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Much like any other position there are always quarterbacks that surprise and far exceed their ADP. Just last year there were four QBs with an ADP of QB15 or worse that finished in the top ten (Wilson, Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Tannehill). The year before that saw Andy Dalton explode for 33 touchdowns and finish as QB5. 2015 is no different and while the general belief in 2QB leagues is that you want to get the QB position taken care as soon as possible, I’m here to open your eyes to some lesser options that can still make your team highly competitive. Being that this is sleeper QBs for 2QB leagues, I’ll be highlighting my favorites with a Fantasy Pros ADP outside the top 15.
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Carson Palmer Fantasy Pros ADP QB26
Palmer suffered multiple injuries last year including a season-ending torn ACL. That coupled with his age (35) have caused people to stay far away this year. The Cardinals QB situation was horrendous without Palmer but he was actually pretty good in his six starts last year, in five of those starts he threw for at least 249 yards with multiple touchdowns and no more than one turnover.
I think Palmer’s history as a mistake prone QB hurts him. He’s not really that quarterback anymore, something seems to have changed around the middle of last season. Over Palmer’s last 13 games he has a respectable 10 interceptions. It looks even better when you realize that he had 4 of those ints in a single game against the Seahawks in 2013. If you had any other semi-decent option, you likely weren’t starting Palmer that game anyway. The new Carson Palmer is a more mistake-free player that can really help fantasy players, especially in 2QB.
If we look at Palmer’s last 16 games, dating back to the 7th game of 2013, here is the stat line we get: 4417 yards, 28 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Even though I knew I liked Palmer, I was impressed when I actually saw that line. In standard scoring (25 yards/pt, 4 pt TD, -2 int) that would put Palmer at QB14 last year, far ahead of his current ADP. Even if you’re a little scared off by his age and injuries, that still leaves a lot of room for good value.
I really like Palmer’s receivers too. Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown isn’t exactly a superstar trio but it’s really solid. All three guys could break 800 yards this season. The Cardinals also have two solid pass-catching backs in Andre Ellington and rookie David Johnson. Johnson caught at least 30 passes in all four of his seasons at Northern Iowa. The Cardinals also recently signed Jermaine Gresham. HC Bruce Arians doesn’t emphasize tight ends in the passing game but I consider that a modest upgrade over John Carlson who led the Cards in receiving at TE last year.
Palmer is old and coming off a serious injury so I certainly understand the concerns. However he offers a lot of upside. He should throw for over 4000 yards and 20+ touchdowns without being the turnover machine that many seem to think he is. Sure there is a chance he isn’t the same player following a torn ACL at 35 but he’s going after guys like Alex Smith, Derek Carr and both rookies Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. I think Palmer’s upside far outweighs all of those players and he is a safer pick than the rookies. I know Palmer is a guy I will be targeting in my 2QB league this year.
Andy Dalton Fantasy Pros ADP QB25
I’ve already written positive things about A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Jeremy Hill and Tyler Eifert this offseason so it’s only natural that I’m going to like Andy Dalton as well. I think everyone expected major regression from Dalton last year and it happened. Dalton saw major yardage and touchdown drops while many of his receivers were hurt and Jeremy Hill emerged as a really good running back. Despite all the negatives, Dalton finished as QB19. To me that seems like the floor this year as long as he doesn’t suffer such a high number of injuries to his receivers again.
I really do believe that we’ll see more of 2013 Dalton than 2014. The Bengals missed 22 games from A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Giovani Bernard. Those three accounted for over 60% of Dalton’s passing yards in ‘13. Tyler Eifert was a player many believed was poised for a breakout and the Bengals got an entire 8 snaps out of him last year. I’m not sure how any quarterback could be expected to thrive under those circumstances.
We now head into 2015 and Dalton’s value has plummeted as a result of his failure to match his ‘13 numbers. It seems the fantasy community has overcorrected on Dalton, dropping his ADP to QB25 despite a top-twenty finish and a string of injuries. Another knock against Dalton is his inconsistency and tendency to fall apart against good defenses. It’s true, he did have two seriously awful games against Cleveland last year but he had just three total games under double-digit points. That’s less than Tom Brady and Eli Manning had (even after OBJ was around, Eli had 3 such games).
What Dalton lacked were the explosive games he had in 2013. That year he had four games of 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns. This past year he had no such games and I think that’s where the health of his receivers came into play. The offense had to play more conservative because it lacked its top receivers. OC Hue Jackson recently mentioned that he plans to “open Pandora’s box more” and expects the Bengals offense to be “very dynamic”. To me this confirms that Jackson felt he had to hold back last year because of the personnel. I’m excited to see what that means for this Bengals offense in 2015 and I’m expecting major improvements across the board. I would caution that Dalton appears to have a very tough schedule but even if you only start him 8-10 times he is worth it at his current ADP.
Alex Smith Fantasy Pros ADP QB22
I’ll start by saying I definitely think Smith lacks the upside that Palmer and Dalton offer. What he lacks in upside he makes up for in extreme consistency by being one of the most conservative and mistake-free quarterbacks. While Smith’s conservative playstyle is often used against him in fantasy arguments and isn’t exactly a good thing, I don’t think it has to be a bad thing either. Smith has finished in the top 20 each of his two seasons in Kansas City despite one of the most dreadful sets of wide receivers in the league. Guys with names like Junior Hemingway, Frankie Hammond and A.J. Jenkins have all logged meaningful snaps for the Chiefs at WR over the past two seasons. All three would be lucky to make the roster on several of the teams in the NFL.
The wide receivers Smith had were so bad last year that none of them recorded a single touchdown. That’s not entirely on the receivers but given that Smith had an 18:6 TD:INT last year it does say a lot about the quality of his WRs vs the other pass catchers. The Chiefs finally made an effort to change that this season with the signing of ‘14 breakout Jeremy Maclin who previously played for Andy Reid with the Eagles. They also drafted super athletic Chris Conley in the third round and saw rookie Albert Wilson begin to establish himself at the end of last season. It’s still far from being among the best group of receivers in the league but it does appear to be a serious upgrade.
The Chiefs also have Travis Kelce at tight end. Kelce had a promising first full season and finished as the TE9. He slowly ate away at Anthony Fasano’s snaps last year and only played in 75% or more of the snaps for the first time in week 11 against Seattle. He would play at least that much the rest of the way. While Smith’s game against Seattle was an understandable clunker, over his final five games (he sat out week 17) with Kelce in for the majority of snaps, Smith averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game. He threw for multiple touchdowns in three of those five games and 290+ yards in three games as well. It’s a small sample size but it’s a hint at the kind of numbers Smith might be capable of with better receivers (Albert Wilson was emerging during this time as well).
Even with Jeremy Maclin around, Albert Wilson and Chris Conley vying for the WR2 spot and Travis Kelce playing nearly every snap I’m not going to predict a total overhaul of Smith’s conservative style but he did throw for 23 touchdowns in 2013 when he finished as QB14. He could certainly replicate those numbers. If you’re going to wait on QB in a 2QB league it makes sense to grab someone safe in addition to an upside QB or two. Smith can give you that safety while still offering a little upside as well.
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