eye.

Sam Ryder ($7,300)

There is no doubt that Sam Ryder is receiving an ownership boost from his recent seventh-place result at the Workday Charity Open, but there is a relatively decent statistical consistency across the board for the American. Ryder ranks inside the top-60 in every stat I am attaching a weight to for this week's event, and while he isn't necessarily excelling in any one facet, all the positives should add more flexibility for him to make the weekend.

Aaron Wise ($7,100)

It has been a rough stretch for Aaron Wise, who has missed nine of his previous 12 cuts after posting a third-place finish at the Bermuda Championship in November of 2019. Wise is the sort of player who tends to find his best form at venues that allow him to use his expertise off the tee, and the comparatively open nature of TPC Twin Cities will provide him a chance to get back on track as a GPP-only play.

Adam Schenk ($6,900)

Adam Schenk isn't going to generate much interest from most, but his back-to-back top-39 finishes should have you take a second look. Schenk is a quality ball-striker that shines with his long irons, and his ability for both distance and accuracy off the tee will make him a threat at a soft venue. There is a reason why Schenk's odds to win the tournament are 16 spots higher than his overall DK price.

Josh Teater ($6,400), Shawn Stefani ($6,300)

Neither man is bringing a ton of form into Minnesota, but each player is possessing a higher made cut frequency than his pricing would indicate. Consider both to be volatile options in GPP contests, but Stefani's 15th place showing here last season does show that he can find success at the venue.

Ryan Brehm ($6,100)

The biggest disparity play from my model to DraftKings pricing has been crushing it in the last few weeks, and Ryan Brehm will look to keep the run going in Minnesota. We haven't seen much of Brehm over the past 10 weeks of actual play, but the 372nd ranked player in the world shouldn't be negatively impacted for his consecutive rounds of one-under par at the Rocket Mortgage that resulted in a missed cut. If we exclude that tournament from the record book, Brehm has made eight of his previous nine cuts on the PGA Tour. The 34-year-old finds the majority of his issues around the green and with his putter, and the hope is that his driving ability will shine through at an open venue.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Memorial

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Down three strokes with just three holes to play, Collin Morikawa pulled off a magnificent come-from-behind victory over Justin Thomas to capture his second career title. I always find it amazing how fortunes and narratives can change with a simple make or miss, and Morikawa's near blunder on the 18th hole against Thomas could have presented us an entirely different story if he would have mimicked his disastrous finish against Daniel Berger at the Charles Schwab Challenge just a few weeks ago. Instead, we are left with a career-defining result for the 23-year-old, who now only not has more victories on tour than missed cuts (2 to 1), but showed guile and guts during the first playoff hole to match Thomas' 50-foot birdie putt with a 24-footer of his own to extend the match.

While the golf was exceptional and littered with storylines across the board, the PGA Tour fell short in executing what transpired. The telecast was available live online, but the main television coverage hours later showed a tape-delayed broadcast. It was a big missed opportunity that the PGA Tour was handed on a silver platter of showcasing three of the elite young players in the game in one pairing, and it continues to be the bane of their existence from a viewer perspective.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Memorial

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Memorial - PGA DFS Overview

Muirfield Village

7,392 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass 

There is no doubt that Muirfield Village hosting an event for two weeks in a row will provide some of the same feel and nuances that we saw at the Workday Charity Open, but it is lazy reporting if we assume things will be run back in the same manner that we just saw ensue. If we are looking for similarities, Muirfield Village showed off its teeth as a ball-strikers course above all else, which is something that we should go back to in the second week of action, but the general feel and design could be substantially different.

The venue will play 60 yards shorter than it did just a week ago, but the tangible disparity should come down to the rough and texture of the greens. Last week, I noted how extra moisture would be added to the putting surface to allow two weeks of golf to take place at one location, but we are no longer in the danger zone of having to "protect" against a dried out surface. I expect we see the speed turned up a few notches, making putting a much more challenging proposition for the week.

On top of that, reports have stated that the rough will not be touched entering the Memorial. We heard rumors that things were mowed down marginally before the first event, but enhanced growth will emphasize finding the fairways, as well as heighten the skillset needed to find success around the greens. The bunkers are already tricky when out of position anywhere near the putting surface, and we should see a more complicated test throughout. The 13 water hazards and 73 bunkers will still loom as a considerable threat to the players, and par-five scoring will continue to be a necessity.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Muirfield Village Tour Average
Driving Distance 283 283
Driving Accuracy 68% 60%
GIR Percentage 62% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 53% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.52 0.54

In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Justin Thomas at 11/1, Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy at 14/1 and Dustin Johnson at 16/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Ball Striking 20%
  • Par-Five BoB + Prox 200+ Yards 20%
  • Par-Four Average + Bogey Avoidance 17.5%
  • Prox 150-200 Yards 15%
  • Strokes Gained Approach + Bent Putting 15%
  • Sand Save Percentage + ATG 12.5%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100)

A victory by Justin Thomas last weekend might have been enough to bump Bryson DeChambeau down the pecking order, but as things currently stand, the 'Mad Scientist' leads off the DraftKings board at a price tag of $11,100. A combination of DeChambeau's current form mixed with his victory at Muirfield Village in 2018 didn't hurt the notion of placing the big-hitter up top either, but is the price tag deserving? In a nutshell, yes. DeChambeau is the hottest player in the world, and the ascension over the likes of Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas might be enough for some to look the other way for the week. If that happens, a lower owned DeChambeau provides the opportunity for GPP success for those willing to pay the cost.

Justin Thomas ($10,900)

I'm a little hesitant about what to do with Justin Thomas at the Memorial. Course history at Muirfield Village has been erratic over the years with three-top eight showings and three missed cuts thrown into the mix during his past six attempts, and the heartbreaking loss to Collin Morikawa last weekend could be weighing on his psyche. Personally, I think his $10,900 price tag makes him marginally overpriced with all the red flags attached to him, but it doesn't mean he can't find success once again. I'll just be underweight compared to others.

Rory McIlroy ($10,700)

It was jarring to see Rory McIlroy as the third option in both the DraftKings and betting markets. We have become accustomed to the Irishman entering as the leadoff hitter for the past year on tour, but the recent slippage in current form to go along with the rise of Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas has added a change to the scenery, at least for one week. I can understand the argument for DeChambeau being near or above McIlroy with everything weighed into the equation, but I do have a difficult time understanding Thomas' surge above the top-ranked player in the world. I am going into the week with the mindset that McIlroy is still the man to beat, meaning we are getting a slight bargain as his current rate.

Dustin Johnson ($10,300)

Despite Dustin Johnson's victory at the Travelers Championship, two things have remained hit-and-miss for him recently. For starters, his proximity numbers are not what they have been in years past, which leads us to our next point of Johnson's travails around the green. The American ranks 72nd compared to the field in that area, and his sloppy irons could provide short-game trouble at a venue that will play more complicated than it did just a week ago.

Collin Morikawa ($10,000)

I am not going to sit here and act as if Collin Morikawa doesn't make logical sense as a selection to go back to after his victory at the venue just a few days ago, but there are some concerns that I would like to point out. I believe we are overpaying somewhat because of his recent win, and it is essential to note that the course should play substantially more challenging in areas that will hurt his game. Quicker greens will mean less of an ability to stick irons close to the pin, and his astronomical gains in putting a week ago will most likely come back down to earth on the quicker surface. Add in a spotty around the green game that could also rear its ugly head with the grown out rough, and there are reasons to be concerned. With all that being said, he is still top-10 in my model for a reason, but it doesn't mean he isn't overpriced.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)

It seems likely that Patrick Cantlay will be the highest owned player on the slate, but it is understandable with the general mispricing on the part of DraftKings. While some might view the discount as a positive, I would have preferred to pay up in salary and alleviate a percentage of the field that wouldn't have used a pricier version of him. Consider Cantlay to be perhaps the best cash-game play on the board, but it is up to you if his GPP appeal is worth the high ownership. In general, the answer does feel like a yes.

Webb Simpson ($9,600)

Webb Simpson's $9,600 price tag on DraftKings is exactly where I had him slotted for the week. Substandard curse history at Muirfield could be a concern for some, but his game is at a higher level than it has ever been in his career. Using past statistics and numbers won't tell the whole picture, and Simpson should be viewed as an adequately priced choice.

Viktor Hovland ($9,500)

If we are telling the whole picture, my model loves Viktor Hovland at the Memorial. However, I can't say I agree with what it is spitting out. Hovland got the benefit of a watered-down track last weekend at the Workday Charity Open, and his prowess with his irons could dwindle significantly on a surface that won't be as receptive for pin hunting. The youngster is ranked 114th compared to the field in strokes gained around the green, and the story doesn't get any better with a 114th place ranking inside the bunker. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 33rd-ranked player in the world disappoint with a missed cut this week, making him someone I will be avoiding in all formats.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400)

I think we can be too fickle as a community sometimes. I realize it was in a substantially weaker field, but a $10,000 Hideki Matsuyama just generated ownership totals of nearly 32 percent in cash-games and over 21% in GPP contests at the Workday Charity Open and may now struggle to eclipse 15% in either game type at the Memorial. I'm done projecting win equity when it comes to the 28-year-old because it is obviously lower than my model suggests, but the price is fair to take a shot in pretty much all game types. I prefer him as a cash-game play if we are getting technical, but I am okay with the notion of using him across the board.

Xander Schauffele ($9,200)

It was a quiet 14th place showing for Xander Schauffele at the Workday Charity Open, but it was enough to give the American his sixth top-25 result in his last seven events. Overall, the lack of excitement should provide us with another opportunity to acquire the 26-year-old at a price tag and ownership total less than expected, and I think the toughened venue should play into Schauffele's game-style.

Tiger Woods ($9,000)

You rarely will hear me say this sentiment, but Tiger Woods' price on DraftKings is exceptionally fair. I'd argue that he should be a couple of points higher in the outright market with the lack of golf he has played leading into the tournament, but $9,000 on DraftKings isn't unfair by any stretch of the imagination. I'd avoid Tiger in cash games until we see more and admittingly won't have a ton of exposure to him in GPP either, but I'm not going to take a massive stance against the possibility of someone deciding to use him.

Gary Woodland ($8,600)

Gary Woodland's performance over the weekend at Muirfield involved some smoke and mirrors. Over seven strokes gained putting propelled him up the leaderboard and into fifth place, and it may have taken away any appeal of using the American for DraftKings purposes. I'm going to keep a close eye on where his ownership projection goes leading into Thursday, but with the assumed traction he may catch within the industry, I might end up with substantially less exposure than I was anticipating having a week ago. Woodland can be a liability around the green and in the bunker, and we need to be careful if this turns into a runaway ownership train. Somewhere over 12.5% would be my tipping point of where I would want out.

Tony Finau ($8,300)

Between Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Abraham Ancer and Daniel Berger, this mid-to-low $8,000 range will have its fair share of popularity. If you are looking for a potential pivot option, I am leaning towards Tony Finau as being that choice. The 30-year-old hasn't quite looked like himself in recent weeks, but this is an opportunity of acquiring talent over everything else at the right price. Despite the poor results, Finau is still grading out as someone undervalued for the week, and the price tag that places him 20th overall in salary gives us a ton of room for upside.

 

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More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Joaquin Niemann ($7,900), Paul Casey ($7,900) & Sergio Garcia ($7,800)

The range of Joaquin Niemann, Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia will be one that is going to require making the right choice to find success on the week. All three have perks and flaws, and each will bring in their fair share of ownership. If you are going in with the mentality of pivoting to the golfer with the least interest, Garcia will probably be your man, but the margin of difference separating the three is not much across the board. For what it is worth, Casey is grading out the best for me statistically, while Garcia is providing the most steady numbers of the group.

Adam Hadwin ($7,400)

It was a disappointing 35th place showing for Adam Hadwin, who ended round one just one shot off the lead before imploding with performances of 73 and 76 over the next two days. Win equity is never quite there for the steady Canadian, but his $7,400 price tag gives a nice opportunity to grab him for a reduced rate. I prefer Hadwin in cash games as a safety play, but there is more upside than usual.

Shane Lowry ($7,200)

I have Shane Lowry underpriced in all markets, but it is his $7,200 total on DraftKings that has caught my eye the most. Lowry sputtered to a 39th place showing just a week ago, but I consider the venue to be a better set up for him in the second go-around. Ranked first in my model in sand save percentage and proximity with his irons, there is under the radar appeal for those that are looking for a GPP standout under $7,500.

Lucas Glover ($7,100)

We keep running into a lot of similar issues with the golfers in this territory. Poor around the green or bunker games make them liabilities when it comes to consistency, but the overall strength in numbers will be difficult to ignore. Lucas Glover has provided four straight top-23 finishes since the return of golf and has included four top-52 results at the venue since 2016. Upside is always an issue when discussing the American, but he is a solid cash-game play if you are in need of someone down the board.

Harold Varner III ($7,100)

Harold Varner III burned 32.4% of cash-game players at the Workday Charity Open en route to a missed cut effort. That performance will narrow how many decide to quickly get back onto Varner at the same course just a week later, but I don't think much has changed from week-to-week. The American is one of the best players in the field tee to green and is a reliable ball-striker to boot.

Erik Van Rooyen ($7,000)

More of a GPP play than anything else, Erik Van Rooyen imploded during his last event at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, firing a first-round 75 to the miss the cut. The South African was a trendy sleeper entering that tournament but now comes to Muirfield Village as a golfer who is projected to generate less than four percent ownership. There are still massive red flags to worry about when it comes to production, but you aren't going to need much of him to be extremely overweight to the field. I like taking players with upside, and Van Rooyen provides just that.

Matthew NeSmith ($6,200)

I always like pointing out what player has the most significant disparity difference between my model and their DraftKings price, and that distinction belongs to Matthew NeSmith at the Memorial. NeSmith's overall ranking of 41st overall separates him from his DK price ranking of 105th by 64 positions, and there are things to like about his style for the venue. The 187th-ranked player in the world ranks inside the top-25 compared to the field in strokes gained approach+Bentgrass putting, as well as overall bogey avoidance and ball striking. NeSmith's missed cut at the property last weekend will scare many users away from him in week two, but I am willing to ignore his Friday 79 as being nothing more than a fluky result.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Workday Charity Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Bryson DeChambeau captured his sixth career PGA Tour title at the Rocket Mortgage Classic - this time coming from three shots back on Sunday to eclipse overnight leader Matthew Wolff. DeChambeau had been trending towards this result over his previous six events, posting six finishes within the top-eight, and it was beginning to feel like just a matter of time before the big-hitting American would breakthrough with another victory on tour.

DeChambeau's 27.6% ownership total led the way by over seven percent over the next option on the board in last week's 'Millionaire Maker' contest, but we did see a few of the most popular selections falter before the cut. Patrick Reed (17.1%), Brandt Snedeker (16.7%) and Will Gordon (16.6%) all stumbled to get themselves into the weekend, although it is worth noting that five of the top six ownership players did finish inside the top-25.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

Workday Charity Open - PGA DFS Overview

Muirfield Village

7,456 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass 

We get a situation we are not used to encountering on the PGA Tour for the Workday Charity Open. The event will be held at Muirfield Village, not necessarily a reason for discussion in and of itself, but the circumstance becomes muddled when we consider that the following Memorial tournament will also be held at the same property.

The PGA Tour will attempt to make some subtle differences with how the track will play in back-to-back weeks, but you would have to assume a lot of the nuances will remain the same. The Workday Charity Open is projected to play about 60 yards longer than the Memorial and will feature slower greens, but the Nicklaus property will be lengthy, no matter how you want to shake it. Forced layups throughout will further emphasize the distance, but with some of the widest fairways on tour, players will still be able to bomb and gouge in spots. Thirteen water hazards and 73 bunkers are littered throughout the grounds, and the greenside sand traps are some of the deadliest on tour.

Muirfield Village consistently ranks inside the bottom-five of all PGA stops in scrambling percentage, and six par-fours range between 450-500 yards, with each of those holes playing over par. The four par-fives will be the best chances given for the golfers to make a move, and all are reachable for every player in the field. The last seven winners have won the tournament at 10-under par or better, so despite inserting potential hiccup spots throughout the way, the scoring isn't extraordinarily hard. We might want to dismiss the normally lightning-quick greens marginally since it does seem likely that they will need to provide extra moisture to the surface if they expect to keep the venue pristine for consecutive weeks, but I think the softened exterior could give an enhancement in approach numbers from 150 to 200 yards.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Muirfield Village Tour Average
Driving Distance 283 283
Driving Accuracy 68% 60%
GIR Percentage 62% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 53% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.52 0.54

In Vegas, as of Monday, Justin Thomas leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay at 14/1, Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama at 16/1 and Xander Schauffele at 18/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 20%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
  • Ball Striking 17.5%
  • Strokes Gained Approach + Bent Putting 15%
  • Proximity 150-200 Yards 15%
  • Sand Save 15%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Justin Thomas ($11,100)

It has been an erratic run for Justin Thomas when it comes to both his course history at Muirfield Village and his recent form. In Thomas' past five events on tour, he has provided three top-10s to go along with two missed cuts. His results in Ohio have mirrored the same route, producing two top-eight showings in 2017 and 2018 but missing the cut in his other three appearances since 2015. Thomas' irregular output and expensive price tag on DraftKings will have me fading him for cash-game lineups, but his upside for victory will always make him an appealing GPP choice. Consider him to be the deserving betting favorite.

Jon Rahm ($10,900)

With all the support Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama are going to experience in this 10k-plus range, Jon Rahm could provide a contrarian route for those looking to start their builds up top. Rahm has not been uberly sharp since the return of golf four events ago, but his ability to score from the par-four range of 450-500 yards is encouraging. Red flags are looming that Rahm could be marginally overpriced with all the question marks surrounding his current game, but I am okay with taking some GPP shots with the Spaniard.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,600)

It is not a stretch to say that Patrick Cantlay will be the most popular selection this weekend on DFS sites. His last victory came at Muirfield Village in 2019, he restarted his campaign with an 11th place showing at the Travlers and the American is within the top-30 compared to the field in every statistical category I will be using for the Workday Charity Open. That resume makes him the number one ranked player in my model, but I don't believe it is that cut-and-dry. It is worth noting that Cantlay's Travelers result was greatly enhanced by his astronomical total of 5.1 strokes gained on the greens, and it is always dangerous to go down the 20%-plus route for any golfer not named Rory McIlroy or Bryson DeChambeau. Cantlay is a favorite to post a highly respectable result, but we are going to need more than just that if we want to pay off his $10,600 total. His lofty ownership has me considering using him more as a cash-game play for safety, but it is a risky route to go down with everything pointing in his direction.

Brooks Koepka ($10,400)

It will be interesting to see where Brooks Koepka falls on the Workday Charity Open's ownership meter. His seventh-place showing at the Heritage should give him a boost for those who believe he is now fully into gear, but there will still be your usual sub-section that will refuse to play Koepka in anything that isn't a major. Personally, Muirfield Village is typically a step up in difficulty, and while I am not entirely out on the idea of him performing well, I'd like to see a little more before I jump back in at a price over $10,000.

Xander Schauffele ($10,200)

Will Xander Schauffele go overlooked after two sub-par finishes at the Heritage and Travelers? Does his ownership percentage become afflicted even further after not playing the Rocket Mortgage Challenge? I surely hope so on each account. Schauffele is a name to monitor as the week progresses, and there are reasons to speculate he could slip to around 10 percent if the steam catches up to Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Rose. The American is going to need to clean up his recent around the green woes if he wants to compete for a title, but I'd be extremely cautious in bypassing the 11th-ranked player in the world.

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,000)

I can't say I am surprised to see Hideki Matsuyama garnering nearly a 20% ownership projection. He attained 16% last weekend at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with no real form since the return, and now everyone gets a chance to acquire him at $200 cheaper after a top-25 in Detroit. Matsuyama is a steady performer who knows how to score DraftKings points, and even if I do consider the hype to be a little out of hand with his perceived lack of upside, the Japenese golfer typically finds a way to produce for his fantasy owners. He isn't for me in GPP builds since I want better win equity when discussing players over $10,000, but he is a steady floor play in cash games.

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Mid-Priced DFS Players

Justin Rose ($9,700)

Proper maturation growth in fantasy golf comes down to being able to decipher between what is good chalk, and what is bad chalk? That doesn't mean we always get the answer correct, but it does mean that we come to a conclusion that we stick behind. The fear of creating duplicate lineups only comes to fruition if we don't get creative around our most popular plays, and there will always be openings to insert under-the-radar options to diversify our total ownership exposure. With all that being said, Justin Rose is a difficult nut to crack at Muirfield Village. Course history and current form will point towards Rose being an elite choice for the week, but he does have numerous areas of concern from a statistical standpoint. The Englishman has a propensity to make mistakes, and those errors could be highlighted on the problematic par-four holes at the venue. It would be naive to suggest Rose isn't a threat to take home the title, but it will take the right sort of build around him to make it worth the gamble. If you can figure it out, I support the risk, but the 39-year-old is far from a sure thing.

Viktor Hovland ($9,500)

Viktor Hovland has failed to provide the blockbuster finish he has been looking for during the four tournaments back from Covid-19 shutting down the tour for three months, but you aren't going to find a player that has been more consistent across the board. Hovland has made all four cuts, securing four top-25 finishes and two consecutive showings of 12th and 11th, respectively. The youngsters ball-striking acumen and proximity numbers from 150-200 yards jump off the page, but there is a chance that Muirfield's dangerous greenside bunkers could provide peril for the 22-year-old. Hovland ranks just 124th compared to the field in sand save percentage and could find trouble if he is not careful.

Marc Leishman ($8,700)

I realize this article has been more factual than predictive so far this week, but DraftKings has done a relatively decent job with their pricing. It is much more challenging to find incongruities to the market when that happens, and there aren't a ton of players I am massively taking a stance against above $9,000. Outside of Rickie Fowler, every golfer above $8,900 ranks inside the top-15 of my model, presenting us a comparatively fair board by my math. However, one player that is showing to be an outlier is Marc Leishman. I understand the intrigue around the Aussie after posting four top-15 results at the property in the previous five years, but I believe his course history has been overly baked into his price tag. Leishman only has one top-40 finish within the last 10 weeks of playable golf, and we get a shaky picture around the 16th-ranked player in the world if his irons don't show up for action. I never want to be reliant on one particular aspect of someone's game clicking, and while Leishman surely could find success, it will have to come without me at his 16% projected ownership total.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,400), Gary Woodland ($8,300)

If we are going to eat chalk in this section, I feel more comfortable doing it with either Joaquin Niemann or Gary Woodland. Neither should be considered natural pivots away from Marc Leishman since we aren't necessarily changing to options that are supposed to generate less ownership, but I believe the upside from both should make them exponentially better GPP selections to take a risk on for the week. I am always looking for win equity above all else when making choices with my mid-to-high priced golfers, and where we will have a little more combustibility to worry about, the investment feels much more worth the risk.

 

Low-Priced DFS Players

Maverick McNealy ($7,500), Harold Varner III ($7,500)

It is hard to ignore Maverick McNealy and Harold Varner III when they continue to be listed as underpriced choices for the week. Many are coming to the same conclusion with both expected to draw ownership totals of over 10%, but the duo has combined to make 11 of their previous 13 cuts on tour. McNealy feels like the safer choice of the two because of his better skillset to score on par-fives, avoid bogeys and get himself out of the bunker, and I'd probably lean towards him being the higher upside play also. Regardless, though, both are threats for four rounds of golf, and that is always important when we enter this range.

Shane Lowry ($7,400)

It has been a rocky road for Shane Lowry since his Open Championship triumph, but we are starting to enter a level of absurdity with his pricing and lack of ownership. Muirfield Village's enhanced difficulty over what we have seen in recent weeks on tour should be a positive for the 25th-ranked player in the world, and his skillset of scrambling, bunker play and avoiding bogey should mean something at this course. It is not as if Lowry has broken the bank with his past results in Ohio or as of late, but I was encouraged by the signs of life that he showed at the Travelers en route to his first made cut of the restart. Bentgrass could give him the boost he has needed, and it might not take much for him to challenge for a top-20 finish.

Lanto Griffin ($7,400)

We finally get a price boost for Lanto Griffin, who jumps $600 in salary after his second straight top-25 finish since the restart. In my opinion, the increase in cost should be viewed as a positive since it allows us to roster Griffin at reduced ownership levels, allowing us to enable our edge over the field.

Ryan Palmer ($7,200)

Two weeks ago, a hiccup on Friday at Travelers Championship turned Ryan Palmer's fortunes upside-down and resulted in a round two explosion to miss the cut. Severe volatility from event-to-event hasn't been outside the norm for the American, but Palmer hasn't missed back-to-back cuts on tour since the Players Championship/Valero Texas Open in April of 2019. I can't say I don't have concerns regarding Palmer's sometimes paltry bunker play, but it does feel as if we are getting a rebate at $7,200.

Jim Furyk ($6,900)

It is kind of weird to say that Jim Furyk provides cash-game appeal after missing four of his previous six cuts, but you could do worse in terms of safety than the 50-year-old at under $7,000 on DraftKings. The American has made six of his past eight cuts at Muirfield Village - five of which resulting in top-35 finishes. Furyk's style of game isn't ideal for DraftKings scoring, but there is a chance that he can plod together a four-round total at a cheap price tag.

Matthew NeSmith ($6,800)

Matthew NeSmith is beginning to get the Lanto Griffin treatment from DFS sites. No matter what he does weekly, we see him priced under $7,000. That fact hasn't been lost amongst the fantasy community as a whole, which is why we currently see NeSmith projected at 10 percent ownership. I'm never a massive fan of eating sub-$7,000 chalk, but I can understand the infatuation around the selection this week. When I agree with the public's consensus, I typically prefer to use golfers like NeSmith as a cash-game play because of their apparent mispricing, but you could convince me to play him in all game types as a bargain bin value.

Adam Schenk ($6,500)

I find Adam Schenk to be an intriguing shot in the dark selection at the Workday Charity Open. His stats won't necessarily jump off the page when you dive into them, but there are a few areas that have piqued my curiosity. The 28-year-old ranks sixth compared to the field in scrambling, as well as inside the top-40 in par-four+bogey avoidance, proximity from 150-175 yards and over 200 yards, ball striking and putting within 10 feet. Schenk is rolling into the event off of a 30th place showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic but will most likely carry only a one percent ownership total. We are only looking for a made cut when we get into this territory, but I think there could be some sneaky appeal for more.

Cameron Davis ($6,400)

A brutal three-foot miss for par for Cameron Davis on his final hole Friday at Detroit Golf Club resulted in the Aussies' second straight missed cut since the restart. The disaster finish will surely keep most off of him after the 25-year-old ripped many potential star-studded lineups to shreds, but Davis has been steadier than his results may indicate. There is always going to be risk associated with selections this deep down the board, but a sprinkle of Davis here and there won't hurt since you don't need much of him to be overweight to the field.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Rocket Mortgage Classic

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Dustin Johnson took home his 21st title on the PGA Tour during last week's Travelers Championship, outlasting Kevin Streelman late to get himself across the finish line. The American got off to a slow start in Connecticut by posting a one-over par score through 12 holes on Thursday but found something with his putter over the next three days that had not been there recently.

While you are always going to need the winner to find upper-level DFS success, Johnson was required to have any chance at a real payout. The 36-year-old was owned in 20% of all GPP lineups, and his 133.50 points helped a lot of people turn his victory into cash, including our very own Joe Nicely, who took down the $35k Drive the Green contest for a cool $10,000.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

Rocket Mortgage Classic - PGA DFS Overview

Detroit Golf Club

7,300 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass (With Poa Annua Mix)

It would be a stretch to say that the PGA Tour's first trial run in Detroit last season was a success. The event missed out on getting most of the big names, and a tournament-winning score of 25-under par by Nate Lashley turned things into more of a shootout than most would care to see.

Unfortunately, a lot of those same issues might be on tap in its second go-around in 2020. Bryson DeChambeau does lead the field into the week, but an overall lack of star power can be felt throughout the board. To make matters worse, it doesn't appear as if the PGA has done much to enhance the track's difficulty. Perhaps the rough has been grown out partially, but I don't think it is going to do much to keep scores down as a whole, and I don't believe it is a stretch to say that the winning score could rival that of Lashley's in 2019.

Donald Ross originally designed Detroit Golf Club in 1914, and we still see the same tree-lined nature from the day it was built. The greens feature a combination of 85% Bentgrass and 15% Poa Annua, and it looks as if the putting surface will be set up to play quickly once again. Water will only come into play on one hole, but the entire venue has strategic bunkering throughout. All four par-fives are scorable and even feature eagle chances for those willing to take a few risks, but at the end of the day, golfers are going to need a hot iron and putter for four days to find success.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Detroit Golf Club Tour Average
Driving Distance 296 283
Driving Accuracy 64% 60%
GIR Percentage 72% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 61% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.55 0.54

In Vegas, as of Tuesday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 6.5/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 12/1, Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton at 16/1, Hideki Matsuyama at 18/1 and Viktor Hovland at 22/1. Only Sungjae Im is currently listed at sub-30/1, and your defending champion, Nate Lashley, enters the week at a price tag of 125/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Mixed Bent/Poa Putting +ATG 22.5%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
  • Strokes Gained Approach 15%
  • Proximity 125-175 Yards 12.5%
  • Proximity 200+ Yards 10%
  • Par-Four Average 10%
  • Birdie or Better 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

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High-Priced DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700)

If you want to use the excuse of popularity for why you will be fading Bryson DeChambeau this weekend in Detroit, I can get behind the narrative, but it is going to be extremely difficult to ignore the big-hitting American otherwise. DeChambeau is the definitive favorite to find the winner's circle and has posted six straight top-eight finishes during his recent run. A victory feels as if it is coming shortly for the 26-year-old, and I wouldn't put it past him getting it here.

Webb Simpson ($11,000)

Despite his victory at the RBC Heritage, Webb Simpson is trending towards being the least popular golfer above 10k at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Simpson's stats grade out better than anyone in the field over the past two years, and the American should always be considered a threat anytime he tees it up. My only takeaway from this group above $10,000 this weekend is that the venue is so accessible that it might minimize their advantage over the field, but Simpson looks ideally suited for this week's test.

Tyrrell Hatton ($10,700)

In the last six weeks of action on the PGA Tour, which does include right before the season came to a crashing halt, Tyrrell Hatton has most likely been your best golfer in the world. Yes, I know that is a broad statement to make with the way Bryson DeChambeau is currently playing, but Hatton's win at the Arnold Palmer carries a lot of weight with DeChambeau still looking for a more recent title than his victory at the Omega Dubai Classic in January of 2019. Some might be surprised to hear DeChambeau hasn't won worldwide in over 1.5 years, which makes Hatton's two victories in his past five starts that much more impressive. I don't think you can go that wrong with this week's big-three, so you might want to not overthink things and play the man that makes the most sense to you.

Patrick Reed ($10,500)

I realize I sound like a broken record right now with my love-affair for the top of the board. The majority of your win equity does seem to be located in this range, and it is more of a reason to construct a stars-and-scrubs lineup than usual. I don't have much I can say against Patrick Reed after the American posted a fifth-place showing in his debut at this event last season, and his short game prowess should make him a threat to find birdies in bunches over the four days.

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200)

I don't dislike Hideki Matsuyama from a statistical standpoint at Detroit Golf Club, but I will have to draw a line in the sand somewhere at the top of the board. Matsuyama is 0-for-1 in cuts since the restart of the PGA season and did not look his typical self at the RBC Heritage. That isn't necessarily a reason to fade the Japanese sensation, but it is the biggest reason I can come up with for anyone priced above $10,000. I'd be much more interested in Matsuyama if he was the contrarian play of the week and wasn't projected to carry a 16 percent ownership total, but those two factors will have me underweight to the field. In fairness, I still will have him scattered throughout a few GPP builds.

Viktor Hovland ($10,000)

I'm not going to talk anyone out of playing Viktor Hovland, but I probably do have my biggest concerns with him out of the group. Three straight top-23 finishes since the restart shouldn't be scoffed at by any means, but we will need a top-10 finish from him this week to pay off his price tag. I don't know if I trust Hovland's putting and short game to not falter across the four days, and I feel like we probably end up with a disappointing finish outside the top-15 if we do decide to back him for the week. That isn't to say he doesn't have a chance to return value, but I'm willing to bet against him burning us with a top-five result.

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Mid-Priced DFS Players

Sungjae Im ($9,800)

Sungjae Im is number two in my model this week, but it is worth noting that he was BAD at the Travelers Championship. The 22-year-old should have missed the cut if we are being honest, and his two strokes lost with his irons were the second straight event that he failed to gain strokes with that facet of his game. Im's long-term statistics are what you would hope to see entering an event, but his short-term form does have me worried.

Tony Finau ($9,300)

If there is such a thing, Tony Finau was probably unlucky to miss the cut at the Travelers Championship. I had his first-round performance nearly 30 spots lower on the leaderboard than what should have resulted from his ball-striking numbers, and a sloppy day two had him miss the cut by just a stroke. Finau's game does look to set up nicely for Detroit Golf Club, and I'd have no hesitations about going back to the well after his faulty showing just a week ago.

Kevin Na ($9,100)

I am leaning towards placing Kevin Na into my core, but the hype is beginning to get a little out of control. I have Na ranked 16th in my model - five spots lower than where his betting/DFS values are located. I do believe there are pivot spots available if you decide to lessen your exposure to the 36-year-old, but I'd prefer to drop down in price (as opposed to moving up) if I did take that route.

Rory Sabbatini ($8,800)

Rory Sabbatini probably wouldn't be the first place I would start looking when talking about GPP upside, but his steady play as of late leaves him as an intriguing cash-game option to use at just $8,800. Sabbatini had a third-place showing at this venue in 2019 and hasn't finished outside the top-60 in his previous five events.

J.T. Poston ($8,700)

Two missed cuts and two top-10 showings are what we have on record for J.T. Poston's previous four starts. That level of erratic golf isn't necessarily a negative if we believe Poston can provide a top-10 showing at sub-10 percent ownership, which is well within the cards in Detroit. I'd avoid the American in cash-game lineups, but he should be considered as a semi-contrarian GPP upside play.

Doc Redman ($8,500)

I always like Doc Redman from a statistical sense, but I do have a fear that his $8,500 price tag might be too inflated for the time being. Redman's second-place showing here last season to go along with his two straight top-21 finishes in the last two weeks has the industry hyped to include him into their lineups, but 18 percent projected ownership is extremely lofty for someone that just as easily could finish outside the top-30 and perhaps even worse.

Lucas Glover ($8,400)

It has been a hot restart for Lucas Glover, who has posted three consecutive top-23 finishes since the return. I have Glover being slighted undervalued at his $8,400 price tag on DraftKings, and he is an option I would highly consider as a pivot option away from Doc Redman if you were considering that route in cash-games. However, both are a little riskier GPP plays given all the circumstances surrounding them.

Christian Bezuidenhout ($8,300)

Christian Bezuidenhout has a small sample size of information to work with because of the limited trackable rounds we have for him to date, but there is a lot to like when deciphering through his numbers. Ranked inside the top-eight compared to the field in strokes gained total, strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting, Bezuidenhout also brings with him the birdie-making style you would hope to see for an open track like Detroit Golf Club. There are some concerns that he doesn't play the par-fives well enough and has had some issues with his long irons, but his $8,300 price tag and sub-10 percent projected ownership does make him EXTREMELY intriguing for GPPs.

Adam Hadwin ($8,200)

I typically like Adam Hadwin more as a cash-game play when putting together my core, but the Canadian has real upside for all settings this week. Hadwin is ranked inside the top-20 compared to the field in both of the proximity ranges I am using this week to find quality iron players, and the 32-year-old is even cracking the top-10 of my statistical model. Those aren't things that happen often.

Erik Van Rooyen ($8,000)

I do believe there is a chance that Erik Van Rooyen might be a better outright bet than he is a DFS play because of his heightened volatility, but it is hard for me to ignore the South African in GPP settings. Van Rooyen's statistics should be taken with a grain salt because not only does he have limited PGA events to choose between, but his numbers did get slightly inflated when he competed at the WGC-Mexico - a venue that featured high altitude for all golfers involved. Still, though, Van Rooyen should be taken as a serious threat for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he has exhibited the upside to compete against the best in the world.

 

Low-Priced DFS Players

Maverick McNealy ($7,600)

All things being equal, would I rather select Harold Varner III? Sure. But the difference between Varner and Maverick McNealy is showing to be very minimal when you take into account Varner's nearly tournament-leading ownership projection of 18 percent. McNealy is a better birdie-maker than Varner, scores on the par-fives better and is someone you should consider if you want to pivot away from one of the chalkiest plays of the week.

Mark Hubbard ($7,200)

While Mark Hubbard has slowed down on his top-20 barrage since the restart, the 146th-ranked player in the world has still provided three made cuts in three weeks. The American is a quality putter on Poa greens and should be able to create opportunities this week at an easy Detroit venue.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,100)

Ranked seventh in my statistical model, Sebastian Munoz has missed three of his previous four cuts, but it is crucial to look at what exactly has been going on during that stretch. Munoz has gained strokes with his irons in eight of his past nine trackable tournaments, gained tee to green six of those times and has gained off the tee in his two most recent starts. A mixture of poor putting and around the green numbers have caused more combustibility than you could care to see, but the 27-year-old isn't as much of a liability as it would seem when we stretch the numbers out longer term. Munoz is 37th in my model when I look at putting on Bent/Poa greens + strokes gained around the green, and he jumps up inside the top-10 in birdie-making skills (both total and in par-five scoring).

Ryan Armour ($6,900)

I am not even sure most realize that Ryan Armour came 6th place during last week's Travelers Championship. It was a quiet display from the American, who shot rounds of 67,66,68 and 64, respectively. Armour experienced a six-tournament dry spell from January to March but has bounced back with two made cuts to begin the restarted portion of the season.

Bronson Burgoon ($6,200)

Volatile is the best way to describe Bronson Burgoon. His top-10 upside hasn't been there so far in 2020, but the American always gets a boost when given a venue that allows him a full complement of par-five holes. Burgoon isn't anything more than a shot in the dark option this far down the board, but he does have a 35th place showing in his one trip to Detroit.

Seamus Power ($6,000)

Are you feeling lucky? Maybe a little luck from the Irish will help lead you to fantasy riches this weekend. While you are far from guaranteed to get Power through the cut, his lack of recent golf is being too negatively weighted into his DFS price point. I have a fair price point being $6,600 on the 505th-ranked player in the world, and I think there is also some FRL appeal for those who want to take a shot at an astronomical number.

 

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Travelers Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Webb Simpson won his second PGA Tour title in his last four starts, holding off what felt like the entire tournament at one point on Sunday. Simpson's display of clutch birdie putts down the stretch was a welcoming sight for a player who nearly saw his career become derailed after an anchoring ban was put into place during the 2016 season, but through various style changes over the past few years, the American has roared back by becoming one of the best putters in the world with his new "claw grip."

While you are always going to need the winner to find upper-level DFS success, Simpson was required this weekend if you wanted any chance to sniff most leaderboards. The 34-year-old was owned in a staggering 27.9% of lineups in the 'Millionaire Maker,' and there was only one player in the top-five of DFS scoring that carried a total of under 10 percent (Joaquin Niemann 2.5%). We had many readers of this article post substantial sums of their own, so be sure to send me a screenshot whenever you find yourself having a big win!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

Travelers Championship - PGA DFS Overview

TPC River Highlands

6,841 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua (With Bentgrass)

TPC River Highlands was initially built in 1928 by Robert Ross but was re-designed twice in the 1980s by Pete Dye and Bobby Weed. There will be a lot of discussion within the industry of what kind of game will benefit the most from the layout, but I seem to be in the minority when it comes to my thoughts. While the venue does measure in as one of the shortest on tour, strokes gained off the tee should not be viewed as a negative. Driving accuracy is nearly six percentage points higher here than your average tour stop, and there is room to create separation with your driver.

That is not to say that approach statistics won't be equally as crucial, but I do believe there isn't as pronounced of an advantage to be had as most weeks. Instead of piling up on an abundant quantity of approach totals into your model, ball striking and proximity from 125-175 yards would be my preferred territory to place the majority of my emphasis. A little approach thrown into the filter isn't the end of the world, but I do worry that you run the risk of being too heavily weighted on a statistic that might not carry as much substance as it appears on paper.

Another week of small greens should have us attaching some weight when it comes to around the green numbers, and birdie making skills will be at a premium with the event typically playing as a shootout. Add in a little driving distance, par-four scoring and putting on Poa Annua/Bentgrass greens, and you begin to form a pretty good indication of what might be needed for the week.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat TPC River Highlands Tour Average
Driving Distance 280 283
Driving Accuracy 66% 60%
GIR Percentage 67% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 57% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.48 0.54

In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas all lead the way at 14/1 and are followed by Jon Rahm, Webb Simpson and Brooks Koepka at 20/1. Four additional players slot in between 25 to 30/1, and Chez Reavie, your defending champion of this event, comes into the week at 125/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green 20%
  • Ball Striking 20%
  • Proximity From 125-175 Yards 17.5%
  • Par-Four Average 17.5%
  • Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
  • OTT+Driving Distance + Scrambling 10%

 

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High-Priced DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Rory McIlroy ($11,200)

It has been a slow restart for Rory McIlroy, who has seen his past two tournaments end in less than stellar finishes outside the top-30. Overall, McIlroy's irons have not been as crisp as we are used to seeing them, but you can go down the board with everything not quite stacking up in the fashion we are used to getting out of the 31-year-old. While TPC River Highlands might not appear to be the venue where McIlroy can get the most out of his driver, the open fairways should allow the Irishman to bomb away at one of the shortest courses on tour. Advancing the ball down the fairway here is not a negative, and McIlroy has bounceback potential oozing through the cracks.

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)

Bryson DeChambeau kept the momentum rolling with his fifth straight top-eight finish during last week's RBC Heritage, but the big-hitting American had to leave Hilton Head moderately disappointed after a Sunday 70 stunted his overall finish. DeChambeau is trending towards being the most popular player on the DraftKings slate in Connecticut, but it isn't easy to find many reasons to avoid him. DeChambeau ranks inside the top-31 in all my key statistics this weekend, although his mid-irons haven't been as on point as you would hope. I believe a strong case can be made to pivoting from DeChambeau onto McIlroy because of ownership totals, but we are splitting hairs otherwise.

Justin Thomas ($10,800)

Unfortunately, Justin Thomas' ascension up the leaderboard at Harbour Town will have some ownership affects for us this weekend. Thomas is currently projected to be the second-highest owned player on the DraftKings slate (behind only Bryson DeChambeau), but it is easy to understand the rationale behind the cavalcade of DFS participants sticking their flag behind the third-ranked player in the world. There's enough ownership spread between DeChambeau, Thomas and McIlroy that you can get away with going overweight on any of the choices, but it won't be easy to choose between the three on the week. All are ELITE options.

Webb Simpson ($10,500)

We get a $1,500 jump in pricing on Webb Simpson this week after winning the RBC Heritage. That increase in salary should cause the nearly 30 percent of DraftKings participants who owned him last weekend to look elsewhere, but it is never a terrible idea to go back to the well when a player is showing quality form. It is difficult to justify paying a salary that is enhanced from his victory, but we did need to see a correction in the market after he entered last week's proceedings at only $9,000. Simpson is probably a better cash-game option than GPP play, but there is some contrarian appeal to be had in large-field events.

John Rahm ($10,200)

Jon Rahm put together a bit of a ho-hum four days in South Carolina, posting a 33rd place showing for the event. Those who followed his weekend rounds will know that the Spaniard missed a plethora of short birdie opportunities throughout his 36 holes, and it does seem likely that the move back to Poa Annua should do him wonders on the putting surface. Rahm isn't quite on the same level as the upper-echelon players in the world, but there is winning equity to be had at a discounted price.

Brooks Koepka ($10,000)

I've been stressing this point for nearly a year, and I think it is just beginning to hit home for some throughout the industry. Brooks Koepka's propensity to struggle in non-major events doesn't come down to a lack of effort or care; it stems from a shortage of practice. Koepka does most of the work with his game when playing in an actual tournament, and we tend to see him struggle in his first few events back from an extended absence. The more golf he plays, the better his results usually get, and we typically see him peak come major time. Koepka will be teeing it up for the third week in a row - a plus given my reasoning behind the situation - but I do believe he has been slightly overinflated on DraftKings. I am interested to see where his ownership eventually settles, but it is hard to play everyone from this range.

 

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Mid-Priced DFS Players

Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)

It has been since the Genesis Invitational in February since we have last seen Patrick Cantlay in action, and the 28-year-old will make his long-awaited return this week at the Travelers Championship. Cantlay has provided two top-15 finishes in his two attempts at TPC River Highlands, but it remains to be seen where his game is at entering the week. Cantlay makes for a better GPP option because of the slight uncertainty, but the upside is there for him to find success if he comes out with guns blazing.

Xander Schauffele ($9,600)

Whether you want to call it a one-week hangover for Xander Schauffele or something else, the four-time PGA Tour winner was stuck in quicksand last weekend at Harbour Town, posting a disappointing 64th place result. Schauffele was able to rally together rounds of 66 on Friday and Sunday, but the 26-year-old looked faulty with almost all facets of his game. Theoretically, TPC River Highlands should provide a nice rebound spot for the American, and we should be looking at him at a discounted ownership percentage.

Dustin Johnson ($9,400)

From an overall performance standpoint, last weekend was probably the best we have seen Dustin Johnson look over four days in quite some time. Johnson gained an impressive 8.5 shots with his driver and irons for the week, but as has been the case far too often for the 20-time PGA Tour winner, he was let down on the greens by his putter. Johnson will get a crack to try his hand on his preferred putting surface of Poa Annua, making him an intriguing upside play if his flat stick cooperates for the week.

Collin Morikawa ($9,100)

After gaining strokes with his irons over his previous 11 tournaments, Collin Morikawa faltered in South Carolina for the first time since August 11th, losing 0.9 shots with his approach game. It is difficult to tell what exactly went wrong over the four days for the young sensation out of UCLA, but I am willing to chalk it up to nothing more than a fluke. Morikawa has yet to lose strokes with his irons in back-to-back tournaments in his career, and I don't believe he will start at TPC River Highlands.

Abraham Ancer ($9,000)

You aren't going to see many play the quality of golf that Abraham Ancer did last weekend and lose very often. Ancer was sensational both off the tee and with his irons, ranking first in driving accuracy, greens in regulation and strokes gained approach. Unfortunately, Ancer's putter let him down when he needed it most, and he is going to need to let the past quickly exit his mind if he is going to find success at TPC River Highlands. Ancer has posted one top-50 finish here in his three attempts - an eighth-place showing last season. His increase in popularity does have me worried if he can't get his head back on straight after his narrow miss, but there is another side of this argument that would point to him being potentially undervalued because of his immaculate tee-to-green game that is clearly firing on all cylinders.

Paul Casey ($8,900)

Five straight top-17 finishes at TPC River Highlands since 2015, including two seconds and two fifths, should help to explain what makes Paul Casey an intriguing target this weekend in Connecticut, but will there be any rust for the Englishman after not playing since the WGC-Mexico in February? If you want to view him from a statistical sense, he is a premier option, but you are going to have to trust your gut on this one. I believe the lack of golf leading into the week does take him out of the running for cash-game builds, but the choice is yours when it comes to GPPs.

Bubba Watson ($8,800)

Is everyone ready for Bubba Watson week? Consider me very surprised that Watson isn't currently projected to garner 20%+ ownership, but you would have to imagine that any estimate that you see for him is probably going to be moderately low. Watson is going to be one of the most tipped golfers from touts, and his three victories here since 2010 will drive many to the 46th-ranked player in the world. Watson's creativity and distance off the tee have been a catalyst for his achievements at TPC River Highlands, and while I do think he is somewhat overpriced because various casinos have baked in his past success at the venue, it is hard to point against him for a stylistic standpoint. Bubba does just about everything you would hope to see from a player you are targeting.

Sungjae Im ($8,600)

How did Sungjae Im handle his missed cut in South Carolina? By going to the range on Saturday morning to warm up with the players who would be playing in round three! While it may sound like a punchline to a joke, the video above does indeed show the South Korean fully geared up and ready to play a round of golf. Im should be itching to get himself back out there after losing 4.4 shots on the greens at RBC Heritage, and it is worth noting that his second-biggest loss with his putter also came the season before at Harbour Town. Im bounced back with a 31st place showing after that performance last season, and I believe we should be expecting even better than that this time around, given his improvement in skill over the past year.

Gary Woodland ($8,300)

Gary Woodland's 62nd place showing at the RBC Heritage doesn't look great on paper, but there were a few breaking points that tore his four-day performance apart. If we turn his double bogey on Sunday and his quadruple bogey in round 3 into pars, we see his production jump to a share of 33rd place. That still isn't necessarily ideal for a venue that should have been tailormade for his total driving skills, but Woodland will get a pristine opportunity to rebound at another track that suits his game. The American ranks third for me in my model, and inside the top-21 for all the statistical categories I am weighting.

Tony Finau($8,200)

Tony Finau faltered with a disappointing one-under par on Sunday at the RBC Heritage, dropping from 11th place to his eventual finish of 33rd. We can blame some of it on Harbour Town not being an ideal setup for the long-hitter, but Finau's usually trusty irons from within 200 yards failed him over four days. However, TPC River Highlands does set up to be an excellent venue for the one-time PGA Tour winner to have his tee-to-green prowess shine through, and it shouldn't hurt that he ranks nearly 30 spots better on my spreadsheet when it comes to his play on Poa grass versus other surfaces.

 

Low-Priced DFS Players

Viktor Hovland ($7,800)

Similar to Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland's firey finish at Heritage will cause a partial overreaction in the market on DFS sites. I don't think it is outrageous to say there is a chance for the Norweigan golfer to approach 20% ownership for the week, but when do we reach the point that it is too extreme? Honestly, we might already be there for Hovland, who is hard to argue against at his $7,800 price tag, but it is not as if the 22-year-old has been steady with his results. No top-20 finishes over his last nine tournaments should cause some concern, and I'd probably rather be underweight and make the youngster beat me, even if he does grade out well for the event.

Scottie Scheffler ($7,600)

Scottie Scheffler will be making his tournament debut at TPC River Highlands this week after withdrawing before the RBC Heritage. There was some speculation that Scheffler might have been dealing with Covid-19 when the news first broke last weekend, but it is now safe to say that the American's removal from the event involved something else entirely. Scheffler makes for an extremely strong pivot if you are trying to be somewhat contrarian in this range, although he should still garner nearly 10 percent ownership himself. Scheffler is ranking 14th on my model when it comes to strokes gained tee-to-green, and he places an impressive sixth in driving distance.

Jason Kokrak ($7,400)

My mid-tournament model after day one essentially labeled six golfers as being massive underperformers for the day at the RBC Heritage. Joel Dahmen, Abraham Ancer, Sergio Garcia, Joaquin Niemann and Corey Conners all turned their event into shots at the title with their play over the next three days, but it was not to be for Jason Kokrak, who proceeded to disappoint on Friday and missed the cut at even-par. I would be careful and not overexpose myself to Kokrak with his two straight missed cuts at this venue, I do believe he carries hidden GPP appeal if his putter can cooperate - a massive ask during any event for the 35-year-old.

Ryan Moore ($6,900)

A Thursday 73 at Harbour Town ended Ryan Moore's bid for the weekend, and the same could be said about his Friday 74 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Moore is playing better golf than meets the eye, and he has thrown in two top-17 results at TPC River Highlands in his past three attempts. His slow restart has diminished his salary and should greatly reduce his ownership, but there is upside for a sneaky top-20 out of the former UNLV product.

Russell Henley ($6,800)

Russell Henley was unable to make the cut last weekend in South Carolina after bogeying the 18th hole with a wedge in his hand from just about 100 yards out. That result mixed with his missed cut showing at TPC River Highlands in 2019 has plummeted both his outright and DFS price, but it is important to note that Henley has recorded two top-11 appearances here since 2016. The American was on a hot run before the three-month cancellation halted his season, and I think it makes sense to chalk his result last weekend up to nothing more than a fluky finish.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): RBC Heritage

Welcome back, RotoBallers! With golf being one of the leading sports to make its return to normalcy, many first-time viewers and DFS players were treated to what a typical week of golf can produce - chaos and insanity. The back-nine on Sunday was littered with the usual ensemble of star-studded golfers that we are used to seeing, but in the end, Daniel Berger found his name on top of the leaderboard after firing a Sunday four-under 66.

While many were left surprised that Berger was ultimately the player to emerge from the ashes, maybe it shouldn't have come as a shock. Always regarded as a premier talent, the American had his career derailed by a wrist injury that sidelined him in 2018 and conclusively left his 2019 campaign in shambles. However, a recent run before golf's three-month departure took place had seen the 27-year-old put together six straight top-38 results, including three consecutive top-nine finishes. There is a reason why 13 percent of participants in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker played the now three-time PGA Tour winner, and the outcome undoubtedly helped to propel many to a week of profit.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

RBC Heritage - PGA DFS Overview

Harbour Town

7,099 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

Originally built in 1969, Harbour Town is a Pete Dye track that Jack Nicklaus partially designed. Even though the property was the first time Nicklaus helped to develop a course, it was masterfully pieced together with the typical Dye quirks that you would expect.

While the venue measures in at a less than stellar 7,100 yards, don't be confused by its lack of length. Tree-lined fairways do help to disguise some of the heavy wind that can come into play, but the coastal layout is unforgiving with gusts and sand traps always looming around the corner. Narrow landing areas off the tee will place a heavy emphasis on finding the short grass, and it is one of the many reasons why Harbour Town always produces one of the lowest driving distances on tour.

Precision iron play will be at a premium, as the course features some of the smallest greens on tour. That point is emphasized by golfers hitting under 58% of greens in regulation, making scrambling and around the green prowess a must. Three par-threes measure between 175-200 yards and all produce birdies at under a 12 percent rate. On top of that, even though all three par-fives are reachable in two shots, the small putting surfaces yield an eagle frequency of 2.4%, 1.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Par-four scoring will be needed with 11 holes taking place in that range each day, and golfers that can create opportunities from between 150 to 200 yards will be rewarded handsomely.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Harbour Town Tour Average
Driving Distance 267 283
Driving Accuracy 62% 60%
GIR Percentage 57% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 61% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.38 0.54

In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Justin Thomas at 16/1, Bryson DeChambeau at 16/1, Jon Rahm at 18/1 and Xander Schauffele at 22/1. Five additional players slot in between 25 to 30/1, and C.T. Pan, your defending champion of this event, comes into the week at 200/1.

 

Key Stats

  • GIR 17.5%
  • Proximity 150-200 Yards 15%
  • Strokes Gained Approach 15%
  • Par-Four Average 15%
  • Sand Save 12.5%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 10%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
  • Strokes Gained Putting 5%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Rory McIlroy ($11,300)

We talked about the dangers last week of sticking our chips on Rory McIlroy, who entered the Colonial at a mind-numbing $11,800 price tag on DraftKings. Despite the concerns of the Irishman needing to win the event to pay off his price tag, he still generated over 15% ownership on the week en route to a 32nd place showing. In McIlroy's defense, a four-over 74 quickly dashed any hopes his backers had of finding success on Sunday, but the risk of finishing outside the top-five was always going to be a concern. A $500 decrease in price and potential five-plus percent dip in ownership does firmly put the number one player in the world back on the map as an option worth considering, but McIlroy's inability to close on Sunday does make me partially concerned at a venue that will reduce his driving prowess. With all that being said, I don't have any issues using him as a somewhat contrarian GPP option.

Justin Thomas ($10,900)

From a statistical standpoint, you might not find anyone in this event that is more well-equipped to find success at Harbour Town than Justin Thomas. The American ranks inside the top-five compared to the field over the past two seasons in birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, par-four scoring, proximity from 100 to 150 yards, greens in regulation and strokes gained approach. However, the one issue that does come into play for Thomas at times is his driving accuracy. At courses under 7,200 yards, Thomas ranks 121st compared to the field over his previous 50 qualifying rounds. Is that a reason to cross the 27-year-old off your list? Of course not. But it does add in a slight red flag, and you can find another when you consider he is typically better from within 150 yards than from 150+.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,700)

Bryson DeChambeau appears to be well on his way to breaking the game of golf. His power and accuracy off the tee will make him a threat whenever he tees it up for the foreseeable future, but a venue such as Harbour Town will negate some of those eye-popping advantages that he does display. DeChambeau played Colonial last week in a different fashion than most, taking his drives over the trees and attempting to cut-off portions of the course, and while that was a strategy that paid dividends, it will not work in the same fashion at RBC Heritage. The 12th-ranked player in the world does have two top-four finishes here in his four attempts, but his volatility has shown with two missed cuts thrown into the mix. I am all in on Bryson going forward, but it does make some sense to take a step back this weekend at his hefty ownership percentage. Then again, everything about DeChambeau seems to be hefty these days.

Jon Rahm ($10,500)

It is easy to take a lazy narrative route with Jon Rahm last weekend. Colonial was a venue that seemingly took driver out of the Spaniard's hands, and a missed cut was always in the cards, right? Not so fast. Sure, Rahm disappointed his backers with an even-par showing over his two days to miss the cut, but let's actually figure out what went wrong. The second-ranked player in the world gained strokes with all facets of his game other than putting, losing a staggering 4.2 shots on the greens. For reference sake, Rahm's performance was the second-worst of his career in an event where he failed to make the cut, but he was able to bounce back from that showing by gaining 3.1 strokes in his next tournament. If you are seriously worried about the 25-year-old at a shorter track, he is ranked sixth in good drive percentage at courses under 7,200 yards over his previous 50 rounds.

Xander Schauffele ($10,200)

I didn't quite know what to do with Xander Schauffele last weekend with the question marks surrounding how much golf he had played entering the week, but the point I had been harping on for months finally came to fruition when he nearly took down the Charles Schwab at a venue with tiny greens. Schauffele is a premier player when it comes to GIR percentage, and the reason behind that stems from his more conservative nature of finding the middle of the putting surface. We see this sometimes work against his favor when placed at a course with larger putting surfaces, but tracks such as Colonial or Harbour Town play right into his wheelhouse because of his ability to locate scoring opportunities. Consider Xander to once again be very much in play at a course that should suit his strengths.

Collin Morikawa ($10,000)

Harbour Town is a beautiful set up for Collin Morikawa and his pristine iron play, but I can't help but find his $10,000 price tag to be overbearing at this time. His 21 straight made cuts to begin his career is no doubt impressive, but there is a massive difference between what you are asking out of the 23-year-old at a price tag of $8,000 versus $10,000. For as good as Morikawa has been since his victory at the Barracuda Championship in July, he has only provided five top-20 results over his previous 16 events. If you are looking for cash-game safety, I can get behind him as a play, but the upside hasn't been nearly as profound as his second-place showing last weekend would have you believe.

 

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Mid-Priced DFS Players

Sungjae Im ($9,700)

I wouldn't place too much stock into Sungjae Im missing the cut in his only attempt at RBC Heritage. Not only is the South Korean a different player than he was a season ago, but his skill set will set up nicely for a venue that should reward his all-around game. I'm never going to be going all-in on a player who is expected to generate one of the highest ownership percentages on the slate in GPP contests, but that doesn't mean I won't have my fair share of him in cash-game lineups.

Justin Rose ($9,200)

It didn't take long for Justin Rose to have his equipment change from Honma to TaylorMade pay off, as the Englishman secured a share of third place at Colonial, his best finish of 2020. Initial projections have Rose hovering around 10 percent ownership for the upcoming week, but I can't imagine that number will not inflate over the next few days. Rose's potential volatility has me looking elsewhere when it comes to cash games, but his upside for victory is present in GPP contests, especially when you ignore his shoddy GIR percentage that surely was enhanced over the past season because of his old Honma clubs.

Webb Simpson ($9,000)

How many of you got caught in Simpson's web last weekend? Don't worry; you weren't the only ones taken down by the American's horrendous three-over par Thursday round. I think the industry has gotten better as a whole of not allowing one poor performance to sway their mindset the next weekend, and that point seems to be evident by Simpson currently projected to be nearly 20 percent owned once again. It will be interesting to see if that total remains stable throughout the week, but I would anticipate a slight decrease in that number for those that don't want to end up with egg on their face twice in a row. If you are looking to be contrarian, I am fine moving some of my shares elsewhere in GPP contests, but there might not be a safer cash-game option on the board.

Jordan Spieth ($8,700)

There isn't a golfer on the tour that is more must-watch television than Jordan Spieth. Chaos looms anytime he addresses the ball, and poor (or lucky) Michael Greller gets to watch the show unfold with a front-row seat every event. The point has been driven home enough about what a magical putter the 26-year-old can be when in form, but did we really see what we were hoping to from Spieth with the rest of his game? There is no doubt that the American was an improvement off the tee, but we shouldn't anticipate him gaining nine strokes putting weekly. Colonial was the perfect set up for Spieth's return, and it is vital to avoid falling right back into the trap at Harbour Town.

Matt Kuchar ($8,300)

It has been a while since a golfer has cost me as much money as Matt Kuchar did on the 18th hole on Friday. My exposure was massive to him across the board, and the 41-year-old took all that I had. I guess it shouldn't be considered that much of a surprise with the way Kuchar likes to keep as much money as he can to himself, but it didn't make it any easier for me to stomach. As I mentioned earlier with Webb Simpson, short-term memory is needed to wager on anything properly, and I think some will refuse to go back down the well because of the way Kuchar ruined their week. I'm once again fine playing the American in all game types and believe a rebound is in order.

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000)

Two worldwide wins for Tyrrell Hatton in his last four starts has changed the narrative around the often hot-headed Englishman. Hatton's short game can be a thing of beauty when he is in form, and a strategical/windy test such as the Heritage should play right into his style.

 

Low-Priced DFS Players

Branden Grace ($7,800)

While it was always going to be highly hypothetical to expect Branden Grace to generate limited ownership at an event where he has provided a victory and two additional top-11 showings since 2015, his run at the title over the first three days at Colonial didn't help matters out for us. For me, it is going to come down to what exactly we are looking at with his ownership percentage. If you could promise me under 10 percent, I'd be highly intrigued, but I am not sure we will get that with the way Grace could get talked up within the industry. If he does happen to transform into a chalky GPP choice, I'd prefer to look elsewhere in this range because he is far from bulletproof.

Shane Lowry ($7,800)

Shane Lowry has had a bad habit of stringing consecutive missed cuts together, but I want to give him the benefit of the doubt with his production in Texas last weekend. Even if we aren't talking a plethora of strokes gained, Lowry earned with all facets of his game if you remove putting, and it took his negative-5.4 effort on the greens to help him miss the cut at Colonial. The Irishman competed for the title here last season and has always been a golfer that has provided quality results at shorter courses.

Jason Day ($7,600)

Part of the issue with Jason Day is that his price on DFS sites always seems intriguing from a contrarian standpoint. Not many are eager to back the Aussie on a given week because of his injury concerns, and the number of times he has imploded for those that have given him the benefit of the doubt has been alarming. I realize there is no convincing anyone that has blacklisted Day from their lineups moving forward, but the 2015 PGA Championship winner has feasted on shorter courses like Pebble Beach throughout his career, partially because of the upside of removing the driver out of his game. Day's iron play has been notably picked apart over the last few seasons, but it is worth noting that we often see him struggle the most from really short or long ranges. It will surprise some that Day ranks inside the top-25 in this field over the past two seasons in proximity from 150-200 yards, and his short game ability should add another feather to his cap for those looking for a big payday.

Adam Hadwin ($7,300)

I've never been a massive fan of Adam Hadwin when it comes to actual win equity, but the Canadian is a powerful cash-game play for those that start their lineups a little heavier up top. Hadwin has made 17 of his previous 20 cuts and enters the weeks with three top-50 finishes here over his last three attempts.

Bud Cauley ($7,200)

Like Adam Hadwin, Bud Cauley has been a relatively steady play weekly for those looking to get a man into the weekend. If we ignore Cauley's withdrawal at the Northern Trust, he has provided 13 made cuts in his last 16 attempts and is an interesting golfer to play alongside Hadwin in cash-game builds. Starting a lineup in that fashion will leave $8,875 per position over your last four sports, which gives you some freedom up top.

Maverick McNealy ($7,100)

Maverick McNealy has been one of the most consistent golfers on tour since the start of the 2020 PGA season, making 12 of his 13 cuts since the Safeway Open, but it has failed to amount to much support in the fantasy circles. While some might believe his cashes have been nothing more than bottom-feeder finishes, McNealy has turned five of his past six into top-32 results. That is the kind of upside we are looking for with players projected to be under five percent owned, and it could pay out lavishly if you are able to construct the right roster around him. With that being said, the amount of money you earn will pale in comparison to the net worth of McNealy's family. 

Talor Gooch ($7,000)

There might not be a player more underpriced weekly than Talor Gooch. The 28-year-old has the longest active cut streak during the 2020 season at 13 overall, providing five top-25s and two top-10s during his run. Gooch will be making his debut at Habour Town this weekend, but his style of game should set up well if he doesn't get wild off the tee.

Ryan Moore ($6,900)

A Friday 74 took Ryan Moore from 16th place after day one to an eventual missed cut at the Charles Schwab. It was a disappointing result for those who thought they had struck oil in Texas, but I am willing to go back down the well again at a venue that has been kind to him in the past. Moore has provided two consecutive made cuts at Harbour Town, posting a 16th place finish in 2018.

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