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First Base Power Outage
First Base has historically been a source of home runs and RBI. With perpetual fantasy baseball standouts like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder having off years and missing time due to injuries, first basemen suffered a major power outage. They hit the lowest number of home runs as a group since the 1994 strike year.
The position was once considered so deep that you were virtually guaranteed a shot at a stud. It has morphed into a mine field littered with the husks of high risk, injury prone, or aging players
Miguel Cabrera was a top three draft pick last year, but injuries slowed his season. Yes, a .313 batting average with 25 HR and 109 RBI is considered under achieving in Miggy’s world. He showed up to training camp looking fit, but he is still recuperating from offseason ankle surgery. At the time of this writing, he is not a lock to be ready for opening day. Although he shouldn’t miss too much time, the uncertainty surrounding his health has made him a late first round pick in many preseason drafts.
Paul Goldschmidt is a top five overall draft pick this season and is now commonly accepted as baseball’s best fantasy first baseman. A broken hand prematurely ended his 2014 season, but there shouldn’t be any lingering effects from the injury. You can probably expect him to bat close to .300, hit about 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs. Goldschmidt should also steal his usual allotment of 10 bags, a huge bonus for a first baseman.
What to Look for When Drafting a First Baseman
I used to look for a first baseman with a three year overall batting average of .280, but I’m willing to lower my standards. My ideal first baseman regularly hits between 20 and 30 HR per season. Unless I am playing in a 16 team league, someone with the skill set of a James Loney is not worthy of being my primary fantasy first baseman. I expect my starter to score at least 80 runs and drive in at least 90 runs. Remember, the first base position should be considered the “meat and potatoes” portion of your fantasy lineup. You need a power hitting slugger who can also hit for average.
Typically you will see top tier first basemen like Goldschmidt, Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo and Freddie Freeman chosen within the first three rounds of your draft. Middle tier guys like Victor Martinez, Carlos Santana, Albert Pujols, or Adrian Gonzalez will likely be drafted beginning in the fourth or fifth rounds. They might be available as late as the 6th or 7th rounds in shallow leagues. Keep in mind that draft strategies in rotisserie leagues tend to lean towards picking offensive players before pitchers. In head-to-head leagues, pitchers are placed at a higher premium and drafted earlier than in roto leagues. In general, given the nuances present in fantasy baseball drafts, if you want a top notch first baseman, plan on drafting him by the eighth round.
The Comeback Kids
Votto and Fielder are two intriguing former perennial first round picks who missed significant amounts of time due to injuries last season. On average, both are being selected beginning in the fifth rounds of preseason drafts.
Some fantasy experts consider Votto an injury plagued, washed up veteran. He’s still just 32 years old and played in 162 games as recently as 2013. I think he’s got a good shot at having a bounce back year. If he does, picking him up in the fifth round or even later makes him a very valuable pick.
Fielder’s offensive stats were trending downward even before he underwent cervical fusion surgery last season. I recommend that fantasy owners watch his progress this spring and make sure that he can still drive the ball.
First Base Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
If you’re looking for sleepers, take a gander at Mark Trumbo. He who was limited to 88 games with a foot injury and often gets lost in the shuffle. When healthy, he is capable of a .250 batting average, 30 HR and 100 RBI. He’s being chosen in the 10th round of most preseason drafts and should qualify as an outfielder in most leagues.
Ryan Zimmerman’s has dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout his career. When able to play a full season, he’s typically a .285 hitter who can bang out 25 home runs and drive in 95 RBI. Zimmerman’s anticipated move from third base to first base is expected to help him avoid the disabled list. He’s only 30 years old, available until the 12th round of many leagues, and might also be eligible as an outfielder and third baseman.
Lucas Duda is another potential sleeper who should be available in the 12th or 13th rounds of most drafts. He has 30 home run and 90 RBI potential. If you're looking deeper, Pedro Alvarez will be available as late as the 20th round of many drafts. He’s got power and is moving over from the hot corner. Unfortunately he’s a perpetual .240 hitter – and I’m being optimistic with that batting average.
First base seems like the home for multi-position eligibility, but use the lineup flexibility wisely. Players like Buster Posey and Jonathan Lucroy will probably be eligible at first base, but you are better off utilizing them as catchers due to the lack of depth at that position. Similarly Todd Frazier maybe best used as your top fantasy third baseman instead of your regular first baseman.
Finding Value In The Uncertainty
There are still many questions regarding the first base position as your fantasy draft approaches. Chris Davis has been cleared to use Vyvanse to treat his ADHD. Should you pull the trigger on him in the 8th round? Can Matt Adams learn to hit lefties and regain his power bat this season? Is he worth a 10th round pick? Will Eric Hosmer ever reach his full potential? Can we expect repeat performances from guys like Jose Abreu or Justin Morneau?
I predict Davis will bounce back but don’t expect him to hit 50 home runs. Hosmer has historically been a good second half player. Let someone else draft him in the 12th round and then trade for him after the all-star break. With a .190 batting average against lefties and not being able to handle the defensive shift teams used against him, Adams could be on his way to becoming a platoon player.
You might be able to find some value in the later rounds of your draft, but some of your choices may put your team at risk. Mark Teixeira has pronounced himself gluten, sugar, and dairy free. He says he feels like a kid again, and you can draft him with your last overall pick. Adam Lind and Kennys Vargas have no such dietary restrictions, and I trust them a bit more than “Tex”. Lind should play well at hitter friendly Miller Park. Vargas has shown that he has the potential to hit 20 home runs in the major leagues.
First Base Options & Tiers for 2015
Here’s a brief synopsis of your fantasy first base candidates:
- Fantasy studs: Goldschmidt, Miggy, Abreu, Encarnacion, Rizzo, Freeman
- Former fantasy studs who still have a lot to offer: Pujols, AGonz
- He’s good but don’t expect him to replicate last season: Victor Martinez
- Possible breakout candidates: Vargas, Brandon Belt
- He just might surprise you: Zimmerman
- 1B potential comeback players: Votto, Davis, Fielder (be careful with him)
- They won’t kill your team but you can do better: Moss, Trumbo, Lind, LaRoche, Duda
- You can do a heck of a lot better: Teixeira, Morales, Chris Carter, Ryan Howard, Joe Mauer
- They qualify at 1B but there’s no way you should start them there: Posey, Lucroy
- You’re kidding me right? Loney, Ike Davis, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso
