BALLER MOVE: Target ~230 Overall
ANALYSIS: Henderson Alvarez compiled a 12-7 record along with a 2.65 ERA in 30 starts last season, yet he is consistently available after the 20th round in most 12-team leagues for 2015. The Marlins have enough belief in Alvarez’s talent to make him their opening day starter while Jose Fernandez is recuperating from Tommy John surgery.
Fantasy owners tend to shy away from Alvarez because of his lack of strikeouts (5.34 K/9 rate last season), but he's a control pitcher who doesn’t issue many walks. His hard, sinking two-seam fastball has always helped him throw a high percentage of out-producing ground balls. Alvarez’s ERA has been trending downward in each of the last three seasons, and although it might regress a bit in 2015, you can still expect it to hover in the high-two or low-three range. Based on where you should be able to pick him up in your draft, consider Alvarez a solid addition to your fantasy staff.
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