Steve Smith (WR, BAL) - 2015 Fantasy Football Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target in the mid to late rounds as a WR3, with the potential to be Top-20 again.

CURRENT ADP: 94 STD, 78 PPR

ANALYSIS: After a top-20 season in 2014, Steve Smith is the clear No. 1 receiver in Baltimore and is poised for a repeat.

One of the biggest mistakes fantasy football owners make is falling in love with potential and upside instead of banking on reliability. It's much more fun to dream about what the young, unknown commodity could be rather than going with what you know. It's for this reason that Steve Smith was gifted to owners as a late round steal last season and why it will likely happen again this year.

In 2014, all Smith did was catch 79 passes for 1,065 YDs and six TDs as a No. 2 receiver. With Torrey Smith shipped off to San Francisco and a Baltimore Ravens offense devoid of any real offensive threats outside of Justin Forsett, Smith is the clear No. 1 passing weapon for quarterback Joe Flacco. There's no reason to believe that a 14-year veteran can't at least replicate last season's results, if not improve upon them.

Smith clearly slowed down toward the end of last season, notching just two TDs and 492 yards from Week 7 through the end of the season. Still, he managed to maintain decent production on a game-to-game basis, especially in PPR leagues.

In an offense that throws the ball with the type of frequency that Baltimore does (Flacco 13th in passes attempted in 2014), Smith is bound to have a solid season as a reliable flex/WR3. He is currently being drafted well after players like Eric Decker, Amari Cooper, and Kendall Wright. Grab Smith in the eighth or ninth rounds to get fourth or fifth round production.