RADIO
I did a recent 12-team standard mock draft on ESPN, and decided that I would avoid running backs in the first couple rounds to see what sort of team I could craft without a top-of-the-line stud.
I had the 10th pick, and while I won't outline the entire draft results, I'll mention who I picked and who was available that I considered. I'll only discuss the first 12 rounds, as after that it's mostly defenses and kickers.
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2015 Fantasy Football 12-Team Mock Draft Results and Analysis
Round 1--Dez Bryant, DAL WR
Dez might be the most consistent wide receiver in the last three seasons. Since 2012, he's averaged 1,311 yards and 13 touchdowns every season, including an astounding 16-TD season in 2014. While I don't expect him to match that total in 2015, I don't see any reason why he won't hammer that average again. He's young, healthy, and still Tony Romo's go-to guy in the end zone. He seemed like the obvious choice to me with Antonio Brown going two picks earlier
Round 2--Julio Jones, ATL WR
In the two seasons that Julio Jones has played at least 15 games, he's averaged 1,395 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He's the unquestioned number one receiver for Matt Ryan, and he should be a target vacuum with Roddy White breaking down and not much else for Ryan to throw to. Again, consistency is key when drafting in the early rounds. I encourage any fantasy player to read Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto in regards to minimizing risk when drafting.
Round 3--Justin Forsett, BAL RB
Forsett was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners in 2014, and I don't see any reason why he can't continue to be successful in the Baltimore offense, particularly in PPR formats. He could very well catch 50 balls this year, and as the feature back he should have no trouble posting 1,100 rushing yards as well. The touchdowns will be hit-or-miss, but I anticipate he'll finish the year with anywhere from six to nine.
I very nearly took another wide receiver for my flex spot, as Kelvin Benjamin, DeAndre Hopkins and Jordan Matthews were all available, but I figured the running back pickings would be far too slim next time around. Jonathan Stewart and Joseph Randle were both available at this point, but I felt like Forsett was my safest bet. Again, minimize the risk.
Round 4--Jonathan Stewart, CAR RB
Look at that! Stewart was still available. With a core of Forsett, Stewart, Bryant and Jones, I was extremely happy with my squad at this point.
Round 5--Rashad Jennnigs, NYG RB
Rashad Jennings is not getting anywhere near enough love, as the resurgent Giants passing game is getting all of the hype going into 2015. In the games he started last year, Jennings averaged 96 total yards per game, and if he stays healthy he could be a very nice RB2 in any format. I'm always happy to have a team's primary mail-carrier as my flex. Tevin Coleman and Gio Bernard were both still available here, but Coleman may not even win the starting job and I am not a believer in Bernard.
Round 6--Greg Olsen, CAR TE
Safe, safe, safe. Olsen is probably the safest tight end outside of Rob Gronkowski, and I love being able to count on 800 yards and six touchdowns from my tight end spot. He won't win any weeks by himself, but double-digit points on most weeks is exactly what you want.
Round 7--Shane Vereen, NYG RB
Rashad Jennings is still somewhat fragile, and if he goes down Vereen will see an expanded workload. Andre Williams would likely take over the power back snaps, but I still think Vereen has value on his own as a pass-catcher. In PPR formats, he could be a low-end RB2, and I like having him as a bye week or injury fill-in if need be. Not much else catching my eye in this round, although I did briefly consider stealing DeMarco Murray's handcuff in Ryan Mathews. He could be an absolute monster if Murray were to go down.
Round 8--Doug Martin, TB RB
With Jones and Bryant as my wide receivers, I was content to wait and find value backups in the late rounds. I took Martin here because he has decent upside this year, and because Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith has already declared he'll be the team's lead back. They won't lean on rookie Jameis Winston right away, and the Muscle Hamster could re-establish himself as a quality RB2. I thought about a quarterback here, specifically Tony Romo, but I still think that you can wait until the 9th round or so for a quality quarterback.
Round 9--Marques Colston, NO WR
Round 10--DeVante Parker, MIA WR
Round 11--David Cobb, TEN RB
Round 12--John Brown, ARI WR
I loved this portion of my draft, as I think I found a lot of really great value. Colston is getting up there in age, but he's still Drew Brees' favorite target. He'll finish the year with 800 yards and four or five touchdowns. DeVante Parker has WR1 skills, and once healthy I think he and Tannehill will be an absolute force, particularly in the red zone. Bishop Sankey's leash should be quite short in 2015, and Cobb could end up leading the Titans' backfield by Week 4. John Brown is supremely underrated, and with a healthy Carson Palmer I think he's definitely capable of 1,000 yards in a T.Y. Hilton-type role.
Final Thoughts
Waiting on running backs works this year if you aren't going to get one of the big five (LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch). I like the safe talent options at wide receiver early on versus taking a risk on less certain running backs like LeSean McCoy or DeMarco Murray.
There is plenty of running back value to be had in Rounds 3-5, and even better value at wide receiver later on in the draft. As always, take the draft as it comes to you, but going in with a general outline of how you want to attack the first few rounds usually leads to good decisions.
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