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MLB DFS Pitching Primer for 4/15
We will be releasing our premium MLB DFS pitching picks every single day of the week for the entire MLB and fantasy baseball season and postseason, at least a few hours before games begin that day.
After a few days with awesome slates for pitching, we have a dud here on this fine Thursday with just a five-game main slate without much exciting going on on the pitching side. Here are the guys standing out right now relative to the field:
High-Priced Aces
These are your studs who are worth paying up for on this slate. It makes sense to deploy these guys as your cash game plays on FanDuel and as your SP1 on DraftKings based on their high floor/ceiling combination.
Julio Urias ($9,600 FD, $10,100 DK) vs. Rockies
In a normal situation, you would never want to pay this price tag for Urias. While he can be a really solid real-life pitcher, he comes up pretty short for DFS purposes most of the time. This is because of his low strikeout rate (23% since 2019). You are really looking for guys that can rack up double-digit strikeouts on these DFS sites (especially DraftKings), and Urias is not likely to do so. The good news is that the Dodgers let him throw 95 pitches in his first outing, and have even moved him up a day ahead of Walker Buehler to make this start against the Rockies. That shows some confidence in his workload this year that we hadn't previously seen.
The best news for Urias is the match-up with the light hitting Rockies away from Coors. This is a very poor offense in normal altitude, and the Dodgers and Giants pitching staffs have already benefited from it. It's a pretty safe bet that Urias delivers five to six strong innings for you tonight, and he's a great bet for the win bonus.
Rich Hill ($7,00 FD, $9,000 DK) vs. Rangers
It's not often you get the chance to play a 41-year-old pitcher at $9,000 so you'd better jump on it today. Hill looked pretty good in his last start striking out seven hitters over six innings while giving up four runs on just four hits. He put up a solid 12% swinging-strike rate in that game with a 37.3% CSW%, although he could not even reach 90 miles per hour with the fastball. He will depend on the curveball tonight, which could be tough for a Rangers offense with lots of left-handed bats in the middle of the order.
The floor is quite low and the ceiling isn't very high for Hill, but you could see him pushing towards ten strikeouts here if things are going well, and that would likely be enough to lead this slate in pitching. He's a bit more attractive on FanDuel given the price discrepancy, but hey you have to pick two of these guys on DraftKings. Price is always less important on a short slate like this one, so if you think Hill still has some strikeouts in the tank, fire him up.
Mid-Tier Pivots
These are potentially underpriced and/or just "safe" options to play if you don't have the money for stud pitchers.
Patrick Corbin ($8,100 FD, $7,800 DK) vs. Diamondbacks
It has not been a pleasant time on the mound for Corbin since 2020 began, and that bad string continued in his first start last week. He gave up six hits and six earned runs in 4.1 innings. The good news was that he did strike out five, which kept him in the positives for DFS purposes.
In that start, he split his arsenal up pretty evenly between a sinker, a slider, and a four-seam. The two fastball variations were not good, but his slider looked sharp like usual. This is really the issue with Corbin, he has a great slider but no secondary pitch to complement it with. He maxed out at 90.4 miles per hour with the fastball in that first start. The Diamondbacks are not a scary offense with Ketel Marte on the shelf, but their 21% collective strikeout rate is the lowest on the slate which lowers expectations for Corbin a bit.
Again, it's a brutal slate for pitching, but I would still probably steer clear of Corbin in cash until we see some improvement (if we ever do).
Sean Manaea ($6,700 FD, $7,400 DK) vs. Tigers
Manaea has had trouble getting strikeouts over the last few years, but he makes that hurt a little less by walking almost nobody. His 47% ground-ball rate also leads him to some success, and he has a nice match-up with the Tigers here. The ceiling is really, really low for Manaea on DFS, but he is probably one of the safer bets to at least return double-digit points here with his ability to throw strikes and keep the ball on the ground.
While the Tigers offense has had some standout performances lately, collectively their numbers still look pretty bad with a .385 slugging percentage and a 24% strikeout rate.
Bargain Bin
These are cheap pitchers with upside, but often big risk as well.
Jakob Junis ($6,000 FD, $6,400 DK) vs. Blue Jays
Junis started his year with two appearances out of the bullpen, but made a start and threw 58 pitches on April 7th. That means he's quite unlikely to push past 80 pitches here, which is definitely a problem. The reason for his presence here is how good he's looked this year. In that last start, he struck out six Indians and allowed just a single hit. His ground-ball rate was 56% and his swinging-strike rate was 12%. His new cutter had a 57% CSW% rate and really kept Cleveland off-balance, setting them up for strikeouts with his really great slider.
Am I going to play a pitcher that I think will be held to 75 pitches in cash against the Blue Jays? Absolutely not. Could Junis go out there, fan seven batters and throw five strong innings and lead the pitching slate in points scored? Surely. He's a fine GPP play on DraftKings.
Tarik Skubal ($7,200 FD, $6,300) vs. Athletics
My favorite tournament play of the night is Skubal, who has struggled a bit with command early on leading him to a less than desirable stat line. For his young career, he has a solid 25% strikeout rate. This is really impressive when you notice that more than 60% of his pitches have been four-seam fastballs. It is tough to get strikeouts when you're relying this much on a fastball. In 2021 he has slowly begun introducing a splitter. He's thrown it just 15 times this year (out of 162 total pitches), and he hasn't been able to locate it well, but it's a good weapon for him when he's ahead in the count and/or trying to get through the batting order a third time.
Skubal probably has the best strikeout stuff on the slate, and he's priced way down. The control issues would normally push him out of cash game consideration, but on such an ugly slate I might find myself going here and hoping for the best.
My basic tip here is that it's not a great night to play a bunch of cash games. With such a low number of games and all the crazy variations we see on the pitching side of the game, randomness is sure to rule tonight. It's a good night to risk less bankroll and take a shot at some tournaments.
Cash Game Rankings
- Julio Urias
- Sean Manaea
- Patrick Corbin
GPP Rankings
- Tarik Skubal
- Rich Hill
- Patrick Corbin
