RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target in Late Rounds as Low End 2B1
ANALYSIS: Many experts preach targeting high-upside players, so it’s become the norm to take a chance on a younger guy rather than a wily veteran. So there’s value in drafting a guy like Chase Utley, who has a lower ceiling but a higher floor than most second basemen. Over the first 91 games of 2014, Utley posted a .293 BA and a .345 wOBA, but those numbers fell to .235 and .294, respectively, for his final 64 games. Prior to last year, Utley hadn’t played more than 132 games since 2009, and at 36, no one will argue he’s the perennial MVP candidate he once was, but his second half numbers may not be indicative of the player he is now. His second half LD% was 23.3%, just slightly down from 25.5% in the first half, yet his BABIP imploded from .317 to .261. So, maybe Utley was a bit unlucky in the second half last year. Overall, he reduced his K rate, increased his contact percentage and made harder contact. His power has slowly faded (he smacked just 11 HR last year) and injuries remain a concern, but there’s a lot more certainty with Utley than with guys like Arismendy Alcantara, Javier Baez or Kolten Wong. If you find yourself waiting late for a second basemen, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on Utley.
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