RADIO
Tons of Upside for this Breakout Candidate
You are not excited enough about George Springer.
Yeah, I know: He strikes out a lot. His 33.0 K% last season would have tied Chris Davis for the MLB lead if he’d had enough AB to qualify, and prospect graveyards are littered with the bones of guys who carried high whiff rates from the minors to the majors (Whither goest thou, Brandon Wood?). His .231 batting average was a drag. He stole only five bases, after racking up 86 in his first two minor league seasons.
But let’s remember that we’re also talking about a guy who, at age 24, swatted 20 homers in just 78 games. After a brief adjustment period in April, Springer put up a .242/.352/.525 triple slash line. His low SB total was a result of a lingering quadricep injury which cost him half the season. And while he's penciled in as the Astros' right fielder, he patrolled center for most of his minor league career and started seven games there in Houston last season, giving him CF eligibility in leagues with a less rigorous qualifying threshold.
Even with his early struggles and injuries sapping both his speed and his playing time, Springer provided enough value on the season to justify the late flyer many owners took on him last year. As you may have heard, power has become a much rarer commodity in recent years. We don't have a dozen shortstops hitting 30 homers in today's lower-scoring environment. Hell, I think at this point we'd all settle for a dozen shortstops who could hit, period. So when a guy with a first-round pedigree like Springer comes in and immediately showcases 40 HR upside, that's valuable enough on its own. If Springer can add some steals to the mix, suddenly he's in the conversation for a top-10 outfield ranking - and assuming health, there's no reason that can't happen.
Steamer projects a .238/.328/.444 line for Springer in 2015, with 28 HR and 17 SB. That seems rather conservative, at least on the rate stats front. He'll need to rein-in his aggressive approach a bit, but the double-digit walk rates at every level indicate that he's got a good sense of the zone and isn't just a free swinger. Springer also posted a .379 BABIP in the minors. He's not likely to sniff that with such a high strikeout rate, but improving on his .294 mark from 2014 is certainly possible with his speed. Even with the quad injury, Springer managed a 16.9% infield hit rate, highest in the majors among batters with at least 200 PA. Bottom line: The kid can run.
In Summary
Last season, Springer rewarded owners who took a chance and stuck with him through his early struggles with a 10-week stretch rivaling some of the best in the game. With a clean bill of health and a full season at the major league level, he's a strong breakout candidate for 2015. The potential is there for an incredible amount of value. In the last three seasons, only Mike Trout and Ryan Braun have reached the 30/30 mark. Springer is poised to join them - and maybe carve out a spot for himself in the ranks of the elite fantasy outfielders.
