When the Astros chose Carlos Correa over Byron Buxton with the first pick of the 2012 amateur draft, the decision was met with criticism in some circles. So far, however, Houston has to be pretty happy with how that’s turned out. Correa’s outstanding rookie season is only part of the equation. With the money they saved by selecting Correa over Buxton, the Astros were able to go over-slot on two other picks later in the draft. One of those picks was pitcher Lance McCullers, chosen in the supplemental round.

The emergence of both rookies played a key role in Houston’s return to the postseason, just two years removed from their third straight 100-loss season. McCullers, like Correa, wasn’t expected to even reach the majors this season. There were legitimate questions about his viability as a starter, mostly due to the level of effort in his delivery and the lack of a quality third pitch to complement his fastball and spike curve. He’d also struggled with command, posting a 4.62 BB/9 in 228 innings in the low minors. However, after five starts at Double-A in which McCullers posted gaudy numbers (0.56 ERA, 13.5 K/9), the Astros’ front office decided on an aggressive promotion.

McCullers responded about as well as anyone could have hoped. In 22 starts, he posted a 3.22 ERA, struck out over a batter per inning and kept his walk rate at an acceptable 3.08 per nine. He did struggle to pitch deep into games, only going past the sixth inning in seven of those games. As a result, he logged just a dozen quality starts and half that many victories. Still, as a 21-year-old who had never throw a pitch above High-A before 2015, McCullers’ rookie season was a resounding success. What can we expect from him going forward?

McCullers has a reputation as a pitcher who consistently makes adjustments in an effort to improve, which bodes well. His changeup remains a work in progress and an offering that he doesn’t often use, but according to PITCHf/x data it was mediocre rather than outright awful. In fact, on a per-pitch basis, the change was about as valuable as his fastball. This, as you might guess, leaves the curve as the source of McCullers’ success. If you haven’t seen the pitch in action, stop reading right now and go check out some video. I’ll wait.

*twiddles thumbs*

Welcome back! Filthy, isn’t it? Based on both the numbers and a testimonial from a bona fide big-league pitching coach, McCullers has the best curveball in the game outside of perhaps Craig Kimbrel's. If McCullers washes out as a starter, he’s almost certainly still got a fantasy future at the back of the bullpen.

Like most young pitchers, McCullers will probably struggle with consistency as big-league hitters continue to adjust to him. His primary focus this offseason should be the development of his changeup. If he can turn it into more than a show-me pitch, that should allow him to pitch in the zone more often and work deeper into games. If not, well, the Astros bullpen could probably use the reinforcements. After all, Houston was six outs away from the ALCS before coughing up a lead handed to the relief corps by…Lance McCullers.

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