Yu Darvish (SP, TEX) - 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Target ~105

CURRENT ADP: 119.3

ANALYSIS: Yu Darvish hasn't pitched since August 9, 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. He missed his age 28 campaign, a time frame when most pitchers are hitting their prime. In 22 starts in 2014, Darvish had a 3.06 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and a 182/49 K/BB ratio. He struck out 30% of batters faced, and he had an improved walk rate (8.1%) and an uncharacteristically high .334 BABIP. Look for that to regress closer to his career average (.295), in turn knocking some points off his WHIP.

Darvish mostly dominated with his slider, which he threw 2,021 times in 2014 and resulted in a .154 average and .231 slugging percentage. PITCHf/x graded the slider as third best in baseball (16.4 wSL), behind only that of Clayton Kershaw and Tyson Ross. However, the only recent pitcher to use a slider effectively pre-surgery, Josh Johnson, saw a noticeable dip in its effectiveness the following year.

The current expectation is for Darvish to return in May, and he has already showed increased velocity in his spring training debut. At 29, he's still in his prime and should be near full strength upon his return. He has a career 3.42 ERA in the second half of the season, which may indicate he tires as the season progresses. The delayed start may allow him to stay fresh in the dog days.

Darvish is tough to trust, but he is worth the gamble in fantasy drafts given his suppressed value and ADP. Stash him in your DL spot and grab a waiver wire option until May. If things turn sour, it's likely you can find a trade partner still willing to pay for name value.