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This article continues our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year.
The focus of today's piece will be on the Atlanta Falcons, a team that was once one of the more potent sources for fantasy value but has since taken a bit of a step back.
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Offseason Moves
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Mohamed Sanu
Offseason Departures: WR Roddy White
Player to Avoid: RB Devonta Freeman
Quarterback
The days of claiming that Matt Ryan is poised to take the next step into the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacking are far behind us. In fact, those claims never even really came to fruition. Ryan has never finished higher than seventh among fantasy quarterbacks in standard scoring despite several years of hyping him up as the next big thing at the position. That's not so much a knock on his talent as an NFL player as it is him as a fantasy asset. He's "ok" for fantasy purposes, just don't fall into the undying traps about his upside.
On the contrary, the reason to draft Ryan is his floor. He may not possess the upside he once did but he most certainly isn't going to hurt you the way other upstart quarterbacks can in 2016. Admittedly, Ryan did have a down year by his standards as the 19th best QB last season. Owning him has very little to do with expecting high caliber production at this point. You take Matt Ryan because you've married yourself to the idea of waiting on quarterback. He's essentially free to own this year so if you're going to wait to be the last person in your league to grab a passer, you can do far worse than Matty Ice.
Whenever I'm in one of those situations where I'm selecting the 12th, 14th, or whatever number QB off the board as my starter, I prefer to take two of them to give myself a greater chance at finding a diamond in the rough. A Matt Ryan/Derek Carr combination, for example, would be a solid approach to that particular strategy.
Running Backs
If you were to rewind to mid-August 2015 Devonta Freeman wasn't anywhere remotely close to being drafted as a starter in fantasy leagues. In fact, it was roughly around this time when rookie Tevin Coleman was getting some serious buzz as a potential sleeper for the 2015 season. Now, a year removed from that pipe-dream, Freeman is coming off of a stellar season in which he finished as the league's number one fantasy running back and is viewed as a top-10 RB going forward.
Unfortunately for Freeman, a massive chunk of his fantasy production came over the course of just four games. From week three against the Cowboys to week six against the Saints, Freeman racked up an insane total of 462 yards and eight touchdowns. Some of you Freeman truthers out there might want to include the weeks before and after that stretch, adding another score in week two and an additional 116 yards in week seven. Fine, I'll give that to you. The next five games though? Precisely zero touchdowns. How about the rest of the season? He never cracked 100 yards again.
Context is important in every facet of life, fantasy football included. Freeman's season long numbers of 1,061 yards and 11 touchdowns look fantastic on paper. He had himself an amazing year but the fact that such a huge portion of his fantasy points came in a short amount of time scares me for 2016. I still think he's going to be a solid RB1 this season but you know who else I like as an RB1 this year? Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy, and Mark Ingram. All of those players can be had a much more reasonable price so I'm perfectly fine straight up not owning Freeman this year given his price tag.
Back to Coleman for a second; the only reason Freeman even got the starting gig was due to an injury to Coleman in the offseason. Who's to say that Coleman, now expected to be fully healthy for the start of 2016, doesn't get a fresh look? Or that this ends up closer to a committee? He's a must own handcuff for anyone drafting Freeman and he could potentially have value of his own if Freeman falters.
Wide Receivers
We're going to keep the chitchat regarding Julio Jones to a minimum here. After a lost season in 2013 where he only played five games, Julio Jones has now had two fantastic years in a row and is firmly in the discussion as a top five pick for the upcoming campaign. I'm totally fine with taking Julio as early as two behind Antonio Brown in formats that dish out a form of PPR. He's an absolute stud and the "Julio Jones vs Odell Beckham Jr." argument doesn't have a clear edge. He's worth building your team around in round one.
What we should spend more time, though, is the addition of Mohamed Sanu. Sanu constantly battled Marvin Jones for the number two receiver spot in Cincinnati and should have an even clearer path to that role in Atlanta. I would even say he has a quarterback upgrade as well with Matt Ryan under center. The only worry I have about Sanu isn't even about him necessarily it's more about the potential of second year receiver Justin Hardy. Sanu is most definitely worth a look at his 12th round ADP (FantasyFootballCalculator.com) just be sure to keep your eye on Hardy at the start of the year. I don't think this situation is as cut and dry as "well they went out and bought themselves a new number two receiver." Hardy has legit potential and could make some noise in the event Sanu struggles early.
Tight End
Austin Hooper is a young name you'll hear bounced around as a potential candidate to benefit from a Falcons offense looking to rebound. Sadly for Hooper, there are simply way too many more talented tight ends worth drafting ahead of him. Even looking outside the top-12 at the position, there's Jason Witten, Eric Ebron, and Zach Miller to consider before getting to Hooper. Besides, Jacob Tamme is still on this roster so there's a pretty good chance this is a time share situation that you can't benefit from in fantasy.
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