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2017 Keeper Values: Catcher Rankings - Tier Three

What's up RotoBallers. Welcome back to my series on keeper leagues. Today I'll be taking a look at catcher keeper values for fantasy baseball (tier three), for those of you deciding what players to keep for your teams.

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft round in order to keep a player into the up-coming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as: the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants.

For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used. If you play in a custom league with non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

How My Keeper Valuation Formula Works

The Keeper Values are derived from my 15 step Keeper Valuation Formula. The product is a quanitative depiction of a players ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners needs based on the cost they payed for the player in the previous season (2016 ADP). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player, keeping him at his associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude, will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.

TIER SCORE EXPLANATION
1 >75 Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT.
2 50-75 Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept.
3 25-49 You are gaining value with these players, but not as much as your opponents are, potentially. Consider if your options are limited.
4 0-24 Break even point. Minimal value. Only consider if you have a large quantity of Keeper selections.
5 -99-0 Keeping these players will hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding any value. Dont waste a Keeper selection here.
6 <-100 The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away.

 

2017 Top Catcher Keeper Values: #3-7

7. Kyle Schwarber, CHC (Fourth Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 21.31

Technically, Schwarber falls slightly into Tier Four, but how can you leave the man out? In just 69 games during his rookie season in 2015, the Hoosier hit 16 HR and 43 RBI, while scoring 52 runs. His extremely-hyped 2016 campaign was shortened to just five PA due to a gruesome knee injury suffered in the outfield, but as we saw during the Cubs magical postseason run, the dude can still swing the stick. The fantasy gods have granted us the gift of another year of catcher eligibility for Schwarbs, which greatly increases his value.

I was personally surprised Schwarber scored as well as he did in the formula due to his high ADP from last season. But I guess when you can have a projected Top 20 outfielder with 30+ HR potential hitting in front of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo sitting in your catcher position on your roster, you can certainly receive dividends. There have even been reports this offseason of Schwarber leading off in 2017 against RHP.

This is going to be fun.

 

6. Evan Gattis, HOU (19th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 26.74

Its great to see Gattis receiving catcher eligibility again after going all of 2015 without squatting behind the plate. We can all thank Jason Castro's offensive ineptness. Along with seeing 55 G at catcher, Gattis also broke the 30 HR crest for the first time in his career. El Oso Blanco led the position with 32 HR, .257 ISO, and a .508 SLG. His 24.1 HR/FB% was a career high, however, with his LD% increasing every season since 2013, he's clearly not getting lucky hitting bloopers.

The main issue with Gattis in 2017 will be consistent playing time. With the acquisitions of Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Josh Reddick, it won't be the norm to see Gattis in the starting lineup. However, Gattis hit .288/.341/.545 against LHP in 2016, while McCann and Reddick struggled mightily versus the southpaws slashing .218/.317/.345 and .155/.212/.155 respectively. So there seems to be plenty of hope Gattis gets playing time on the weak side of some platoons at the least. I mean when he posts the second highest WAR among catchers over the second half of last season, it's got to be tough to keep the man on the pine.

 

5. Yasmani Grandal, LAD (19th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 42.43

Despite making his first All-Star Game appearance in 2015, Yasmani Grandal had his true break out last season after smacking 27 HR and 72 RBI for the Dodgers. The switch-hitter carries over a putrid BA (.228), but redeemed himself in OBP leagues thanks to the second highest BB% among catchers. Like Gattis, Grandal experienced a major hike in his HR/FB%, but somewhat justified the rise with a 9% increase in his Hard Hit Percentage. He also might have helped his cause by his sheer ability to destroy fastballs.

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(Fangraphs.com)

Grandal's all-around production potential is lower than that of Gattis, especially considering the BA, but Grandal is a much safer bet due to playing time with only youngster Austin Barnes behind him. Enjoy the power from the only other catcher to eclipse the 25 HR plateau, and expect much of what we saw in the second half of last season to reappear for Grandal in 2017. Keep throwing this dude the cheese!

 

4. J.T. Realmuto, MIA (19th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 44.19

As you can see, the 19th round was a popular one for catchers last season. My favorite, and the formula's favorite from this group is J.T. Realmuto. The only catcher to join the 10/10 club (maybe less than a club, maybe 10/10 affiliation is more accurate), JT hit 10 HR, stole 12 bases, and slashed a sexy .303/.343/.428 in 2016. He suffers from a strange reverse split, .617 OPS vs LHP/ .806 vs RHP, and understandably mashes away from the spacious Marlins Park (72 wRC+ Home/ 141 Away). Despite the splits, Realmuto earned the third highest WAR among catchers last season after being drafted as a #12 catcher.

Hitting at the bottom of the order really caps Realmuto's counting stats, and after boasting the highest BABIP (.357) among qualified catchers, one can reasonably expect a dip in his terrific BA falling somewhere close to his .281 career average. But those SB and a respectable BA are still valuable at the catcher position, espcially if you can gain over five rounds of value. RotoBaller's Expert Rankings project Realmuto right outside the top 150, placing the 25 year old around round 13 in 2017 drafts.

 

3. Jonathan Lucroy, TEX (Ninth Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 49.65

Finishing the 2016 as the top ranked fantasy catcher, Jonathan Lucroy seemed to fit in just fine on his new team in Arlington. The two time All Star hit a career high 24 HR, knocked in a position-leading 81 RBI, and hit over .290 for the third time in his career. The power was a sight for sore eyes after a seven HR display in 2015, as he nearly doubled his ISO last season.

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Lucroy will continue to hit in the heart of the Rangers lineup, which scored the seventh most runs last season. The added DH option will only help his case for at-bats as he creeps over the 30 year mark. He is currently the second ranked catcher for 2017, and even presents a case for the number one spot over Buster Posey in his new uniform. Giving up a top ten pick to keep a catcher never seems easy, but with the elite offensive ability, Lucroy still rolls into the season as the third best keeper value behind the plate.




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