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This article continues our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year.
Today's piece focusses on the Washington Redskins, a team that was a fantasy surprise in 2015.
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Offseason Moves
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Josh Doctson, TE Vernon Davis
Offseason Departures: RB Alfred Morris
Player to avoid: QB Kirk Cousins
Player to reach for: RB Matt Jones
Quarterback
If you had come to me in August 2015 and told me that Kirk Cousins would finish the year as the eighth best fantasy quarterback in standard scoring I would have had you tested for psychedelic drugs. Yet here we are, one year later, talking about Cousins ending up with 4,166 yards and 29 touchdowns, the eighth best fantasy QB in 2015. The question is, how repeatable of a showing is that?
The short answer is "not very repeatable." Move along...kidding. I think the more appropriate analysis on Cousins would be to compare him to 2013 Nick Foles. That was the year where Foles came off the bench to throw 27 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Then in the summer of 2014, some were talking him up as the next surefire fantasy darling. Granted, the situations aren't identical since Cousins isn't being drafted as a stud but the comparison remains; they're both quarterbacks who exceeded expectations and are now being viewed as fantasy options in the follow up draft.
I don't think Cousins is a bad player by any means but in looking at his ADP courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator, spending a 10th round pick on him seems pretty high. Considering the players you'd have to pass on to get him at that spot (Sammie Coates, Antonio Gates, and Tyrod Taylor to name a few) he just doesn't possess enough value to invest in.
I know most of the "wait on quarterback" truthers will say that he's not going high so if you on the position it's ok to take him. To that I say, if you're waiting until the 10th round just to take Kirk Cousins, why not keep on waiting? Even if you don't want a one year wonder like Taylor, guys like Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, and Matt Ryan are going plenty after Cousins, all of whom have a more proven track record of success. Stafford was the ninth best fantasy QB last year so it's not like it'd even be a significant dropoff if Cousins repeats. Besides, I'd much rather have my fantasy hopes tied to someone like Matt Ryan rebounding than crossing my fingers on Cousins. I get the idea of waiting on QB, I just don't believe Cousins is the right option for that strategy.
Running Backs
The departure of Alfred Morris has left the door wide open for Matt Jones to have a big year for Washington. Entering his rookie season last year, Jones was talked up as a potential sleeper to eat into Morris' workload and although that happened at various points in the season, he didn't really turn into a solid starter. Now with the job all to himself, Jones seems poised to breakout in 2016.
The knocks on Jones are twofold. For one, he had serious fumbling issues last year which could be attributed to rookie jitters. Second, Jones may lose some targets out of the backfield to fellow RB Chris Thompson. I think the latter is a more realistic concern than the former, especially in PPR formats. Either way, it's hard to find backs who will get the bulk of the looks on the ground at the RB2 level and that's exactly what you're expecting out of Jones. He showed some playmaking ability last year so even if he doesn't have the receptions to bolster his stats, he could be just one big run away from winning you your week.
Jones is currently being taken in the fifth round and even though I agree with that spot in theory, there are still a couple backs going ahead of him that irk me. Give me Jones over an inconsistent Jeremy Hill, Dion Lewis coming off an ACL tear, and an overrated DeMarco Murray. As for Thompson. I wouldn't look into him as a PPR play until we see him actually produce on the field. He might be worth a mid-season pickup, if that.
Wide Receivers
The Redskins are home to a trio of wide receivers who could be the key to Cousins' success in 2016. Between DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and rookie Josh Doctson, this is one of the stronger wideout corps in the NFL. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, it might be like playing Russian Roulette in regard to who it is will produce on a weekly basis.
Let's start with Jackson. Jackson is by far the most "big play" dependent player on the team and has the ability to win you your week with one massive outing. On the flip side, he also has the potential to put up several four-catch for 40-yard duds in a row before those strong weeks come to fruition. Luckily, Jackson's ADP already has that hit-or-miss attribute baked into his ranking. He's going around the eighth round, within a few picks of rookie Sterling Shepard and veteran Marvin Jones. A bunch of those players in that area have the potential to be steals if things go according to plan so I'm totally fine if Jackson is the one you prefer. Just be weary of the fact that although the big 130 yard, two touchdown games are a possibility, so is the complete opposite of that stat line.
I'm going to make the conscious decision to lump Pierre Garcon and Josh Doctson together here. My reasoning for that is pretty simple in that Doctson is currently nursing a hamstring injury and hasn't been able to practice. That's a huge blow for a rookie since he needs to establish a rapport with his quarterback in order to be productive. Garcon, on the other hand, has been left for dead on fantasy draft boards despite churning out respectable numbers throughout his career. If Doctson ends up missing any time, Garcon will resume his status as the number two wide receiver and could place a stronghold on that position.
Whatever ends up happening, I don't think you're going to want to spend a high pick on either player. Doctson is worth a flier toward the end of your draft while Garcon is another player to keep an eye on once the season starts. It's possible that Doctson heals quickly and becomes a target monster while DeSean stretches the field vertically. It's also equally possible that Doctson is this year's Kevin White and ends up not being a factor his rookie season. We're in a holding pattern here, folks.
Tight End
Despite signing Vernon Davis this summer, Jordan Reed is still the workhorse tight end of the Redskins entering the season. 2015's number two tight end, Reed is an absolute beast whenever he's on the field. I emphasize "whenever he's on the field" because he's had his share of injuries throughout his career, specifically with concussions. Even with that in mind, Reed should still be viewed as a lock to finish the year in the top-three at the position because even with that potent trio of wide receivers, he's the best pass catching option they have, hands down.
Reed tends to go in the late third/early fourth round and although that's a bit high for my taste, it's extremely easy to justify, especially if you've solidified studs at other positions by then. His 87 receptions for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns through 14 games last year make him an asset worth having on any fantasy team, particularly PPR formats. Similar to the ideology of waiting on QB, don't dismiss the idea entirely. Wait and see how your draft shakes out and if Reed truly is the best player available when it's your turn to pick in round four or five, pounce.
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