RADIO
MLB DFS Pitching Primer for 4/20
We will be releasing our premium MLB DFS pitching picks every single day of the week for the entire MLB and fantasy baseball season and postseason, at least a few hours before games begin that day.
After a few days with awesome slates for pitching, we have a dud here on this fine Thursday with just a five-game main slate without much exciting going on on the pitching side. Here are the guys standing out right now relative to the field:
High-Priced Aces
These are your studs who are worth paying up for on this slate. It makes sense to deploy these guys as your cash game plays on FanDuel and as your SP1 on DraftKings based on their high floor/ceiling combination.
Corbin Burnes ($10,500 FD, $10,800) vs. Padres
Ever since Burnes' first start of the year against the Twins I have been handling him as if he is a top-five pitcher in baseball for DFS purposes. Saying top-five is probably a disservice to what he has done this year, he very well may be top two, sliding in right behind Jacob deGrom. He's thrown 18.1 innings this year and has struck out 30 batters while giving up four measly hits and one run (a solo homer). He's eclipsed 30 DraftKings points every single time out.
Burnes has a 19.7% swinging-strike rate overall and has four different pitches that have earned a rate above 15% (changeup, curveball, cutter, and slider). He top sthat off with a 57% ground-ball rate. There is really nobody like him right now.
It will be mighty interesting to see how the field handles him tonight, as this match-up presents his first real challenge of the season against the elite Padres offense that has all their mainstay hitters present. Their projected lineup has a low 18% strikeout rate and a high .398 slugging percentage this year, making them one of the toughest offenses to face. I don't care about that tonight, ace pitching transcends a great offense, and Burnes is firmly an ace in my book. I'm starting him with confidence.
Zac Gallen ($9,600 FD, $8,600 DK) vs. Reds
The young D'Backs righty returned much early than expected from his injury and looked mighty fine in his first outing a week ago, throwing four innings and striking out eight batters while giving up just one run on three hits. His pitch count was 82, which to me signals that he will be restriction-free for this outing.
You aren't getting much of a discount, especially on FanDuel, but if you believe that Gallen is fully recovered and ready for his normal workload, the price probably is a little bit too cheap on DraftKings. Since he entered the Major Leagues, Gallen has a 28.9% strikeout rate and 2.77 ERA. The 3.84 xFIP is strong but not elite, and has to do with his higher than average walk rate (9.8%). Gallen has pinpoint command and a solid mix of pitches that helps him get really deep into games and keep runs off the board.
The Reds match-up is an interesting one. The numbers make them look very strong (a .410 slugging percentage and a 22 PA/HR since 2019 and when you look at just this year those numbers are .438 and 22). However, tonight the Reds will be without Nick Castellanos (suspension) and possibly Mike Moustakas (missed a few games recently due to illness). That takes quite a bit of punch out of that lineup, so I'm feeling pretty good about Gallen on DraftKings.
Mid-Tier Pivots
These are potentially underpriced and/or just "safe" options to play if you don't have the money for stud pitchers.
Charlie Morton ($8,500 FD, $7,600 DK) vs. Yankees
These DFS sites are constantly trying to bait us into pitchers this year, offering surprisingly low price tags on really high-upside arms. One of those guys tonight is Morton, who sits at a season-low $7,600 on DraftKings. His last start was not his best work, giving up seven hits and five earned runs over six innings, but he still struck out nine hitters. Morton was priced low on that slate as well, so those who jumped on the discount weren't handsomely rewarded, but we should absolutely be jumping right back on it.
Morton has a 29% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate with a 47% ground-ball rate since 2019, making him one of the best DFS options over that timespan. The match-up with the Yankees is certainly a risky one with all those power bats in the lineup, but as a collective group this lineup is slugging just .302 this year and homering at a below-average pace (30 PA/HR). I don't really think that will continue for long, but I don't think they'll pick it up tonight against Morton, who has given up just five home runs to right-handed batters since 2019 began (a 249.2 inning sample).
This is a good spot for Morton at a much too low price tag.
Luis Castillo ($8,000 FD, $7,300 DK) vs. Diamondbacks
The price on Castillo came way down prior to his last start, reaching $7,100 on DraftKings. Many DFS players jumped all over that and were disappointed by Castillo giving up four earned runs on seven hits over five innings. He struck out seven and didn't walk anybody in that outing, which is encouraging, but he has not been a good DFS pitcher this year.
The underlying numbers still look fine on Castillo. He has a 29.4% CSW%, a 12.7% swinging-strike rate, and a 43% ground-ball rate for the year. His changeup is still causing all kinds of trouble for hitters with a 22% SwStr% and 71% GB%. His sinker is still reaching 97 on the gun. It just appears like he's been a little bit off on his command and has had some tough luck (a .333 BABIP).
The match-up tonight brings a lower strikeout rate (the snakes are striking out just 20% of the time as a unit), but not much fear of big damage being done (a .363 slugging percentage). It seems wise to go right back to the well here and buy low on Castillo.
Bargain Bin
These are cheap pitchers with upside, but often big risk as well.
Taijuan Walker ($7,700 FD, $7,600 DK) vs. Cubs
Walker is not a bargain bin play n DraftKings as he's priced above Castillo, but he's a bit cheaper than the guys we've talked about so far on FanDuel. He has made just two starts so far this year totaling 10.1 innings, but he's looked good in that time giving up three runs on seven hits and fanning a dozen. He is throwing a sinker that has been consistently hitting 96 miles per hour, as well as a four-seamer that can touch 97. He pairs that with a splitter, a slider, and a curveball which he's been getting whiffs with at high rates.
It's going to be a cold night in Chicago, which I think will benefit him. I'm excited about Walker this year and am looking forward to seeing what he can do now that he's finally staying healthy. I would much prefer Castillo at a similar price, but Walker is a nice tournament pivot to lower ownership.
Brad Keller ($6,700 FD, $5,400 DK) vs. Rays
Sometimes on huge slates like this one, there are just too many elite bats that you can't stomach passing up on, so you have to dip way down for a starter and hope to get lucky. That's the only reason for this recommendation here, as Keller is one of the lower-upside options in the league with his tiny strikeout rate.
He had a brutal start to the year, giving up 10 earned runs in his first 4.2 innings on 15 hits while getting just three strikeouts. He bounced back somewhat nicely against the Angels last time out, throwing 5.2 innings and giving up just one run and fanning five. That was good for 22 DraftKings points, so if he can replicate that again against the Rays here for $5,400 on DraftKings you're doing pretty darn well.
The Rays have a high collective strikeout rate of 26% for the year and aren't hitting homers either with a 31 PA/HR. That makes them one of the more favorable match-ups for starting pitchers, so yeah I have a little bit of Keller interested here. He's not going to get you 30 points and win you a tournament or anything, but the price is too low and he opens up a lot of options on the hitting side of things.
My basic tip here is that it's not a great night to play a bunch of cash games. With such a low number of games and all the crazy variations we see on the pitching side of the game, randomness is sure to rule tonight. It's a good night to risk less bankroll and take a shot at some tournaments.
Cash Game Rankings
- Charlie Morton
- Corbin Burnes
- Luis Castillo
- Zac Gallen
- Brad Keller
GPP Rankings
- Corbin Burnes
- Luis Castillo
- Charlie Morton
- Zac Gallen
- Taijuan Walker
