Vince Velasquez (SP, PHI) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~160

CURRENT ADP: 184

ANALYSIS: Vince Velasquez flashed his huge upside early in 2016 with a dominant, 16-strikeout complete game against the Padres. The 24-year old righty held a 10.44 K/9 rate last season, as well as a FIP/xFIP of 3.96/.3.67 that suggest he pitched better than his 4.12 ERA would indicate. His season was cut short by the Phillies after he reached his innings limit, ending the year with 131 innings.

The fatigue may have gotten to Velasquez; after posting a 3.32 ERA in the first half, he faded down the stretch with a 5.33 ERA over his final 52.1 innings. He should be able to reach 170 innings if he stays healthy, and should be more accustomed to a major league workload this season. Velasquez has an elite fastball that averages 94 mph and tops out at 97.8 mph. This pitch generated a swinging strike rate of 11.4 percent last season. Velasquez is also working this offseason to refine his curveball, something he feels he didn’t utilize enough last year. He may get shut down late in the year again, but has the raw stuff to dominate until that point.