Justin Verlander: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Bust

Time for an Oil Change?

Over the last 15 years, baseball managers have kept a closer eye than ever on pitch counts. It makes sense, of course. We’re so trained on the importance of avoiding pitcher injuries that there’s a gasp every time someone exceeds 110 pitches. Spectators sit on the edge of their seats praying the guy’s arm won’t magically fall off.

An injury or arm fatigue from pitch counts isn’t likely to happen with the snap of a finger. It’s something that will insinuate itself slowly over time, like driving your car an extra 500 miles after an oil change is due for 10 consecutive years. It looks like that’s what we’re seeing with Justin Verlander.

Verlander’s 2014 was a borderline disaster by his and the Detroit Tigers’ standards. Even casual fans heard about Verlander’s continued loss of velocity. Some pitchers can adapt to a lower velocity, but Verlander struggled. Some might find this information obvious, but let it serve as a reminder not to buy into name value on draft day. Take a look at the table below:

Verlander’s velocity has fallen 2.5 MPH since 2009, which is a surprise to approximately no one. Since that time, he relied less and less on the fastball, likely because it became less and less effective. He started throwing his slider significantly more in recent years, but his wSL (a measure of a pitch's value) is barely above average. It's not replacing the effectiveness of his fastball from a few years ago. The result is fewer strikeouts; his once elite 10.1 K/9 fell to a pedestrian 6.9 in 2014, just a few spots ahead of Bartolo Colon.

As a fantasy owner, the data is scary. He’s trying to adapt his game, and it’s just not working. If we saw he was stubbornly throwing his fastball as frequently as before, we could pretend he might develop his secondary pitches. Without consulting A-Rod’s doctors, I just don't see him recovering his lost velocity.

The Detroit Free Press reported that Verlander put on 20 pounds of muscle this offseason (is he in the Best Shape of his Life?!) and was able to begin throwing earlier this offseason since he was coming off an abdominal tear surgery last year. I just don’t see that amounting to much. Once the zip on your fastball goes, it’s rare to see it ever return (or if you’re like me, you never had it in the first place).

In Summary

After years as fantasy ace, Verlander finds himself in the same group as Nick Markakis – valuable on-field producers, but useless for fantasy owners. I think Verlander will remain an innings eating freak, but with a K/9 near seven, there’s absolutely no value. It pains me to say this because Verlander has led me to multiple fantasy titles: if you end up with him on your team, make a trade ASAP.