Jorge Soler (OF, CHC) - 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Target ~120

CURRENT ADP: 171

ANALYSIS: In 2014, then 22-year-old Jorge Soler gave the Wrigley faithful and fantasy owners alike plenty to get excited about, slashing .292/.330/.573 with five homers in just 97 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he stumbled out of the gate in 2015 and never really recovered, turning in an underwhelming .262/.324/.399 line with 10 homers in 101 games. His strikeouts spiked while his power disappeared, and he looked overmatched at times, particularly against breaking pitches. His 67.8% contact rate was 207th of 211 hitters with at least 400 PA, and his swinging strike percentage was higher than all but seven of those players.

Despite the drastic reduction in power, when he did get wood on the ball, he generally crushed it-- nearly 28% of his batted balls were line drives, and his 35.9% hard-hit rate put him in the top 30 among everyday players. This would seem to support his .361 BABIP, which kept his production from completely cratering. Steamer anticipates some regression there, but also a rebound in his power and strikeout rate. Given the improvements Soler had already begun to show in his plate discipline in the second half and postseason, that seems like a smart bet.