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Welcome to RotoBaller's Tiered Rankings for the third race of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. For those that are viewing these rankings for the first time, here is how the sheet works.
There are two sets of DFS tiered rankings featured below, with one set of rankings focused on DraftKings DFS contests while the other is focused on FanDuel. Every driver that will officially be starting in this week's race will be listed in a particular tier based on their salary for each site. The tiers feature drivers that have similar price ranges and are ranked based on their final outlook, which is determined by a combination of a driver's expected performance for this week's race as well as their salary.
These ranks will help you make tough lineup calls, telling you which drivers must be started over others in each tier. DFS players from any skill level can use these rankings in order to create a lineup that will cash out.
This week's race at Homestead-Miami Speedway will be the first of numerous races this season at 1.5 Mile Intermediate tracks. In order to create the best possible lineup for Intermediate tracks, DFS players must anchor their lineups around dominators, who will lead plenty of laps. Drivers with place differential upside are essential to place in lineups this week with a few historically strong racers starting deep in the field. This year marks the second season where Homestead is not the last race of the Cup Series season, but it is the first time the site hosts an event for this series in February. Good luck RotoBallers!
Premium Tiered Rankings - NASCAR DFS
Normally, you can expect these rankings to be published on Thursdays or Fridays for every week that there is a Cup Series race, depending on the schedule of pre-race events. These rankings will also be updated as pre-race events progress throughout the week when applicable and also will include an analysis of each tier of drivers at the conclusion of all pre-race events.
* = This driver will be starting from the rear in this week's race
DraftKings Rankings Analysis
DraftKings Tier 1: Most of the favorites to win this week’s race at Homestead are in this tier including two-time winner, Kyle Busch. In every race since 2015 at the site, the driver of the No. 18 Toyota placed sixth or better. Since 2018 at HMS, Busch ranks third in Average Running Position (5.1), second in Laps Led (148), and Driver Rating (115.9), and first in Laps in the Top 15 (795). Busch provides the most place differential upside of all drivers in this group with his starting position (24th) and must be regarded as a top pick for all lineups. Kyle Larson historically has been great at HMS with three top-5 finishes while scoring positive PD five times in seven starts. Larson now has the best equipment of his Cup Series career since joining Hendrick Motorsports this season. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet also presents plenty of PD upside from his starting position (17th). Larson’s teammate and last year’s runner-up at Homestead, Chase Elliott, is another quality choice to recommend. Elliott led the third-most laps in his last HMS start (27) and picked up four finishes of 11th or better at the site in his career. Since he starts 11th this week, Elliott brings forth decent PD upside. Martin Truex Jr. must be highly considered for lineups as well this week. In his last four starts at Homestead, the driver of the No. 19 Toyota earned three top-2 finishes. Since 2018 at the Miami track, Truex is first in Fastest Laps (98), second in Laps in the Top 15 (784), third in Laps Led (123), and fourth in Average Running Position (5.9) and Driver Rating (112.9). As a driver that regularly competes for top-5 finishes at Homestead, Truex will capture a small amount of PD from his starting position this week (Ninth). Although Ryan Blaney has more PD upside than Elliott and Truex from his starting position (14th) for this weekend, he is more inconsistent than both racers at Homestead with only one top-10 finish in six career starts. Other than last year’s race at HMS, Kevin Harvick placed in the Top 10 in every race at the site since 2008. Despite his consistency, Harvick ranks lowest from this tier as the riskiest pick from this tier based on starting position (Fourth).
DraftKings Tier 2: Out of all drivers in this tier, Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron is the top recommendation for DFS lineups at Homestead. Byron earned positive PD twice at the site since 2018 while scoring his first career top-10 in 2020. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet offers the most PD upside of this group because of his starting position (31st). Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano are the other top choices from this tier to highly consider. Hamlin dominated last year’s race at Homestead by winning and leading the most laps (137). Since 2018 at HMS out of active racers, Hamlin ranks third in Laps in the Top 15 (773) and Fastest Laps (72), second in Average Running Position (4.9), and first in Laps Led (180) and Driver Rating (118.1). Hamlin is one of the top favorites to win this weekend and will lead plenty of laps early from his starting position (First). Logano attained five finishes of sixth or better including a win in 2018 at HMS. The driver of the No. 22 is fourth of active drivers since 2018 in Laps Led (107) and seventh in Laps in the Top 15 (580). This week, Logano starts second and his equipment with Team Penske points to a finish in the Top 5.
DraftKings Tier 3: The first two drivers of this tier, Tyler Reddick and Matt DiBenedetto, are greatly worth consideration from this tier. Reddick has two wins at Homestead in the Xfinity Series and scored a fourth-place finish in his only Cup start at the site. HMS is one of Reddick’s favorite NASCAR tracks and will start 35th this week. Expect the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet to gain plenty of PD and finish in the Top 10 based on his Richard Childress Racing equipment and experience in other series at Homestead. In his Cup Series career at HMS, DiBenedetto clinched positive PD in every race and two top-20 finishes. He will start 37th in this weekend’s race and provides more PD upside than the majority of the field. DiBenedetto’s history indicates that he will not finish better than Reddick at Homestead, but look for the driver of the No. 21 to settle into the Top 20 with a chance at a top-15 finish based on his equipment from Wood Brothers Racing.
DraftKings Tier 4: A few drivers from this tier make for great plays with PD upside including the first three drivers, Ross Chastain, Austin Dillon, and Chase Briscoe. Chastain has the most PD upside out of these first three drivers due to his starting position this week (32nd). He also has two finishes with positive PD in his Cup career at HMS and two top-10 finishes in the Xfinity Series at the site. Dillon placed 12th or better while procuring positive PD in each of his last five Homestead Cup starts. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet starts 22nd, which gives him lower PD upside than Chastain or Briscoe, but he is still one of the most consistent drivers at HMS from this tier. In the Xfinity Series, Briscoe won the first Homestead race of 2020 and finished seventh after coming back from seven laps down in the second race at the site. Briscoe will start 30th and will score a top-20 finish with a chance at a top-15 based on equipment and Xfinity experience. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2018, Aric Almirola captured two top-10 finishes and placed fifth last year at Homestead. The driver of the No. 10 Ford offers decent PD upside from his starting position this week (16th). Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell, and Erik Jones are the remaining drivers worth considering. Wallace earned two finishes with positive place differential in three starts at HMS while his starting position presents decent PD upside this week (19th). Last season at the site, Wallace picked up his first career top-15 finish in the Cup Series. In his only Cup start at HMS in 2020, Bell gained an eighth-place finish with positive PD. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota also has positive momentum from racking up his first Cup Series victory last week at Daytona. Although he is the riskiest play of all drivers in this tier due to starting position (Third), Bell’s equipment is still better than most here and should contend for a top-10 finish. In four starts at Homestead, Jones has one podium finish with positive PD. He also acquired four top-10 finishes in his last six starts at 1.5 Mile Intermediate tracks. This week, the driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet holds solid PD upside from starting 18th.
DraftKings Tier 5: There are not a lot of ideal options to roster drivers from this tier at Homestead this weekend. Daniel Suarez, who starts 21st, puts forward decent PD upside, and cap flexibility is the best pick here. Suarez picked up positive PD in his last two HMS starts and scored his best career finish at the site in 2019 (14th). Although it will be his first start at an Intermediate track with his new team, Team Trackhouse, Suarez picked up a better finish at Daytona’s road course last week (16th) than last season with his previous team. Expect Suarez to compete for a top-15 finish based on his experience and improved equipment from last season. Ryan Newman is the other great value option of this tier for Homestead. In 19 starts at the Miami track, the driver of the No. 6 Ford has 12 top-20 finishes including three of his last four races. Newman provides adequate PD upside from his starting position and will finish in the Top 20 as indicated by his equipment and history. Regarding the other four drivers in this tier, other racers with better equipment and more experience start behind them, therefore expect them to lose PD.
DraftKings Tier 6: DFS Players must avoid rostering drivers from this tier as much as possible. Most of the drivers in this tier have inferior equipment that will finish many laps behind those in other tiers or are start and park drivers that will not finish the entire race. DFS players should only need to start drivers from this tier for the cap flexibility from starting multiple drivers in the first two tiers. If you must choose a driver here, start Corey LaJoie or Justin Haley since they have the best equipment of this tier, or Quin Houff who has no PD downside due to starting last this weekend.
FanDuel Rankings Analysis
FanDuel Tier 1: Similarly to DraftKings, most of the favorites to win this week’s race at Homestead are in this tier including two-time winner, Kyle Busch. In every race since 2015 at the site, the driver of the No. 18 Toyota placed sixth or better. Since 2018 at HMS, Busch ranks third in Average Running Position (5.1), second in Laps Led (148), and Driver Rating (115.9), and first in Laps in the Top 15 (795). Busch provides the most place differential upside of all drivers in this group with his starting position (24th) and must be considered for all lineups. Last year’s runner-up at Homestead, Chase Elliott, is another quality choice to recommend from this tier. Elliott led the third-most laps in his last HMS start (27) and picked up four finishes of 11th or better at the site in his career. Since he starts 11th this week, Elliott brings forth decent PD upside. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are the other top choices from this tier to highly consider. Hamlin dominated last year’s race at Homestead by winning and leading the most laps (137). Since 2018 at HMS out of active racers, Hamlin ranks third in Laps in the Top 15 (773) and Fastest Laps (72), second in Average Running Position (4.9), and first in Laps Led (180) and Driver Rating (118.1). Hamlin is one of the top favorites to win this weekend and will lead plenty of laps early from his starting position (First). In his last four starts at Homestead, Truex earned three top-2 finishes. Since 2018 at the Miami track, the driver of the No. 19 Toyota is first in Fastest Laps (98), second in Laps in the Top 15 (784), third in Laps Led (123), and fourth in Average Running Position (5.9) and Driver Rating (112.9). As a driver that regularly competes for top-5 finishes at Homestead, Truex will capture a small amount of PD from his starting position this week (Ninth). Other than last year’s race at HMS, Kevin Harvick placed in the Top 10 in every race at the site since 2008. Despite his consistency, Harvick ranks lowest from this tier due to his high starting position (Fourth) providing PD downside as other racers are more favored to win than him based on recent races.
FanDuel Tier 2: Out of all drivers in this tier, Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson is the top recommendation for DFS lineups at Homestead. Kyle Larson historically has been great at HMS with three top-5 finishes while scoring positive PD five times in seven starts. Larson now has the best equipment of his Cup Series career since joining Hendrick Motorsports this season. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet also presents plenty of PD upside from his starting position (17th). Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are the other top choices from this tier to highly consider. Logano attained five finishes of sixth or better including a win in 2018 at HMS. The driver of the No. 22 is fourth of active drivers since 2018 in Laps Led (107) and seventh in Laps in the Top 15 (580). This week, Logano starts second and his equipment with Team Penske points to a finish in the Top 5. Although Blaney puts forth more PD upside than Logano from his starting position (14th) for this weekend, he is more inconsistent than both Logano and Larson at Homestead with only one top-10 finish, which he obtained last season, in six career starts.
FanDuel Tier 3: The first two drivers of this tier, Tyler Reddick and William Byron are greatly worth consideration from this tier. Reddick has two wins at Homestead in the Xfinity Series and scored a fourth-place finish in his only Cup start at the site. HMS is one of Reddick’s favorite NASCAR tracks and will start 35th this week. Expect the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet to gain plenty of PD and finish in the Top 10 based on his Richard Childress Racing equipment and experience in other series at Homestead. Byron earned positive PD twice at the site since 2018 while scoring his first career top-10 in 2020. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet offers better PD upside than most of this group from his starting position (31st). Austin Dillon placed 12th or better while procuring positive PD in each of his last five Homestead Cup starts. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet starts 22nd, which gives him lower PD upside than Reddick or Byron, but he is still one of the most consistent drivers at HMS from this tier. Christopher Bell is the only other driver to consider for lineups in this tier. In his only Cup start at HMS in 2020, Bell gained an eighth-place finish with positive PD. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota also has positive momentum from racking up his first Cup Series victory last week at Daytona. Although he is the riskiest play of all drivers in this tier due to starting position (Third), Bell’s equipment is still strong enough to contend for a top-10 finish.
FanDuel Tier 4: Just like DraftKings, a couple of drivers from this tier make for great plays with PD upside including the first three drivers, Ross Chastain, Matt DiBenedetto, and Chase Briscoe. Chastain has the most PD upside out of these first three drivers due to his starting position this week (32nd). He also has two finishes with positive PD in his Cup career at HMS and two top-10 finishes in the Xfinity Series at the site. In his Cup Series career at HMS, DiBenedetto clinched positive PD in every race and two top-20 finishes. He will start 37th in this weekend’s race and provides more PD upside than the majority of the field. Look for the driver of the No. 21 to settle into the Top 20 with a chance at a top-15 finish based on his equipment from Wood Brothers Racing and history at HMS. In the Xfinity Series, Briscoe is the most recent Homestead winner and finished seventh after coming back from seven laps down in the second 2020 race. Briscoe will start 30th and will score a top-20 finish with a chance at a top-15 based on equipment and Xfinity experience. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2018, Aric Almirola captured two top-10 finishes as well as placing fifth last year at Homestead. The driver of the No. 10 Ford offers decent PD upside from his starting position this week (16th). Bubba Wallace and Erik Jones are the remaining drivers worth considering from this tier. Wallace’s starting position presents decent PD upside at HMS (19th), where he has two finishes with positive place differential. Last season at the site, Wallace picked up his first career top-15 finish in the Cup Series. In four starts at Homestead, Jones has one podium finish with positive PD. He also acquired four top-10 finishes in his last six starts at 1.5 Mile Intermediate tracks. This week, the driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet holds solid PD upside from starting 18th.
FanDuel Tier 5: Comparable to DraftKings, There are not a lot of ideal options to roster drivers from this tier at Homestead this weekend. Daniel Suarez, who starts 21st, puts forward decent PD upside, and cap flexibility is the best pick here. Suarez picked up positive PD in his last two HMS starts and scored his best career finish at the site in 2019 (14th). Although it will be his first start at an Intermediate track with his new team, Team Trackhouse, Suarez picked up a better finish at Daytona’s road course last week (16th) than last season with his previous team. Expect Suarez to compete for a top-15 finish based on his experience and improved equipment from last season. Ryan Newman is the other great value option of this tier for Homestead. In 19 starts at the Miami track, the driver of the No. 6 Ford has 12 top-20 finishes including three of his last four races. Newman provides adequate PD upside from his starting position and will finish in the Top 20 as indicated by his equipment and history. Regarding the other four drivers in this tier, other racers with better equipment and more experience start behind them, therefore expect them to lose PD.
FanDuel Tier 6: DFS Players must avoid rostering drivers from this tier as much as possible. Most of the drivers in this tier have inferior equipment that will finish many laps behind those in other tiers or are start and park drivers that will not finish the entire race. DFS players should only need to start drivers from this tier for the cap flexibility from starting multiple drivers in the first two tiers. If you need to pick a driver here, start Ryan Preece, Corey LaJoie, or Justin Haley since they have the best equipment of this tier or Quin Houff who has no PD downside due to starting last this weekend.
