Dan Straily (SP, MIA) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~305

CURRENT ADP: 335

ANALYSIS: Dan Straily was able to make some minor adjustments in his game last season that had a huge impact on his success. The underlying statistics say he still has work to do (4.88/5.02 FIP/xFIP last season), but he certainly took a big step forward. After winning one game the previous two seasons with an unsightly 6.42 ERA, Straily was a 14-game winner last season for the Reds with a 3.76 ERA. He was 18th in the majors with 20 quality starts, and threw a career-high 191.1 innings.

What changed that made him a more effective pitcher, you ask? Pitch selection. He utilized his changeup more, and had one of the league’s best sliders, which allowed the seventh-fewest hits per nine innings in the NL. Throwing breaking pitches for strikes helped him become less predictable in hitters’ counts. The change was minor, but has been effective. He held hitters to a .218 average last season (down from .249 the previous two seasons). He still has work to do; his 3.43 BB/9 and 12.0 percent HR/FB rate both need to drop, but he is well on his way to becoming a consistent, back-end fantasy starter.