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Christian Yelich: Deceptively Good
Christian Yelich is an intriguing player. He's a former first round pick and top prospect. He's posted high BABIPs and walk rates at every level, including the majors. He's got good instincts and ability in the field and on the base paths. At 6'3", 200, he's got the kind of build scouts drool over. Oh, and he just turned 23 last month.
So why isn't he being touted as a fantasy monster? Simply put, he hasn't hit for power. In his first two seasons with the Marlins, Yelich has hit just 13 homers. Only 14 players have left the yard less often in that span (min. 900 PA). That group is composed almost entirely of speedy slap-hitters like Ben Revere and Nori Aoki. Not coincidentally, those two joined Yelich, Derek Jeter, and Howie Kendrick as the only qualified hitters who posted a groundball rate of at least 60%. Obviously when you're burning that many worms, it's going to be tough to clear the fence on a regular basis. But you shouldn't take that to mean that Yelich doesn't have the ability to hit for power. A closer look at his peripherals, both in the minors and the majors, says otherwise.
Yelich's batted ball distance of 289.1 feet ranked 67th among qualified hitters last season, above notable sluggers like Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion. Part of the reason for that is that he popped up only once all year, but his 11.5 HR/FB% was also well above the league average. Additionally, Yelich posted some solid isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) marks in the minors. So if he can hit a few more flies, the homers will be there.
All that probably contributes to Steamer projecting him for a 14 HR/20 SB season in 2015. Only 11 players reached both of those benchmarks last year. Yelich is also a good bet to eclipse 100 runs hitting at the top of the Marlins' order. Combine that with a batting average in the mid-to-high .280s and you've got a top-20 outfielder.
"But wait!" you might exclaim, if you are the sort of person who yells at his computer while reading fantasy articles. "Won't hitting more flyballs at the expense of grounders have a negative impact on his batting average?" Perhaps, but you know what would mitigate that? A drop in strikeout rate, which is also reasonable to expect. Yelich's swinging strike rate was only 6.8%, a significant improvement from the 9.6% he posted as a rookie. Guys who put up a mark that low don't usually carry a K% over 20, as Yelich did.
In Summary
While his batted ball profile has been a little wonky, Yelich has demonstrated the ability to contribute across the board at an age where many players are still climbing the minor-league ladder. If he can continue to improve his whiff rate and drive the ball with a little more authority, he'll be well on his way to fantasy stardom.
