RADIO
Sample size, sample size, sample size. You hear fantasy pundits mutter this phrase constantly during the early weeks of the season. What exactly does it mean though? Simply put, having a small sample size means that we don't have enough information to make accurate predictions about a player's future performance. For running backs, this often means that early in the season, fantasy pundits and predictors don't feel like a back has gotten enough touches to judge their true talent and estimate what their year end stats may look like. Well, after week 3, we are starting to get to the point where the sample is becoming large enough to start making some accurate predictions about how the rest of the season is going to go.
The waiver wire is where league's can be won. Just last season, we saw players like Odell Beckham Jr., C.J. Anderson, and Justin Forsett be waiver wire adds that ended up top 10 at their respective positions. My goal on the waiver wire is to try to find players that, with the proper opportunity, can be top players at their positions. This ultimately creates value in two potential ways: either you are able to play the added player in a starting spot of your weekly lineup, or it gives you a trade chip to use to find help at a position of weakness.
Each week, this article will aim to highlight running backs that you should consider targeting on your league's waiver wire. I've split these players up into three tiers from most desirable to most desperate. Additionally, I've included players at the bottom of this list that I would be comfortable cutting as I don't see them contributing in a major way this season.
Cream of the Crop Running Backs for Week 4 Waiver Wire
These are running backs that I would add no matter what if they are available on your waiver wire. These players have a chance to be starters and weekly contributors to their NFL teams:
Karlos Williams (RB, BUF) - 31% owned on Fleaflicker
At this point, I believe that Karlos Williams is the top hand-cuff pickup available in the league (this is assuming that Ryan Mathews and Knile Davis are owned at greater than 50% as they are on Fleaflicker). In a week 3 blow out over the Dolphins (hey Harvard, what happened to that Miami Super Bowl prediction?), Williams got 12 carries and converted them into 110 yards and a touchdown. Williams has now scored in all three games this season and while he isn't getting quite enough touches to warrant a weekly flex play, he could certainly be used in a pinch during the bye weeks and would be a top 15 RB if LeSean McCoy were to ever miss time. For now, Williams owners will have to be content with his torrid 7.75 yards per carry off the bench.
Honorable Mentions: Ryan Mathews - 54% owned, Darren Sproles - 52% owned
Wait and See Running Backs for Week 4 Waiver Wire
These are running backs highly available on the waiver wire who you should consider stashing if you have room:
Lance Dunbar (RB, DAL) - 38% owned on Fleaflicker
I highlighted Dunbar in my Week 2 Last Minute Adds column and in a Waiver Wire Pickup profile, toting him as a potential fill in for the Dallas passing game with Dez Bryant out. Well, he certainly filled that role in week 3, hauling in 10 passes for 100 yards in a Dallas loss. Dunbar is still a risky play because his role as the third-down-pass-catching back is dependent on game situation, but he's clearly a part of the plan. With upcoming games against the Saints in the Superdome and the Patriots coming to Dallas, I'd expect the Cowboys to be down and needing to throw early and often. This could mean some big days for Dunbar, especially in a PPR format.
Antonio Andrews (RB, TEN) - 5% owned on Fleaflicker
Who? After a Week 1 multi TD game, it looked like Bishop Sankey finally had a stranglehold on the Titans starting RB job. After Terrance West fumbles in the first two weeks, it looked as if that stranglehold was that much stronger. However, Sankey's true talent has shined through the past few weeks, and that talent is all that bright. Antonio Andrews acted as the lead back against the Colts on Sunday and while his performance has to be taken with a grain of salt because of the Colts run D once again looking terrible this season, Andrews did look like a confident and competent back. He out-touched Sankey 13-7, racking up 61 total yards and a touchdown. Listen, the Titans RB job may be in flux all season, but Andrews gives you a chance at a starting running back which always has value.
Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA) - 4% owned on Fleaflicker
Marshawn Lynch had a very strange day in Seattle. First, he didn't come out of the locker room to start the game. Then, he left the game with a hamstring injury and never returned. Granted, the Seahawks handled the Bears easily and likely just wanted to get Lynch some rest, hamstring injuries always need to be noted as they tend to linger. Enter, Thomas Rawls who carried the ball 16 times for 104 yards, showing a burst that Lynch simply doesn't provide. Pete Carroll said that the Lynch injury was "nothing to be alarmed about," but it is at the very least interesting to see that it was Rawls, not Fred Jackson (only 4 touches), was the clear Lynch replacement. This is a true wait and see as we will have to watch how Lynch progresses throughout the week.
Honorable Mentions: Khiry Robinson (RB, NO) - 16% owned, Charles Sims (RB, TB) - 50% owned, Andre Williams - 14% owned, Duke Johnson - 34% owned, Ronnie Hillman - 36% owned, Alfred Blue - 23% owned, David Johnson - 33% owned, Darren McFadden - 36% owned
Hail Mary Running Backs for Week 4 Waiver Wire
These are desperation plays who shouldn't be starting for you. The injury bug, bye week troubles, or something else needs to be affecting your team to add these players:
Jonas Gray (RB, MIA) - 31% owned on Fleaflicker
Honestly, the Miami running game has been perplexing, and inneffective, all season. Lamar Miller was a second/third round draft pick in most leagues, and yet, he hasn't received more than 13 carries all season. He's only averaging 10 carries a game right now and with a paltry 3.5 yard per carry average, he probably doesn't deserve more. I just get the feeling the Joe Philbin and the Dolphins coaching staff don't like Miller. Gray was promoted from the practice squad this week, got 9 carries for 49 yards (in a blowout), and is the same guy who has a 200 yard, 4 TD game to his name from last season. I'm not sure where this is going, but it's at the very least intriguing.
Honorable Mentions: Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ) - 28% owned, Dexter McCluster (RB, TEN) - 11% owned, Theo Riddick (RB, DET) - 9% owned, Damien Williams (RB, MIA) - 23% owned, Chris Thompson - 0% owned
Running Backs to Consider Cutting for Week 4
These are players that I would be comfortable releasing for a "Cream of the Crop" or "Wait and See" player:
DeAngelo Williams (RB, PIT) - 78% owned in Fleaflicker
You got everything you wanted and more out of Williams in the first two weeks. He got one touch in LeVeon Bell's return and should not be rostered unless you want to handcuff Bell.
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