RADIO
We have four games this weekend and while you can play the full 4-game slate, both sites have also chopped them up into smaller 2-game slates, too. I will be breaking down the two Sunday games here in this article.
DVOA Matchups for All Divisional Games
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Game by Game Breakdowns - Divisional Round Sunday
3:00 PM - L.A. Rams (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5 total)
Previous Meetings: 9/26 - Rams won 34-24
This game should be electric and it's yet another game where I will have some money on the underdogs and will be building a lot of my DFS lineups to favor the underdogs' offense.
Are the Rams for real or was Arizona a pretender? We should find out the answer to that question here as Tampa Bay is going to be a tough matchup at home. I do think too many people are getting caught up in the "it's Tom Brady" factor or just assume the Bucs will round into form at the right time as they did last season. This Bucs team is missing key skill players on an offense that was the top-rated unit in the NFL this season and could be missing some offensive lineman in this game, too.
Let's talk about the Rams first. They looked great last week in a trouncing of the Cards with both Cam Akers and Sony Michel running the ball effectively and Matthew Stafford playing error-free football for the first time in a while. This offense is loaded with weapons and their coaching staff knows how to use them. The addition of Odell Beckham has really strengthened a receiving core that includes record-setting Cooper Kupp, underrated Van Jefferson, and a very effective tight end in Tyler Higbee.
If Stafford plays well again this week, I like the Rams' chances and I think we definitely see them put some points on the board here. We know the Tampa secondary is their weak spot and I would expect L.A. to try to exploit that by targeting Kupp and Higbee in the middle of the field while Jefferson and Beckham work the outsides. Kupp is a no-brainer play here just like he has been all season as Tampa gets murdered by good slot receivers. Higbee is my next favorite option as Tampa has been mediocre against tight ends, too. Beckham is always in play as a pivot off the chalkier Kupp and had an impressive TD catch last week. Jefferson is the one guy I would probably leave alone as his snap share has decreased over the last month.
Between Akers and Michel, I'd rather play Akers as he out-touched Sony last week and showed a burst of speed and athleticism on a 40-yard catch and run. It makes a lot of sense for L.A. to get him in space as Tampa has been pretty solid against the run.
The Tampa side of things is a little murkier and harder to figure out for me. Obviously, this offense is really good and I expect them to score points. But the Rams are a top-5 unit against the run and the pass, so it won't come easily. We saw their pass rush really torment Kyler Murray last week and Tom Brady isn't exactly a mobile QB. What Brady is good at, however, is getting the ball out of his hands quickly and that means we should take a hard look at Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette as both players operate as safety nets for Brady in the passing game.
Mike Evans could end up drawing coverage from Jalen Ramsey, but he's still a strong play here as the clear WR1 for Tampa. I'm hoping Cyril Grayson returns for this game as he was emerging as Godwin's replacement at the end of the season before getting hurt. Breshad Perriman, Tyler Johnson, and Scotty Miller don't move the needle much for me. If you really want a low-owned GPP play then perhaps consider Cameron Brate, who has maintained a significant role in this offense despite playing a lot fewer snaps than Gronk.
CORE PLAYS: Leonard Fournette, Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford
OTHER PLAYS: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Odell Beckham Jr., Cam Akers
6:30 PM - Buffalo Bills (+1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (54.5 total)
Previous Meetings: 10/10 - Bills won 38-20
What a finale to an incredible weekend! We have the rematch of last year's AFC championship a week earlier this season and unfortunately, one of these teams won't make it to championship week despite the consensus that these are likely the two best teams in the AFC.
The Bills are getting a lot of love from bettors so far this week and it's pretty easy to see why as they dismantled the Pats last week and looked impressive in the process. While they had a few stretches during the regular season where they struggled, it seems like Buffalo is starting to fire on all cylinders and play their best football of the year down the stretch.
KC also comes into this one in good form as they crushed my Steelers last week. After a scoreless first quarter, they suddenly woke up and then were unstoppable the rest of the game. Vegas expects plenty of offense in this one and I would expect this is the more highly-targeted game by DFS players, too.
For Buffalo, it's all about Josh Allen and his dual-threat ability. He has a massive ceiling due to that rushing ability and he ran all over the Chiefs in this first meeting, too. He is pricy, but no other QB has that type of ceiling on the entire 4-game slate. We can look to pair him with Stefon Diggs, which is probably the chalkiest combo, but Diggs is the safest option of the Bills receivers. I'm still interested in Gabriel Davis as he's solidified his role as a red zone target and moved ahead of Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley as their #2 receiver.
Dawson Knox had two TD catches last week and should be strongly considered, too. We haven't even talked about Devin Singletary yet! The Bills' back might be one of my favorite plays in this game as he's been heavily involved in the Buffalo offense the last five weeks and he has a very solid matchup here against the KC run defense.
No sane person would ever count out Patrick Mahomes, but he is facing one of the better pass defenses in the league. Sometimes we see great players play up to their competition and Mahomes certainly has the ability to better Allen in this game and toss 4-5 TDs of his own.
I prefer Travis Kelce to Tyreek Hill this week, but both guys warrant consideration. As usual, I wouldn't play them together as they cost too much and they rarely go off in the same game. Byron Pringle is making noise as the third option for Mahomes in the passing game and provides some nice salary relief. I wouldn't mess with these KC backs as CEH is back this week and it's likely Jerick McKinnon turns back into a pumpkin.
CORE PLAYS: Devin Singletary, Josh Allen, Byron Pringle
OTHER PLAYS: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Dawson Knox, Gabriel Davis
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Divisional Round Sunday
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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