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Can you believe we're already heading into the fourth race of the NASCAR Xfinity season?
Noah Gragson currently leads the points standings. While he hasn't won yet, he has three top fives in three races, with an average finish of 2.3. Ty Gibbs is second in points and is coming off of a victory last week.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the United Rentals 200 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station.
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Post-Qualifying Twitter Update Thread
Check back here before Saturday's race, where I'll be linking to a Twitter thread of some post-qualifying thoughts.
Update: thread is below.
Xfinity DFS Preview for DraftKings
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How The Top-Priced Drivers Have Done At Phoenix
There are six drivers who cost $10,000 or more on DraftKings, so let's break down how those drivers have run at Phoenix.
Justin Allgaier ($11,500): In 23 Xfinity starts here, Allgaier has two wins, eight top fives and 15 top 10s. He was eighth and ninth last year here and led 32 laps in the spring race. Great track record, but also he wasn't quite as quick here last year as you'd like. Has the ability to dominate this race, but I don't think it's as likely as his salary suggests.
Noah Gragson ($11,200): As mentioned in the intro, Gragson has an average finish of 2.3 this year. He didn't have great results at Phoenix last year, with a 39th (engine failure) and a 12th, but he did finish second here in 2020 and led 27 laps in the other 2020 visit to the track. Solid play if he doesn't qualify too high, but like Allgaier, he feels a little overpriced.
Ty Gibbs ($10,900): Gibbs won last week, but only led six laps and didn't really feel like he was having a great day. He finished outside the top 10 at Daytona and Fontana. But he also finished second in his lone Xfinity start here, so...I don't know! Definitely isn't driving as consistently as you'd like, but there's always upside, especially if he qualifies near the bottom of the top 10.
A.J. Allmendinger ($10,400): Allmendinger is having a solid season, but I worry he has too much qualifying speed after getting the pole two weeks in a row and then finishing seventh and ninth. He finished fifth and 14th here last year. If he qualifies close to what he's been, there will be a lot of downside, though he could also blow the doors off everyone.
Josh Berry ($10,200): Berry sits fifth in points and has two top fives, finishing fourth the last two weeks. His only race here saw him crash out and finish 36th, though his average running position was 16th. Of the high-priced drivers, Berry is the biggest mystery because of his lack of experience here, but this is also a track that feels like it would suit him well.
Daniel Hemric ($10,000): The defending series champion won his first career race the last time the series was here, leading 48 laps. While he only finished 23rd in the other race here, he led 44 laps in that one. He isn't in Joe Gibbs equipment this year, but that doesn't mean Hemric won't go out and have a strong race. He's maybe my favorite play of the high-priced guys, though qualifying obviously could change that.
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Mid-Price NASCAR DFS Options
Looking at some guys between $7,000 and $10,000, we see some intriguing options.
The price on Riley Herbst ($8,000) could make him the biggest steal of this race. He finished fourth in both races here last year, including driving up from 30th in the spring race. His average start this season is 9.7. If he starts somewhere around there instead of upfront like he did last week, then Herbst will be a slam dunk play.
Brandon Brown ($7,200) finished third here in the spring race last year. His average starting spot this year is 20.3. Could be a ton of place differential upside for the 68 car.
Sheldon Creed ($8,400) took a BJ McLeod car to a top 10 here last year. He also has a Truck Series win at this track and then last season led 106 laps here in Trucks before finishing fourth. Lots of upside for Creed.
Potential NASCAR DFS Sleeper Picks
Let's look at potential options under $7,000.
For these picks, I want to focus more on 2022 performance than on historical track performance, since so much changes year to year for the value guys.
Kyle Sieg ($6,700) has been a nice surprise this year. Started 36th at Daytona and finished 21st. Started 38th at Fontana and finished 18th. Started 24th at Vegas and finished 16th. Not the Sieg family member I expected to see running this well, but he's definitely now on my fantasy radar.
Ryan Ellis ($6,300) is an obvious pick. He finished 13th last week in this 44 car. Alpha Prime Racing has shown some solid speed and is one of the better mid-pack teams, with Tommy Joe Martins posting some solid runs in this car last year.
Ryan Vargas ($5,400) could be a solid punt play. He's finished below 30th the last two weeks, but that was because he crashed out. He ran in the top 30 on average in both of those races.
Jade Buford ($5,300) is averaging -6.2 points per race, which is really bad. But Buford had an average finish of 23.8 last year and if he qualifies deep enough in the field, I'll take a chance on him.
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