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Well, Week 12 was another upper-class finish for me being ranked #34 out of the 130 experts on FantasyPros, marking the eighth week in row finishing inside the top 50, seven of which were in the top 35. Being ranked #34 for the industry is good, but I’m itching to return to that top-10 class though.
Last week, Marcus Mariota and Andrew Luck did alright, but were not top-five plays. We were spot on in boosting Rob Kelley and James Starks though. We were also dead on with tempering expectations on Allen Robinson and propping up Rishard Matthews, as well as waving the red flag regarding Cameron Brate. Let’s see what will take us there in Week 12.
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Week 12 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis
When I sat down to do my ranks Tuesday night I was blown away, Aaron Rodgers was still staring me in the face at #3 in the consensus. I’ve dropped him to #9, because I just cannot get behind the name, the roster, or the system any longer. He’s still a low-end QB1, but this is not a top-five play. Primarily because this is not even close to a neutral matchup. Facing the Eagles is no easy task, but facing them in Philadelphia makes for a true no-fly zone. It was only two weeks ago when this Eagles defense limited the powerful Falcons offense to a measly 15 points in Philly, and I’m not wagering that Rodgers breaks the mold.
On the other side of the ball, I have Carson Wentz up five slots (#13 vs. consensus #18 ranking) because the Packers defense was already beaten up, and then they suffered a myriad of additional injuries on Sunday night against Washington. I know Wentz isn’t spectacular and he has the displeasure of throwing to Nelson Agholor, but they’re starting to lean on Zach Ertz more and seem to have found a bit of a rhythm with that.
Deeper down I have given Ryan Fitzpatrick a five-slot boost (#25 vs. consensus #30), right against that fringe QB2 territory. That’s not a ringing endorsement by any means, but I cannot rank him below the likes of Scott Tolzien and Jared Goff. The Patriots defense is not good, as they've given up the seventh-most fantasy points against QBs on average over the last four weeks. While they’ll likely play a lot harder against the Jets than they did against the 49ers, I still expect the free-swinging Fitz to be more serviceable than a backup and an uninspiring rookie.
Week 12 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis
This is another week where the top 10 is pretty good by me, but then we encounter some issues pretty quickly. I’ve put Rashad Jennings (#13 vs. #18 consensus) five spots up, which is apparently my standard move this week, as he’s looked rejuvenated lately and HC Ben McAdoo has to be loving it. Mix this in with a sweet matchup against the Browns, and you’ve got a stew going. This also leads to a Paul Perkins (#38 vs. #43 consensus) boost, as NYG may have this one in hand by the fourth quarter, which could prompt a healthy quarter-plus of solo work for the rookie.
There’s no ignoring that Jordan Howard (#25 vs. #17 consensus) and the Chicago Bears are screwed with the amount of injuries that they’ve endured. What Howard’s status comes down to here is how much you believe volume can save him. I am on the more pessimistic side of things, of course. The good news is that Howard out-snapped Jeremy Langford 46 to 18, but Langford still got some high-percentage looks. Howard is a safer PPR play thanks to the screen passes and check downs that he should see, but relying on yardage and touchdowns for fantasy points will likely lead to misery and woe.
Week 12 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis
It should come as no surprise that T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief have slipped a bit with the Andrew Luck news, and Stefon Diggs dropped too since he didn’t practice on Tuesday. Putting them aside, I have slipped Michael Crabtree (#16 vs. #12 consensus) and Demaryius Thomas (#20 vs. #15 consensus) a several slots down thanks to the former’s horrible case of the drops on Monday night and Thomas’ potentially dealing with Marcus Peters (should he return) and Trevor Siemian’s middling talent. It’s unlikely that you’re benching them, but DFS players should note the recent happenings. Hopefully Crabtree can rebound against Carolina’s subpar secondary, but I’m not pegging him in WR1 territory.
How about some happy news? We’ve got DeVante Parker up seven slots (#25 vs. #32 consensus) as the Dolphins get to feast on a San Francisco defense that is 28th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average against #1 receivers. I’m comfortable calling Parker the #1 here over Jarvis Landry. While I’m a bit concerned that the Dolphins will just run all over the 49ers, the state of their offensive line may not allow them to do it at 100%. Parker’s last two weeks have been strong, so perhaps he can replicate last season’s stretch run.
Week 12 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis
We already touched on my feelings about the Philadelphia offense and their recent usage of Zach Ertz, and therefore I’ve got him at #6 vs. a #10 consensus. It’s no secret that the Packers defense is not good, but they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points against tight ends this season and Ertz is getting lots of love. After seeing only 20 targets in his first five games of the season, he has now seen 26 in his last three – including 11 last week against Seattle. I couldn’t tell you why it took Doug Pederson and company this long to realize feeding Ertz is a good idea, but we’re finally here.
I’ve also got Week 11 hero Jared Cook up four slots (#15 vs. #19 consensus). This is actually more about the guys directly ahead of him, as Cameron Brate, Gary Barnidge and Coby Fleener all feel like lesser plays to me. That said, I believe that Cook showed Rodgers and HC Mike McCarthy that he is 100% and can be a solid weapon. Philadelphia has been good against the TE all season, but are only 11th in fantasy points allowed over the last four weeks. That’s good, but not a dealbreaker. With Josh Norman hopefully locking down Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook may just be that much more necessary to the Packers’ gameplan.
I’d rather talk more about the skill positions than include kicker or defense, as they are far less interesting to me. Feel free to send me a vitriolic message should you want them back, I’ll listen I swear.
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
