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Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill had a fantastic rookie season. As a result, he is being drafted in the mid-2nd to early-3rd range in early mock drafts. That seems like a pretty fair ADP for a guy with just 16 games of experience and even fewer as a starter. He’s already being drafted ahead of some really good players with long track records of success. Could he be a bargain even if his ADP continues to rise? I think so.
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The main concern with Jeremy Hill is probably Giovani Bernard. There are a couple of factors for why Bernard concerns people when drafting Hill. For starters, didn’t we see Gio hyped up as a 2nd year RB only to be a let down in a big way? Who’s to say Jeremy Hill won’t experience a similar disappointing sophomore season? Secondly, just how many touches can Jeremy Hill get with Giovani Bernard around? Doesn't that limit his ceiling?
Let’s start with why Jeremy Hill is a much better running back than Giovani Bernard. Hill had a way better rookie season than Bernard did and his competition (Bernard himself) was much stronger than Bernard had (BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who wasn’t even in the league the following year). Bernard showed clear signs that he wasn’t capable of being an every down back when he failed to exceed 45 rush yards or a 3.75 YPC over the final four games of 2013, including the playoff loss. Jeremy Hill on the other hand was at his best at the end of his rookie season with 20+ carries and over 100 yards in each of his final three regular season games. Admittedly, he wasn’t great in the playoff loss against the Colts but he did score a touchdown and exceed that 45 yard mark that Bernard could not. Bernard never went over 15 carries in his rookie season. Hill did so six times, a reassuring sign that he can handle the workload of a premier running back.
Can Hill have enough of a workload to be a top fantasy RB in 2015? Giovani Bernard missed three games in 2014. When he came back, Hill had grabbed the #1 role and his workload from that point on is a reasonable expectation for what we will see this year. In the final seven games, (including the playoff loss) Hill totaled 122 carries and 11 receptions. That’s 19 touches per game which equates to 304 touches in a season, well ahead of the 249 touches in his rookie year. Even better, he had over 20 carries in each of the final three regular season games. That may be a sign that his touch total will be even higher.
Only five running backs exceeded 300 touches last season. Notably absent from that list? Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles, two of the top picks so far in mock drafts. I think the only question that remains is can Jeremy Hill be productive enough to merit a first round ADP? Based on his stats once he became the clear number one option in Cincy, it’s an overwhelming YES! In the final nine games, Jeremy Hill had 929 rush yards at a 5.4 YPC and six touchdowns. That is phenomenal. In fact, it’s so good that only DeMarco Murray had more rush yards during that span, by three yards!
It’s true a couple other RBs had more total yards during that span. That list is made up of Marshawn Lynch, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy and C.J. Anderson. Those first three all have an ADP in the first five picks! C.J. Anderson doesn’t but I also have significant concerns with Denver’s offensive line following the losses of Orlando Franklin and Ryan Clady. The Bengals have no such concerns as they return all five starters of a very good line and even spent their first two picks on offensive tackles! I can’t say this enough: Jeremy Hill is an absolute steal at his current ADP. I would be surprised if it doesn’t rise by the time you are having your real draft in August, but you know what? I will gladly take Jeremy Hill even in the late first. He looks like an exceptional talent with a very good offensive line and based on what we’ve seen, Giovani Bernard poses no real threat to his touches.
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