Tag: PGA horse for the course

Hello again PGA family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! What started out as an exciting Sunday at the Farmers turned into a somber event, as the news of Kobe Bryant's tragic death lingered over the broadcast and reverberated throughout the sports world. You don't have to be a Lakers or Kobe fan to understand the impact that he had on basketball and sports in general, and the fact that he was traveling with his 13-year-old daughter Gianna and several other passengers makes this loss even greater.

Ok, enough sadness, let's talk some golf. Marc Leishman found his groove in the final round at Torrey Pines to storm past a stout field and win the Farmers Insurance Open. It was a great week for us here at HFTC, as every player highlighted last week made the cut, with Jon Rahm, Tiger Woods, and Ryan Palmer remaining squarely in the mix to win throughout the weekend.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history, for my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Waste Management Phoenix Open Overview

After a Farmers tournament that had a heavy feel, we're in for a lighter setting in Phoenix this week. The Waste Management can sometimes get a little rowdy, but is always tons of fun for both the fans and the players. While everyone can cut loose a bit at the WM, make no mistake, this is a very competitive event that features some of the Tour's best players.

This year's field seems to be especially strong, with defending champion Rickie Fowler set to be joined by some legitimate stars. Players like Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau will tee it up, with young guns Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff, and Collin Morikawa also expected to be in attendance. This WM field seems even better than what we normally see in this event and it should make building PGA DFS rosters a blast this week. Let's go!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium)

South: Par 71 - 7,261 Yards, Greens: Bermuda

A lot will be made of the famous Par-3 16th hole this week, and rightfully so, as it's unlike any other hole we see on the PGA Tour, but players will have to tame the other 17 holes at TPC Scottsdale if they want to win this week. The Stadium Course isn't difficult by PGA Tour standards and the average winning score over the last five years has been around 16-to-17 under par, with the 36-hole cut line normally around Even par.

Players will need to take advantage of three gettable Par-5s, as well as the driveable Par-4 17th hole, so distance is a nice bonus this week. Perhaps more important than distance is iron play...strokes gained on approach is a consistent trait of players that fare well in Phoenix. We have a nice sample size of course history to draw from this week and I feel comfortable making strong iron play with good proximity numbers my top priority for this event as I narrow down my potential player pool.

 

The Horse

Rickie Fowler (DraftKings - $10,500)

Notable Course History: Win ('19), T11 ('18), T4 ('17), 2nd ('16), T46 ('15)

It’s easy to sometimes dismiss the defending champ of an event, but I think that would be a mistake this week. Rickie took down last year’s WM in some wild conditions, but it certainly was no fluke, as he has a long history of success in this event.

His missed cut at the Farmers will be a cause of concern to some, but the cycle of playing bad at Torrey, followed by playing well in Phoenix, has turned into something of an annual tradition for Fowler. These are Rickie’s last four years of results at the Farmers and Waste Management: ‘19: T66/Win, ‘18: MC/T11, ‘17: MC/T4, ‘16: MC/2nd...so don’t be surprised at all by a Fowler bounce-back this week.

 

The Ponies

Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings - $10,100)

Notable Course History: T15 ('19), W/D ('18), Win ('17), Win ('16), T2 ('15)

I can’t rightly do a course history article for the Waste Management without mentioning Hideki Matsuyama. He’s a beast in this tournament and has a downright legendary track record in Phoenix that includes back-to-back wins in 2016-17 on the heels of a T2 in ‘15.

‘Deki has been flying under the radar a bit this season, but he’s been sharp, logging consecutive top-three finishes during the fall swing and two solid outings since the calendar flipped over. The Japanese star wasn't great at Torrey last week, losing strokes both putting and off the tee, but he’s an elite ball striker, which probably explains why he’s flourished on this TPC Scottsdale layout over the years. Matsuyama’s history here is no secret - so he will be “Chalki Chalksuyama” in DFS and OAD formats this week - but his elite blend of course history, skill set, and current form is impossible to ignore.

 

Matt Kuchar (DraftKings - $9,400)

Notable Course History: T4 ('19), T5 ('18), T9 ('17)

Matt Kuchar is never a guy that we're pumped to roster, especially not at $9.4k, but he's flashed tremendous upside at the WMPO in recent years with two top-fives and a top-10 since 2017. Kuch was in the midst of a rather underwhelming stretch before capturing the Singapore Open a couple of weeks ago. You can argue about the strength of that field, but a win is a win - and it lets us know that he should be in pretty solid form as he heads to the friendly confines of TPC Scottsdale. Look...we all know that Kuchar is a scoop of vanilla in a field full of tantalizing players with flavor, but if this is going to suppress his ownership, he actually makes for an intriguing GPP option this week.

 

Daniel Berger (DraftKings - $7,800)

Notable Course History: MC ('19), T11 ('18), T7 ('17), T58 ('16), T10 ('15)

It wasn’t that long ago that Daniel Berger seemed on a path to stardom. Twice a winner on the PGA Tour before the age of 25, Berger was the 20th-ranked player in the world as recently as the summer of 2017. Unfortunately, his career has been sharply derailed by injuries over the last couple of years and he currently sits at 152nd in the OWGR.

Still just 26-years-old, there have been some signs of life from Berger recently. He ran off a string of top-25 finishes during the fall swing and has looked sharp tee-to-green in two starts this calendar year. Berger has gained 5.3 (Sony) and 4.4 (AmEx) strokes T2G in his 2020 starts and brings that sharp ball-striking form to a TPC Scottsdale track where he’s recorded three finishes inside the top-11 since 2015. He’s been cold with the putter as late, but if he can warm the flatstick up he just might make some noise in the desert this week.

 

Byeong Hun An (DraftKings - $7,600)

Notable Course History: T20 ('19), T23 ('18), 6th ('17)

It feels like a lot of folks turned to Benny An at his discounted DK price tag last week at the Farmers. Those that rostered him at Torrey were disappointed with a T68 finish - his second bad outing in as many weeks. While many will be ready to hop off the An train, I view this as a great buy-low opportunity on a player that’s finished inside the top-25 in all three of his previous Waste Management starts. He lost a ridiculously-bad 7.2 strokes putting last week, while gaining almost 3.5 strokes with his irons. Make no mistake, An isn’t a good putter, but we have to expect him to improve on that mark this week.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Hello again PGA family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! Andrew Landry popped up to win the American Express last week in a shootout over Abe Ancer and Scottie Scheffler. It was Landry's second-career win on the PGA Tour and it is safe to categorize this one as a huge surprise, as he came to the AmEx on the heels of five-straight missed cuts!

Last week's Horse, Charles Howell III, proved to be an unmitigated disaster as he missed the cut in this event for the first time in a million years. With CH3 withdrawing from this week's Farmers, it's pretty safe to assume that there is an injury situation going on. Hopefully, this week's highlighted players will be injury free and a little more successful!

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history, for my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Farmers Insurance Open Overview

After an avalanche of birdies in the desert last week, players will find things a bit tougher at the Farmers Insurance Open. Justin Rose won last year's Farmers at 21-under par, the lowest score this event had seen in nearly two decades. Rose is back to defend his title, but I would be very surprised if we see that type of scoring again this year.

Torrey Pines South is slated to host the 2021 U.S. Open and while it won't be in "U.S. Open mode" yet, I expect it to provide a fairly stiff test this week. Rose will be joined by Tiger Woods, who will be making his first start of 2020 after a hugely successful offseason in which he captured the ZOZO Championship and captained the U.S. team to a President's Cup victory. Woods has owned Torrey Pines throughout his career. This will be the strongest field we've seen in 2020, with stars like Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Jason Day all scheduled to tee it up this week!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Torrey Pines

South: Par 72 - 7,698 Yards, Greens: Bent w/ Poa
North: Par 72 - 7,258 Yards, Greens: Bent

While nothing like last week's American Express, we are again faced with rotating courses this week. Over the first two rounds, players will play once on Torrey Pines South and once on Torrey Pines North. Those that make the cut will finish out the weekend on the South course, the more famous and difficult of the two.

The South course hosted the 2008 U.S. Open and is slated to host the 2021 U.S. Open if that gives you any indication as to its quality. The two courses are vastly different with the North playing much easier than the difficult South.

Players will need to take advantage of their round on the North and survive the South in order to play on the weekend. The cut line is often around even or a few shots over par, though last year provided the lowest scores we'd seen in this event in years. Players that make the cut will play both weekend rounds on the South course and it can be brutal. It is long and mean, with thick rough. The South course will test every facet of a player's tee-to-green game. This will send me toward targeting players with complete games rather than a specific strength with an emphasis on golfers that have a history of performing well on tough courses.

 

The Horse

Jon Rahm (DraftKings - $11,300)

Notable Course History: T5 ('19), T29 ('18), Win ('17)

Lots of smart people are predicting a big year for Jon Rahm in 2020 and there's a good chance it starts right here at the Farmers. Rahm heads to Torrey Pines on a remarkable run of form, having won twice internationally during the fall season and logging a top-10 at the Sentry TOC despite losing 1.1 strokes putting. The Spaniard has been a beast in the Farmers, recording a win, a T5, and a T29 in three career starts.

It's the type of potent combination of current form and course history that we're always attempting to pinpoint in this article. Over his last 36 rounds, Rahm grades out top-five in this field in Strokes Gained: Total, Ball Striking, and Off the Tee, as well as DraftKings Points Scored. We all know that he's an explosive scorer, but Rahm also grades out eighth in the field in Bogeys Avoided - an aspect that shouldn't go overlooked this week. Outside of Rory McIlroy - who doesn't have the course history needed to make this week's list - Rahm grades out better for me statistically than anyone else in the Farmer's field.

 

The Ponies

Tiger Woods (DraftKings - $10,800)

Notable Course History: Eight Career Wins at Torrey Pines

Maybe they should change the name of this place to Tiger Pines? That’s how good Tiger Woods has been here throughout his legendary career. He has eight career victories at Torrey, including the unforgettable 2008 U.S. Open on what was basically a broken leg.

What’s so exciting is that Tiger’s inclusion here this week isn’t just due to sentimentality, as he is - as crazy as it sounds - currently in some of the best form of his career at 44-years-old. An offseason knee procedure appears to have rejuvenated Woods, as he won the ZOZO Championship in October and legitimately looked like the best player on the U.S. President’s Cup team last month.

 

Tony Finau (DraftKings - $9,300)

Notable Course History: T13 ('19), T6 ('18), T4 ('17), T18 ('16)

I’ve been a Tony Finau apologist for like three years now and it’s been a fun ride, as I’ve seen Finau go from a nobody to contending in majors and making Ryder & President’s Cup teams. However, it’s getting tougher and tougher to defend my guy’s inability to close, as another season passed without a win from Big Tony in 2019.

So, since I’ve stopped predicting wins for Finau, I’ll just say that this week sets up very nicely for my dude. He’s historically been a beast at Torrey and trails just Charles Howell III in Strokes Gained: Total in this event since 2015 at 38.6. He hasn’t finished outside the top-25 at the Farmers in his last five appearances with a T6 and a T4 thrown in for good measure. He played well at the American Express last week and he’s traditionally thrived at major-championship-type layouts that are long and difficult. As I mentioned a second ago, I don’t call Finau victories anymore, but I’m just sayin’...

 

Jason Day (DraftKing - $9,000)

Notable Course History: T13 ('19), T2 ('18), MC ('17), MC ('16), Win ('15)

Gotta mention Jason Day this week, so WELCOME TO THE UPSIDE DOWN! The dude has won twice here in the past five years for crying out loud! I don’t currently have any knowledge of back spasms, vertigo, knee issues, blurred vision, migraines, cracked fingernails, or a planned family trip that is going on with Day...but it is early in the week. If the Aussie does make it to his tee time, he could be dangerous in this event.

True to form, he’s been extremely tough to predict at the Farmers, as he sandwiched two missed cuts in between his wins and a T5 last year. He looked horrible in a missed cut at Mayakoba back in November and skipped the President’s Cup, so good luck trying to figure out where his game is at the moment. When we factor in the injury concerns, bad recent form, peaks-and-valleys course history, and the long layoff...we’re probably just a bout with the flu and a pro-am WD away from Jason Day playing great this week.

 

Ryan Palmer (DraftKings - $8,000)

Notable Course History: T13 ('19), T2 ('18)

Last seen banging a three-wood from a fairway bunker off a scoreboard in Hawaii (they're still looking for the ball), Ryan Palmer is on a legit heater! The Texan has ripped off four-straight finishes of 17th or better since October and logged a top-five in his most recent outing at the aforementioned Sony Open.

Palmer will bring that trending form to a Torrey setup that’s been very good to him over the last couple of years. He’s went T13-T2 in his last two Farmers starts and might go a bit overlooked in this week’s strong field. He’s averaged gaining a ridiculously-strong 5.3 strokes total over his last five tournaments.

 

Harris English (DraftKings - $7,400)

Notable Course History: MC ('19), T8 ('18), T14 ('17), T31 ('16), T2 ('15)

Harris English is a player that's been in my DFS orbit since the Swing Season when he went on an incredible run of four top-six finishes over six starts. After a bit of a layoff, I hopped back on him last week at the AmEx, where he looked rusty en route to an underwhelming T48.

English should have the rust knocked off as he heads to the Farmers this week and outside of a missed cut last year, he's played very well in previous trips to Torrey Pines, with three top-15 finishes in this event since 2015. It's fair to wonder if he's lost the mojo he had working in the fall, but English showcased his explosive scoring ability with a third-round 64 last week and he offers some legitimate upside at this price point.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Hello again friends and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! Young Aussie Cameron Smith emerged victorious at the Sony Open, besting Brendan Steele in a sudden-death playoff. The final round was a true slog, with wet conditions and extremely slow play being the order of the day. That said, it was still a nice win for Smith, a talented young player that we've had an eye on for the last couple of years.

We had some hits and misses from last week's article. Our Horse Webb Simpson was in the mix until the end, missing out on the playoff by one stroke and grabbing a solo third-place finish. The rest of our Ponies proved to be a mixed bag, with Brandt Snedeker and Russell Knox logging solid outings, while Justin Thomas and Kyle Stanley were slamming their trunks.

This week we head back to the continental United States for 2020's first event on the "mainland". Thanks for joining me, let's tee it up!

 

The American Express Overview

The Desert Classic. The CareerBuilder Challenge. The Humana Challenge. The Bob Hope...
Yes, this tournament has been known by many names over the years, but the event in the desert has managed to endure and find a new title sponsor in American Express that will hopefully bring some stability to the long-time celebrity pro-am. Phil Mickelson will make his 2020 debut this week and also act as "tournament host". He'll be joined by Adam Long, the journeyman that defeated him on the 72nd hole of this tournament last year. We'll also see some established stars like Rickie Fowler, Francesco Molinari, and Tony Finau teeing it up this week. This event is unique for several reasons, but perhaps the biggest difference for DFS purposes is that the cut will be made after THREE rounds rather than the usual two, after being played on THREE different courses. This allows us to lean towards an aggressive roster-building strategy.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: TPC Stadium Course at PGA West

Par 72 - 7,113 Yards, Greens: Bermuda
Players will also play rounds on the Nicklaus Tournament and La Quinta Country Club courses. The "main" course for the Desert Classic will be the TPC Stadium Course at PGA West. Players will face the Stadium Course once in the first three rounds and again in the final round if they make the 54-hole cut.

Frustratingly, Shotlink data is not available on the Nicklaus or La Quinta courses, which sort of has us flying blind from a DFS statistical perspective. The TPC is a Pete Dye design and in typical Dye fashion, there is tons of water and sand in play throughout the course.

The Stadium Course traditionally plays much tougher than the other two tracks in the rotation and players will face a difficult closing stretch that includes a 20-feet deep bunker on Hole 16, the infamous "Alcatraz hole" at 17, and a par-4 18th that is lined with water. The three-course rotation makes this a volatile tournament. I'm targeting strong ball strikers who I hope will gain strokes both off the tee and on approach this week. 10 of the last 11 Desert Classic winners have played at least one of the Hawaiian events, so I will lean toward players that have been active in the last two weeks. Also, keep an eye out for the tee time draws, as players that have to play the Stadium Course on day one normally have a much tougher time in this tournament.

 

The Horse

Charles Howell III (DK - $10,100)

Notable Course History: T34 ('19), T20 ('18), T12 ('17), T11 ('16)

Death, taxes, and Charles Howell III playing well at the start of every calendar year. These are life's great inevitabilities. Don't question it, just accept it and move on. Who knows why CH3 always plays so well at this time of year in Hawaii and California, but it's past the point of coincidence now.

True to form, Howell is coming off yet another solid outing at the Sony Open last week (a T12) and I see no reason why the run won't continue in California. Chucky is kinda like a scoop of vanilla statistically, nothing really pops or stands out, but it's pretty darn good overall. While there are some young and talented players in this week's field that we can definitely consider, we'll also have to weigh how they will handle the pro-am aspect of this event that turns rounds into hours-long slogs or how their games will translate across the three different courses in the rotation. We have no such questions to ponder with Howell (or the other veterans in this week's write-up), as he's repeatedly proven over the years that he can well handle all aspects of this event. As an added bonus in tournaments, I'm not sure how many DFS players will be willing to pull the trigger on CH3 at this big price tag.

 

The Ponies

Phil Mickelson (DK - $8,700)

Notable Course History: T2 ('19), MC ('18), T21 ('17), T3 ('16), T24 ('15)

Phil’s current form is anybody’s guess, as he hasn’t teed it up since the WGC-HSBC in early November. Mickelson seems more concerned with “hitting bombs” and crushing social media than actually winning golf tournaments at this point in his career - and he’s playing the “host” role at the AmEx this week - but it’s really hard to ignore his elite track record in this event.

‘Lefty’ almost took down this tournament last year, but ultimately fell to Adam Long on the 72nd hole. It was no fluke, as it was his second top-three finish in this event in the last four years and this is a tournament that he won multiple times in his prime. The 49-year-old proved that he still has some juice left by winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last season, which reinforces the idea that if he’s going to be competitive it will be in these more “relaxed” events that are held early in the year before the true grind of the PGA Tour schedule kicks in.

 

Brian Harman (DK - $8,600)

Notable Course History: MC ('19), T20 ('18), T3 ('17), T11 ('16)

Brian Harman made my Core Four last week (It’s a new article here at RotoBaller, you should check it out!) and he gets the HFTC nod this week. Harman was battling a slump at this time last year, so you will see several missed cuts in his 2019 history, but outside of what feels like an outlier performance in the desert last year, Harmon has been rock solid in this event.

In addition to the strong history in the AmEx, Harman heads to California in superb form. He faded a bit over the weekend at the Sony, but still gained strokes in every major category (outside of Around The Green) for the week. It was no outlier, as he’s averaged 1.9 Strokes Gained T2G over his last five combined tournaments.

 

Brendan Steele (DK - $7,500)

Notable Course History: T57 ('19), T20 ('18), T6 ('17), T34 ('16), T2 ('15)

Is it Brendan Steele SZN? Ok, that’s pretty gross when you say it out loud, but it’s hard to ignore Steele for a couple of reasons this week, as he’s coming off a huge outing at the Sony Open (though it did end rather badly) and has been remarkably consistent at the American Express over the years. Since 2015, the Californian has made the cut in this event every year - including last year when his game was COMPLETELY out of sorts - highlighted by a T2 in ‘15 and a T6 in ‘17.

Steele appeared primed for a career breakout after back-to-back wins at the Safeway Open in 2016 and 2017, but his game fell off a cliff in the summer of ‘18 and he’s been stuck in a horrible slump since. There had been some signs of life starting to show prior to his performance at the Sony, as Steele had averaged gaining strokes Tee to Green, Off the Tee, and on Approach over his last five combined tournament starts. We know that good play can often lead to more good play in this crazy game called golf and the veteran will be headed to a course where he’s always performed well with a boatload of new-found confidence.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Hello again friends and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! The season kicked off with a bang at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week, as Justin Thomas prevailed over Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed in a three-man playoff.

JT was this article's Horse last week, while one of our Ponies - Patrick Reed - was also in the playoff! I love it when a plan comes together!

This week we'll stay in Hawaii for the long-running Sony Open. It will be our first full-field event of 2020 and I'm really looking forward to the return of "normal tournaments" that include a 36-hole cut. Golf is BACK, let's dive in!

 

Sony Open Overview

Did you love watching primetime golf in Hawaii last week? If so, you are once again in for a treat this week, as we stay in paradise for the Sony Open. There's tons of great course history for us to dive into this week, as Waialae Country Club in Honolulu has hosted this event for many years, which gives us a very nice sample size to work with. A blistering-hot Matt Kuchar took down last year's Sony Open and he'll be back to defend on the heels of a so-so T14 outing at the Sentry. He'll be joined by a solid field that includes last week's winner - and 2017 Sony Open champ - Justin Thomas. We'll also see Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, and Collin Morikawa tee it up this week, which does give the Sony something of a "top heavy" feel...but we'll also find names that PGA-DFS regulars are familiar with as we work our way down the salary scale.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Waialae Country Club

Par 70 - 7,044 Yards, Greens: Bermuda
We get another beautiful Hawaiian golf course this week in Waialae Country Club, the long-time host of the Sony Open. It would be easy to lump this course in a similar bucket as last week's Kapalua layout, but that would be a huge mistake, as the courses are rather different. Waialae's fairways routinely rank as some of the toughest to hit on the PGA Tour (while Kapalua's fairways are hard to miss!), but missing these fairways isn't super penalizing, as player's will still find their ball in short grass more often than not. Waialae only has two Par 5s, but players racked up a massive 56 eagles here last year, which makes Par-5 scoring critical this week. Past winners here have hit fairways and greens consistently, while also taking advantage of the Par 5s.

 

The Horse

Webb Simpson (DK - $11,100)

Notable Course History: T4 ('18), T13 ('17), T13 ('16), T13 ('15)

The Webber!!! Poor guy had to spend the entire President's Cup with Patrick Reed, which I imagine is probably like being forced to hang out with your Mom's best friend's kid when you're a child. No matter how weird or how big of an ass that kid is, there you are, stuck with him while your moms drink wine and discuss taking up a yoga class together. Luckily, Simpson will be free of his "buddy" this week at the Sony. He's been ridiculously-consistent at Waialae Country Club, with a T4 and three T13s in four Sony starts since 2015.

Simpson is the type of player that's easy to sleep on. He doesn't hit it a mile or win a whole lot of tournaments, but he's produced remarkably-consistent, excellent results over the past few years. In 21 starts last season, Webb made 20 cuts and logged six top-10s en route to ranking third on the PGA Tour in Scoring Average at 69.377.

Despite being a fairly short hitter by today's standards, Webb finished ninth on the Tour in Total Eagles last year. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks fifth in this week's field in both Strokes Gained: Tee to Green & Approach. He's also looked sharp in limited starts this fall, scoring a T7, a runner-up, and a T10 in addition to seeing action at the President's Cup.

 

The Ponies

Justin Thomas (DK - $12,000)

Notable Course History: T16 ('19), T14 ('18), Win ('17), MC ('16), T6 ('15)

I highlighted JT in last week's HFTC and I'm not ashamed to keep riding the hot hand. Thomas has looked simply dominant since late summer, logging three wins and three top-fives since August.

While we normally might be reluctant to roster the previous week's winner, the opposite is true when it comes to JT, a player that can go on unbelievable hot streaks and has often collected wins in bunches throughout his career. In addition to the sicko form, we have to love his record at the Sony, a tournament that he won in 2017 - a week after winning the then SBS Tournament of Champions. Does any of this sound familiar?

His ball striking numbers are ridiculous, and he enters this week ranked first in the field in Strokes Gained: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, and Approach. It can sometimes be a stretch to roster a player with a $12k price tag, but this week with Thomas you are getting the unquestioned best player in the field and a golfer that is playing head and shoulders above everyone right now. If his putting is decent-to-good, he might just go back-to-back for the Hawaii Swing, just like he did in 2017.

 

Brandt Snedeker (DK - $8,600)

Notable Course History: T16 ('19), MC ('17), 2nd ('16)

Brandt Snedeker's super-solid course history certainly makes him HFTC worthy this week, as the Vandy product recorded a solo-second at Waialae in 2016 and a T16 last year. In addition to his track record at the Sony, I'm highlighting Sneds in large part due to the expected weather in Honolulu this week. With sustained winds of over 20mph and some rain expected throughout the tournament, I'm really intrigued by Sneds, a player that's roundly considered one of the best "bad weather" players in the world. Snedeker ranks second in the field in Scrambling Gained over his last 24 rounds - an aspect that could go overlooked by many this week.

 

Russell Knox (DK - $7,800)

Notable Course History: T43 ('19), T10 ('18), T11 ('17), MC ('16), T13 ('15)

Russell Knox is another player I don't mind having on my roster whenever the weather gets nasty. The veteran from Scotland has also traditionally fared well in the Sony Open. Knox heads to the 2020 edition in trending form, as he's ran off five-straight made cuts after since failing to make the weekend in his first start of the fall. Knox is averaging 5.3 Strokes Gained Total over his last five tournaments. He stands 23rd in the field in Good Drives Gained and fourth in GIRs Gained over his last 24 rounds, and his fairways-and-greens style puts him squarely in consideration as a sub-$8k option this week.

 

Kyle Stanley (DK - $7,000)

Notable Course History: T22 ('19), T10 ('18), T36 ('17), T13 ('16)

Sometimes course history can take us to some funky places and that's where we are with Kyle Stanley this week. Stanley had an absolutely miserable 2018-19 season, making just 16 of 25 cuts, while ranking 161st in SG: Putting. Stanley has shown a bit of life this fall, especially with his irons, as he's gained over four strokes on approach in four of his last five starts. Waialae is a true "get right" spot for Stanley, as he's went 4/4 in the Sony since 2016 with a top-10 and two top-25s. I wouldn't let him anywhere near cash lineups, but he's an intriguing GPP option this week.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

If you would've told me a year ago that Brendon Todd would win back-to-back PGA Tour events this fall...first I would've laughed at you and then I would've told you how crazy you were! However, we all know that golf is the most fickle mistress there is in the world of sports, and sure enough, Todd claimed the victory at Mayakoba last week for his second-straight win on the PGA Tour. It is pretty remarkable that a guy that battled the honest-to-God-full-swing yips could even get back on the Tour, much less win again. So, nothing but tons of respect for Todd.

While it was cool to see Todd continue his remarkable comeback, he did slightly kill this article's Horse along the way, as Harris English played tremendous golf throughout the week, but fell apart during the Monday morning finish. English was our best performing player, but outside of an outlier poor performance from Viktor Hovland, every player listed in last week's article made the cut. It's good to be back! Unfortunately, we only have one week left to do a proper "heat check"!

This will be the last edition of HFTC for a while, as the PGA Tour heads into the holiday break. I'd like to take a quick minute to thank all of you that have supported this article from the start and make it part of your weekly PGA DFS research. 'Horse For The Course' will be back each and every week when the PGA Tour schedule amps back up in January and the RotoBaller PGA staff has some interesting new things that we are working on and hope to introduce for the 2020 season! I'm really pumped for what we have in store for you guys next year, so make sure and stay connected during the break via my personal Twitter account @JoeNicely or the official RotoBaller PGA account! Ok, with that out of the way, let's dig into the RSM Classic. This will be our last tournament for a while, so let's make it count!

 

RSM Classic Overview

It's a bittersweet feeling as the fall portion of the 2019-20 season comes to an end at this week's RSM Classic. There isn't much star power headed to Sea Island this week, but last year's RSM winner Charles Howell III will be back to defend his title. CH3 will be joined by some familiar faces that were in Mayakoba last week, with Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Scottie Scheffler, and Billy Horschel just some of the guys that will travel from Mexico to Georgia. The "best" player in the field is Webb Simpson, though he's only teed it up once since the TOUR Championship.

We've seen a lot of first-time PGA Tour winners in this event, but you'll also notice that the RSM has a "hometown-flavor field", with lots of guys that live in or have ties to the Sea Island area. That's a narrative that will get lots of run around the DFS industry this week, so I won't spend a ton of time on it here. Enough talking, for the last time in 2019, LET'S TEE IT UP!!!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course & Plantation Course)

Par 70 - 7,005 Yards, Greens: Bermuda (TifDwarf)
We're thrown a little curveball this week, as every player in the field will play two courses (Seaside & Plantation) in the first two rounds. To complicate matters even further, Davis Love III just recently completed a fairly extensive renovation on the Plantation Course. We'll focus on the Seaside Course here, because it's the layout that those players that make the cut will be playing on the weekend...I described Mayakoba last week as a "plodder's course" and that's also a pretty apt label for the RSM this week, as the bombers will take a back seat at Sea Island. We'll see a lot of less-than-driver holes and we should place a premium on accurate and precise ball striking, as well as course management. For that reason, I'll be targeting similar traits as last week...driving accuracy, greens in regulation, and consistent ball striking, while also glancing at putting splits on Bermuda greens.

 

The Horse

Billy Horschel (DK - $11,000)

Notable Course History: T2 ('17)

It feels fair to call Webb Simpson the "best" player in this week's field, but Billy Horschel is certainly one of the "hottest" golfers that will be teeing it up on Sea Island. Billy Ho heads to Georgia in sharp form, having logged two top-10s and a top-25 over his last three starts, and he's fresh off a T8 at Mayakoba last week.

Horschel doesn't have an extensive history in the RSM, but recorded a runner-up finish in his only appearance in the last five years. He's one of the streakiest players on the PGA Tour and can run extremely hot and cold. Obviously, his inconsistent tendencies are a little scary at this big $11k price tag, but if I'm ever going to roll the dice on Horschel it's gonna be when he's in the midst of a heater.

He's gonna grade out ho-hum statistically if you dig into his numbers, but Horschel is kinda like Patrick Reed in that he has always been very capable of outperforming his stats and winning golf tournaments. His putting can be otherworldly at times and he has three career wins on Bermuda greens. My favorite spend-up options are Webb and Billy, and I'd rather lean in the direction of the guy that's been playing frequently.

 

The Ponies

Harris English (DK - $10,000)

Notable Course History: T46 ('19), M/C ('18), M/C ('17)

Those of you that read last week's article know that I was "All In" on Harris English at Mayakoba. While I don't feel as strongly this week, I'm willing to stay on this train.

I haven't quite decided what DFS players are going to do with English this week, so I'm kinda just thinking out loud here...English hasn't played very well at Sea Island in the past and he's received a fairly significant $2,000 price bump this week. He's also sandwiched between two RSM 'course horses' in Charles Howell III and Kevin Kisner, players that should be popular in this spot. So...do all those factors contribute to him going underowned this week?

I'm not sure yet, but I will definitely keep a close eye on his ownership projections over at Fantasy National as the week progresses. If it looks as though people are jumping ship on English, I won't hesitate to load up on a player that's notched an incredible four top-10 finishes in his five starts this fall.

 

Brian Gay (DK - $8,800)

Notable Course History: T23 ('19), 3rd ('18), M/C ('17)

Brian Gay didn't make last week's write up, but he's a player that I gravitated toward as the week progressed and ended up in a couple of my DK lineups. Gay performed well in Mexico, going 69-65 in his final two rounds to surge into a top-15 finish. It was yet another solid outing in what's been a strong fall season for the veteran, as he also has a top-five and a top-10 across six swing season starts. In addition to his sharp form, Gay has traditionally played well at Sea Island, a course that fits his plain-jane-fairways-and-greens style very well. I always hate to factor in putting too much, but he's been consistently good on Bermuda throughout his career. As with several players this week, his DFS price tag is a little gross, but that's just the way it goes in fields like these.

 

Lanto Griffin (DK - $8,000)

Notable Course History: M/C ('18)

Speaking of pricing...in a field where quality players have been saddled with bloated price tags, Lanto Griffin's salary has actually decreased by $1,000 since last week. I get that he didn't play well at Mayakoba, but Griffin has pretty much owned the fall season...recording a win at the Houston Open and making seven of seven cuts with five top-20s. The Korn Ferry Tour graduate heads to Georgia ranked seventh in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green over his last 24 rounds and is solid in all aspects that we're targeting this week, yet is the 22nd-highest-priced player on DraftKings. I'm kinda blown away by his price tag and feel like this is a tremendous opportunity to "buy low" on Lanto.

 

Robby Shelton (DK - $7,300)

Notable Course History: None

I've noticed a theme in this week's article...trending form. I didn't purposefully set out with that in mind this week, but I honestly never know where this article is gonna take me. Robby Shelton is a Korn Ferry Tour graduate that's had some some measure of success during the fall season. Shelton has made five of seven cuts since September with two top-10s, including a T6 in Mexico last week. He's no doubt a volatile player, so I wouldn't go penciling him in to your cash lineups, but I am intrigued by his upside at this price. Another underlying factor - that admittedly might be a stretch - is that he recorded two top-three finishes on this Seaside layout at the SEC Championships while playing at the University of Alabama (FYI: Matthew NeSmith at $6.3k is another player that feasted on this course in college). It's a little thin sure, but he does have some experience (and success) on this course, though it was as an amateur. Shelton is a boom-or-bust GPP play that could log a top-five or miss the cut, but if we're trying to win a large-field PGA DFS tournament, he's exactly the type of "good volatility" that we must be willing to embrace.

 

Bo Hoag (DK - $6,700)

Notable Course History: None

Let's round out this week's article (and 2019) with a salary saver. At $6.7k, Bo Hoag is a player that should probably be on your sub-$7k radar this week. Hoag is another PGA Tour rookie that has been under-the-radar solid this fall. He's made six of seven cuts and heads to Sea Island on the heels of back-to-back top-20 finishes at Mayakoba and Bermuda. He doesn't have any RSM history, but he's a nice fit on paper, as he stands fourth in the field in Good Drives Gained and sixth in Greens In Regulation Gained over his last 24 rounds. Hoag has impressively gained over 7.5 strokes total in each of his last two starts and is an intriguing value option when rounding out GPP lineups or mass-multi entering this week.

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Hey guys, welcome back to 'Horse For The Course'! I hope you all enjoyed the short break, I know it was much needed for me, as I really struggled with the Asian Swing portion of the schedule. It sounds crazy, but I had back-to-back weeks with players withdrawing in no-cut events, which is ridiculous! That's just the type of run it was...and is just an example of the type of swings we can experience in PGA DFS!

Ok, enough about the bad luck. The PGA Tour is heading back to this side of the globe, as we travel down Mexico way for the Mayakoba Classic. And guess what? There's a cut! Of course, a cut brings its own set of challenges, but I'm eager to get back to the feel of a "normal" golf tournament. Thanks for joining me again here at RotoBaller, let's take a look at this week's event!

 

Mayakoba Classic Overview

The Mayakoba Classic has become somewhat infamous over the past 12 months due to the controversy surrounding last year's winner Matt Kuchar and his payment (or non-payment) to fill-in caddie, David "El Tucan" Ortiz, the local looper who was on the bag when Kuch took down the title last year. I'm not going to dive into that can of worms here, but let's just say that things will probably be pretty uncomfortable for the defending champ this week.

In addition to Kuchar, we have some team members of the upcoming President Cup that will be in attendance this week. Jason Day and Tony Finau are perhaps the most notable stars in this field, but they'll also be joined by young 'Prez Cuppers' Joaquin Niemann and Mexico-native Abraham Ancer.

Overall, this is a fairly "run-of-the-mill" swing season field, with a couple of elite players mixed in with some solid pros and PGA Tour rookies. As I mentioned (happily) in the intro, we are back to a 36-hole cut this week and will want to keep the dynamics of the PGA Tour's new cut rule in mind, as 6/6 lineups have been hard to come by in the fall swing. Enough chatter, golf is back! Let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: El Camaleon Golf Club

Par 71 - 6,987 Yards, Greens: Paspalum
If Matt Kuchar's win last year isn't a good enough indicator, let me be clear: this is a plodders golf course. Yes, players can go low here, but they will need to consistently hit fairways and greens to do it. A 2006 Greg Norman design, El Camaleon is a unique course that takes advantage of a beautiful and interesting natural landscape. It is perhaps most famous for its "sinkholes" that can give golfers fits. This is a short course by modern standards, but not one that can be easily overpowered. Accuracy off the tee is crucial and we will see lots of players hitting less than driver this week. Ball striking will also be at a premium at El Camaleon in order to find fairways and greens in what is typically windy coastline conditions. A hot putter never hurts and that is again the case this week on a Seashore Paspalum putting surface that we basically never see on the PGA Tour. I'll be targeting accurate ball strikers who are capable of working their way around this course with precision and getting in a groove with the flatstick.

 

The Horse

Harris English (DK - $8,000)

Notable Course History: T68 ('19), M/C ('18-'16), Win ('14)

There are some heavy hitters in the Mayakoba field, but my favorite dollar-for-dollar play on the board is Harris English. English was a rising star once upon a time, and won this tournament back in 2014 for what was supposed to be the first of many victories for him, but he's struggled over the last few years. After picking his play up enough at the end of the 2018-19 season to keep his PGA Tour card, English has come out of the gates firing in the new season, logging three top-six finishes in his four fall starts.

His sudden surge can be tied directly to his vastly improved ball striking. English heads to Mexico tied for first in the field in both Good Drives Gained and Greens In Regulation Gained over his last 12 rounds, both of which are keys to success on this El Camaleon layout. Another important factor on this course is the ability to score on the Par-4s, an area where English excels and ranks tied for first in the field in Strokes Gained: Par 4s over his last 12 rounds.

At just $8k, English feels almost criminally underpriced. This is a player with tournament-winning upside that comes in as the 23rd-highest-priced option on DraftKings! Listen, it's golf and English unfortunately hasn't teed it up in a month, so anything can happen...but he's playing his best golf in years and is headed to a course that he's won on previously and fits his game perfectly. English is a no-brainer for me this week.

 

The Ponies

Viktor Hovland (DK - $11,200)

Notable Course History: M/C ('19)

Those of you that read this article regularly are probably well aware of my affinity for Viktor Hovland (because he's AWESOME), so I'm not gonna spend a ton of time on him here. I'll just say that on a week where there's lots of quality available in the mid-range on DK, Hovland is without a doubt my favorite "spend up" option.

The young star showed us that he is indeed human by firing *GASP* three rounds over 70 in his two starts on the Asia Swing, which ended his PGA Tour-record streak of 19 consecutive sub-70 rounds. Will the combination of Hovland's relatively-middling results in Asia and his high price tag make DFS players a bit cool on him this week? As I write this, I'm not sure of where his projected ownership is, but I'll be keeping an eye on it as the week progresses and won't hesitate to be very overweight if it looks as though he'll be underowned. Hovland missed the cut as an amateur at Mayakoba last year, despite making 10 birdies in his two rounds. Though he's only been on Tour for a very short time, he's already a much more polished player than he was at this time last year and I expect that small bit of exposure to this layout to help him this week.

 

Charles Howell III (DK - $9,600)

Notable Course History: M/C ('19), T4 ('18), T7 ('17)

Rostering Charles Howell III on DraftKings always feels like ordering a scoop of vanilla at an ice cream parlor that has 100 flavors. Rostering him at $9,600 makes it feel like you're paying 20 bucks for that scoop of vanilla. That said, this is a golf course where "vanilla" routinely works very well and CH3 is hard to ignore this week. He's been strong since the new season kicked off, logging a top-five finish at the Safeway Open in September, in addition to mixing in a top-20 and a top-10 over three starts during the recent Asia Swing. He has three top-10s and four top-20s in 10 career starts at Mayakoba, which makes for an undeniable blend of recent form and course history. It always feels like we're sacrificing some win equity when rostering Chuckie, but it's tough to argue that he's not a sharp play this week. Getting CH3 in your lineups won't win you any style points, but it should once again be very effective at Mayakoba.

 

Denny McCarthy, Danny Lee & J.T. Poston (DK - $8,400, $8,300 & $8,200)

Notable Course History: McCarthy - T41, T68 ('19-'18); Lee - 2nd, T25 ('19-'18); Poston - T21, T14 ('19-'18)

We've only very briefly ever touched on 'player blocks' in this article, but this trio of players presents those of you that are making multiple lineups this week with a unique opportunity to lock up a nice core for around $25k in salary. All three head to Mayakoba in sharp form with Lee coming off a runner-up finish and a top-10 on the Asia Swing and also owning the best course history of the three. McCarthy was first on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting last season and is tied for the lead in this week's field in SG: Par 4s over his last 12 rounds. Poston tasted victory for the first time a few months ago at the Wyndham, owns consistent course history, and has been rock-solid during the fall season. You can stack these three together and have a very comfortable average of around $8.3k/per player for your remaining three roster spots, which allows you to do some do some interesting things when entering multiple lineups. Individually, I would rank them: 1. Poston, 2. McCarthy, 3. Lee...if you want to pick and choose rather than play them all together.

 

Cameron Tringale (DK - $7,400)

Notable Course History: T25 ('18), T46 ('17)

Cameron Tringale is sort of a 'Charles Howell III-Lite'. He doesn't really knock your socks off or get you pumped when you roster him, but like CH3, he is just a very solid, quality player. This week, it feels as though we are getting a lot of bang for our buck with Tringale at just $7.4k, especially if we consider that he was priced at $8.7k the last time he teed it up at the Houston Open, where he logged a T13. Tringale's course history is mediocre-at-best, but like the aforementioned Harris English, he's currently playing at a higher level than he has in years. He's a great fit for this layout on paper, as he stands eighth in the field in Good Drives Gained and 26th in GIR's Gained over his last 12 rounds, while standing 11th in Birdies Gained and fifth in Bogeys Avoided. At $7.4k, we're getting a consistent performer that's 4/4 in made cuts this fall with two top-16 outings in those starts.

 

Brandon Wu (DK - $6,800)

Notable Course History: None

As you can see throughout this week's article, I'm definitely leaning toward players with prior Mayakoba experience. However, I'm willing to buck that trend (at least in GPPs) with young Brandon Wu. Wu is a less-heralded member of the Hovland/Morikawa/Wolff crop of collegians, but don't let the lack of hype fool you, the kid is talented. Wu opted to finish school rather than turn pro last season, and he led Stanford to an NCAA title and the U.S. team to a Walker Cup win before turning pro. The 22-year-old logged a T35 at the U.S. Open as an amateur and flirted with a top-10 finish in his professional debut in windy conditions at the Houston Open last month. Obviously the statistical sample size is small, so we're forced to take a little leap of faith here, but Wu is a player that relies on precision and accuracy both off the tee and on approach...a style of play that's a recipe for success at Mayakoba. I also like how he's handled playing in the wind, which can always be a factor at El Camaleon. He's a 'GPP Only' play, but I feel like this might be the cheapest we see Brandon Wu priced this season. I understand if you want to take a 'wait and see approach' here, but I'm never scared to jump on these young guys early.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Welcome back RotoBallers and PGA DFS fans! Last week's 'Horse' Justin Thomas came away with the win at the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges. It's always a great feeling when we can nail a winner here for you guys! In addition to Thomas, we also highlighted Cam Smith who scored a T3 finish at Nine Bridges.

JT wasn't exactly a "going out on a limb" choice last week, as he headed into the week with the type of trending form/course history combination that we're always looking to target in this article. Still, it's always nice to be on the winner and - as we so well know - being the highest-priced player on DraftKings offers no guarantee of victory, and I think the win speaks volumes about the type of motivation and drive that Thomas is playing with at the moment.

Unfortunately, the rest of last week's featured players didn't fare as well as JT and Smith at the CJ Cup. It's a good reminder that although these are 'official' PGA Tour events, tournaments like the CJ Cup are tough to get right from a DFS perspective due to their international locations, slot on the calendar, and no-cut formats. We get exactly that type of tournament again this week for the second leg of the 'Asia Swing' in the ZOZO Championship. Let's dive in!

 

ZOZO Championship Overview

Golf has been extremely popular for years in Japan and this week the PGA Tour will hold its first-ever official event in the country. The ZOZO Championship should be a great introduction to the PGA Tour for Japan, as the tournament has a field that is truly star-studded.

Tiger Woods will be making his first start since his season ended in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He'll be joined by some of the games biggest stars, with last week's winner Justin Thomas, recent FedEx Cup champion Rory McIlroy, and hometown favorite Hideki Matsuyama all scheduled to tee it up in the Zozo Championship. We'll also get to see stars like Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth giving it a go in Japan.

Like last week's CJ Cup, this event is almost a 'WGC-Lite' tournament...there's a limited field of 78 (with 10 players from the Japan Tour included) and no cut, which means a nice paycheck for everyone teeing it up. Similar to last week, we can lean more aggressive in our DFS lineup construction with four rounds being guaranteed for everyone. Unlike last week, we have no course history to evaluate, which forces us to make some guesses and assumptions about how this course will play.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club

Par 70 - 7,041 Yards, Greens: Bent
Opened in 1965, Narashino is one of the most highly-regarded golf clubs in Japan. Fairly short by modern standards at just over 7,000 yards, this is a fairly tight, tree-lined layout that's popular throughout Japan. Players will face multiple doglegs and water hazards when making the loop, while fairway and greenside bunkers offer some protection for this shortish course. With the doglegs and tight conditions, we will see lots of players hitting irons off the tee this week, which basically takes distance out of the equation for me for DFS purposes. The greens are bentgrass and some of these holes even have two greens (!) in order to give tournament officials some options when setting up the course each round...which is not something we see every day. In the absence of course history, I like to lean in the direction of strong ball strikers that are solid tee to green. This week's layout should demand accuracy and precision both off the tee and on approach shots, which puts players that consistently hit fairways and greens in my sights. I will probably be focusing on putting a bit more than usual this week, as the greens have some tricky undulations.

 

The Horse

Hideki Matsuyama (DK - $10,700)

Notable Course History: None

Like last week's 'Horse' Justin Thomas, going with Hideki Matsuyama here isn't exactly a wild and crazy choice, but hey...sometimes using a little common sense, makes a lot of sense. We of course have the 'homegrown Japanese player' narrative in full force with Hideki this week, but that's honestly not why I like him so much here (if anything, I feel like 'hometown' situations only add pressure - ie. Rory at the Open). No, my interest in Matsuyama is due to his trending form and what should be a great course fit.

The Japanese superstar has gotten progressively better with each start this fall, going from a missed cut in his first 'Swing Season' start at the Safeway, to a T16 outing at the Shriners, that led up to a strong T3 result at Nine Bridges last week. Matuyama is third in the ZOZO field in GIR's over his last 12 rounds and routinely grades out as one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour year after year.

I'm torn with how folks will roster Hideki this week...I think a lot of people will want to roster him, because this event is in Japan, but I also feel like his $10,700 price tag will give many of those players pause. The knock on Matsuyama is that he doesn't win enough - and it's a fair take - but this is lining up almost as a storybook-type spot for Hideki to grab his first win in a long time.

 

The Ponies

Justin Thomas (DK - $11,800)

Notable Course History: None

It seems like the popular current thinking in PGA DFS is: "Never play a guy the week after a win." While I don't totally disagree with that line, it definitely isn't set in stone and is something that we can sometimes use to our advantage. So, while most people will completely ignore Justin Thomas because he won at Nine Bridges, I'm totally comfortable going right back to the well on a guy that is probably the hottest player in the world right now.

Thomas leads this elite field in Strokes Gained: Total over his last 12 rounds and has the type of game that translates well to any course. We've seen him go on winning binges before (often around this late-summer/early-fall time of year) during his career, with him winning multiple times in a one to three month span, including back-to-back victories at the 2017 Tournament of Champions and Sony Open. So...under normal circumstances I'm totally fine ignoring the guy that won the previous week, but I'm eager to get JT in my lineups once again in this spot.

 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK - $9,000)

Notable Course History: None

The young Englishman hasn't been highlighted many times in the history of HFTC, but I really like this spot for Matthew Fitzpatrick. He made a little noise on the PGA Tour last season with strong outings at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the WGC-St. Jude, but Fitz has always played better when off U.S. soil. American fans might not realize it, but the 25-year-old already has five victories on the European Tour in his young career and has especially flourished in Asia, logging two top-10s at the HSBC Champions event that's held in China and a runner-up finish in last year's Hong Kong Open. Fitzpatrick heads to Japan on the heels of a runner-up outing at the Italian Open two weeks ago and profiles to be a nice course fit on a week where distance should take a back seat to precision, accuracy, and scrambling ability - the hallmarks of his game. Low ownership on Fitz is almost a guarantee with his "too high at first glance" $9k price tag, which makes him an intriguing contrarian play in GPPs this week.

 

Adam Hadwin (DK - $8,100)

Notable Course History: None

I expect Adam Hadwin to be a popular play this week, but his recent form is almost impossible to ignore. The Canadian has recorded top-five finishes in both of his fall starts at the Safeway and Shriners. He should be a great fit on this tight-ish layout, as he stands first in this week's field in Fantasy National's Good Drives Gained metric and second in GIRs Gained over his last 12 rounds. He brings both hot irons and a hot putter to Japan, ranking seventh in SG: Putting and Three-Putt Avoidance, while gaining strokes on the greens in his last four starts. If his ownership projections get too high, you can consider a calculated fade in large-field GPPs, but he should be a staple in cash-game lineups this week with his current form and affordable price.

 

Ryan Moore (DK - $7,800)

Notable Course History: None

Fair warning here: I never seem to get Ryan Moore right, so I'm never extremely comfortable when recommending him, but I really like how he lines up for Narashino CC this week. We know he's a precise ball striker and the numbers bear that out: first in in the field in Fairways Gained, ninth in Good Drives Gained, and 11th in SG: Approach. Like the aforementioned Matthew Fitzpatrick, Moore's game has translated well to this part of the world, as he's twice won the CIMB Classic in Malaysia. We're always a bit concerned about Moore's lack of putting skills, but three of his five professional victories have come on Bentgrass greens and he's putted well in his last two starts which have resulted in a T13 at the Shriners and a top-10 last week at Nine Bridges. There's a chance Moore could go a bit overlooked at $7.8k, as lots of players will be leaning towards 'Stars & Scrubs' roster builds this week.

 

Andrew Putnam (DK - $7,400)

Notable Course History: None

He's not flashy, but Andrew Putnam might just be my favorite dollar-for-dollar play on the board this week. He heads to Japan fresh off top-20 finishes in his last two starts, while just missing that mark with a T21 at the BMW PGA Championship in Europe in September. Putnam is a tremendous putter and ranks fourth in this field in SG: Putting over his last 12 rounds. He's also incredibly accurate off the tee and stands ninth in Fairways Gained, as well as gaining 1.2 strokes on approach over his last five tournaments. Like I said, he's not necessarily an exciting player to roster...but fairways, greens, and a hot putter will take us places this week.

 

Graeme McDowell (DK - $6,800)

Notable Course History: None

We're going to round things out down in the sub-$7k price range with Graeme McDowell, another player that might not get our blood pumping, but one that has a chance to play very well at Narashino. I had some success with G-Mac last season, but I'm the first to admit that he's streaky and often tough to peg...however I think we are catching the Ulsterman trending in the right direction this week. His ball striking numbers from his last two starts at the Italian Open and CJ Cup won't show up in stat engines (so his recent numbers look pretty damn bad), but McDowell has played well his last couple of times out, finishing inside the top 16 at both Olgiata and Nine Bridges. If you want to get aggressive at the top of the salary scale this week with a JT, Rory, or Hideki; you'll probably need to dip down to a couple of players in this price range and G-Mac should fly under the radar heading into the ZOZO.

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Welcome back RotoBallers and PGA DFS fans! We expected big things from the strong field that turned up for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, and the tournament didn't disappoint, as we got a drama filled playoff between two former Shriners champs - Kevin Na and Patrick Cantlay.

Despite actually losing strokes tee-to-green for the week, Na couldn't miss with the putter and eventually prevailed over young Cantlay on the second-playoff hole. After going almost seven years between wins on the PGA Tour, the mercurial Na has now won three times in the span of 16 months, despite battling injuries and withdrawing from multiple tournaments over the past year. For Cantlay - this article's 'Horse' last week - it was an impressive, but expected showing. The 27-year-old continues to prove that he is one of the best young players on the PGA Tour and that he's someone that deserves DFS consideration basically every time he tees it up.

From a DFS perspective, the Shriners was a brutal one for me personally, as the PGA Tour's new T65 and ties cut rule continues to have a huge effect on the DFS world. While it can be frustrating, I actually kinda like the change. I've always enjoyed when getting 6/6 golfers through is an accomplishment and can truly give you a leg up on the field for the weekend. Ok, enough about the Shriners, let's keep grindin' and dig into the upcoming Houston Open!

 

Houston Open Overview

After consecutive weeks of unbelievably-strong 'Swing Season' fields, we kinda come crashing back down to Earth for this week's Houston Open. The field is...less than stellar. Sweden's Henrik Stenson is the most well-known name in the field. 'The Iceman' will be joined by some recent PGA Tour winners like Cameron Champ and Sebastian Munoz, as well as several guys with Texas ties and some former winners of this event. That's about it guys, no way to sugarcoat it.

The Houston Open has traditionally been a warm-up for the Masters, but has been on an 18-month hiatus since the PGA Tour revamped the schedule and settled on a fall date for the tournament. The new spot on the schedule obviously hasn't helped when it comes to attracting big names to Texas, as many of golf's elite are gearing up for the looming 'Asia Swing' portion of the fall. Ian Poulter won this event the last time it was played seemingly forever ago, but Poults decided not to venture back to the Lonestar State for this one, which is sort of a typical Poulter-esque move, considering this tournament gave him a springboard into the Masters a couple of years ago.

After several weeks of some truly fun roster building, things will be noticeably more challenging when constructing lineups this week due to the caliber of the Houston field. My write-up this week will reflect that, as I will be "quick-hitting" a few more players than usual, rather than going in-depth on just a small number of guys. The quality of this field (and the pricing) sends me in a "throw multiple lineups in some GPPs" direction rather than my usual focus on higher dollar single entry or small field stuff. Ok, let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Golf Club of Houston (Tournament Course)

Par 72 - 7,441 Yards, Greens: Bermuda
Normally a tune-up for the Masters, this will mark the first time we see the Golf Club of Houston in the fall. We can expect to see a few differences as a result, the greatest being the change in the putting surface on these greens. Normally overseeded with Bentgrass, this year players will face greens that are strictly Bermuda with no overseed. Another change that we can't be as sure about is the length of the (usually) non-existent rough. This golf course has generally been set up to mimic the conditions at Augusta National, hence the minimal rough, but there are some rumblings coming out of Houston that the rough will have more teeth this year. This track is pretty 'ho-hum' in general, but does feature water on half the holes which can bring some big-ish numbers into play. For DFS purposes I'll be targeting ball strikers that hit fairways and greens. I'll also give weight to scrambling around the green and putting splits on Bermuda surfaces.

 

The Horse

Henrik Stenson (DK - $11,400)

Notable Course History: T6 ('18), M/C ('17), 2nd ('16)

You will probably come across a mixed bag of takes from the DFS community about the viability of rostering Stenson this week, but make no mistake, the Swede is the class of this field and it's not particularly close. Stenson spent the better part of the 2018-19 season as the best iron player in the world and heads to Houston ranked first in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over both long and short term measurements. He's a fairway-finding machine and stands second in the field in Fairways Gained over his last 24 rounds. Of course, the big obstacle to rostering Stenson this week is the combination of his huge price and the lack of quality on the bottom of the board, but - like Patrick Cantlay in Vegas last week - there is a huge common-sense path to him either winning this event or posting a top-five finish. If we want to take a "narrative" approach to this, we have to think that Stenson chose to play this event for a reason and he must feel like he has a pretty good chance to win on this track after coming close in two of his last three Houston Open appearances.

 

The Ponies

Russell Henley (DK - $10,100)

Notable Course History: T8 ('18), Win ('17), T5 ('16), 4th ('15)

If you don't want to spend all the way up for Henrik Stenson, there are lots of solid options in the $10k price range with Brian Harman, Daniel Berger, and Russell Henley all being standouts. I'm gonna lean Henley here due to his pretty otherworldly course history at the Golf Club of Houston. However, it's not purely a course history play, as Henley showed some trending form in Vegas last week by firing four sub-70 rounds and gaining a massive 7.1 strokes on approach at the Shriners. If he can bring that iron play with him this week to a course that he loves, he could very easily be in contention come Sunday afternoon. I was originally a little scared about how the switch to Bermuda-grass greens would impact Henley, but his best putting numbers have actually been on Bermuda.

 

Harris English (DK - $8,900)

Notable Course History: M/C ('18), T61 ('17), T57 ('16)

Harris English is basically the polar opposite of Russell Henley when it comes to course history, as his best finish in this tournament was a T17 way back in 2012. I'm willing to overlook his shaky track record here this week because of his strong recent form. English is playing his best golf in years and has been on a tear during the 'Swing Season' with a top-five, a top-10, and a top-35 in his three fall starts. The most noticeable reason for his turnaround is his dramatically improved ball striking. English has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in all three of his starts in the new season and is averaging 5.7 strokes gained tee to green over those tournaments. As a bonus, he has performed much better on Bermuda greens and should be one player in the field that is positively impacted by the switch from Bent.

 

Xinjun Zhang (DK - $8,000)

Notable Course History: M/C ('18)

This $8k range is going to be a popular price point this week with guys like Sam Ryder, Cameron Tringale, Luke List, and Bronson Burgoon garnering lots of attention. I was torn between Lanto Griffin and Xinjun Zhang here at $8k, but ultimately gave the tiniest of edges to Zhang due to his better ball striking (Griffin is a much better putter). The 31-year-old from China nabbed two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier this year and has been sharp in his last two starts on the PGA Tour, gaining over seven strokes T2G at both the Safeway and the Shriners en route to strong finishes. His putting is a slight concern, but we're getting a player that grades-out fourth in the field in SG: T2G and top-12 in both SG: OTT and Approach over his last 12 rounds.

 

Tom Hoge (DK - $7,400)

Notable Course History: T60 ('18), T65 ('17)

The $7k range is pretty much a barren wasteland this week with not a lot that jumps out at me. It's tempting to try and catch lightning in a bottle with a Jhonattan Vegas, Andrew Landry, or Matt Every (guys we know have the ability to top-10 an event when on), but I find myself settling in with Tom Hoge at $7.4k. His course history isn't anything fancy - three made cuts in three starts with nothing better than a T60 - but we will take a made cut at $7.4k in this field. Hoge popped for a runner-up finish at the Greenbrier last month and followed that with another solid outing at the Sanderson before missing the cut at the Safeway. He's gained strokes T2G in his last three and on approach in two of three. Hoge is by no means a good putter, but Bermuda is his least worst surface.

 

Shawn Stefani (DK - $6,800)

Notable Course History: T24 ('18), M/C ('17), M/C ('16), T25 ('15), 5th ('14)

Shawn Stefani is a player that I've been keeping my eye on for the last several months. I was encouraged by his strong finish to the 2018-19 season and I've dabbled with him in his two fall starts with mixed results, as he missed the cut at the Greenbrier, but managed a T28 at Sanderson Farms. His irons aren't quite there yet, but his previous results in this event are intriguing. Stefani has made three cuts in his last five Houston starts, but all three of those made cuts resulted in top-25s or better. So, he's a little 'boom or bust' and is more of gut call for me than a statistical one, but his sub-$7k price tag feels like a nice value in this weak field.

 

Zach Sucher (DK - $6,600)

Notable Course History: None

In a week with heavily inflated pricing on mediocre players, Zach Sucher stands out as extremely underpriced to me. The sample size is small, but we have to love what we've seen from Sucher in his two 'Swing Season' starts...top-25s at both the Greenbrier and Sanderson Farms. If we narrow our target range down to the last 12 rounds, Sucher actually LEADS this field in SG: T2G, while grading out sixth in SG: OTT and 13th in Approach. This will be his Houston Open debut, so we don't have any course history to rely on, but we're getting a high-quality ball striker at a bargain-basement price. Sucher opens up lots of flexibility when constructing rosters and sticks out as a nice option to pair with Henrik Stenson in GPP builds.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

We have seen some emotional moments on the PGA Tour in the past, but Cameron Champ's victory at the Safeway Open was one for the books. Champ was dominant throughout, but needed to birdie the 72nd hole to avoid a playoff with Adam Hadwin. The young phenom came through to finish a shot clear of Hadwin and capture the second PGA Tour win of his career. The youngster was playing with a heavy heart, as his grandfather Mack is in hospice care just 60 miles from the site of the Safeway, which forced Champ to commute throughout the week.

We had high hopes for the Safeway due to the surprising strength of the field and it didn't disappoint. I was surprised by just how great a test the Silverado layout was for these guys and I can definitely understand why the property owner Johnny Miller has his eyes set on the course as a major championship venue in the future. The Safeway is a tournament that I will be circling on my calendar next year.

We stay out west this week for another traditional 'Swing Season' event, the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open in Las Vegas. We have another stout lineup of players in attendance this week. Let's dive in!

 

Shriners Hospitals For Children Open Overview

Like last week's Safeway Open, this Shriners Hospitals field is very strong for a fall event. Defending champion Bryson DeChambeau is back and he'll be joined by a host of high-quality players like previous Shriners winner Patrick Cantlay, and major champions such as Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland, Webb Simpson, and Adam Scott. There will also be an injection of youth in Vegas this week, with last week's winner Cam Champ (I would keep an eye on Champ's status this week) set to play, as well as phenoms Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa.

From a DFS perspective, this week's slate looks eerily similar to last week...with a couple of marquee names up at the top and a lot of quality in the mid-to-high price ranges, which gives us tons of options when constructing rosters. The sample size is tiny - so I am still chalking it up to coincidence - but since the PGA Tour's new top-65 and ties cut rule went into effect, the percentage of 6/6 lineups on DraftKings has been very low. Do with that information whatever you will, but it is something to keep in mind when building lineups.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: TPC Summerlin

Par 71 - 7,255 Yards, Greens: Bent
We go from a fairly tough test at Silverado last week to a TPC Summerlin layout that will be a bit more forgiving for the field. Fairly short by modern standards at just over 7,200 yards, this Las Vegas track has reachable Par-5s and a driveable Par-4, which allows players to rack up birdies. The fairways are wide and firm with huge Bentgrass green complexes that generally roll on the slow side. Summerlin routinely ranks as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour schedule, but we have seen wind and weather occasionally play a factor on this layout that sits at high elevation. While this course is on the shorter side, we haven't traditionally seen bombers have a huge advantage here, as the past winners of the Shriners have mostly been sharp ball strikers. I'll be targeting ball striking and Strokes Gained: Approach this week, as well as players that can rack up birdies.

 

The Horse

Patrick Cantlay (DK - $11,100)

Notable Course History: 2nd ('19), Win ('18)

Patrick Cantlay disappointed last week at the Safeway with an underwhelming 40th-place finish, but we get the young star in a juicy bounce-back spot at the Shriners this week. Cantlay had a huge season in 2018-19...taking down The Memorial, logging strong finishes at both the Masters and the PGA, and routinely putting himself in contention throughout the year. After flying under the radar last week in his first start since the TOUR Championship, he now heads to a TPC Summerlin track on which he's won and finished second in his last two trips.

Cantlay ended the 2018-19 season at fifth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and second in SG: Total on the PGA Tour, so we know what we're getting this week...a player that's solid in all facets of the game and loves this layout. His ball striking numbers at last week's Safeway were very good - he gained 4.7 strokes T2G, 3.8 Off the Tee, & 2.8 on Approach - but he struggled both on and around the greens, losing over two shots in each category. I'm willing to chalk those up to two factors: rust and Poa. This week, Cantlay heads to Vegas with four tournament rounds under his belt and gets a putting surface which has traditionally been his best in Summerlin's Bentgrass greens.

He always seems to be popular, but I'm hoping that last week's disappointing outing will perhaps lower his ownership a bit (though that probably won't be the case!). He's my favorite play up top this week and will be where I start lots of lineups.

 

The Ponies

Webb Simpson (DK - $10,200)

Notable Course History: T15 ('19), T20 ('18), Win ('13)

I know I'm guilty of being a Webb Simpson apologist, but if you had rostered Webb Simpson every time he teed it up last season, you would've probably made a lot of money. Simpson was consistently great throughout 2019 and only missed one cut in 21 starts. He didn't get any wins, but logged 15 top-25s out of those 20 made cuts.

This will be the Webber's first start since the TOUR Championship, but he should feel right at home at TPC Summerlin. The 2018 PLAYERS champion has been the model of consistency at the Shriners throughout his career, having logged a win in 2013 and two additional top-five finishes. He finished 2018-19 ranked third on the PGA Tour in Scoring Average at 69, and ranked inside the top 20 in scoring average on Par 3s, 4s, and 5s (3rd in Par 4 Scoring Average!).

Like the aforementioned Cantlay, Webb is strong in all facets of the game and grades out fourth in this field in SG: Total over his last 24 rounds. Those of you looking for a more balanced build can feel great about starting your lineups with Simpson - and while we might be sacrificing a bit of win equity - there's something to be said for rostering a player as consistent as Simpson in this new DK climate where 6/6 lineups are hard to come by.

 

Brian Harman (DK - $7,800)

Notable Course History: T15 ('17)

There is really a lot to love in the $9k price range, with both Collin Morikawa and Joaquin Niemann being especially interesting to me, but just so we can touch on some players in different pricing tiers, I'm dropping down to Brian Harman at $7.8k.

Harman doesn't have a very extensive history at TPC Summerlin, which makes him an intriguing pivot from well-known course horse Scott Piercy at $7.9k. What the lefty does possess is some extremely sharp current form and a game that's a natural fit for this layout. Harman began trending toward the end of the '18-19 season by logging three top-10s between June and August. He hasn't slowed down after the short layoff, and scored a top-three at the Greenbrier and a top-15 at Sanderson Farms in the past month.

The veteran rates out an impressive third in this field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds and brings both sharp ball striking (eighth in SG: Ball Striking) and a silky short game (12th in SG: Short Game) to Vegas. I'm going to keep a close eye on Harman's ownership projections this week and if it appears that he's going to fly under the radar, I won't hesitate to go aggressively overweight on him in this spot.

 

Aaron Wise (DK - $7,500)

Notable Course History: T15 ('19), T32 ('18), T10 ('17)

Aaron Wise disappointed a lot folks (including me) a couple of weeks ago at the Sanderson Farms when he settled for a T39 as a very popular DFS option. I'm willing to let bygones be bygones with the former Oregon Duck in this spot, as he has a really solid track record at TPC Summerlin with top-15 finishes in two of his last three starts at the Shriners.

Though Wise didn't have the finish many of us wanted at the Sanderson, he actually played really well tee to green, gaining 4.4 strokes T2G for the week. His undoing was on the greens, where he lost 2.2 strokes putting. I'm encouraged by his solid play outside of the putting (he gained strokes in every major category at the Sanderson), his ability to light up Par-5s (first in the field in SG: Par 5s) and rack up birdies at a huge clip (first in the field in Birdies or Better Gained). I love his upside in large-field stuff and wouldn't mind rostering him in single entry tourneys.

 

Cameron Percy (DK - $6,900)

Notable Course History: T72 ('15), T2 ('10)

I don't often highlight sub-$7k players in this article, but I'm willing to dip into the high $6k price range to grab the Aussie Cameron Percy at what I feel is a bargain. Percy heads to the Shriners with trending form and irons that are smoking. He's gained over 10 strokes on approach combined in his last two starts, which resulted in a T11 at Sanderson Farms and a T7 at last week's Safeway. We can mix that recent form with some solid course history at TPC Summerlin, as Percy scored a T2 in this event way back in 2010 and owns a scoring average of 68.00 over his three appearances at TPC Summerlin.

Anytime I go fishing in this price range I'm looking to capture lightning in a bottle and Percy's recent ball striking form makes him very appealing in this spot. He stands sixth in this week's field in Birdies or Better Gained over recent rounds. Frankly, I probably won't be making this play in lineups where I need 6/6...but I love the upside Percy brings to GPP rosters at this price.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Welcome back PGA RotoBallers! Another 'Swing Season' event, another first-time PGA Tour winner, as Sebastian Munoz captured the Sanderson Farms Championship last week. Munoz held off a hard-charging Sungjae Im Sunday afternoon and made a clutch 15-footer for birdie on the 72nd hole to force a playoff with Im, the reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, before eventually prevailing at the Country Club of Jackson.

I know the lure of football is hard to ignore on Sundays, but we are seeing some high-quality golf being played this fall, and I look for this week's Safeway Open to be the best 'Swing Season' event that we've seen yet, as a slew of very strong golfers head to beautiful Napa, California.

 

Safeway Open Overview

For a 'Swing Season' event, this week's Safeway field is downright star-studded. Justin Thomas headlines a surprisingly-strong turnout that includes Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott, Bryson DeChambeau, and Francesco Molinari. The reigning Safeway champion Kevin Tway will be back to defend his title and Phil Mickelson will also be coming out of hibernation to tee it up for the first time this season.

In addition to the elite players in the field, we get some fun names this week like rookie sensation Colin Morikawa, teenager Akshay Bhatia, Fred Couples and Tony Romo, though I wouldn't recommend playing the former Cowboys QB in DFS!

All in all, this is a surprisingly-juicy field and a nice little September surprise! From a DFS perspective, I think the field will naturally lend itself to 'Stars & Scrubs'-type roster constructions this week due to the elite players that are available above the $9k DraftKings price tag, but there is definitely enough quality to go with a balanced lineup if that's your preference. This will be an interesting and fun week to dig into PGA, let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Silverado Resort & Spa North

Par 72 - 7,166 Yards, Greens: Poa
A small group led by Johnny Miller purchased this Robert Trent Jones Jr.-designed property in 2010. Miller quickly orchestrated a fairly extensive re-design which has been well received. This is a classic layout with tough-to-hit, tree-lined fairways that places an emphasis on accuracy off the tee. Elite ball striking is required at Silverado and will be an area that I will target heavily, while iron play will also take its usual prominent place in my research process. I'll also glance at scrambling and around-the-green ability this week. For the first time in a while, we'll see Poa Annua greens. Poa is notoriously tricky and could wreak havoc on some guys in this field - especially young players that have very little experience on the surface. So, I'll definitely be keeping an eye on players that have positive putting splits on Poa.

 

The Horse

Justin Thomas (DK - $11,400)

Notable Course History: T8 ('17), T3 ('16)

No big surprises here, as Justin Thomas is without question the class of this week's (strong-ish) field. JT checks all the boxes...he has a strong record in his previous starts on this Silverado layout, he's a great statistical fit, and he closed out the recent 2018-19 season on absolute fire - notching three top-12s, a win, and a T3 in his last five starts.

If you follow golf closely, then you know that (despite his strong finish) 2019 was something of a lost season for Thomas. I strongly believed that JT was primed for a huge year before a wrist injury suffered at the Honda Classic derailed his season in a massive way. He tried to play through it before eventually skipping the PGA Championship and taking some time off to rehab it. When Thomas did return there was a definite readjustment period. However, when things started clicking, he looked like the 'top-five golfer in the world' that we all know him to be.

JT heads to Napa for his first action since the TOUR Championship and - though he lost strokes on approach at East Lake - Thomas is arguably the hottest iron player in the world at the moment. He's averaging a ridiculous 4.3 strokes gained on approach over his last five tournaments and grades out first in this Safeway field in SG: Ball Striking and Total over the last 24 rounds. JT's putter was the last thing to come around when he returned from injury and his struggles on the greens probably kept him from at least one more victory over the last couple months of the season, but the Poa he will find at Silverado North is by far his best surface historically.

Yes, we will have to make some sacrifices at other spots in our lineup in order to roster Thomas at $11.4k, but it's definitely doable. He carries more upside than anyone in this field and is the odds-on favorite to win this week.

 

The Ponies

Hideki Matsuyama (DK - $10,500)

Notable Course History: T17 ('16), T3 ('15)

If you want to pivot away from JT (or go ultra Stars & Scrubs and pair them together), Hideki Matsuyama is another nice high-end option. It's hard to call the 2018-19 season a disappointing one for the Japanese superstar - as he only missed two cuts all year - but Matsuyama is just so consistently good that it feels like he should win more. In fact, if you're gonna knock Hideki, the fact that his last victory was over two years ago is probably the only argument you can make, as he had another very strong season statistically in 2018-19, finishing at third in SG: Tee to Green and fifth in SG: Approach on the PGA Tour last year.

He brings that strong tee-to-green consistency to a Silverado North course where he's played well in his previous appearances (gaining 16.93 strokes total in two starts). We're all well aware of Hideki's putting woes, but - like the aforementioned Thomas - Poa is his best putting surface. We're sacrificing a bit of win equity by moving from Thomas to Matsuyama, but the legendary ball striker offers a ton of consistency and $900 in salary cap savings.

 

Bronson Burgoon (DK - $8,000) - Harris English (DK - $7,900) - Harold Varner III (DK - $7,800)

Notable Course History:

I really wanted to touch on this price range, but couldn't decisively choose which one of these guys I wanted to highlight. Then after tinkering around with lineup construction a bit, I realized that these three players can make up a really strong core to build around, so why not list them as a package deal?

All three head to Napa in hot-fire form. Burgoon is fresh off a T6 at the Sanderson Farms, English has logged a third and a sixth in his two Swing Season starts, while HV3 has two top-15s on this course and looked sharp en route to a top-20 at the Greenbrier. All three are fine stand-alone plays, but I do like using this trio as something of a "stack", to borrow an NFL DFS term. Those of you that take the MME (Mass Multi Entry) route can go in tons of exciting directions when you start with these three. With an average salary of around $8.7k remaining after locking these guys in, you can then go up to JT, Cantlay, or Hideki and still have a very reasonable amount of salary to work with for your remaining roster spots.

 

Jim Furyk (DK - $7,400)

Notable Course History: None Recent

I'm always a little sheepish when I write-up Jim Furyk in this article (which I did several times last season), because I know he's not an exciting, #BreakTheSlate type of play...but I just can't ignore him at this price. I know, Furyk is old and boring, but he also profiles as a perfect fit for this golf course.

The veteran is your man when it comes to fairways and greens. Over his last 24 rounds Furyk ranks fourth in the field in Fairways Gained and sixth in GIRs Gained, in addition to grading out 12th in the field in Proximity. He had a very strong 2018-19 season that included three top-10 finishes, though he did fade down the stretch a bit. The 49-year-old hasn't teed it up since the BMW, so I look for him to show up in Napa well rested and refreshed.

 

Cameron Tringale (DK - $7,200)

Notable Course History: T46 ('18), T43 ('17)

I'm still kicking myself for not highlighting Cameron Tringale last week, but I let his poor course history at the Sanderson Farms influence me a bit too much. I won't make the same mistake again this week! Tringale's history at the Safeway is similarly underwhelming, but he just sticks out to me as way too cheap at $7.2k.

There's something to be said for a guy simply being a "good golfer" and that's where I am with Tringale this week at this price, as he's perhaps played the best golf of his career over the past year. He's solid in all facets and stands ninth in this field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds, while grading out sixth in GIRs Gained and 20th in Good Drives Gained over the same timeframe. This is a player that gained almost 10 strokes T2G last week at the Sanderson and his price went DOWN a hundred bucks!

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Welcome back PGA RotoBallers! The PGA Tour's 'Swing Season' started out with a bang, as young, star-in-the-making Joaquin Niemann captured his first victory on the PGA Tour at A Military Tribute At The Greenbrier. Niemann is a HFTC favorite and was featured here multiple times toward the end of last season. It seemed like a matter of when, not if, Niemann was going to win and he did it on a course where he had looked very comfortable in two previous starts.

While the Greenbrier has its beautiful resort to help draw solid fields, this week's Sanderson Farms Championship has no such luck. As a result, we are looking at a true 'Swing Season' field - meaning one that is devoid of any established superstars.

As I write this, Niemann is scheduled to tee it up (though I'll be surprised if he doesn't WD) at the Sanderson. He'll be joined by the likes of Sungjae Im (obviously), Brandt Snedeker, and defending champion Cam Champ. See...I told you the field was pretty thin!

 

Sanderson Farms Championship Overview

After years of being an 'opposite field' event, the Sanderson Farms Championship gets all the spotlight this week. The Sanderson will be offering a full compliment of FedEx Cup points this week. Cam Champ exploded on to the pro golf scene with his dominant performance in last year's Sanderson and broke the tournament's scoring record en route to his first career victory on the PGA Tour.

While Champ carved up the Country Club of Jackson last year with his prodigious length off the tee, it was actually his hot putting that propelled him to the win. When we take a look at the recent winners of this tournament, we see that distance off the tee isn't necessarily a prerequisite.

From a DFS perspective, there's a lot of uncertainty this week due to the quality (or lack of quality) of this field. There are certainly some ways to attack this slate, but I will be focusing mainly on large-field GPPs and scaling back what I normally have in play. Ok, let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Country Club of Jackson

Par 72 - 7,421 Yards, Greens: Bermuda
This will mark the sixth time the Country Club of Jackson has hosted this event. Yes, this course is long at just over 7,400 yards, but I'm not necessarily putting all my eggs in the 'bomber' basket this week, as a ton of that yardage is accounted for by the layouts FOUR Par-5s. So, while I won't be strictly targeting length off the tee, I will definitely be focused heavily on a player's ability to score on the Par-5s. It seems like ballstriking is always important, and that is once again the case this week, as CC of J presents players with lots of approach shots from 200-plus yards. There will be plenty of birdies this week (Champ won at 21-under par last year), so I'll give a long look to birdie makers when constructing rosters.

 

The Horse

Scottie Scheffler (DK - $9,900)

Notable Course History: T45 ('18)

Listen, any of the guys above $10k are sharp plays this week and I could make a case for all of them, but those of you that read this article last week know that I'm driving the Scottie Scheffler bandwagon and I see no need to start pumping the brakes yet. Scheffler logged a T7 last week at the Greenbrier despite LOSING strokes putting for the week. The Korn Ferry Tour champion dropped 1.8 strokes on the greens (3.6 strokes on the weekend alone!), but led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

As I mentioned in last week's write up, Scheffler was statistically dominant on the KFT last season and has the game to win on the PGA Tour. His game should be a tremendous fit at CC of Jackson, as he drives the ball beautifully, is an impeccable iron player, and scores well on Par-5s. In fact, he gained 10.6 strokes T2G in last year's Sanderson, but lost a historically bad 9.4 strokes putting (that's gotta be some kind of record!).

The 23-year-old's downfall is the flatstick - and it certainly held him back last week - but he is such a tremendous fit tee-to-green that I'm willing to gamble on his putting. It seems like over the last several months we are continuously talking about these young guys that are primed for a win. We saw Joaquin Niemann break through last week and this could very well be the week for Scheffler to do the same.

 

The Ponies

Corey Conners (DK - $9,600)

Notable Course History: 2nd ('18), T65 ('17)

If ballstriking conquers all, then we have to talk about Corey Conners. The Canadian is a tee-to-green beast that ranks second in this field in SG: Ball Striking over his last 24 rounds. Conners also stands third in the Sanderson field in SG both Off The Tee and Approach over the same time frame. After picking up an out-of-nowhere win at the Valero Texas Open back in April, the 27-year-old suffered through a 'victory hangover' for much of the summer before finally clearing his head enough to make a very strong run down the stretch and qualify for the TOUR Championship.

Conners ran into the Cam Champ freight train in Jackson last year, but played well en route to a solo second...gaining 11.7 strokes T2G for the tournament. His putting is better left unmentioned, but the nice way of saying it, is it's definitely a concern when rostering him at this price. If there's a silver lining to Conners' shortcomings with the putter, Bermuda is his 'least worst' surface, and he gained over a stroke putting on these greens in last season's tournament.

 

Aaron Wise (DK - $8,500)

Notable Course History: T25 ('18), M/C ('17)

Pricing is what it is this week, but when I look at the guys in the $9k range, it starts to feel like Aaron Wise is a bit underpriced at $8.5k. Wise sure does bring a lot to the table. He's a great driver of the ball (13th SG: OTT), makes birdies in bunches (second in Birdies or Better Gained), and slaughters Par-5s (first in SG: Par 5). Wise also logged a T25 in last year's Sanderson, so there's some familiarity with this layout.

Like the aforementioned Scheffler and Conners, Wise isn't exactly a putting wizard, but Bermuda is his best putting surface by a wide margin. He's a bit erratic, but what we're giving up in consistency we're more than making up for in upside, as the 23-year-old already has a PGA Tour win and six top-10 finishes in his young career.

 

Doc Redman (DK - $7,200)

Notable Course History: None

There's a lot of recognizable names in the $7.5-$8k range (List, Burns, Streelman, Armour, ZJ), but I'm dropping down to the low $7k's for Doc Redman. When I go down to this price range - especially in a swing season event - I'm looking for upside, and Redman has demonstrated both in his college days at Clemson and in his brief career on the PGA Tour, that he has the type of game that can compete for wins.

He scored a runner-up finish and two top-20's in just six starts at the end of the 2018-19 PGA Tour season and recorded a top 25 last week at the Greenbrier. We don't have any course history to lean on, but Redman is a nice statistical fit for CC of Jackson. He ranks first in the field in Birdies Gained over the last 24 rounds and grades out fifth in SG: OTT and eighth in SG: Ball Striking. Again, at this price, in this tournament, I'm not really worried about making a cut, but rather looking for players that can actually contend. I believe Redman has a chance to do just that.

 

Harry Higgs (DK - $7,000)

Notable Course History: None

I'm going to round things out with Korn Ferry Tour-graduate Harry Higgs. The 27-year-old had an excellent season on the KFT in 2019, picking up a win and five top-10 finishes. He played well during the KFT finals and recorded a solid T19 at the Greenbrier last week, gaining 4.2 strokes T2G over four rounds, so he heads to Jackson in active and good form.

Higgs isn't the type of player that has one area of his game that jumps out at you, but instead has a very well-rounded game that is solid in all facets. He ranked fourth in Birdie Average on the KFT in 2019, as well as finishing in the top 10 in Par 4 & Par 5 Scoring and Putting Average. He's just a solid player that is flying a bit under the radar this week and is a nice pivot from what I expect to be a chalky Robby Shelton.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

What's up PGA DFS family? I hope you all have recharged your golf batteries during the short (but much needed) break! The PGA Tour doesn't sleep long and we're heading into the 'Swing Season' this week. It's honestly one of my favorite times of the year, with football gearing up and some nice opportunities for us to profit in golf over the next several weeks.

The last PGA Tour event was the TOUR Championship, but this week's A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier will look much different from what we saw in Atlanta. These fall events are generally comprised of young players that have just recently earned their Tour card and veterans that are trying to extend their careers, with just the occasional star opting to tee it up. That said, this week's field has some relatively good depth for a 'Swing Season' event.

The highest-ranked player in this field is Bryson DeChambeau. Young guns Viktor Hovland, Joaquin Niemann, and Sungjae Im (of course!) will also be in attendance, in addition to players like Scottie Scheffler, Tom Lewis, and Harry Higgs that are fresh off conquering the Korn Ferry Tour. Kevin Na will be back to defend his 2018 title after an injury-plagued close to the 2018-19 season.

 

A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier Overview

Thanks to the PGA Tour's leaner, meaner schedule, The Greenbrier now finds itself in September rather than its traditional July time slot. While the 'Swing Season' is often an afterthought for golf fans, this tournament will be awarding full FedEx Cup points and privileges, so it is very important to these players.

We've seen a variety of different 'styles' be effective at The Greenbrier over the years, but the common characteristics of winners is accuracy, solid ball striking, and a hot putter. If you want to look at past winners from a narrative-based angle, we really don't see the 'big names' in the field actually win this tournament very often. Previous winners have generally been either up-and-comers or experienced veterans.

One interesting note, this will be the first event to utilize the PGA Tour's new cut line rule of Top-65 and ties. While I wouldn't completely change my strategy yet, it will be interesting to see how this change impacts the amount of 6/6 lineups we see. This week, we'll take a look at some players with good course history, as well as some of the exciting young players that you should keep an eye on. Golf is back! Let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: The Old White TPC

Par 70 - 7,286 Yards, Greens: Bent

We head to beautiful White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia this week. The Greenbrier Resort is one of the favorite family destinations on the PGA Tour, and in addition to the amazing falconry (lol), these guys will also be playing a little golf. The Old White ranks about middle of the pack in difficulty when compared to other courses on the PGA schedule and we're most likely looking at a winning score of around 15-under par. These are some of the biggest (and easiest to hit) fairways on Tour and players can bomb away with drivers off the tee, which makes me want to emphasize Strokes Gained: Off the Tee statistics. As always, ball striking is of the utmost importance, so SG: Tee to Green and Approach will definitely be areas I'm targeting this week. With just two Par-5s on the course, I'll also be weighting Par-4 scoring a little heavier than normal.

 

The Horse

Viktor Hovland (DK - $10,900)

Notable Course History: None

Ok...I admit it, I've got a DFS crush on Viktor Hovland. I closed out the 2019 season by rostering Hovland basically every time he teed it up and I plan on kicking off the 'Swing Season' with V-Hova once again anchoring the majority of lineups.

To me, it's not a question of if Hovland will win, but rather a matter of when. He's got that type of game. He showcased his ability in limited PGA Tour starts at the end of last season, when he ran off three-straight top-16 finishes and a solo fourth over his last four starts. Hovland came up just short of securing his PGA Tour card (which was ridiculous), but cruised through the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to grab Tour status for this year.

He's still progressing with his short game, but his tee-to-green numbers are off the charts. Over the last 24 rounds, Hovland ranks first in this Greenbrier field in the following categories: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, Off the Tee, Approach, and DraftKings points. The youngster doesn't have any course history at Greenbrier, but he's proven himself to be a fast learner and has excelled on various types of layouts in his short career. It wouldn't surprise me to see Hovland log a Xander-type breakthrough win this week.

 

The Ponies

Russell Henley (DK - $9,400)

Notable Course History: 10th ('18), T5 ('17), 5th ('15)

A little course-history play here, as Russell Henley has been superb in his prior visits to the Greenbrier. Henley has two top-fives and a 10th in his last three starts on the Old White and the former Georgia Bulldog showed some life during the last few events of the 2019 season, posting a runner-up at the John Deere and a T15 at the Barracuda.

Henley has gained strokes off the tee in his last five starts on the PGA Tour and gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight. He grades out third in this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and is eighth in Opportunities Gained in the same time frame. His putter held him back for the majority of last season, but he will be extremely comfortable on these Old White greens on which he's gained at least three strokes putting in each of his last three Greenbrier appearances. His big price tag is a little scary, which should make him an interesting contrarian option in GPPs.

 

Scottie Scheffler (DK - $9,300)

Notable Course History: None

If you are less than a hardcore PGA DFS player, you might be wondering, "Who is this Scottie Scheffler guy at $9.3k?". Well, don't let the price scare you, because the kid can flat out play. He was downright dominant on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, winning both the regular season and Finals points titles. The 23-year-old had a huge college career at the University of Texas, and is now set to attack the PGA Tour. He's already shown that he belongs by racking up almost $140k in winnings in just four PGA starts last season, and I expect big things from the young man in the upcoming year.

It's not apples to apples when comparing Korn Ferry stats to PGA Tour stats, but Scheffler's numbers on the KFT were staggering last season. He was first in both Scoring Average and Birdie Average, second in Ball Striking, sixth in Total Driving, and fifth in GIR %. The bottom line is that this kid can stripe it. His short game isn't great, but he can get hot enough with the putter to get himself into contention. Like the aforementioned Henley, the price tag might scare folks away, but I'm always willing to gamble on young talent.

 

Brandon Hagy (DK - $7,400)

Notable Course History: T18 ('17)

If we're gonna load our rosters with players in the $9k price range, we'll need to do a little bargain shopping. I'm really drawn to the upside that Brandon Hagy brings to the table at $7.4k. The bomber's promising career has stalled a bit, as he's battled a wrist injury for over a year. He didn't play well in limited PGA Tour appearances last season, but I'm encouraged by his recent performances in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. Hagy logged a T5 at the Nationwide Children's Open in mid-August and followed that up with a T2 at the Albertson's Boise Open that included a final-round 64.

He heads to an Old White layout where he recorded a T18 in 2017. His prodigious length off the tee will give him a big advantage this week. I'm hoping that casual DFS players will glance at his DraftKings game log and cut record (1/13), and scroll past him. We could possibly get a leg up on tournament fields just by knowing that Hagy appears to finally be healthy and rounding into form.

 

Brendon Todd (DK - $6,700)

Notable Course History: T6 ('15), T4 ('14)

If you're uncomfortable with Brandon Hagy, you're probably gonna be really nervous about Brendan Todd, a player that literally lost his game a few years ago. There's no doubt that he's a scary player to roster, but if we remove all the psychological baggage from the equation, then Todd makes tons of sense at this price...he's got tremendous course history at Greenbrier and he's currently playing well.

Todd logged two top-25s in three PGA Tour starts in July and cruised to a runner-up finish and a T20 in the recent Korn Ferry Tour Finals. The 34-year-old has a win and 12 top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour over his career and it appears as if he finally has exorcised his golf demons. I'm will to take a shot on him in GPPs at this price.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Hey guys and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! I honestly thought that last week's HFTC would be the last golf article I would write for at least a couple of weeks, but old habits die hard and here I am talking about the PGA even though the season is over!

Rory McIlroy capturing the FedEx Cup in Atlanta last week was a fitting end to a season that has been truly amazing. After a few years of less-than-expected results, Rory has re-established himself as one of golf's truly elite players. His win at the TOUR Championship came at the expense of Brooks Koepka, who captured one major championship this season and contended in three others. Koepka is known as a 'Big Game Hunter' and came extremely close to bagging a huge $15 million payday at East Lake.

The 2018-19 PGA Tour season was a great one for several reasons. With just a couple of weeks until the 'Swing Season' kicks off, I thought now was the perfect time to look back at some of the best moments from this year. Thanks for stopping by, let's tee it up!

 

Tiger Woods Wins The Masters

In a world of 24-hour news cycles and instant reactions on social media, Tiger Woods pretty much broke the internet at this year's Masters. I still can't believe this really happened! TIGER WOODS WON THE MASTERS?!? Tiger's 2018 season was proof that he could play again, he was in the mix in a couple of majors and won the TOUR Championship to close out the season, but it was still unimaginable to most that he could really slip on another green jacket. A Masters win was hard to fathom not only due to all the personal obstacles he has overcame (divorce, a cheating scandal, repeated comebacks that ended badly, back surgery, and a DUI), but also because of the depth of talent the he would need to defeat in order to win a major championship.

Woods answered the call at Augusta National this year, winning his fifth Masters title and 15th major championship. His ascension to the top of the Masters leaderboard was a study in mental toughness. While Tiger of course played well, it was his ability to hold things together while everyone else fell apart that locked up the green jacket for him. Sunday back nines don't get much more exciting than what we witnessed at Augusta National this year.

While it was a huge emotional high for all golf fans, it's fair to wonder what the unimaginably-emotional win did to the man himself. Woods was largely a non-factor for the rest of the year. He missed the cut in two of the three remaining three majors, despite Pebble Beach and Bethpage Black being courses that he had previously conquered. It looked as though Tiger was set up perfectly for a major championship run in 2019, but he continuously looked both rusty and/or hurt.

Woods' season ended at the BMW Championship at Medinah and we are left with tons of questions as we look to what his future might hold. He'll captain the U.S. President's Cup team in December, but he never plays much golf over the winter. He finished 2019 with just 12 starts and it's fair to wonder how much golf Tiger will play going forward. Will he enter 2020 re-energized and healthy or will he be forced (or choose) to continue playing a drastically reduced schedule? No matter what we get from Woods in the years ahead, he without a doubt authored the signature moment of 2019 and one of the greatest victories in the history of any sport with his win at the Masters.

 

Brooks Koepka Dominates At Bethpage Black (And Pretty Much Everywhere Else)

Love him or hate him, you have to respect what Brooks Koepka has accomplished over the last two-and-a-half years. The 29-year-old has captured four major championships since 2017, including a display of absolute dominance at Bethpage Black en route to winning the 2019 PGA Championship. Koepka played near-flawless golf for 64 holes on the brutal New York layout that gave the rest of the field fits, before stumbling a bit down the stretch in the worst weather of the week.

The 'Big Game Hunter' didn't bag any other majors in 2019, but he was a constant on the leaderboards in all of them. Koepka recorded runner-up finishes at both the Masters and the U.S. Open, in addition to a T4 at the Open Championship despite a brutal final-round pairing with a slow and struggling J.B. Holmes. Koepka also answered critics that claim he only shows up to play in majors (Really? That's a critique?) by winning the swing season's CJ Cup and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. Despite his two non-major wins this season, Koepka does remain something of an enigma for DFS players with his Jekyll and Hyde combination of a dominant upside and total indifference depending on the week.

 

Both Opens Produce Feel-Good Winners

We didn't see the world's biggest stars win at the U.S. or British Opens, but we got two winners that made us feel good. Gary Woodland's personal losses off the course have been well documented, and while his on-course talent has never been questioned, his ability to close out tournaments hasn't been great. After 54-holes of dazzling golf at Pebble Beach and the weight of a possible U.S. Open win on his shoulders, Woodland answered any doubters and held off an intimidating Brooks Koepka to grab his first major championship.

On the other side of the pond, an Irishman was supposed to win the Claret Jug at Royal Portrush...it just wasn't supposed to be Shane Lowry. Hometown favorite Rory McIlroy carried the hopes of Northern Ireland into this year's Open, but then the unthinkable happened when a horrifying opening-round 79 sent the Ulsterman home for the weekend. Ireland's Lowry, from a few hours south of Portrush, picked up the banner and ran with it. On the strength of a Saturday 63 that was one of the most amazing rounds of golf you'll ever see, Lowry claimed his first major championship in a drama-free final round.

 

The New Schedule & The PGA Tour Partners With DraftKings

After gaining lots of media attention, the new PGA Tour schedule appeared (at least in my eyes) to be a huge improvement. Wrapping things up before football always made sense and the leaner schedule gave us a huge tournament to look forward to basically every month. Sure, the players might complain about it, but let's be honest...the players complain about EVERYTHING. It may take golf's elite some time to tweak their schedules perfectly in an attempt to peak for the majors, but I think this schedule is great for the everyday golf fan (and for DFS players). A nice byproduct of the tighter schedule is a juicier-than-normal 'Swing Season' that is right around the corner.

In another (long awaited) fan-friendly move, the PGA Tour entered into a partnership with DraftKings that makes DK the official Daily Fantasy Sports partner of the Tour. The possibilities are endless with this partnership and it should help an already-growing PGA DFS industry explode in the future! What it means in the short term is that WE (PGA DFS players) will finally be gaining a level of acceptance from 'the establishment' after spiking their ratings over the last couple of years.

 

A Youth Movement That Can't Be Ignored

As DFS players, we're always looking for golf's "next big thing". Well, we weren't disappointed this season as an unbelievably-talented crop of young players exploded on to the PGA Tour. It's easy to forget now, but Cam Champ was THE story in golf at the end of 2018. Sungjae Im, AKA the new Vijay, played roughly 527 tournaments this season and showed the type of game that's built to last at the professional level. Last year's darling Joaquin Niemann overcame some putting struggles to finish the year strong. The trio of Matthew Wolff, Colin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland (rightfully) grabbed all of the headlines during the second half of the season. Wolff and Morikawa both scored wins, while Hovland may actually be the best of the bunch and played very well in limited events (Hovland secured his Tour Card at the Korn Ferry Finals last week). These guys give me the feeling that golf, and the PGA DFS industry, has a very bright future.

 

Rory's (Kinda) Back

It's tough to knock a guy for not winning majors, as I truly believe it is one of the toughest times in the history of golf to win any tournament, so I'm not gonna drag Rory McIlroy too hard for not winning a major this year, but man he really came up small in the year's four biggest tournaments. He headed to Augusta as the prohibitive favorite, in great form, and fresh off a huge win at the Players Championship only to completely disappear at the Masters. He logged the backdoor-iest top-10 finish ever at the PGA after just making the cut and fizzled out at the U.S. Open after two sub-70 rounds to start the week. We all know about the disaster on his home turf at Royal Portrush, so the less said about that the better.

Still...even with his failures in the majors, Rory looked like RORY again in 2019. He won the Players, the RBC Canadian Open, and the TOUR Championship. He took home $15 million for his FedEx Cup triumph and was one of the few that had the nerve (or clout) to chime in on the slow-play issue, as well as continuing to be perhaps the most open and honest interview in golf. Overall, it was a very good year for Rory, one that gives us reasons to be optimistic about the future. Rory is one of the few current players that has a 'Tiger-esque' quality and golf is definitely better off when he's playing well.

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Big Bad Brooks. The "Big Game Hunter" must have decided that a WGC trophy was worthy of mounting on his wall, because Koepka showed up at the FedEx St. Jude Invitational with major-championship form and focus.

Koepka entered the final round at TPC Southwind trailing Rory McIlroy by one shot and golf fans (myself included) were pumped for a heavyweight fight. Instead of the slugfest we were hoping for, we got a Mike Tyson-style beatdown, as Koepka cut through Rory like a warm knife through butter. Brooks fired a final-round 65 to Rory's uninspiring round of 71, and cruised to a no-sweat win in Memphis.

While his victory solidifies what we already knew about Brooks - that he can dominate any field on any course - Koepka still remains one of the DFS world's biggest enigmas. He's the type of dominant player that we would love to regularly target, but his motivations (or lack thereof) make it extremely difficult to trust him in non-major events. I wish he were more consistent, but right now it appears that we'll have to settle for him being a high-priced player with both an extremely low floor and tournament-winning upside that usually can be rostered at reasonable ownership levels.

 

Wyndham Championship Overview

We go from a "rich get richer" event in the WGC, to a tournament that holds a lot of importance to several of the PGA Tour's rank and file members. The FedEx Cup Playoffs loom large for many in this week's Wyndham field, as around a dozen players stand within 50 points of the cut line. The importance of getting inside the top-125 of the points list can't be overstated for these guys, as in some cases it's the difference between another year on the PGA Tour and being relegated to the Korn Ferry Tour. Nobody wants to play on a tour called the Korn Ferry.

Brandt Snedeker heads to Greensboro as the defending Wyndham champion. Sneds logged a remarkable 59 in his opening round at Sedgefield Country Club last year, but still had to go down to the wire in order to outlast CT Pan. The field is going to look fairly weak when compared to what we've become accustomed to over the last couple of weeks, but it's not without some strength. Paul Casey, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, and Hideki Matsuyama all scheduled to tee it up in North Carolina, as are some of golf's most exciting youngsters, Collin Morikawa (fresh off a win at the Barracuda to secure his Tour Card!), Matthew Wolff, and Viktor Hovland.

I try to make HFTC more than just a regular 'picks' article (though you can certainly use it that way if you need to) and while I often use course history as a foundation, there are no 'rules' here other than to get you the best PGA DFS info possible. One quick word about this week's WGC event, there is no 36-hole cut, so adjust your lineup building strategy accordingly.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Sedgefield Country Club

Par 70 - 7,127 Yards, Greens:

This little Donald Ross gem has been a presence on the professional circuit since the 1930's and has now played host to this event for 12 consecutive years. At just over 7,100 yards, length won't be an issue for the players this week (Henrik Stenson won here two years ago without hitting his driver one time. Literally never hit driver all week!). Fairways and greens are the order of the day at Sedgefield. In true Ross fashion, these greens are some of the smallest on the PGA Tour schedule and do have tricky undulations, but this track routinely ranks as one of the easiest on the PGA Tour schedule.

It seems like we emphasize ball striking every week, but it is without a doubt crucial at Sedgefield. It's a bit of an outlier event in that I'm paying absolutely no attention to distance. I'll be focusing on ball strikers that are both accurate off the tee and precise with their irons on approach. As mentioned earlier in the article, Sneds dropped a 59 here last year and the winners over the past three years have been at least 21-under par. Lots of birdies will be needed this week, so I'll also be searching for players that can go low.

 

The Horse

Webb Simpson (DK - $11,200 & FD - $11,900)

Notable Course History: T2 (2018), 3rd ('17), T6 ('15), T5 ('14), Win ('11)
Recent Form: 2nd (WGC-FedEx), T30 (Open Championship), T16 (U.S. Open), T2 (RBC Canadian Open)

Webb was last week's Horse and came through with a runner-up finish at TPC Southwind. In fact, he played so well that I decided to just go ahead and roll with him again at the Wyndham. Webb might not be as exciting as some of the guys that we normally see sitting atop the DFS salary scale, but he has been unbelievably consistent this season and it feels like a win is coming soon.

What better place for a Webb victory than at a Sedgefield course that he's dominated throughout his career? Since 2014, Simpson has only finished outside the top-six in the Wyndham once and he leads this field with 40.65 Strokes Gained: Total in that time span. This is something of a home game for the Raleigh, North Carolina native, and while his price tag is high, I'd be surprised if Simpson isn't in the mix come Sunday.

His game fits Sedgefield perfectly. He's accurate off the tee (32nd in Good Drives Gained) and precise with his irons (13th in SG: Approach), in addition to wielding a hot putter (2nd in SG: Putting). He's first in this week's field in SG: Total over the last 24 rounds and heads home in tremendous form, having logged four sub-70 rounds last week in Memphis.

It seems a little gross to see Simpson with the week's highest price tag, but his blend of course history and current form makes him worth spending up for. We don't have the type of stars available this week that we've had at our disposal in the last couple of events, but there is some sneaky-good value in this field that makes getting Webber in your lineups a viable option.

 

The Ponies

Collin Morikawa (DK - $10,400 & FD - $11,600)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: Win (Barracuda), T4 (John Deere), T2 (3M), T36 (Travelers)

As we near the end of the PGA Tour season, I've decided that I'm going out swinging with my guys! I've already told you about Webb Simpson and for my first Pony of the week I'm going with my new favorite player, Collin Morikawa.

I've been all-in on the young Cal product since he turned pro just under two months ago and I'm certainly not hopping off the Morikawagon now. My man just picked up his first professional win at the Barracuda last week and I've got the feeling that there are many more to come now that he's locked up his PGA Tour card.

Morikawa was slightly less heralded than his counterparts Matthew Wolff and Viktor Hovland coming out of college, but he's perhaps been the most impressive as a pro. The young man has lit it up during his short time on the PGA Tour. We know that Sedgefield is all about iron play and Mori heads to NC ranked first in the field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds, as well as third in SG: T2G in the same time span.

It's always a little scary to roll with a player that's coming off a win, but Morikawa is just young enough and focused enough to not realize how hard victories are to come by. It might sound nuts, but he really has a legitimate shot to go back-to-back this week. It's easy to fall hard and fast for these young guys that haven't scarred us yet, but I'm telling you folks, this kid is on a different level when it comes to ball-striking consistency.

 

Viktor Hovland (DK - $9,500 & FD - $11,100)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: T16 (John Deere), T13 (3M), T13 (Rocket Mortgage), T54 (Travelers)

I'm sticking with the youth movement here with Viktor Hovland. The Norwegian was the most hyped of the young trio that recently turned pro, but is unbelievably now the only member of the crew without a win. That might change this week in Greensboro, as V-Hova brings his uncanny ability to go low to a track that relinquished a 59 just last year.

Hovland has already earned a reputation as a "Sunday player", as he's went 64-65-64 in his last three final rounds. He also has eight consecutive sub-70 rounds over his last two starts. Hovland is second in the field in Opportunities Gained and third in Birdies Gained.

As it did with Wolff and Morikawa, there's a sense of inevitability when it comes to Hovland getting a win. This Sedgefield layout that allows players to score in droves might just be suited perfectly for the young star.

 

Kevin Streelman (DK - $7,00 & FD - $9,300)

Notable Course History:
Recent Form: T57 (Open Championship) T34 (3M), T35 (Rocket Mortgage), T15 (Travelers)

Kevin Streelman is nowhere near the best player in this field, but he might be my favorite play this week. That feeling is almost entirely due to his price and form, as Streelman has really no course history at Sedgefield to speak of, but man...he feels really underpriced to me at $7.8k, especially when we consider that he was priced in the mid-to-high $8k's for the Travelers, Rocket Mortgage, and 3M, fields that might have been slightly weaker than this one, but not by much.

I guess I get it...Streelman's recent finishes haven't been especially noteworthy, but it just feels like the guy is playing really solid golf at the moment. His stats bare that out, as he ranks second in this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds, while also grading out fourth in SG: T2G and 10th in DK Points Scored.

Sure, I wish there was a little better course pedigree here, but good ball striking always travels well. Streelman has gained strokes T2G in nine-straight starts and his price really gives you tons of flexibility when constructing lineups.

 

Brice Garnett (DK - $7,100 & FD - $8,100)

Notable Course History: T20 ('18), T20 ('16), M/C ('15), T32 ('14)
Recent Form: T18 (Barbasol), T37 (John Deere), T23 (3M Open), T17 (Rocket Mortgage)

I'm rounding out the list with a player that I didn't expect to be talking about when I started my research process for the Wyndham. Brice Garnett is one of several intriguing players on the cheap end of the salary scale this week. At just $7.1k (and $8.1k on FD) Garnett caught my eye due to his solid course history at Sedgefield and his strong recent form.

Obviously, Garnett isn't a player that we often target, but he's an interesting GPP option this week. He's notched top-20's in his last two Wyndham starts and has reeled off four-straight made cuts on the Tour, with three of those being top-25 finishes. Garnett isn't a guy that's going to pop statistically, but he's extremely accurate off the tee (seventh in Good Drives Gained) and he's gained strokes both T2G and with his irons in all of his last three starts.

His lack of distance is a major hindrance on most PGA Tour layouts, but won't be a problem here. He's a great way to shake things up if you are playing large-field tournaments and has top-25 potential at this discounted price tag.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Hello RotoBallers and welcome back to Horse For The Course! The 3M Open was a new tournament held in Minnesota that actually provided some pretty high drama Sunday afternoon. There was definitely a youth movement in effect at TPC Twin Cities, as the final-round leaderboard was packed with many of golf's most exciting young guns. In the end, 20-year-old Matthew Wolff eagled the 72nd hole to grab his first PGA Tour win, edging out two other young stars in Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau (both of whom were highlighted in this article last week!) by one shot.

Wolff was playing on a sponsor's exemption and making just his third start as a professional. The young man with the crazy swing recently won the NCAA Individual Championship and has definitely announced his presence on the PGA Tour with authority.

In addition to Wolff and Morikawa, some other exciting young players gave us a glimpse of the future at the 3M. Viktor Hovland continues to impress and seems to have all the tools needed to be a star. Guys like Wyndham Clark, Joaquin Niemann, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im played well in Minnesota and are players that should continue to offer DFS upside in these birdie fest type of events.

 

John Deere Classic Overview

The PGA Tour stays in the Midwest for one more week, as we head to the Quad Cities for the John Deere Classic. Though the Tour schedule has been significantly revamped this year, the JD Classic will once again hold its traditional spot on the calendar as the prelude to the Open Championship and serves as a last chance to get into the year's final major for this week's highest finisher that isn't otherwise qualified for Royal Portrush.

Because the Open is next week and many of golf's elite players have already headed over to Europe, this will be one of the weakest fields we've seen since the swing season. I'm not gonna lie to you guys, it's not especially pretty this week. The JDC features four of the top 30 in the current FedEx Cup standings, but you'd probably be hard pressed to name them. The 2018 JDC champion Michael Kim hasn't made much noise since his surprise win here last year, but he's back to defend his title. We will get another look at some of the aforementioned young guns, as Matthew Wolff, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, and Justin Suh are scheduled to tee it up at TPC Deere Run.

After a couple of weeks of new events with zero course history to work with, we have plenty of results to evaluate from the long-running John Deere. I try to make HFTC more than just a regular 'picks' article (though you can certainly use it that way if you need to) and while I often use course history as a foundation, there are no 'rules' here other than to get you the best PGA DFS info possible. We had a really nice week last week, let's do it again!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: TPC Deere Run

Par 71 - 7,268 Yards, Greens: Bent

I hope you guys haven't grown sick of birdies over the last couple of weeks, because we've got plenty more in store this week at TPC Deere Run. This D.A. Weibring design ain't exactly Bethpage Black. The fairways are super easy to hit. The greens are super easy to hit. Paul Goydos shot a 59 here in 2010. You get the idea...there will be birdies.

TPC Deere Run features some dramatic elevation changes throughout the layout with the course being designed to present players with risk/reward options that, more often than not, results in more reward than risk. Though birdies are plentiful, the bombers don't necessarily have a distinct advantage in this tournament, as guys like Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker are some of the biggest all-time money earners at the John Deere Classic.

As I have for the last few weeks, I'll once again be looking for players that can go low by focusing on Birdie or Better Percentage and DK Points Scored. I'll also give weight to Strokes Gained: Approach & Tee to Green while glancing at guys that have success putting on Bentgrass.

 

The Horse

Viktor Hovland (DK - $10,900 & FD - $11,600)

Notable Course History: None Available
Recent Form: T13 (3M Open), T13 (Rocket Mortgage Classic), T54 (Travelers), T12 (U.S. Open)

Viktor Hovland is getting the highlight here, but you can very well consider this the Viktor Hovland / Collin Morikawa / Matthew Wolff section of the article. I wrote up Morikawa here last week, Wolff got the win at the 3M, and Hovland once again caught fire in a final round. In many ways, this week's John Deere Classic (and by default, DFS contests) revolves around this talented trio that is already taking the PGA Tour by storm.

While Wolff and Morikawa received most of the TV time last Sunday, Hovland was quietly logging a final-round 65 to finish in a tie for 13th at the 3M...his second consecutive T13 outing. The kid has been pegged as a superstar for some time now, and his record-breaking outing at the U.S. Open and subsequent performances since turning pro afterwards don't do anything to change that projection.

Over his last 12 measured rounds Hovland leads this John Deere field in both Strokes Gained: Ball Striking & Off The Tee, and grades out second in Opportunities Gained. He's gained strokes tee to green in every start he's made since turning pro, including gaining a massive 9.2 strokes T2G last week. The youngster has logged top-13 finishes in three of his last four starts despite gaining strokes putting in just one of those outings, which leads me to believe that a win is attainable with a decent week on the greens.

I have to admit, there was some sticker shock when I first looked at DK pricing this week. I suppose I was hoping deep down that DraftKings might be a little slow on the uptake with these young guns, but they obviously aren't fooling around in this weak JDC field. Of the three at the top of the board, I prefer Hovland and Morikawa to Wolff, but that's just personal preference. It will be tough to get even one of these guys in your lineup this week, due to the lack of depth in the field, but I look for Hovland to make a big splash in this tournament and will get him in as many GPP lineups as possible.

 

The Ponies

Brian Harman (DK - $9,400 & FD - $11,000)

Notable Course History: T10 (2017), M/C ('16), T24 ('15), Win ('14)
Recent Form: T7 (3M Open), M/C (Rocket Mortgage), T8 (Travelers), T50 (RBC Canadian Open)

Truth be told, 2019 has been a pretty brutal year for Brian Harman. The diminutive lefty has only made 13 of 24 cuts this season, but Harman's game is trending in the right direction at perhaps the perfect time, as he's logged top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts and heads to a TPC Deere Run track where he won in 2014 and has recorded four career top 25s.

Harman has been solid in all facets of the game recently and ranks ninth in the JDC in SG: Total over his last 12 rounds. While he certainly doesn't blow you away with obvious talent like some of the young guns in this week's field, the veteran has been finding fairways and greens at a great clip and has gained strokes T2G in six consecutive starts.

He might not be the most exciting player to roster this week, but Harman brings a really nice blend of trending form and terrific course history to the table. If you want to attempt to take a solid route with lineup builds, Harman is a good place to start roster construction at $9.4k.

 

Scott Brown (DK - $8,300 & FD - $9,900)

Notable Course History: T12 ('18), T25 ('17), T16 ('16), M/C ('15), T5 ('14)
Recent Form:T15 (3M Open), M/C (Rocket Mortgage), T60 (Travelers), T31 (RBC Canadian Open)

You know it's the John Deere Classic when Scott Brown seems like a decent option. While I definitely have some reservations here, Brown does possess a Brian Harman-like combination of strong course history and trending form. We're taking a stab with him on a TPC Deere Run course where he's logged six-career top 25s with four such finishes in his last five JDC starts.

In addition to his strong track record on this layout, Brown heads to the Deere fresh off a T15 at last week's 3M Open, his best outing since April. He had the irons firing in Minnesota, gaining an impressive four strokes on approach at the 3M and 5.7 strokes T2G.

There's not much I can do to make Scott Brown sound exciting guys...this is a true blue collar, salt of the Earth type of golfer. He's a course horse play that is third in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at this tournament, and we are attempting to catch him in hot form.

 

Bronson Burgoon (DK - $7,800 & FD - $9,400)

Notable Course History: T2 ('18), T47 ('16)
Recent Form: T34 (3M Open) T35 (Rocket Mortgage), T60 (Travelers), M/C (Memorial)

This mid-$7k price range has been a real sweet spot for me in recent weeks and I plan on going back to the well again for the JDC. Guys like Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati, and Cameron Tringale have been playing well in these less-than-stellar fields over the past month, but their price hasn't really changed much. While I like all three of those players, for the purposes of this week's article, let's look at Bronson Burgoon for a minute.

There seems to be a common theme with the players I've already highlighted this week of "not had great seasons, but have trending form with a strong history in the Deere". That train of thought continues with Burgoon, who has pretty abysmal this year, but seems to have found something over the past couple weeks. The 32-year-old has logged back-to-back top-35 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage and 3M. He's gained strokes T2G and on Approach in both of those starts, while racking up 39 combined birdies in those two events.

Burgoon has a good pedigree at TPC Deere Run, as he logged a runner-up finish in last year's JDC. He also fits right into the type of roster construction I'm leaning towards this week...one of the young guns up top paired with heavy doses of this mid-to-upper $7k range.

 

Johnson Wagner (DK - $7,200 & FD - $8,200)

Notable Course History: T16 ('18), M/C ('17), T5 ('16), T5 ('15), T7 ('14)
Recent Form: T23 (3M Open), M/C (RBC Canadian), T43 (AT&T Byron Nelson), M/C (Wells Fargo)

I'm rounding out this week's article with Johnson Wagner. Yeah, I know...

Wagner actually has a freakishly-good track record in this tournament, with back to back T5s in 2016-17, a T7 in '14, and a T16 here last year. If there's gonna be a tournament where he shows up, it's the JDC. Wagner rode a hot putter to a T23 last week in Minnesota and gained 5.7 strokes on the greens at TPC Twin Cities. That's his M.O...try to find fairways and greens while making a ton of putts. It's worked well for him at TPC Deere Run, as he trails only Zach Johnson in Strokes Gained: Total (38.31 !) at the John Deere Classic.

You aren't going to find much to love statistically with Wagner, but after writing this article for a year-and-a-half, I can tell you that sometimes this stuff just doesn't make sense. He's a 'course horse' in its truest form and a player that you can gamble on in GPP lineups with this week's very thin field.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

What's up RotoBallers? The Rocket Mortgage Classic drew strong crowds in the city of Detroit and the layout provided plenty of scoring opportunities. Nate Lashley was the last man into the Rocket Mortgage field, but also ended up being the last man standing on Sunday, as he used a pair of 63s to record a crazy-low total winning score of 25-under par.

It was the first victory of Lashley's career and the cap to a wild DFS week in which we saw both huge favorite Dustin Johnson and newly-crowned U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland miss the cut at Detroit Golf Club. Birdies were the order of the day at the Rocket Mortgage and if you weren't scoring you were dropping down the leaderboard quickly.

This week we head to another new stop on the PGA Tour schedule and I have a funny feeling that we will see more of the same from a scoring perspective.

 

3M Open Overview

The PGA Tour continues its barnstorming tour of the Midwest with another brand new event. This week we head to Minnesota for the 3M Open, the state's first regular PGA Tour event in around 50 years.

You will see a lot of similarities between last week's Rocket Mortgage field and the players that will be teeing it up in this week's 3M. Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, and Bryson DeChambeau headline a field that probably has a little more depth than last week, but still drops off fairly quickly after the top 10 or so players at the top of the board. Players like Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau add solid quality to the lineup. Phil Mickelson brings more name recognition than form to Minnesota, while 2018 Masters champion Patrick Reed heads to the Twin Cities on the heels of his first top-five finish of 2019 last week.

Unlike last week's Detroit Golf Club, which was a totally unknown commodity going in, we do have some sense of how this week's host course - TPC Twin Cities - will play due to its time hosting an annual PGA Tour Champions tournament.

Once again this week, we have no course history to build around, so I'll simply be highlighting some of my favorite DFS plays from different price ranges. Let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 - 7,458 Yards, Greens: Bent

While this TPC Twin Cities layout is a longtime host of a PGA Tour Champions event, this will be its first shot at the big time. The Arnold Palmer layout (with tons of input from Tom Lehman) opened in 2000 and has been long-been considered one of the best tracks on the Champions Tour schedule. The course has been upgraded in preparation of this week's tournament and will play at just over 7,400 yards to a par of 71.

We can take the term "upgraded" to mean longer and more difficult, but it's hard to imagine that this layout will be super tough for the best players in the world. TPC Twin Cities ranked first or second in birdies among Champions Tour stops in each of the past seven years, so we can safely project very low scores to be needed this week. There are 27 bodies of water in play on this course that takes advantage of its natural contours and rolling landscape, but players will be able to swing away with drivers as the fairways at TPC Twin Cities are VERY WIDE. Over the last few events we've leaned in the direction of accuracy off the tee, but I'm definitely giving the bombers a bump this week.

I will be targeting players in a similar fashion to last week; solid tee-to-green games, good ball striking, and the ability to make birdies in bunches. I'll also look for bombers with length off the tee and glance at Bentgrass putting splits.

 

The Horse

Bryson DeChambeau (DK - $10,500 & FD - $11,000)

Notable Course History: None Available
Recent Form: T8 (Travelers), T35 (U.S. Open), T22 (Memorial), M/C (Charles Schwab)

This week's 3M Open is almost eerily similar to last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic. Both are new events on the PGA Tour schedule, both courses come with lots of unknowns (but birdies are expected in bunches), both fields feature a few elite players at the top with the quality running out very quickly, and many players under $10k being overpriced. Last week we had Dustin Johnson in sort of a league of his own at the top of the salary scale, this week we have Brooks Koepka. I'll be the first person to admit that Koepka is capable of dominating any tournament he plays (and this course should set up PERFECTLY for him), but we just haven't seen it outside of major championships. While it's always scary to fade him, I think that's the direction I'm headed this week.

I'm not totally opposed to paying up this week, and there are merits to rostering guys like Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, and a surging Patrick Reed, but I'm perhaps most interested in Bryson DeChambeau in this spot.

I've resigned myself to the fact that Bryson is going to run hot and cold. After a scorching fall and start to 2019, he's been living in an ice age for several months. However, there are signs that things are starting to come back around, as he logged a T8 in his last start at the Travelers. The 'Mad Scientist' gained 6.1 strokes tee to green at the Travelers and was on the plus side of every major strokes gained category, a sign that his game is indeed trending in the right direction.

It's not necessarily that I think Bryson is better than Koepka, Matsuyama, or Day...but he has shown a propensity for winning these type of events in his short career (John Deere Classic and Shriners Hospitals Open). DeChambeau is also a talented birdie maker and he ranks ninth in the field in Birdies or Better over his last 12 rounds, despite standing 35th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green in the same time frame.

I imagine DeChambeau will be a fairly popular option this week, as it doesn't take a genius to spot the trending form he brings to Minnesota. I will keep an eye on his ownership projections and will stick with him unless a pivot to Hideki, Day, or even Koepka offers a ton of leverage.

 

The Ponies

Joaquin Niemann (DK - $9,300 & FD - $10,200)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form: T5 (Rocket Mortgage), T5 (Travelers), T31 (RBC Canadian Open), T27 (Memorial)

I have to admit, I became pretty enamored with Joaquin Niemann's game last year. While I was able to capitalize on his amazing start on the PGA Tour last season, I've proceeded to dump all those profits back by continuing to roster him over the past 6-8 months. Well, what goes around comes around, and my man Joaquin is coming around the bend like a freight train!

The 20-year-old from Chile heads to Minnesota on the heels of back-to-back top-five finishes at the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage, but even before the top-five outbursts we have seen his game steadily trending in the right direction. He's averaged 5.6 Strokes Gained T2G over his last five tournaments and stands 28th in the field in Birdies or Better Gained and second in Bogeys Avoided over his last 12 rounds. Niemann is slowly coming out of what can be described as 'putting purgatory' as he's gained strokes putting in three of his last five starts, which isn't bad for a kid that was maybe the worst putter on the PGA Tour for the first part of 2019.

Yeah, the price is a little ridiculous...but whose isn't this week? It's early in the week, so I'll closely monitor ownership projections, but you have to figure that Tony Finau will get some attention at $9.2k, $100 less than Niemann. I can't imagine that Niemann's ownership will be big at this price, which makes me eager to get him in GPPs lineups this week.

 

Collin Morikawa(DK - $7,900 & FD - $9,100)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form:T36 (Travelers), T35 (U.S. Open), T14 (RBC Canadian)

I'm dropping from Joaquin Niemann at $9.3k all the way down to Collin Morikawa at $7.9k. Why? Because I honestly think I like what's available in the $7k price range more than the options in the $8k range.

Some guys like taking a 'wait and see' approach with young guys that are new to the PGA Tour. I get it, but I'm the complete opposite. I want to jump on them before their price (and ownership) get out of hand. My goal is to roster players like Jon Rahm and Tony Finau before they become JON RAHM and TONY FINAU, and I feel the same way about a couple of these guys that recently turned pro, like Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa. It's like stocks, you wanna get in on the ground floor.

Morikawa has been impressively sound in his three professional starts to date. He recorded a T36 in his most recent outing at the Travelers and was a third-round 75 away from a much better finish. The Cal product is 19th in this 3M field in SG: T2G over his last 12 rounds and ranks fifth in the field in Birdies or Better Gained in his last three starts.

The rookie has received a fairly significant price bump of $1,000 from his DK salary of $6,900 at the Travelers. I'm hoping that the increase will scare people away from Morikawa this week. Do I wish he was cheaper? Of course, but I'm willing to spend the $7.9k on a hungry young player that's solid tee to green and has amassed 50 birdies over the first three starts of his professional career.

 

Cameron Tringale (DK - $7,700 & FD - $8,900)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form: T5 (Rocket Mortgage) MDF (Travelers), T11 (Travelers), T23 (Byron Nelson)

Let's stay in the mid-$7k price range with Cameron Tringale. The 31-year-old journeyman might not be well known to casual golf fans, but if you're a PGA DFS regular you've probably noticed noticed his performances as of late. He racked up 24 birdies at Detroit Golf Club last week on the way to a top-five finish and the ability to post low numbers will once again be crucial at TPC Twin Cities this week.

Tringale's recent finishes are noteworthy, but it's the stats behind them that truly stand out. He ranks second in this field in Birdies Gained and sixth in Opportunities Gained over his last 12 rounds. Tringale is an impressive second in this 3M field in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: T2G over his last 3 starts, and has averaged gaining strokes in every major strokes gained category over his last five tournaments.

I love the price here. You can almost construct your lineups from the inside out this week using a core of $7k guys like Tringale, while mixing and matching up top. We know that there are risks involved with this type of field and the lack of standout options at higher prices gives me the motivation to lean heavily on a guy like Tringale in this spot.

 

Max Homa (DK - $7,000 & FD - $8,300)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form: T42 (Rocket Mortgage), M/C (Travelers), T37 (Memorial), T27 (Charles Schwab)

Max Homa's recent finishes haven't been spectacular, but I'm still interested in the Twitter legend this week. It really feels like we are getting a lot of bang for our buck with Homa at $7k in this field.

We all know that he logged the life-changing win earlier this year at the Wells Fargo, but Homa has put together a solid season outside of his Quail Hollow victory. In his five starts since the win he's averaged 2.1 SG: T2G. He has a lot of qualities that should be a nice fit for the 3M...he stands ninth in SG: OTT and 30th in Driving Distance over his last 24 rounds, while ranking 18th in the field in Birdies or Better Gained & 11th in Opportunities Gained.

As I mentioned, my favorite thing about Homa this week is the price tag. At $7k, makes rostering a Koepka, Day, or DeChambeau very doable. While his last two outings haven't been great, I was still really surprised to see that Homa's price had actually decreased in a field of this caliber. Fire him up in GPPS!

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

How's it going golf fans? I hope you all are having a prosperous PGA DFS season! Chez Reavie took down the Travelers last week for his first PGA Tour win in around a decade. It's easy to forget how long some of these journeyman-type players can grind between wins. We had seen some trending form from Reavie over the past couple of months, and despite having a solid week, I once again missed the boat on the actual winner of the tournament.

 

Rocket Mortgage Classic Overview

We go from a longstanding Tour event in the Travelers to the Rocket Mortgage Classic, an event that's making its debut on the PGA Tour schedule. Quicken Loans has been a long-time partner of the Tour and has sponsored an event in the D.C. area for years, but the new schedule gave Quicken a chance to host a tournament in its hometown of Detroit.

The Rocket Mortgage has attracted a few headliners, with newly-crowned U.S. Open Champion Gary Woodland, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, and Hideki Matsuyama all scheduled to be in attendance, but it appears that the field takes a pretty sharp drop in quality after the handful of elite players at the top. The young gun duo of Viktor Hovland and Matt Wolff are in the field and will continue their quest to grab PGA Tour cards, with former major winners Patrick Reed and Bubba Watson also slated to tee it up.

In addition to the rather thin field, we are dealing with a golf course that we've never seen before. Detroit Golf Club was founded in 1899, but this will be its first-ever PGA Tour event, so we will have zero course history to draw from this week.

I'm not gonna lie ladies and gentlemen, this is a pretty tough week from a DFS perspective. A new golf course and a lackluster field aren't usually a recipe for success for those of us that normally feel like we have a bit of an advantage most weeks. Because we don't have any course history to evaluate, I'm throwing our usual format out the window this week and going with more of a "players I think I like in this spot" article. As always, thanks for reading! Let's talk about some golfers!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Detroit Golf Club

Par 72 - 7,309 Yards, Greens:

We're getting a course we haven't seen before this week with Detroit Golf Club. Established in 1899 and opened for play in 1916, DGC is a two-course complex (North & South Courses) with both being Donald Ross designs. For this week's Rocket Mortgage players will face 17 holes from the North Course with one hole from the South Course being utilized. Unlike some of Ross' other legendary courses (Pinehurst No 2, Oakland Hills, Scioto, to name just a few), DGC has never really hit the big time and this will be the club's first PGA Tour event.

The course should place a premium on accuracy off the tee with its tree-lined fairways, bunkers - not to mention out-of-bounds on multiple holes - forcing players to be somewhat cautious with drives. If players find the fairways, they should be hitting mid-to-short irons into these greens that have Ross' signature undulations and back-to-front slope. I'm looking for strong iron players and solid tee-to-green profiles this week. Fairways and greens will be the order of the day for me.

 

The Horse

Hideki Matsuyama (DK - $10,200 & FD - $11,300)

Notable Course History: None Available
Recent Form: T21 (U.S. Open), 6th (Memorial), T16 (PGA), T23 (Wells Fargo)

Look, we all know that Dustin Johnson is looming large over this field like King Kong. You guys don't need me to tell you to play DJ, so let's take a look at the other 'elite' options available to us. Of the players priced above $10k on DraftKings - Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, & Hideki Matsuyama - 'Deki is without a doubt my favorite option...and it's not particularly close.

Fowler is sponsored by Rocket Mortgage and will undoubtedly be faced with tons of corporate obligations this week. Woodland is making his first start since winning the U.S. Open and has been on a week-long victory tour. That brings us to Matsuyama, who - while being a huge star and always dealing with tons of Japanese media - can fly relatively under the radar.

When dealing with a course that's completely unknown, you have to feel great about Matsuyama's tee-to-green ability. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks top-10 in all of the following Strokes Gained categories: Total, Tee to Green, Ball Striking, Approach, and Short Game. Not to mention that he's first in this field in DK points scored over his last six tournaments.

We all know that Hideki has had more than his share of struggles with the putter, but he's actually been steadily improving on the greens over the past couple of months, and has gained strokes putting in his each one of his last four starts.

I'm not normally a big feel player when it comes to DFS, but it really does feel like Hideki is due for a win. His ball striking stats are elite and his putting is trending in the right direction. If I go above $10k this week, I'm heading straight for Matsuyama.

 

The Ponies

Ryan Moore (DK - $9,500 & FD - $10,200)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form: T15 (Travelers), T33 (Memorial), M/C (PGA), T69 (Byron Nelson)

Let's continue our little walk down #narrativestreet with Ryan Moore. Doesn't the Rocket Mortgage Classic just sound like a tournament that Ryan Moore would win? Don't worry, I'm not (totally) basing this selection on the name of the tournament, as Moore has actually demonstrated some really impressive ball striking over the last few months.

At last week's Travelers, Moore gained a strong 4.1 strokes on approach and seven strokes tee to green. He grades out sixth in this field in SG: Approach, but is consistently held back by his short game, as he stands just 80th in SG: Around the Green and 63rd in SG: Putting. While those numbers are a little scary, it is somewhat encouraging that Moore has done his best work on the Poa surface that he will find this week at DGC.

Am I crazy about paying $9.5k for Ryan Moore? No, not really. But we know the deal on week's like this, players all along the salary scale will receive price bumps due to the weakness of this field. I don't want to say that you have to ignore prices this week, but you will have to make some stands with players in this field.

 

Billy Horschel (DK - $9,000 & FD - $10,400)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form:T32 (U.S. Open), T9 (Memorial), T19 (Charles Schwab), T23 (PGA)

I'll admit that I probably had a little too much Billy Horschel in my DFS lineups for the U.S. Open, but I'm going right back to the well this week. Billy Ho heads to Detroit with a solid run of recent form. He's gained strokes T2G in all four of his starts since the Masters (including two majors) and has two top-25s and a top-10 in that span.

Horschel has been super solid both off the tee and with his irons. Over his last five tournaments he's averaged gains of 2.2 both OTT and on Approach. Since we're sort of grasping at straws when it comes to course history/fit this week, let's grasp at some with Billy Boy. Horschel has logged four top-five finishes in the last calendar year. One of them came in last year's BMW Championship, which was held at Aronimink Golf Club...a Donald Ross layout; one of the others was in last year's Tour Championship, which is held at East Lake...a Donald Ross layout. This week's Rocket Mortgage is being played at Detroit Golf Club, you guessed it...a Donald Ross design. Is it a little thin? Maybe. But on a week where we don't have much to go on, it's something.

We've already touched on pricing this week. It's tough, but I would actually argue that Horschel is the most appropriately-priced player in the $9 to $10k price range on DK. If you want to take a more balanced approach to lineup construction this week, you can start your builds with Horschel and try to jam in as many solid options as possible.

 

Jason Dufner (DK - $8,000 & FD - $9,500)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form: T35 (U.S. Open) T7 (Memorial), T40 (Charles Schwab), M/C (PGA)

Let's continue down the list of guys that just scream, "ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC CHAMPION"! Jason Dufner has a major championship win to his credit, so I'm definitely not knocking him, but it's been a rough few years for the 'Duff Daddy'. It seems like his career has been a series of peaks and valleys to this point, and if the way the War Eagle is striking the ball lately is any indicator, he might just be headed back to the mountaintop.

Dufner has been putting on a clinic with his irons recently. He ranks 13th in the field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and has gained strokes with his irons in five of his last six tournaments. He's also been very solid off the tee, ranking third in this field in both Fairways Gained & Good Drives Gained. Fairways and greens are a stat I'm very interested in this week on an unknown course, and we can feel confident that Dufner will find both with regularity. The trouble starts once my man reaches the green, as he ranks an abysmal 116th in the field in SG: Putting. That's...not very good.

At $8k in this field, I'm willing to take a flyer on Dufner's putter being decent this week. Some will frame it by saying that since these greens are unfamiliar to every player in the field, everyone's a little more equal this week. I don't know that I fully buy that argument, but I nonetheless like Dufner as a 'GPP-Only' play this week.

 

Peter Malnati (DK - $7,500 & FD - $8,500)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form: T30 (Travelers), T31 (RBC Canadian Open), T17 (Memorial), T40 (Charles Schwab)

Let's drop down to what stands in for 'mid-range value' this week with a guy from my neck of the woods. Peter Malnati, of Jefferson County High School in East Tennessee, is in the midst of a very solid run of play. He's ran off four straight made cuts - and while his finishes haven't been spectacular - he's shown the ability to go low with rounds of 66 in each of his last two starts.

Malnati pops in this spot due to his sharp iron play. He's eighth in this week's field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and has gained strokes with his irons in his last four starts (including a MASSIVE NINE STROKES at the Memorial). Malnati's not a bomber, but comes in at a solid 21st in SG: Par 5s and 28th in Birdies or Better Gained.

The strength of Malnati's game is his mid and short iron play, which is what he should have in his hands plenty this week. As I've mentioned several times, it's a thin week, so catching a guy that's a sharp iron player and is playing with a lot of confidence at this price is enough for me in GPPs.

 

Alex Prugh (DK - $7,000 & FD - $8,100)

Notable Course History: N/A
Recent Form: 20th (Travelers), T21 (U.S. Open), M/C (RBC Canadian), M/C (Byron Nelson)

Chances are if you are gonna squeeze Dustin Johnson into your lineup, you will need to dive down into this range. Let me tell you, the sub-$7k price range of the Rocket Mortgage is NOT a pretty place to be. That said, if you do wanna take a shot with some 'Stars & Scrubs' builds you could probably do worse than Alex Prugh.

We're trying to ride the heater with Prugh here. He's been hot in his last two starts, a T21 at the U.S. Open and a T20 last week at the Travelers. Prugh has gained 7.5 & 4.5 strokes tee to green in those respective starts and does offer some salary relief. Over his last 24 rounds he's a nifty fourth in the field in GIRs Gained and 11th in Good Drives Gained. Fairways and greens. At $7k. At the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Give Prugh a look if you need to dive down here.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Hello RotoBallers and welcome back to HFTC! Patrick Cantlay came up huge with a final-round 64 at Muirfield Village to win the Memorial at 19-under par over Adam Scott and Martin Kaymer. It was the 27-year-old's second PGA Tour victory and I get the feeling that there are many more to come.

Cantlay has an excellent tee-to-green game that translates well to almost any type of course, especially major championship venues. We've already seen his name on the leaderboard at both the Masters and PGA Championship this year, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's a big factor at the upcoming U.S. Open.

If you can't tell, I'm firmly seated on the Cantlay bandwagon. I'm also really excited because he was our featured Horse in last week's article *FIST PUMP*, so hopefully you guys made some money and are ready to keep rolling at this week's RBC Canadian Open!

 

RBC Canadian Open Overview

After being regularly contested at Glenn Abbey Golf Club for several years, the RBC Canadian Open will head to Hamilton Golf & Country Club for the first time since 2012. Due to that fact, be careful when researching course history this week! While it has nowhere near the prestige of the U.S. or British Opens, this tournament has drawn increasingly stronger fields over the last few years. It doesn't hurt that the event is sponsored by RBC, a company that has several of golf's elite players on its payroll.

RBC Ambassador Dustin Johnson took down last year's Canadian Open and will be back to defend his title...#ForTheBrand. Perhaps the biggest news this week is that Rory McIlory will be making the trek north of the border for his first-ever appearance in the RBC Canadian Open. DJ and Rors will be joined by recent PGA Champion and possible cyborg Brooks Koepka, as well as a group of solid players like Webb Simpson, Bubba Watson, and Sergio Garcia. Justin Thomas also decided to play this event late last week, probably in an attempt to knock off some rust before the U.S. Open. So all in all, we've got ourselves a downright juicy little field this week!

Thanks to the PGA Tour's new (and improved) schedule, this will be the first Canadian Open held in June since 1989. With the U.S. Open on the horizon, we will be on W/D alert this week. We've seen it numerous times in the week before a major - the AT&T Byron Nelson most recently - that players won't hesitate to withdraw if they are dealing with any type of injury. My advice would be to walk softly when rostering players that have any type of injury concerns or history of W/D's.

I try to make HFTC more than just a "picks" column (though you can certainly use it that way if you are in a hurry) by digging deep into each highlighted player. Obviously, our weekly jumping off point is a player's course history, but there isn't a firm set of rules when it comes to who is featured in this article. My goal is to help you succeed as a PGA DFS player. Period. I will touch on different GPP and cash-game strategies throughout the column each week and hopefully have some useful info for both beginners and experienced DFS players. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Hamilton Golf & Country Club

Par 70 - 6,966 Yards, Greens: Poa Annua w/ Bent

After leaning heavily on Glen Abbey Golf Club for the last several years, the RBC Canadian Open heads to a classic Hamilton course for the first time since 2012. A H.S. Colt masterpiece that opened in 1915, Hamilton has previously hosted five Canadian Opens. We don't see many sub-7,000 yard courses on the PGA Tour schedule anymore (think Harbour Town), but players won't necessarily be able to overpower this golf course thanks to its tricky layout and (reportedly) thick rough. The most elite players in this field can be considered 'bombers' (DJ, Rory, Koepka), but I'll be targeting ball strikers this week, with a heavy emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach. The Canadian Open hasn't been played on this course since 2012, but that leaderboard was dotted with shot makers like Scott Piercy, Robert Garrigus, and William McGirt. Players can go low here (Piercy fired a course-record 62 en route to the win in '12), so I'll also be looking for guys that have the ability to pile up birdies.

 

The Horse

Brooks Koepka (DK - $11,700 & FD - $12,500)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: Win (PGA), 4th (AT&T Byron Nelson), T2 (Masters), T56 (The Players)

If I'm being candid (which is how I always try to be here), I have to admit that I didn't expect Brooks Koepka's name to be anywhere near this week's article. There seems to be lots of reasons not to play Koepka this week: a questionable course fit, he's making his first start since winning the PGA Championship, it's possible he'll be looking ahead to next week's U.S. Open, etc., etc.

All those concerns are valid - and while they are perhaps legitimate reasons to maybe wait until next week with Koepka - something tells me that none of that stuff matters. With the way the newly-minted-four-time major champion is playing right now, we can almost throw all the usual stats and normal rules out the window.

While we might (fairly) think of Brooks as a bomber, it should be apparent that he has evolved into so much more than that. Looking for ball striking and sharp iron play this week? He's third in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and seventh in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds. We know that Koepka is dominant on Par 5s (he's first in the field in SG: Par 5s), but he's also been shredding Par 4s and stands second in this field in SG: Par 4s over his last 24 rounds.

As I write this it is still early in the week, so I don't have a great feel for how popular Koepka is going to be just yet. I don't think tons of people will go to Koepka due to the reasons mentioned above and the lack of quality available on the lower end of the salary scale. We know that Brooks flips a switch at the majors, but we saw a strong outing from him at the Byron Nelson during the week prior to the PGA Championship. I think there's a strong chance that we see a repeat of that performance this week. If his ownership is trending low, I won't hesitate to jump on him in GPPs.

 

The Ponies

Webb Simpson (DK - $9,700 & FD - $10,800)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: T29 (PGA), T18 (Wells Fargo), T16 (RBC Heritage), T5 (Masters)

I feel like Webb Simpson is sort of a forgotten man recently. Simpson has quietly went about his business in 2019, just flying under the radar and logging solid outing after solid outing.

Simpson might have moved to the back of our minds because it doesn't feel like he's really played a lot this year (he hasn't...Webb's only played 13 events in the 2018-19 season), but when he's shown up, he's shown up. He's only missed one cut this year (the Valspar back in March) and hasn't finished outside the top 30 in his last four starts, which include both the Masters and the PGA Championship. These super-stretched major championship courses aren't suited to Webb's game, but a sub-7,000 yard layout like Hamilton Golf & CC should be right down his alley.

Simpson averages just 287 yards off the tee, but he ranks sixth in this field in Fantasy National's 'Fairways Gained' metric. While we don't necessarily think of Simpson as a true 'scorer', he stand an impressive eighth on the PGA Tour in scoring average this season at 69.73. He should routinely find fairways and greens this week, and he has an impeccable short game to bail him out of any trouble (sixth in the field in SG: Around the Green).

Simpson is probably priced appropriately this week...he's not over $10k, but also isn't an obvious great value. There's a good chance that he will be the forgotten man when players are constructing lineups, but I have him squarely on my radar at this short Hamilton track.

 

Jim Furyk (DK - $8,800 & FD - $10,900)

Notable Course History: M/C ('12), Win ('06)
Recent Form: T33 (Memorial), T13 (Charles Schwab), M/C (PGA), M/C (RBC Heritage)

I was really close to going with Henrik Stenson in this spot. If we are looking for precise iron play, no one is doing it better than Stenson at the moment. However, I thought you guys would want a tiny bit of course history thrown in this week, so let's talk about Jimmy Furyk for a moment.

Furyk is one of the few players in this field that has played Hamilton in both 2006 & 2012. He took home the Canadian Open crown here in '06, so it's safe to say he's comfortable with the layout. Speaking of layout, this is exactly the type of track that we want to target Furyk on...not super long, demands accuracy off the tee, precision with the irons, and the ability to make birdies while avoiding big numbers. So while we might not usually get super jacked about rostering a guy that's just a year away from the Champions Tour, this is a perfect spot for Furyk.

We know what we're getting with the 49-year-old veteran. He's extremely accurate off the tee (second in Fairways Gained & third in Good Drives Gained), solid with his irons (ninth in SG: Approach), and great at avoiding big numbers (seventh in Bogeys Avoided). Furyk will most likely be a popular cash-game option this week, but I'm cool with swallowing a little chalk here and using him in 50/50 and Double Up formats.

 

Bud Cauley (DK - $8,400 & FD - $9,800)

Notable Course History: T4 ('12)
Recent Form: T9 (Memorial) M/C (Charles Schwab), T43 (AT&T Byron Nelson), T24 (Wells Fargo)

Bud Cauley is a player that’s found his way into several of my DFS lineups this year as something of a “sixth man”. I will be making Cauley a higher priority this week.

The 29-year-old has been working his way back from a devastating car accident he suffered last year. His progress has been slow, but steady. After a top-10 at the Shriners back in November, he put together some strong outings early this year. He seemed primed for a breakout after a T12 at the Honda Classic, but fell into a ‘Florida funk’ soon thereafter. Cauley’s cold streak can be attributed to an uncooperative putter. He lost strokes putting in seven consecutive starts from March to May, before finally logging a plus week on the greens last week at the Memorial where he gained 3.2 strokes putting en route to a T9 finish.

Cauley has an elite short game and ranks first in this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens over his last 24 rounds and first on the PGA Tour for the season. Scrambling ability will be important this week on a tight Hamilton layout. He fared well here in 2012, when he recorded a top-five by gaining 8.2 strokes tee to green.

We’re in new pricing territory with Cauley this week, as his $8.4k DK price marks the first time this season he’s been priced above $8k. If you can get over the sticker shock you will probably notice that things get pretty thin as you move down the salary scale. He’s an intriguing player to consider this week, but we are paying a premium due to his recent performance at the Memorial and his strong outing at Hamilton in 2012.

 

Joaquin Niemann (DK - $7,700 & FD - $9,000)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: T27 (Memorial), T31 (Charles Schwab), M/C (PGA), T38 (Wells Fargo)

Don't look now, but everybody's favorite 2018 DFS darling is beginning to round into form. Joaquin Niemann exploded on to the scene last year with four top-10s in just 12 starts. Things haven't been anywhere near as easy for Niemann in 2019 and he hasn't logged a top-10 finish since the calendar flipped over.

The 20-year-old's struggles can be directly attributed to his absolute inability to putt. It's been REALLY BAD! During a five-tournament stretch earlier this year Niemann lost over FOUR strokes putting in four of five outings. That's off-the-charts ugly. Niemann hasn't exactly had a "Happy learned how to putt" moment, but his work on the greens has been slowly improving. He's gained strokes putting in two of his last four starts, which is...something. He's 24th in this field in SG: Tee to Green over his last 24 rounds, so we just need something to click with the putter.

Niemann profiles as strictly a 'GPP-ONLY' type of play. Maybe I'm jumping back on the young phenom a bit too early here, but we know that there is just so much talent and upside with him that it's hard to resist taking a stab at this price when it appears he's trending in the right direction.

 

Corey Conners (DK - $7,500 & FD - $8,900)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: T65 (Memorial), T31 (Charles Schwab), T64 (PGA), M/C (RBC Heritage)

Sorrey, but I couldn't get through this week's article without throwing a Canadian into the mix! Corey Conners hails from Ontario eh (I have no idea if I'm using the Canadian stereotypes correctly, but at least I'm making the effort) and, to steal a phrase from my buddy Nagels Bagels, he's a real "ball-striking bastard"!

Conners is the type of player that brings his irons every week, but usually forgets his putter in the car. He ranks seventh in this field in SG: Ball Striking and eighth in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds, BUT he stands a laughably-bad 144th in the field in SG: Putting over the same number of recent measured rounds. He trails only Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka in GIR's Gained and leads the field in Good Drives Gained, so there is a lot to love from a ball striking perspective with Conners.

He's a boom-or-bust type of player, but he exhibited his massive upside with a remarkable win at the Valero earlier this year. I don't believe he's a 'one-hit wonder', as he's represented himself nicely in some big-time events since his win. He will be comfortable at Hamilton and his elite ball striking should pay huge dividends on this layout. Of course, we're hoping from some cooperation from his usually-balky putter, but Conners has the type of upside that can help you take down a GPP this week.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Hi RotoBallers, and welcome back to 'HFTC'! Kevin Na took advantage of a Colonial layout that played to his strengths last week and took down the Charles Schwab Challenge for the third PGA Tour victory of his career.

We'll jump into an exciting Memorial tournament in just a moment, but I did want to mention some comments that Kevin Na made last week that I found very interesting. To paraphrase Na's thoughts, he basically said that there are only seven or eight stops on the PGA Tour schedule where he feels like he has a legitimate chance to win, with Colonial obviously being one of them. He discussed how his lack of distance puts him at a disadvantage on numerous courses and that winning just isn't realistic for him on a number of the longer layouts.

I found Na's comments to be very open and honest, and also kind of brave in a way. His words are applicable for PGA DFS purposes. Some folks in the industry want to scoff at and/or wave away course history as something of a farce or joke, but it is pretty powerful to hear an accomplished PGA Tour professional saying openly and honestly that he feels his chance for success increases exponentially at certain golf courses. Here at 'HFTC', I attempt to use course history as a tool to identify players whose past performances might point to future successes...and Na's statement helps to solidify my belief that course history isn't an 'old wives tale', but rather a legitimate piece of the puzzle when targeting DFS plays. From a DFS perspective, last week was one that a lot of us would probably like to forget. We had some major W/D's after lineups locked and several of the field's big names missing the cut. Unfortunately, those weeks happen sometimes. We have to hang tough! Let's dive into the Memorial!

 

The Memorial Overview

We hear the term 'Fifth Major' tossed around a lot when discussing The Players Championship, but The Memorial is no slouch when it comes to attracting star-studded fields. The Memorial is 'Jack's tournament' and Mr. Nicklaus can still draw the biggest names in golf to Dublin, Ohio.

One of those stars that will be in attendance this year is Tiger Woods, a five-time winner at Muirfield Village. It will be Woods' first start since his disappointing missed cut at the PGA Championship. He'll be joined by the defending Memorial champion Bryson DeChambeau, who has been mired in a bit of slump as of late. A surging Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlory, Justin Rose, and many of golf's other elites are also headed to Dublin, Ohio.

While the Memorial never fails to draw an all-star caliber field, we've seen some surprising names triumph in this event in the past, with guys named McGirt, Dufner, and Lingmerth having left Dublin victorious over the last five years. Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village with an emphasis on accuracy and ballstriking in mind and we've seen players that hit fairways and greens consistently be rewarded in this event.

I try to make HFTC more than just a "picks" column (though you can certainly use it that way if you are in a hurry) by digging deep into each highlighted player. Obviously, our weekly jumping off point is a player's course history, but there isn't a firm set of rules when it comes to who is featured in this article. My goal is to help you succeed as a PGA DFS player. Period. I will touch on different GPP and cash-game strategies throughout the column each week and hopefully have some useful info for both beginners and experienced DFS players. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club

Par 72 - 7,392 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass

We can always count on a Nicklaus-designed course to force the players into strategic thinking and Muirfield Village doesn't disappoint. 'The Golden Bear' built this course from the ground up in the 1970's and he continually updates it as needed. It's lengthy, but isn't a 'bomber's track'. Difficult, but not impossible to score on. In other words, Muirfield is a very high-quality golf course. The emphasis this week will be on accuracy and ballstriking, with players being required to hit both tree-lined fairways and undulating greens. Water is in play on 11 holes, with bunkers also causing trouble for the players. The closing stretch is one of the toughest in golf, with 16, 17, and 18 presenting players with a challenging close to their rounds. I'll be heavily weighting Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: OTT (with an emphasis on accuracy), and bogey avoidance this week at Muirfield.

 

The Horse

Patrick Cantlay (DK - $10,200 & FD - $11,000)

Notable Course History: 4th (2018), T35 ('17)
Recent Form: T3 (PGA), T3 (RBC Heritage), T9 (Masters), M/C (The Players)

In a field that's loaded with established stars, this week's Horse is a player that falls into the 'rising star' category. Patrick Cantlay is a young player that DFS regulars have had an eye on for some time and the 27-year-old has been delivering on his huge potential in 2019.

Cantlay is quickly becoming a force in golf's high profile events. He logged a top-10 at the Masters and a top-five at the PGA Championship, and the Long Beach native has consistently flourished on difficult courses. His history at Muirfield Village is limited, but he scored a solo-fourth-place finish in his second Memorial start last year.

He checks all of the boxes that we are looking for this week. He's a complete player that ranks fifth in the field in SG: Tee to Green over the last 24 rounds. His ball striking is razor sharp at the moment, as he stands fifth in the field in SG: Ball Striking and seventh in SG: Approach. Cantlay is extremely dependable off the tee (10th in SG: OTT). He gives himself tons of birdie chances (10th in Opportunities Gained) and consistently stays away from big numbers (first in Bogeys Avoided).

We've been somewhat spoiled with Cantlay's DFS price tags this season and his DK salary is above $10k for just the second time in 2019. He was an extremely popular option the last time he teed it up in the PGA Championship and I expect a lot of folks will be eager to go back to him this week. The price tag might give some people pause, but I'll be glad to work Cantlay into my Memorial lineups, as it feels like a win is almost inevitably coming soon.

 

The Ponies

Tiger Woods (DK - $11,200 & FD - $11,700)

Notable Course History: Five-time winner
Recent Form: M/C (PGA), Win (Masters), T30 (The Players)

If a guy has won on a course five times, I think I'm contractually obligated to mention him in this article. That's the mind-boggling win total that Tiger Woods has accumulated at Muirfield Village during his career, and though a disappointing missed cut at the PGA Championship might have finally dulled the shine of his Masters win a tiny bit, we are still talking about a highly-skilled player that is heading to a course he loves.

We know that ball striking is of the utmost important at the Memorial and even at 43-year-old, Woods is still one of the preeminent ball strikers on the PGA Tour. He's 18th in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and we can be confident that he'll bring some sharp iron play to Ohio this week.

More concerning is Woods' play off the tee. We saw him drive the ball beautifully at Augusta National en route to his Masters win, but he struggled off the tee at Bethpage and hit just three fairways during a second-round 73 that heavily contributed to his missed cut at the PGA. He grades out just 44th in this field in SG: Off The Tee and will need to consistently keep the ball in play if he's going to have a chance this week.

Once again, DK has strapped Woods with a very high price tag ($11.3k). He trails only Rory McIlory on the salary scale and it's the type of price forces DFS players into a difficult decision. We saw his ownership come in a little lower than we expected at the PGA and I wouldn't be surprised if that's once again the case the week, so he should offer some leverage in GPPs.

 

Matt Kuchar (DK - $9,400 & FD - $10,900)

Notable Course History: T13 ('18), T4 ('17), T4 ('16), Win ('13)
Recent Form: T8 (PGA), 2nd (RBC Heritage), T12 (RBC Heritage), T7 (Valero)

After featuring Matt Kuchar in this article numerous times last season, I've eased up a bit in 2019. I figure that you guys know what you are getting with Kuchar by now...he's super-solid across the board and is a DFS asset that we can put a lot of trust in.

While we can feel confident about Kuch pretty much on a weekly basis, the guy has been absolute money at Muifield Village. He leads this field in SG: Total (39.01) at the Memorial since 2014 and has a win and two top-fives since 2013.

The 40-year-old is in the midst of one of his best seasons as a pro. Kuchar has two wins, two top fives, and two top-10's already to his credit this season. He's striking the ball extremely well and stands fourth in the field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds. His putting has been hit-or-miss lately (47th in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds), but we've also seen him have some solid weeks with the flatstick that have propelled him to strong outings.

When you think of Matt Kuchar, you think 'Cash Game Play' - and it's true, he is a safe, reliable option - but we have seen DFS players be reluctant to spend up for Kuchar in previous weeks. On the two recent occasions that he's been priced above $9k his ownership has been noticeably reduced, so he might be a surprisingly viable tournament play at the Memorial.

 

Henrik Stenson (DK - $8,500 & FD - $10,200)

Notable Course History: T13 ('18)
Recent Form: T48 (PGA) T20 (AT&T Byron Nelson), T28 (Wells Fargo), T36 (Masters)

Henrik Stenson's Memorial track record isn't as extensive as some of our other highlighted players this week, but it is fair to deduct that the 'Iceman' has all the right stuff needed to succeed at Muirfield Village.

After scuffling a bit at the start of 2019, Stenson once again has his irons absolutely dialed in. He's first in this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and has averaged a massive 5.1 strokes gained on approach over his last five tournaments. He's sixth in the field in proximity from 150-175 yards and 25th from 175-200 yards, two key yardages that players will face this week.

While Muirfield is long, Stenson will be able to rely on his trusty 3-wood off the tee fairly often. The Swede struggles with his driver, but is deadly with the fairway wood and ranks sixth in the field in Fantasy National's Good Drives Gained metric. He should be able to continually put himself in great position off the tee and avoid Muirfield's troublesome rough.

Stenson's iron play will draw the attention of lots of DFS players this week. The drawback with Stenson is his terribly spotty putting. He's lost strokes with the flatstick in four of his last five starts and his troubles on the greens have severely limited his upside this season. We've seen less-than-stellar putters do well in this tournament and Stenson has tournament-winning upside if he can get a few putts to drop.

 

Emiliano Grillo (DK - $7,900 & FD - $9,700)

Notable Course History: T23 ('18), T40 ('17), T11 ('16)
Recent Form: T19 (Charles Schwab), T23 (PGA), T33 (RBC Heritage), T62 (Masters)

We've known for a couple of years that Emiliano Grillo is a very talented young player. It seems like he just hasn't been able to put everything together yet and that has again been the case in 2019.

Grillo's form has been trending up over the past month. He heads to Ohio on the heels of three rock-solid outings. The Argentinian has been smoking his irons and has gained over four strokes on approaches in his last two tournament starts ( 4.4-Schwab & 4.3-PGA). He's a tremendous long-iron player and ranks third in the field in proximity from both 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards, two key distances on this Muirfield Village layout.

Grillo's downfall this season has been his struggles on the greens. Over his last five tournaments he's lost an average of 1.1 strokes putting, but that still shows some improvement when compared to his average of -2.3 strokes putting over his last 10 tournaments. Bentgrass is Grillo's best putting surface and he's gained .24 strokes on Bent vs. losing strokes putting on both Poa and Bermuda.

His combination of solid course history, recent form, and price will make Grillo a popular DFS selection this week. You aren't going to sneak up on anyone with him in tournaments, but he grades out as a tremendous cash-game option.

 

Peter Uihlein (DK - $7,200 & FD - $8,600)

Notable Course History: 5th ('18), T25 ('17)
Recent Form: T13 (Charles Schwab), T5 (AT&T Byron Nelson), M/C (Wells Fargo), M/C (RBC Heritage)

One of the cool things about writing this article every week is that you never know where the research process will take you. This week my research led me to a player that isn't often talked about for DFS purposes. Peter Uihlein isn't a player that pops up on my radar very often, but his combination of surprising course history and recent form makes me very interested in the 29-year-old this week.

After a collegiate career at Oklahoma State, Uihlein took the 'Brooks Koepka route' and grinded on the Euro Tour for a few seasons before earning his PGA Tour card and playing a full schedule last season and ultimately finishing 81st in the FedEx Cup standings. He's had some false starts this season and has been forced to W/D from a couple of tournaments, but Uihlein has figured things out over the past month - logging a T5 at the Byron Nelson and a T13 at Colonial last week.

He's a tremendous putter that ranks ninth in this field in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds and he also possesses a silky short game (17th in SG: Around the Green), but Uihlein's strong recent output has been powered by his improved iron play. He ranks just 92nd in the field in SG: Approach, but he's gained 1.4 & 2.4 strokes on approach in his last two starts (AT&T Byron Nelson & Charles Schwab).

We've seen some erratic results from Uihlein both this season and throughout his brief career, so he definitely falls into the 'GPP Only' category for me, but he is an intriguing option this week. He'll probably garner some buzz around the DFS industry, but will most likely go overlooked by casual players.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks