RADIO
If you are a long-time fantasy player, you know how does it feel to getting sniped in a fantasy draft. You know how it goes: you enter the lobby with a few players to draft in mind, have everything planned for you to build the perfect roster, and just a couple of picks before the one where you expect to target your next great asset, some other GM snatches it from you.
Those "undervalued" players you are targeting late, then, might be worth drafting earlier instead of waiting a little too much for them and ending losing them. At the end of the day, not every GM is undervaluing great plays, so you have to be aware and stay a step ahead!
Today, let's talk about some undervalued players at the guard position. For whatever reason most fantasy GMs are making them sit at lower-than-they-should ADPs, offering you a great chance to draft some gems late. Don't sleep on your laurels, though, if you don't want to miss on them to another savvy GM!
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Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets
This is the list of players with the highest ROI marks (considering 2021 ADPs and the 2020 player's overall rank) than Dinwiddie at the time of this writing: LeBron James. That's it. That's the list. LBJ is getting drafted with an ADP of 11 while finishing last season as the third-best player. Dinwiddie has an ADP of 130, making him a 13th-rounder in 10-team leagues...--after finishing 2020 as the 37th-best fantasy player in total fantasy points. How the heck is this happening, even factoring in Kyrie Irving's and Kevin Durant's comebacks!?
Sure, Dinwiddie will lose opportunities and will become more of a bench piece with Kyrie and KD back, and Caris Levert will probably be the third option on offense after those two. That being said, Dinwiddie's upside is really high, and he is absolutely undervalued right now. He posted 1.18 FP/min, tied for the 19th-highest mark last season while playing 31.2 mpg. In 64 games, Spicy Din put up an average 20-3-7 line while hitting above 30 percent of his three-point attempts (6.3 3pa, 1.9 3pm per game). And who knows if he will be traded leading up to the deadline and become a no. 1, starting-five player and leading guard in whatever team acquires him. Steal of the season. You heard it here first.
C.J. McCollum - Portland Trail Blazers
I know. McCollum is probably not a name you were expecting to find here, but he's currently going off the boards at an ADP of 55. It makes sense to consider CJ Mac a clearly undervalue player. Damian Lillard is Portland's go-to guy and that won't change any time soon. But McCollum shouldn't be a borderline sixth-rounder in 2021 drafts. Mac was the 22nd-best player last year thanks to his monster 36.5 mpg that he turned into a 22-4-4-1 average line per game. McCollum's 37.5 FPPG ranked 19th among players with more than 20 games played, and he was the 8th-best guard last season in total fantasy points.
McCollum won't see a decrease of playing time, nor fewer opportunities and touches than he's been handling to this point. The Blazers will once more live and die by Dame and Mac, so that makes McCollum a pretty known and reliable asset to bank on. Mac brings treys to the table with 2.8 per game last season (15th-best average) while attempting more than 7.0 threes per game, and 19.4 fga from the field, the 13th-highest mark in the NBA. CJ (1.8 turnovers per game) was also the only player to average more than 19 shots per game while averaging fewer than 2.5 tov.
Dennis Schroder, Los Angeles Lakers
Playing as the prime sixth man in OKC last season, under Chris Paul, Schroder couldn't have had a better season. Now part of the Lakers, and given how the depth chart looks these days, he should be taking on a starting role for the Lake Show in 2021. Schroder started 67+ games in his last two seasons with the Hawks while posting up great numbers on heavier usage rates, so it is not that we should be scared of him taking on such a role, even less considering he will be surrounded by the likes of James, AD, and Marc Gasol.
Thanks to playing 1,999 minutes and averaging 30.8 mpg off the pine, Dennis finished above Kemba Walker, De'Aaron Fox, Jamal Murray, and Jaylen Brown (just to name a few) in total fantasy points through 2020. His average per game wasn't that high (31.0), but he was above average in FP/min at 1.01. Schroder provided his fantasy GMs with stuffed lines often, those including points (18.9 ppg) in bunches paired with 3.6 rpg, 4.0 apg, and 0.7 spg on the season. Schroder shot 46.9 percent from the floor and went to the free-throw line 3.6 times per game (he hit 83.9 percent of his freebies). No player with fewer than 15 starts (Dennis started only two games) attempted more field goals per game than Schroder's 14.8 last season. Even if his usage drops, his environment is so much greater. He's clearly undervalued at his current ADP of 126.
Collin Sexton - Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron isn't coming back home, and the Cavs might be stuck in the middle of nowhere for a while, if not forever--unless Bronny James eventually becomes the next savior, I guess. For now, Sexton should be the no. 1 player of these Cavs, as he already was in 2020 when he led all Cleveland's guards in total fantasy points, FPPG, and FP/min. I mean, that is not very exciting or surprising, for sure, but it was still something with Sexton finishing the year as the 54th-best fantasy player and ranked 23rd among all guards.
Sexton's playing time was as high as it could get at 33.0 mpg, in which he dropped an average 21-3-3-1 line for the Cavs. You won't believe this but Sex was among the 17 players (12 of them guard-eligible) to put up those averages in 2020 while playing more than 20 games. The thing is, these Cavs are so bad (and they are not improving) that Sexton will shoot the hell out of every possession (he already attempted 16.7 fga last season, including 3.6 3pa, and his teammates won't help his dimes). Not a league-winning player, but not a 125-ADP player either.
Eric Bledsoe, New Orleans Pelicans
After drafting Zion Williamson a year ago, the Pels seem to have finally flipped the page by trading Jrue Holiday away and focusing on a much proper rebuild with players that will 1) be traded away for younger/draft assets and 2) align better with Zion/Ingram/Lonzo's timelines. Eric Bledsoe, while not a youngin himself (he's a year older than Jrue, in fact) will take on Holiday's role as a starting guard next to Zo, Zion, Ingram, and freshly-added Steven Adams.
Don't get it wrong: Bledsoe has started all games he's played since the start of the 2014-15 season, and that includes all his game as a Buck. But even starting all of those games, he only was on the court for 27 mpg last season even though he was averaging an absolutely great 1.15 FP/min. Derrick Rose was the only other guard with a 1.15 FP/min average playing 27 or fewer minutes, making the two of them the most-productive players at the position being lowly used. Bledsoe hit 34.4 percent of his threes attempting 3.5 per game and shot 47.5 percent from the floor. Bledsoe was the only player to finish the season with an average 15-4-5 line while playing fewer than 30 mpg. His current ADP of 69 might align with his projection, but I still think he's a little bit undervalued and has upside to get into the top-50 next season not losing usage to Giannis and K-Midd anymore and potentially seeing a bump up in minutes.
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