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It's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy football drafts, and Rotoballer is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.
Our first article comes from lead columnist Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) and featured writer Pierre Camus (@pfunk00). Bill will defend Lamar Miller and his prospects in the newly revamped Houston Texans offense while Pierre extols the virtues of perennial fantasy superstar Jamaal Charles as he returns from another ACL injury.
Feel free to reach out to either or both with questions or opinions.
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Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - Bill Dubiel
I must have used the hashtag #FREELAMAR a few dozen times last year. It killed me to watch him receive 12 or fewer carries in nine of the 16 games that the Dolphins played last year.
Despite his criminal under-use, Miller still managed to grind out 872 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground (good for a healthy 4.5 yards per carry) and another 397 yards and two touchdowns through the air (8.4 yards per reception). Looking back at his career numbers, things get even better, albeit more tragic. In 60 total games across the last three seasons, Miller has averaged a shade under 4.6 YPC, but has been granted an average of 12.23 rushing attempts per game. That number comes despite Miller playing in all 16 games in each season. So far, and I'm literally knocking on wood as I write this, he has proven himself to be incredibly durable and incredibly effective, and there's no reason for either to change as he enters his age-25 season.
On a happier note, Miller traded in the South Beach teal (that's teal, right?) and orange for Houston red and blue, and I for one could not be happier. The Texans finished 2015 with the fifth-most rushing attempts, although they were only able to parlay that into the 15th-most rushing yards thanks to the general ineptitude of their backfield options after Arian Foster was lost for the season (3.7 YPC as a team). Trade in Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes' sub-par skill sets for a player of Lamar Miller's caliber, and you're in business.
Houston head coach Bill O'Brien is a lot of things, but he's no fool--he knows how to use a feature back. In his first year as the Texans' head coach, Arian Foster was able to pick up 1,246 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground in just 13 games played. Add to that the 327 yards and five touchdowns he had through the air and you have a top-five fantasy running back. Oh, by the way, the Texans finally (probably) have a legitimate quarterback, and with stud rookie Will Fuller joining the dynamic DeAndre Hopkins on the outside, there should be even more room to run for Miller than there was for Foster.
If I need to spell it out, I will. Miller's talent + legitimate usage = fantasy gold. He currently has an average ADP of 17 according to FantasyPros.com, which would make him the eighth running back off the board. That slots him behind Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Charles and Devonta Freeman, all of whom I firmly believe Miller will finish ahead of this year. This dude is an explosion waiting to happen, and I think once Bill O'Brien lets him off the leash he's going to win quite a few fantasy championships for owners smart enough to snag him.
Jamaal Charles (RB, KC) - Pierre Camus
Jamaal Charles a second-round pick? To channel my inner Nell Carter, "gimme a break!" Charles has been a bona fide top-five pick each of the last three years and has justified those rankings by finishing as a top-10 RB five times before the age of 30.
The last time Charles was available this late in drafts was 2012, after missing nearly the entire 2011 season with an ACL tear. Four years later and here we are again, as he looks to rebound from another ACL injury. Jumpy fantasy owners will likely scream "injury risk!" and avoid Charles altogether in favor of shiny new toys like David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott. One look at Charles' track record should encourage cooler heads to prevail, however, as he is as close to a sure thing at the running back position as you can get.
Jamaal Charles has a career average of 5.5 yards per carry. He has never finished a season with an average under 5.0 YPC. Never. When he is healthy, he is almost guaranteed to break 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. A comparable player like Lamar Miller has barely cracked 1,000 yards once in his career, while Charles has done so in each of the five full seasons he has played. Simply glossing over those numbers to take a chance on an unproven commodity doesn't seem like sound fantasy strategy. As they say, you can't win your draft in the first round, but you sure can lose it.
What about Charcandrick West? He looked good last year! And that other guy they have... they'll replace Charles. West's success (and to some extent Spencer Ware) is more a result of the opportunities in Kansas City's running attack than superior talent. West helped fantasy owners for a few weeks, but he only averaged 4.0 Y/A. Ware actually finished with a superior rushing average (5.51) and six TD, but he did the bulk of his damage in two starts against San Diego and Buffalo and did little after that. Neither are future superstars or serious threats to the starting job of a stud like Charles.
But what about injuries? I'm scared to draft him! The truth is as soon as Charles hits the field, he is just as likely as any other player to suffer the exact same injury. Charles has been declared ready for training camp and should be good to go for Week 1. While other RB will be getting their feet wet in the league or learning a new offense, Charles will already be ripping off long runs against the Chargers. Going back to 2012, the year after his last ACL tear, here's how he finished that season: 1,745 total yards, 94.3 rushing yards per game and a Pro Bowl selection. Wanna bet against him this year?
There is no reason Charles isn't worthy of a late first-round pick. Sure, you can take the shiny new toy and hope that it works better. Just don't start crying when you see old reliable running right by it though.
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