RADIO
Heading into the season, Fantasy Football Expert Frankie Soler will take an early look into each NFL team’s fantasy potential in 2015, keying into some depth chart changes and battles for starting jobs. In our third part of the series we look at the Dallas Cowboys. All previous Team Previews can be found here.
Piling on to the dumpster fire that is the New York Jets has essentially become an American pastime. This is a franchise that was on the cusp of becoming a super bowl contender in the NFL just five years ago before ultimately faltering on the offensive side of the ball. While the offensive potency of the team hasn’t increased since, there’s been massive changes in terms of personnel.
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Brandon Marshall, WR Devin Smith, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB Bryce Petty, RB Zac Stacy, RB Stevan Ridley
No Longer on the Roster: WR Percy Harvin, QB Michael Vick
Coaching Changes: HC Todd Bowles, OC Chan Gailey, DC Kacy Rodgers
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Quarterbacks
Entering his third season with the NFL, you would think Geno Smith would have fully sunk or swam by now. Instead, his status as an NFL starter is still very much in limbo. Geno enters the 2015 season as the presumed incumbent starter despite the addition of longtime veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick and recent draftee Bryce Petty. Every indication since the signing of Fitzpatrick and the beginning of camp suggests Geno Smith will be given one last opportunity to prove he has what it takes to be a starter in the NFL. Should he struggle again, the team will certainly trot out the veteran Fitzpatrick to keep the team afloat.
If you were to compare Smith’s 2014 stats to that of Fitzpatrick’s while he was in Houston, you’d quickly realize that Fitzpatrick is the more efficient passer, the most telling numbers being completion percentage and interceptions. Geno Smith completed 57.5% of his passes with 13 interceptions compared to 63.1% and eight interceptions for Fitzpatrick. Granted, Fitzpatrick has been in the league for nine seasons now so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he makes less mistakes than a guy who’s only been around for two years but that’s kind of the point here. Geno Smith will be on a very short leash to show signs of improvement especially when you know what you’re getting out of Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is no superstar by any means but he’s less likely to have a negative impact on the offense. Either way, this is a situation to completely avoid in fantasy and hope that whoever the starter is by mid-season is good enough to get the ball to the recently acquired Brandon Marshall.
Wide Receivers
With the Percy Harvin experiment being a rather whimpering failure in New York, the Jets decided to trade for a more seasoned wide receiver in Brandon Marshall. Marshall gives the Jets some much needed experience at the position and is easily the best wide receiver they’ve had in years. The only knock on Brandon Marshall is that he’s coming off of a season where he was rattled with injuries at age 31. That actually sounds a lot more serious than it really is.
Marshall is still an immensely talented player whose 2014 production was muted by a variety of factors independent of his playing ability. In conjunction with the injuries, Marshall was also dealing with the continued emergence of Alshon Jeffery as Chicago’s new number one receiver. This shouldn’t be a problem for him playing alongside Eric Decker as Marshall is still the more talented player. You can pretty much throw out his 2014 stats and just consider the fact that it he was banged up for most of the year, resulting in his lowest yardage total since his rookie season. Marshall is kind of a forgotten WR3/flex play this year with WR2 upside should the Jets improve their quarterback play.
Eric Decker had a respectable 962-yard season on 74 receptions. Although his 115 targets will be hard to match with the presence of Brandon Marshall, Decker has shown that he was more than just a product of a Peyton Manning offense. Decker is a talented receiver who can produce in an efficient offense. The problem is, between Marshall being the presumed number one receiver and a quarterback situation that can be described as questionable at best, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Decker becomes anything more than a bench stash.
The addition of Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey implies the Jets will utilize a more spread offense, which should benefit both Marshall and Decker alike. There will be a lot more targets to go around as it’s expected the team will attempt more passes than the 498 they threw in 2014. That number ranked 27th in the league so there isn’t much room for it to get worse. Every aspect of the Jets’ wide receiver production is linked to the play of Geno Smith or whoever ends up as the starter so proceed with caution.
Running Backs
If you thought this team’s quarterback scenario was messy, take a gander at the running back depth chart. As of writing, the New York Jets are currently rostering five running backs. That may not sound all that uncommon but when you consider the names they’ve acquired it becomes much more confusing. The list includes Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, Daryl Richardson, Stevan Ridley, and Zac Stacy. All five of those players have been relevant either in real-life NFL football or in fantasy at one point or another. The expectation is that Chris Ivory will remain the starter despite the team adding two running backs without getting rid of who they already had. Ivory has been good enough in his two years with the Jets but between the clutter and the unknowns surrounding the offense it’s no surprise he’s ranked as a borderline RB3. I would expect Ivory to lead the team in carries with Powell handling pass-catching duties at number two on the depth chart.
I would then anticipate at least one player out of Richardson, Ridley, and Stacy not making the team at all. The tough part about analyzing those three is that they each have their own warts. Richardson is the least talented of the three, Ridley still has health concerns stemming from ACL surgery, and Zac Stacy could be viewed as nothing more than a flash in the pan if it weren’t for the fact that the Jets actually traded away a draft pick to get him. Much like this squad’s quarterback situation, I’m probably going to avoid all Jets running backs barring some more clarity come August. If anything, Ivory could be a solid mid-season waiver wire add once it becomes clear what each of the other players’ roles are.
Rookies and Tight Ends
If you’re wondering why rookie Bryce Petty was nothing more than a name in the quarterback section it’s because he’s currently the third stringer. The last thing the New York Jets need right now is to feed another rookie QB to the wolves before he’s ready. Petty would be best served acclimating to the NFL slowly even if Geno Smith struggles early. I don’t anticipate Petty seeing the field at all in 2015 barring any unforeseen injuries to Smith and Fitzpatrick.
Jace Amaro and Jeff Cumberland shared the workload at the tight end position in 2014. With both players still on the roster, I wouldn’t expect much to change going forward. This isn’t a situation that should be on your radar until it becomes clear that this offense can not only utilize the tight end but that they are also willing to fully commit to one guy.
So basically what you have here is a New York Jets team that is looking to give Geno Smith one last shot at being productive while providing him with the best offensive weapon he’s ever had in Brandon Marshall. Marshall is a significant offensive upgrade and is definitely overlooked as a fantasy prospect. He’s by no means the same guy he was three or four years ago but he’s by far the most fantasy relevant player on this team.
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