RADIO
Once an Ace, Now a Sleeper
Before I even start writing this article, I need all of you readers out there who drafted Justin Verlander as your number two or even number one starting pitcher in 2013-2014 to leave your grudges at the door. Same goes for those of you who traded for Verlander at the All-Star break "Just-In" time to watch him pitch equally as bad if not worse the rest of the year. I know nothing I say will make up for the heartbreak you endured watching this man "pitch" last year, but I can (almost) promise that he will do far better this year. That being said, if you won't be the one to draft him in the middle rounds of a 2015 fantasy baseball draft, I've convinced myself that I'm more than willing to take the chance.
The once Detroit Tigers ace-turned-bum finished last year with a gruesome 4.54 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 6.95 K/9 rate. All three of those stats were either worst or second-worst in Verlander's nine year career (excluding 2005 in which he pitched 2 games). He also averaged his lowest fastball velocity ever - 93.1 mph. Even though he still somehow managed to eclipse 200 IP and racked up 15 wins, it might have been his worst season.
So why do I think he's draftable? Simple, I think he pitched hurt.
This time last winter, Justin Verlander was still recovering from a brutal abdominal surgery that was supposed to fix the velocity decrease we saw in 2013. Most fantasy analysts were urging owners everywhere to buy into Verlander as a number two or (if you were lucky) number three starting pitcher. After all, the guy had been dominant every year leading up to his injury.
The thought was that the 30-year old pitcher would regain his old form and pull off another sub-three ERA with 20 wins.Needless to say, they were wrong. There have not been any medical procedures this winter that we can call Verlander's saving grace. However, there is a lot optimism coming from Detroit.
Detroit Free Press and CBS Sports reported in January that Verlander knew he was going to face a tough task in 2014. Apparently, he had talked to teammate Ian Kinsler and former teammate Torii Hunter (both who have had the same procedure), and they had hinted it took them about a year to regain their full ability. Another article a few days later reported that not only is Verlander feeling "the best he's felt physically" in three years, but he has an optimistic General Manager on his side too. Dave Dombroski said that he expects "big things" from JV this season. To top it all off, Verlander said that he has added 20 pounds of muscle to his frame this offseason. Good for you, Kate Upton.
In Summary
Fantasy baseball sites have ranked the Tigers pitcher inconsistently among starting pitchers. CBS has him at 78. ESPN has him at 68. Yahoo has him as high as 48. Our RotoBaller staff has him averaged at 71.1 for starting pitchers. I expect to see a lot of shift in Verlander's ranking (most likely up) before a lot of drafts take place in mid-March.
The safest approach to have here is to keep Verlander in the back of your mind come draft day. If someone wants him as their number 2 pitcher, let them have him. However, if he starts to fall and you find yourself looking at guys like Jered Weaver, Michael Pineda, and Jason Hammel, it might be time to consider Verlander. I will.
