RADIO
Usually I open this with some snarky comment regarding Devonta Freeman, but this is just beyond me now. He's good, and if you've been riding him lately, you are probably doing well.
Week 6 doesn't actually have a lot of super expensive guys that are in plus spots. Jamaal Charles is gone. Julio Jones went on Thursday. Odell Beckham is dealing with a hamstring injury and is a question mark heading into a Monday night game. Antonio Brown's upside has been murdered lately by the play of Mike Vick. Demaryius Thomas has yet to go off. It's a very interesting landscape, and while there are certainly a lot of expensive plays that you'll want on your team, I see a lot of diversity being possible thanks to many of these studs rocking some fleas heading into Week 6.
This means that finding deeper difference makers is all the more important, as 5x value from someone who isn't on many owners' radars could vault you thousands of spots as people buy heavily into the few studs that are in good spots.
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Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ): $5,000 - vs. WAS
Here's a minimum salary play for a guy who is coming off of a bye week, so Fitzy is a perfect fit for this column. There was a ton of talk last week surrounding the Falcons' passing attack against the Redskins defense, which naturally did not pan out well. While the Redskins defense did do a good job of containing the Falcons, it would be a mistake to just totally flip flop on the perception of the Redskins. There is still an exploitable matchup here. Even after last week's effort, the Redskins are graded out by ProFootballFocus as having the 22nd best pass coverage rating...which doesn't really deserve the word "best" thrown in there. Of course they also have Washington ranked as 21st against the run, so that whole "vaunted run defense" might be cracking a bit as well. Regardless, the Redskins secondary is beat up, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are both great receivers, and for $5,000 one can't complain about a great matchup like this.
Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF): $5,000 - vs. BAL
We saw Kaepernick do pretty well against the Giants in last week's game to the tune of 23 completions on 35 attempts for 262 yards and two touchdowns. He showed that he is still capable of playing quarterback as long as he isn't rolling out to his left. Baltimore has been beaten like a drum by opposing quarterbacks, coughing up an all league performance to Josh McCown last week, so Kaepernick is automatically in the conversation by virtue of the Ravens' secondary. The 49ers' running backs are both nursing their own respective injuries as of today, and it may very well fall on Kaepernick's arm and his legs to win the game against Baltimore. It isn't as though the 49ers defense looks as though it is going to win them the game (25th overall according to PFF).
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Sam Bradford, $6,000 vs. NYG, Blake Bortles, $5,200 vs. HOU.
Week 6 Running Back Sleepers
Lamar Miller (RB, MIA): $4,300 – @TEN
Many people may still be extremely lukewarm or ice cold on rostering any Miami Dolphins until the Dolphins show that they can be a competent offense. If you're looking to take a risk, here's the latest from Lamar Miller when asked about what new head coach Dan Campbell told his squad: “He pretty much told the whole team that we have to run the ball and stop the run”. Miller also noted that he has to be more decisive when he runs, because not everyone can pull off the Le'Veon Bell look obviously. Miller doesn't really have any challengers to his running game, and as the Dolphins look to build from the bottom up and re-establish their foundation, Miller may very well get to punch in one or two touchdowns and see better usage out of the backfield. The Titans have been a surprising defense so far, but most of their success is being generated by their pass rush and coverage, whereas their run defense is below average. Look to Miller as a cheap bellcow back who has a high ceiling.
Javorius Allen (RB, BAL): $4,300 – @SF.
The rationale here is pretty simple. The Baltimore Ravens are pretty banged up and the San Francisco 49ers defense is playing poorly. Steve Smith Sr. has said that his chances of playing this weekend are low. The backfield is a different story though, as Lorenzo Taliaferro was placed on the injured reserve as he must have encountered a serious setback with his foot injury, and Justin Forsett is still not 100% after suffering an ankle injury towards the end of last week's game against the Browns, though it should be noted that he practiced on Friday. Enter: Javorius Allen, also known as Buck Allen. He should get a decent amount of looks as Forsett was already not getting the bulk of goal line and short yardage work, and now Allen has no competition for spell-back duties.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Chris Thompson, $3,300 @NYJ, Ameer Abdullah, $4,000 vs. CHI, Darren Sproles, $3,800 vs. NYG.
Sensing a trend? Theo Riddick appears to have suffered a groin injury in practice for the Lions and so it looks like Abdullah will have passing down duties against Chicago. Getting cheaper passing down backs on DraftKings is always the move if you're going cheap but still hunting that upside. Bonus points if their team is going against a strong run defense that needs to be beat outside of the tackles.
Week 6 Wide Receiver Sleepers
Anquan Boldin (WR, SF): $4,300 - vs. BAL
Torrey Smith, WR, 49ers: $4,200 - vs. BAL
If you're taking Colin Kaepernick and want to stack him with someone, Anquan Boldin was clearly Colin's hot read last week when things started rolling for San Francisco's passing offense. Boldin saw 12 targets, which he turned into eight receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. Compare this with Torrey Smith only getting two targets last week, and the fact that Boldin is only $100 more than Smith, it becomes clear that Anquan is the play for most rational purposes. Though, it should be noted that Smith is the huge boom or bust play if you're really sniffing out that tournament dice roll. Plus you've got the revenge game narrative going here as Smith gets to show Baltimore what they let go.
Cecil Shorts (WR, HOU): $3,200 – @JAX
Speaking of revenge games and "narrative street", Shorts also goes against his old team here. Now for those of you who don't buy into that, Shorts also just has a genuinely "plus" matchup against one of the league's worst pass coverage teams according to ProFootballFocus (28th overall). This game very well might end up going to same way that Tampa Bay-Jacksonville went last week, with a low projected point total for two below average teams where they just open it up against one another. Everyone is drooling over DeAndre Hopkins and Arian Foster, but Shorts may very well fall into some great numbers with very low ownership.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Marquess Wilson, $4,000 @DET (if Jeffery or Royal sits), Dwayne Harris, $3,100 @PHI (If Odell Beckham Jr. sits), Rueben Randle, $4,400 @PHI (if he plays).
Week 6 Tight End Sleepers
Derek Carrier (TE, WAS): $2,500 - @NYJ
While one would like to have seen Carrier get more than three targets last week, he still turned them into two receptions and a touchdown. That was enough to put him over the 3x value threshold that many people set as their bar for making selections in DFS. This matchup should also see Carrier get more usage, as the Jets have a very good run defense which is paired with two very good cornerbacks. This means that pass catching running backs and tight ends should be an emphasized point of attack against them (Chris Thompson was listed earlier).
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI): $2,900 - vs. NYG
The Giants don't have the names and notoriety that the Jets have, but their defense has been profiling pretty similarly. They have a very strong run defense unit, and their cornerbacks on the outside are typically strong (though now they are without Prince Amukamura and their slot corner Trumaine McBride missed practice as well, so digest that too for your DFS teams), but they are very susceptible over the middle with inexperienced and overmatched safeties and linebackers. Last week against the Saints, Ertz got five receptions for 60 yards on seven targets (good for 11 DraftKings points), and if he can replicate that and tack on a touchdown then you've made great value.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Richard Rodgers, $3,100 vs. SD, Larry Donnell, $2,800 @PHI.
Week 6 Defense Sleepers
Minnesota Vikings, D/ST: $2,900 - vs. KC
There is so much hype surrounding Charcandrick West and what he might do, that it's overlooked how the Chiefs offense ran through Jamaal Charles who is now gone. Not to mention that the Vikings themselves have been playing very well on defense this year, being graded out by PFF as being seventh best so far in 2015. Tack on two great returns in Cordarelle Patterson and Marcus Sherels and a struggling Chiefs defense that should see the Vikings having a lead and playing at home, and that is a formula I want to be in on.
Chicago Bears, D/ST: $2,400 – @DET
If you're going to punt, you could consider the Browns at $2,200 against Peyton Manning and the Broncos (that's weird to type), but I'd suggest looking at the Bears against the woeful Detroit Lions. You want to guess who is ranked right behind the Vikings in overall defense according to PFF? It's the Bears, sitting there at eighth. That being said, FootballOutsiders DVOA metric still has the Bears as the 28th overall defense, but that is still relying on 27% of its weight from preseason data (you can read more about the breakdown and see the numbers here). The point here is that while I wouldn't feel comfortable saying the Bears are the eighth best defense in the league, it appears that if you want to take a chance on a cheap defense, there is merit to playing Chicago in a matchup against a Detroit team that is making a lot of mistakes.
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