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Welcome to the first installment of our January ranking breakdowns! If you’re like us here at RotoBaller, you’ve been huddled around that stove awaiting that precious heat for a while now. While there are still some dominoes yet to fall, we've seen quite the flurry of moves.
This round of rankings features seven of our experts. They are Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, Kyle Bishop, Harris Yudin, Jeff Kahntroff, Bill Dubiel, and myself, Nick Mariano. The first position on the agenda is catcher, as is tradition. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.
By the way, be sure to also see our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.
2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Catchers
Catcher really is a rather wonky position to manage when you think about it. In a standard 12 team league, there's usually an owner or two who pretty much write it off. They blindly roll out players like Wilson Ramos because they recognize the name while shrugging their shoulders.
Last season was also just a very rough year for catchers, which might hold considerable weight for owners going into their draft rooms this year. After Buster Posey, you had plenty of guys do well, but whose season stats were still dragged down by injuries or severe cold streaks. What will be most interesting to me is where the ADP settles of those mid-tier catchers due to the instability of non-elite options last year.
Some players who were taken after Posey? Jonathan Lucroy's power was sapped by injury and his whole first half was atrocious. Devin Mesoraco’s body just broke down. Yan Gomes got hurt, but also looked overmatched at the plate. Yadier Molina struggled in general and then had to miss time for thumb surgery. Matt Wieters recovered Tommy John. Wilin Rosario got demoted. Owners burned by this might reach for those few who did well in 2015. Or maybe more owners will punt the position.
As for 2016, the top remains the same. Posey is in a league of his own, so he gets a tier of his own. Kyle Schwarber’s performance at the plate, as well as his minor league track record, has solidified him as the #2 catcher for all of us. His high range of probable outcomes, combined with his fellow catchers, earns himself a solo tier as well.
This is where the fun begins. The third tier brings Russell Martin, Lucroy, Brian McCann, and d’Arnaud. With the exception of Bill putting d’Arnaud at 7, we all have these four somewhere between three and six.
Martin’s aggressive swing and slot in a strong Toronto lineup carries a lot of weight. Lucroy has a track record backing him here, so you're hoping that the power returns with his health. McCann’s power stroke in the middle of a Yankee Stadium lineup gives him a strong floor, even if it comes with a poor average. D’Arnaud showed a strong bat and still has room for growth, but he only managed 268 plate appearances between injuries.
There is a debatable line to be drawn with these next names, as Yasmani Grandal, Mesoraco, and Salvador Perez each have their fleas. Grandal hit .221 against righties (.308 against lefties) and was so dinged up by the end of the year that his second half batting average was a paltry .162 (.282 in the first half). Mesoraco hit 25 bombs in 440 plate appearances in 2014 only to require left hip surgery after an injury-plagued 2015 left him unable to compete. How will he hold up over an entire season? Perez played 142 games, but simply put is a guy whose aggression really caps his production it seems. He also needs to get better at handling left-handed pitching. I think most of us ranked him here due to his relatively low ceiling, but his floor is higher than Mesoraco's.
Tier Five brings us two other options who have shown flashes of brilliance but are coming off of injury woes with Wieters and Gomes, and Stephen Vogt, who had his first relevant season at 30. Okay, that age jab was rude, and his finally getting real playing time may have contributed to his body tiring out by the second half when he fell off a cliff. Vogt’s July was awful (going 13 for 80), as was his final stretch, going 10 for 49 after he returned from a groin injury. Eleven of his 18 homers came in the first two months.
Wieters needs to show that he is capable of being the same 20-25 homer bat and won't split time with Caleb Joseph, but Camden Yards is a good place to call home for dingers. Gomes swung and missed on less pitches, but struck out quite a bit more and just generally seemed to be making poor contact (despite a 5% uptick in his zone contact rate). He’s still worth a shot, but I won't be reaching. These are the last guys I’d feel somewhat secure in rolling out as my catcher.
Tier Six contains guys with upside who would be solid options in two catcher leagues. Blake Swihart, who looked very good in his ~300 PAs last year considering his early call up, has that strong Boston lineup around him. Unfortunately, he may be splitting time with Ryan Hanigan as he improves his defense, and also has to deal with Christian Vazquez's presence depending on Vazquez's recovery.
Derek Norris fought through some injuries, but still, in 198 second half PAs he only managed three home runs and 17 RBIs and does not play in a strong lineup or park. Nick Hundley is a great play if you only start him when he’s at Coors. Seriously, in 211 PAs at Coors Hundley hit .355 with seven homers and 33 RBIs. Francisco Cervelli won’t carry your power department, but he flirted with hitting .300 and grabbing that late has value.
J.T. Realmuto generated some momentum with a modest power/speed combo and a good eye, I'm a fan of his. Welington Castillo will probably see his power regress a bit, but Chase Field is a healthy place for homers and he's got a swing that goes for the fences. You all might notice Harris’ #9 rank of Miguel Montero, who turns 33 in July but has a spot in that powerful Cubbies lineup. His ceiling is modest, but should be able to post some decent counting stats amidst the talent around him.
The other tiers have some names that have potential, but they don't have a spot at the table just yet. Be on the lookout for other positions in the coming days!
Catcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (January)
| Rank | Tier | Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Harris | Jeff | Bill |
| 1 | 1 | Buster Posey | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kyle Schwarber | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | Russell Martin | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | Jonathan Lucroy | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | 3 | Brian McCann | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | Travis d'Arnaud | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | Yasmani Grandal | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | Devin Mesoraco | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | Salvador Perez | 10 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | Matt Wieters | 17 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | Yan Gomes | 16 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | Stephen Vogt | 9 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| 13 | 6 | Blake Swihart | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
| 14 | 6 | Derek Norris | 11 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 19 |
| 15 | 6 | Nick Hundley | 14 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| 16 | 6 | Francisco Cervelli | 12 | 17 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 17 | 6 | Welington Castillo | 15 | 19 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 13 | 18 |
| 18 | 6 | J.T. Realmuto | 19 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 19 | 6 | Miguel Montero | 22 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 9 | 21 | 21 |
| 20 | 7 | JR Murphy | 18 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 23 |
| 21 | 7 | Yadier Molina | 24 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 15 |
| 22 | 7 | Wilson Ramos | 21 | 22 | 28 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| 23 | 7 | Robinson Chirinos | 20 | 27 | 24 | 21 | 25 | 24 | 22 |
| 24 | 7 | Dioner Navarro | 23 | 29 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 27 |
| 25 | 8 | Cameron Rupp | 27 | 26 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 25 | 24 |
| 26 | 8 | Hank Conger | 25 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 34 | 28 | 25 |
| 27 | 8 | Jason Castro | 30 | 25 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 30 |
| 28 | 8 | James McCann | 26 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 26 |
| 29 | 9 | A.J. Pierzynski | 29 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 29 | 30 | - |
| 30 | 9 | Chris Iannetta | 28 | 30 | 32 | - | 14 | 29 | 28 |
| - | 9 | Caleb Joseph | - | 32 | 26 | 29 | 36 | - | - |
| - | 9 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | - | 31 | 27 | - | 37 | - | - |
| - | 9 | Josh Phegley | 31 | - | 31 | - | 39 | - | - |
| - | 9 | Tyler Flowers | - | 33 | - | - | 38 | - | 29 |
| - | 9 | Kurt Suzuki | - | 34 | - | - | 33 | - | - |
| - | 9 | Geovany Soto | - | - | - | - | 40 | - | - |
| - | 9 | Curt Casali | - | - | - | - | 27 | - | - |
| - | 9 | Carlos Perez | - | - | - | - | 31 | - | - |
| - | 9 | Alex Avlia | - | - | - | - | 32 | - | - |
| - | 9 | Carlos Ruiz | - | - | - | - | 35 | - | - |
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