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After a disappointing 2014 season, Pierre Garcon's draft day value will likely take a substantial hit. This could be good news for savvy fantasy owners who will likely be able to nab him in the later rounds and get a wide receiver with some upside for cheap.
Let's be realistic, he won't duplicate his breakout 2013 campaign. In 2013 Garcon caught 113 passes and recorded 1346 receiving yards, with five touchdowns. Those 113 receptions were actually tops in the NFL. He was PPR gold that year. Last year though, he only caught 68 passes, with 752 receiving yards and scored three touchdowns. That's just over half of the passes and receiving yards he recorded the year before.
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So which Garcon will we see this year? Based on his track record, his production should fall somewhere in between. For one thing, Jay Gruden has already said he is determined to get Garcon more involved according to the Washington Post. The QB situation should be more stable this year, and if Robert Griffin III is able to resemble anything close to a capable passer then Garcon could be in business.
Back with the Colts in 2011, Garcon caught 70 passes for 947 yards and six touchdowns so it's not like his breakout season came completely out of nowhere. He's only 28, and can still be a deep threat too with his 4.42 speed.. If he can get in the 75-80 reception range and around 900 yards receiving he will give owners solid bang for their buck.
Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay appeared on 106.7 The Fan’s Grant and Danny, and had the following to say about how the team plans to utilize Garcon in 2015.
“Well, one of the things we did this offseason, when you really go back and evaluate it, is we were able to switch DeSean to the X position and Pierre to our Z. When you talk about the skill set you’re looking for from a Z, a physical receiver that’s a good a blocker in the run game, he can slant routes, some of those intermediate and short routes, and he also has to be physical to run some of those intermediate deep in-breaks. That’s where Pierre’s greatest strengths are.”
In layman's terms, the "Z-receiver" plays off the line of scrimmage, which makes the tight end an eligible receiver. Because of this, it's the Z who often goes in motion before the snap and can gain an advantage by having added separation from his defender right off the bat. The X receiver on the other hand lines up out wide on the line of scrimmage.
The hope here is that Garcon can exploit defenses from this position, and also that it will be playing to his strength as a run-blocker. This also means that Garcon will be on the field a lot, even when the Redskins are focused more on running the ball. It's still extremely early, but McVay says Garcon has looked strong in OTAs, and that he looks poised to be much more heavily targeted in the passing game than last season.
Part of the problem last year was also the acquisition of DeSean Jackson. Between adding a new primary receiver whom the coaches saw as interchangeable with Garcon's skillset, and the aforementioned QB carousel between RGIII, Cousins, and McCoy, it's easy to see how Garcon did not perform as well in 2014.
As evidenced by teams like the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears though, once the QB and receivers get some chemistry going, there can be plenty of passes to go around for everyone. The Packers have the tandem of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and the Bears had Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall (now with the Jets). Obviously the Redskins have bigger question marks at signal caller than these two teams, but in theory things could be looking up now that the players have had more time to gel together. At the cheap price your paying for Pierre Garcon (10th round ADP at time of writing), what's there to lose?
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