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We had previously looked at the impact coaching changes around the NFL might have on fantasy football, here and here. Now that the 2014 NFL draft has concluded, let's take a look at some of the NFL rookie sleepers for 2014 fantasy football who are in the best situations to succeed this year.
2014 Fantasy Football Impact Rookies
Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills
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Watkins is a near consensus to be the top rookie wide receiver drafted in fantasy leagues, and for good reason. He is a prospect along the lines of a Julio Jones, who had a strong rookie year himself (besides his hamstring injury).
The issue with Watkins is that he goes to a run-first team with a below average quarterback and no other major receiving weapons to draw coverage away from him. Still, sophomore quarterback EJ Manuel will have few other options to throw to, and he should be willing to take some shots downfield to Watkins almost every game. Watkins has mid-level WR3 appeal in any format, although the value probably won’t be there just yet.
Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee Titans
I was going to list Sankey here before Shonn Greene got hurt once again, but now I consider him a lock to be the top rookie running back this year. Bishop Sankey is an impressive runner who shows a lot of patience behind his offensive line, who is a similar prospect to Gio Bernard. While he doesn’t possess the physical tools of an Adrian Peterson or a LeSean McCoy, he helps make up for it with a quick one-cut burst and the ability to do everything desired in a running back, including breaking tackles, making plays in open space, accelerating quickly and making defenders miss.
While Sankey is a well-rounded player, he is not superb in any one category, which could prove problematic when adjusting to the pro game. He can also catches passes out of the backfield and pass-protect, making him a virtual lock for third-down duties. Shonn Greene is the only person stopping Sankey from being a full-time starter, so we could see him touching the ball 20+ times a game by the fantasy playoffs. He has RB2 appeal in the fifth or sixth round, but he comes with a substantial amount of risk. It would be advisable to draft another running back as insurance.
NFL Rookie Sleepers To Target Late in Fantasy Drafts
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers
I’m not the biggest fan of Kelvin Benjamin, but he was drafted in the perfect situation. He should have no problem beating out the likes of Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant and Tiquan Underwood, and he will almost certainly be the top option in the red zone outside of Cam Newton’s legs. He also is excellent on the deep ball due to his size and speed. If Benjamin can fix his drop issues, he could become a decent starter in fantasy by year's end.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints
Cooks is another player who was drafted into the perfect situation. Drew Brees can make anyone look good, and Cooks is already good. I question how New Orleans will use him, as they tend to slowly integrate rookies into their offense (see Kenny Stills, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Graham, Robert Meachem). Cooks's role differs from the rest of these players though, and the subtraction of Darren Sproles will creates an opening in the Saints passing attack. I expect Pierre Thomas to fill most of that hole with impressive Khiry Robinson taking over the ground and pound duties, but Cooks could still get his. Think a better Tavon Austin. I love Cooks as a late-round flyer, and if the Saints give him an opportunity, he will almost certainly thrive. Keep checking reports in the preseason.
Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Matthews is yet another player in a good situation (see the theme here?). At 6'3", he instantly becomes a good target for Foles in the red zone and all over the field. Matthews is coming into the league as one of the most polished receiver in the draft. He has decent speed, good hands and great route-running ability. Chip Kelly has already said that they will be using Matthews in the slot, a position previously occupied by Jason Avant. While all of this is fantastic news for the rookie's fantasy value, there is a downside. He will probably be fourth on the team in targets, behind the likes of Jeremy Maclin, Zach Ertz and Darren Sproles. Also, don’t forget about LeSean McCoy, Riley Cooper and fellow rookie Josh Huff. Matthews should still carve out a role in the Eagles offense, and given the way Chip runs his offense, we can see Matthews having a few big games this year. He is a decent late-round flyer.
Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lee fell in the draft because of leg issues, but landed in yet another good situation. With Justin Blackmon suspended for the entire season, Lee will be the #2 option in the passing game behind Cecil Shorts. Outside of the leg injury, Lee possessed mid-to-high first-round talent. He is incredibly explosive, finds ways to get open and is almost impossible to tackle once he gets the ball in his hands due to his speed and elusiveness after the catch. The main issues with Lee will be health, handling press coverage, the Jaguars ground-and-pound scheme and the quarterback situation. The Jaguars should be playing from behind a lot, so if Lee looks good in the preseason, he would make a good late-round flyer.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Freeman's college stats aren't too eye-opening at first glance, splitting time with James Wilder and running quarterback EJ Manuel, but the game tape showed what Freeman can really do. He's a good inside runner (for his average stature) who possesses great outside moves and quick burst that experts have compared to the exciting Shane Vereen. Freeman fell into a perfect situation as Steven Jackson's backup. He should easily supplant the undersized Jacquizz Rodgers on third-down duty, and he should see the majority of reps when Jackson takes a breather. The Falcons may also choose to throw to their running backs more than usual without Tony Gonzalez. I wouldn't draft Freeman as a starting running back for your team, but he is one of the best handcuffs to own and he could provide some decent fantasy value even if Jackson does start the whole season. He's great late round value.
Other Notable 2014 NFL Rookies
Paul Richardson, WR, Seattle Seahawks - Seahawks love playing rookies, speedster who should have a role on offense.
John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals - Incredibly explosive rookie (4.34 40) who could compete with Tedd Ginn for slot duties by years end.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals - Could take over short yardage duties if BJGE is cut, would make a good red-zone vulture.
Jace Amaro, TE, New York Jets - Outside of Eric Decker, he is probably the best target Geno Smith or Michael Vick has, incredibly athletic and a great receiving threat.
2014 Fantasy Football Notable Rookies: IDP
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, Texans - Does he even need to be mentioned?
Khalil Mack, DE, Raiders - Once again, does he even need to be mentioned? Should have no issue finding a role even with the now stacked Raiders line.
CJ Mosley, LB, Ravens - Tackle machine
Ryan Shazier, LB, Steelers - Tackle machine, incredibly athletic
Calvin Pryor, S, Jets - Huge believer in Pryor’s potential, and could make an immediate impact on a young, improving defense.
Haha Clinton-Dix, S, Packers - His major weakness is his inability to punish ball carriers, and is a plus at everything else. Should make a major impact in Packers secondary and grab a few picks.
Kyle Van Noy, LB, Lions - I like Van Noy as an all-around prospect who should be ready to make an impact day one. All-around stat contributor.
Stay tuned for a look at which NFL rookies to avoid in fantasy football drafts, and NFL rookies to target in dynasty leagues!
