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This article continues off our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each team in the offseason and project what the team will do in the upcoming season.
Today we look at the New England Patriots.
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Offseason Moves
Offseason Acquisitions: TE Martellus Bennett, WR Chris Hogan, RB Donald Brown.
Offseason Departures: TE Scott Chandler, WR Brandon LaFell.
Quarterback
Amidst some injuries, a Matt Cassel sighting, and Deflategate, the quarterback section on the New England Patriots' depth chart has remained the same for 14 full seasons. Tom Brady has racked up nearly 450 touchdowns and nearly 60,000 passing yards, and has brought four Super Bowl rings to a team that has undoubtedly dominated the AFC East since the rivaled New York Jets and Mo Lewis injured at-the-time starter Drew Bledsoe. In came Brady, who has seemingly never left his spot under center. But the 2016 season will start just a bit differently.
Brady will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension. However, his fantasy value will not suffer tremendously and he should be stashed away on benches. Some have tagged Brady as a quarterback on the decline of his Hall of Fame career, that he isn't much of a fantasy quarterback. But Brady still managed to finish in the top-10 of scoring during ten weeks of the regular season with a depleted and injury-plagued offense and supporting cast in 2015. Despite his age and the Patriots tendency to keep the passing attack short and conservative of late, he tallied 36 touchdowns. The mastermind also protected the ball and coughed up only seven interceptions. His productive, fantasy-aiding stats will obviously decrease because of the suspension, but there is no reason to fade Brady. There's just more reason to scoop him up later in drafts now.
Running Backs
It always seems that there is a revolving door of offensive weapons in New England, specifically at the running back position. Last year we saw a rotation of LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, James White, and Dion Lewis. This year, Lewis will be sidelined for about 8-10 more weeks with a knee injury. Bolden is relatively nonexistent for fantasy. Which leaves Blount and White as the main relevant backs for the Patriots. Blount will now have some competition as New England's power back with the young Tyler Gaffney, who in 2013 with Stanford, rushed for 1,709 yards and scored 21 touchdowns.
According to ESPN.com, it appears that Blount is still inching towards the starting role. There is still some reason to be cautious with Blount considering he is coming off a hip injury that kept him out of some action in 2015. However, Blount should still get most first down and goal line carries. He loses value in PPR leagues because of how little he's thrown to.
James White, on the other hand, should see a bulk of targets out of the backfield with Lewis sidelined. In 2015, White accumulated 410 receiving yards, 40 receptions, four touchdowns, and was targeted 54 times; numbers he should easily replicate or exceed. There is certainly no hope in White replacing and filling in for Lewis' ability to make people miss, and therein lies his downside. It's often difficult to bank on a running back who doesn't run. White tallied only 56 yards on 22 attempts; a measly 2.5 yards per carry. This spells predictability for New England's offense.
Blount's in the game, run. White is in the game, pass. White makes for a better, late option in PPR league than in standard leagues. Donald Brown has also thrown himself into the mix, but his role is as uncertain as Brandon Bolden's. It is still too early to tell who will emerge. Too much variety is never good for fantasy.
Wide Receivers
Injuries have plagued this part of New England's depth chart in the past. The Pats certainly had another scare when Julian Edelman tweaked his foot during practice in early August. He was recently held out of a preseason matchup against the Chicago Bears, but the Pats were simply being cautious with one of their top weapons. Cautious or not, Edelman has had a knack for getting hurt and has played 16 games in a season only once in his career. Last season he played in only nine games but found the end zone seven times. Despite his track record, it would be silly to avoid Edelman in any draft. He shouldn't miss any time to start the regular season.
Danny Amendola continues his stay on the PUP list and has no timetable for a return, according to CBSsports.com. In 14 games last season, Amendola was relatively quiet, posting only two 100 receiving yard performances and three touchdowns overall.
It would be most wise to keep an eye on Chris Hogan. Hogan, bitten by the injury bug early in camp, appears to be healthy and potentially on track for an every-down role. He can start on the outside or give Amendola a run for his money as New England's slot receiver; a role that the Pats often favor and use to exploit opposing defenses. Hogan has not had much experience in the league, but has 77 receptions in the past two seasons combined. Although, his weakness lies with his two most important weapons; his hands. He dropped 8.5% of targets last season; the worst out of the 85 receivers who were targeted at least 50 times, according to ESPN.com.
Malcolm Mitchell could also emerge in New England, but is battling a dislocated shoulder and could miss the start of the regular season. Mitchell, a potential fantasy sleeper, will need to return healthy and find his way through the congested offensive attack of the Patriots. Mitchell was off to a solid start in New England's first preseason tilt, accumulating 55 yards on four catches, before he injured his elbow in the second quarter. According to ESPNBoston.com, Mitchell has a solid shot at serving as the team's 'X' receiver. It will be difficult to trust him upon draft day, but keep an eye on his status come Week 1.
Tight Ends
This one is a no-brainer. Rob Gronkowkski. He is the league's top tight end and has finished first or second in tight end scoring five years in a row. Yes, he's had his own injury troubles, but there is zero reason to avoid Gronk. The acquisition of Martellus Bennett can only help him, as a safe and solid option on downs of rest. Bennett's fantasy value, on the other hand, has decreased. His role on the team will not jack any looks away from Gronk, and is no more than a boom-or-bust TE2. The good news for Bennett is that the Patriots often line up in a two tight end set. Expect Brady, and Jimmy Garoppolo, to look his way several times a game.
Kicker
Stephen Gostkowski. The best in the league. He has finished as the top fantasy-scoring kicker three years in a row, and will get a ton of chances to make it four straight with New England's impressive offense.
