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We're well into fantasy football draft prep season, and RotoBaller is here to help. In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the preseason and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.
This player comparison column comes from RotoBaller lead columnists Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) and Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21). Bill will defend the most exciting player on an unexciting team in Duke Johnson, while Ben extols the virtues of another young back with home run capability and a clear path to playing time in Matt Jones. Feel free to reach out to either or both with questions or opinions.
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Duke Johnson, Jr. (RB, CLE) - Bill Dubiel
After a pedestrian rookie season, Duke Johnson is primed for a breakout 2016 season. Boy, if that's not the most generic fantasy football analysis statement ever written, I don't know what is. However, just because it's cliché doesn't mean it's not true in this case.
Johnson was hyped a ton last year, and rightfully so. He finished his college career as the all-time leading rusher at Miami after being rated the number one running back in the nation coming out of high school. His trademarks were explosiveness and agility, a distinctive patience and burst that allowed him to hit holes and gain extra yards that didn't even appear to be there. On the downside he was not as effective as an interior runner, and there were plenty of concerns over his pass-blocking ability, not unlike Matt Jones.
It's clear watching Johnson at any level that he'll never be a ground-and-pound back--it's just not who he is. At 5'9" and roughly 210 lbs, he doesn't have the body to get in there and bang between the tackles. That absolutely doesn't matter from a fantasy standpoint, because Johnson's abilities as a pass-catcher will keep him fantasy-relevant for as long as he's on the field. Believe it or not (and I had to double-check this to make sure it was even accurate), Johnson was second among all NFL rookies in receptions with a whopping 61, behind only Amari Cooper.
The Browns organization is looking for a fresh start in 2016, and the hiring of Hue Jackson proves that they're serious about competing soon. Jackson is one of the best offensive minds in football today, and he's already shown that he's got a plan for Duke Johnson. According to Jackson, "Duke has suddenness and quickness and he can go catch the ball with anybody...He does so many different things that gives your offense a boost." With Robert Griffin III, stud rookie Corey Coleman and a (hopefully) returning Josh Gordon, Jackson will be able to spread the offense all over the field. Johnson will benefit greatly from defenses having to account for the two dynamic wide receivers, a dangerous tight end in Gary Barnidge, and the fact that RGIII can take off and run at any given time. Someone will (usually) be open, and it will be Johnson a good amount of the time.
I'm not going to talk about Isaiah Crowell. The plodding running back will still have a role in the offense--ya know, whenever they need someone to fall forward for three or four yards. I see the Browns working out of the shotgun a ton, and it'll be Johnson on the field more often than Crowell. The Browns are still going to lose a bunch of games this year, and when they're down there's even more reason for Johnson to be on the field. If anything Johnson will steal some of Crowell's touches on the ground.
Ultimately Johnson's upside is too high not to love given his current ADP. FantasyPros has him as the #73 overall pick, or RB28 in standard formats. If he can catch 80 passes, which is well within the realm of possibility (Danny Woodhead did that last year), and add on 400-500 yards on the ground, Johnson should provide an outstanding return on his investment, especially in any kind of format that provides reception bonuses.
Matt Jones (RB, WAS) - Ben Ruppert
Matt Jones is set to be the starting running back for the Washington Redskins in 2016. Those in standard and PPR leagues should be targeting him as an RB2 for his ability to run and catch passes out of the backfield. The situation he is in now is perfect to set up Jones for a break-out season.
Jones accumulated nearly 800 yards from scrimmage last season as Alfred Morris’ backup. The rookie averaged 16 yards per reception last season, highlighted by his 78-yard scamper in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints. He also made a nifty one-handed grab for a first down in Week 9 against the New England Patriots. On passing downs when he is not going out for passes, he is an excellent pass blocker which should help keep him on the field for all three downs.
Jones did have issues with fumbles during his rookie season, but he would hardly be the first running back to have this problem early in their career--Tiki Barber and Adrian Peterson are two examples that come to mind. Not that I'm comparing Jones to either of those players, but both were able to overcome their issues and be top-flight NFL running backs. I believe with the work Jones is doing in the off-season, the same will apply for him. One way the coaching staff has helped is that they have given Jones a football that has sensors installed inside of it on key pressure points he should always be in contact with. When Jones is holding the ball properly, the ball is silent. However, when Jones is not holding the ball correctly on the sensors, it emits a warning signal that Jones and the coaching staff can hear. They can then call the play, and see where a correction needs to be made. ESPN's John Keim reports the Redskins have "seen what they wanted" from Matt Jones this spring. The Redskins will be much better off at running back than they were in 2015 if Jones performs this season the way he has practiced this spring.
Another big positive for Jones is his lack of competition on the team. The other running backs on the Redskins roster are Chris Thompson, Mack Brown, and seventh-round pick Keith Marshall. The only player who could eat into Jones’ touches are Chris Thompson, who will be the change-of-pace back every now and then. Jones has no real threat, and will handle the bulk of the carries for the Redskins in 2016. Offensive coordinator Sean McVay has said “You’re seeing a much more matured player. I’ve been extremely encouraged with him--his understanding of where he fits in his protections, consistency in his tracks.”
The Redskins have the pleasure of facing the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants twice each every season as well. These three teams all ranked in the bottom 10 teams in the league in rushing defense last season, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for big games for Jones. He has an excellent chance to break out and be a huge contributor this season for both the Redskins and for any fantasy owner smart enough to scoop him up.
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