Josh Tomlin (SP, CLE) - 2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target Late in Very Deep Leagues

ANALYSIS:  Through 447.2 IP, Josh Tomlin owns a career 4.89 ERA and a 4.44 FIP, as well as a strikeout rate of 15.1%. Underneath the hood, however, Tomlin’s game has been evolving. His career walk rate is an incredibly impressive 4.2%. To put that in context, Greg Maddux had a career walk rate of 4.9%. While he had never posted a strikeout rate above 15% in any season prior, in 2014, Tomlin struck out 21.1% of the batters he faced.

He allowed too many home runs and had some terrible fortune on balls in play, causing him to limp out of the season with a 4.76 ERA (4.01 FIP). But Sabermetrics suggest that pitchers have little control over BABIP and HR/9, and one should focus more on walks and strikeouts. Were he able to maintain the gains he made in 2014, xFIP suggests that Tomlin is much more like a 3.16 ERA pitcher than the 4.76 ERA one we saw last year.

Considering the remarkable depth the Indians have, unless injuries take their toll, Tomlin is likely to start the season from the outside looking in. Still, given the improvements he made in 2014, Tomlin is a classic late-draft, upside pick in deeper formats. As of now, I can’t advocate drafting him outside of very deep mixed leagues or AL-only formats. His is a name I’d keep my eye on, however.