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MLB DFS Pitching Primer for 4/13
We will be releasing our premium MLB DFS pitching picks every single day of the week for the entire MLB and fantasy baseball season and postseason, at least a few hours before games begin that day.
Welcome to another baseball Tuesday, I'm Jon Anderson and I'll be taking you through the pitching primer today.
This is one of the craziest pitching slates I have seen. There are aces aplenty on the board and price tags spread all over the place. It's a very, very interesting group of pitchers to analyze, so let's get into it.
High-Priced Aces
These are your studs who are worth paying up for on this slate. It makes sense to deploy these guys as your cash game plays on FanDuel and as your SP1 on DraftKings based on their high floor/ceiling combination.
Shane Bieber ($11,200 FD, $10,700 DK) vs. White Sox
Any time Bieber is toeing the rubber, he is going to be included in this section. While his ERA does not look very Bieberesque right now, the Cleveland righty has piled up 24 strikeouts in two starts to lead the league. His strikeout rate since 2019 stands at 33.5%, but since the start of 2020 he's been above 40%, possibly making him the best DraftKings starting pitcher in the league (since strikeouts mean so much on that site). Tonight, he gets a match-up with the White Sox. This is usually a daunting task but without the likes of Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez in the lineup, their collective statistics make them look like a middle-of-the-road unit (24% strikeout rate, .402 slugging percentage, 27 PA/HR).
The biggest reason to fade Bieber, and it's not even a very good one, is the fact that he's matched up with Lucas Giolito. Bieber is just a slight favorite in this one at -107, the odds of him getting the win bonus are lower than usual. With all these aces on the board, I think the ownership on Bieber should be pretty low, so if you think he will lead the slate in points scored you should punch him into your lineup.
Trevor Bauer ($11,000 FD, $10,200 DK) vs. Rockies
I do believe facing the Dodgers away from Coors to be the best match-up a pitcher can have this season. We will see if that's true, but so far the Rockies lineups has generated just four runs and a putrid 1.18 DraftKings points per plate appearance mark through three games away from home. Now they face Trevor Bauer in Dodgers Stadium. In two starts, Bauer has thrown 13 innings and struck out 20 batters while allowing six hits and three walks. He has cleared the 25 fantasy point mark each time, and I would expect more of that today.
The question is how much do you value the win bonus? Bauer is one of the biggest favorites you will ever find in this game at -342 right now. He has the same strikeout upside as Bieber, and a much better match-up, but gives up more hits and walks on average. Their prices are nearly the same, but I think I am likely to take the few hundred dollar discount for Bauer in this spot.
Lucas Giolito ($9,800 FD, $9,800 DK) vs. Indians
On the other side of Bieber is Giolito, who is a super-stud ace in his own right with a 33.1% strikeout rate and a 3.51 xFIP since 2019. He allows walks at a slightly above average rate (8.5%), and gets faces off with a Cleveland lineup that limits strikeouts (20% collectively).
The most appealing thing about Giolito is the price discount. He is the cheapest of this "big three" on FanDuel by a large margin, but only a small step behind on DraftKings. Because of that, I am recommending Giolito more on FanDuel and less on DraftKings.
Mid-Tier Pivots
These are potentially underpriced and/or just "safe" options to play if you don't have the money for stud pitchers.
Jack Flaherty ($8,200 FD, $8,100 DK) vs. Nationals
The tough match-up for Flaherty along with the presence of the rest of these aces means the price came down. This is a really low tag for Flaherty, who has a 29.4% strikeout rate and 3.67 xFIP since 2019. The Nats lineup is finally all getting back in business, as Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell rejoined the team yesterday. That makes the Nationals lineup pretty scary all the way down. They have a collective .420 slugging percentage and an average 22% strikeout rate. Flaherty is good enough to put up a big number here, and it wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world for him to lead the slate in points scored, which would be pretty huge priced a few thousand below the top arms.
I'll be ignoring Flaherty in cash games, but there's a strong case to be made for his upside in tournaments.
Brandon Woodruff ($8,800 FD, $7,500 DK) vs. Cubs
Another stud seeing his price forced down by those above him. Woodruff already put up a 31 spot on the Cubs lineup last week with seven innings, one hit, and eight strikeouts. Since 2019 he has a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate with a great 46% ground-ball rate. Woody should prove to be one of the most reliable pitchers in the league this year, and he seems to have more strikeout upside than he's given credit for. On DraftKings, this price is criminal. He's priced just $100 above Ryan Yarbrough and $300 above Jake Odorizzi. That doesn't make a lot of sense.
The most important part of the game of DFS is price, and Woodruff here is one of the most underpriced pitchers you'll be seeing.
Luis Castillo ($8,400 FD, $7,100 DK) vs. Giants
It doesn't stop after Woodruff, Castillo is also seeing a near career-low salary on this slate (on DraftKings at least). He is priced below guys like Duffy, Hendricks, Yarbrough, and Odorizzi. It's strange.
Since 2019, Castillo has a 28.6% strikeout rate with a 9.5% walk rate and 56% ground-ball rate. He had a rough go of it Opening Day (which may be a big part of this price tag), but bounced back nicely against the Pirates in his second start. Castillo is a great pitcher and it's just silliness to see his price this low.
Bargain Bin
These are cheap pitchers with upside, but often big risk as well.
Max Fried ($7,600 FD, $6,500 DK) vs. Marlins
Let me first say that I think it's silly to even be looking past Castillo today. We already talked about six names up there with a wide price range, so I really think you can find what you need from that group of pitchers. However, if you need to come down even more, here is Max Fried at a new low price tag for him as well. He had a rough outing last time against the Nationals, but are you really going to let that skew your view of him? The guy has been rock solid for two seasons now, so investing at $6,500 makes a lot of sense in normal circumstances.
The problem is opportunity cost. These SP slots are valuable, and by slotting Fried in there you're robbing of yourself of the chance to play one of the above guys with much higher upside. Fried is a nice piece if you really want to stack up an expensive offense like the Dodgers or something, but otherwise I think I'll be making my lineups work with the pitchers above him here.
Cash Game Rankings
- Trevor Bauer
- Shane Bieber
- Brandon Woodruff
GPP Rankings
- Luis Castillo
- Trevor Bauer
- Jack Flaherty
