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WE HAVE BASEBALL!!!!! MLB and the MLBPA have finally agreed on a new CBA, which means players are reporting to Spring Training, and the season starts in less than a month. This also means fantasy baseball draft season is about to hit full speed ahead. We have been drafting for a few months, but now the “big” drafts begin, and finding values in your drafts will help you win your fantasy leagues.
Finding value in drafts comes in many forms. First, some players are free agents whose value will jump once they sign with a team. Some players should can a better role with their team this season which should lead to more value. Finally, some players bring a solid floor or are elite in a statistical category which brings value that could round out your team's roster.
This article will go over five hitters that bring draft day value to your team. I am basing the value on players with an NFBC OC ADP after pick 150 in drafts since February 22. Some players are veterans who bring an excellent floor to your roster, while others are younger players who could take the next step in 2022. So let’s take a look at five hitters to target as draft day values for your fantasy baseball teams.
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Eddie Rosario, Free Agent
ADP: 192.18
The last we saw of Rosario, he was helping the Atlanta Braves win the World Series. Rosario was off to a slow start in Cleveland, but he balled out after a trade to the Braves. In his 33 games with the Braves, Rosario hit .271 with 13 extra-base hits, including seven home runs. In addition, he showcased a .302 ISO and .903 OPS on his way to the playoffs.
The run with the Braves resembled the previous production from Rosario. From 2017 to 2019, he hit at least 24 home runs with a career-high 32 home runs in 2019. Rosario also hit .276 or better in those three seasons with at least 79 runs scored and 77 RBI. Rosario also brings 8+ steals to your fantasy roster, making him a nearly five-category contributor to your team.
Rosario is a free agent, but several teams could use a left-handed corner outfielder. He could also benefit from the universal DH brought into the 2022 season. When Rosario signs, especially if he is signed to a favorable spot, his ADP will skyrocket. Draft Rosario now at a discount before the rest of your league jumps his ADP when he finally signs with a team.
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 225.09
There have been many fantasy players waiting for Happ to break out, and he pretty much did last season. He hit 25 home runs and stole nine bases over his 148 games. His 11.2% barrel rate and 41% hard-hit rate were solid from the Cubs outfielder. Happ’s quality of contact and power is legit, but his plate discipline and batting average can be a concern.
Last season, Happ struck out 29.2% of the time and has struck out at least 25% of the time every season with the Cubs. The strikeouts and lack of plate discipline have led to a low batting average, including a career-low .226 last season. However, there is hope for an improved average as Happ’s BABIP was also a career-low of .281. His BABIP has been .316 or higher in three of the last four seasons, and that has led to a batting average of .253 or higher in three of those seasons as well.
If Happ can improve his batting average, he could be an absolute steal this late in drafts. He should again hit in the middle of the Cubs’ lineup, leading to plenty of run production. Happ should be in line for 25 or so home runs and even toss in nearly ten stolen bases to go with 70+ runs and RBI. Happ can bring a ton of value to your fantasy roster later in drafts.
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 252.36
Sure, he is not the Blackmon of old. However, it is doubtful that the Rockies 35-year-old outfielder will hit 29+ home runs from 2016 to 2019. You are hoping for 15+ home runs with the potential to hit 20, which would be gravy. You are drafting Blackmon for an excellent batting average and plenty of run production.
Blackmon only struck out 15.6% of the time last season and has never struck out more than 19.3% of his career. With such excellent contact skills, Blackmon has hit at least .270 in every season since 2012. Finding a player with a .270+ batting average later in your drafts is incredibly difficult, and Blackmon can do that.
Blackmon should also bring 70+ runs and RBI, which could help round out your team as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Do not be an ageist; draft Blackmon if you look for serious batting average help later in your drafts.
Tommy Pham, Free Agent
ADP: 266.36
Pham has dropped tremendously in drafts this season. In previous seasons, Pham was drafted 100+ picks earlier, and the drop this season just isn’t justified. Part of the drop in ADP is that Pham is still a free agent. The other factor is a down season for Pham, which saw him hit only .229 in 155 games. Many hate the term unlucky, but Pham was just that as his xBA was .258, and his other xStats stood out in a big way.
Pham’s average was not excellent, but he still hit 15 home runs while stealing 14 bases. From 2017 to 2019, Pham hit at least 21 home runs and stole 20+ bases in two of those seasons. His contact quality was still excellent in 2021 with a 10% barrel rate which was his best since 2016, and a hard-hit rate of 46.7%. Pham should once again bring 15/15 upside to your fantasy team with the potential for a 20/20 season which you won’t find this late in your fantasy drafts.
Jeimer Candelario, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 271.36
Candelario is coming off an outstanding 2021 season for the Tigers. He hit .271 with 16 home runs, 75 runs scored, and 67 RBI. He will not steal you any bases, but he should be a strong contributor in the other four ROTO categories. Candelario barreled the ball 9% of the time to go with a 39.1% hard-hit rate, which proves his production was no fluke.
I love Candelario the most because there is more that we could see in the power department. Sure, he only hit 16 home runs, but he also hit 42 doubles, among the best in baseball. He pulled the ball nearly 41% of the time but also hit the ball up the middle almost 36% of the time. If he could pull the ball a bit more, some of those doubles could turn into home runs.
Sure, Comerica Park does suppress home runs and leads to more doubles, but a slight change in Candelario’s spray chart could be what you need for 20+ home runs, leading to more runs and RBI. The third base position is shallow this season, and getting Candelario late in your draft could be a game-changer. At worse, you should be able to pencil in a solid batting average and 15 home runs, but there is a ton of upside for the 28-year-old, so draft him late for all that value.
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