Justin Bour (1B, MIA) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~270

CURRENT ADP: 302

ANALYSIS: Justin Bour was a popular low-end sleeper pick heading into the 2016 season, and he was certainly on his way to proving that to be true heading into July. In just three months he had racked up 15 HR, 46 RBI and a .873 OPS. The excitement came to an immediate halt, however, after a sprained ankle on July 2 led to a stint on the 60-day DL. Bour finally returned in September, but was noticeably not in his first half form, and failed to hit another HR in his remaining 20 games.

Bour has legit left-handed power. His 21.4 PA/HR ratio was in the same neighborhood as Anthony Rizzo, who hit 32 bombs over the full season. After posting an ISO of .218 and .211 in consecutive seasons, I have no doubt Bour can immediately be a 30-HR guy. He is aided by impressive plate discipline, which reaped a 0.68 BB:K ratio that ranked top 10 among first basemen (with min. 300 PA), and was once again right on par with Anthony Rizzo.

The main concern with Bour, as is with many left-handed power hitters, is his inability to hit southpaws. He owns a career .562 OPS and .068 ISO against LHP, which can continue to limit his fantasy potential. But Don Mattingly has expressed his desire for Bour to continue to gain exposure to lefties this year, which means the plate appearances will be there and hopefully will lead to an improvement in the split. Last season's injury helps lower Bour's draft stock in 2017, as he is currently going undrafted in standard leagues.